A Study on the Spatial Distribution of China’s Potential Foreign Cooperation on Grain from Geographical View

Further utilization of global agricultural resources and the expansion of potential international cooperation space are necessary measures to promote a new level of China’s national food security and optimize the structure of domestic food consumption. This study measured the global potential cultivated land area and national grain self-sufficiency. Based on the two-above measures, the authors made a classification of China’s foreign agricultural cooperation countries and depicted the spatial pattern of cooperation based on the grain trades of those countries with China. The grain exporters include Australia, North America, South America, Eastern Europe and Central Asia; and the target countries for “going abroad” of Chinese grain enterprises are mainly located in Sub-Saharan Africa and northern Latin America. This study proposes that China’s policy of cooperation on grain should be shifted to non-traditional partners alongside the “Belt and Road Initiative” region. Specifically, China could expand grain imports from Russia, Kazakhstan, Ukraine and other East European and Central Asian countries, and the direction for China’s agricultural enterprises “going abroad” should shift to Sub-Sahara Africa.     

“一带一路”视域下中国与中亚国家地缘经济合作比较研究

中亚五国是我国西出的首站,是参与丝绸之路经济带建设的重要国家,中国与中亚的贸易投资合作直接关系到我国地缘经济空间的拓展,对“一带一路”建设意义重大。本文从地缘经济和区域经济合作的角度,运用统计分析和比较分析的方法,研究比较了中亚五国经济总量的发展变化,中亚五国的贸易环境及其与中国贸易的成效,以及中亚五国的营商环境和中国对中亚各国投资的成效。主要结论如下：中亚国家的贸易投资环境总体处于较低水平,仍需得到进一步改善;中国对中亚不同国家的贸易和投资呈同向发展的趋势;中国与中亚国家正在形成能源资源进口与民用品出口的格局;中国对中亚国家的贸易投资不平衡,呈现出国别差异较大、个别行业分布过于集中的特点,可能会加大中国对中亚国家贸易投资的风险。为进一步提升双方合作,提出以下建议：提高区域贸易投资便利化水平;因国施策,进一步发挥各方潜力,扩大贸易投资规模;促进区域经济的均衡可持续发展;鼓励双向投资,提高贸易投资的广度和深度,与中亚共同构建更加合理的区域贸易投资体系。     

建设经济带是经济发展布局的最佳选择——长江经济带经济发展的巨大潜力

自1984年, “点-轴开发”理论和中国国土开发、经济布局的“T”字型宏观战略提出以来,“T”字型空间结构战略在20世纪80~90年代得到大规模实施。海岸经济带和长江经济带2个一级重点经济带构成“T”字型,长江经济带将内地2个最发达的核心地区（成渝地区和武汉地区）与海岸经济带联系起来,其腹地几乎包括半个中国,其范围内资源丰富,农业、经济和技术基础雄厚,已经形成世界上最大的以水运为主的、包括铁路、高速公路、管道以及超高压输电等组成的具有超大能力的综合运输通道,其巨大的发展潜力是除海岸经济带以外的其他经济带所不能比拟的。“点-轴开发”理论和中国国土开发、经济布局的“T”字型宏观战略（海岸带和长江沿线作为全国的一级发展轴线）已经得到国内诸多知名学者和有关部门领导的认同,符合中国国土开发和经济布局合理化的要求,以海岸地带和长江沿岸作为今后几十年中国国土开发和经济布局的一级轴线的战略将是长期的。     

生态文明理念下的国土空间均衡：基于两种财富的分析框架

国土空间均衡是生态文明建设与国土空间治理的重要目标。本文首先在“两山”理论与强弱可持续理论的指导下,基于生态财富与物质财富的二分法,探究国土空间均衡的内涵要义及状态评估模型;其次,通过生态财富与物质财富的特性差异及互动机制分析来探讨国土空间均衡的实现机制;最后,基于具体国土空间单元均衡状态的演进分析,研究整体国土空间均衡实现的可行路径。结果显示：① 基于两种财富的国土空间均衡的内涵即人均物质财富以及人均生态财富在空间上的双收敛,且各空间均收敛于较理想的水平值。② 整体性的国土空间均衡状态将会出现“一均衡、三失衡”四种情形。促进两种财富的良性互动,增强协同效应,减少权衡关系,是实现国土空间均衡的关键。③ 国土空间单元的均衡状态可划分为低等均衡或全面失衡、发展失衡、生态失衡、协调均衡四种,促进各具体国土空间单元向高阶均衡状态演进是实现整体国土空间均衡的可行路径。依循两种财富的互动机制与国土空间单元均衡状态的演进规律来指导具体国土空间单元的开发与保护,有利于实现整体的国土空间均衡。     

