一种基于MODIS积雪产品的雪线高度提取方法

冰川雪线高度的遥感提取对冰川物质平衡研究具有重要意义。提出一种基于晴空环境下积雪覆盖频率的雪线高度提取方法。使用MOD10A1积雪产品中的像元积雪面积比例数据,提取了2000/2001-2014/2015年间高亚洲地区冰川消融期末雪线高度。使用实测的冰川年物质平衡资料和气象格网数据对提取的雪线高度变化的可信度进行分析。研究表明：近15 a高亚洲雪线高度变化及趋势具有明显的东西差异,雪线高度变化幅度自青藏高原内部地区向四周呈增加趋势,西部大于东部。提取的冰川雪线高度变化与观测的年物质平衡序列具有很高的相关性,对物质平衡波动的平均解释率可高达75%;与气象要素（气温、降水）的年际变化的相关性也较高,约61.58%的格网冰川雪线高度变化可以由夏季气温和季节降水解释。而高亚洲各分区冰川雪线高度的波动规律也与大气环流背景分布一致。因此提取的雪线高度变化具有冰川学意义,可以进一步应用于冰川物质平衡估算及模拟研究中。     

Forecasting flood disasters using an accelerated genetic algorithm: Examples of two case studies for China

This article discusses a rescaled range analysis model, titled AGA-R/S, that is based on an accelerated genetic algorithm. The parameter a, Hurst index of rescaled range analysis, and the recurrent time of disaster in the next time-period, were directly computed using an accelerated genetic algorithm developed by the authors. As case studies, using the AGA-R/S model, a forecast was made of the tendency for change in a time series of annual precipitation for the city of Jinhua, China. The model also forecast flooding-disaster in the city of Wuzhou, China. Results indicate that it is a relatively efficient technique to forecast the change-tendency of flood and disaster time series using the AGA-R/S model. When time series is utilized, forecasted error of the AGA-R/S model is less than with a linear least square method. The Hurst indexes of the two cities are from 0.23 to 0.24, which indicates that these time series are fractal and relatively long-term. Their fractional Brownian motion shows anti-persistence. AGA-R/S has application in forecasting the change-tendency of other natural disaster for specific time series.     

Climate change and its role in forecasting energy demand in buildings: A case study of Douala City,Cameroon

Journal of Earth System Science - The foremost role of a building is to assure the comfort of its occupants. The thermal comfort of a building depends on the outdoor climate and requires a demand...     

A new hybrid method for establishing point forecasting,interval forecasting,and probabilistic forecasting of landslide displacement

Natural Hazards - In addition to its inherent evolution trend, landslide displacement contains strong fluctuation and randomness, and omni-directional landslide displacement prediction is more...     

Binary coefficients: A theoretical and empirical study

Binary coefficients can be assigned to several categories on the basis of algebraic and conceptual properties. The phi coefficient of association is related algebraically to the chi-square statistic for 2-by-2 contingency tables, and use of this coefficient in cluster analysis permits the objective, nonarbitrary partitioning of objects among groups on the basis of previously selected levels of significant, positive association. Similarity, matching, and distance coefficients possess neither conceptual nor operational statistical meaning for many geological data sets. The weighted pair group method and flexible clustering strategy may give an overly conservative partitioning of objects among groups. Clustering by the unweighted pair group method, using the phi coefficient, is recommended for the analysis of biostratigraphic and paleoecologic presence—absence data.     

Coping strategies with floods in Bangladesh: an empirical study

In the time of the flooding, rural people in Bangladesh suffer from the lingering effects of labor market disruption and income deficiency. This study shows a model based analysis on the research question, ??what coping strategies are followed by the flooded households in Bangladesh and how???. Data are collected through a three stage stratified random sampling technique on 595 flooded and rural households??. Survey is carried out aftermath of the flood in the year 2005, from four different districts in Bangladesh. A major proportion of households are found to borrow money or resources from informal sources, such as nearby shops or the pharmacy, friends or relatives, or local money lenders, to buy food items and other essentials. A censored tobit model analysis shows that households initiate coping with borrowing money after the realization of floods, and gradually lead to cope with savings and selling assets as the duration of flood increases.     

