基于数值模拟的三峡库区典型堆积层滑坡变形预测方法

目前对堆积层滑坡的变形预测大多基于数学模型或方法,忽略了引起滑坡位移显著变化的动力外因及滑坡自身的地质特征,因此,预报准确度和可信度较低。以三峡库区典型堆积层滑坡--鹤峰场镇滑坡为例,通过4组主要控制因素科学组合构建了滑坡的基本地质模型;以此为基础,重点考虑引起滑坡发生变形的库水作用动力因素,建立滑坡的数值-力学模型。通过实际监测点的变形监测结果与数值-力学模型中模型监测点的变形进行拟合分析,获取了实际时间与数值-力学模型中时步的等效关系;基于时间-时步等效关系及三峡水库设计水位调度曲线,得到了不同时步水位的波动特征;通过时步的外延,并在相应的时步段对数值-力学模型施加等效时间的库水作用,预测了滑坡在未来库水位变动条件下的变形。该预测方法既考虑了滑坡的工程地质模型又考虑了地下水作用效应,克服了纯数学方法预测的不足。     

库水位变化对观音坪滑坡稳定性影响的数值分析

为深入探究水库水位变化对滑坡稳定的影响,以西南地区某库岸滑坡为例,在探明滑坡工程地质条件和成因机制的基础上,通过建立三维数值模型来分析流固耦合作用下库水位变化对库岸滑坡稳定性及滑动模式的影响。通过数值计算,获得水库天然状态、初期蓄水、水位上升和下降条件下滑坡体内塑性区分布和x方向位移变化情况。结合数值计算结果和滑坡实际变形破坏规律综合分析库水位变化对库岸滑坡稳定性的影响。分析结果显示,水库初期蓄水造成滑坡体变形开裂,使坡体处于不稳定状态;水位上升对滑坡稳定性影响较小,水位下降后滑坡稳定性大幅降低,极可能发生失稳破坏;水库蓄水后坡体滑动模式由推移式向牵引式转变。     

Prediction of the water waves generated by a potential semisubmerged landslide in La Yesca reservoir,Mexico

This paper presents a study of the effects of a potential landslide in La Yesca Reservoir, Jalisco-Nayarit, Mexico. The main purpose of the paper is to predict the maximum wave amplitude, wave run-up, and dam overtopping. The landslide is formed by an unstable slope of more than 24 Mm³ that is partially submerged for the range of the reservoir operation levels. The dynamics of the sliding mass were obtained in detail considering that it moves over a pair of failure surfaces with the potential rupture of a third surface. The paper presents results of a physical model of the reservoir based on Froude similitude (scale 1:200). Impulse waves are produced with a solid wedge shape slide as it moves on rails. The movement was calibrated to reproduce the dynamics of the landslide. Also, numerical modelling of the event was performed with a 2D implicit model that solves the two-dimensional shallow water equations. In this case, the impulse waves were generated at each time increment with the variation of the ground elevation (obtained from the dynamics of the landslide) for the mesh points where the landslide passes. The results of both studies are similar.     

三峡库区藕塘滑坡变形特点及复活机制研究

为深入研究库区古滑坡变形特征及其复活机理,文章以三峡库区藕塘滑坡为研究对象,通过对钻孔、探槽及平硐等现场勘查资料和监测资料的深入分析,并结合数值模拟方法,探讨了藕塘滑坡的时-空变形特点及影响因素,并揭示其复活机制。电子自旋共振试验和现场勘查结果表明藕塘滑坡由三个次级滑体组成。监测数据显示:总体上,地表累计位移-时间曲线呈阶跃状变化,即雨季滑坡变形速率急剧加快,旱季则骤减;在空间上滑坡的变形速率随高程的增加而增加。库水和降雨是导致藕塘滑坡变形破坏的主要因素:滑坡下部区域变形主要受库水影响,而滑坡中、上部区域变形主要受降雨影响。数值模拟结果也进一步揭示了影响滑坡孔隙水压力响应的主控因素随滑坡高程的变化而变化。库水骤降使得坡体前部渗透压增大,同时强降雨使得坡体中部及上部孔隙水压力升高,二者共同作用下导致滑坡复活。此外库水位下降或降雨量增加,均会不同程度降低边坡的稳定性。以上结论对于指导实际工程及深化库区古滑坡的研究具有一定的理论意义,同时加强古滑坡的研究有助于丰富滑坡稳定性评价及预测预报方法,为古滑坡的治理提供一定的理论依据。     

