云南及其周邻大地震与云南天文台时纬残差变化

本文侧重于讨论强震的中期异常特征及其预测标志。从方法特点出发，讨论了时纬残差异常用于地震预报的可行性以及用于临震预报的局限性。研究了云南省内６级以上强震、相邻区域７级以上大震的时纬残差异常标志。资料中最后一次强震经过了地震预测与预报全过程的实践检验。初步讨论了异常与构造运动的关系以及有异常无地震的特殊标志。     

云南地区强震与云南天文台测纬残差

本文对云南天文台Ⅱ型等高仪测纬残差的五日加权均值与云南地区强震的对应关系作了分析,并指出在距该仪器大约400公里以内、6级以上地震的孕震期间,由于地下质量迁移引起银垂线倾斜,从而使天文时纬线残差异常。     

中国地震速报台网走时残差分析与走时修正

使用了３０个速报台站的观测数据,计算了１００多个中国境内外的地震事件初至波走时残差。在此基础上分析各台所记录的所有地震事件的残差随方位角和震中距的分布,及产生这些残差的地球深部非流体静力平衡状态和地球表面构造等方面的原因,并给出了不同区域地震走时的平均校正值,从而提高了地震定位精度。     

基于深度学习残差网络模型的地震和爆破识别

为加强对地震台网记录的天然地震与人工爆破事件进行准确的性质识别,本文基于深度学习技术中的残差网络模型,提出了一种新的爆破识别方法,并根据北京数字遥测地震台网及国家数字测震台网中心记录的波形数据及其发布的包含事件性质的地震报告,选取河北三河采石场的93次爆破事件和54次周边地震事件的波形功率谱,分别采用不同的训练样本比例进行了100次和1 000次独立的随机抽样子试验以及 “留一交叉验证法” 试验,对人工爆破与天然地震进行了识别研究。试验结果表明,深度学习残差网络模型在天然地震与爆破事件的性质识别中具有很高的识别率且效果稳定,具有较好的应用前景。      

从天文观测提取地震前兆信息

天文时间和纬度观测的残差值在仪器周围地区发生中强地震前夕出现短期异常的现象已被初步证实．本文进一步讨论时纬残差异常与地震三要素的关系，并认为布设观测网点获得多架仪器的资料，将可为地震三要素，尤其对震中位置的判定提供有意义的信息．多架仪器的资料对垂线变化和垂线偏差研究也将是有价值的．建议在地震高发地区组建观测网，并研制主要用于地学研究的小型、高精度天文时纬观测仪器．      

大同地震台远震波形走时残差的计算和应用

选取大同地震台记录的2010—2019年531个M_S≥5.0地震事件,根据发震区域的不同对其波形走时残差进行分析,得到不同发震区域地震波形的平均走时残差。结果表明,日本、喜马拉雅地区地震波形的走时残差总体为负值,平均残差分别为-1.51 s、-0.70 s;斐济、中国台湾地区、南美洲西海岸地区大多为正值,平均残差为0.79 s、1.83 s、1.86 s。同时发现,在有干扰的情况下参考不同区域平均走时残差计算结果,通过判断实际初至震相与理论初至震相的位置关系,可以更好地开展初至波震相识别工作。     

云南天文台时纬残差与昆明周围强震

一、引言 1985年11月在印度新德里举行的第19届IAU大会地球自转委员会的决议中指出,经典天体测量的时纬结果可用于研究地球物理现象,如地方垂线变化与地震活动性的预测等。在我国,1978年李致森、张国栋等首先提出时纬残差异常与地震的相关性。     

灰色与周期残差叠加模型在地震前兆异常识别中的应用

在建立灰色与周期残差叠加模型的基础上,对用此方法识别地震前兆异常进行了研究;并用此方法对永年等前兆资料进行了处理分析,结果表明,这些手段在地震前分别有明显的异常显示。另外,本文还对其它有关问题进行了讨论。     

高频GPS双差残差模型监测强震地表运动

根据震时地表震动持续时间短的特点,以及双差残差的相关性,提出了基于双差残差建模的高频GPS强震位移监测方法.首先对震前若干历元各双差残差进行建模,地震发生后,利用模型对各双差残差进行预报,最后利用预报残差实现短时间尺度内的位移解算.利用一条长约1100 km基线的静态数据和El Mayor-Cucapah 7.2级地震的94个测站数据进行试验分析,结果表明,5 min预测时间内,静态数据的动态位移在N、E、U三个方向的定位中误差分别为6 mm、6 mm和13 mm,地震数据的解算结果与实际情况有较好的一致性.     

格尔木地震台初至波到时残差分析

通过对2001年1月至2013年12月格尔木地震台的1 608个国内外中强地震初至波到时残差(简称残差)计算,得出平均残差为2.310 6 s,比理论到时平均慢2.310 6 s。用Pearson相关分析和多元线性回归分析方法检验残差与经度、纬度、方位角、震中距、深度等参数的显著性,总结得出残差主要随方位角、震中距、纬度显著变化:(1)方位在90°θ180°,震中距在0.9°≤Δ10°;方位在180°θ270°,震中距在2°≤Δ20°,残差影响较大,在青藏高原地壳和地幔内存在低速异常区,受地壳厚度和低速异常区的影响,造成波速变慢残差增大;(2)方位在0°θ90°和270°θ360°范围内,震中距同时在30°≤Δ105°,在上、下地幔的交汇处存在低速区或低速带,受此影响,东北和西北方向的地震初至波速变慢;(3)残差在北半球随纬度增大而增大,在南半球随纬度变化不明显。     

