Extreme climate events over northern China during the last 50 years

Climate extremes for agriculture-pasture transitional zone, northern China, are analyzed on the basis of daily mean temperature and precipitation observations for 31 stations in the period 1956-2001. Analysis season for precipitation is May-September, i.e., the rainy season. For temperature is the hottest three months, i.e., June through August. Heavy rain events, defined as those with daily precipitation equal to or larger than 50 mm, show no significant secular trend. A jump-like change, however, is found occurring in about 1980. For the period 1980-1993, the frequency of heavy rain events is significantly lower than the previous periods. Simultaneously, the occurring time of heavy rains expanded, commencing about one month early and ending one month later. Long dry spells are defined as those with longer than 10 days without rainfall. The frequency of long dry spells displays a significant (at the 99% confidence level) trend at the value of +8.3%/10a. That may be one of the major causes of the frequent droughts emerging over northern China during the last decades. Extremely hot and low temperature events are defined as the uppermost 10% daily temperatures and the lowest 10% daily temperatures, respectively. There is a weak and non-significant upward trend in frequency of extremely high temperatures from the 1950s to the mid-1990s. But the number of hot events increases as much as twice since 1997. That coincides well with the sudden rise in mean summer temperature for the same period. Contrary to that, the frequency of low temperature events have been decreasing steadily since the 1950s, with a significant linear trend of -15%/10a.     

近50年华北地区极端气候分析

Climate extremes for agriculture-pasture transitional zone, northem China, are analyzed on the basis of daily mean temperature and precipitation observations for 31 stations in the period 1956-2001. Analysis season for precipitation is May-September, i.e., the rainy season. For temperature is the hottest three months, i.e., June through August. Heavy rain events, defined as those with daily precipitation equal to or larger than 50 mm, show no significant secular trend. A jump-like change, however, is found occurring in about 1980. For the period 1980-1993, the frequency of heavy rain events is significantly lower than the previous periods. Simultaneously, the occurring time of heavy rains expanded, commencing about one month early and ending one month later. Long dry spells are defined as those with longer than 10 days without rainfall. The frequency of long dry spells displays a significant (at the 99% confidence level) trend at the value of 8.3% /10a. That may be one of the major causes of the frequent droughts emerging over northern China during the last decades. Extremely hot and low temperature events are defined as the uppermost 10% daily temperatures and the lowest 10% daily temperatures, respectively. There is a weak and non-significant upward trend in frequency of extremely high temperatures from the 1950s to the mid-1990s. But the number of hot events increases as much as twice since 1997. That coincides well with the sudden rise in mean summer temperature for the same period. Contrary to that, the fiequency of low temperature events have been decreasing steadily since the 1950s, with a significant linear trend of-15%/10a.     

华北农牧交错带夏季极端气候的趋势分析

利用1956~2001年日降水量及日平均气温资料,分析华北农牧交错带极端气候事件的长期变化趋势。对降水极端事件的分析季节为5~9月,温度为6~8月。结果发现暴雨 (日降水 ≥50 mm) 频数没有显著的线性变化趋势,但1980年前后发生了明显的年代际尺度变化,1980年代到1990年代初,频次显著减少,此期间暴雨发生的时间更加分散。定义连续无雨的天数为干燥事件。发现虽然降水量没有显著的变化,但是严重干燥事件 (连续0降水日 ≥10天) 的频数却呈显著增加趋势 (+8.3%/10a), 超过99%信度水平。最高和最低的10%温度分别定义异常高温和异常低温,则异常高温的频数有显著增加趋势 (+20.9%/10a),特别是1990年代后期以来增加非常突出。异常低温频次有减少的趋势 (-15.1%/10a),超过99%信度水平。严重干燥事件及异常高温事件的强烈增加,可能是造成近来北方干旱频繁发生的重要原因。     

Discrimination of small earthquakes and artificial explosions in the Korean Peninsula using Pg/Lg ratios

