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1.
A previous application of extreme-value statistics to the first, second and third largest geomagnetic storms per solar cycle for nine solar cycles is extended to fourteen solar cycles (1844–1993). The intensity of a geomagnetic storm is measured by the magnitude of the daily aa index, rather than the half-daily aa index used previously. Values of the conventional aa index (1868– 1993), supplemented by the Helsinki Ak index (1844–1880), provide an almost continuous, and largely homogeneous, daily measure of geomagnetic activity over an interval of 150 years. As in the earlier investigation, analytic expressions giving the probabilities of the three greatest storms (extreme values) per solar cycle, as continuous functions of storm magnitude (ad), are obtained by least-squares fitting of the observations to the appropriate theoretical extreme-value probability functions. These expressions are used to obtain the statistical characteristics of the extreme values; namely, the mode, median, mean, standard deviation and relative dispersion. Since the Ak index may not provide an entirely homogeneous extension of the aa index, the statistical analysis is performed separately for twelve solar cycles (1868–1993), as well as nine solar cycles (1868–1967). The results are utilized to determine the expected ranges of the extreme values as a function of the number of solar cycles. For fourteen solar cycles, the expected ranges of the daily aa index for the first, second and third largest geomagnetic storms per solar cycle decrease monotonically in magnitude, contrary to the situation for the half-daily aa index over nine solar cycles. The observed range of the first extreme daily aa index for fourteen solar cycles is 159–352 nT and for twelve solar cycles is 215–352 nT. In a group of 100 solar cycles the expected ranges are expanded to 137–539 and 177–511 nT, which represent increases of 108% and 144% in the respective ranges. Thus there is at least a 99% probability that the daily aa index willAlso Visiting Reader in Physics, University of Sussex, Palmer, Brighton, BN1 9QH, UK  相似文献   

2.
The method for searching statistical relations between different solar wind parameters and the aa index of geomagnetic activity, which formed the basis for restoring the average annual values of some of these parameters (indicating that the solar coronal magnetic field increased by not more than 10% during the last century), has been proposed.  相似文献   

3.
The solar wind velocity distribution in the heliosphere is best represented using a v-map, where velocity contours are plotted in heliographic latitude-longitude coordinates. It has already been established that low-speed regions of the solar wind on the source surface correspond to the maximum bright regions of the K-corona and the neutral line of the coronal magnetic field. In this analysis, v-maps on the source surface for Carrington rotations (CRs) 1787-1795, during 1987, have been prepared using the interplanetary scintillation measurements at Research Institute of Atmospherics (RIA), Nagoya Univ., Japan. These v-maps were then used to study the time evolution of the low-speed (\leq450 km s−1) belt of the solar wind and to deduce the distribution of solar wind velocity on the heliospheric current sheet. The low-speed belt of the solar wind on the source surface was found to change from one CR to the next, implying a time evolution. Instead of a slow and systematic evolution, the pattern of distribution of solar wind changed dramatically at one particular solar rotation (CR 1792) and the distributions for the succeeding rotations were similar to this pattern. The low-speed region, in most cases, was found to be close to the solar equator and almost parallel to it. However, during some solar rotations, they were found to be organised in certain longitudes, leaving regions with longitudinal width greater than 30 free of low-speed solar wind, i.e. these regions were occupied by solar wind with velocities greater than 450 km s−1. It is also noted from this study that the low-speed belt, in general, followed the neutral line of the coronal magnetic field, except in certain cases. The solar wind velocity on the heliospheric current sheet (HCS) varied in the range 300–585 km s−1 during the period of study, and the pattern of velocity distribution varied from rotation to rotation.  相似文献   

