Climate change technology transfer: a new paradigm and policy agenda

This article proposes a shift to a paradigm that is more extensive than the current narrow focus on North—South climate change technology transfers, towards a more inclusive ‘global’ paradigm. An implication of the paradigm shift is that there should be a concomitant expansion of the policy agendas of the international climate and trade regimes. The traditional North—South paradigm of technology transfer ignores the increasing importance of developing countries as sources of advanced climate-friendly technologies, and therefore ignores South—North and South—South transfers. Further, whereas the North—South paradigm has emphasized developing countries' intellectual property rights policies as barriers to technology transfers, the ‘global’ paradigm focuses attention on trade and investment policy barriers, including developed countries' policies that inhibit technology transfer from developing countries. The analysis is relevant to international negotiations in the post-2012 climate regime, and is also relevant to the future development of the trade regime—not only at the multilateral level in the WTO, but also at the regional and bilateral levels.     

从地球系统的观点看气候突变

在地球的气候史中,经历了许多次气候突变事件。这些突变对地球表层系统的演变与进化产生了巨大影响。随着全球气候变暖的持续发展,人类赖以生存的气候环境正在经历重大变化。如何科学地理解和认识这些变化,尤其是气候突变。是人类寻求对策,应对气候变化,保护自己持续发展的科学基础。文中从地球系统的角度对气候突变的科学问题进行了探讨,认为对气候突变的研究不应仅局限于大气圈,而应该对地球系统的整体变化进行研究。     

地球上的人工气候岛和大气污染源——天气与城市水问题

文章探讨了城市对气温等气象要素的影响规律，指出了城市气候是异于周围农村气候的人工气候岛，例如城市热岛（气温），雨岛（降水量），干岛（相对湿度）等。特殊的城市条件会给城市造成灾害，例如高温灾害，城市洪灾，城市风灾，酸雨，酸雾，光化学烟雾等，城市还有它它自己特有的气象现象，如城市热岛环流（乡村风），城市是地球上的主要大气污染源，在这个人工污染岛中居住，对居民的健康是不利的。     

一个地球系统模式模拟的气候变化对海洋碳循环的影响

使用维多利亚大学的地球系统模式进行模拟,选取1800-2500年间较高的CO₂浓度情景（RCP8.5）,分析由于CO₂增加引起的气候变化对海洋碳循环的影响。当气候敏感度为3.0 K时,相对于无气候变化,到2100年,由于大气CO₂增加造成的气候变化导致海表面温度升高2.7 K,北大西洋深水流量减少4.5 Sv,海洋对人为碳的年吸收减少0.8 Pg C;比较人为溶解无机碳在海洋中的垂直累积分布,发现气候变化对海洋吸收大气CO₂的影响在北大西洋区域最明显。1800-2500年,相对于不考虑气候变化的情景,模式模拟的气候变化导致整个海洋对人为碳的累积吸收总量减少23.1%,其中北大西洋减少32.0%。此外,比较不同气候敏感度（0～4.5 K,间隔为0.5 K）的模拟结果发现,气候敏感度越高,气候变化对海洋吸收CO₂能力的抑制作用越明显。     

对地球系统模式与综合评估模型双向耦合问题的探讨

概述了地球系统模式和综合评估模型在研究人类活动与气候变化问题上的优势和劣势,明确了将二者进行双向耦合的必要性,客观分析了综合评估模型耦合过程中存在的主要问题,同时系统总结了国际和国内解决耦合难点的主要方法和最新进展,最后分析和讨论了双向耦合模式的不确定性来源和解决方法,为我国进行地球系统模式与综合评估模型双向耦合提供新思路和方法。     

Climate model benchmarking with glacial and mid-Holocene climates

Past climates provide a test of models’ ability to predict climate change. We present a comprehensive evaluation of state-of-the-art models against Last Glacial Maximum and mid-Holocene climates, using reconstructions of land and ocean climates and simulations from the Palaeoclimate Modelling and Coupled Modelling Intercomparison Projects. Newer models do not perform better than earlier versions despite higher resolution and complexity. Differences in climate sensitivity only weakly account for differences in model performance. In the glacial, models consistently underestimate land cooling (especially in winter) and overestimate ocean surface cooling (especially in the tropics). In the mid-Holocene, models generally underestimate the precipitation increase in the northern monsoon regions, and overestimate summer warming in central Eurasia. Models generally capture large-scale gradients of climate change but have more limited ability to reproduce spatial patterns. Despite these common biases, some models perform better than others.     

