Analysis of the climatic signal in the South Dome,Greenland ice core

The purpose of this research was to investigate the statistical relationship between an oxygen isotope chronology from southern Greenland and climatic variables recorded at a coastal village. The response of the oxygen isotope time series to monthly temperature and precipitation data was calculated using a combination of principal components factor analysis and multiple regression analysis. Orthogonal eigenvectors extracted from 35 yr of climatic data reliably explained 59% of the temporal variance in mean annual oxygen isotope values. The response functions demonstrate an apparent seasonal reversal in the relationship between oxygen isotope values and temperature, with the response varying between a positive (direct) relationship in winter, spring, and autumn, and a negative (indirect) relationship in summer. The results, and their implications, are shown to be useful in the historical climatic reconstruction of the South Greenland region.     

Impact of freshwater discharge from the Greenland ice sheet on North Atlantic climate variability

Using a coupled ocean–atmosphere general circulation model, we investigated the impact of Greenland ice sheet melting on North Atlantic climate variability. The positive-degree day (PDD) method was incorporated into the model to control continental ice melting (PDD run). Models with and without the PDD method produce a realistic pattern of North Atlantic sea surface temperature (SST) variability that fluctuates from decadal to multidecadal periods. However, the interdecadal variability in PDD run is significantly dominated in the longer time scale compared to that in the run without PDD method. The main oscillatory feature in these experiments likely resembles the density-driven oscillatory mode. A reduction in the ocean density over the subpolar Atlantic results in suppression of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC), leading to a cold SST due to a weakening of northward heat transport. The decreased surface evaporation associated with the cold SST further reduces the ocean density and thus, simultaneously acts as a positive feedback mechanism. The southward meridional current associated with the suppressed AMOC causes a positive tendency in the ocean density through density advection, which accounts for the phase transition of this oscillatory mode. The Greenland ice melting process reduces the mean meridional current and meridional density gradient because of additional fresh water flux, which suppress the delayed negative feedback due to meridional density advection. As a result, the oscillation period becomes longer and the transition is more delayed.     

A model-based study of ice and freshwater transport variability along both sides of Greenland

We investigate some aspects of the variability of the Arctic freshwater content during the 1965–2002 period using the DRAKKAR eddy admitting global ocean/sea-ice model (12 km resolution in the Arctic). A comparison with recent mooring sections shows that the model realistically represents the major advective exchanges with the Arctic basin, through Bering, Fram and Davis Straits, and the Barents Sea. This allows the separate contributions of the inflows and outflows across each section to be quantified. In the model, the Arctic freshwater content variability is explained by the sea-ice flux at Fram and the combined variations of ocean freshwater inflow (at Bering) and outflow (at Fram and Davis). At all routes, except trough Fram Strait, the freshwater transport variability is mainly accounted for by the liquid component, with small contributions from the sea-ice flux. The ocean freshwater transport variability through both Davis and Fram is controlled by the variability of the export branch (Baffin Island Current and East Greenland Current, respectively), the variability of the inflow branches playing a minor role. We examine the respective role of velocity and salinity fluctuations in the variability of the ocean freshwater transport. Fram and Davis Straits offer a striking contrast in this regard. Freshwater transport variations across Davis Strait are completely determined by the variations of the total volume flux (0.91 correlation). On the other hand, the freshwater transport through Fram Strait depends both on variations of volume transport and salinity. As a result, there is no significant correlation between the variability of freshwater flux at Fram and Davis, although the volume transports on each side of Greenland are strongly anti-correlated (−0.84). Contrary to Davis Strait, the salinity of water carried by the East Greenland Current through Fram Strait varies strongly due to the ice-ocean flux north of Greenland.     