4.
Observations taken by aircraft and conventional platforms are used to investigate dynamical, physical, and radiative processes within a marine stratus cloud during the Canadian Atlantic Storms Program (CASP) II field project which took place over the east coast of Canada. Stratus which formed over the ocean on February 6, 1992 during the nighttime, is studied to analyze cloud top and base processes. The cloud was supercooled during the study period. Fluctuations and fluxes are calculated along constant flight altitude legs approximately 100 km long in space. The scales of structures larger than 5 km are removed from the analysis using a running average technique. Droplet spectra obtained by a forward scattering spectrometer probe (FSSP) were used in a 1-D radiative transfer model to calculate infrared (IR) fluxes and radiative heating rates. A heat conservation equation was used to estimate vertical air velocity (w a ) within the cloud. The results showed that, because of a warmer ocean surface, significant moisture and heat were transferred from the ocean surface to the boundary layer. The cloud base was at about 400 m height and the top was at about 1.4 km.w a at the cloud base was estimated about 5 cm s–1. Strong IR cooling rate at the cloud top was calculated to be 75°C day–1 for a 100 m thick layer. Negative skewness inw a , suggesting narrow downdrafts, was likely due to radiative cooling at the cloud top. The entrainment velocity was found to be about 1.5 cm s–1 at cloud top. Mean moisture and heat fluxes within the cloud were estimated to be comparable to those from the ocean surface. Vertical air velocity at the cloud top due to radiative cooling was found to be about –40 cm s–1.  相似文献   

5.
This work investigated an interrelationship between the monthly means of time derivatives of horizontal geomagnetic field, dH/dt, sunspot number, R z , and aa index for the period of substorms (from ?90 to ?1800 nT) during the years 1990–2009. A total of 232 substorms were identified during the period of study. The time derivative of horizontal geomagnetic field, dH/dt, used as a proxy for geomagnetically induced current (GIC) exhibited high positive correlation with sunspot number (0.86) and aa index (0.8998). The obtained geomagnetic activity is in 92.665% explicable by the combined effect of sunspot number and aa index. The distribution of substorms as a function of years gives a strong support for the existence of geomagnetic activity increases, which implies that as the sunspot number increases the base level of geomagnetic activity increases too.  相似文献   

6.
A comparison of the time variations in the geomagnetic field characteristics (the u and aa indices of geomagnetic activity) with the variation in the solar magnetic dipole inclination shows close agreement between these variations. The linear correlation coefficients between the u and aa indices, the u index and solar magnetic dipole inclination, and the aa index and solar magnetic dipole inclination are 0.93, 0.45, and 0.49, respectively. This makes it possible to extend studying the IMF evolution in the 11-year cycle of solar activity to the 170-year period beginning from 1835. It has been indicated that the time variation in the heliospheric current sheet (HCS) surface deviation from the solar magnetic equator plane, calculated based on the actual HCS configuration, is in good agreement with the time variation in the amplitude of the Fourier series second harmonics in a harmonic analysis of the series of daily data on the IMF sign in the vicinity of the Earth. The linear correlation coefficient is 0.9 in this case.  相似文献   

7.
A theory of the generation of plasma density irregularities with virtually no aspect sensitivity, in the lower ionosphere at high latitudes, by electron drifts aligned with the geomagnetic field, is presented. The theory is developed through fluid equations in which the destabilising mechanism involves positive feedback from electron collisional heating. When field aligned electron drift speeds exceed a few km s–1, this effect destabilises waves with wavelengths in excess of a few tens of metres in the lower E-region, where collisional effects are sufficiently large. Furthermore, the threshold conditions are almost independent of the wave propagation direction and the unstable waves propagate at speeds well below the ion acoustic speed. The role that this new instability may play in recent radar backscatter observations of short scale irregularities propagating in directions close to that of the geomagnetic field, in the lower E-region is also considered.  相似文献   

8.
Yearly averages of geomagnetic activity indices Ap for the years 1967–1984 are compared to the respective averages of v2 · Bs, where v is the solar wind velocity and Bs is the southward interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) component. The correlation of both quantities is known to be rather good. Comparing the averages of Ap with v2 and Bs separately we find that, during the declining phase of the solar cycle, v2 and during the ascending phase Bs have more influence on Ap. According to this observation (using Fourier spectral analysis) the semiannual and 27 days, Ap variations for the years 1932–1993 were analysed separately for years before and after sunspot minima. Only those time-intervals before sunspot minima with a significant 27-day recurrent period of the IMF sector structure and those intervals after sunspot minima with a significant 28–28.5-day recurrent period of the sector structure were used. The averaged spectra of the two Ap data sets clearly show a period of 27 days before and a period of 28–29 days after sunspot minimum. Moreover, the phase of the average semiannual wave of Ap is significantly different for the two groups of data: the Ap variation maximizes near the equinoxes during the declining phase of the sunspot cycle and near the beginning of April and October during the ascending phase of the sunspot cycle, as predicted by the Russell-McPherron (R-M) mechanism. Analysing the daily variation of ap in an analogue manner, the same equinoctial and R-M mechanisms are seen, suggesting that during phases of the solar cycle, when ap depends more on the IMF-Bs component, the R-M mechanism is predominant, whereas during phases when ap increases as v increases the equinoctial mechanism is more likely to be effective.  相似文献   