黄河流域兰州段生态环境与高质量发展耦合协调关系研究

环境保护作为新常态时代下我国推进生态流域文明体系建设的关键环节,推进黄河流域地区生态环境治理已成为生态文明建设的重要内容。通过选取我国黄河流域唯一被干流贯通的省会城市兰州市为研究对象,根据2010—2019年黄河流域兰州段统计资料,构建了黄河流域兰州段生态环境及高质量发展水平评价指标体系,并利用熵权法构建耦合度模型,全面解析和综合评估了生态环境与高质量发展的耦合水平特征。结果表明：黄河流域兰州段生态环境水平并不高,呈“恶化-好转-恶化-好转”的态势,而高质量发展水平呈“降-升-降-升-降-升”的波动态势。总体来看,兰州市生态环境与高质量发展协调性有待加强,应充分考虑黄河流域整体性特征,坚持生态保护优先原则,同步推进产业的专业化整合与转型升级,提升城市综合治理能力,在城乡融合发展基础上优化城市功能结构布局,最终实现人居生态环境可持续发展。     

Characteristics of Agricultural and Livestock Products Trade Flows between China and the “Belt and Road” Initiative Region: From the Perspective of Biocapacity

In the context of global ecological overload, international trade has become one of the most important ways to make up for the ecological deficit. This study takes the “Belt and Road” Initiative as the study area to analyze the biocapacity and ecological footprint characteristics between China and other countries along the “Belt and Road” Initiative. Trade flow characteristics were explored from the perspective of biocapacity. The import and export of virtual land was used to assess the effect of trade on compensating for the resource gaps in crop and grazing land. The main results show that: 1) In 2005-2014, the majority of “Belt and Road” countries were experiencing increasing degrees of overload. In China, cropland takes up the largest proportion of biocapacity, while the ecological footprint is dominated by the carbon footprint. 2) The trade flow of agricultural and livestock products in the mainland of China shows a trend of increasing imports and decreasing exports, which increases dependence on specific regions. 3) In 2005-2014, China’s trade in cereals and oil crops along the “Belt and Road” Initiative were generally net imports, and the share of cereals traded along the “Belt and Road” Initiative is increasing gradually, but that of oil crops decreased rapidly. 4) The import trade has alleviated ecological deficit, as the selected products compensated for 1.03 times of the cropland deficit and 0.65 times of the grazing land deficit in China. This study is helpful to understand the relationship between the land use and trade deeply, and provide decision-making references for reducing ecological deficits, optimizing land resource allocation, and promoting win-win cooperation among China and other countries in the “Belt and Road” Initiative.     

基于多时相Landsat影像的中亚地区植被覆盖遥感监测

针对中亚地区的强生态脆弱性、高敏感性特征,有必要开展广域、长期的植被覆盖监测以匹配“绿色丝绸之路”的可持续发展目标。鉴于此,联合Landsat 5和Landsat 8卫星数据集,利用Google Earth Engine（GEE）地理空间数据云计算平台,估算了中亚地区1993—2018年间共12期的植被覆盖度。结果表明：（1）中亚地区植被覆盖总体水平较低,但也具有较为显著的空间异质性。（2）中亚地区1993—2018年间多数区域植被覆盖趋势较为稳定,哈萨克斯坦丘陵、费尔干纳盆地等区域植被覆盖度呈增加趋势,乌拉尔河流域和锡尔河流域等区域植被覆盖趋势为负。（3）植被覆盖度时序特征上,中亚地区1993—2018年间总体植被覆盖度累积增加3%,其中吉尔吉斯斯坦和塔吉克斯坦植被覆盖分别增加3.96%和5.86%。（4）裸土区呈退缩趋势,面积总计减少25.9×10⁴ km²,低植被覆盖区、中植被覆盖区和高植被覆盖区范围在呈现出的振荡式增加。研究结合遥感大数据和地理云计算对中亚地区进行区域尺度的植被覆盖动态监测,能对中亚地区生态评估和演替分析提供技术支持和定量数据。     