地磁总强度资料在地震预报中的应用

本文应用地磁总强度资料,用两台差消除地磁场短周期变化,同时亦削弱了长期变影响,从而使年变呈线性变化。然后采用趋势面法求得剩余长期变地区性改正量。资料处理后,显示唐山大震前可能有一年半以上的异常,变化幅度约10伽马,对台网中其它几个6级左右地震亦有较好的异常反应。     

The south to north progression of rainfall anomalies across India during the summer monsoon season

The low frequency spatio-temporal intraseasonal evolution of monsoon rainfall over India is studied by considering the pentad rainfall averages taken over 2.5° wide and 5.0° long blocks lying across the central longitudinal and latitudinal transacts. The time-latitude cross sections show south to north progressions of rainfall anomalies with a recurrence period of about 40 days. The progressions show considerable inter-annual and intra-seasonal variation in frequency, amplitude and rate of progression. The extended empirical orthogonal function analysis shows that the first two most important functions correspond to this northward progression of rain anomalies recurring after an interval of about 40 days. The rate of progression of anomalies is about 0.5° Lat./day. The time-longitude cross sections show the movement of rainfall anomalies towards both directions east and the west, with slight preference towards the east. The importance of these signals in rainfall forecasting is foreseen.     

强震远场前兆异常在地震预报中的应用

强震不仅有近场前兆异常，而且也有远场前兆异常，后者在地震预报中可以起到三个方面的作用：（１）远场前兆异常多在震前的短临阶段准同步地出现，为短临预报提供了较丰富的信息，有助于作出短临预报；（２）远场前兆异常一般具有双重或多重前兆的性质，它们是比较可靠的前兆异常，可为预报地震提供依据；（３）远场前兆异常显示明显的地区，是应力积累较高的地区，往往是后继地震发生地方，即指出了地震可能发生的地域。因此，对远     

石棉5.3级地震地下水异常及其短临预报

地震预报是件十分困难的事,尤其是短临预报。十多年来,在利用地下水的动态异常来预测地震方面有了新的进展,并在地震成因理论方面有新的探索。本文详述了石棉5.3级地震前地下水的异常特征。给出了地下水日常监视预测指标。震前四川地震地下水观测网中渡口、会理、西昌、石棉及康定观测台的水位、水温出现异常,依据这些异常,地震前作出了短临预报。     

POST-EARTHQUAKE RESIDUAL DISPLACEMENTS OF BILINEAR OSCILLATORS

Structures subjected to large inelastic deformations during violent ground shaking do not always return to their initial ‘at-rest’ position but may have residual displacements. Even if collapse does not occur, large residual displacements may render them unusable or irreparable. In order to investigate the likely magnitude of residual displacement many bilinear single-degree-of-freedom oscillators with specified ductilities of 2·0, 4·0 and 6·0, stiffness ratios ranging from −0·25 to 1·0 and fundamental periods from 0 to 3·0s were subjected to 11 earthquake records from various ground types. It is shown that bilinear oscillators with positive stiffness ratios generally have small residual displacements, while those with negative stiffness ratios tend to undergo little inelastic reversal of deformation and have larger residual displacements. Reasons for this behaviour were able to be explained by means of a ‘hysteresis centre curve’. A design example for structures able to be modelled as single-degree-of-freedom oscillators is provided. © 1997 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Use of non-linear filtering for the regional–residual separation of potential field data

Regional–residual separation is essential in gravity and magnetic data interpretation and a variety of techniques have been proposed. Graphical determination of the regional allows geological information to be taken into account. Upward continuation can be used to obtain the regional field either empirically or using some hypothesis about the geology. In some cases, a matched filter can be designed and used to separate deep and shallow sources. Simple low pass filtering has also been used but without much success. Here we propose to use a non-linear filter approach to remove gravity and magnetic anomalies smaller than a given width. This technique attempts to mimic the graphical separation method. The results from synthetic models are presented as well as the results from a case study in eastern Canada and compared to regional gravity and magnetic anomalies obtained by other techniques. Contrary to the regional fields obtained by upward continuation, non-linear filtering does not have any physical meaning. However, its main advantage is that it gives a regional component of the gravity or magnetic field similar to the one obtained from a graphical separation.     

Application of the finite element method to gravity data case study: Western Turkey

Gravity anomalies always include the total effects (combination of the structures which have different densities and depths) of the study area and beyond. And the well-known non-uniqueness of potential field modelling may lead to very different interpretation results.The finite element method (FEM), which has been used in potential field interpretation for decades, makes complex problems to be solved easily and accurately. The first step of FEM is to identify the elements and then to decide on the boundary of the solution space. In this step, the solution space is divided into elements. After determination of the geometrical structure of the solution space, the most suitable elements should be chosen for this geometrical structure. The agreement between the geometry and the elements is quite important for the convergence to the best possible solution.In this work, the methods of trend analysis, filtering, analytical continuation and FEM were applied to a theoretical model and to gravity data from western Turkey to produce the regional and the residual anomalies. The results were compared and it was found that the FEM produced more accurate results than other methods did.     

一种震前超低频密度——应力波

地震发生前天文时纬残差观测数据出现异常,得到了不同天文台观测结果的证实。另外,两种与地震相关的物理量震前地下深部物质视电阻率变化和断层活动矩变化,其物理机制的解释以及与后续地震的关联方式和天文时纬残差有很多共性。而且,这3类观测现象与后续地震的关联方式与国外学者提出的热力学弹性回跳模型符合得很好。本文基于现有观测证据和理论模型的一致性,提出地震前在地层构造中存在一种来自孕震区域的超低频密度—应力波。