A probabilistic model of seismicity: Kamchatka earthquakes

The catalog of Kamchatka earthquakes is represented as a probability space of three objects {Ω, $ \tilde F $ \tilde F P}. Each earthquake is treated as an outcome ω _i in the space of elementary events Ω whose cardinality for the period under consideration is given by the number of events. In turn, ω _i is characterized by a system of random variables, viz., energy class k_i, latitude φ _i , longitude λ _i , and depth h _i . The time of an outcome has been eliminated from this system in this study. The random variables make up subsets in the set $ \tilde F $ \tilde F and are defined by multivariate distributions, either by the distribution function $ \tilde F $ \tilde F (φ, λ, h, k) or by the probability density f(φ, λ, h, k) based on the earthquake catalog in hand. The probabilities P are treated in the frequency interpretation. Taking the example of a recurrence relation (RR) written down in the form of a power law for probability density f(k), where the initial value of the distribution function f(k ₀) is the basic data [Bogdanov, 2006] rather than the seismic activity A ₀, we proceed to show that for different intervals of coordinates and time the distribution f _elim(k) of an earthquake catalog with the aftershocks eliminated is identical to the distribution f _full(k), which corresponds to the full catalog. It follows from our calculations that f ₀(k) takes on nearly identical numeral values for different initial values of energy class k ₀ (8 ≤ k ₀ ≤ 12) f(k ₀). The difference decreases with an increasing number of events. We put forward the hypothesis that the values of f(k ₀) tend to cluster around the value 2/3 as the number of events increases. The Kolmogorov test is used to test the hypothesis that statistical recurrence laws are consistent with the analytical form of the probabilistic RR based on a distribution function with the initial value f(k ₀) = 2/3. We discuss statistical distributions of earthquake hypocenters over depth and the epicenters over various areas for several periods     

Patterns in the daily periodicity of low magnitude seismicity in Kamchatka

A daily periodicity in small (K ≤ 8. 0) Kamchatka earthquakes has been detected, with the maximum occurring during the nighttime. The effect was not observed throughout the area of study, but only in several zones. We show that the results are not affected by human and weather factors. A hypothesis is put forward to explain the physical causes of the effect, viz., that the daily periodicity of small earthquakes could be due to natural VLF electromagnetic radiation acting on the geologic medium. It is pointed out that the effect is related to the previously identified effect of natural electromagnetic radiation modulating the intensity of geoacoustic emission from rocks.     

On the seismicity of central Kamchatka before the 1997, M = 7.9 Kronotskii earthquake

We report results from a detailed study of seismicity in central Kamchatka for the period from 1960 to 1997 using a modified traditional approach. The basic elements of this approach include (a) segmentation of the seismic region concerned (the Kronotskii and Shipunskii geoblocks, the continental slope and offshore blocks), (b) studying the variation in the rate of M = 4.5–7.0 earthquakes and in the amount of seismic energy release over time, (c) studying the seismicity variations, (d) separate estimates of earthquake recurrence for depths of 0–50 and 50–100 km. As a result, besides corroborating the fact that a quiescence occurred before the December 5, 1997, M = 7.9 Kronotskii earthquake, we also found a relationship between the start of the quiescence and the position of the seismic zone with respect to the rupture initiation. The earliest date of the quiescence (decreasing seismicity rate and seismic energy release) was due to the M = 4.5–7.0 earthquakes at depths of 0–100 km in the Kronotskii geoblock (8–9 years prior to the earthquake). The intermediate start of the quiescence was due to distant seismic zones of the Shipunskii geoblock and the circular zone using the RTL method, combining the Shipunskii and Kronotskii geoblocks (6 years). Based on the low magnitude seismicity (M≥2.6) at depths of 0–70 km in the southwestern part of the epicentral zone (50–100 km from the mainshock epicenter), the quiescence was inferred to have occurred a little over 3 years (40 months) before the mainshock time and a little over 2 years (25 months) in the immediate vicinity of the epicenter (0–50 km). These results enable a more reliable identification of other types of geophysical precursors during seismic quiescences before disastrous earthquakes.     

