Stress pattern at Campi Flegrei from focal mechanisms of the 1982–1984 earthquakes (southern Italy)

Campi Flegrei is a Holocene volcanic area in the Campanian Plain (Southern Italy) within the Apennine Chain, a neogenic thrust belt built up since the Middle Miocene. The volcanic complex consists of a c. 12-km-diameter caldera containing several monogenetic volcanoes, the youngest of which (Monte Nuovo) erupted in 1538. Since at least Roman times, the area has also been affected by slow vertical movements (bradiseismic activity). Between 1982 and 1985, this slow motion was interrupted by a period of more rapid displacement which caused a maximum uplift of 180 cm in the town of Pozzuoli. To model the local stress field associated with the uplift, the Angelier inversion technique has been applied using the focal mechanisms of forty-nine earthquakes which occurred between April 1982 and December 1984. The results show that doming coupled with a regional extensional strain can account for the seismic phenomena that affected the area.     

BET_VH: exploring the influence of natural uncertainties on long-term hazard from tephra fallout at Campi Flegrei (Italy)

In this paper, we explore the effects of the intrinsic uncertainties upon long-term volcanic hazard by analyzing tephra fall hazard at Campi Flegrei, Italy, using the BET_VH model described in Marzocchi et al. (Bull Volcanol, 2010). The results obtained show that volcanic hazard based on the weighted average of all possible eruptive settings (i.e. size classes and vent locations) is significantly different from an analysis based on a single reference setting, as commonly used in volcanic hazard practice. The long-term hazard map for tephra fall at Campi Flegrei obtained here accounts for a wide spectrum of uncertainties which are usually neglected, largely reducing the bias intrinsically introduced by the choice of a specific reference setting. We formally develop and apply a general method to recursively integrate simulations from different models which have different characteristics in terms of spatial coverage, resolution and physical details. This outcome of simulations will be eventually merged with field data through the use of the BET_VH model.     

Assessment of <Emphasis Type="Italic">pre-crisis</Emphasis> and <Emphasis Type="Italic">syn-crisis</Emphasis> seismic hazard at Campi Flegrei and Mt. Vesuvius volcanoes,Campania, southern Italy

In this study, we address the issue of short-term to medium-term probabilistic seismic hazard analysis for two volcanic areas, Campi Flegrei caldera and Mt. Vesuvius in the Campania region of southern Italy. Two different phases of the volcanic activity are considered. The first, which we term the pre-crisis phase, concerns the present quiescent state of the volcanoes that is characterized by low-to-moderate seismicity. The second phase, syn-crisis, concerns the unrest phase that can potentially lead to eruption. For the Campi Flegrei case study, we analyzed the pattern of seismicity during the 1982–1984 ground uplift episode (bradyseism). For Mt. Vesuvius, two different time-evolutionary models for seismicity were adopted, corresponding to different ways in which the volcano might erupt. We performed a site-specific analysis, linked with the hazard map, to investigate the effects of input parameters, in terms of source geometry, mean activity rate, periods of data collection, and return periods, for the syn-crisis phase. The analysis in the present study of the pre-crisis phase allowed a comparison of the results of probabilistic seismic hazard analysis for the two study areas with those provided in the Italian national hazard map. For the Mt. Vesuvius area in particular, the results show that the hazard can be greater than that reported in the national hazard map when information at a local scale is used. For the syn-crisis phase, the main result is that the data recorded during the early months of the unrest phase are substantially representative of the seismic hazard during the whole duration of the crisis.     

Q c of three component seismograms of volcanic microearthquakes at Campi Flegrei volcanic area — Southern Italy

Digital recordings of three component microearthquake codas from shallow seismic events in the volcanic region of Campi Flegrei — Southern Italy — were used with an automatic technique to calculate the attenuation factorQ _c (codaQ) in the hypothesis of singleS toS backscattering.Results show the same value ofQ for each of the three components. This result is interpreted as due to isotropicS wave radiation pattern.A check of the coda method was performed using a single station method based on simple assumptions on the direct SH wave spectrum. Single stationQ was averaged over the stations and over the earthquakes. Results show that the two methods lead to comparable results.A frequency dependence quite different from that evaluated in active tectonic regions was found for coda attenuation, comparable to other volcanic areas throughout the world. This is interpreted as due to the presence of magma that affects anelasticity and scattering.     

