The atmospheric component of the Mediterranean Sea water budget in a WRF multi-physics ensemble and observations

The use of high resolution atmosphere–ocean coupled regional climate models to study possible future climate changes in the Mediterranean Sea requires an accurate simulation of the atmospheric component of the water budget (i.e., evaporation, precipitation and runoff). A specific configuration of the version 3.1 of the weather research and forecasting (WRF) regional climate model was shown to systematically overestimate the Mediterranean Sea water budget mainly due to an excess of evaporation (~1,450 mm yr^?1) compared with observed estimations (~1,150 mm yr^?1). In this article, a 70-member multi-physics ensemble is used to try to understand the relative importance of various sub-grid scale processes in the Mediterranean Sea water budget and to evaluate its representation by comparing simulated results with observed-based estimates. The physics ensemble was constructed by performing 70 1-year long simulations using version 3.3 of the WRF model by combining six cumulus, four surface/planetary boundary layer and three radiation schemes. Results show that evaporation variability across the multi-physics ensemble (～10 % of the mean evaporation) is dominated by the choice of the surface layer scheme that explains more than ～70 % of the total variance and that the overestimation of evaporation in WRF simulations is generally related with an overestimation of surface exchange coefficients due to too large values of the surface roughness parameter and/or the simulation of too unstable surface conditions. Although the influence of radiation schemes on evaporation variability is small (～13 % of the total variance), radiation schemes strongly influence exchange coefficients and vertical humidity gradients near the surface due to modifications of temperature lapse rates. The precipitation variability across the physics ensemble (～35 % of the mean precipitation) is dominated by the choice of both cumulus (～55 % of the total variance) and planetary boundary layer (～32 % of the total variance) schemes with a strong regional dependence. Most members of the ensemble underestimate total precipitation amounts with biases as large as 250 mm yr^?1 over the whole Mediterranean Sea compared with ERA Interim reanalysis mainly due to an underestimation of the number of wet days. The larger number of dry days in simulations is associated with a deficit in the activation of cumulus schemes. Both radiation and planetary boundary layer schemes influence precipitation through modifications on the available water vapor in the boundary layer generally tied with changes in evaporation.     

Sulfur budget above the Eastern Mediterranean: relative contribution of anthropogenic and biogenic sources

To access the relative contribution of anthropogenic and biogenic sulfur sources to the sulfur budget in the Eastern Mediterranean, an area characterized by very high nss-     levels, measurements of both wet and dry deposition of sulfur were performed at a remote area on the island of Crete (Finokalia) during a 3-yr period (1996–1999). The estimation of dry deposition is based on both gaseous sulfur dioxide (SO₂) and particulate phase non-sea-salt sulfate (nss-     ) and methane sulfonate (MSA) measurements. During the dry period, deposition of SO₂ from long-range transport is the main component of anthropogenic sulfur deposition in the area. The results of the wet and dry deposition obtained at Finokalia have been compared with DMS emission from seawater obtained during two yearly surveys (1997–1998) in the Cretan Sea. Our results indicate that the contribution from biogenic sources to the sulfur budget in the Eastern Mediterranean, although negligible during winter, can account for up to 26% during summer.     

黄、渤海气旋暴发性发展的个例分析

对1993年6月初的一个在黄、渤海区达到暴发性发展强度,并形成了一个有明显眼区的温带气旋个例进行了诊断研究。结果表明,温度平流和涡度平流、沿岸锋生以及高空急流的动力作用对气旋暴发性发展有重要贡献。     

A note to the simulation of the annual and inter-annual variability of the water budget over the Baltic Sea drainage basin

Summary The annual and inter-annual variability of the water budget over the Baltic Sea area has been studied using the global climate model ECHAM4/T106 and the regional climate model REMO for three experiments covering a time period of 10 years each. To address the capability of REMO to simulate realistically the water budget over the Baltic Sea re-analyses data (so-called perfect boundaries) were applied as lateral boundary conditions. The validation against observations shows that the results agree rather well. However not all components of the hydrological cycle are observed, therefore only some of them could be compared to the simulation results. A clear dependence of the annual cycle of precipitation from the horizontal resolution was found in the experiments. Until now it is still unclear which processes are responsible for this. Further research will help to identify the sensitive physical processes involved in the water budget and their interactions. Received September 8, 2000 Revised April 3, 2001     