Multi-decadal thermohaline variability in an ocean–atmosphere general circulation model

A century scale integration of a near-global atmosphere–ocean model is used to study the multi-decadal variability of the thermohaline circulation (THC) in the Atlantic. The differences between the coupled and two supplementary ocean-only experiments suggest that a significant component of this variability is controlled by either a collective behavior of the ocean and the atmosphere, particularly in the form of air-sea heat exchange, or sub-monthly random noise present in the coupled system. Possible physical mechanisms giving rise to the mode of this THC variability are discussed. The SST anomaly associated with the THC variability resembles an interdecadal SST pattern extracted from observational data, as well as a pattern associated with the 50–60 year THC variability in the GFDL coupled model. In each case, a warming throughout the subpolar North Atlantic but concentrated along the Gulf Stream and its extension is indicated when the THC is strong. Concomitantly, surface air temperature has positive anomalies over the warmer ocean, with the strongest signal located downwind of the warmest SST anomalies and intruding into the western Eurasian Continent. In addition to the thermal response, there are also changes in the atmospheric flow pattern. More specifically, an anomalous northerly wind develops over the Labrador Sea when the THC is stronger than normal, suggesting a local primacy of the atmospheric forcing in the thermohaline perturbation structure.     

Recent southern Indian Ocean climate variability inferred from a Law Dome ice core: new insights for the interpretation of coastal Antarctic isotopic records

Stable isotopes in water have been measured along a very high accumulation ice core from Law Dome on the east Antarctic coast. These enable a detailed comparison of the isotopic records over sixty years (1934–1992) with local (Antarctic station data) and remote meteorological observations (atmospheric reanalyses and sea-surface temperature estimates) on a seasonal to inter-annual time scale. Using both observations and isotopic atmospheric general circulation model (GCM) results, we quantify the relationships between stable isotopes (d ¹⁸O, dD and deuterium excess; d = dD –8 × d ¹⁸O) with site and source temperature at seasonal and decadal time scales, showing the large imprint of source conditions on Law Dome isotopes. These calibrations provide new insights for the quantitative interpretation of temporal isotopic fluctuations from coastal Antarctic ice cores. An abrupt change in the local meridional atmospheric circulation is clearly identified from Law Dome deuterium excess during the 1970s and analysed using GCM simulations.     

The glacial inception as recorded in the NorthGRIP Greenland ice core: timing, structure and associated abrupt temperature changes

The mechanisms involved in the glacial inception are still poorly constrained due to a lack of high resolution and cross-dated climate records at various locations. Using air isotopic measurements in the recently drilled NorthGRIP ice core, we show that no evidence exists for stratigraphic disturbance of the climate record of the last glacial inception (∼123–100 kyears BP) encompassing Dansgaard–Oeschger events (DO) 25, 24 and 23, even if we lack sufficient resolution to completely rule out disturbance over DO 25. We quantify the rapid surface temperature variability over DO 23 and 24 with associated warmings of 10±2.5 and 16±2.5°C, amplitudes which mimic those observed in full glacial conditions. We use records of δ¹⁸O of O₂ to propose a common timescale for the NorthGRIP and the Antarctic Vostok ice cores, with a maximum uncertainty of 2,500 years, and to examine the interhemispheric sequence of events over this period. After a synchronous North–South temperature decrease, the onset of rapid events is triggered in the North through DO 25. As for later events, DO 24 and 23 have a clear Antarctic counterpart which does not seem to be the case for the very first abrupt warming (DO 25). This information, when added to intermediate levels of CO₂ and to the absence of clear ice rafting associated with DO 25, highlights the uniqueness of this first event, while DO 24 and 23 appear similar to typical full glacial DO events.     

