首都圈人口空间分布优化策略——基于土地资源承载力估测

采用单项指标估测,分析了首都圈土地资源人口承载及其限制性,提出了人口空间分布优化策略。首都圈水资源及建设用地生态适宜量限制了人口承载能力,京津土地资源人口承载力已基本达到饱和,环京津的冀东、冀中地区承载潜力还较大,冀北地区应紧缩开发空间而拓展生态空间。首都圈土地资源开发利用及人口发展战略分区为：首都圈北部生态屏障建设区,人口限制发展;中部都市功能优化区,人口控制增长;东部人口产业沿海集聚区,人口鼓励增长;南部绿色空间优化区,人口适度增长。首都圈的健康发展,应实施差异化的土地利用及人口发展政策,整体提升人口承载力,并加大区域统筹力度,科学、合理地引导人口的空间分流和聚集。     

人口规模视角下城市公园绿地增长的差异与潜力 ——以我国地级及以上城市为例

以我国内地266个地级及以上城市为研究单元,选取公园绿地面积、城区人口指标构建市际面板数据模型,采用弹性系数法分析1997—2018年各城市公园绿地面积增长的时空分异并对其增长合理性进行非标准评价;运用残差分析法判断公园绿地面积增长的潜力。结果表明:从增长差异看,人口与公园绿地面积的增长差异波动下降,各城市增长差异呈小城市、中等城市、大城市规模递减趋势,大城市公园绿地建设压力最高,小城市内部城际差异最大;从发展潜力看,全国公园绿地面积的增长潜力逐年递增,呈中部、东北、西部、东部递减的分布格局,西部小城市的潜力最大。通过提出推进公园绿地与人口发展的统筹优化、挖掘土地利用潜力、促进区域协同发展等对策,为城市“因人制宜”制定公园绿地调控政策提供科学依据。     

重庆三峡生态经济区生态安全及对策

文章采用相对资源承载力的研究思路与计算方法，计算了2001年重庆三峡生态经济区相对土地资源承载力、相对经济承栽力和综合承载力，得出该地区超载人口占总人口的比例达37．4％、人地矛盾日益突出的结论。针对三峡库区的生态安全问题，提出了建立科学合理的生态补偿机制、库区立体管理模式、库区生态安全预警系统和绿色GDP核算体系；倡导各产业在生态安全下的生产经营运行模式；建立库区县市级管理责任定位体制，明确不同部门、地区对应库区生态流域单元的管理权限和责任；积极引导公众进行安全生产和科技减灾自救等相应的对策措施。     

大城市地区生态保留地划分原则与方法——以南京市为例

1990年代后期,我国沿海经济发达地区城市出现类似欧美城市的低密度蔓延趋势,造成农业用地和生态绿地急剧减少,破坏城市周边的生态环境。文章通过对生态保留地含义及目前存在问题的分析,探讨生态保留地划分的原则和方法,并结合南京生态市规划实践提出生态保留地划分的一般流程及关键步骤,为我国同类大城市地域的非建设用地规划提供理论与实践参照。     

特大城市群生态空间及其生态承载状态的时空分异

快速城镇化导致中国城市群地区生态空间被大量挤占,生态承载压力加剧,已成为制约城市群健康发展的重要因素。本文界定并分析了京津冀、长三角、粤港澳大湾区、成渝、长江中游5个特大城市群三生空间结构分布特征,解析了1990—2020年生态空间时空分异及其变化的影响因素,进一步通过水资源供给、水质调节、空气质量调节、休闲游憩探讨了近30年生态空间综合承载状态及其时空分异特征。研究结果表明：① 不同形成发育阶段的城市群呈现差异性的三生空间面积结构比、以多中心组合为主的生活空间拓展演变模式,以及屏障式、紧密、离散、全包围式的生态空间结构。② 1990—2020年城市群生活空间面积持续大幅度增加而生产空间呈现相反趋势,除粤港澳大湾区以外,生态空间均表现出增加态势尤其近10年增势明显。三生空间面积结构及其时空变化特征,说明特大城市群生产、生态空间的主要功能从供给转向调节和文化,并反映了中国从快速城镇化到新型可持续城镇化的转变。③ 5个城市群分别有78.6%、73.1%、54.5%、56.3%和25.8%市域呈现严重超载的综合生态承载状态,其中水资源供给、水质调节是制约城市群生态承载水平的要因,未来需要重视城市群生态空间保留量及其合理布局以减缓生态承载压力。本文可为城市群绿色可持续发展、三生空间结构优化和配置提供科学依据。     