Post-Cyclone Sidr illness patterns in coastal Bangladesh: an empirical study

After the landfall of Cyclone Sidr along the southwestern coast of Bangladesh on November 15, 2007, emergency and public health personnel within and beyond Bangladesh anticipated a massive outbreak of water-borne and other diseases in most affected areas. Fortunately, such an outbreak did not occur. The objectives of this paper are to examine the extent and pattern of illnesses experienced by Cyclone Sidr survivors in the aftermath of its landfall and to investigate household and individual-level factors associated with such illnesses. Based on face-to-face interviews conducted among 277 randomly selected Sidr survivors living in the four most severely impacted coastal districts, this study found that the post-cyclone incidence of water-borne, respiratory, and other diseases was not unusually high. Only 52 persons suffered Sidr-related illnesses, and their illnesses were significantly associated with household income, and gender and age of the Sidr survivors. A major outbreak of such diseases was largely avoided because of the proper distribution of food and safe drinking water, as well as the timely implementation of health care intervention measures. This important finding will aid relevant authorities in successfully responding to outbreaks of diseases following a future extreme event in Bangladesh and perhaps elsewhere.     

Multidimensional poverty in slums: an empirical study from urban India

Poverty is the most important metric for determining the nature and sense of wellbeing in a given area. Most economists consider poverty to be an economic criterion for assessing many aspects of human development as well as overall social development; yet, society is multi-faceted in its many forms. To address this pressing societal issue, the current study used the Multidimensional poverty index (MPI). To analyse urban poverty among slum communities, the researchers used the Global MPI of the Oxford Poverty and Human Development Initiative and UNDP (following Alkire and Foster) techniques. Researchers attempted to create a Multidimensional poverty index (MPI) for impoverished households in Purulia's designated slums in this study. In the second phase, the multidimensional poverty of Purulia's urban poor households was assessed based on (a) location, (b) social groupings, and (c) length of stay. Finally, researchers have attempted to identify the factors that contribute to multidimensional poverty. Two indicators, the Head Count Ratio (H) and Intensity of Poverty, have been offered to better explain the nature of MPI (A). Based on slum population density and areal density, eight urban slum areas with 320 households has been taken from 8 selected slums based on Yamane’s methodology from Purulia Municipality's wards. A structured questionnaire, an oral history interview, and a focus group discussion were used as primary data sources, with secondary data acquired from several officially published sources. The study displays a decomposed multidimensional poverty picture in terms of overall condition, socioeconomic groups, and household age, with a quantitative methodology that is transparent. When the locations have been considered, a qualitative approach has been used to determine that the slums closest to the railway track are the most multidimensionally disadvantaged of the eight slums. Furthermore, the schedule caste population has been found to be more deprived across many socioeconomic groups, with Scheduled tribe (ST) households being the most deprived in terms of health on one hand (applied quantitative methodology) and multi-nominal regression (applied qualitative methodology) indicating a mix mode approach. This form of analysis, which combines quantitative and qualitative approaches, can aid stakeholders and policymakers in developing specific poverty-reduction policies at the regional level.

     

A prediction method using grey model for cumulative plastic deformation under cyclic loads

Being able to predict cumulative plastic deformation of soil under cyclic loading has been quite a popular subject for researchers both in the past and at present. In this paper, a non-equal interval non-homogeneous exponential grey model NNGM (1, 1) for cumulative plastic deformation has been put forward by improving the traditional grey model GM (1, 1). The proposed model was evaluated by numerous experimental data of existing literatures and found to be valid for a wide range of soils. It is also valid for predicting long-term settlement of subgrade under subway loads and has a better performance than the traditional model GM (1, 1) as well as non-homogeneous exponential model NEM.     

地震资料曲流河辫状河油气储层识别与预测

曲流河、辫状河储层在我国的陆相盆地中广泛分布。由于曲流河相沉积砂体的单层薄、横向变化;辫状河相沉积的砂体迁移快、垂向加积等特点,增加了在勘探过程中对其分辨的难度。因此,对地震资料曲流河、辫状河油气储层的识别与预测,必须综合多种与其相关的地质资料,结合地震数据体中给出的信息来判断分析,以达到提高分辨率的目的。     

陆相沉积盆地不可忽视的工作方法--成因相与作用相分析

成因相与作用相分析是相分析不可分割部分。这种分析不但能够确立盆地沉积相序列,而且把盆内与盆外、构造与沉积、沉积动态与沉积过程,时间与空间紧密地结合起来,达到深刻认识沉积盆地演化发展的目的,是陆相盆地不可缺少的工作方法。     