On the heat budget of the Arabian Sea

Summary The rate of oceanic heat storage of the upper 200m of the Arabian Sea is explained in terms of net air-sea heat flux (Q _F), heat change due to horizontal divergence and vertical motion (Q _V) and heat change due to lateral advection (Q _A). The analysis revealed that the heat storage of the Arabian Sea is mainly controlled byQ _V while the effect ofQ _A is much larger than expected. Parameterisation of summer cooling revealed that the depletion of energy from the mixed layer is mainly due to upwelling and horizontal advection though large amount of heat is accumulated due to net air-sea heat flux. The annual heat balance of the upper 200m of the Arabian Sea suggested large heat gain by air-sea exchange processes. About two third of this heat gain is compensated by horizontal advection and one third by vertical advection.With 4 Figures     

Cloud contribution to the daily and annual radiation budget in a mountainous valley

An automated-ventilated radiation station has been set up in a mountainous valley at the Logan Airport in northern Utah, USA, since mid-1995, to evaluate the daily and annual radiation budget components, and develop an algorithm to study cloudiness and its contribution to the daily and annual radiation. This radiation station (composed of pyranometers, pyrgeometers and a net radiometer) provides continuous measurements of downward and upward shortwave, longwave and net radiation throughout the year. The surface temperature and pressure, the 2-m air temperature and humidity, precipitation, and wind at this station were also measured. A heated rain gauge provided precipitation information. Using air temperature and moisture and measured downward longwave (atmospheric) radiation, appropriate formula (among four approaches) was chosen for computation of cloudless-skies atmospheric emissivity. Considering the additional longwave radiation during the cloudy skies coming from the cloud in the waveband which the gaseous emission lacks (from 8–13 μm), an algorithm was developed which provides continuous 20-min cloud information (cloud base height, cloud base temperature, percent of skies covered by cloud, and cloud contribution to the radiation budget) over the area during day and night. On the partly-cloudy day of 3 February, 2003, for instance, cloud contributed 1.34 MJ m^− 2 d^− 1 out of 26.92 MJ m^− 2 d^− 1 to the daily atmospheric radiation. On the overcast day of 18 December, 2003, this contribution was 5.77 MJ m^− 2 d^− 1 out of 29.38 MJ m^− 2 d^− 1. The same contribution for the year 2003 amounted to 402.85 MJ m^− 2 y^− 1 out of 9976.08 MJ m^− 2 y^− 1. Observations (fog which yielded a zero cloud base height and satellite cloud imaging data) throughout the year confirmed the validity of the computed data. The nearby Bowen ratio station provided the downward radiation and net radiation data. If necessary, these data could be substituted for the missing data at the radiation station. While the automated surface observing systems (ASOS) ceilometer at the Logan airport provides only the overhead cloud information, the proposed algorithm provides this information over the valley. The proposed algorithm is a promising approach for evaluation of the cloud base temperature, cloud base height, percent of skies covered by cloud, and cloud contribution to the daily and annual radiation budget at local and regional scales.     

黄海气旋数值模拟的可视化

对一次黄海气旋数值模拟进行了可视化研究, 给出了气旋云系、锋面、流场、涡度场的立体图像, 展示了可视化软件Live View在数值模拟研究中有广阔的应用前景.     