A look at global seismicity during 1999 in the longer-term time frame

An analysis and discussion of the main features and effects of the 1999global seismicity based especially on the inferred patterns of strong(M_w 7) earthquakes using NEIC/USGS data is presented.Based on the above data and their statistical features (see also Table 1)one may state that from the point of view of occurrence rate (number/yr)the 1999 global seismicity was fairly regular, but from the moment (orenergy) release standpoint it is well under the long-term average. The spacepartition was again rather typical and time distribution was quasi-Poissonian,noteworthy, the 1999 worldwide seismicity had an anomalously high deathtoll, to be discussed later. Two main new insights are brought by ouranalysis: (i) a (mega)quiescence along the whole south American segmentof circum-Pacific earthquake belt, which was inferred and rated asanomalous while it was underway and which, in retrospect, ended with thegreat (M_w = 8.4 HRV) 2001 Arequipa (Peru) event; (ii) an intriguingmonotonous rate decrease within only magnitude class 5.0 to 5.9 duringthe analyzed period (i.e., 1990–1999).     

Influence of statistical time range on estimating seismicity parameters

Introduction At present, the current probabilistic method of seismic hazard analysis in the world is gener-ally adopted in seismic safety evaluation (Cornell, 1968). It supposed that earthquake occurrence conforms to the segmented Poisson distribution model in time and space and the proportional rela-tion among earthquakes of various magnitudes obeys the cut-exponential distribution law in a sta-tistical area in compiling Seismic Intensity Zoning Map in China (1990) owing to the temporal- sp…     

自然时间域中的地震序列参数分析

自然时间χ是Varotsos等于2001年提出的一种新的时间域, 其将复杂系统的时间序列在自然时间域中进行分析,能够有效地提取有用信号并提高相关结果的准确性,从而更容易获得复杂系统的动态特征.文中对自然时间法进行了简单介绍,选取中国地震台网中心1978—2014年地震目录中震级排序前30的震例,计算每次地震的归一化能量在自然时间域中的方差κ₁及其变异系数β,并将方差κ₁作为序列参数,利用变异系数β对序列参数κ₁进行定性分析,并在此基础上,对序列参数κ₁进行定量分析.研究结果表明:30次震例中有21次震例的地震序列参数κ₁自震前半小时至几个月开始持续在0.07上下波动,并在主震发生前迅速下降至0值附近.此外,还简单讨论了定量分析中时间窗口的选择以及分析结果中可能出现的特殊情况.本文的研究结果对我国地震事件的回溯性研究及地震预测研究具有一定的指导意义.      

Seismoionospheric effects in the F2 layer over Kamchatka

By comparing the data of ionospheric radio sounding at Petropavlovsk and Magadan stations, we eliminated the identical disturbances induced by geomagnetic storms and identified the ionospheric responses to seismic activity. It was found that strong earthquakes in the area of Petropavlovsk station are preceded by positive ionospheric variations which are more pronounced the higher the magnitude of the earth-quake.     

Space and time variations of the runoff of Kamchatka Krai rivers

The current features of the space and time variations of river runoff in Kamchatka Krai have been considered. Two relatively long cycles have been shown to exist in water runoff variations in the major portion of the examined rivers. The renewable water resources were increasing until 1970–1980, while in the following years (up to 2010), they were gradually decreasing. Current data on river runoff were used to prove the existence of three zonal types of water regime in Kamchatka Krai; five azonal types of annual runoff distribution are characterized. One of them (nearly uniform annual distribution caused by the predominance of groundwater recharge) has been theoretically predicted in the classification proposed by M.I. L’vovich, though without factual confirmation. The specific features of water regime of rivers whose basins lie on the slopes of active volcanoes are considered for the first time. This type of regime typically shows alternating periods of the presence and absence of surface runoff in river channels, corresponding to the inflow of snowmelt or rainfall runoff at high level of subsoil water (when channel deposits are fully saturated with water) or at its low position (when moisture is deficient).     

A new measure of seismicity

Summary In this paper an attempt has been made to analyse the World shallow focus earth-quakes by the method ofGutenberg andRichter. Frequency-magnitude analysis of various earthquakes indicate that in the relation logN=a–b M, the ratio (b/a)^–1 satisfies fairly well the seismicity of a region and it is felt that this ratio may be used as a measure of seismicity for a given region.     