Assessing the Ecological Carrying Capacity of Countries along the Belt and Road

The Belt and Road Initiative (B&R Initiative) is a crucial strategy to promote regional sustainable development in the new era. However, the realization of the B&R Initiative faces huge challenges because of the dual characteristics of a fragile eco-environment and strong dependence on ecological resources for economic development in the Belt and Road (B&R) countries. The ecological carrying capacity (ECC) is a crucial indicator for evaluating regional sustainable development. From the perspective of the relationship between the supply and consumption of ecological resources, this study uses net primary productivity data to measure the supply capacity of ecological resources, and it uses the agricultural production and trade data provided by the United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization to measure the level of ecological resource consumption. These supply and consumption data are then used to assess the ECC and ecological carrying status (ECS) of the B&R countries in 2017. The results show that: (1) The ECC of the B&R is 11.097 billion people; the ecosystem can also support 6.433 billion people, and the ECC is in a state of rich and surplus. (2) The ECS is polarized among the regions and countries along the B&R. Of the 65 countries, the ECC of 40 countries is in a rich and surplus state, mainly in Mid-East Europe and Southeast Asia, while the ECC of 19 countries is in severe overload, mainly in West Asia/Middle East. (3) Although the ecosystems still have ample carrying space in countries along the B&R, ecological protection is still facing enormous challenges during the implementation of the B&R Initiative combined with the internationally recognized ecological protection standards as well as the forecasts of the population and economic development. As the core content of building a new international trade network, the B&R Initiative will help to solve the spatial mismatch between the supply and consumption of ecological resources, which provides a new opportunity to coordinate the contradiction between the ecological protection and social demands of the B&R countries.     

Practical Exploration of Ecological Restoration and Management of the Mountains-Rivers-Forests-Farmlands-Lakes-Grasslands System in the Irtysh River Basin in Altay,Xinjiang

The Irtysh River Basin refers to a water conservation area and a vital ecological barrier in Xinjiang and also partially in Central Asia. Here, the technical solution for the ecological protection and the restoration of the Mountains-Rivers-Forests-Farmlands-Lakes-Grasslands system (MRFFLGs) pilot project in the Irtysh River Basin is refined, by complying with the core concept, i.e., “mountains, rivers, forests, farmlands, lakes and grasslands are a community of life”. The solution stresses the specific characteristics of ecologically protecting and restoring MRFFLGs in the Irtysh River Basin, which aim to reduce ecological water use, soil erosion, forest and grassland degradation, the ecological destruction of mines, water environment pollution and other issues. With overall protection, system restoration, district policy, and problem orientation as the overarching ideas, 162 sub-items of 44 major items with seven categories have been designed and implemented in the project. In addition, some highlights of the management experience that are worth promoting when the pilot project is being implemented are also summarized (e.g., the use of laws to solve historical problems, scientific argumentation and third-party evaluation, proactive guidance for the engagement of people, modern information technology support, and integration with local sustainable development). Lastly, four policy suggestions are proposed: (1) Building a model of systematic protection and restoration by using basins as the basic geographic unit; (2) Establishing and optimizing key weak links of systems and mechanisms; (3) Focusing on remedying the shortcomings of regional talents, technology and capital; and (4) Promoting the MRFFLGs project to integrate “industry, city, people, and tourism” for carrying out a large-scale system project.     

Research on Ecological Protection and Restoration Measures in Altay Region based on the Coupling Perspective of the Mountains-Rivers-Forests-Farmlands-Lakes-Grasslands System

The adoption of both Nature-based Solutions (NbS) and a system perspective is a hot issue and an area in which there is much room for improvement in ecological protection and restoration. The study takes Altay region as an example, an area located in Xinjiang, China, which is an important ecological corridor of the national key functional area and the core area of the Belt and Road but has a fragile ecological environment and needs much enhancement in ecological protection and restoration. Guided by the concept of “mountains-rivers-forests- farmlands-lakes-grasslands (MRFFLG) system is a life community”, the coupling relationship of the various MRFFLG elements, the main ecological environmental problems and the integrated countermeasures for protection and restoration in Altay region have been analyzed in this study. The study shows that Altay region has a typical meta-ecosystem of mountain, oasis, and desert, and the connections by rivers and lakes make the ecosystem links within the region much closer. The interweaving of resource-environmental-ecological issues of the aquatic ecosystem, degradation of the quality of terrestrial ecosystems such as forests, grasslands and farmlands, the increased ecosystem fragmentation and ecological risks are the major ecological environmental issues in this region. This study takes the improvement of the ecosystem health and function in Altay region as the core goal of regional ecological protection and restoration. First, we establish a zoning governance pattern from the perspective of ecosystem integrity; second, we design governance strategies for different zones with the goal of synergistic improvements in the ecosystem functions; and finally, we clarify the key engineering tasks in different zones from the perspective of ecosystem services. Ecological conservation and restoration of the MRFFLG system is a prime example of the application and development of NbS in China. This paper constructs an analytical framework for identifying regional life communities, diagnosing ecological protection and restoration of zoning problems, and proposing classified solutions for ecological protection tasks for the protection of the MRFFLG system. This research will enrich the theory and technology for the protection and restoration of MRFFLG systems, and provide guidance for the practice of ecological protection and restoration in Altay region.     