城市绿色空间研究内容与展望

伴随社会经济快速发展,城市绿色空间对生态环境和宜居生活的作用逐渐受到关注。同时,随着城市建成区面积的不断扩大,城市绿色空间成为一种稀缺资源。不断减少的城市绿色空间,与城市人口的增加,以及其休闲健康功能需求的增长间形成了一种空间错位。如何合理规划绿色空间,发挥绿色空间的效用和功能,已成为城市地理学和城市规划实践中重要的研究内容。本文系统论述和梳理了城市绿色空间概念提出的背景和发展历程,并在此基础上综合分析不同学科对城市绿色空间的理解及研究成果,提出目前城市绿色空间的相关研究内容和进展;并对其研究趋势进行了分析,从城市规划建设、城市可持续发展、研究方法创新等方面提出了推动城市绿色空间相关研究的建议。     

开封市生态城市建设中的开放空间系统优化

通过城市开放空间系统的优化来加强生态城市建设 ,是推动城市进入可持续发展状态的重要途径。本文在阐述生态城市建设的意义、要求和城市开放空间系统优化的必要性的基础上 ,分析了开封市的城市特色和发展的新思路 ,提出了该市开放空间系统优化的理论基础 ,确定了应该遵循的原则。开封市开放空间系统的整体优化应从两方面入手 :第一 ,调整市区的空间布局结构 ,建立新的城市空间布局框架 ;第二 ,强化开放空间系统的圈层一体化 ,给生态城市建设提供强大的空间支持。开放空间系统的要素优化包含两个内容 :第一 ,优化绿色开放空间 ,努力做到林、园、水天然浑成 ,点、线、面密切结合 ;第二 ,优化灰色开放空间 ,努力做到对内交通、对外交通、广场车场协调发展 ,横道、竖道、环道有机结合。     

长三角地区城市土地利用与生态环境效应的交互作用机制研究

论文以“长江三角洲城市经济协调会”内16个核心成员城市作为典型案例,构建城市土地利用与生态环境效应评价指标体系,运用灰色关联评价模型探究2000—2015年间城市土地利用与生态环境效应的时空演变规律与耦合度变化,解析系统间交互作用机制。结果表明：① 长三角地区城市土地利用指数不断增加,社会经济发展与土地利用开发均起到正向促进作用。社会经济发展对城市生产、生活空间和环境质量产生更多需求,建设用地扩张、耕地面积被侵占、人口承载增大也是导致城市土地利用指数上升的重要因素。② 区域生态环境质量整体表现平稳,效应映射到空间上,变化幅度与演变特征明显。浙江省的城市生态环境质量高于上海与江苏的城市,这与环境自净能力、污染处理设施建设以及生态保护理念的宣传等因素相关。③ 城市土地利用与生态环境效应耦合度较低的城市占多数,处于失调状态。城镇化进程中用地扩张呈现低密度、分散化倾向,对生态安全和环境质量扰动强烈,导致城市土地利用与生态环境保护的空间偏离度加大。④ 城市土地利用系统与生态环境系统各要素间存在较强的相互作用关系,要素胁迫与约束作用强度大小差异明显。     

长三角地区城市人口-绿地面积异速增长特征及驱动机制

人口城镇化的快速推进与生态城镇化的建设滞后是中国快速城镇化进程中面临的重要问题。以长三角地区城市人口与绿地面积为研究对象,构建城市人口-绿地面积异速增长模型分析2000—2018年两者关系的时空变化规律,并运用地理探测器模型揭示异速增长的驱动机制。结果表明：① 长三角地区城市人口呈加速增长态势,绿地建设增长缓慢,城市人口-绿地面积异速关系逐渐由人地基本协调型转变为人口扩张弱型,2000—2008年多数城市表现出绿地扩张的特征,2009—2018年则转变为人口扩张的特征。② 教育投入度、人口集中度、设施供给度、土地开发度和对外开放度是影响长三角地区城市人口-绿地面积异速增长的主要因子,双因子交互解释力均高于单因子,各因子间的影响具有协同增强的特征。③ 长三角地区城市人口-绿地面积异速增长是行政力、市场力和外资力共同驱动的结果,三种驱动力彼此联系、协同作用,主导驱动力逐渐由行政力转变为市场力。     