Prediction of maximum magnitude and original time of reservoir induced seismicity

Introduction Prediction of RIS includes earlier stage prediction and seismic tendency prediction. In earlier stage, the prediction is to predict the possibility and maximum magnitude of RIS before reservoir are built up. It is made up on the basis of geological condition and the definite method and the statistical model method are usually used. The definite method by analogy with geological condi-tion is to analyze and sum up the main conditions of RIS. Using the main conditions compared w…     

Stratospheric aerosol dynamics over Kamchatka and its association with geophysical processes

The dynamics of aerosol layers in comparison with geomagnetic and ionospheric data has been studied based on the nighttime single-frequency lidar sounding of the atmosphere over Kamchatka at altitudes of 10 to 90 km. The relation of the aerosol density to solar, magnetic, and ionospheric activity has been studied, and the stratospheric aerosol formation mechanisms have been considered. It has been indicated that variations in the aerosol density correlate with radiowave absorption, perturbations of the ionospheric parameters, and geomagnetic characteristics. The spatial and time scales of aerosol layers have been estimated. The role of stratospheric aerosol as an indicator of geophysical processes is discussed.     

2010年震情述评

1 全球地震活动概况 据中国地震台网测定,2010年全球共发生7级以上地震28次(表1),最大地震为2月27日智利8.8级地震(图1).与2009年相比,全球地震频次和能量释放明显增加.2010年全球7级以上地震活动有以下特点： 2010年全球共发生7级以上地震28次,明显高于1900年以来的平均水平(18次/年),与2009年(20次)相比,地震频次明显增加.2010年南美板块西边界和印度-澳大利亚板块活跃,全球28次7级以上地震中有16次分布在印度-澳大利亚板块的北边界和东边界上,5次在南美板块西边界,4次在菲律宾板块边界,2次在北美板块边界,1次在中国青藏块体边缘地区,显示出空间分布相对集中的特点(图1).     

2009年震情述评

<正>1全球地震活动概况据中国地震台网测定,2009年全球共发生7级以上地震20次(表1),最大地震为9月30日萨摩亚群岛地区8.0级地震(图1)。与2008年相比,全球地震频次略有增加,释放的     

Rate of seismicity of the dead sea region over the past 4000 years

The results of two millennia of earthquake documentation, a few decades of macroseismic and instrumental routine seismological observations and five months of microearthquake monitoring, are used to estimate the rate of seismic activity of the Dead Sea fault. It is found that these vastly diverse data which combine long- and short-term tectonic processes, are in good accord with the formula:

$\text{log}{}_{10}\text{N=2.54 ? 0.86M}{}_{\mathrm{<mtext>L</mtext>}}$

where N is the annual number of events of local magnitude M_L or greater. If this equation is extrapolated to ca. 2000 B.C., it yields a Richter magnitude M_s = 7 for the event of Sodom and Gomorrah which is believed to be associated with the strongest earthquake in the region during historical times.Comparing our findings with the results of other investigators in Turkey, Greece, Aegean Sea and Iran, we note that the b values along the Syrian-African rift zone (0.78–0.86) are smaller than those in Greece and its surrounding seas (0.94–1.16).     

运用地震活动时间扫描分析方法的综合预测信度预测地震时间的研究

认为地震活动度5、P(b)值、A(b)值、b值、小震调制比Rm、地震时间熵Q^l、算法复杂性AC、地震非均匀度GL、多分维均值Dq、地震集中度C值、地震演化指数YH、地震强度熵Q^E、G-R关系偏离度η、缺震和等效震级M^*等15种地震活动时间扫描分析方法对东南沿海地震带西段4．8级以上地震的发震时间具有一定的预测能力,并将这些方法在震前所显示的异常同步性引伸为地震时间预测信度同步性,初步确定了各种地震活动参数首次出现异常后4．8级以上地震发生在不同时段上的信度,证实了震前预测地震时间信度的同步性要远好于异常同步性,进而计算出这15种分析方法的综合预测信度。研究发现,运用综合预测信度可以较为明确地预测出M≥4．8级地震的发生时段,如果在所预测时段内同步发生了地震活动度．S、P(b)、A(b)和b值异常(并非都要全部发生),则有可能做出6个月内发震的短期预报。     