Thresholds for irreversible decline of the Greenland ice sheet

The Greenland ice sheet will decline in volume in a warmer climate. If a sufficiently warm climate is maintained for a few thousand years, the ice sheet will be completely melted. This raises the question of whether the decline would be reversible: would the ice sheet regrow if the climate cooled down? To address this question, we conduct a number of experiments using a climate model and a high-resolution ice-sheet model. The experiments are initialised with ice sheet states obtained from various points during its decline as simulated in a high-CO₂ scenario, and they are then forced with a climate simulated for pre-industrial greenhouse gas concentrations, to determine the possible trajectories of subsequent ice sheet evolution. These trajectories are not the reverse of the trajectory during decline. They converge on three different steady states. The original ice-sheet volume can be regained only if the volume has not fallen below a threshold of irreversibility, which lies between 80 and 90% of the original value. Depending on the degree of warming and the sensitivity of the climate and the ice-sheet, this point of no return could be reached within a few hundred years, sooner than CO₂ and global climate could revert to a pre-industrial state, and in that case global sea level rise of at least 1.3 m would be irreversible. An even larger irreversible change to sea level rise of 5 m may occur if ice sheet volume drops below half of its current size. The set of steady states depends on the CO₂ concentration. Since we expect the results to be quantitatively affected by resolution and other aspects of model formulation, we would encourage similar investigations with other models.     

Natural climatic variability and the Norse settlements in Greenland

A multi-millennial simulation with the CSIRO Mark 2 coupled global climatic model has been used to determine whether climatic conditions approximate to those experienced by the medieval Norse settlers in Greenland could be identified. The aim of this analysis was to see whether such conditions could be replicated by the natural climatic variability in this unforced simulation, in order to counteract claims that the current observed global warming is merely another example of this type of climatic regime. This view has been expressed in the media in an attempt to refute the existence of a CO₂-induced global warming. A 291-year period of above-average temperature followed by a 41-year cooler period were identified in one millennium of the simulation, and subsequently used as an analogue of conditions representative of the time of the Norse settlements. Considerable interannual variability existed in both these periods, but with noticeable positive and negative surface temperature anomalies in the warm and cold periods respectively. Thus the warm period was not a time of uniform benign conditions. Above-average precipitation was also associated with the warm period, and these climatic conditions would have enhanced pasture growth and hay production (the only crop the Norse produced) thereby sustaining the livelihood of the Norse Greenlanders. The climatic conditions associated with the cold period in the model were probably sufficient to limit the survival prospects of the settlers, especially when other, probably more critical, deleterious factors are taken into account. The temperature anomalies replicated in the simulation are similar to the limited proxy data, but may be smaller in magnitude: nevertheless they appear to be sufficiently large to have affected the viability of the Norse Greenlanders. After considering possible climatic mechanisms that could have contributed to these warm and cold periods it was concluded that they are simply a consequence of stochastic influences generated by nonlinear processes in the simulation. Thus this simulation provides no support for the contention that the current global warming is a manifestation of conditions prevailing during the Norse settlements in Greenland.     

Gas phase measurements of hydrogen peroxide in Greenland and their meaning for the interpretation of H2O2 records in ice cores

The gas phase concentration of hydrogen peroxide at Summit, Central Greenland, has been measured continuously during June/July 1990 using a coil scrubber technique combined with liquid phase fluorometry. The concentrations ranged between 0.3 ppbv and 3.5 ppbv, which is considerably higher than expected from model calculations and can be explained by low deposition rates. The record shows pronounced diurnal variations with minimum concentrations during night and maximum concentrations in the afternoon. The nocturnal minima can be explained by scavenging of H₂O₂ by hoarfrost. The scavenging mechanisms of H₂O₂ by snow and the redistribution of H₂O₂ during firnification are discussed. There is indirect evidence, that H₂O₂ is uniformly distributed in the ice lattice and that the fractionation between H₂O₂ and H₂O is small during diffusional crystal growth from the vapor phase (co-condensation).     

