Geomagnetically Induced Currents and Space Weather: Pi3 Pulsations and Extreme Values of Time Derivatives of the Geomagnetic Field’s Horizontal Components

The problem of estimating the time derivatives of the horizontal components of the geomagnetic field and forecasting the probability of the occurrence of perturbations that exceed a given threshold level (the over-threshold perturbations) arises in the applications concerned with the geomagnetically induced currents (GICs). In this work, we consider the temporal and spatial structure of the Pi3 pulsations with quasi-periods of 10² to 10³ s during which the auroral and subauroral stations of the IMAGE network record over-threshold values in the derivatives of the meridional (along the longitudinal circle) B_X component and latitudinal (along the latitudinal circle) B_Y component. The extreme |dB_X/dt| values mainly develop against the background of the Pi3 pulsations with a complex frequency content, whereas the extreme |dB_Y/dt| values appear when the buildup (decay) phases of the bay-like disturbance associated with the evolution of a substorm coincide with the respective phases of the field of pulsations. The conditions under which the derivatives |dB_X/dt| and |dB_Y/dt| reach their over-threshold values are studied for subauroral latitudes by the technique of superposed epoch analysis. The extreme values of the derivatives most frequently occur during the main phase of moderate magnetic storms or beyond the storm—during high substorm activity under the conditions of a negative vertical component of the interplanetary magnetic field. The probability of the occurrence of over-threshold values increases at high amplitudes of the Pi3 pulsations and depends on their spectral content. The problem of analyzing and forecasting the over-threshold |dB_Y/dt| perturbations is complicated by the fact that the scale of the perturbations is small along the lines of latitude and large along the meridians. This can result in GIC excitation in the North–South oriented electric power lines by the geomagnetic perturbations localized within a narrow band in longitude which can be missed during the measurements.     

Effect of zonal E × B plasma drift on electron density in the low-latitude ionospheric <Emphasis Type="Italic">F</Emphasis> region at a solar activity maximum near vernal equinox

The variations in the density of the ionospheric F2 layer maximum (NmF2) under the action of the zonal plasma drift perpendicularly to the magnetic (B) and electric (E) fields in the direction geomagnetic west-geomagnetic east have been studied using the three-dimensional nonstationary theoretical model of electron and ion densities (N _e and N _i ) and temperatures (T _e and T _i ) in the low-latitude and midlatitude ionospheric F region and plasmasphere. The method of numerical calculations of N _e , N _i , T _e , and T _i , including the advantages of the Lagrangian and Eulerian methods, is used in the model. A dipole approximation of the geomagnetic field (B), taking into account the non-coincidence of the geographic and geomagnetic poles and differences between the positions of the Earth’s and geomagnetic dipole centers, is accepted in the calculations. The calculated NmF2 and altitudes of the F2 layer maximum (hmF2) have been compared with these quantities measured at 16 low-latitude ionospheric sounding stations during the geomagnetically quiet period October 11–12, 1958. This comparison made it possible to correct the input model parameters: the NRLMSISE-00 model [O], the meridional component of the neutral wind velocity according to the HWW90 model, and the meridional component of the equatorial plasma drift due to the electric field specified by the empirical model. It has been indicated that the effect of the zonal E × B plasma drift on NmF2 can be neglected under daytime conditions and changes in NmF2 and hmF2 under the action of this drift are insignificant under nighttime conditions north of 25° and south of ?26° geomagnetic latitude. The effect of the zonal E × B plasma drift on NmF2 and hmF2 is most substantial in the nightside ionosphere approximately from ?20° to 20° geomagnetic latitude, and the neglect of this drift results in an up to 2.4-fold underestimation of NmF2. The found dependence of the effect of the zonal E × B plasma drift on NmF2 and hmF2 on geomagnetic latitude is related to the longitudinal asymmetry of B, asymmetry of the neutral wind about the geomagnetic equator, and changes in the meridional E × B plasma drift at a change in geomagnetic longitude.     