The Evaluation of Urban Green Space Landscape Changes and Ecosystem Services in Beijing

As a very important part of the urban ecosystem, the urban green space system plays an active role in maintaining the urban ecosystem stability, providing ecosystem services, and improving the quality of the urban environment. In order to deal with the problems brought about by the deterioration of the urban ecological environment, it is necessary to study and analyze the spatial distribution pattern, evolutionary characteristics and ecosystem services of urban green space to maximize its ecological benefits and comprehensive functions. In this study, we took Beijing urban area as an example, and based on the spatial distribution data of urban green space and remote sensing data, we first calculated the urban green space type transition matrix, landscape pattern index and ecosystem services. Then, we analyzed the changes in urban green space landscape patterns, ecosystem services and their spatial distributions from 2000 to 2020, and studied the interactive relationships between landscape changes and changes in ecosystem services. The results showed three key findings. (1) Beijing’s urban green space construction has achieved remarkable results from 2000 to 2020. The area of green space has increased by 77.41%, mainly from cultivated land and construction land. (2) From 2000 to 2020, the amounts of dust retention, SO₂ absorption, NO₂ absorption, cooling and humidification, carbon fixation and oxygen release, and rainwater runoff reduction in Beijing's urban green space have shown continuous increases in general. (3) There is a close relationship between urban green space landscape changes and green space ecosystem services, and total area (TA) has the highest correlation with ecosystem services. Except for rainwater runoff reduction, the correlation coefficients between TA and ecosystem services are all higher than 0.85. This research can provide theoretical guidance for optimizing Beijing's green space and determining how to maximize the effect of green space for improving the ecological environment, and ultimately provide a scientific basis for the construction of Beijing's ecological environment.     

Developing open space networks in shrinking cities

Urban green spaces provide essential ecosystem services and improve resident quality of life, but open space networks are often fragmented by urban development, and it is difficult to reclaim natural lands after they have been built up. Shrinking cities (i.e., cities experiencing population decline) typically contain an abundance of vacant and abandoned residential buildings that are demolished for safety and maintenance reasons. The resulting empty lots can potentially be reclaimed as natural areas to defragment the green network and increase open space connectivity. To date however, planning efforts have largely ignored post-demolition land uses for these lots, allowing many to become empty wastelands. This research approaches this gap by presenting an alternative plan for residential demolition sites using landscape ecology principles and methods to incorporate them into the open space network. Using Buffalo, NY – a typical rustbelt shrinking city – as a case study, areas most at risk for experiencing demolitions are identified using a clustering technique, and each building within the cluster is assigned a likelihood it will be demolished using a logit model. Properties with the highest risk for demolition are then prioritized based on their ability to contribute to and connect the open space network using landscape connectivity metrics. Results indicate the approach can foster large increases in green network connectivity using small parcels (a 356% increase in total open space area was observed in this study after three years of purposeful selection), allowing cities to reclaim unused urban areas and defragment the open space network.     

Quantitative Assessment of Climate Carrying Capacity for Cities: A Case Study of Shanghai City

The concept of climate carrying capacity has been proposed recently for climate risk management. Based on identification of the concept of climate carrying capacity and analysis of the relationship among its influencing factors, this study established a comprehensive assessment indicator system of climate carrying capacity from aspects of the climate situation, the level of climate usage, and the development potential of cities. Taking Shanghai City as a case study, we developed a quantitative assessment model of climate carrying capacity. The climate carrying capacity and its influencing factors were analyzed and discussed in relation to the period 2004-2013. The results were as follows. (1) Current climate natural capacity indicator showed that the climatic situation of Shanghai City was inferior to its base climatic value and it had been in a state of fluctuation. (2) The climate stress and urban coordinated development capacity indicators increased steadily, but the growth rate of the urban coordinated development indicator was less than the growth rate of urban climate stress. (3) The climate carrying capacity was far lower than the benchmark value and it had been in a state of fluctuation mainly due to the effect of current climate situation. (4) According to a principal component analysis, seven factors of urban population density, per capita GDP, energy consumption per unit GDP, total industrial output value, investment in environment protection, spending on science and technology, and green area per capita were main influential factor of climate carrying capacity. It was proved that the proposed system for assessment of climate carrying capacity of a city was feasible. It can be used to describe the spatiotemporal changes of cities, and identify problems of regional climate carrying capacity associated with their development and function. This assessment system can provide a reference for the construction of an early warning system of climate carrying capacity for cities.     