Holocene atmosphere-ocean interactions: records from Greenland and the Aegean Sea

We compare paleoclimate proxy records from central Greenland and the Aegean Sea to offer new insights into the causes, timing, and mechanisms of Holocene atmosphere-ocean interactions. A direct atmospheric link is revealed between Aegean sea surface temperature (SST) and high-latitude climate. The major Holocene events in our proxies of Aegean SST and winter/spring intensity of the Siberian High (GISP2 K⁺ record) follow an ~2300 year spacing, recognised also in the (¹⁴C record and in worldwide Holocene glacier advance phases, suggesting a solar modulation of climate. We argue that the primary atmospheric response involved decadal-centennial fluctuations in the meridional pressure gradient, driving Aegean SST events via changes in the strength, duration, and/or frequency of northerly polar/continental air outbreaks over the basin. The observed natural variability should be accounted for in predictions of future climate change, and our timeframe for the Aegean climate events in addition provides an independent chronostratigraphic argument to Middle Eastern archaeological studies.     

Climatic interpretation of the recently extended Vostok ice records

A new ice core drilled at the Russian station of Vostok in Antarctica reached 2755 m depth in September 1993. At this depth, the glaciological time scale provides an age of 260 ky BP (±25). We refine this estimate using records of dust and deuterium in the ice and of ¹⁸O of O₂ in the entrapped air. ¹⁸O of O₂ is highly correlated with insolation over the last two climatic cycles if one assumes that the EGT chronology overestimates the increase of age with depth by 12% for ages older than 112 ky BP. This modified age-depth scale gives an age of 244 ky BP at 2755 m depth and agrees well with the age-depth scale of Walbroeck et al. (in press) derived by orbital tuning of the Vostok D record. We discuss the temperature interpretation of this latter record accounting for the influence of the origin of the ice and using information derived from deuterium-excess data. We conclude that the warmest period of stage 7 was likely as warm as today in Antarctica. A remarkable feature of the Vostok record is the high level of similarity of proxy temperature records for the last two climatic cycles (stages 6 and 7 versus stages 1–5). This similarity has no equivalent in other paleorecords.     

On the turbulence structure in the stable boundary layer over the Greenland ice sheet

Turbulence measurements from a 30 m tower in the stably stratifiedboundary layer over the Greenland ice sheet are analyzed. The observationsinclude profile and eddy-correlation measurements at various levels. Atfirst, the analysis of the turbulence data from the lowest level (2 m aboveground) shows that the linear form of the non-dimensional wind profile(m) is in good agreement with the observations for z/L <0.4, whereL represents the Obukhov length. A linear regression yieldsm=1+5.8z/L. The non-dimensional temperature profile (h) at the2m level shows no tendency to increase with increasing stability. The datafrom the upper levels of the tower are analyzed in terms of both localscaling and surface-layer scaling. The m and the h values show atendency to level off at large stability (z/>0.4) where represents the local Obukhov length. Hence, the linear form of the functions is no longer appropriate under such conditions. The bestcorrespondence to the data can be achieved when using the expression ofBeljaars and Holtslag for m and h. The vertical profiles of theturbulent fluxes, the wind velocity variances and temperature variance arealso determined. The momentum flux profile and the profiles of wind speedvariances are in general agreement with other observations if a welldeveloped low-level wind maximum occurs, and the height of this maximum isused as a height scale.     

Katabatic wind profiles over the Greenland ice sheet: observation and modelling

Profiles of wind and temperature have been observedabove the Greenland ice sheet, 90 km from its westernmargin, in July 1991. The terrain slopes downward tothe west. Measurements were performed with instrumentson a 30 m mast, combined with a Doppler SODAR and aRASS. Whereas the surface is usually at the meltingpoint, the temperatures in the free atmosphere areabove freezing. The depth of the boundary layer, in whichthe wind turns to the free atmosphere direction, is notmuch more than 100 m. The surface wind is always aboutfrom the southeast (hence with a downslope component),whereas winds from the southwest (with an upslopecomponent) often occur at the 100 m level.Mixing length profiles for momentum were estimatedby comparison of calculated and observed windprofiles. A good accordance between calculated andobserved wind speed was obtained. The neutralmixing length had a maximum of only a few metres, whichwas approached already at low height. The limiting valueis proportional to the 0.7-th power of the Froudenumber times a length scale obtained from thetemperature profile.