Daytime quasiperiodic geomagnetic pulsations during the recovery phase of the strong magnetic storm of May 15, 2005

Intense quasimonchromatic geomagnetic pulsations with a period of ～15 min, observed on the Earth’s surface in the near-noon sector at the beginning of the recovery phase of a very strong (Dst _min = ?260 nT) magnetic storm of May 15, 2005, are analyzed. The variations were registered at auroral latitudes only in the X field component, and wave activity shifted into the postnoon sector of the polar cap an hour later; in this case pulsations were observed in the X and Y field components. Within the magnetosphere the source of magnetic pulsations could be the surface waves on the magnetopause caused by the pulse of the solar wind magnetic pressure. Geomagnetic pulsations in the polar cap, observed in phase at different latitudes, could apparently reflect quasiperiodic variations in the NBZ system of field-aligned currents. Such variations can originate due to the series of pulsed reconnections in the postnoon outer cusp at large (～20 nT) positive B _z values and large (about ?40 nT) negative values of IMF B _x .     

Global empirical model of critical frequency of the ionospheric <Emphasis Type="Italic">F</Emphasis>2-layer for quiet geomagnetic conditions

Using the foF2 database obtained from satellites and ground-based ionospheric stations, we have constructed a global empirical model of the critical frequency of the ionospheric F2-layer (SDMF2—Satellite and Digisonde Data Model of the F2 layer) for quiet geomagnetic conditions (Kp < 3). The input parameters of this model are the geographical coordinates, UT, day, month, year, and the integral index F10.7 (day, τ = 0.96) of solar activity for a given day. The SDMF2 model was based on the Legendre method for the spatial expansion of foF2 monthly medians to 12 in latitude and 8 in longitude of spherical harmonics. The resulting spatial coefficients have been expanded by the Fourier method in three spherical harmonics with respect to UT. The effect of the saturation of critical frequency of the ionospheric F2-layer at high solar activity was described in the SDMF2 model by foF2 as a logarithmic function of F10.7 (day, τ = 0.96). The difference between the SDMF2 and IRI models is a maximum at low solar activity as well as in the Southern Hemisphere and in the oceans. The testing on the basis of ground-based and satellite data has indicated that the SDMF2 model is more accurate than the IRI model.     

The geomagnetic field at the Proterozoic-Paleozoic boundary and lower-mantle plumes

Data on the amplitude of variations in the direction of the geomagnetic field and the frequency of reversals in the Vendian-Cambrian are presented. It has been established from these data that (a) distributions of variations in the direction of the geomagnetic field S _p are bimodal (modes 9° and 11°); (b) the maximum of the average amplitude S _p takes place by 5–10 Myr later than the Vendian-Cambrian boundary; (c) S _p tends to increase as plume epicenters are approached; and (d) the plume formation is more often confined to intervals with different frequencies of geomagnetic reversals than to the interval of a stable state of the geomagnetic field without reversals (Vendian hyperchron). The listed features of the geomagnetic field behavior are repeated near all boundaries of geological eras of the Phanerozoic.     

Behavior of Parameters of Enhancements in the Nighttime Electron Concentration in the Ionospheric <Emphasis Type="Italic">F</Emphasis>2 Layer

We have analyzed the behavior of the F2 layer parameters during nighttime periods of enhanced electron concentration by the results of vertical sounding of the ionosphere carried out with five-minute periodicity in Almaty (76°55′ E, 43°15′ N) in 2001–2012. The results are obtained within the frameworks of the unified concept of different types of ionospheric plasma disturbances manifested as variations in the height and half-thickness of the layer accompanied by an increase and decrease of N _m F2 at the moments of maximum compression and expansion of the layer. A good correlation is found between height h _Am , which corresponds to the maximum increase, and layer peak height h _m F, while h _Am is always less than h _m F. The difference between h _Am and h _m F linearly increases with increasing h _m F. Whereas the difference is ~38 km for h _m F = 280 km, it is ~54 km for h _m F = 380 km. Additionally, the correlation is good between the increase in the electron concentration in the layer maximum ΔN _m and the maximum enhancement at the fixed height ΔN; the electron concentration enhancement in the layer maximum is about two to three times lower than its maximum enhancement at the fixed height.     

