Source study of two small earthquakes of Delhi, India, and estimation of ground motion from future moderate, local events

We study source characteristics of two small, local earthquakes which occurred in Delhi on 28 April 2001 (Mw3.4) and 18 March 2004 (Mw2.6). Both earthquakes were located in the heart of New Delhi, and were recorded in the epicentral region by digital accelerographs. The depths of the events are 15 km and 8 km, respectively. First motions and waveform modeling yield a normal-faulting mechanism with large strike-slip component. The strike of one of the nodal planes roughly agrees with NE–SW orientation of faults and lineaments mapped in the region. We use the recordings of the 2004 event as empirical Green’s functions to synthesize expected ground motions in the epicentral region of a Mw5.0 earthquake in Delhi. It is possible that such a local event may control the hazard in Delhi. Our computations show that a Mw5.0 earthquake would give rise to PGA of ~200 to 450 gal, the smaller values occurring at hard sites. The estimate of corresponding PGV is ~6 to 15 cm/s. The recommended response spectra, Sa, 5% damping, for Delhi, which falls in zone IV of the Indian seismic zoning map, may not be conservative enough at soft sites for a postulated Mw5.0 local earthquake.     

Ground motion observations and simulation for local earthquakes in the Campi Flegrei volcanic area

Ground motion produced by low magnitude earthquakes can be used to predict peak values in high seismic risk areas where large earthquakes data are not available. In the present work 20 local earthquakes (M_D∈[?0.3, 2.2]) occurred in the Campi Flegrei caldera during the last decade were analyzed. We followed this strategy: empirical relations were used to calibrate synthetic modeling, accounting for the source features and wave propagation effects. Once the source and path parameters of ground motion simulation were obtained from the reference data set, we extrapolated scenarios for stronger earthquakes for which real data are not available. The procedure is structured in two steps: (1) evaluation of ground motion prediction equation for Campi Flegrei area and assessment of input parameters for the source, path and site effects in order to use the finite fault stochastic approach (EXSIM code); (2) simulation of two moderate-to-large earthquake scenarios for which only historical data or partial information are available (M_w4.2 and M_w5.4). The results show that the investigated area is characterized by high attenuation of peak amplitude and not negligible site effects. The stochastic approach has revealed a good tool to calibrate source, path and site parameters on small earthquakes and to generate large earthquake scenario. The investigated magnitude range represents a lower limit to apply the stochastic method as a calibration tool, due to the small size of involved faults (fault length around 200/300 m).     

Ground motion attenuation relations of small and moderate earthquakes in Sichuan region

On the basis of 10 935 broadband velocity records of 135 earthquakes (ML3.0-6.4 and epicentral distance of 26-623 km) occurred from May 12 to June 10 in 2008, which are collected from 27 bedrock stations included in Sichuan Earthquake Monitoring Network, the corresponding acceleration records are obtained by a real-time simulation method. Then by regression analysis on the data, the relation between the peak ground acceleration and velocity attenuation of small and moderate bedrock earthquakes occurred in S...     

Stochastic modeling of Iranian earthquakes and estimation of ground motion for future earthquakes in Greater Tehran

Strong-motion data from eight significant well-documented earthquakes in Iran have been simulated using a stochastic modeling technique for finite faults proposed by Beresnev and Atkinson [Bull Seismol Soc Am 87 (1997) 67–84; Seism Res Lett 69 (1998) 27–32]. The database consists of 61 three-component records from eight earthquakes of magnitude ranging from M 6.3 to M 7.4, recorded at hypocentral distances up to 200 km. The model predictions are in good agreement with available Iranian strong-motion data as evidenced by near-zero average of differences between logarithms of the observed and predicted values for all frequencies. The strength factor, sfact, a quantity that controls the high-frequency radiation from the source is determined, on an event-by-event basis, by fitting simulated to observed response spectra.     