The purpose of this study is to develop a technique to discriminate artificial explosions from local small earthquakes ( M ≤ 4.0) in the time–frequency domain. In order to obtain spectral features of artificial explosions and earthquakes, 3-D spectrograms (frequency, time and amplitude) have been used. They represent a useful tool for studying the frequency content of entire seismic waveforms observed at local and regional distances (Kim, Simpson & Richards 1994). P and S(L g ) waves from quarry blasts show that the frequency content associated with the dominant amplitude appears above 10  Hz and Rg phases are observed at close distances. P and S(L g ) waves from the Tongosan earthquake have strong amplitudes below 10  Hz. For the Munkyong earthquake, however, a broader frequency content up to 20  Hz is found.
  For discrimination between small earthquakes and explosions, Pg/L g spectral ratios are used below 10  Hz, and through spectrogram analysis we can see different frequency contents of explosions and earthquakes. Unfortunately, because explosion data recorded at KSRS array are digitized at 20  sps, we cannot avoid analysing below 10  Hz because of the Nyquist frequency. In order to select time windows, the group velocity was computed using multiple-filter analysis (MFA), and free-surface effects have been removed from all three-component data in order to improve data quality. Using FFT, a log-average spectral amplitude is calculated over seven frequency bands: 0.5 to 3, 2 to 4, 3 to 5, 4 to 6, 5 to 7, 6 to 8 and 8 to 10  Hz. The best separation between explosions and earthquakes is observed from 6 to 8  Hz. In this frequency band we can separate explosions with log ( Pg/L g ) above −0.5, except EXP1 recorded at SIHY1-1, and earthquakes below −0.5, except the Munkyong earthquake record at station KMH.     

Kinematic multistation discriminator between local quarry blasts and earthquakes

It has long been known that S waves on seismograms of local explosions are often accompanied by strong low-frequency, low-velocity, Rg surface wave trains, often significantly diminished for earthquakes. We utilize this fact to construct a new formal discriminator between earthquakes and explosions by measuring the S -surface-wave group velocity. The method is based on analysing the velogram; that is, the display of the envelope of ground motion versus group velocity V = R/T , where R is the epicentral distance and T  the traveltime. We examine the distribution of seismic energy in time and space using envelopes of records from the Israel Seismic Network (ISN), from which we compute the velograms and observe differences in the velograms of quarry blasts and earthquakes. The data include 143 seismic events occurring in three areas (Galilee, Dead Sea, and Gilad) monitored by the ISN; the magnitude range is M _L = 1.0–2.8 at distances of 15–310 km. From the velograms we measure the group velocity, V _{m s} , within the 1–4 km s⁻¹ range at which the velogram reaches its maximum for each available station. The resulting V _{m s} (R) function is closely fitted by the empirical relationship a + b  ln  R , with a and b coefficients varying from event to event. A simple linear function c = b + 0.33a at a threshold C = 0.69 completely separates ( a,b ) pairs for the 67 Galilee events, and, for the 76 remaining events, one earthquake and four explosions are wrongly classified. After data validation and application of the Fisher linear discriminator, adapted to the events from Galilee, only two misidentified events remain for the whole data set.     

Modeling surficial sand and gravel deposits

Mineral-deposit models are an integral part of quantitative mineral-resource assessment. As the focus of mineral-deposit modeling has moved from metals to industrial minerals, procedure has been modified and may be sufficient to model surficial sand and gravel deposits. Sand and gravel models are needed to assess resource-supply analyses for planning future development and renewal of infrastructure. Successful modeling of sand and gravel deposits must address (1) deposit volumes and geometries, (2) sizes of fragments within the deposits, (3) physical characteristics of the material, and (4) chemical composition and chemical reactivity of the material. Several models of sand and gravel volumes and geometries have been prepared and suggest the following: Sand and gravel deposits in alluvial fans have a median volume of 35 million m³. Deposits in all other geologic settings have a median volume of 5.4 million m³, a median area of 120 ha, and a median thickness of 4 m. The area of a sand and gravel deposit can be predicted from volume using a regression model (log [area (ha)] =1.47+0.79 log [volume (million m³)]). In similar fashion, the volume of a sand and gravel deposit can be predicted from area using the regression (log [volume (million m³)]=–1.45+1.07 log [area (ha)]). Classifying deposits by fragment size can be done using models of the percentage of sand, gravel, and silt within deposits. A classification scheme based on fragment size is sufficiently general to be applied anywhere.     

