Northern Hemisphere midlatitude cyclone variability in GCM simulations with different ocean representations

The impact of different ocean models or sea surface temperature (SST) and sea-ice concentrations on cyclone tracks in the Northern Hemisphere midlatitudes is determined within a hierarchy of model simulations. A reference simulation with the coupled atmosphere ocean circulation model ECHAM/HOPE is compared with simulations using ECHAM and three simplified ocean and sea-ice representations: (1) a variable depth mixed layer (ML) ocean, (2) forcing by varying SST and sea-ice, and (3) with climatological SST and sea-ice; the latter two are from the coupled ECHAM/HOPE integration. The reference simulation reproduces the observed cyclone tracks. The cyclones are tracked automatically by a standard routine and the variability of individual cyclone trajectories within the storm tracks is determined by a cluster approach. In the forced simulation with varying SST, the geographical distribution and the statistics of the cyclones are not altered compared to the coupled reference simulation. In the ML- and the climatological simulation, deviations of the mean cyclone distribution are found which occur mainly in the North Pacific, and can partially be traced back to missing El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) variability. The climatological experiment is superior to the ML-experiment. The variability of the individual cyclone trajectories, as determined by the cluster analysis, reveals the same types and frequencies of propagation directions for all four representations of the lower boundary. The largest discrepancies for the cluster occupations are found for the climatological and the ML-simulation.     

Underestimated relationship between westerly wind bursts and ENSO in CMIP6 models

观测表明,热带太平洋的西风爆发(WWBs)在厄尔尼诺南方涛动(ENSO)的发生,发展和多样性中起着关键作用.因此,在耦合模式中真实地再现WWBs对于改进ENSO的模拟和预测有重要意义.在本研究中,作者发现CMIP6的耦合模式的集合平均能很好地再现了热带太平洋WWB发生频率的纬向分布及其年际变动.然而,大多数CMIP6模型极大低估了WWB和ENSO的线性关系.这可能是因为大多数CMIP6模式里海气耦合强度低于观测:海气耦合强度与WWB-ENSO关系的模式间相关系数高达0.91.     

ENSO forcing of the Northern Hemisphere climate in a large ensemble of model simulations based on a very long SST record

The January–March (JFM) climate response of the Northern Hemisphere atmosphere to observed sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies for the period 1855–2002 is analysed from a 35-member ensemble made with SPEEDY, an atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM) of intermediate complexity. The model was run at the T30-L8 resolution, and initial conditions and the early stage of model runs differ among ensemble members in the definition of tropical diabatic heating. SST anomalies in the Niño3.4 region were categorised into five classes extending from strong cold to strong warm. Composites based on such a categorisation enabled an analysis of the influence of the tropical Pacific SST on the Northern Hemisphere atmospheric circulation with an emphasis on the Pacific-North America (PNA) and the North Atlantic-Europe (NAE) regions. As expected, the strongest signal was detected over the PNA region. An “asymmetry” in the model response was found for the opposite polarity of the Niño3.4 index; however, this asymmetry stems mainly from the difference in the amplitude of model response rather than from the phase shift between responses to warm and cold El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events. The extratropical signal associated with warm ENSO events was found to be stronger than that related to cold events. The results also reveal that, for the PNA region, the amplitude of the response is positively correlated with the strength of ENSO, irrespective of the sign of ENSO. With almost no phase shift between model responses to El Niño and La Niña, the linear component of the response is much stronger than the non-linear component. Although the model climate response over the NAE region is much weaker than that over the PNA region, some striking similarities with the PNA are found. Both sea level pressure and precipitation responses are positively correlated with the strength of ENSO. This is not true for the 200-hPa geopotential heights, and no plausible explanation for such a result could be offered. An appreciable linear component in model response over the NAE was also found. The model results over the NAE region agree reasonably well with observational studies. An additional analysis of the remote atmospheric response to very weak ENSO forcing (defined from the interval between 0.5σ and 1.0σ of the interannual variance) was also carried out. A discernible model response in the Northern Hemisphere to such a weak SST forcing was found.     

南半球前期环流异常与重庆汛期降水的关系研究

利用1960-2006年近47年重庆34个测站、西南地区96个国家级基本站的汛期(6～8月)降水量以及美国NCEP/NCAR和欧洲ECMWF的全球再分析资料,研究了重庆汛期降水与南半球大气环流异常的关系.结果表明,南半球中高纬度(40°～60°S)1～5月的环流异常与当年重庆汛期降水有显著关系.在此基础上定义了一个用于...     