Structure and evolution of the Bay of Pozzuoli (Italy) using marine seismic reflection data: implications for collapse of the Campi Flegrei caldera

Digital marine seismic reflection data acquired in 1973 in the Bay of Pozzuoli, and recently reprocessed, were used to study the volcanological evolution of the marine sector of Campi Flegrei Caldera during the last 37 ka. In order to gain more information, interpretation also involved estimation of the "pseudo-velocity" and the "pseudo-density" from the resistivity logs of two onshore deep exploration wells. The main results are: (1) discovery of ancient pre-18 ka and post-37 ka submarine and mainly effusive volcanic activity, along coeval emission centers located at the edges of Campi Flegrei Caldera; (2) confirmation that the caldera collapse in the marine sector of Campi Flegrei seems strongly controlled by regional NE–SW and NW–SE structural discontinuities; (3) the finding of at least two episodes of collapse in the bay; and (4) identification of a post-18 ka volcanic deflation phase that has caused about 150–200 m of subsidence in the central sector of the Bay of Pozzuoli in the last 18 ka.Editorial responsibilty: T. Druitt     

Understanding the Seismic Velocity Structure of Campi Flegrei Caldera (Italy): From the Laboratory to the Field Scale

We report laboratory measurements of P- and S-wave velocities on samples of tuff from Campi Flegrei (Italy), and a new tomographic velocity map of the Campi Flegrei caldera. Laboratory measurements were made in a hydrostatic pressure vessel during both increasing and decreasing effective pressure cycles. Selected samples were also thermally stressed at temperatures up to 600°C to induce thermal crack damage. Acoustic emission output was recorded throughout each thermal stressing experiment, and velocities were measured after thermal stressing. Laboratory P- and S-wave velocities are initially low for the tuff, which has an initial porosity of ~45%, but both increase by between 25 and 50% over the effective pressure range of 5 to 80 MPa, corresponding to a decrease of porosity of ~70%. Marked velocity hysteresis, due to inelastic damage processes, is also observed in samples subjected to a pressurization-depressurization cycle. Tomographic seismic velocity distributions obtained from field recordings are in general agreement with the laboratory measurements. Integration of the laboratory ultrasonic and seismic tomography data indicates that the tuffs of the Campi Flegrei caldera can be water or gas saturated, and shows that inelastic pore collapse and cracking produced by mechanical and thermal stress can significantly change the velocity properties of Campi Flegrei tuffs at depth. These changes need to be taken into account in accurately interpreting the crustal structure from tomographic data.     

Vertical ground movements in the Campi Flegrei caldera as a chaotic dynamic phenomenon

The ground level in the Campi Flegrei caldera has never been stationary in the last 2,000 years. Historical data, and a nearly continuous tide-gauge record 20 years long, show that uplift and sinking have taken place on a variety of different time scales. In addition, the Campi Flegrei volcanic system appears to be sensitive to weak external forces such as tidal forces. We infer from these elements that the Campi Flegrei system is far from thermodynamic equilibrium, and suggest that its dynamics may be chaotic. We analyze the short-term variations of the ground level, and find that they can be described in a low-dimensional phase space. The dynamics of the Campi Flegrei system seems to have been phase-locked with tidal forces in the period following the 1970–1972 climax, and to have undergone a transition to chaos in some moment that preceded the presently continuing sinking phase.     

Probability hazard map for future vent opening at the Campi Flegrei caldera,Italy

The Campi Flegrei caldera is a restless structure affected by general subsidence and ongoing resurgence of its central part. The persistent activity of the system and the explosive character of the volcanism lead to a very high volcanic hazard that, combined with intense urbanization, corresponds to a very high volcanic risk. One of the largest sources of uncertainty in volcanic hazard/risk assessment for Campi Flegrei is the spatial location of the future volcanic activity. This paper presents and discusses a long-term probability hazard map for vent opening in case of renewal of volcanism at the Campi Flegrei caldera, which shows the spatial conditional probability for the next vent opening, given that an eruption occurs. The map has been constructed by building a Bayesian inference scheme merging prior information and past data. The method allows both aleatory and epistemic uncertainties to be evaluated. The probability map of vent opening shows that two areas of relatively high probability are present within the active portion of the caldera, with a probability approximately doubled with respect to the rest of the caldera. The map has an immediate use in evaluating the areas of the caldera prone to the highest volcanic hazard. Furthermore, it represents an important ingredient in addressing the more general problem of quantitative volcanic hazards assessment at the Campi Flegrei caldera.     