Ground motion spatial correlation fitting methods and estimation uncertainty

Ground shaking intensity varies spatially in earthquakes, and many studies have estimated correlations of intensity from past earthquake data. This paper presents a framework for quantifying uncertainty in the estimation of correlations and true variability in correlations from earthquake to earthquake. A procedure for evaluating estimation uncertainty is proposed and used to evaluate several methods that have been used in past studies to estimate correlations. The results indicate that a weighted least squares algorithm is most effective in estimating spatial correlation models and that earthquakes with at least 100 recordings are needed to produce informative earthquake-specific estimates of spatial correlations. The proposed procedure is also used to distinguish between estimation uncertainty and the true variability in model parameters that exist in a given data set. The estimation uncertainty is seen to vary between well-recorded and poorly recorded earthquakes, whereas the true variability is more stable.     

Ground motion directionality in the 2010–2011 Canterbury earthquakes

This paper examines the observed directionality of ground motions in the Christchurch urban area during the 2010–2011 Canterbury, New Zealand earthquakes. A dataset of ground motions recorded at 20 strong motion stations over 10 different earthquake events is utilized to examine the ratios of various response spectral directionality definitions and the orientation of the maximum direction. Because the majority of previous related studies have utilized overlapping ground motion datasets from the NGA database, the results of this study provide a largely independent assessment of these ground motion aspects. It is found that the directionality ratio between the maximum (100th percentile) and 50th percentile orientation‐independent spectral acceleration is similar to that obtained from recent studies. Ground motions from the 4 September 2010 Darfield earthquake are shown to exhibit strong directionality for source‐to‐site distances up to R_rup = 30 km, notably further than results from a previous study, which suggests that such effects are generally limited to R_rup < 5 km. The adopted dataset also offers the unique potential to consider site‐specific effects on directionality ratios and maximum direction orientations; however, in both cases, site‐specific effects are found not to be significant in the observed empirical results. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

四川地区地震动峰值衰减规律研究

基于四川省地震监测台网27个基岩台站,2008年5月12日——2008年6月10日105次地震（震级ML=4.0——6.4,震中距△=26——623km）的8505条宽频带速度记录,利用实时仿真方法得到了相应的加速度记录,进而对数据进行回归分析,获得了四川地区基岩场地中小地震峰值加速度和峰值速度的衰减关系,并用最近发生的一次4.8级地震对该规律进行了验证．通过四川台网的记录,提出了符合四川地质条件的衰减关系      

Ground motion prediction equations based on shallow crustal earthquakes in Georgia and the surrounding Caucasus

Strong ground motions caused by earthquakes with magnitudes ranging from 3.5 to 6.9 and hypocentral distances of up to 300 km were recorded by local broadband stations and three-component accelerograms within Georgia’s enhanced digital seismic network. Such data mixing is particularly effective in areas where strong ground motion data are lacking. The data were used to produce models based on ground-motion prediction equations (GMPEs), one benefit of which is that they take into consideration information from waveforms across a wide range of frequencies. In this study, models were developed to predict ground motions for peak ground acceleration and 5%-damped pseudo-absolute-acceleration spectra for periods between 0.01 and 10 s. Short-period ground motions decayed faster than long-period motions, though decay was still in the order of approximately 1/r. Faulting mechanisms and local soil conditions greatly influence GMPEs. The spectral acceleration (SA) of thrust faults was higher than that for either strike-slip or normal faults but the influence of strike-slip faulting on SA was slightly greater than that for normal faults. Soft soils also caused significantly more amplification than rocky sites.     

中小震近场地震动估计中地震动衰减关系的适用性分析

核工程场地设计基准地震动确定中涉及弥散地震的地震动估计，这导致中小震近场地震动估计成为被关注的研究课题。本文基于一些中小震近场地震动记录资料，分析和探讨了国内外多种地震动衰减关系对中小震近场地震动估计的适用性问题，并结合我国几个核工程地震问题研究工作的实践对中小震近场地震动衰减关系确定的思路和原则提出了建议。     

Ground motion attenuation relation for small to moderate earthquakes in Fujian region, China

We collect 1974 broad-band velocity records of 94 earthquakes (ML=2.8~4.9, △=13~462 km) from seven stations of the Fujian Seismic Network from March 1999 to March 2007. Using real-time simulation, we obtain the corresponding acceleration and then adopt different models to analyze the seismic data. As a result, a new attenuation relationship between PGA and PGV of the small and moderate earthquakes on bedrock site in Fujian region is established. The Yongchun earthquake occurred recently verifies the attenuation relationship well. This paper provides a new approach for studying the ground motion attenuation relationship using velocity records.     