尺度理论视角下的“一带一路”战略解读

目前,“一带一路”已成为中国的核心发展战略之一。借鉴尺度重构和尺度政治理论,分析“一带一路”战略的内涵、影响和风险。研究发现“一带一路”战略重构了现有的国家角色和地域形式,催生了以跨国基础设施为基础、以资本和经贸合作为支撑的新尺度。该尺度一方面被国际和国内的资本和权力关系不断重构,另一方面也在重构着现有的权力关系和资本积累过程。还从尺度政治视角出发探讨了“一带一路”战略中的风险因素。在国际层面,中国既面临着基于多边国际关系和地方抵抗的尺度上推力量,也面临着基于旧有边界和尺度化表达的尺度下推因素。在国内,“一带一路”战略既面临着地方政府基于政策争夺和地方保护主义产生的重复建设问题,也存在疆独势力等通过国际联系复杂化地方趋势的风险。为了更好地推行“一带一路”战略,中国必须积极应对这些尺度政治的挑战,深入研究尺度政治的机制和破解之道,努力化解海外投资、国际合作和地方治理中的风险。     

文化邻近对“一带一路”沿线国家间科研合作强度的影响

跨国科研合作是“一带一路”倡议的重要内容,而相互信任则是科研合作的重要基础。由于“一带一路”沿线各国的经济规模和社会文化环境差异都较大,文化邻近对于增进国家间相互信任,进而推动跨国科研合作就具有重要价值。考虑到以往研究主要以合著科研论文数量来测度国家间的科研合作水平,可能放大了经济规模、人口规模、发文总量等的影响,本研究基于2007—2020年间“一带一路”沿线66国间的合著科研论文数量,以改进的Salton指数表征的科研论文合作强度测度国家间科研合作水平,采用社会网络分析、回归分析和GIS空间分析等方法,探究沿线各国在2007—2013年和2014—2020年两个时间段内科研合作强度的演变过程,并以此为基础,着重考察文化邻近的可能影响。研究表明：① 综合分析论文合作规模和合作强度,能够识别出建立在语言、宗教等文化要素邻近之上的两国间真正的强合作关系,宗教邻近有助于增进互信,语言邻近有助于增进相互理解,方便了科研合作过程中的交流和沟通。② 2007年以来,“一带一路”沿线国家间的科研合作空间格局已由“两核九中心”转变为“一核八中心”,中国成为网络中唯一的核心,与其他国家的加权度中心性差距不断扩大。③ 国家发文量、国家间经济发展差距、政治关系、地理距离、语言邻近和宗教邻近等均对科研合作强度有显著影响,其中文化（语言和宗教）邻近的影响最为显著,但也趋于减弱,语言邻近的影响要强于宗教邻近,并且只有语言相同或属于同一语支能够显著促进国家间的科研合作。中国作为“一带一路”倡议的发起国,与沿线大多数国家并不具有天然的文化邻近,在一定程度上阻碍了科研合作网络的建设。未来,有必要更加重视跨文化交流和沟通,以增进科研合作领域的信任关系,推动科研合作取得实效。     

“一带一路”沿线贸易便利化发展格局研究

贸易便利化是“一带一路”贸易合作的关键环节,提高贸易便利化水平有利于促进区域内经济要素有序自由流动。论文从贸易便利化入手,基于已有文献回顾,构建包含29个指标的贸易便利化评价体系,分析2013—2017年“一带一路”沿线国家的贸易便利化发展态势和空间格局,并提出相关政策建议。研究结果显示：① 2013—2017年,沿线国家贸易便利化水平呈缓慢上升态势,蒙俄、中亚、中东欧、西亚增长较明显;② 沿线国家贸易便利化水平呈“东西高、中间低,北高南低”的空间格局,空间差异呈缩小态势;③ 二级指标与贸易便利化总指标的发展态势相对一致,电子商务、市场准入、海关环境、口岸设施等增长态势较明显;④ 综合发展高水平型、综合发展低水平型是沿线国家主要模式,通关成本与国际合作滞后型、内部贸易环境领先型、基础设施建设领先型分别成为东南亚、中东欧和中亚部分国家的重要发展模式。     