不同地转速度下的冬季大气环流及气候异常的数值模拟

利用IAP二层全球大气环流模式，进行改变地球自转速度下冬季大气环流及气候异常的数值模拟。其中试验1: 设25 h/d (350 d/a)；试验2:设23 h/d (381 d/a)；控制运行:24 h/d (365 d/a)。联系从古至今地球自转逐渐减慢的情况，主要讨论地转减慢对冬季大气环流和气候的影响。结果表明，地球自转速度减慢以后，能使西风急流加强，南极附近增温。     

Explicit Planktic Calcifiers in the University of Victoria Earth System Climate Model,Version 2.9

Marine calcifiers as a plankton functional type (PFT) are a crucial part of the global carbon cycle, being responsible for much of the carbon export to the deep ocean entering via biological pathways. Deep ocean carbon export through calcifiers is controlled by physiological, ecological, and biogeochemical factors. This paper describes the implementation of a calcifying phytoplankton PFT in the University of Victoria Earth System Climate Model, version 2.9 (UVic ESCM), and mechanistic improvements to the representation of model carbon export (a full calcite tracer, carbonate chemistry dependent calcite dissolution rates, and a ballasting scheme). An iterative method for stabilizing and tuning the biogeochemistry is furthermore described. The UVic ESCM now fills a niche in Earth system modelling that was previously unoccupied in that it is relatively inexpensive to run, yet resolves the complete Earth system carbon cycle including prognostic calcium carbonate and a separate phytoplankton calcifier PFT. The model is now well suited to testing feedbacks between the carbonate and carbon cycles and the climate system as transient simulations. The modifications described improve the UVic ESCM's mechanistic realism without compromising performance with respect to observed carbon and nutrient fluxes. Primary production, export production, particulate organic carbon, and calcite fluxes all fall within independently observed estimates.     

Climate impact of transportation A model comparison

Transportation contributes to a significant and rising share of global energy use and GHG emissions. Therefore modeling future travel demand, its fuel use, and resulting CO₂ emission is highly relevant for climate change mitigation. In this study we compare the baseline projections for global service demand (passenger-kilometers, ton-kilometers), fuel use, and CO₂ emissions of five different global transport models using harmonized input assumptions on income and population. For four models we also evaluate the impact of a carbon tax. All models project a steep increase in service demand over the century. Technology change is important for limiting energy consumption and CO₂ emissions, the study also shows that in order to stabilise or even decrease emissions radical changes would be required. While all models project liquid fossil fuels dominating up to 2050, they differ regarding the use of alternative fuels (natural gas, hydrogen, biofuels, and electricity), because of different fuel price projections. The carbon tax of 200 USD/tCO₂ in 2050 stabilizes or reverses global emission growth in all models. Besides common findings many differences in the model assumptions and projections indicate room for further understanding long-term trends and uncertainty in future transport systems.     

Reconstruction of Climate of the Eemian Interglacial Using an Earth System Model. Part 2. The Response of the Greenland Ice Sheet to Climate Change

In the framework of the study of the Eemian interglacial we consider the role of the Greenland ice sheet in the rise of the mean level of the World Ocean. Its contribution estimated as 2 m confirms the newest estimates based on the model results and on the proxy data analysis. In the beginning of the Eemian interglacial (earlier than 126 thousand years ago) mass lost occurs through the marine margin of the sheet. During the next five millennia, the negative surface mass balance plays the leading role. Taking into account the contribution of Greenland ice sheet, ocean thermal expansion, and the melting of mountain glaciers and ice caps, it is very probable that the West Antarctic ice sheet was the main source of the global sea level growth equal to 6–9 m the compared to the present.     

A carbon cycle model with latitude dependence

A two-dimensional carbon cycle model is divided into three zones representing equatorial, middle and high latitude regions. The three zones are coupled together by a deep ocean meridional convective cell and atmospheric transport terms. The model is applied to the calculation of the dispersion of radiocarbon and tritium from nuclear weapons tests, to the calculation of the atmospheric record of bomb radiocarbon and to the calculation of the Mauna Loa record of atmospheric CO₂. Calibrating on the basis of the Northern hemisphere bomb test data yields a model which has approximately twice the CO₂ ocean uptake of the one-dimension box diffusion models calibrated on the basis of deep water equilibrium carbon 14.Work performed under the auspices of the U.S. Department of Energy by the Lawrence Livermore Laboratory under contract No. W-7405-ENG-78.     