UK 1-D regional velocity models by analysis of variance of P-wave travel times from local earthquakes

A method is presented for deriving 1-D velocity depth models from earthquake bulletin data. The models can be used as initial models for more advanced modelling techniques such as tomographic inversion. The method is useful when there is little or no refraction and long-range reflection survey data. The bulletin travel times are subjected to an analysis of variance, where they are separated into source, distance, and receiving station terms. The distance terms describe the variation of travel time with distance, and the associated trend lines allow 1-D velocity models for the crustal layers to be determined. The velocity models provide an average crustal model for the region derived from local data. This does not include superficial layers which are necessarily poorly determined. Earthquake bulletin P-wave data from propagation paths across three different regions of the UK are employed to illustrate the use of the technique.     

Ground motion directionality inferred from a survey of minaret damage during the 1999 Kocaeli and Düzce, Turkey earthquakes

Directionality of ground motions has been discussed in near-source groundmotion study. This is interesting from the point of structural response.Dominance of the fault normal (FN) component has been reported inrelation to fault rupture direction based on the observation recordsobtained in the source area (e.g.. Somerville et al., 1996). The authorsperformed the damage survey of the two Turkey earthquakes in 1999, theKocaeli and the Düzce earthquake, and realized that minaret is a goodtarget to investigate the ground motion directionality, because a minaret isa simple cantilever structure without structural directionality. This paperdescribes the ground motion directionality based on the survey of minaretdamages during the two earthquakes in Turkey. From the damage survey,it is found that the fault normal direction was dominant with a certaindistance from the fault, say, less than 1km. While, at the region withshorter distances, the damage direction was not fault normal but about40^° from the fault strike. Discussion is addressed for the specificdamage direction inferred from the minaret damage near the fault.     

Ground motion prediction equations derived from the Italian strong motion database

We present a set of ground motion prediction equations (GMPEs) derived for the geometrical mean of the horizontal components and the vertical, considering the latest release of the strong motion database for Italy. The regressions are performed over the magnitude range 4?C6.9 and considering distances up to 200?km. The equations are derived for peak ground acceleration (PGA), peak ground velocity (PGV) and 5%-damped spectral acceleration at periods between 0.04 and 2?s. The total standard deviation (sigma) varies between 0.34 and 0.38?log₁₀ unit, confirming the large variability of ground shaking parameters when regional data sets containing small to moderate magnitude events (M?<?6) are used. The between-stations variability provides the largest values for periods shorter than 0.2?s while, for longer periods, the between-events and between-stations distributions of error provide similar contribution to the total variability.     

Moment and duration of shallow earthquakes from Love-wave modelling for regional distances

Love waves from five earthquakes in southwest Germany, Italy, Yugoslavia, Greece and Algeria, as recorded at the broadband Gräfenberg array in eastern Bavaria, are modelled in detail using an extended reflectivity method. The focal mechanisms are taken from the literature or determined from long-period WWNSS data. The theoretical double-couple moment function used for modelling increases smoothly during the risetime T from zero to the seismic moment M₀. T and M₀ are determined by matching the observed and theoretical Love-wave seismograms in the long-period WWNSS frequency band. T is approximately equal to the rupture duration; values from 1.4 to 20 s are found. Seismic moments generally agree within a factor of about two with those found by other authors from larger data sets. The earthquakes in southwest Germany and Greece were simple events and can be modelled very well by one double couple. In the case of the other earthquakes, the theoretical Love-wave seismograms are too short. For these earthquakes there is some independent evidence for a multiple-event nature. This evidence is condensed into source models consisting of two or three double couples representing separate and complete sub-earthquakes, which then explain the observations quite well. In the case of the Algerian earthquake, the long Love-wave duration may also be due to complications in structure along the wavepath across the Mediterranean and the Alps. The present results show that accurate Love-wave modelling for a single station at regional distance from an epicentre is a reliable method for estimation of seismic moment and rupture duration. Use of a digitally recording station with large dynamic range allows events over a large magnitude interval to be studied. The Gräfenberg array is well suited for such an investigation of European and North African earthquakes.     