Governance Logic and Basic Systems of the New “Food Safety Law of the People’s Republic of China”: a Focus on Social Co-Governance

To modernize food safety governance, we must carry out basic restructuring of its internal logic at the national level to reflect the features of contemporary Chinese society that shape food safety. This will entail establishing an overarching, macro-level conception of food safety that integrates “baseline safety”, “hub safety”, “co-constructed safety” and “endogenous safety”. These four dimensions of safety represent four fundamental requirements of food safety governance in modern Chinese society, which is a “risk society” (Beck 1992) and one that is also complex, open and pluralist. These requirements are: maximum legal liability, a unified, authoritative and efficient supervision system, a concept of social co-governance, and enterprises being the primary entities accountable for food safety. This article uses this analytical framework to interpret the basic contents of the newly revised Food Safety Law of the People’s Republic of China, and uses a focus on social co-governance to present the institutional highlights of this law and the transformation of the internal logic of food safety governance.     

昆仑山北麓两次极端暴雨水汽特征对比分析

使用高空、地面观测资料、地面自动站雨量资料和美国国家环境预报中心（NCEP）再分析资料,通过水汽通量诊断分析、后向轨迹模型等方法,分析了昆仑山北麓和田地区2020年5月5-7日（简称“05·06”过程）和2021年6月14-17日（简称“06·15”过程）两次极端暴雨过程的环流形势、中尺度系统、水汽输送和收支特征。结果表明：（1） 两次暴雨过程有共同的特点：影响系统都为中亚低涡,均有来自里海、咸海一带的水汽输送;对流层低层偏东急流作用显著,最强水汽辐合集中在700~850 hPa。（2） 两次暴雨过程也有明显差异：“05·06”过程的南亚高压为带状分布,水汽输送路径为西方和偏东路径,其中西方路径水汽输送最明显,西边界水汽输入贡献占88%;“06·15”过程的南亚高压为双体型,水汽输送路径为北方和偏南路径,水汽来自阿拉伯海和孟加拉湾的偏南气流向北输送,南方路径输送量远远大于其他路径,南边界水汽输入贡献占78%。（3） 和田大气可降水量（PW）增大尤其是超过平均状态时,对强降水出现有指示意义,当PW≥20 mm以上时,可能会出现暴雨或极端暴雨天气。     

边疆生态旅游地游客空间感知与地方想象研究——以内蒙古额济纳绿洲为例

旅游地感知是旅游地理学重要的研究领域之一,“一带一路”倡议背景下,游客空间感知与地方想象研究对推动边疆生态旅游地品牌化建设,促进边疆“去边缘化”和旅游发展具有重要的理论和现实意义。以额济纳绿洲为例,综合集成内容分析法、社会网络分析法、文本分析法与社会访谈法,探讨了边疆生态旅游地游客空间感知意象特征与地方想象建构过程。结果表明：（1） 绿洲景观生态与自然风貌是生态旅游地空间感知中最主要的部分,其中,胡杨林在游客空间感知意象网络中居于核心位置,胡杨符号成为游客审美和消费偏好。（2） K-核分析发现,胡杨要素贯穿所有凝聚子群层次变化过程,胡杨景观及其延伸的社会文化意义是游客重点关注的内容。随着K-核级数增加,游客由着重关注绿洲胡杨森林景观向绿洲森林、地貌、水体等综合自然景观过渡,绿洲人文景观除黑城遗址和策克口岸外,其他较少受到游客青睐。（3） 基于边疆独特的景观符号、典型的地域符号和层累的文化符号,借助真实空间的具身体验和想象空间的文化建构,游客对额济纳绿洲展开丰富的生命想象、边塞想象与秘境想象,塑造出绿洲鲜明的地方意象。     

A National Key R&D Program: Technologies and Guidelines for Monitoring Ecological Quality of Terrestrial Ecosystems in China

Ecological quality is defined as the stability, adaptability and resilience of an ecosystem. Monitoring and assessing ecological quality are important bases for China's ecological civilization construction. The national key research and development program “Technologies and guidelines for monitoring ecological quality of terrestrial ecosystems in China”, launched in July 2017, includes plans to study the observation technologies and provide guidelines on the ecological in-situ observation, the regional biodiversity and ecosystem function monitoring and its applications, all of which contribute to national ecological quality assessment. A year after its implementation, some important progress has been achieved, such as building the indicator system for comprehensive monitoring of ecological quality and improvement of the methods, mass data transmission, infrared camera-based monitoring of biodiversity, multi-angle automatic spectral observation systems, and unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) based desert monitoring. We have organized this special issue and attempted to introduce the monitoring techniques and assessment methods on ecological quality from different perspectives in order to further promote the development of ecology and its observation methods.     