基于GPD分布的黑河流域极端降水频率特征分析

采用广义帕雷托分布(GPD)对黑河流域极端降水的频率特征进行了分析。采用百分位数法、Hill图法、年交叉率法选取了极端降水阈值,借助L矩法对GPD分布的参数进行了估计;采用Mann-Kendall和Pettitt方法对超阈值日极端降水序列的平稳性进行了检验。结果表明：① 采用百分位数法和Hill图法得到的日极端降水阈值差别很大,在综合考虑以上两种方法的基础上,结合年交叉率法,最终确定了流域各站点日极端降水的阈值;② 根据Mann-Kendall和Pettitt方法,超阈值日极端降水序列基本满足平稳性假定;通过Kolmogorov-Smirnov检验以及理论频率曲线和经验频率曲线的拟合程度可以看出,GPD分布能够很好地拟合研究区极端降水的分布特征;③ 通过分析理论累积频率达到90%以上的极端降水可以发现,黑河流域20世纪60年代发生极端降水的次数最多,其次是90年代以后,70年代、80年代发生极端降水次数较少;在过去51年间,下游发生极端降水的次数最多,其次是中游和上游。     

Earthquake intensity attenuation pattern in the United States

Summary. Attenuation of earthquake intensities with epicentral distance was studied by analysing the intensity data for 39 earthquakes in the United States. Attenuation of MM intensity ( I ) with distance (Δ km) follows a simple relation of the type log I = log I ₀ - m Δ, where I ₀ is the intensity at the epicentre and m is a constant. Slope m is found to be inversely proportional to the square of the focal depth. Intensity attenuation pattern in the United States in general can be represented by a unified relation I/I ₀= exp [-(0.8999/ h ²+ 0.0014)Δ] where 16km ≤ h ≤ 60km. Intensities were calculated with the help of this equation and a good agreement with the observed intensities were found. A comparative study has also been made between the attenuation relations applicable to India and the United States.     

Possible mode conversion between Love and Rayleigh waves at a continental margin

Summary. Mode conversion at a continental margin between normal modes of surface waves is investigated by theoretical calculations for oblique incidence for periods longer than 15 s. It is suggested that significant conversion takes place between the various modes of Love waves in the period interval between 15 and 40 s, while there is negligible mode conversion for longer periods. The largest mode conversion involves the lowest modes. In addition the calculations have revealed a small but significant conversion between Love and Rayleigh fundamental modes around 20-s period. Reflections of Love waves are found to be significant only for the continental fundamental mode.     

巴丹吉林沙漠包气带Cl-示踪与气候记录研究

Cl^-是自然界中最稳定的示踪剂, 包气带水Cl^-浓度与降水中Cl^-浓度的差异可以反映降水的有效入渗补给量和包气带水的年龄。基于CMB的氯累积年龄可以用³⁶Cl/Cl在三个时间尺度上校正。利用CMB研究了巴丹吉林沙漠南缘的两个钻孔剖面的Cl^-与含水量的分布状况, 计算了800a以来的地下水补给量及其所反映的气候波动特征。在该地区, 多年平均降雨量为89mm, 而平均补给量仅为1.3mm。干旱沙漠地区最近800a气候明显经历了4个干期和3个湿期。1500-1530年是干旱区气候突变的时期, 18世纪末至19世纪初是气候环境演化的又一个十分重要的时间界限, 自此以后的漫长时间, 干旱化进程进一步加剧。     