Numerical modeling of subaerial and submarine landslide-generated tsunami waves—recent advances and future challenges

Landslide-generated waves (LGWs) are among natural hazards that have stimulated attentions and concerns of engineers and researchers during the past decades. At the same period, the application of numerical modeling has been progressively increased to assess, control, and manage the risks of such hazards. This paper represents an overview of numerical studies on LGWs to explore associated recent advances and future challenges. In this review, the main landslide events followed by an LGW hazard are scrutinized. The uncertainty regarding landslide characteristics and the lack of data concerning generated tsunami properties highlights the necessity of probabilistic analysis and numerical modeling. More than 53 % of landslides show the slide length larger than about 20 times of the slide thickness. This fact justifies the popular application of depth-averaged equations (DAEs) for landslides’ motion simulations. Such models are reviewed and tabulated based on their mathematical, numerical, and conceptual approaches. A landslide is generally treated as a homogeneous, mixture, or a multi-phase fluid with different rheologies. The Coulomb type rheology is the most-used rheology applied in more than 70 % of landslide models. Some of the recent studies are considering the effects of multi-phase nature, dynamic changes of rheological parameters, and grain-size segregation of the landslide on its deformations. The numerical tools that model LGWs are also reviewed, categorized, and examined. These models conceptualize a landslide as a general rigid LGW (R-LGW) or deformable LGW (D-LGW) mass. The rigid slide assumption is mainly applied in the LGW models with a focus on the accurate simulation of the wave propagation stage, particularly by means of higher order Boussinesq-type wave equations (BWEs). The majority of D-LGW models solve either the Navier–Stokes equations (NSEs) for a multi-phase (landslide material, water, and air) flow or the shallow water equations (SWEs) for a two-layer (a layer of granular material moving beneath a layer of water) flow. NSEs are more comprehensive models but less robust than DAEs. The key effect of dispersion in LGWs, which are typically important in intermediate and even deep water wave domains, challenges researchers to apply higher order BWEs instead of SWEs in two-layer models. Regarding numerical approaches, Lagrangian’s are more robust than Eulerian’s, but they have been rarely applied due to their high computational demands for real cases. The remaining challenges are reviewed as the necessity of probabilistic analysis to assess the risk of the related hazards more accurately for both past and potential LGW hazards; further thorough laboratory-scale experiments and field data measurements to have accurate and detailed benchmark data; providing RS/GIS-based worldwide hazard map for potential LGWs and compiled database for occurred events; extending BWEs for granular flows and DAEs with non-hydrostatic corrections; and economizing the computational costs of models by advanced techniques like parallel processing and GPU accelerators.     

A modified finite difference model for the modeling of flowslides

In this paper, a modified finite difference model is proposed to simulate the propagation of flowslides. Modifications of the new model are conducted by calculating the lateral pressure coefficient k in the sliding mass and the entrainment and centrifugal effect during the transport process. The strength parameters are modified based on the size of the entrainment to consider the change in the landslide strength due to material mixing. Two dam break problems are simulated to test the accuracy and stability of the numerical scheme, and the results show good agreement with the analytical solutions and the measured data. Then, the model is used to analyze a typical flowslide: the Dagou landslide in Gansu Province, China. The model can accurately predict the details of the motion of the landslide, especially behaviors such as turning along the meandering gully and thrusting on the gully slopes due to centrifugal force.     