“一带一路”技术贸易格局演化研究

论文利用2001—2015年国家(地区)间的知识产权贸易额,通过构建全球和“一带一路”技术贸易网络,从技术供给和技术销售层面刻画了“一带一路”技术贸易格局及其动态变化过程,研究发现：① 在“一带一路”内部技术贸易网络中,内部技术进口格局由独联体、中东欧地区主导向东亚地区主导转变,内部技术出口格局由西亚地区“一极主导”向东盟-西亚-东亚“三极主导”格局转变,“一带一路”在内部国家(地区)技术供给链中的地位非常低下,大量的技术需要从外部进口,但“一带一路”作为技术销售市场在内部国家(地区)技术销售链中的地位显著提升;② 在“一带一路”外部技术贸易网络中,外部技术进口格局由东盟向东亚更替,而外部技术出口格局始终由以新加坡为核心的东盟地区主导,“一带一路”在国际技术销售市场中的地位显著提升,但其在国际技术供给链中的地位十分低下;③ 从技术贸易类型上看,内流型国家(地区)占主导,大部分“一带一路”国家(地区)依赖内部技术贸易来实现技术互补,而高技术贸易额国家(地区)大多都为“两头在外”型,“一带一路”区域技术贸易网络尚未形成。     

Review of Tourism Ecological Security from the Perspective of Ecological Civilization Construction

In the era of sustainable development, the ecological impact of the development of the tourism industry has attracted extensive attention from all walks of life. Generally considered, tourism ecological security (TES) is an important link to realize the high-quality development of tourism destinations and promote the construction of ecological civilization. Based on keyword discrimination of TES, tourism ecological risk and tourism ecological health, and from the perspective of ecological civilization construction, this paper uses the databases of Web of Science and CNKI as data sources to systematically comb and analyze TES research from the aspects of development process, research methods and research content, and puts forward the prospects for future research on this basis. This analysis found that research in the TES field presents four main characteristics. (1) The phased characteristic of “germination - exploration - development” is significant, and a relatively standard research framework of “evaluation - influencing factors - early warning - regulation” has been formed. (2) The empirical orientation of the research methods is distinct. (3) The development trend is characterized by small-scale dominance and a large-scale surge. (4) The disciplinary integration and practical combination have been continuously strengthened. Combined with the development trends and hot spots of TES, this paper proposes that the direction and goal of deepening TES research in the future should be carried out from the aspects of strengthening research on thresholds, early warning and regulation, improving the application of big data, constructing the synergistic effect mechanisms between tourism and ecology, and realizing the longitudinal deepening and interconnection of scale research.     

中国灾害风险与贫困互相关效应的理论分析与实证研究

在全球自然灾害频发和贫困长期且不均衡展布的背景下,灾害风险与贫困的联结成为学术界和利益相关者关注的焦点。基于自然灾害风险管理和社会-生态韧性评估的基本原理,系统论述了灾害致贫和贫困致险的作用机理与驱动路径,这种互相关效应称为灾害风险-贫困的“羁绊”;基于中国31个省（自治区、市）2010—2019年的面板数据,运用计量经济学回归分析方法,以证实减轻灾害风险和扶贫脱贫在省域尺度上存在双向加持的作用。结果表明：（1） 较高的致灾因子危险性、承灾体暴露性和脆弱性及复杂的灾害风险情景引发了人员伤亡、资产破坏和经济损失等多重负面影响,最终导致和加剧了经济、机会、能力和文化的多维度贫困;贫困群体农业生计和家庭资产的高暴露性和低韧性放大和累积了灾害风险。（2） 中国在脱贫攻坚和全面建设小康社会的进程中,减灾扶贫和脱贫降险的循环效应显著,籍此带来了乡村振兴、治理现代化等战略的属性加持。（3） 贫困致险的机制较为隐性且主要显现于广布型灾害风险情景,对其无视或轻视可能带来投资减灾失效、学科范式陷阱和不可持续发展等诸多后果。研究结果可为中国的减灾和扶贫协同发展提供理论依据和现实证据,并为贯彻落实经济、政治、文化、社会和生态文明建设“五位一体”战略,实现“双碳”目标和应对全球气候变化提供智力支撑。