中国南方冬季异常低温和降水事件

This paper analyzed the anomalous low-temperature events and the anomalous rain-abundant events in January since 1951 and winter since 1880 for southern China.The anomalous events are defined using ±1σ thresholds.Twelve cold Januaries are identified where temperature anomaly below-1σ,and ten wet Januaries are identified where precipitation anomaly above +1σ.Among these events there are three patterns of cold-wet Januaries,namely 1969,1993 and 2008.The NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data are used to check the atmospheric circulation changes in association with the anomalous temperature and precipitation events.The results show that the strong Siberian High(SBH),East Asian trough(EAT) and East Asian jet stream(EAJS) are favorable conditions for low-temperature in southern China.While the anomalous southerly flow at 850 hPa,the weak EAT at 500 hPa,the strong Middle East jet stream(MEJS) and the weaker EAJS are found to accompany a wetter southern China.The cold-wet winters in southern China,such as...更多 January of 2008,are mainly related to a stronger SBH,and the circulation in the middle to upper troposphere is precipitation-favorable.In wet winters,the water vapor below 500 hPa is mainly transported by the anomalous southwesterly flow and the anomalous southern flow over the Indo-China Peninsula and the South China Sea area.The correlation coefficients of MEJS,EAMW(East Asian meridional wind) and EU(Eurasian pattern) to southern China precipitation in January are +0.65,-0.59 and-0.48 respectively,and the correlations for high-pass filtered data are +0.63,-0.55 and-0.44 respectively,the significant level is all at 99%.MEJS,EAMW and EU together can explain 49.4% variance in January precipitation.Explained variance for January and winter temperature by SBH,EU,WP(west Pacific pattern) and AO(Arctic Oscillation) are 47.2% and 51.5%,respectively.There is more precipitation in southern China during El Nio winters,and less precipitation during La Nia winters.And there is no clear evidence that the occurrence of anomalous temperature events in winter over southern China is closely linked to ENSO events.     

The secular acceleration of the Earth's spin

Summary. The power spectrum of the Earth's spin has important components with periods ranging from a few days to at least a few thousand years, and probably to the age of the Earth. The secular acceleration, as the term is used here, refers to the components with periods longer than three centuries. In the year 600, the secular acceleration was —19.9 ± 0.8 parts in 10⁹ per century, while the value at the present time is less than half this size. The spin acceleration has important contributions from tidal friction and from an effect that is proportional to the square of the magnetic dipole moment. When these contributions are subtracted from the observed acceleration, we are left with a contribution that amounts to +41 parts in 10⁹ per century. This amount probably results from an unknown combination of changes in the size of the core, in the amount of glaciation, and in the size of the gravitational constant.     

强抗旱胡麻新品种陇亚11号组织培养技术优化研究

针对胡麻组织培养中胚状体诱导率低、植株再生和生根困难等问题,以强抗旱胡麻优良新品种陇亚11号为实验材料,从培养基配置、外植体筛选、生根培养等方面开展系统研究,并进行相关技术优化,为胡麻组织培养技术提供一套更加适用的优化方案。结果表明,NAA与6-BA互作,诱导的愈伤组织深绿、致密、团状性好,玻璃化和疏松透明现象较少,二者浓度的变化对胚状体的诱导率平均值和最大值以及成苗率平均值等均高于优化前,其中MS+NAA（1.0 mg·L-1）+6-BA（0.5 mg·L-1)的培养基胚状体诱导率、成苗率均为所有处理中最高;NAA与PP333互作,生根率、平均生根数、平均根长均有明显的提高,其中1/2MS+AC(0.05%)+NAA(0.5 mg·L-1) +PP333（0.001 mg·L-1）的培养基生根效果最好,该培养基上培养的试管苗,根上发生较多的侧根和不定根,有利于幼苗吸收土壤中的水分和无机盐,提高移栽成活率。虽然优化后的培养基使胚状体的诱导率和成苗率均有明显增加,但通过胚状体分化的植株比率仍然偏低,与实际生产中的要求还有一定差距,不利于大量的繁殖移栽,仍需进一步探索研究。     

合肥地区1736－1991年年冬季平均气温序列的重建

本文根据宫廷档案资料“雨雪分寸”中合肥地区的降雪日数的记载，通过寻找其与年冬季平均温度的相关关系，重建了合肥地区从１７３６－１９９１年共２５６年的年冬季平均气温序列。分析表明，合肥地区的年冬季平均气温１８世纪较高，１９世纪下降，２０世纪又开始上升，至２０世纪４０年代达近２５０多年来气温最高值。另外，还发现了在１９世纪中叶（１８５１－１８７１年）有一个明显的温暖期。     

Aeolian dust transportation and deposition by near-surface winds in arid and semiarid China