国内外典型工程滑坡灾害比较

在搜集和梳理全球一个多世纪以来灾难性工程滑坡实例的基础上,将人类工程活动诱发的滑坡分为4种基本类型和若干亚类：①采矿工程滑坡（包括地下采空型、露天采场型、尾矿坝及排土场型）;②水利水电工程滑坡（包括库区岸坡型、水库大坝型、灌溉工程型）;③线性基础设施工程滑坡（包括公路及铁路工程型、油气管道工程型）;（鸯城市建设复合型工程滑坡。重点剖析了国内外著名的工程滑坡灾害案例,并兼顾一般工程滑坡的共性特征进行分析,综述了各类典型工程滑坡灾害的发育特征、形成机制及部分处置措施。通过不同类型工程滑坡特征的比较分析,总结了工程滑坡成灾的教训和成功处置的经验,为未来工程项目区和城市化过程中工程滑坡的综合防治及风险减缓提供了参考。     

Assessing seismic response of a 2D roller-compacted concrete dam under variable reservoir lengths

Finite element method (FEM) is effectively used for evaluating roller-compacted concrete (RCC) dams, especially in high seismicity zones. The aim of this study is to investigate the effect of various reservoir lengths on the seismic response of a selected RCC dam under strong ground motion effects. Six different reservoir lengths, the lengths varies from h/2 to 10h (h, the height of dam), are used within finite element models. The hydrodynamic pressure of the reservoir water is modelled with the 2D fluid finite elements based on the Lagrangian approach. The horizontal and vertical components of the 1989 Mw 6.9 Loma Prieta earthquake are utilized in numerical analyses. The non-linear time-history analyses of those six models are investigated by using Drucker-Prager material model. According to the numerical analysis, it is obvious that the seismic behavior of the RCC dams is considerably dependent on the reservoir length. By increasing the length, we have obtained higher displacement values, which exist until the reservoir length reaches the 3h; at increased lengths, the values remain stable. This result proposes that 3h reservoir length is adequate to assess the seismic response of RCC dams. The principal tensile stresses are relatively lower in non-linear analysis compared to linear analyses. However, the principal compression stresses are close to each other in linear and non-linear analyses. The results imply that the non-linear response is influential on the total seismic response of a dam, which cannot be neglected in numerical analysis.     

Development of an empirical model for predicting peak breach flow of landslide dams considering material composition

The existing empirical models do not consider the influence of material composition of landslide deposits on the peak breach flow due to the uncertainty in the material composition and the randomness of its distribution. In this study, based on the statistical analyses and case comparison, the factors influencing the peak breach flow were comprehensively investigated. The highlight is the material composition-based classification of landslide deposits of 86 landslide cases with detailed grain-size distribution information. In order to consider the geometric morphology of landslide dams and the potential energy of dammed lakes, as well as the material composition of landslide deposits in an empirical model, a multiple regression method was applied on a database, which comprises of 44 documented landslide dam breach cases. A new empirical model for predicting the peak breach flow of landslide dams was developed. Furthermore, for the same 44 documented landslide dam failures, the predicted peak breach flow obtained by using the existing empirical models for embankment and landslide dams and that obtained by using the newly developed model were compared. The comparison of the root mean square error (E_rms) and the multiple coefficient of determination (R²) for each empirical model verifies the accuracy and rationality of the new empirical model. Furthermore, for fair validation, several landslide dam breach cases that occurred in recent years in China and have reliable measured data were also used in another comparison. The results show that the new empirical model can reasonably predict the peak breach flow, and exhibits the best performance among all the existing empirical models for embankment and landslide dam breaching.

     

库岸滑坡涌浪经验估算方法对比分析

分别介绍了3种常用的库岸滑坡涌浪经验估算方法--美国土木工程学会推荐方法、潘家铮方法和水科院经验公式法。针对乐昌峡水库鹅公带古滑坡体滑坡涌浪预测问题,采用3种常用经验估算方法,并构建几何比尺1:150的物理模型,对设计洪水位和正常蓄水位条件下滑坡体不同滑速所产生的涌浪进行计算和测试。通过滑坡入水点对岸山坡涌浪爬高、坝前涌浪爬高和B3测点涌浪高度结果的对比分析,发现3种常用经验估算法计算结果差异较大,其中潘家铮方法与模型试验结果最为接近。通过对计算结果差异的进一步分析,推荐在采用经验估算法进行库岸滑坡涌浪预测时选择潘家铮方法,此外,还解释了物理模型试验中所出现的一些现象,可供库岸滑坡涌浪预测参考。     