中国城镇建设用地投入效益研究

 面对人多地少、位处工业化、城镇化加速发展阶段的现实状况,如何合理、有效配置（利用）土地资源成为我国当前可持续发展研究中的重要内容,而城镇建设用地投入效益评价则为土地资源的合理配置提供了理论依据和科学参考,为此对其进行评价具有重要的理论和现实意义。基于城镇建设用地投入效益的界定,认为其是一个基于生产性要素投入产出效率、人工复合生态系统内在经济、社会、生态环境效益耦合协调性、空间载荷强度及区域关系、制度安排合理程度的客观反映,据此构建评价体系,并以我国30个省（自治区、直辖市）为研究单元进行实证研究。结果表明：（1）我国城镇建设用地投入效益呈现出：水平特征——粗放、低效增长,内在经济、社会、生态环境系统耦合协调水平低,空间特征——分异明显,整体呈现出东部地区>西部地区>东北地区>中部地区的地理格局;（2）经济效益（3.500 5）>社会效益（3.019 3）>生态环境效益（1.332 9）的格局,在某种程度上映射出我国现有的宏观发展战略,存在重公平、忽视效率的弊端,严重扭曲了区际价值关系（“人人”矛盾尖锐）。为各省区配置城镇建设用地,进行区际生态补偿、财政转移支付以及省区内社会、经济、生态环境的协调可持续发展等提供了参考。     

基于“三生空间”的土地利用转型与生态环境效应——以长江三角洲核心区为例

以长江三角洲核心区为例,利用1990、2000、2010年3期遥感影像解译获取土地利用变化数据,按照“生产-生态-生活”土地利用主导功能分类,通过土地利用转移矩阵、生态环境质量指数、土地利用转型的生态贡献率等方法,定量分析长江三角洲地区土地利用转型、时空格局特征与生态环境效应。结果表明：① 1990~2010年,长三角地区基于“三生用地”的土地利用转型表现为生产用地减少,生态用地稳定,及生活用地快速增加。② 长三角地区生态环境质量指数从1990年的0.470持续降至2010年的0.444,整体质量有所恶化,较高质量区和高质量区面积与比重保持稳定。③ 1990~2010年,长三角地区同时存在生态改善和恶化的两种趋势,生态环境改善小于环境恶化的趋势。城镇和农村生活用地、工矿生产用地对农业生产用地的挤占则是导致生态环境质量恶化的重要原因。     

广州的城市化与生态环境建设

广州市在现代化过程中 ,要建成山水城市 ,也即生态城市 ,首先要正确理解城市化 ,合理布局城镇体系 ,搞好生态环境建设 ,包括林业、农业、水体等环境建设 ,优化城市环境 ,形成具有良性循环的城乡经济—生态体系。为此 ,必须搞好土地利用总体规划和科学的城市规划 ,保证建立合理用地结构     

土地整治:中国乡村空间重构的必由之路(英文)

The implementation of new type industrialization and urbanization and agricultural modernization strategies lacks of a major hand grip and spatial supporting platform, due to long-term existed "dual-track" structure of rural-urban development in China as well as unstable rural development institution and mechanism. It is necessary to restructure rural production, living and ecological space by carrying out land consolidation, so as to establish a new platform for building new countryside and realizing urban-rural integration development in China. This paper develops the concept and connotation of rural spatial restructuring. Basing on the effects analysis of industrialization and urbanization on rural production, living and ecological space, the mechanism of pushing forward rural spatial restructuring by carrying out land consolidation is probed. A conceptualization of the models of rural production, living and ecological spatial restructuring is analyzed combining with agricultural land consolidation, hollowed villages consolidation and industrial and mining land consolidation. Finally, the author argues that a "bottom-up" restructuring strategy accompanied by a few "top-down" elements is helpful for smoothly pushing forward rural spatial restructuring in China. In addition, the optimization and restructuring of rural production, living and ecological space will rely on the innovations of regional engineering technology, policy and mechanism, and mode of rural land consolidation, and more attentions should be paid to rural space, the foundation base and platform for realizing urban-rural integration development.     