9.
The foF2 data obtained at Alma-Ata and Observatorio Del Ebro during the winter/spring of 2003–2004 are analyzed to compare and investigate the upper ionosphere variability at the two selected sites. The geomagnetic activity and the middle stratosphere dynamics, involving planetary wave (PW) activity, are analyzed for understanding the physical conditions and processes that can explain the observed ionospheric variability. By applying the same method of wavelet analysis to the data sets and doing a direct comparison of the results, two types of foF2 disturbances were found. The first type is 2–7-day oscillations, which appeared during periods of increased geomagnetic activity. The second type is oscillations arising from PW activity in the lower atmosphere. These consist of (1) 6–11-day oscillations arising from PW activity in lower atmospheric regions developed during the final stratosphere warming and indicating the timing of the transition from the winter to the summer circulation and (2) 9–13-day and 8–10-day oscillations mostly during the quiet level of geomagnetic activity, indicating a likely close relation with those in the geopotential height at the 1 hPa level for westward-propagating waves at 40°N, which strengthened during stratosphere warming events in January 2004. The time delay of the oscillations in the ΔfoF2 with respect to those in the geopotential height is about 10 days and it seems that the assumed ionosphere response can occur under weakened eastward zonal wind or relatively weak westward zonal wind (V<30 m s−1).  相似文献   

10.
The 2-D crustal velocity model along the Hirapur-Mandla DSS profile across the Narmada-Son lineament in central India (Murty et al., 1998) has been updated based on the analysis of some short and discontinuous seismic wide-angle reflection phases. Three layers, with seismic velocities of 6.5–6.7, 6.35–6.40 and 6.8 km s–1, and upper boundaries located approximately at 8, 17 and 22 km depth respectively, have been identified between the basement (velocity 5.9 km s–1) and the uppermost mantle (velocity 7.8 km s–1). The layer with 6.5–6.7 km s–1 velocity is thin and is less than 2-km deep between the Narmada north (at Katangi) and south (at Jabalpur) faults. The upper crust shows a horst feature between these faults, which indicates that the Narmada zone acts as a ridge between two pockets of mafic intrusion in the upper crust. The Moho boundary, at 40–44 km depth and the intra-crustal layers exhibit an upwarp suggesting that the Narmada faults have deep origins, involving deep-seated tectonics. A smaller intrusive thickness between the Narmada faults, as compared to those beyond these faults, suggests that the intrusive activities on the two sides are independent. This further suggests that the two Narmada faults may have been active at different geological times. The seismic model is constrained by 2-D gravity modeling. The gravity highs on either side of the Narmada zone are due to the effect of the high velocity/high density mafic intrusion at upper crustal level.  相似文献   

11.
The present article displays the results of theoretical investigation of the planetary ultra-low-frequency (ULF) electromagnetic wave structure, generation and propagation dynamics in the dissipative ionosphere. These waves are stipulated by a spatial inhomogeneous geomagnetic field. The waves propagate in different ionospheric layers along the parallels to the east as well as to the west and their frequencies vary in the range of (10–10−6) s−1 with a wavelength of order 103 km. The fast disturbances are associated with oscillations of the ionospheric electrons frozen in the geomagnetic field. The large-scale waves are weakly damped. They generate the geomagnetic field adding up to several tens of nanotesla (nT) near the Earth's surface. It is prescribed that the planetary ULF electromagnetic waves preceding their nonlinear interaction with the local shear winds can self-localize in the form of nonlinear long-living solitary vortices, moving along the latitude circles westward as well as eastward with a velocity different from the phase velocity of the corresponding linear waves. The vortex structures transfer the trapped particles of medium, as well as energy and heat. That is why such nonlinear vortex structures can be the structural elements of the ionospheric strong macro-turbulences.  相似文献   