History of earthquakes and vertical ground movement in Campi Flegrei caldera, Southern Italy: comparison of precursory events to the A.D. 1538 eruption of Monte Nuovo and of activity since 1968

The record of felt earthquakes around Naples Bay in southern Italy is probably complete since the mid-15th century. According to this record, intense earthquake swarms originating beneath Campi Flegrei, an explosive caldera located along the north coast of Naples Bay, have occurred only twice: (1) before the only historical eruption in Campi Flegrei in 1538; and (2) from mid-1983 to December 1984. Earthquake activity during the earlier period, which began at least a few years, and possibly as many as 30 years, before the 1538 eruption, damaged many buildings in the city of Pozzuoli, located near the center of Campi Flegrei. Minor seismic activity, which consisted of only a few felt earthquakes, occurred from 1970 to 1971. The second period of intense earthquake swarms lasted from mid-1983 to 1984, again damaging many buildings in Pozzuoli. Two periods of uplift along the shoreline within Campi Flegrei have also been noted since the mid-15th century: (1) during the few decades before the 1538 eruption; and (2) as two distinct episodes since 1968. Uplift of a few meters probably occurred a few decades before the 1538 eruption; uplift of as much as 3.0 m has occurred in Pozzuoli since 1968.These similarities strongly suggest that, for the first time in 440 years, the same process that caused intense local earthquake swarms and uplift in the early 1500's and led to an eruption in 1538, has again occurred beneath Campi Flegrei. Though no major seismicity or uplift has occurred since December 1984, because of the large amount of extensional strain accumulated during the past two decades, if a third episode of seismicity and rapid uplift occurs, it may lead to an eruption within several months after the resumption of activity.     

Hazard and risk assessment in a complex multi-source volcanic area: the example of the Campania Region, Italy

In order to zone the territory of Campania Region (southern Italy) with regard to the hazard related to future explosive activity of Somma-Vesuvio, Campi Flegrei, and Ischia Island, we drew a multi-source hazard map for tephra and pyroclastic flows. This map, which merges the areas possibly endangered by the three volcanic sources, takes into account a large set of tephra fall and pyroclastic flow events that have occurred in the last 10 ka. In detail, for fall products at Campi Flegrei and Somma-Vesuvio we used the dispersal of past eruption products as deduced by field surveys and their recurrence over the whole area. For pyroclastic flows, the field data were integrated with VEI = 4 simulated events; about 100 simulations sourcing from different points of the area were performed, considering the different probability of vent opening. The spatial recurrence of products of both past eruptions and simulated events was used to assign a weight to the area endangered by the single volcanic sources. The sum of these weights in the areas exposed to the activity of two sources and/or to different kinds of products was used to draw a hazard map, which highlights the spatial trend and the extent of the single equivalent classes at a regional scale. A multi-source risk map was developed for the same areas as the graphic result of the product of volcanic hazard and exposure, assessed in detail from a dasymetric map. The resulting multi-source hazard and risk maps are essential tools for communication among scientists, local authorities, and the public, and may prove highly practical for long-term regional-scale mitigation planning.     

Evaluating fracture patterns within a resurgent caldera: Campi Flegrei, Italy

Understanding deformation of active calderas allows their dynamics to be defined and their hazard mitigated. The Campi Flegrei resurgent caldera (Italy) is one of the most active and hazardous volcanoes in the world, characterized by post-collapse resurgence, eruptions, ground deformation, and seismicity. An original structural analysis provides an overview of the main fracture zones. NW-SE and NE-SW fractures (normal or transtensive faults and extensional fractures) predominate along the rim and within the caldera, suggesting a regional control, both during and after the collapses. While the NE-SW fractures are ubiquitous in the deposits of the last ∼37 ka, NW-SE fractures predominate in the last 4.5 ka, during resurgence. The most recently (<4.5 ka) strained area lies in the caldera center (Solfatara area), where the faults, with an overall ∼ENE-WSW extension direction, appear to be associated with the bending due to resurgence. Solfatara lies immediately to the east of the most uplifted part of the caldera (Pozzuoli area), where domes form and culminate both on the long-term (resurgence, accompanied by volcanic activity) and short-term deformation (1982–1984 bradyseism, accompanied by seismic and hydrothermal activity). Similar volcano-tectonic behavior characterizes the short- and long-term uplifts, and only the intensity of the tectonic and volcanic activity varies, being related to varying amounts of uplift. Seismicity and hydrothermal manifestations occur during the bradyseisms, with moderate uplift, while surface faulting and eruptions occur during resurgence, with higher uplift. The features observed at Campi Flegrei are found at other major calderas, suggesting consistent behavior of large magmatic systems.     