A study of Guptkashi,Uttarakhand earthquake of 6 February 2017 (<Emphasis Type="Italic">M</Emphasis><Subscript><Emphasis Type="Italic">w</Emphasis></Subscript>5.3) in the Himalayan arc and implications for ground motion estimation

The 2017 Guptkashi earthquake occurred in a segment of the Himalayan arc with high potential for a strong earthquake in the near future. In this context, a careful analysis of the earthquake is important as it may shed light on source and ground motion characteristics during future earthquakes. Using the earthquake recording on a single broadband strong-motion seismograph installed at the epicenter, we estimate the earthquake’s location (30.546° N, 79.063° E), depth (H?=?19 km), the seismic moment (M₀?=?1.12×10¹⁷ Nm, M _w 5.3), the focal mechanism (φ?=?280°, δ?=?14°, λ?=?84°), the source radius (a?=?1.3 km), and the static stress drop (Δσ _s ~22 MPa). The event occurred just above the Main Himalayan Thrust. S-wave spectra of the earthquake at hard sites in the arc are well approximated (assuming ω^?2 source model) by attenuation parameters Q(f)?=?500f^0.9, κ?=?0.04 s, and f_max?=?infinite, and a stress drop of Δσ?=?70 MPa. Observed and computed peak ground motions, using stochastic method along with parameters inferred from spectral analysis, agree well with each other. These attenuation parameters are also reasonable for the observed spectra and/or peak ground motion parameters in the arc at distances ≤?200 km during five other earthquakes in the region (4.6?≤?M _w ?≤?6.9). The estimated stress drop of the six events ranges from 20 to 120 MPa. Our analysis suggests that attenuation parameters given above may be used for ground motion estimation at hard sites in the Himalayan arc via the stochastic method.     

Geomagnetic Storm Effects at <Emphasis Type="Italic">F</Emphasis>1 Layer Altitudes in Various Periods of Solar Activity (Irkutsk Station)

The influence of geomagnetic disturbances on electron density Ne at F1 layer altitudes in different conditions of solar activity during the autumnal and vernal seasons of 2003–2015, according to the data from the Irkutsk digital ionospheric station (52° N, 104° Е) is examined. Variations of Ne at heights of 150–190 km during the periods of twenty medium-scale and strong geomagnetic storms have been analyzed. At these specified heights, a vernal–autumn asymmetry of geomagnetic storm effects is discovered in all periods of solar activity of 2003–2015: a considerable Ne decrease at a height of 190 km and a weaker effect at lower levels during the autumnal storms. During vernal storms, no significant Ne decrease as compared with quiet conditions was registered over the entire analyzed interval of 150?190 km.     

Features of <Emphasis Type="Italic">Pc</Emphasis>5 pulsations in the geomagnetic field,auroral luminosity,and Riometer absorption

Simultaneous morning Pc5 pulsations (f ~ 3–5 mHz) in the geomagnetic field, aurora intensities (in the 557.7 and 630.0 nm oxygen emissions and the 471.0 nm nitrogen emission), and riometer absorption, were studied based on the CARISMA, CANMOS, and NORSTAR network data for the event of January 1, 2000. According to the GOES-8 satellite observations, these Pc5 geomagnetic pulsations are observed as incompressible Alfvén waves with toroidal polarization in the magnetosphere. Although the Pc5 pulsation frequencies in auroras, the geomagnetic field, and riometer absorption are close to one another, stable phase relationships are not observed between them. Far from all trains of geomagnetic Pc5 pulsations are accompanied by corresponding auroral pulsations; consequently, geomagnetic pulsations are primary with respect to auroral pulsations. Both geomagnetic and auroral pulsations propagate poleward, and the frequency decreases with increasing geomagnetic latitude. When auroral Pc5 pulsations appear, the ratio of the 557.7/630.0 nm emission intensity sharply increases, which indicates that auroral pulsations result from not simply modulated particle precipitation but also an additional periodic acceleration of auroral electrons by the wave field. A high correlation is not observed between Pc5 pulsations in auroras and the riometer absorption, which indicates that these pulsations have a common source but different generation mechanisms. Auroral luminosity modulation is supposedly related to the interaction between Alfvén waves and the region with the field-aligned potential drop above the auroral ionosphere, and riometer absorption modulation is caused by the scattering of energetic electrons by VLF noise pulsations.     