12.
Method of short-term forecast intensity of geomagnetic storms, expected by effect Solar wind magnetic clouds in the Earth’s magnetosphere is developed. The method is based calculation of the magnetic field clouds distribution, suitable to the Earth, the initial satellite measurements therein components of the interplanetary magnetic field in the solar ecliptic coordinate system. Conclusion about the magnetic storm intensity is expected on the basis of analysis of the dynamics of the reduced magnetic field Bz component clouds and established communication intensity of geomagnetic storms on Dst-index values and Bz component of the interplanetary magnetic field vector.  相似文献   

13.
For a low-level geomagnetic satellite survey, for which the motion of the satellite converts spatial variation into temporal variation, the limit on accuracy may well be background temporal fluctuations. The sources of the temporal fluctuations are current systems external to the Earth and include currents induced in the Earth due to these sources. The internal sources consist primarily of two components, the main geomagnetic field with sources in the Earth's core and a crustal geomagnetic field.Power spectra of the vertical geomagnetic field internal component that would be observed by a spacecraft in circular orbit at various altitudes, due to satellite motion through the spatially varying geomagnetic field, are compared to power spectra of the natural temporal fluctuations of the geomagnetic field vertical component (natural noise) and to the power spectrum for typical fluxgate magnetometer instrument noise. The natural noise is shown to be greater than this typical instrument noise over the entire frequency range for which useful measurements of the geomagnetic field may be made, for all geomagnetic latitudes and all times. Thus there would be little benefit in reducing the instrument noise below the typical value of 10?4 gamma2 Hz?1 plus a 1/f component of 10 milligamma rms decade?1.For a given satellite altitude, there is a maximum frequency above which the natural noise is greater than the power spectrum of the crustal geomagnetic field vertical component. Below this maximum frequency, the situation is reversed. This maximum frequency depends on geomagnetic latitude (and to a lesser extent on time of day and season of year), being lower in the auroral zone than at lower latitudes. The maximum frequency is also lower at higher satellite altitudes. The maximum frequency determines the spatial resolution obtainable on a magnetic field map. The spatial resolution (for impulses) obtainable at low latitudes for a 100-km satellite altitude (possibly achievable by tethering a small satellite at this altitude to a space vehicle at a higher altitude) is 60 km, while at the auroral zone the obtainable spatial resolution is 100 km. At the higher satellite altitude of 300 km the obtainable spatial resolution is 230 km at low latitudes and 530 km at the auroral zone. At 500-km satellite altitude, the obtainable spatial resolution is 500 km at low latitudes, while maps cannot be made at all for the auroral zone unless the data are selected for “quiet” days.For the lower satellite altitudes, greater spatial resolution can be obtained than at higher altitudes. Furthermore since the crustal geomagnetic field power spectrum is larger at lower altitudes, the relative error due to the natural noise is less than for higher altitudes.  相似文献   

14.
The CUTLASS Finland HF radar has been operational since February 1995. The radar frequently observes backscatter during the midnight sector from a latitude range 70–75° geographic, latitudes often associated with the polar cap. These intervals of backscatter occur during intervals of substorm activity, predominantly in periods of relatively quiet magnetospheric activity, with Kp during the interval under study being 2-and KP for the day being only 8-. During August 1995 the radar ran in a high time resolution mode, allowing measurements of line-of-sight convection velocities along a single beam with a temporal resolution of 14s, and measurement of a full spatial scan of line-of-sight convection velocities every four minutes. Data from such scans reveal the radar to be measuring return flow convection during the interval of substorm activity. For three intervals during the period under study, a reduction in the spatial extent of radar backscatter occurred. This is a consequence of D region HF absorption and its limited extent in the present study is probably a consequence of the high latitude of the substorm activity, with the electrojet centre lying between 67° and 71° geomagnetic latitude. The high time resolution beam of the radar additionally demonstrates that the convection is highly time dependent. Pulses of equatorward flow exceeding 600 m s–1 are observed with a duration of 5 min and a repetition period of 8 min. Their spatial extent in the CUTLASS field of view was 400–500 km in longitude, and 300–400 km in latitude. Each pulse of enhanced equatorward flow was preceded by an interval of suppressed flow and enhanced ionospheric Hall conductance. The transient features are interpreted as being due to ionospheric current vortices associated with field aligned current pairs. The relationship between these observations and substorm phenomena in the magnetotail is discussed.  相似文献   