Climate simulations based on a different-grid nested and coupled model

An atmosphere-vegetation interaction model (AVIM) has been coupled with a nine-layer General Circulation Model (GCM) of Institute of Atmospheic Physics / State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics (IAP/LASG), which is rhomboidally truncated at zonal wave number 15, to simulate global climatic mean states. AVIM is a model having inter-feedback between land surface processes and eco-physiological processes on land. As the first step to couple land with atmosphere completely, the physiological processes are fixed and only the physical part (generally named the SVAT (soil-vegetation-atmosphere-transfer scheme) model) of AVIM is nested into IAP/LASG L9R15 GCM. The ocean part of GCM is prescribed and its monthly sea surface temperature (SST) is the climatic mean value. With respect to the low resolution of GCM, i.e., each grid cell having longitude 7.5° and latitude 4.5°, the vegetation is given a high resolution of 1.5° by 1.5° to nest and couple the fine grid cells of land with the coarse grid cells of atmosphere. The coupling model has been integrated for 15years and its last ten-year mean of outputs was chosen for analysis.Compared with observed data and NCEP reanalysis, the coupled model simulates the main characteristics of global atmospheric circulation and the fields of temperature and moisture. In particular, the simulated precipitation and surface air temperature have sound results. The work creates a solid base on coupling climate models with the biosphere.     

Development of Climate and Earth System Models in China: Past Achievements and New CMIP6 Results

The Earth-Climate System Model (ECSM) is an important platform for multi-disciplinary and multi-sphere integration research, and its development is at the frontier of international geosciences, especially in the field of global change. The research and development (R&D) of ECSM in China began in the 1980s and have achieved great progress. In China, ECSMs are now mainly developed at the Chinese Academy of Sciences, ministries, and universities. Following a brief review of the development history of Chinese ECSMs, this paper summarized the technical characteristics of nine Chinese ECSMs participating in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 and preliminarily assessed the basic performances of four Chinese models in simulating the global climate and the climate in East Asia. The projected changes of global precipitation and surface air temperature and the associated relationship with the equilibrium climate sensitivity under four shared socioeconomic path scenarios were also discussed. Finally, combined with the international situation, from the perspective of further improvement, eight directions were proposed for the future development of Chinese ECSMs.     

Climate model sensitivity to sea ice albedo parameterization

Summary Three one-year experimental simulations with the National Center for Atmospheric Research Community Climate Model (NCAR CCM) were performed with three sea ice albedo parameterizations and compared with control run results to examine their impact on polar surface temperature, planetary albedo and clouds. The first integration utilized sea ice albedos of the Arctic Basin for the spring and summer of 1977 derived from defence Meteorological Satellite Imagery (DMSP). The second simulation employed prescribed lead and melt pond fractions and an albedo weighting scheme. The third simulation involved the coupling of an interactive sea ice/snow albedo parameterization made a function of surface state.Results show that prescribed, and assumed true satellite sea ice albedos produced higher planetary albedos than those calculated with the standard CCM sea ice albedo scheme in the control run. As a result, lower temperatures (up to 0.5 K) and increased cloudiness are generated for the Arctic region. The standard CCM sea ice albedo scheme is used as an adjustment to maintain normal temperatures for the polar oceans. The radiative impact of leads and melt ponds warmed sea ice regions only for short time periods. The third scheme generated markedly lower planetary albedos (reductions of 0.07 to 0.17) and higher surface temperatures (up to 2.0 K) than control values.The CCM simulates a gradual decrease in spring and summer Arctic cloud cover whereas observations show a sharp spring increase. Examination of the CCM code, particularly the cloud parameterization, is required to address this problem.With 12 Figures     