东风和西风切变环境下西北太平洋热带气旋快速增强特征的对比

利用1980-2009年美国联合台风警报中心(Joint Typhoon Warning Center,JTWC)整编的热带气旋(tropical cyclone,TC)最佳路径资料,定义西北太平洋TC 24 h强度变化达到总体样本96%累积概率的变化值,即35 kn作为TC快速增强的阈值。根据NCEP/NCAR资料将200~850 hPa之间 TC所处的环境纬向风切变(wind shear,WS)划分为东风切变(east wind shear,EWS)和西风切变(west wind shear,WWS)。对比了EWS和WWS环境下快速增强热带气旋(rapid intensification tropical cyclones,RITC)的统计和大尺度环境合成场特征,结果表明,近70%的TC快速增强发生在东风切变环境下。TC快速增强概率最高的月份在9月,初始强度区间为[65,75) kn。大的EWS下,850 hPa有来自南海地区的西南气流为RITC输送充沛水汽,500 hPa、200 hPa高压势力强但脊线位置偏北,RITC流出层温度低于-79 ℃,垂直结构上底层的辐合与高层的辐散也相对较强。大WWS下,850 hPa的水汽主要为来自西北太平洋的东南气流,500 hPa副热带高压断裂为几个分散的中心,200 hPa辐散相对较弱,RITC合成位置位于副热带高压西北侧的西风气流,流出层温度约-76 ℃。     

Wind-driven changes in Southern Ocean residual circulation, ocean carbon reservoirs and atmospheric CO2

The effect of idealized wind-driven circulation changes in the Southern Ocean on atmospheric CO₂ and the ocean carbon inventory is investigated using a suite of coarse-resolution, global coupled ocean circulation and biogeochemistry experiments with parameterized eddy activity and only modest changes in surface buoyancy forcing, each experiment integrated for 5,000 years. A positive correlation is obtained between the meridional overturning or residual circulation in the Southern Ocean and atmospheric CO₂: stronger or northward-shifted westerly winds in the Southern Hemisphere result in increased residual circulation, greater upwelling of carbon-rich deep waters and oceanic outgassing, which increases atmospheric pCO₂ by ～20 μatm; weaker or southward-shifted winds lead to the opposing result. The ocean carbon inventory in our model varies through contrasting changes in the saturated, disequilibrium and biogenic (soft-tissue and carbonate) reservoirs, each varying by O(10–100) PgC, all of which contribute to the net anomaly in atmospheric CO₂. Increased residual overturning deepens the global pycnocline, warming the upper ocean and decreasing the saturated carbon reservoir. Increased upwelling of carbon- and nutrient-rich deep waters and inefficient biological activity results in subduction of unutilized nutrients into the ocean interior, decreasing the biogenic carbon reservoir of intermediate and mode waters ventilating the Northern Hemisphere, and making the disequilibrium carbon reservoir more positive in the mode waters due to the reduced residence time at the surface. Wind-induced changes in the model carbon inventory are dominated by the response of the global pycnocline, although there is an additional abyssal response when the peak westerly winds change their latitude, altering their proximity to Drake Passage and changing the depth extent of the southward return flow of the overturning: a northward shift of the westerly winds isolates dense isopycnals, allowing biogenic carbon to accumulate in the deep ocean of the Southern Hemisphere, while a southward shift shoals dense isopycnals that outcrop in the Southern Ocean and reduces the biogenic carbon store in the deep ocean.     

Relationships between the Extratropical ENSO Precursor and Leading Modes of Atmospheric Variability in the Southern Hemisphere

Previous studies suggest that the atmospheric precursor of El Ni ?no–Southern Oscillation(ENSO) in the extratropical Southern Hemisphere(SH) might trigger a quadrapole sea surface temperature anomaly(SSTA) in the South Pacific and subsequently influence the following ENSO. Such a quadrapole SSTA is referred to as the South Pacific quadrapole(SPQ).The present study investigated the relationships between the atmospheric precursor signal of ENSO and leading modes of atmospheric variability in the extratropical SH [including the SH annular mode(SAM), the first Pacific–South America(PSA1) mode, and the second Pacific–South America(PSA2) mode]. The results showed that the atmospheric precursor signal in the extratropical SH basically exhibits a barotropic wavenumber-3 structure over the South Pacific and is significantly correlated with the SAM and the PSA2 mode during austral summer. Nevertheless, only the PSA2 mode was found to be a precursor for the following ENSO. It leads the SPQ-like SSTA by around one month, while the SAM and the PSA1 mode do not show any obvious linkage with either ENSO or the SPQ. This suggests that the PSA2 mode may provide a bridge between the preceding circulation anomalies over the extratropical SH and the following ENSO through the SPQ-like SSTA.     