Dustfall collections were carried out in April and May 2001 and in March 2002 at six sites in northern China.Our results showed that the total deposition of dust fractions 250 μm in diameter and the deposition of Fe both decreased exponentially with increasing distances from the source areas,and that the half-attenuation distance (HAD) for dust deposition was about 229 km in this re-gion.The HAD was closely related to the grain-size distribution of the dust,and the 15 to 20 μm fractions had the longest HAD.However,the fractions 15 μm in diameter can be easily adsorbed to coarse particles and deposited after only short distances,and the HAD for the fractions 15 to 100 μm in diameter showed a power relationship with the grain-size distribution.The HAD for Fe deposition was 233 km,which was a little longer than that of total dust deposition,which suggests that the Fe content is higher in fine particles than in coarse particles,as previous studies have suggested.In addition,our analysis showed that under the control of current climatic conditions,the coarse fractions in dust derived from northwestern China cannot be transported over long distances,instead,it is transported primarily by near-surface winds (3 km above the ground).The Fe in aeolian dust generated from arid and semiarid regions of China and deposited in the North Pacific region is usually transported by the upper westerlies.     

亚洲阻塞高压分类及其与东北冷涡活动和东北夏季低温的联系

利用1948~2009年美国环境预报中心(NCEP)500 hPa高度场逐日再分析资料,按照通用的阻塞高压天气学定义,采用机器自动识别方法,检索和分析近62 a亚洲夏季阻高活动时空变化特征,结果表明:共统计到1 337个阻塞高压个例,以生命期3~7 d的过程居多,占80.1%,阻高活动累计个数和累计天数集中区可分为偏东类(鄂霍次克海)、偏西类(乌拉尔山)、中间类(贝加尔湖)和其他类4类,其中中间类阻塞高压活动累计个数最多,占总个数的30.4%,偏东类次之,占27.5%,其他类占23.8%,偏西类最弱,占18.3%;20世纪90年代以来,乌拉尔山地区阻高处于明显偏弱期,鄂霍次克海阻高处于偏强期;但是,21世纪初叶,乌拉尔山地区阻高活动开始呈上升趋势,而鄂霍次克海阻高却呈明显下降趋势,值得关注;夏季阻塞高压与东北冷涡活动天数呈显著同期正相关,与长春、哈尔滨同期平均气温呈显著负相关;亚洲夏季阻塞高压是影响东北夏季低温重要的环流系统;鄂霍次克海阻高6月活动异常年,850hPa风距平场在120°E~140°E,40°N~55oN存在很强的偏东气流,有利于来自鄂霍次克海偏东北路径的冷空气入侵东北亚及中国东北地区。     

Fractionation of grain size in terrestrial sediment routing systems

Sediment is fractionated by size during its cascade from source to sink in sediment routing systems. It is anticipated, therefore, that the grain size distribution of sediment will undergo down‐system changes as a result of fluvial sorting processes and selective deposition. We assess this hypothesis by comparing grain size statistical properties of samples from within the erosional source region with those that have undergone different amounts of transport. A truncated Pareto distribution describes well the coarser half of the clast size distribution of regolith, coarse channel bed sediment and proximal debris flows (particularly their levees), as well as the coarser half of the clast size distribution of gravels that have undergone considerable amounts of transport in rivers. The Pareto shape parameter a evolves in response to mobilization, sediment transport and, importantly, the selective extraction of particles from the surface flow to build underlying stratigraphy. A goodness of fit statistic, the Kolmogorov–Smirnov vertical difference, illustrates the closeness of the observed clast size distributions to the Pareto, Weibull and log‐normal models as a function of distance from the depositional apex. The goodness of fit of the particle size distribution of regolith varies with bedrock geology. Bedload sediment at catchment outlets is fitted well by the log‐normal and truncated Pareto models, whereas the exponential Weibull model provides a less good fit. In the Eocene Escanilla palaeo‐sediment routing system of the south‐central Pyrenees, the log‐normal and truncated Pareto models provide excellent fits for distances of up to 80 km from the depositional apex, whereas the Weibull fit progressively worsens with increasing transport distance. A similar trend is found in the Miocene–Pliocene gravels of the Nebraskan Great Plains over a distance of >300 km. Despite the large fractionation in mean grain size and gravel percentage from source region to depositional sink, particle size distributions therefore appear to maintain log‐normality over a wide range of transport distance. Use of statistical models enables down‐system fractionation of sediment released from source regions to be better understood and predicted and is a potentially valuable tool in source‐to‐sink approaches to basin analysis.     