Climate change hotspots in the CMIP5 global climate model ensemble

We use a statistical metric of multi-dimensional climate change to quantify the emergence of global climate change hotspots in the CMIP5 climate model ensemble. Our hotspot metric extends previous work through the inclusion of extreme seasonal temperature and precipitation, which exert critical influence on climate change impacts. The results identify areas of the Amazon, the Sahel and tropical West Africa, Indonesia, and the Tibetan Plateau as persistent regional climate change hotspots throughout the 21st century of the RCP8.5 and RCP4.5 forcing pathways. In addition, areas of southern Africa, the Mediterranean, the Arctic, and Central America/western North America also emerge as prominent regional climate change hotspots in response to intermediate and high levels of forcing. Comparisons of different periods of the two forcing pathways suggest that the pattern of aggregate change is fairly robust to the level of global warming below approximately 2 °C of global warming (relative to the late-20th-century baseline), but not at the higher levels of global warming that occur in the late-21st-century period of the RCP8.5 pathway, with areas of southern Africa, the Mediterranean, and the Arctic exhibiting particular intensification of relative aggregate climate change in response to high levels of forcing. Although specific impacts will clearly be shaped by the interaction of climate change with human and biological vulnerabilities, our identification of climate change hotspots can help to inform mitigation and adaptation decisions by quantifying the rate, magnitude and causes of the aggregate climate response in different parts of the world.     

Climate predictability experiments with a general circulation model

The atmospheric response to the evolution of the global sea surface temperatures from 1979 to 1992 is studied using the Max-Planck-Institut 19 level atmospheric general circulation model, ECHAM3 at T 42 resolution. Five separate 14-year integrations are performed and results are presented for each individual realization and for the ensemble-averaged response. The results are compared to a 30-year control integration using a climate monthly mean state of the sea surface temperatures and to analysis data. It is found that the ECHAM3 model, by and large, does reproduce the observed response pattern to El Nino and La Niña. During the El Nino events, the subtropical jet streams in both hemispheres are intensified and displaced equatorward, and there is a tendency towards weak upper easterlies over the equator. The Southern Oscillation is a very stable feature of the integrations and is accurately reproduced in all experiments. The inter-annual variability at middle- and high-latitudes, on the other hand, is strongly dominated by chaotic dynamics, and the tropical SST forcing only modulates the atmospheric circulation. The potential predictability of the model is investigated for six different regions. Signal to noise ratio is large in most parts of the tropical belt, of medium strength in the western hemisphere and generally small over the European area. The ENSO signal is most pronounced during the boreal spring. A particularly strong signal in the precipitation field in the extratropics during spring can be found over the southern United States. Western Canada is normally warmer during the warm ENSO phase, while northern Europe is warmer than normal during the ENSO cold phase. The reason is advection of warm air due to a more intense Pacific low than normal during the warm ENSO phase and a more intense Icelandic low than normal during the cold ENSO phase, respectively.     

The Madden-Julian oscillation in the Canadian Climate Centre general circulation model

The Madden-Julian oscillation (MJO) simulated by the Canadian Climate Centre general circulation model (CCC GCM) is identified by a principal oscillation pattern (POP) analysis and compared with that observed in the real atmosphere. The results are based upon two integrations of the CCC GCM, one with a parameterization of penetrative cumulus convection (EXP1) and the other with a moist convective adjustment scheme (EXP2). The signal of MJO can be detected in both integrations as the first POP of the 200 hPa velocity potential along the equator. The disturbances show a distinctive wave number one structure with the strongest local amplitude found in the longitudes corresponding to the region of the Asian monsoon. The phase speed of the eastward wave propagation is higher in the eastern Pacific and lower in the monsoon region where the convective activities are strongest. These features are in good agreement with the observations. The energy spectrum of the velocity potential peaks at the frequency corresponding to a period of about 38 days for EXP1, which is somewhat shorter compared to the observed periods of 40–50 days. On the other hand, two spectral peaks can be clearly identified for EXP2, one with a period of 24 days and the other with a much longer period, somewhere near 112 days. Both peaks appear statistically significant at 95% level. Long term data of the observed atmosphere show little indication of such spectral separation. The horizontal patterns identified by the POP analysis resemble to some extent the baroclinic response of tropical flow to a heat source travelling with the speed of MJO. At the upper level, Rossby wave energy propagates westward with winds generally following the height contours, whereas Kelvin wave energy propagates to the east from the heat source with strong cross-contour flow near the equator. At the lower level, the patterns are essentially reversed. The model-generated precipitation and diabatic heating are examined by compositing against the moving MJO. It is found in EXP2 that the composite heating distribution is coherent with the flow pattern only in a certain sector of the equator, depending on whether the fast or slow mode is used to determine the reference point. The composite vertical heating profile of a slower mode tends to have a maximum found at a lower level. The sensitivity of simulated MJO to the cumulus convection scheme in the model is discussed. Received: 19 December 1994 / Accepted: 11 July 1995