Unconditional and conditional competing risk models of activity duration and activity sequencing decisions: An empirical comparison

 This paper reports the results of an empirical comparison of various types of competing risk models in predicting the timing and duration of activities. In particular, three types of models are compared: a non-competing risk model, an unconditional competing risk model, and a conditional competing risk model. The models are applied to an activity diary, collected in the Netherlands. The results of the comparison indicate that the conditional competing risk model performs best, indicating that the choice and timing of activities depends on the nature and duration of the activity conducted previously. The specific structure of these dependent transition probabilities are discussed in detail. Several socio-demographic variables are found to be significantly related to the transition probabilities. Received: 19 July 2001 / Accepted: 25 January 2002     

Towards a conjoint-based, context-dependent model of task allocation in activity settings: Some numerical experiments

 None of the currently developed activity-based models of transport demand explicitly models task allocation among household members. To fill this gap, the present paper suggests to complement activity-based models of activity scheduling with a context-dependent model of task allocation. That is, it is assumed that the allocation of tasks within households is partly based on such contextual variables as the amount of time a member has to spend on mandatory activities and car availability. In particular, the paper advocates a conjoint-based approach, based on an assignment task as opposed to the traditional ranking, rating or choice response formats. By definition, an assignment task involves a combinatorial explosion of choice alternatives, implying that additional operational decisions to estimate the context-dependent model are required. This study presents the results of various numerical experiments, conducted to better understand the impacts of those decisions on the degree of bias in the parameter estimates of the choice model. The results of these simulations indicate that under particular assumptions, the development and estimation of a conjoint-based, context-dependent model of task allocation within households is feasible. Received: March 1999 / Accepted: June 2001     

Testing spatial patterns and growth spillover effects in clusters of cities

 This paper analyzes the spatial patterns of households' distribution in clusters of cities and the effects on regional growth using spatial exploratory techniques and a model of growth that incorporates spatial location. Our empirical analysis shows that, over the 1980–1990 period, in Southern New England, patterns of spatial clustering of households did create heterogeneous growth rates in the region. Also, there is evidence that clusters of cities and isolated cities created spillover growth effects in bordering towns. Received: 5 September 2001 / Accepted: 2 August 2002     

Area-based tests for association between spatial patterns

 Edge effects pervade natural systems, and the processes that determine spatial heterogeneity (e.g. physical, geochemical, biological, ecological factors) occur on diverse spatial scales. Hence, tests for association between spatial patterns should be unbiased by edge effects and be based on null spatial models that incorporate the spatial heterogeneity characteristic of real-world systems. This paper develops probabilistic pattern association tests that are appropriate when edge effects are present, polygon size is heterogeneous, and the number of polygons varies from one classification to another. The tests are based on the amount of overlap between polygons in each of two partitions. Unweighted and area-weighted versions of the statistics are developed and verified using scenarios representing both polygon overlap and avoidance at different spatial scales and for different distributions of polygon sizes. These statistics were applied to Soda Butte Creek, Wyoming, to determine whether stream microhabitats, such as riffles, pools and glides, can be identified remotely using high spatial resolution hyperspectral imagery. These new “spatially explicit” techniques provide information and insights that cannot be obtained from the spectral information alone. Received 1 June 2001 / Accepted 25 October 2001     

Deriving rules from activity diary data: A learning algorithm and results of computer experiments

 Activity-based models consider travel as a derived demand from the activities households need to conduct in space and time. Over the last 15 years, computational or rule-based models of activity scheduling have gained increasing interest in time-geography and transportation research. This paper argues that a lack of techniques for deriving rules from empirical data hinders the further development of rule-based systems in this area. To overcome this problem, this paper develops and tests an algorithm for inductively deriving rules from activity-diary data. The decision table formalism is used to exhaustively represent the theoretically possible decision rules that individuals may use in sequencing a given set of activities. Actual activity patterns of individuals are supplied to the system as examples. In an incremental learning process, the system progressively improves on the selection of rules used for reproducing the examples. Computer experiments based on simulated data are performed to fine-tune rule selection and rule value update functions. The results suggest that the system is effective and fairly robust for parameter settings. It is concluded, therefore, that the proposed approach opens up possibilities to derive empirically tested rule-based models of activity scheduling. Follow-up research will be concerned with testing the system on empirical data. Received: 31 January 2001 / Accepted: 13 September 2001     

Analytical solar radiation pressure modelling for GLONASS using a pixel array

 A new method for calculating analytical solar radiation pressure models for GNSS spacecraft has been developed. The method simulates the flux of light from the Sun using a pixel array. The method can cope with a high level of complexity in the spacecraft structure and models effects due to reflected light. Models have been calculated and tested for the Russhar global navigation satellite system GLONASS IIv spacecraft. Results are presented using numerical integration of the force model and long-arc satellite laser ranging (SLR) analysis. The integrated trajectory differs from a precise orbit calculated using a network of global tracking stations by circa 2 m root mean square over a 160 000-km arc. The observed − computed residuals for the 400-day SLR arc are circa 28 mm. Received: 23 December 1999 / Accepted: 28 August 2000     