Dynamics of the ionospheric electric currents and auroral luminosity boundaries during strong magnetic storms

The regularities in the southward drift of the ionospheric current centers and luminosity boundaries during strong magnetic storms of November 2003 and 2004 (with Dst ≈ ?400 and ?470 nT, respectively) are studied based on the global geomagnetic observations and TV measurements of auroras. It has been indicated that the eastward and westward electrojets in the dayside and nightside sectors simultaneously shift equatorward to minimal latitudes of Φ _min ^° ～53°–55°. It has been obtained that the Φ _min ^° latitude decreases with increasing negative values of Dst, IMF B _z component, and westward electric field strength in the solar wind. The dependence of the electrojet equatorward shift velocity (V _av) on the rate of IMF B _z variations (ΔB _z /Δt) has been determined. It is assumed that the electrojet dynamics along the meridian is caused by a change in the structure of the magnetosphere and electric fields in the solar wind and the Earth’s magnetosphere.     

Regular Variations of Intensity of the Westward Auroral Electrojet according to the Geomagnetic <Emphasis Type="Italic">AL</Emphasis> Index

Diurnal and seasonal variations of the geomagnetic AL index are studied. It is found in disturbed days that the mode of AL diurnal variation depends on the angle between the Sun–Earth line prolongation in the direction towards the magnetotail and the plane of geomagnetic equator; on quiet days, AL depends on the angle of attack between the geomagnetic axis and the Earth–Sun line. Seasonal AL variations are characterized by annual variations with summer maximum and semiannual variations with equinoctial maxima. It is shown that the semiannual AL variations can be described by a simplified model of plasma convection in the magnetotail based on a plasma electron cooling mechanism.     

Dependences of statistical characteristics of <Emphasis Type="Italic">NmE</Emphasis> on the month of the year at middle and low latitudes under daytime geomagnetically quiet conditions at low solar activity

Month-to-month changes in the statistical characteristics of the ionospheric E layer peak electron density NmE at medium and low geomagnetic latitudes under daytime geomagnetically quiet conditions are investigated. Critical frequencies of the ionospheric E layer measured by the middle latitude ionosonde Boulder and low latitude ionosondes Huancayo and Jicamarca at low solar activity from 1957 to 2015 have been used in the conducted statistical analysis. The mathematical expectation of NmE, standard deviation of NmE from the expectation of NmE, and NmE variation coefficient have been calculated for each month of the year. The months of the formation of extrema of these statistical parameters of NmE were found.     

Correlation between foam-bubble size and drag coefficient in hurricane conditions

A recently proposed model of foam impact on the air–sea drag coefficient C _d has been employed for the estimation of the effective foam-bubble radius R _b variation with wind speed U₁₀ in hurricane conditions. The model relates C _d (U₁₀) with the effective roughness length Z _eff (U₁₀) represented as a sum of aerodynamic roughness lengths of the foam-free and foam-covered sea surfaces Z _w (U₁₀) and Z _f (U₁₀) weighted with the foam coverage coefficient α _f (U₁₀). This relation is treated for known phenomenological distributions C _d (U₁₀), Z _w (U₁₀), and α _f (U₁₀) at strong wind speeds as an inverse problem for the effective roughness parameter of foam-covered sea surface Z _f (U₁₀). The present study is aimed at the estimation of the effective roughness of the sea surface assuming that the measurement data for the effective drag coefficient are known. The effective foam-bubble size is found as a function of the wind speed.     