华南后汛期降雨与南极海冰变异和南半球大气环流异常的关系

利用１９７３～１９８９年南极海冰北界资料研究海冰变异对华南不同区域后汛期降雨的影响,认为：华南后汛期降雨与南极海冰和南半球大气环流间存在遥相关显著性。分析海冰与南半球大气环流、副高、热带气旋、南亚高压等系统间的相关关系表明,海冰变异是通过影响这些系统,而对后汛期降雨产生影响作用的。其中上年９月罗斯海海冰、７月全南极海冰和威德尔海海冰的作用更明显。当年１月低纬气旋数和前期南美深对流区强弱与广西后汛期降雨关系显著。     

青藏高原夏季热力状态和南半球大气环流的可能联系

本文通过对观测和再分析数据采用最大协方差分析以及回归、合成等分析方法,研究了青藏高原夏季地表气温与南半球大气环流之间的遥相关关系。结果表明,前期(4月)南半球极地—中高纬度大气环流呈现负位势高度异常、较低纬度印度洋—西太平洋区域呈现正位势高度异常时,高原中部和东部大部分区域夏季出现暖异常。在上述遥相关中,印度洋—西太平洋海温异常可能起到了重要的中间桥梁作用。在高原夏季温度偏高的年份,前期跨赤道的印度洋—西太平洋海温也持续偏暖,带来的海陆热力对比减小、经向跨赤道气流减弱有利于削弱夏季的季风环流,使得高原夏季降水偏少,有利于形成高原夏季的暖异常。在这一高原气温—南半球大气环流的遥相关关系中,4月南半球的大气位势高度场异常和与印度洋—西太平洋海温异常相关的异常高度场分布也十分相似。这一前期的跨赤道区域海温异常与南半球中高纬度位势高度场异常的因果关系仍有待进一步揭示。     

南半球西风指数变化与中国夏季降水的关系

根据NCEP/NCAR提供的1950～2007年南半球12～2月、6～8月500 hPa位势高度的月平均再分析资料,采用合成分析方法讨论与中国夏季3类雨型相对应的南半球500 hPa距平高度场的分布特征;运用多变量方差分析方法确定12～2月和6～8月与3类雨型相对应的南半球西风指数波动关键区A;分析关键区A的西风波动与中国夏季降水之间的关系;寻找南、北半球西风相互作用影响中国夏季降水分布的可能途径。分析表明,6～8月与3类雨型相对应的南半球500 hPa距平高度场显示出不同的距平分布形式,并存在显著差异区在（35°N～50°N,35°E～80°E）。12～2月南半球的西风指数变化关键区A在22.5°W～2.5°W,6～8月关键区A在10°E～55°E。南半球关键区A的西风指数强弱变化与中国夏季降水的关系密切,且12~2月南半球的西风波动对北半球夏季关键区的西风环流的变化有预测意义,而前期南半球关键区A的平均西风指数与北半球夏季高度场的显著负相关区在贝加尔湖。南、北半球大气环流经向传播是两半球西风相互作用的可能途径,前期南半球的异常西风使夏季贝加尔湖的平均槽强度变化,进而造成北半球关键区的西风环流异常,从而影响中国夏季雨型的分布。     

European climate in the late twenty-first century: regional simulations with two driving global models and two forcing scenarios

A basic analysis is presented for a series of regional climate change simulations that were conducted by the Swedish Rossby Centre and contribute to the PRUDENCE (Prediction of Regional scenarios and Uncertainties for Defining EuropeaN Climate change risks and Effects) project. For each of the two driving global models HadAM3H and ECHAM4/OPYC3, a 30-year control run and two 30-year scenario runs (based on the SRES A2 and B2 emission scenarios) were made with the regional model. In this way, four realizations of climate change from 1961–1990 to 2071–2100 were obtained. The simulated changes are larger for the A2 than the B2 scenario (although with few qualitative differences) and in most cases in the ECHAM4/OPYC3-driven (RE) than in the HadAM3H-driven (RH) regional simulations. In all the scenario runs, the warming in northern Europe is largest in winter or late autumn. In central and southern Europe, the warming peaks in summer when it locally reaches 10 °C in the RE-A2 simulation and 6–7 °C in the RH-A2 and RE-B2 simulations. The four simulations agree on a general increase in precipitation in northern Europe especially in winter and on a general decrease in precipitation in southern and central Europe in summer, but the magnitude and the geographical patterns of the change differ markedly between RH and RE. This reflects very different changes in the atmospheric circulation during the winter half-year, which also lead to quite different simulated changes in windiness. All four simulations show a large increase in the lowest minimum temperatures in northern, central and eastern Europe, most likely due to reduced snow cover. Extreme daily precipitation increases even in most of those areas where the mean annual precipitation decreases.     