Recent advances in accessibility research: Representation,methodology and applications

 In this article we examine recent advances in accessibility research and their implications for future studies. We base our discussion on three intersecting dimensions that are useful for evaluating the contribution of recent studies: representation, methodology and applications. Various examples are selected to show that research concerned with representation and methodological problem solving is often applied to issues of broad concern in policy and planning. It is, however, not clear that the simultaneous treatment of representation, methodological and application issues has ever been fully worked out. The questions raised in this article may serve as a foundation for addressing issues pertinent to accurate representation, improved model building, and more rigorous applications in accessibility research. Received: 9 December 2002 / Accepted: 10 February 2003     

Assessing representation error in point-based coverage modeling

 Accurately representing geographic space in a digital environment continues to confound and challenge researchers. Carrying out spatial analysis in a setting where geographic representation is subject to change poses problems to be addressed. In this paper we examine spatial representation in the context of coverage-based location modeling. A geographic region can be represented in a variety of ways. We present an evaluation of spatial representation in the location of facilities that provide coverage oriented services. The analysis shows that the modeling results are sensitive to how spatial demand for service is represented in a digital environment. We develop an approach for evaluating representational appropriateness. This research contributes to spatial analysis integrated in geographic information system environment. Received: 10 January 2001 / Accepted: 8 April 2002     

An integrated representation of spatial and temporal relationships between evolving regions

 The study of relationships between evolving regions within GIS still needs the development of operators that integrate the spatial and temporal dimensions. This paper introduces a new approach that combines topological relationships between regions in 2-dimensional space with temporal relationships between convex intervals in time. Resulting relationships are defined and visually presented within a 3-dimensional space that integrates the geographical space as a 2-dimensional space and the time line as the third dimension. Conceptual neighbourhoods are identified and extended by the concept of semi-transitions and transitions. Such a flexible framework presents the advantage of being derived from accepted relationships in both space and time. Its computational implementation is therefore compatible with current spatial and temporal GIS models. Received: May 2000 / Accepted: June 2001     

Solution and econometric estimation of spatial dynamic models in continuous space and continuous time

 This paper presents and demonstrates a general approach to solving spatial dynamic models in continuous space and continuous time that characterize the behaviour of intertemporally and interspatially optimizing agents and estimating from discrete data the parameters of such models. The approach involves the use of a projection method to solve the models and a quasi-Newton algorithm to update quasi-FIML parameter estimates. Received: 26 July 2000 / Accepted: 31 January 2001     

Estimated population mixing by country and risk cohort for the HIV/AIDS epidemic in Western Europe

 This paper applies a compartmental epidemic model to estimating the mixing relations that support the transfer of HIV infection between risk populations within the countries of Western Europe. To this end, a space-time epidemic model with compartments representing countries with populations specified to be at high (gay men and intravenous drug injectors ever with AIDS) and low (the remainder who are sexually active) risk is described. This model also allows for contacts between susceptible and infectious individuals by both local and international travel. This system is calibrated to recorded AIDS incidence and the best-fit solution provides estimates of variations in the rates of mixing between the compartments together with a reconstruction of the transmission pathway. This solution indicates that, for all the countries, AIDS incidence among those at low risk is expected to remain extremely small relative to their total number. A sensitivity analysis of the low risk partner acquisition rate, however, suggests this endemic state might be fragile within Europe during this century. The discussion examines the relevance of these mixing relationships for the maintenance of disease control. Received: 4 May 2000 / Accepted: 9 July 2000     

Space-time accessibility measures: A geocomputational algorithm with a focus on the feasible opportunity set and possible activity duration

 Space-time accessibility measures have received much attention in recent years due to their sensitivity to differences in individual ability to participate in activities in space and time. Despite the conceptual attractiveness and robustness of space-time measures, only few attempts have been made to operationalize them to date. Research that seeks to improve space-time accessibility measures is still sorely needed. This study seeks to enhance space-time accessibility measures through developing a new operational method and GIS-based algorithm that better represents the space-time characteristics of urban opportunities (e.g. their geographical distribution and opening hours) and human activity-travel behavior (e.g. delay times, minimum activity participation time, and maximum travel time threshold). The proposed method not only takes into account the number and size of opportunities, but also the possible activity duration at each activity location given its opening hours and the effect of transport network topology (e.g. one-way streets, turn restrictions and over-pass). Incorporating these elements into space-time measures helps overcome several shortcomings of previous approaches to evaluating space-time accessibility. Received: 15 September 2002 / Accepted: 10 February 2003 A version of this paper was presented at the 98th Annual Meeting of the Association of American Geographers, Los Angeles, March 19-23, 2002. We thank Joe Weber for providing the digital transport network with travel speeds and a version of the geocomputational algorithm he used in his study (Weber 2001), upon which our developmental effort has been based. We are also grateful to the helpful comments and suggestions of the reviewers.     