过去2000年冷暖变化的基本特征与主要暖期

根据近年国内外相关研究结果,分析了北半球与中国过去2000 年冷暖变化的阶段性,辨识了百年尺度暖期的起讫年代及其与20 世纪温暖程度的差别。结果表明:(1) 最近新建的多数北半球温度变化序列显示公元1-270 年温暖;271-840 年冷暖相间,但总体偏冷;841-1290年温暖;1291-1910 年寒冷;1911 年以后再次转为温暖;这些冷暖阶段虽分别与Lamb 指出的罗马暖期(约公元前1 世纪-4 世纪中期)、黑暗时代冷期(约4 世纪末-10 世纪前期)、中世纪暖期(约10 世纪中期-13 世纪末)、小冰期(约15-19 世纪) 以及20 世纪增暖大致对应,但各阶段的起讫时间与Lamb确定的时段存在一定差别。(2) 尽管过去2000 年冷暖变化过程及其变幅大小在中国境内各个区域间并不完全一致,但从全国平均看,中国与北半球百年尺度的冷暖波动阶段基本一致,仅起讫年代存在一定差异;其中公元1-200 年、551-760 年、941-1300 年及20世纪气候相对温暖,其他时段则相对寒冷。(3) 多数序列显示中世纪期间北半球的温暖程度至少与20 世纪相当。中国941-1300 年间的最暖百年和最暖30 年(暖峰) 的温度也略高于20 世纪,551-760 年间的最暖百年与20 世纪基本相当,但1-200 年间最暖百年的温暖程度则较20 世纪略低。     

The recent history of hydro-geomorphological processes in the upper Hangbu river system, Anhui Province, China

This paper describes 20th century climate and human impacts on terrestrial and fluvial systems in the Dabie Mountains, Anhui Province, China, based on analyses of four types of information. Analyses of particle size, mineral magnetism, organic carbon, nitrogen and phosphorus in a sediment core taken from the Longhekou reservoir, built in 1958 AD in the upper reaches of Hangbu River, provide an  45 year record of fluvial responses, while monitored meteorological and hydrological data provide records of climate and river discharge. Census data compiled for the local Shucheng County provide records of population and land use, complemented with analyses of satellite images. The Xiaotian river delivers over 65% of the total water and silt to the reservoir. Analyses indicate that the fluvial regime tracks the monsoon climate over seasonal timescales, but human activities have a strongly mediating effect on sediment supply, sediment delivery and, to a lesser extent, runoff over longer timescales. Notable periods of human impact on erosion include the Great Leap Forward (1958–1960) and Great Cultural Revolution (1966–1976). A rising trend in precipitation and new land use changes at the present time may be leading to an enhanced flood risk.     

我国南方冬季异常低温和异常降水事件分析

统计分析1951 年以来1 月份以及1880 年以来冬季, 我国南方的异常低温与降水事件, 结果表明1 月异常低温(温度距平< -1σ) 有12 次, 降水异常偏多(降水距平> +1") 有10 次, 冷湿组合有3 次(1969、1993、2008); 冬季异常低温有29 次, 降水异常偏多有16 次, 冷湿组合有2 次(1886/87、1904/05)。利用NCEP/NCAR 再分析资料等, 采用合成方法分析异常低温与异常降水事件时大气环流特征, 结果表明有利于南方低温的环流特征是: 西伯利亚高压、东亚大槽及东亚急流异常偏强。有利于降水偏多的环流特征是: 东亚大槽偏弱; 200 hPa 上中东急流异常偏强、东亚急流偏弱; 东亚从对流层低层到中高层都有异常南风。当发生冷湿组合时, 低温主要是受到西伯利亚冷高压异常偏强的影响, 而降水主要受对流层850 hPa 至200 hPa 环流异常的作用。南方冬季水汽主要来自南支槽的西南气流和南海上空的转向 气流, 在降水偏多时有异常西南水汽输送距平。西伯利亚高压、欧亚遥相关型、西太平洋遥相关型、北极涛动4 个环流因子能解释南方1 月和冬季气温方差的47.2%和51.5%; 而中东 急流、东亚经向风、欧亚遥相关型则能共同解释南方1 月和冬季降水方差的49.4%和48.4%。 统计降水异常与ENSO 的对应关系表明, 当发生El Niño 事件时南方冬季降水偏多的概率较 大, 当发生La Niña 事件时, 降水偏少的概率较大, 而温度与ENSO 没有明显的统计相关。