FY-3 A/MERS I积雪制图中NDS I指标建立及积雪判识模型研究 ——以祁连山区为例

我国新型自主的极轨气象卫星风云3号A星（简称FY-3A）上搭载的中分辨率光谱成像仪（MERSI）为大面积雪监测提供了新的遥感数据源。以中国西北祁连山区为例,分析FY-3A/MERSI传感器积雪与其它地物的图谱特征差异,建立了适用于FY-3A/MERSI的归一化差分积雪指数（NDSI）,以此为基础,构建了综合利用多光谱判别指标及土地覆盖类型（LULC）定类辅助的积雪判识模型,生成250 m分辨率的日积雪制图产品。模型通过逐步逼近的树状判别结构,去除了易和积雪混淆的部分乔木林、云、云阴影、水体、湖冰、沙（盐）地等地物,并提出应考虑积雪下覆地表特性的影响,调整设定不同LULC类型的积雪判别阈值约束,实时结合区域LULC影像进行积雪的最终判定与优化。对祁连山区2010-2011年积雪季FY-3A/MERSI影像的积雪制图应用结果表明,该资料能够客观精细地反映积雪的空间分布与动态发展过程。同时利用气象台站积雪观测记录及Terra/MODIS积雪判识结果进行对比验证,结果表明基于FY-3A/MERSI建立的积雪判识模型具有较高的精度和稳定性,特别是提高了云雪区分的效能。     

A semi‐empirical method for the liquefaction analysis of offshore foundations

This paper presents a relatively simple method for three‐dimensional liquefaction analysis of granular soil under offshore foundations. In this method, the Mohr–Coulomb model, which defines the elasto–plastic stress–strain relationship under monotonic loading, is modified to accommodate the plastic strains generated by cyclic loading. The effects of cyclic loading, evaluated from the results of laboratory tests on saturated samples of soil, are incorporated into the model. The method is implemented in an efficient finite element program for analyses of three‐dimensional consolidating soil. The practicability of the model is demonstrated by analysis of a typical offshore foundation, and the predictions of the numerical analysis are compared with the observed behaviour of the foundation. Copyright © 2000 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Post-Cyclone Sidr nutritional status of women and children in coastal Bangladesh: an empirical study

Cyclone Sidr, a Category 4 storm, struck the southwestern coast of Bangladesh on November 15, 2007, causing 3,406 deaths, 2.51 million acres of crop damage, and aggregated damage of US$1.7 billion. It significantly damaged household food availability and increased post-cyclone nutritional insecurity. This study assesses the nutritional status of household and explores influences of various socioeconomic variables on nutritional security. More specifically, it explores the impact of the cyclone on short-term nutritional status of women of reproductive age and children under 5?years. For this study, 331 households living in three villages devastated by Cyclone Sidr were selected. The nutritional status of women of reproductive age was measured based on body mass index, and that of children aged 6?C59?months was measured based on weight-for-height (wasting), height-for-age (stunting), and weight-for-age (underweight). This study found that the nutritional status, along with other household characteristics, of the study groups was not remarkably different across the three selected villages. Findings of this study further suggest that the nutritional security situation was not much changed in the post-cyclone period compared with the pre-cyclone period primarily because of rapid and effective distribution of essential food items among cyclone survivors by the government of Bangladesh along with donor and other organizations. However, nutritional insecurity was more prevalent in the island village relative to inland and coastline villages. Similarly, fishermen were found to be the most vulnerable to nutritional insecurity in the post-cyclone period. Several recommendations are made to improve food aid distribution in the aftermath of a cyclone.     

长江三峡工程库区宝塔坪滑坡前缘塌岸预测及防护

以长江三峡工程库区奉节宝塔坪滑坡为例，介绍滑坡前缘塌岩预测及防护工程设计方法，重点是石笼垫护坡设计。宝塔坪库岸段潜在的塌岸部位是滑坡前缘地带，该处阶地发育，仅第四系松散堆积物厚度即达50m以上。水库塌岸预测首先在滑坡前缘工程地质分带的基础上进行，对不同的分带用卡丘金法分别预测塌岸宽度，并对预测要点给予详细的说明。其次，分析了塌岩对滑坡稳定性的影响。这些工作揭示了滑坡体前缘防护的必要性。最后针对三峡水库运行特点及宝塔坪滑坡工程地质条件，确定滑坡前缘护坡工程方案，即自145－177m高程范围采用石笼垫和石笼挡土墙2类结构型式，并给出具体的设计方法。     

基于ETM+的积雪提取方法研究——以新疆玛纳斯河流域为例

为了高精度地提取积雪信息, 消除森林覆盖区以及结冰河流水体对于积雪信息提取的影响, 以Landsat ETM+为数据源, 分析了玛纳斯河流域积雪信息提取的归一化差值积雪指数阈值, 并建立积雪信息提取方法. 对研究区进行了积雪信息提取, 并与国际数据服务平台所得的积雪信息提取结果进行了比较. 结果表明: 基于Landsat数据利用归一化差值积雪指数提取积雪信息时, 其合理阈值应为0.37; 通过总体精度以及Kappa相关系数在结冰水体区域以及森林覆盖区域的提取结果进行对比, 认定所使用的提取方法更加准确可靠.