Inferences on the source of long-period seismicity at Campi Flegrei from polarization analysis and reconstruction of the asymptotic dynamics

In the present paper, we analyse long-period (LP) events and seismic noise recorded at Campi Flegrei during the uplift episode of 2004–2006. The results of a detailed polarization analysis indicate that the large number of LPs detected during the seismic crisis were accompanied by a sustained activity consisting of very low-energy volcanic signals. These weak volcanic signals, which are usually absent in ambient noise recorded in the studied area, and LP events have similar properties, namely they are radially polarized towards the same LP source. The large dataset analysed allows us to study the statistics of the polarization, leading to the extraction of the average properties of the volcanic signals. An estimate of the complexity of the system can be provided by the degrees of freedom necessary to describe the asymptotic dynamics in a reconstructed phase space. This analysis shows that both LPs and low-energy signals can be described by a low-dimensional dynamical system, while ambient noise unrelated to volcanic activity is higher dimensional. Based on these observations, we interpret the phenomena observed during the seismic crisis in the framework of the theory of self-oscillating systems, in which LPs and low-energy signals represent self-oscillations generated by a persistent hydrothermal source.     

Scaling of peak ground motions from digital recordings of small earthquakes at Campi Flegrei,southern Italy

The dependence of peak ground acceleration and velocity on seismic moment is studied for a set of small earthquakes (0.7<M _L<3.2) recorded digitally at distances of a few km in the Campi Flegrei volcanic area near Naples, Italy, during the ground uplift episode of 1982–1984. Numerical simulations, using the -square spectral model with constant stress drop and ane ^–kf high frequency decay, fit well both the velocity and acceleration data for an averagek=0.015. The observed ground motions in the 1–24 Hz frequency band appear to consist of radiation from simple sources modified only slightly by attenuation effects. Moreover, the scaling of peak values agrees closely with those determined in nonvolcanic areas, once the difference in stress drop is taken into account.     

<Superscript>40</Superscript>Ar/<Superscript>39</Superscript>Ar dating of tuff vents in the Campi Flegrei caldera (southern Italy): toward a new chronostratigraphic reconstruction of the Holocene volcanic activity

The Campi Flegrei hosts numerous monogenetic vents inferred to be younger than the 15 ka Neapolitan Yellow Tuff. Sanidine crystals from the three young Campi Flegrei vents of Fondi di Baia, Bacoli and Nisida were dated using ⁴⁰Ar/³⁹Ar geochronology. These vents, together with several other young edifices, occur roughly along the inner border of the Campi Flegrei caldera, suggesting that the volcanic conduits are controlled by caldera-bounding faults. Plateau ages of ∼9.6 ka (Fondi di Baia), ∼8.6 ka (Bacoli) and ∼3.9 ka (Nisida) indicate eruptive activity during intervals previously interpreted as quiescent. A critical revision, involving calendar age correction of literature ¹⁴C data and available ⁴⁰Ar/³⁹Ar age data, is presented. A new reference chronostratigraphic framework for Holocene Phlegrean activity, which significantly differs from the previously adopted ones, is proposed. This has important implications for understanding the Campi Flegrei eruptive history and, ultimately, for the evaluation of related volcanic risk and hazard, for which the inferred history of its recent activity is generally taken into account.     

Ground motion observations and simulation for local earthquakes in the Campi Flegrei volcanic area

Ground motion produced by low magnitude earthquakes can be used to predict peak values in high seismic risk areas where large earthquakes data are not available. In the present work 20 local earthquakes (M_D∈[?0.3, 2.2]) occurred in the Campi Flegrei caldera during the last decade were analyzed. We followed this strategy: empirical relations were used to calibrate synthetic modeling, accounting for the source features and wave propagation effects. Once the source and path parameters of ground motion simulation were obtained from the reference data set, we extrapolated scenarios for stronger earthquakes for which real data are not available. The procedure is structured in two steps: (1) evaluation of ground motion prediction equation for Campi Flegrei area and assessment of input parameters for the source, path and site effects in order to use the finite fault stochastic approach (EXSIM code); (2) simulation of two moderate-to-large earthquake scenarios for which only historical data or partial information are available (M_w4.2 and M_w5.4). The results show that the investigated area is characterized by high attenuation of peak amplitude and not negligible site effects. The stochastic approach has revealed a good tool to calibrate source, path and site parameters on small earthquakes and to generate large earthquake scenario. The investigated magnitude range represents a lower limit to apply the stochastic method as a calibration tool, due to the small size of involved faults (fault length around 200/300 m).     

