Impact of horizontal resolution on prediction of tropical cyclones over Bay of Bengal using a regional weather prediction model

The present study is carried out to examine the performance of a regional atmospheric model in forecasting tropical cyclones over the Bay of Bengal and its sensitivity to horizontal resolution. Two cyclones, which formed over the Bay of Bengal during the years 1995 and 1997, are simulated using a regional weather prediction model with two horizontal resolutions of 165 km and 55 km. The model is found to perform reasonably well towards simulation of the storms. The structure, intensity and track of the cyclones are found to be better simulated by finer resolution of the model as compared to the coarse resolution. Rainfall amount and its distribution are also found to be sensitive to the model horizontal resolution. Other important fields, viz., vertical velocity, horizontal divergence and horizontal moisture flux are also found to be sensitive to model horizontal resolution and are better simulated by the model with finer horizontal grids.     

Voyage of the Indian subcontinent since Pangea breakup and driving force of supercontinent cycles: Insights on dynamics from numerical modeling

Recent advances in three-dimensional numerical simulations of mantle convection have aided in approximately reproducing continental movement since the Pangea breakup at 200 Ma. These have also led to a better understanding of the thermal and mechanical coupling between mantle convection and surface plate motion and predictions of the configuration of the next supercontinent. The simulations of mantle convection from 200 Ma to the present reveals that the development of large-scale cold mantle downwellings in the North Tethys Ocean at the earlier stage of the Pangea breakup triggered the northward movement of the Indian subcontinent. The model of high temperature anomaly region beneath Pangea resulting from the thermal insulation effect support the breakup of Pangea in the real Earth time scale, as also suggested in previous geological and geodynamic models. However, considering the low radioactive heat generation rate of the depleted upper mantle, the high temperature anomaly region might have been generated by upwelling plumes with contribution of deep subducted TTG(tonalite-trondhjemite-granite) materials enriched in radiogenic elements. Integrating the numerical results of mantle convection from 200 Ma to the present, and from the present to the future, it is considered that the mantle drag force acting on the base of continents may be comparable to the slab pull force, which implies that convection in the shallower part of the mantle is strongly coupled with surface plate motion.     

High Resolution Element Records in the Late Pleistocene Xifeng Loess Profile

Eighty-one samples were selected from the Late Pleistocene Xifeng loess profile and analyzed for their element abundances using instrumental neutron activation analysis,and for ^10Be using the AMS method.The results show that the variations of element abundance and ^10Be with dept are similar to those of δ^18O in DSDP ,and may be considered as an indicator of climatic and environmental changes.     

地下水多元示踪试验在岩溶隧道水害预测中的应用——以张吉怀高铁兰花隧道为例

以张家界—吉首—怀化高速铁路兰花隧道为例,在岩溶水文地质调查基础上结合地下水多元示踪技术,查明了兰花隧道隧址区各岩溶地下水系统以及地下暗河管道的空间展布。结果表明:（1）兰花隧道及其附近区域全部为寒武系碳酸盐岩裸露区,以峰丛洼地为主,地表和地下岩溶极为发育;（2）兰花隧道隧址及其附近区域共发育有呆业洞和兰花洞两个独立的地下暗河系统,其中Ⅰ号、Ⅱ号、Ⅲ号三个岩溶水系统属于兰花洞地下暗河系统的子系统;Ⅳ号岩溶水系统属于呆业洞地下暗河系统;（3）Ⅳ号岩溶地下水系统在平面和剖面上都没有与兰花隧道相交,不会对隧道突涌水构成威胁;（4）兰花洞地下暗河系统以中部兰花洞暗河天窗为界分为上游和下游两段,上游段Ⅰ号和Ⅱ号岩溶水系统在平面和剖面上都没有与兰花隧道相交,不会对兰花隧道突涌水构成威胁;下游段Ⅲ号岩溶水系统在平面上与兰花隧道相交（交点里程为DK60+100）,可能存在隧道突涌水风险;（5）依据高分辨率降雨-水文动态监测数据,采用降雨入渗系数法预测在极端暴雨情况下兰花隧道揭露Ⅲ号岩溶管道的最大涌水量为7.08×104 m3?d-1。