A reexamination of the valley wind system in the Alpine Inn Valley with numerical simulations

Summary This paper presents idealized numerical simulations of the valley wind circulation in the Alpine Inn Valley, which are compared with existing data and are used to improve our dynamical understanding of the valley wind. The simulations have been performed with the Penn State/NCAR mesoscale model MM5. They use a high-resolution realistic topography but idealized large-scale conditions without any synoptic forcing to focus on the thermally induced valley wind system. The comparison with the available observations shows that this simplified set-up is sufficient to reproduce the essential features of the valley wind.The results show that the tributaries of the Inn Valley have a considerable impact on the along-valley mass fluxes associated with the valley wind circulation. The upvalley mass flux is found to increase where tributaries enter the Inn Valley from the north, that is, from the direction where the Alpine foreland is located. On the other hand, the upvalley mass flux is reduced at the junctions with southern tributaries because part of the upvalley flow is deflected into these tributaries. For the downvalley flow, the situation is essentially reversed, but the influence of the valley geometry on the flow structure is larger than for the upvalley flow. The most important feature is a lateral valley contraction near the valley exit into the Alpine foreland. It reduces the downvalley mass flux at low levels, so that the wind maximum in the interior of the valley is shifted to a fairly large distance from the ground. North of the valley contraction, however, the downvalley flow strongly accelerates and forms a pronounced low-level jet. A dynamical analysis indicates that this acceleration can be interpreted as a transition from subcritical to supercritical hydraulic flow. Another interesting feature is that the low-level jet maintains its structure for several tenths of kilometres into the Alpine foreland. This appears to be related to the fact that the lateral wind shear on the flanks of the jet is associated with a strong dipole of potential vorticity (PV). Due to the conservation properties of the PV, the downstream advection of the PV dipole leads to the formation of a band-like feature that decays fairly slowly.     

An investigation of the small ice cap instability in the Southern Hemisphere with a coupled atmosphere-sea ice-ocean-terrestrial ice model

 A simple climate model has been developed to investigate the existence of the small ice cap instability in the Southern Hemisphere. The model consists of four coupled components: an atmospheric energy balance model, a thermodynamic snow-sea ice model, an oceanic mixed layer model and a terrestrial ice model. Results from a series of experiments involving different degrees of coupling in the model show that the instability appears only in those cases when an explicit representation of the Antarctic ice sheet is not included in the model. In order to determine which physical processes in the ice sheet model lead to a stabilization of the system we have conducted several sensitivity experiments in each of which a given ice sheet process has been removed from the control formulation of the model. Results from these experiments suggest that the feedback between the elevation of the ice sheet and the snow accumulation-ice ablation balance is responsible for the disappearance of the small ice cap instability in our simulation. In the model, the mass balance of the ice sheet depends on the air temperature at sea level corrected for altitude and it is, therefore, a function of surface elevation. This altitude-mass balance feedback effectively decouples the location of the ice edge from any specific sea level isotherm, thus decreasing the model sensitivity to the albedo-temperature feedback, which is responsible for the appearance of the instability. It is also shown that the elevation-radiative cooling feedback tends to stabilize the ice sheet, although its effect does not seem to be strong enough to remove the instability. Another interesting result is that for those simulations which include the terrestrial ice model with elevation-dependent surface mass balance, hysteresis is exhibited, where for a given level of external forcing, two stable solutions with different, non-zero ice-sheet volume and area and different air and ocean temperature fields occur. However, no unstable transition between the two solutions is ever observed. Our results suggest that the small ice cap instability mechanism could be unsuitable for explaining the inception of glaciation in Antarctica. Received: 14 April 1997 / Accepted: 22 October 1997     

Teleconnections of the sea surface temperature in the indian ocean with sea surface temperature in the eastern equatorial pacific,and with the 500 hPa geopotential height field in the Northern Hemisphere

The observational data of global sea surface temperature and the 500 hPa geopotential height field in the Northern Hemisphere are used to get two teleconnection patterns. The time interval of the data is from January 1950 to December 1979. The results show that the sea surface temperature anomalies in the Indian Ocean have evident positive correlation with the SSTA in the eastern Pacific and obvious teleconnection with the 500 hPa geopotential height field in the Northern Hemisphere.     