15.
Numerical calculations of the thermospheric and ionospheric parameters above EISCAT are presented for quiet geomagnetic conditions in summer. The Global Self-consistent Model of the Thermosphere, Ionosphere and Protonosphere (GSM TIP) was used. The numerical results were obtained both with a self-consistent calculation of the electric fields of magnetospheric and dynamo-action origin and with the magnetospheric electric fields only. It was found that the dynamo-electric field has some effect on the ionospheric convection pattern during quiet geomagnetic conditions. It has a marked effect mainly on the zonal neutral wind component above EISCAT (±20m/s at 140 km altitude). We have studied the effects of various field-aligned current (FAC) distributions on thermosphere/ionosphere parameters and we show that a qualitative agreement can be obtained with region-I and -II FAC zones at 75° and 65° geomagnetic latitude, respectively. The maximum FAC intensities have been assumed at 03–21 MLT for both regions with peak values of 2.5 × 10–7 Am–2 (region I) and 1.25 × 10–7 A m–2 (region II). These results are in agreement with statistical potential distribution and FAC models constructed by use of EISCAT data. The lack of decreased electron density in the night-time sector as observed by the EISCAT radar was found to be due to the spatial distribution of ionospheric convection resulting from electric fields of magnetospheric origin.  相似文献   

16.
Effect of the equatorward shift of the eastward and westward electrojets during magnetic storms main phase is analyzed based on the meridional chains of magnetic observatories EISCAT and IMAGE and several Russian observatories (geomagnetic longitude ≈110°, corrected geomagnetic latitudes 74°>φ>51°.) Magnetic storms of various Dst index intensity where the main phase falls on 1000 UT - 2400 UT interval were selected so that one of the observatory chains was located in the afternoon - near midnight sector of MLT. The eastward electrojet center shifts equatorward with Dst intensity increase: when Dst ≈ −50 nT the electrojet center is located at φ ≈ 62°, when Dst ≈ −300 nT it is placed at φ ≈ 54°. The westward electrojet center during magnetic storms main phase for intervals between substorms shifts equatorward with Dst increase: at φ ≈ 62° when Dst ≈ −100 nT and at φ ≈ 55° when Dst ≈ −300 nT. During substorms within the magnetic storms intervals the westward electrojet widens poleward covering latitudes φ ≈ 64°–65°. DMSP (F08, F10 and F11) satellite observations of auroral energy plasma precipitations at upper atmosphere altitudes were used to determine precipitation region structure and location of boundaries of various plasma domains during magnetic storms on May 10–11, 1992, February 5–7 and February 21–22, 1994. Interrelationships between center location, poleward and equatorward boundaries of electrojets and characteristic plasma regions are discussed. The electrojet center, poleward and equatorward boundaries along the magnetic observatories meridional chain were mapped to the magnetosphere using the geomagnetic field paraboloid model. The location of auroral energy oxygen ion regions in the night and evening magnetosphere is determined. Considerations are presented on the mechanism causing the appearance in the inner magnetosphere during active intervals of magnetic storms of ions with energy of tens KeV. In the framework of the magnetospheric magnetic field paraboloid model the influence of the ring current and magnetospheric tail plasma sheet currents on large-scale magnetosphere structure is considered.  相似文献   