The Effect of Moisture on the Kinetic Energy Budget of a Mediterranean Cyclone

Summary  A diagnostic energetics analysis is used to study the effects of moisture-related processes on a developing cyclone over the Mediterranean. This is done by using the moist wind component to calculate the energy budget and then the effect due to wind field changes on the kinetic energy budget is illustrated. The horizontal flux convergence serves as a major energy budget source in both cases (actual and moist wind), although the magnitude values of this term are small in the case of the moist wind. Generation of kinetic energy, is generally (in the case of moist wind), a prominent sink during the life cycle of the cyclone, and its values are greater than the corresponding ones for the actual wind field except at the decay period. Subgrid-scale sources of kinetic energy provide a substantial energy gain throughout the life cycle of the cyclone. The values of the dissipation term differ from using the actual or moist components where its values are influenced by the values of the other terms in the budget. The baroclinic generation due to the divergent moist wind component offsets by 80.8% and 12.1% for the barotropic destruction of kinetic energy by the rotational moist wind component. The divergent moist wind component was found to be very important in the synoptic-scale environments of the cyclogenesis. Both demonstrate that the divergent moist wind component is as important as the rotational moist wind component in producing generation and horizontal flux divergence of kinetic energy. Generation of kinetic energy by the divergent moist wind component seems to be a major factor leading to the creation of upper-level wind maxima north of the storm areas. Thus, these diagnostic findings suggest possible modifications to the wind field by investigating the role of the divergent moist wind component and may also be fruitful in exploring the effects of cyclogensis on the large-scale environment. Received April 27, 1998/Revised April 23, 1999     

Sea Storms in the Adriatic Sea and the Western Mediterranean during the Last Millennium

Data regarding the frequency andoccurrence of sea storms in the Adriatic Sea and theWestern Mediterranean during the last millennium havebeen extracted from historical written sources. TheAdriatic Sea shows two anomalous periods of high stormfrequency: the first half of the 1500s and the secondhalf of the 1700s. In the 1500s the storms were morefrequent in autumn, while in the late 1700s theyoccurred at high frequency in winter. In the WesternMediterranean, storms had a higher frequency in thefirst half of the 1600s, with two lesser periods ofhigh frequency in the 1400s and at the end of the1700s. Although both records show a maximum frequencyof sea storms during the Spörer Minimum(1416–1534) of solar activity, sunspot series yieldno, or poor, correlation during the other periods oflowest activity, i.e., Oort Minimum (1010–1090), WolfMinimum (1282–1342), and Maunder Minimum (1645–1715),suggesting that a teleconnection between sea stormsand sunspots is improbable or masked in this region.No teleconnection was found either between the ElNiño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and surgesflooding Venice or the Western Mediterranean storms orbetween Venice surges and the Northern AtlanticOscillation (NAO).     

Estimation of the surface heat budget over the South China Sea

本文运用了南海观测资料去评估五个海表热通量格点资料,同时,也计算了这五种格点资料的海表热收支平衡。结果发现这些格点资料都低估了短波辐射和感热通量,但是潜热通量除了NOC2外都相对接近观测值。低估了短波辐射也表明了这些格点资料可能低估了海表热收支。五种格点资料的净热通量都是正值,表明海洋从大气中获得热量。综合比较来看的话,NOC1资料所得的海表热通量收支可能更接近于观测值,更合理。     

Closing the Mackenzie basin water budget,water years 1994/95 to 1996/97

Abstract

A particularly elusive science objective for the Mackenzie Global Energy and Water Cycle Experiment (GEWEX) Study (MAGS) has been to close the atmospheric moisture budget and rationalize it against the surface water budget at annual or even monthly timescales. The task, while not difficult in principle, is complicated by two factors. First is the importance of basin snow‐cover, soil and water‐body storage in the surface water budget. Month‐to‐month changes in these components are frequently greater than the atmospheric flux terms, for example, during spring snowmelt. Furthermore, there is approximately a six‐week lag before local changes are evident in the discharge at the mouth of the basin. Second, the coarse resolution of all of the supporting data may add significant systematic errors. For example, the two radiosonde soundings per day available to the project are unlikely to account adequately for all the moisture generated locally through evapotranspiration during the summer convective season.

This analysis will directly address these two main issues by applying hydrologic and atmospheric computations to assess the storage question, and by using additional soundings at a single site to sample the diurnal signature in atmospheric moisture caused by evapotranspiration. Resulting modifications to the atmospheric moisture and surface water budgets then allow near closure of the MAGS monthly water budget within acceptable error limits.     