Land consolidation: An indispensable way of spatial restructuring in rural China1简

The implementation of new type industrialization and urbanization and agricultural modernization strategies lacks of a major hand grip and spatial supporting platform, due to long-term existed ＂dual-track＂ structure of rural-urban development in China as well as un- stable rural development institution and mechanism. It is necessary to restructure rural pro- duction, living and ecological space by carrying out land consolidation, so as to establish a new platform for building new countryside and realizing urban-rural integration development in China. This paper develops the concept and connotation of rural spatial restructuring. Basing on the effects analysis of industrialization and urbanization on rural production, living and ecological space, the mechanism of pushing forward rural spatial restructuring by carry- ing out land consolidation is probed. A conceptualization of the models of rural production, living and ecological spatial restructuring is analyzed combining with agricultural land con- solidation, hollowed villages consolidation and industrial and mining land consolidation. Fi- nally, the author argues that a ＂bottom-up＂ restructuring strategy accompanied by a few ＂top-down＂ elements is helpful for smoothly pushing forward rural spatial restructuring in China. In addition, the optimization and restructuring of rural production, living and ecological space will rely on the innovations of regional engineering technology, policy and mechanism, and mode of rural land consolidation, and more attentions should be paid to rural space, the foundation base and platform for realizing urban-rural integration development.     

Analyzing the Impacts of Urban Expansion on Green Fragmentation Using Constraint Gradient Analysis

Many existing gradient analysis methods are arbitrary or too simple in gradient partitioning and unsuitable for cities with irregular forms. We propose an improved gradient analysis method with urban structural features as spatial constraints to properly partition an urban area into more homogeneous buffers. Taking the Wuhan metropolitan area in China as an example, we use the improved gradient partitioning method and six landscape metrics to characterize urban expansion and green space fragmentation in 1989, 2001, and 2013 and investigate the relationship between urban green fragmentation and urban expansion using correlation analysis and regression modeling. The results show that the fragmentation of built-up area in each buffer generally decreases from 1989 to 2013, but the fragmentation of green space increases. For each time point, with growing distance from urban centers, the fragmentation of built-up area increases and green space fragmentation decreases. This shows that urbanization exerts a significant influence on fragmentation of urban green space from both a temporal and a spatial perspective. Intensive urban expansion moved outward mainly at the cost of agricultural land and resulted in more fragmented green space in the urban fringe. Further quantitative analyses show that the area ratio and fragmentation of the built-up area are statistically negatively correlated with the fragmentation of green space. The improved gradient analysis with spatial constraints can generate more homogeneous ring gradients and then lead to more reasonable results, thereby helping to better understand how urban expansion affects landscape dynamics.     

基于生态足迹的天山北坡经济带生态承载力评价与预测

生态承载力是测度区域社会经济发展对资源与环境系统压力程度的重要标尺。基于生态足迹法,构建生态承载力的评价与预测模型,分别评价和预测了2010年与2015年天山北坡经济带的生态足迹和承载力。结果表明：2010年天山北坡经济带生态足迹组分以草地和能源用地为主,约占足迹总量的93%,人均生态承载力总体高于人均生态足迹;2015年生态承载状况仍然总体盈余。但随着人口快速增长以及人均消费能力提高,2015年人均生态承载力已经低于2010年水平,城镇化对未利用地的开发形成用地总量供给的增加可能是维持生态盈余的主要原因之一。经济发展与城镇化进程对区域可持续发展造成一定压力,需要对资源环境承载能力加强监测预警。     

西北干旱地区绿洲城市土地生态安全动态评价——以新疆库尔勒市为例

土地生态安全是一个地区生存和发展的核心。以新疆第二大城市库尔勒市为研究靶区,运用三角模型,建立评价指标体系,通过熵权法计算各指标的权重,分别计算得到EI、NSI、NREI三组综合指数,在此基础上计算出各指标的影响度。从时间序列上对“十二五”规划期间内库尔勒市土地生态安全状况进行评价,并对其主要影响因子进行分析。结果表明：（1）库尔勒市土地生态安全综合指数呈现极不安全-较不安全的趋势。（2）影响库尔勒市土地生态安全的限制性因子主要是人口城市化水平、一般工业固体废物产生量以及排水管道密度。综上所述,库尔勒市土地生态安全现状极不安全,此研究将为改善生态状况提供科学依据。