Large-eddy simulations of thermally forced circulations in the convective boundary layer. Part I: A small-scale circulation with zero wind

We have conducted large-eddy simulations (LES) of the atmospheric boundary layer with surface heat flux variations on a spatial scale comparable to the boundary layer depth.We first ran a simulation with a horizontally homogeneous heat flux. In general the results are similar to those of previous large-eddy simulations. The model simulates a field of convective eddies having approximately the correct velocity and spatial scales, and with the crucial property that kinetic energy is transported vigorously upwards through the middle levels. However, the resolved temperature variance is only about half what is observed in the laboratory or the atmosphere. This deficiency — which is shared by many other large-eddy simulations — has dynamic implications, particularly in the pressure/temperature interaction terms of the heat flux budget. Recent simulations by other workers at much higher resolution than ours appear to be more realistic in this respect.The surface heat flux perturbations were one-dimensional and sinusoidal with a wavelength equal to 1.3 times the boundary-layer depth. The mean wind was zero. Results were averaged over several simulations and over time. There is a mean circulation, with ascent over the heat flux maxima (vertical velocity ~0.1w _*) and descent over the heat flux minima. Turbulence is consistently stronger over the heat flux maxima. The horizontal velocity variance components (calculated with respect to the horizontal average) become unequal, implying that convective eddies are elongated parallel to the surface heat flux perturbations.A consideration of the budgets for temperature and velocity suggests several simplifying concepts.The research reported in this paper was conducted while the first author was on study leave at Colorado State University.     

Projecting South Asian summer precipitation in CMIP3 models: A comparison of the simulations with and without black carbon

Considering the importance of black carbon (BC), this study began by comparing the 20th century simulation of South Asian summer climate in IPCC CMIP3, based on the scenario of models with and without BC. Generally, the multi-model mean of the models that include BC reproduced the observed climate relatively better than those that did not. Then, the 21st century South Asian summer precipitation was projected based on the IPCC CMIP3 projection simulations. The projected precipitation in the present approach exhibited a considerable difference from the multimodel ensemble mean (MME) of IPCC AR4 projection simulations, and also from the MME of the models that ignore the effect of BC. In particular, the present projection exhibited a dry anomaly over the central Indian Peninsula, sandwiched between wet conditions on the southern and northern sides of Pakistan and India, rather than homogeneous wet conditions as seen in the MME of IPCC AR4. Thus, the spatial pattern of South Asian summer rainfall in the future may be more complicated than previously thought.     

Flow splitting at the bifurcation between two valleys: idealized simulations in comparison with Mesoscale Alpine Programme observations

Summary This paper investigates the characteristics of channelled airflow in the vicinity of a junction of three idealized valleys (one valley carrying the incoming flow and two tributaries carrying the outflow), using a two-dimensional single-layer shallow water model. Particular attention is given to the flow splitting occurring at the junction. Nondimensionalized, the model depends on the valley geometry, the Reynolds number, which is related to the eddy viscosity, and on the difference of the hydrostatic pressure imposed at the exit of the tributaries. At the spatial scale considered in this study, the Rossby number relating the inertial and Coriolis forces is always larger than 1, implying that the effect of earth rotation can be neglected to a first approximation. The analysis of the flow structure within the three valleys as well as the calculation of the split ratio (fraction of the air flow diverted into one of the two downstream valleys with respect to the total mass flux in the upstream valley) show that (i) the flow pattern depends strongly on the Reynolds number while the split ratio is comparatively insensitive; (ii) the valley geometry and the difference between the upstream and downstream hydrostatic pressures affect the flow pattern, the location of the split point and the split ratio; (iii) the relative contribution of flow deflection by the sidewalls and the blocking/splitting mechanism differs between the settings of a “Y-shape” valley and a “T-shape” valley. Quantitative comparison of the present results with numerical simulations of realistic cases and with observations collected in the region of the Rhine and Seez valleys (Switzerland) (“Y-shape” valley) and in the region of the Inn and Wipp valleys (Austria) (“T-shape” valley) during the Mesoscale Alpine Programme (MAP) field experiment shows good agreement provided that the normalized valley depth NΔH/U_u significantly exceeds 1, i.e., when “flow around” is expected. A structural disagreement between the idealized simulations and the observed wind field is found only when NΔH/U_u ≃ 1, that is, in the “flow over” regime. This shows that the dimensionless valley depth is indeed a good indicator for flow splitting, implying that the stratification is a key player in reality.