引发东北极端暴雪的黄渤海气旋爆发性发展机制

利用高分辨率观测资料和ERA5再分析资料, 分析造成2021年11月7—8日东北极端暴雪的温带气旋结构特征及爆发性发展机制, 结果表明:温带气旋发生在高空冷涡背景下, 地面气旋在黄海形成后出现爆发性快速增强并沿东北地区东部北上。地面降雪区主要分布在气旋西侧, 且降雪强度与气旋的发生发展密切相关;地面气旋在爆发性发展后由叶状云系演变为逗点涡旋云系, 并表现出明显的锋面断裂和暖锋包卷;其垂直结构也先后出现高空锋区断裂、干暖核形成和中性锢囚锋区加强;西伯利亚高压脊、华北高空槽和东北高压脊3个异常中心构成Rossby波列, 随着高度异常中心不断东移及波能量向下游地区频散, 华北高空槽区的波作用通量明显增大导致华北冷涡快速增强, 涡度因子的急剧增大有利于地面气旋爆发性发展;随着平流层位涡高值区沿等熵面不断向南发展和向下传播, 导致中层冷涡快速发展并向下伸展, 诱发地面气旋爆发性增强。     

东海区域热带气旋路径统计动力预报研究

文章主要介绍了东海区域热带气旋路径统计动力预报方案及其使用情况。该方案在原有台风路径统计动力预报方案的基础上调整了预报区域,重新选取了历史样本;延长了预报时效;对随机参数的相关因子,尤其是其中的天气经验因子进行了改进,并引进了欧洲中期数值预报中心的数值预报产品因子。另外,还对有关因子的重要性做了分析研究。经独立样本检验和实时预报表明,该方案的热带气旋预报路径和实际路径相当吻合,各项误差比同类产品明显减小,对实际业务预报服务具有较好的参考价值。     

影响桂东南的南海热带气旋分析

以0214号强热带风暴为例,分析影响桂东南的南海热带气旋的移动路径、速度和强度变化特征以及其对玉林市暴雨和大风天气的影响。     

南海热带气旋频数的气候预测方法

利用前期北半球500 hPa高度场格点资料、海温场(SST)格点资料,计算与后期热带气旋(TC)发生频数的相关系数,分析两个相关场显著相关区的统计特征,进一步分析其天气气候学意义和物理意义。选取若干相关系数高的格点,组成组合因子,建立二项式曲线方程,对影响南海以及登陆或影响广东的热带气旋,做年、月频数预测。预测试验和检验表明,二项式曲线预测模型有较高的拟合能力,在影响南海以及登陆或影响广东的热带气旋年、月频数预测中,有较好的效果。     

一次东海气旋爆发性发展数值模拟

在2006年6月1日发生在东海的爆发性气旋的天气学分析基础上,进行数值模拟,以进一步认识其爆发性发展的物理机制。结果表明:这次东海气旋的地面系统来自台湾岛附近的海上倒槽,在浙北沿海遇到高空比较深厚的低槽,大尺度高空槽通过槽前正涡度输送和槽前后冷暖平流对斜压不稳定的加强作用为气旋发展和维持提供有利的环境。同时,高空急流也通过其出口区的辐散和暖平流为气旋发展和维持提供有利的环境。中低层在舟山海域的强涡度平流的抬升作用产生降水,并通过水汽凝结引起潜热释放,进一步造成地面气旋系统的发展,此时气旋和降水形成正反馈机制。潜热释放被高空槽前斜压不稳定和急流出口区右侧辐散共同引起的上升运动激发后,对气旋的发展起着重要作用。     

Influence of Sea Surface Temperature on the Predictability of Idealized Tropical Cyclone Intensity

The role of sea surface temperature (SST) forcing in the development and predictability of tropical cyclone (TC) intensity is examined using a large set of idealized numerical experiments in the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. The results indicate that the onset time of rapid intensification of TC gradually decreases, and the peak intensity of TC gradually increases, with the increased magnitude of SST. The predictability limits of the maximum 10 m wind speed (MWS) and minimum sea level pressure (MSLP) are ~72 and ~84 hours, respectively. Comparisons of the analyses of variance for different simulation time confirm that the MWS and MSLP have strong signal-to-noise ratios (SNR) from 0-72 hours and a marked decrease beyond 72 hours. For the horizontal and vertical structures of wind speed, noticeable decreases in the magnitude of SNR can be seen as the simulation time increases, similar to that of the SLP or perturbation pressure. These results indicate that the SST as an external forcing signal plays an important role in TC intensity for up to 72 hours, and it is significantly weakened if the simulation time exceeds the predictability limits of TC intensity.