屋檐洞溶洼水库坝体工程条件与渗漏分析

溶洼成库，是岩溶区地下水开发的主要途径之一。屋檐洞溶洼水库是封堵地下河形成的地下、地表联合水库，堵体位于距地表182m的地下河道中。除主体工程外，坝体上部有厚110m的松散堆积作为天然坝体。通过实地勘测、钻探及物探等成果资料和地下河试堵工程观察分析，上部松散体主要由滑坡堆积而成。本文对滑坡体的成因条件和坝体工程地质特征进行分析，认为滑坡是由水流冲刷、地貌、岩体结构及外应力等的共同作用产生的，对坝体的稳定具有一定的影响，但滑坡体渗漏是成库的关键。按不同渗漏条件，可分为上部松散体及岩溶裂隙和层间错动带的渗漏，渗漏点分布于550m高程以上。通过研究，该坝体在采取相应工程措施处理的基础上，蓄水高程可达650m左右，可形成以地下河道为主要蓄水空间的溶洼水库。     

Predictive uncertainty of peak outflow relations for landslides dam breach

Risk assessment development considering the failure of landslide dams often requires the estimation of peak outflow through the breach. The empirical equations based on data from case studies tend to be the first direct approach. This paper conducted an uncertainty analysis when these empirical relations were utilized to predict the peak outflow of a breached landslide dam. The results suggest that the relations derived from manmade dams or embankments typically overestimate the peak outflow about 1/5 to 3/4 of an order of magnitude; and the relations derived from the database of landslide dams have much smaller mean prediction errors and also exhibit broad uncertainty bands. Application of the uncertainly analysis was illustrated by the Tangjiashan landslide dammed lake, formed during 2008 Wenchuan earthquake. In addition, the predicted results from Eq. 1 deduced herein were considered to be the reliable estimate of peak outflow through the breach of landslide dam.     

A new global landslide dam database (RAGLAD) and analysis utilizing auxiliary global fluvial datasets

To address the current data and understanding knowledge gap in landslide dam inventories related to geomorphological parameters, a new global-scale landslide dam dataset named River Augmented Global Landslide Dams (RAGLAD) was created. RAGLAD is a collection of landslide dam records from multiple data sources published in various languages and many of these records we have been able to precisely geolocate. In total, 779 landslide dam records were compiled from 34 countries/regions. The spatial distribution, time trend, triggers, and geomorphological characteristic of the landslides and catchments where landslide dams formed are summarized. The relationships between geomorphological characteristics for landslides that form river dams are discussed and compared with those of landslides more generally. Additionally, a potential threshold for landslide dam formation is proposed, based on the relationship of landslide volume to river width. Our findings from our analysis of the value of the use of additional fluvial datasets to augment the database parameters indicate that they can be applied as a reliable supplemental data source, when the landslide dam records were accurately and precisely geolocated, although location precision in smaller river catchment areas can result in some uncertainty at this scale. This newly collected and supplemented dataset will allow the analysis and development of new relationships between landslides located near rivers and their actual propensity to block those particular rivers based on their geomorphology.

     

A two-layer model for simulating landslide dam over mobile river beds

Landslides can block mountainous streams and form landslide dams to threaten downstream residents. It is necessary for reliable methods to predict landslide dam dynamic for risk assessment. In this paper, we present a two-layer model of Savage–Hutter type to simulate the dynamic evolution of landslide dam which take account of the erosion of river bed. The two-layer shallow water system is derived by depth-averaging the incompressible Navier–Stokes equations with the hydrostatic assumption integrated of the erosion model of river bed. The effect of excess pore water pressure is considered in the erosion process. A high order accuracy scheme based on Roe-type solver is used to discretize the present model. Finally, several numerical tests are performed to verify the stability of the algorithm and reliability of the model. Numerical results indicate that the erosion effect enhances the huge destructiveness of landslide and increase the possibility of river blocked by landslides. The impact of excess pore water pressure on erosion process should be considered.     