Ground motion and probabilistic hazard

It might be thought that an empirical ground motion prediction model has only to describe the variations in the input data set as accurately as possible in order to be useful, with the proviso that the data set is reasonably extensive and well-selected. If the model is to be used in probabilistic seismic hazard assessment, however, the model will probably be subject to extrapolation beyond the parameter space within which it was constructed, especially for hazard at low annual probabilities. In this case, features of the model, especially its functional form, may turn out to have unexpected and undesirable implications. The end result can be conclusions about the hazard that are clearly not in accordance with commonsense. In this study, two test cases are used to examine the application of some recent ground motion models to probabilistic hazard studies. Problems are found that suggest that, although a ground motion model may be a correct representation of its data set, the effects of the functional form applied can be such that it becomes doubtful whether the model should be used for probabilistic hazard purposes.     

Seismicity in subduction zones from local and regional network observations

The data provided by local and regional seismograph networks are essential for the solution of many problems of subduction-zone seismology. The capabilities of such networks are limited by the instrumentation currently in common use and the unfavorable source-station geometry often imposed by the regional geography. Nevertheless, important contributions have come from the data gathered in many of the earth's subduction zones. The accuracy of hypocenter locations based on regional data is affected by the complex velocity structures characteristic of subduction zones, but the problems are now well-understood. Examples of numerous studies of the spatial configurations of the seismicity in subduction zones and consequent interpretations of seismogenesis and subduction processes are reviewed. Studies of the distributions of earthquakes in time and with magnitude, for events down to the microearthquake level, have the potential for clarifying the earthquake-generating processes and, possibly, a basis for earthquake prediction. Other uses of local and regional network data have been for investigations of coda-Q and the identification of asperities in subduction zones.     

Attenuation characteristics of ground motion intensity from earthquakes with intermediate depth

Data of the intermediate depth (the Geioyo and the Shizuoka) earthquakes in Japan recorded in a dense network is analysed and compared with various available attenuation relations. The approach of Midorikawa (Midorikawa S., 1993, Technophysics 218, 287–295) based on the empirical Greens function technique of Irikura (Irikura, K., 1986, Proceedings of the 7th Japan Earthquake Engineering Symposium, pp. 151–156.) has been used to model the rupture responsible for these earthquakes and peak ground acceleration are simulated at selected observation points. The method presented in this work includes the transmission effect in a multiple layer crustal model for a finite fault earthquake source model. Sharp attenuation rate is seen for such intermediate depth earthquakes which is difficult to explain through conventional attenuation relations. Detail study of the methodology and comparison of results shows that the transmission factor plays an important role for the sharp attenuation rate for intermediate-to deep-focus earthquakes.     

Time series modelling of strong ground motion from multiple event earthquakes

Large earthquakes are often made up of several subevents. Thus the cumulative damage is higher than for single event earthquakes. Many procedures have been developed to simulate earthquake ground motion occurring from a single energy release; however, procedures to model accelerograms with several periods of strong shaking and to relate the modelling parameters to physical variables have not been developed.In this research, a database of strong motion accelerograms from multiple event earthquakes (including the 1978 Miyagiken-Oki earthquake) the 1968 Tokachi-Oki earthquake, the 1983 Nihonkai-Chubu earthquake, and the 1985 Michoacan earthquake) was modelled by an ARMA process, after first processing the records with multivariate variance and frequency stabilizing transformations. The modelling parameters were related to the time, magnitude and location of each subevent and to the site conditions using a regression analysis.