Statistical study of anomalous nighttime maximums in the <Emphasis Type="Italic">NmF</Emphasis> 2 diurnal variations in the region of appearance of the equatorial anomaly northern crest

The occurrence probabilities of the first and second anomalous nighttime local maximums in the diurnal variations in the electron density at a maximum of the ionospheric F ₂ layer (NmF2) in the region where the crest (hump) of the equatorial anomaly originates in the northern geographic hemisphere have been studied using the data of the stations for vertical sounding of the ionosphere (Paramaribo, Dakar, Quagadougou, Ahmedabad, Delhi, Calcutta, Chongoing, Guangzhou, Taipei, Chung-Li, Okinawa, Yamagawa, Panama, and Bogota) from 1957 to 2004. It has been demonstrated that the anomalous nighttime NmF2 maximums are least frequently formed at ～53° geomagnetic longitude. The calculations have indicated that the studied probabilities are independent of solar activity. Geomagnetic activity weakly affects the rate of occurrence of the first nighttime NmF2 maximum at geomagnetic longitudes of approximately 140° to 358°. At geomagnetic longitudes of approximately 16° to 70° (i.e., in the longitudinal zone of a decreased occurrence frequency of anomalous nighttime maximums), the occurrence probability of the first anomalous nighttime NmF2 maximum under geomagnetically quiet conditions is pronouncedly lower than under geomagnetically disturbed conditions. The dependence of the occurrence probabilities of the first and second anomalous nighttime NmF2 maximums on the month number in a year has been studied.     

Long-period irregular pulsations under the conditions of a quiet magnetosphere

Simultaneous observations of high-latitude long-period irregular pulsations at frequencies of 2.0–6.0 mHz (ipcl) and magnetic field disturbances in the solar wind plasma at low geomagnetic activity (Kp ~ 0) have been studied. The 1-s data on the magnetic field registration at Godhavn (GDH) high-latitude observatory and the 1-min data on the solar wind plasma and IMF parameters for 2011–2013 were used in an analysis. Ipcl (irregular pulsations continuous, long), which were observed against a background of the IMF Bz reorientation from northward to southward, have been analyzed. In this case other solar wind plasma and IMF parameters, such as velocity V, density n, solar wind dynamic pressure P = ρV² (ρ is plasma density), and strength magnitude B, were relatively stable. The effect of the IMF Bz variation rate on the ipcl spectral composition and intensity has been studied. It was established that the ipcl spectral density reaches its maximum (~10–20 min) after IMF Bz sign reversal in a predominant number of cases. It was detected that the ipcl average frequency (f) is linearly related to the IMF Bz variation rate (ΔBz/Δt). It was shown that the dependence of f on ΔBz/Δt is controlled by the α = arctan(By/Bx) angle value responsible for the MHD discontinuity type at the front boundary of magnetosphere. The results made it possible to assume that the formation of the observed ipcl spectrum, which is related to the IMF Bz reorientation, is caused by solar wind plasma turbulence, which promotes the development of current sheet instability and surface wave amplification at the magnetopause.     

Oxygen cyclotron harmonic waves observed using Van Allen Probes

Fine structured multiple-harmonic electromagnetic emissions at frequencies around the equatorial oxygen cyclotron harmonics are observed by Van Allen Probe A outside the core plasmasphere(L~5) off the magnetic equator(MLAT~.7.5°)during a geomagnetic storm. We find that the multiple-harmonic emissions have power spectrum density(PSD) peaks during 2–8equatorial oxygen gyroharmonics( f ~ n fO+, n=2–8), while the fundamental mode(n=1) is absent, implying that the harmonic waves are generated near the equator and propagate into the observation region. Additionally, these electromagnetic emissions are linearly polarized. Different from the equatorial noise emission that propagates considerably obliquely, these emissions have moderate wave normal angles(approximately 40°–60°), which predominately increase as the harmonic number increases.Considering their frequency and wave normal angle characteristics, it is suggested that these multiple-harmonic emissions play an important role in the dynamic variation of radiation belt electrons.     

