Scales of recruitment variability in warming waters: Comparing native and introduced oysters in Hood Canal,Washington, USA

The effect of climate change on natural oyster recruitment has the potential to disrupt many of the ecosystem services oysters provide. Due to the temperature‐sensitivity of reproduction, oyster recruitment may shift as water temperatures rise. A biological imprint of climate change was revealed in a multi‐decadal time series of recruitment of non‐native Pacific oysters (Crassostrea gigas) in the main stem of Hood Canal, Washington, USA, extracted from historic fishery documents. Water in July and August warmed significantly from 1945 to 1995 (0.028 ± 0.004°C per year [±SE]) and accounted for an increase in Pacific oyster recruitment (7% per year, 0.028 ± 0.006 spat per year on log scale [±SE]); recruitment also strongly tracked inter‐annual variability in summer water temperature. Methods used to collect historical data were repeated in 2013–2015 when recruitment of both Pacific oysters and native Olympia oysters (Ostrea lurida) were recorded in main stem and lower Hood Canal. Both historic and modern data show large variation within and between years for temperature as well as recruitment. The modern data add information regarding spatial variation, in that recruitment patterns in the two regions of Hood Canal were decoupled. As temperatures continue to increase, non‐native Pacific oysters are likely to be favored over Olympia oysters, which recruit earlier at lower temperatures and presently contribute less than half of total oyster recruits. Future recruitment, however, may be limited by environmental factors other than temperature, a point indicated particularly in Hood Canal where many subtidal species already respond strongly to gradients in dissolved oxygen.     

Long-term changes in the production by estuarine macrobenthos affected by multiple stressors

The macrobenthic production of an estuarine system was evaluated over a 14-year study period in a seagrass bed and in a sandflat. Over this period, the estuary suffered severe eutrophication and extreme weather events with important impacts on the community, impairing system functioning and ultimately the goods and services provided by the estuary (decline in the seagrass bed, decreased community production and/or a boost in the production by opportunist species, such as Hydrobia ulvae). Following the anthropogenic impacts, management measures were introduced which allowed a gradual recovery of the seagrass bed and a new macrobenthic community structure manifested by production increases of slow-growing species, such as Scrobicularia plana and Hediste diversicolor. There was a gradual re-orientation of energy into population biomass instead of population density but this was not translated into higher community production, mainly due to the decreased production of opportunist species (H. ulvae and several polychaetes). Several weather extreme events occurred during this post-mitigation phase - floods, heatwaves and droughts, all of which had negative impacts on macrobenthic dynamics and production. The heatwaves led to the greatest decreases in macrobenthic production, mainly due to S. plana perhaps associated with its physiological intolerance of higher temperatures. The prolonged drought that followed the heatwaves maintained low levels of production by S. plana and H. ulvae. With climate change, the frequency and intensity of extreme weather events are likely to increase worldwide so that the recovery of impacted/disturbed systems from impacts such as eutrophication may be seriously affected by these additional stressors, compromising attempts to improve the ecological quality of estuarine ecosystems.     

南海热带气旋的气候变化及强度预测方法研究

建立南海海域1949～2007年6～10月份热带气旋（以下简称TC）年、月频数和TC中心强度的历史资料统计文件,分析TC的年月变化。结果表明：近50年,TC具有10a左右的周期变化,1964～1974年和1985～1995年为南海两个强台风以上级别频发期,1997～2006年为TC频数少且强度弱的时期。同时TC强度的空间分布分析结果表明,中沙北部海域和东沙西部海域为强台风多发生区,各月TC强度分布特征明显不同,且其加强通道具有南-北-南阶段性变化。另外,通过分别对1949～2007年北半球500hPa高度场及海温场的格点资料和TC强度历史资料的相关计算,选取高相关格点,根据相关权重组成组合因子,构建二次型预测方程,做年月TC强度预测。预测检验结果显示,冬季的高度场和海温场对次年的TC强度预测效果良好。     

1988年以来气候控制的南流江河口红树林扩张

基于卫星图像重建了近30年来广西南流江河口区一片红树林的扩张过程,结果表明：自1988年至2013年,该红树林向海显著扩张,面积由60公顷增加为134公顷。红树林的自然扩张并非渐进式,而是集中发生于某些特定时期。为了研究控制红树林扩张的动力机制,本文研究了近几十年来红树林潮坪高程演变和区域气候变化过程,同时也分析了水动力状况和营养盐供应的变化情况。研究表明：在滩面高程达到红树林幼苗存活最低高程的前提下,台风强度、频率和冬季低温是控制该红树林扩张的关键因素。红树林湿地的显著扩张只发生在台风强度和频率较低、冬季较为温暖的时期。而在台风频率和强度较高、冬季较为寒冷的时期,由于红树林幼苗难以存活,红树林则难以扩张。在过去几十年间,由于该区域适宜红树林扩张的时期较为罕见,从而导致了红树林扩张过程的不连续性。与气候因素相比,营养供应和水动力状况并不是控制该红树林扩张的关键因素。