The ERS-2 altimetric bias and gravity field enhancement using dual crossovers between ERS and TOPEX/Poseidon

 Dual satellite crossovers (DXO) between the two European Remote Sensing satellites ERS-1 and ERS-2 and TOPEX/Poseidon are used to (1) refine the Earth's gravity field and (2) extend the study of the ERS-2 altimetric range stability to cover the first four years of its operation. The enhanced gravity field model, AGM-98, is validated by several methodologies and will be shown to provide, in particular, low geographically correlated orbital error for ERS-2. For the ERS-2 altimetric range study, TOPEX/Poseidon is first calibrated through comparison against in situ tide gauge data. A time series of the ERS-2 altimeter bias has been recovered along with other geophysical correction terms using tables for bias jumps in the range measurements at the single point target response (SPTR) events. On utilising the original version of the SPTR tables the overall bias drift is seen to be 2.6±1.0 mm/yr with an RMS of fit of 12.2 mm but with discontinuities at the centimetre level at the SPTR events. On utilising the recently released revised tables, SPTR2000, the drift is better defined at 2.4±0.6 mm/yr with the RMS of fit reduced to 3.7 mm. Investigations identify the sea-state bias as a source of error with corrections affecting the overall drift by close to 1.2 mm/yr. Received: 25 May 2000 / Accepted: 24 January 2001     

Spatial econometrics functions in R: Classes and methods

 Placing spatial econometrics and more generally spatial statistics in the context of an extensible data analysis environment such as R exposes similarities and differences between traditions of analysis. This can be fruitful, and is explored here in relation to prediction and other methods usually applied to fitted models in R. Objects in R may be assigned a class attribute, including fitted model objects. Such fitted model objects may be provided with methods allowing them to be displayed, compared, and used for prediction, and it is of interest to see whether fitted spatial models can be treated in the same way. Received: 26 August 2002 / Revised version: 15 January 2003     

Gravity/magnetic potential of uneven shell topography

 A fast spherical harmonic approach enables the computation of gravitational or magnetic potential created by a non-uniform shell of material bounded by uneven topographies. The resulting field can be evaluated outside or inside the sphere, assuming that density of the shell varies with latitude, longitude, and radial distance. To simplify, the density (or magnetization) source inside the sphere is assumed to be the product of a surface function and a power series expansion of the radial distance. This formalism is applied to compute the gravity signal of a steady, dry atmosphere. It provides geoid/gravity maps at sea level as well as satellite altitude. Results of this application agree closely with those of earlier studies, where the atmosphere contribution to the Earth's gravity field was determined using more time-consuming methods. Received: 14 August 2000 / Accepted: 19 March 2001     

Geostatistical incorporation of spatial coordinates into supervised classification of hyperspectral data

 This paper presents a methodology to incorporate both hyperspectral properties and spatial coordinates of pixels in maximum likelihood classification. Indicator kriging of ground data is used to estimate, for each pixel, the prior probabilities of occurrence of classes which are then combined with spectral-based probabilities within a Bayesian framework. In the case study (mapping of in-stream habitats), accounting for spatial coordinates increases the overall producer's accuracy from 85.8% to 93.8%, while the Kappa statistic rises from 0.74 to 0.88. Best results are obtained using only indicator kriging-based probabilities, with a stunning overall accuracy of 97.2%. Significant improvements are observed for environmentally important units, such as pools (Kappa: 0.17 to 0.74) and eddy drop zones (Kappa: 0.65 to 0.87). The lack of benefit of using hyperspectral information in the present study can be explained by the dense network of ground observations and the high spatial continuity of field classification which might be spurious. Received: 12 April 2001 / Accepted: 7 September 2001     

Determining the size of spatial clusters in focused tests: Comparing two methods by means of simulation in a GIS

 Based on a four-point evaluation system consisting of accuracy, consistency, power, and chance to commit type I errors, this study compares Tango's minimum p (MinP) and Stone's maximum relative risk (MaxRR) methods for detecting focused cluster size through simulations in GIS. It reveals that the MinP method is more effective than the MaxRR method. The MinP method exhibits higher levels of accuracy and consistency; and its power and chance to commit type I errors are similar to the MinP method. The MaxRR method has a tendency to underestimate the cluster size, while the MinP method tends to overestimate the cluster size, particularly when the clusters are relatively big and have high relative risk levels. In addition, the MinP method seems to be most effective in revealing the size of clusters when clusters are neither too strong nor too weak. The lowest detection rates for clustering occur when the clustering signal is relatively weak, which is easily understandable. In practice, it might be useful to use both the methods to estimate a range of possible cluster sizes, where the MaxRR method indicates the lower estimate, while the MinP method gives the higher estimate of the cluster size. Received: 24 August 2002 / Accepted: 20 December 2002     

A computational approach for the analysis of changes in polygon distributions

 This paper develops a computational method for analyzing changes in polygon distributions. Unmovable polygons that change discontinuously without explicit functional linkage information are discussed. Six types of primitive events are used to describe the change: 1) generation, 2) disappearance, 3) expansion, 4) shrinkage, 5) union, and 6) division. The change of polygon distributions is decomposed into a combination of these events. A computational procedure for deducing a set of events from polygon distributions of two times is proposed. The method is applied to the analysis of the spatial competition between the major and small chains of convenience stores in Tokyo, Japan. Some empirical findings are shown. Received: 3 August 2000 / Accepted: 6 February 2001