Properties of daytime long-period pulsations during magnetospheric storm commencement

Long-period geomagnetic pulsations during the SSC of July 14, 2012, are studied. The prenoon longitudinal sector (09:20–11:30) MLT, from the boundaries of which pulsations propagate azimuthally onto the dawn and dusk sides with an opposite polarization direction and increased amplitude, has been distinguished. The position of this sector relative to noon (a shift to the dawn side) depends on the front azimuthal inclination. It has been found that the polarization direction reverses in going from low (<30°) to middle/subauroral (≥50°) latitudes on the entire dayside. The geomagnetic pulsations mainly fluctuate near the f₁ = 2.9 and f₂ = 4.4 mHz frequencies. Fluctuations with frequency f₁, which coincide with the fluctuation frequency of the IMF х component, predominate at the polar cap latitudes (the open field line region) in the form of rapidly attenuating impulses and at low latitudes with a much smaller amplitude. Fluctuations with frequency f₂ are globally registered at all latitudes in the dayside sector below the magnetopause projection as a train of several fluctuations. It is assumed that fluctuations with frequency f₁ penetrate from the solar wind, and fluctuations with frequency f₂ are radial magnetopause oscillations.     

Dependence of geomagnetic disturbances on extreme values of the solar wind <Emphasis Type="Italic">E</Emphasis><Subscript><Emphasis Type="Italic">y</Emphasis></Subscript> component

The dependence of the zonal geomagnetic indices (AE, Ap, Kp, Kn, and Dst) on the solar wind parameters (the electric field E _y component, dynamic pressure P _d and IMF irregularity σB) has been studied for two types of events: magnetic clouds and high-speed streams. Based on the empirical relationships, it has been established that the AE, Ap, Kp, and Kn indices are directly proportional to the E _y value at E _y < 12 mV m^?1 and are inversely proportional to this value at E _y > 12 mV m^?1 for the first-type events. On the contrary, the dependence of Dst on E _y is monotonous nonlinear. A linear dependence of all geomagnetic indices on E _y is typical of the second-type events. It has been indicated that the specific features of geoeffectiveness of magnetic clouds and high-speed solar wind streams are caused by the dependence of the electric field potential across the polar cap on the electric field, solar wind dynamic pressure, and IMF fluctuations.     

Quasi-wave variations in <Emphasis Type="Italic">foEs</Emphasis> during stratospheric warmings of 2008–2010 according to data from Kaliningrad ionospheric station

The results of analysis of variations in the sporadic layer critical frequency (foEs) for winter periods of 2008–2010 in which sudden stratospheric warmings were observed are presented in the paper. The data were obtained at Kaliningrad ionospheric station (54.6° N, 20° E) by a Parus digital ionosonde under the usual sounding regime with an interval of 15 min. Daily mean values of foEs were used for the analysis. Solar and geomagnetic activity remained low during the periods under study, making it possible to relate the quasiwave time variations in foEs to the parameters of stratospheric warmings. The results of spectral analysis performed on the basis of continuous wavelet transform showed that, during all warmings occurring in 2008–2010, time variations in foEs show the presence of wave processes with a period of an order of 5 days and longer ones with a period of ~10—11 days. These periods coincide with characteristic periods of planetary waves observed in the atmosphere during sudden stratospheric warnings.     

A novel model and estimation method for the individual random component of earthquake ground-motion relations

In this paper, I introduce a novel approach to modelling the individual random component (also called the intra-event uncertainty) of a ground-motion relation (GMR), as well as a novel approach to estimating the corresponding parameters. In essence, I contend that the individual random component is reproduced adequately by a simple stochastic mechanism of random impulses acting in the horizontal plane, with random directions. The random number of impulses was Poisson distributed. The parameters of the model were estimated according to a proposal by Raschke J Seismol 17(4):1157–1182, (2013a), with the sample of random difference ξ?=?ln(Y ₁ )-ln(Y ₂ ), in which Y ₁ and Y ₂ are the horizontal components of local ground-motion intensity. Any GMR element was eliminated by subtraction, except the individual random components. In the estimation procedure, the distribution of difference ξ was approximated by combining a large Monte Carlo simulated sample and Kernel smoothing. The estimated model satisfactorily fitted the difference ξ of the sample of peak ground accelerations, and the variance of the individual random components was considerably smaller than that of conventional GMRs. In addition, the dependence of variance on the epicentre distance was considered; however, a dependence of variance on the magnitude was not detected. Finally, the influence of the novel model and the corresponding approximations on PSHA was researched. The applied approximations of distribution of the individual random component were satisfactory for the researched example of PSHA.