17.
The EISCAT VHF radar (69.4°N, 19.1°E) has been used to record vertical winds at mesopause heights on a total of 31 days between June 1990 and January 1993. The data reveal a motion field dominated by quasi-monochromatic gravity waves with representative apparent periods of 30–40 min, amplitudes of up to 2.5 m s–1 and large vertical wavelength. In some instances waves appear to be ducted. Vertical profiles of the vertical-velocity variance display a variety of forms, with little indication of systematic wave growth with height. Daily mean variance profiles evaluated for consecutive days of recording show that the general shape of the variance profiles persists over several days. The mean variance evaluated over a 10 km height range has values from 1.2 m2s–2 to 6.5 m2s–2 and suggests a semi-annual seasonal cycle with equinoctial minima and solsticial maxima. The mean vertical wavenumber spectrum evaluated at heights up to 86 km has a slope (spectral index) of -1.36 ± 0.2, consistent with observations at lower heights but disagreeing with the predictions of a number of saturation theories advanced to explain gravity-wave spectra. The spectral slopes evaluated for individual days have a range of values, and steeper slopes are observed in summer than in winter. The spectra also appear to be generally steeper on days with lower mean vertical-velocity variance.  相似文献   

18.
The average annual values of the electric field and parameters of the solar wind and IMF from our time to 1868 have been estimated based on the statistical relation between the aa index of geomagnetic activity and the interplanetary medium parameters. This estimation indicates that the relative variations during the 20th century were observed in the electric field (25 ± 3%), the IMF vector component transverse with respect to the velocity (16 ± 3%), and the solar wind plasma velocity (9 ± 1%, 37 ± 4 km/s). The modulus of the IMF vector radial component increased by 9.0 ± 2.5% during this period.  相似文献   

19.
Based on vector magnetic data from the CHAMP German satellite, average daily spherical harmonic models of the main geomagnetic field to n = m = 10 have been constructed for the period from May 2001 to the end of 2009 at an interval of 4 days. The obtained 16 models, which were averaged over half a year, have been used to calculate the coordinates of the north and south magnetic poles (the points where magnetic field lines are vertical). The changes in these coordinates during these eight and a half years have been traced. Both poles continue moving northward and westward. The north magnetic pole has traveled 400 km during this period. The velocity of its motion has increased up to the year 2003, reaching 62.5 km yr−1, and then started decreasing and reached 45 km yr−1 by the end of 2009. In addition, the direction of motion changed from north-northwestward to northwestward; i.e., the pole started turning slightly towards Canada. The south magnetic pole moved slower by an order of magnitude and has traveled 42 km during this period. The coordinates of the geomagnetic (dipole) poles and the eccentric dipole parameters have also been calculated. The dynamics of these poles has been traced.  相似文献   

20.
We investigate the features of the planetary distribution of wave phenomena (geomagnetic pulsations) in the Earth’s magnetic shell (the magnetosphere) during a strong geomagnetic storm on December 14–15, 2006, which is untypical of the minimum phase of solar activity. The storm was caused by the approach of the interplanetary magnetic cloud towards the Earth’s magnetosphere. The study is based on the analysis of 1-min data of global digital geomagnetic observations at a few latitudinal profiles of the global network of ground-based magnetic stations. The analysis is focused on the Pc5 geomagnetic pulsations, whose frequencies fall in the band of 1.5–7 mHz (T ~ 2–10 min), on the fluctuations in the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) and in the solar wind density in this frequency band. It is shown that during the initial phase of the storm with positive IMF Bz, most intense geomagnetic pulsations were recorded in the dayside polar regions. It was supposed that these pulsations could probably be caused by the injection of the fluctuating streams of solar wind into the Earth’s ionosphere in the dayside polar cusp region. The fluctuations arising in the ionospheric electric currents due to this process are recorded as the geomagnetic pulsations by the ground-based magnetometers. Under negative IMF Bz, substorms develop in the nightside magnetosphere, and the enhancement of geomagnetic pulsations was observed in this latitudinal region on the Earth’s surface. The generation of these pulsations is probably caused by the fluctuations in the field-aligned magnetospheric electric currents flowing along the geomagnetic field lines from the substorm source region. These geomagnetic pulsations are not related to the fluctuations in the interplanetary medium. During the main phase of the magnetic storm, when fluctuations in the interplanetary medium are almost absent, the most intense geomagnetic pulsations were observed in the dawn sector in the region corresponding to the closed magnetosphere. The generation of these pulsations is likely to be associated with the resonance of the geomagnetic field lines. Thus, it is shown that the Pc5 pulsations observed on the ground during the magnetic storm have a different origin and a different planetary distribution.  相似文献   

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