The structure of the Campanian Plain and the activity of the Neapolitan volcanoes (Italy)

The central Campanian Plain is dominated by the structural depression of Acerra whose origin is tectonic, but may have been enlarged and further depressed after the eruption of the Campanian Ignimbrite (42-25 ka). The deposits of the Campanian Ignimbrite are possibly the results of multiple eruptions with huge pyroclastic deposits that covered all the Campanian Plain.The more recent activity of Vesuvius, Campi Flegrei and Procida occurred on the borders of Acerra depression and resulted from a reactivation of regional faults after the Campanian Ignimbrite cycle. The activity of Vesuvius produced the building of a stratovolcano mostly by effusive and plinian explosive eruptions. The Campi Flegrei area, on the contrary, was dominated by the eruption of the Neapolitan Yellow Tuff at 12 ka that produced a caldera collapse of the Gulf of Pozzuoli. The caldera formation controlled the emplacement of the recent activity of Campi Flegrei and the new volcanoes were formed only within the caldera or along its rim.     

Volcanic CO2 flux measurement at Campi Flegrei by tunable diode laser absorption spectroscopy

Near-infrared room temperature tunable diode lasers (TDL) have recently found increased usage in atmospheric chemistry and air monitoring research, but applications in volcanology are still limited to a few examples. Here, we explored the potential of a commercial infrared laser unit (GasFinder 2.0 from Boreal Laser Ltd) for measurement of volcanic CO₂ mixing ratios, and ultimately for estimating the volcanic CO₂ flux. Our field tests were conducted at Campi Flegrei near Pozzuoli, Southern Italy, where the GasFinder was used during three campaigns in October 2012, January 2013 and May 2013 to repeatedly measure the path-integrated mixing ratios of CO₂ along cross sections of the atmospheric plumes of two major fumarolic fields (Solfatara and Pisciarelli). By using a tomographic post-processing routine, we resolved, for each of the two fields, the contour maps of CO₂ mixing ratios in the atmosphere, from the integration of which (and after multiplication by the plumes’ transport speeds) the CO₂ fluxes were finally obtained. We evaluate a total CO₂ output from the Campi Flegrei fumaroles of ～490 Mg/day, in line with independent estimates based on in situ (Multi-GAS) observations. We conclude that TDL technique may enable CO₂ flux quantification at other volcanoes worldwide.     

3-D Modelling of Campi Flegrei Ground Deformations: Role of Caldera Boundary Discontinuities

Campi Flegrei is a caldera complex located west of Naples, Italy. The last eruption occurred in 1538, although the volcano has produced unrest episodes since then, involving rapid and large ground movements (up to 2 m vertical in two years), accompanied by intense seismic activity. Surface ground displacements detected by various techniques (mainly InSAR and levelling) for the 1970 to 1996 period can be modelled by a shallow point source in an elastic half-space, however the source depth is not compatible with seismic and drill hole observations, which suggest a magma chamber just below 4 km depth. This apparent paradox has been explained by the presence of boundary fractures marking the caldera collapse. We present here the first full 3-D modelling for the unrest of 1982–1985 including the effect of caldera bordering fractures and the topography. To model the presence of topography and of the complex caldera rim discontinuities, we used a mixed boundary elements method. The a priori caldera geometry is determined initially from gravimetric modelling results and refined by inversion. The presence of the caldera discontinuities allows a fit to the 1982–1985 levelling data as good as, or better than, in the continuous half-space case, with quite a different source depth which fits the actual magma chamber position as seen from seismic waves. These results show the importance of volcanic structures, and mainly of caldera collapses, in ground deformation episodes.     

Geochemical and biochemical evidence of lake overturn and fish kill at Lake Averno,Italy

Lake Averno is situated in the homonymous crater in the northwestern sector of the Campi Flegrei active volcanic system in Campania region, Italy. In February 2005 a fish kill event was observed in the lake, prompting a geochemical survey to ascertain the possible cause. In February 2005 a geochemical survey revealed that the lake water was unstratified chemically and isotopically, presumably, as a result of lake overturn. This fish kill phenomenon was recorded at least two other times in the past. In contrast to the February 2005 results, data collected in October 2005, shows the Lake Averno to be stratified, with an oxic epilimnion (surface to 6 m) and an anoxic hypolimnion (6 m to lake bottom at about 33 m).