A new method for computation of seismicity

Summary Seismicity of a region is defined as a surface integral of the local seismicity in that region divided by its area. Local seismicity results from the assumed scattering of each epicentre according to normal distribution as continuous point function It is represented by the sum of the products of all seismic energies taken into consideration and the distribution functions of the concerned epicentres. For a plane rectangular region a practicable formula for computation of seismicity is given by means of the error integral.Publication No 25 of the Institut für Geodynamik, 69 Jena (GDR), Burgweg 11. Forschungsgemeinschaft der Deutschen Akademie der Wissenschaften zu Berlin.     

A fracture-mechanical cellular automaton model of seismicity

We present a cellular automaton model which simulates the process of seismogenesis using rules for evolution which are derived from the field of fracture mechanics, and include an interplay of positive and negative feedbacks. We describe the implementation of this model, and its analysis, in a massively parallel environment using the Connection Machine. Starting from a lattice with a fractal distribution of fracture toughnesses, theb value evolves in a way which closely mimics both the evolutions ofb value observed in the laboratory and derived from earthquake catalogues, reaching a broad and irregular maximum in the period preceding a major event, and declining rapidly during catastrophic failure. We conclude that the processes modelled are a reasonable representation of those occurring in Nature, and that the cellular automaton paradigm is a valuable way of simulating these processes on a large scale in an economical manner.     

On the eruptions, deformation, and seismicity of Klyuchevskoy Volcano, Kamchatka in 1986–2005 and the mechanisms of its activity

The eruptions, seismicity, and deformations, the properties of the magma feeding, and the mechanism of the activity of Klyuchevskoy, a giant basaltic volcano in Kamchatka, are considered. Twenty-eight author’s papers on the above subjects, published from 1985 to 2006, are reviewed. The activity of Klyuchevskoy the adventive and summit eruptions of Klyuchevskoy from 1986 to 2005 is described. The seismicity of Klyuchevskoy from 1986 to 2005 and its relation to eruptions are considered. It was inferred from geodetic measurements that the center of the magmatic pressure beneath the volcano moved in the depth range from 3 to 25 km during the period from 1979 to 2005. Based on previously developed models and observations from 1986 to 2005, the main properties of the Klyuchevskoy magma feeding system and the magma ascent in five major parts of the system are described and characterized: near the top of the plunging Pacific plate (with a depth of approximately 160 km), in the asthenosphere (160 to 40 km), in the region of the intermediate magma chamber where the magmas coming from below are accumulated (40 to 20 km), in the crust (20 to 5 km), and in the upper part of the system (from a depth of 5 km under the volcanic edifice to the crater at an altitude of 4.75 km). A comparison between the outputs from the summit and adventive eruptions on Klyuchevskoy as functions of time for the period from 1978 to 2005 shows that the probability of adventive eruptions should increase in the future.     

天然和人为地震活动性的对比研究

为了充分发挥现有的区域性、地方性数字地震台站在防震减灾中的作用，中国地震局地球物理研究所与美国达拉斯南卫理大学地球科学系合作开展“中美合作延庆一怀来盆地和海城地区天然和人为地震活动性的对比研究”。该合作项目以北京西北的延庆一怀来盆地与东北辽宁的海城地区作为流动地震观测试验场，计划在现有台网的基础上，在近震源与区域性的距离上布设15套由STS—2型宽频带数字地震仪组成的流动地震台网加密观测，以改善在区域性距离上台距过长、不利于分析、解释、研究所观测到地震记录的状况。2002年秋，双方在河北怀来一带首先架设了5个宽频带数字地震台并随即投入观测。到2003年3月上旬，中方又在预定地点架设了另5个宽频带数字地震台。目前，已建成的10个宽频带数字地震台仪器运行正常，运用已获得的研究区内天然和人为地震的高质量记录，合作双方按照计划开展了相关的研究工作。