基于滑坡风险评价的水电站坝址比选研究

针对滑坡风险在水电工程进行坝址比选时量化评价的问题,提出了基于滑坡风险评价的坝址比选研究方法,在综合考虑滑坡危险性分析、易损性分析和破坏性评价的基础上,引入滑坡体重要性系数、工程影响系数、距离模数、滑坡体状况系数、工况发生年概率等5个指标参数,综合考虑滑坡体客观情况与人类活动影响因素,建立以年期望值为指标的水电工程滑坡灾害评价体系。用坝址安全风险指标、堵江引起发电量损失指标、河道清淤指标、库内清淤指标、涌浪破坏损失指标、人口易损性指标和自然易损性指标等指标作为标准对坝址选择进行风险综合评价,可有效避免在安全风险指标相似情况下坝址风险确定难的问题。通过对滑坡体造成的破坏损失评价,运用安全与经济性相平衡原则,得出基于风险评价的坝址比选结果。以雅砻江卡拉水电站坝址选择为计算实例,得出同一量纲下的计算分析结果,该结果更直观可靠,为坝址比选提供了依据。     

库区滑坡的次生灾害分析与研究——以藕塘滑坡为例

滑坡除直接成灾外,还会产生次生灾害,滑坡体落入江河中,可形成巨大涌浪,造成较大的危害。涌浪高度除受滑速、失稳体积、水深等重要因素的影响外,波浪的形成还要受水库地形、库面宽度、滑坡入库过程的持续时间以及滑坡体的宽度等因素的影响,尤其在峡谷地区更为显著,且波浪在传播过程中,还受到河谷两岸的阻碍、往返的折射以及波群的相互干扰或迭加等影响。以藕塘滑坡为例,在滑波局部失稳情况下采用潘家铮涌浪算法,计算和预测滑体冲入库区后的滑速和造成的涌浪高度,并且考虑了地震作用和滑坡前缘泡在水中所产生的阻力。     

Geomechanical interpretation of the Downie Slide considering field data and three-dimensional numerical modelling

Downie Slide has been interpreted as a massive, composite rockslide, and a number of landslide zones have been defined based on the interpretation of morphological features and a detailed assessment of spatially discriminated slope behaviour. Key factors controlling the mechanics of massive slow-moving landslides can be interpreted through the observation and detailed study of the slope behaviour and physical characteristics. Once identified, key components influencing slope deformation can be tested using three-dimensional numerical models. Two series of numerical simulations have been developed to test how explicitly defined internal shear zones, and the interaction between landslide morphological regions, influence global landslide behaviour. Results from these numerical simulations, when compared to field monitoring data, indicate that internal shear zones have little influence on Downie Slide deformation, while the interaction between morphological zones plays a larger role in slope kinematics.     

李家峡水电站坝前水库滑坡蓄水前后稳定性预测

基于位移监测、数值计算、室内和现场试验等成果,从动力学角度开展了李家峡坝前水库滑坡稳定性预测的系统研究,获得了其滑带土的蠕变特性及水库滑坡的蠕滑机制,提出滑面剪应力比和滑带土黏滞系数的增减是决定滑坡能否从蠕滑转入剧滑的内在条件;通过模拟水库运行环境,完成了代表性滑块的现场促滑试验,研究表明:该类试验既是论证滑坡蠕滑机制的可靠方法,也是水库滑坡增稳治理的有效手段之一.     

A rigorous finite volume model to simulate subaerial and submarine landslide-generated waves

This paper presents a new landslide-generated wave (LGW) model based on incompressible Euler equations with Savage-Hutter assumptions. A two-layer model is developed including a layer of granular-type flow beneath a layer of an inviscid fluid. Landslide is modeled as a two-phase Coulomb mixture. A well-balanced second-order finite volume formulation is applied to solve the model equations. Wet/dry transitions are treated properly using a modified non-linear method. The numerical model is validated using two sets of experimental data on subaerial and submarine LGWs. Impulsive wave characteristics and landslide deformations are estimated with a computational error less than 5 %. Then, the model is applied to investigate the effects of landslide deformations on water surface fluctuations in comparison with a simpler model considering a rigid landslide. The model results confirm the importance of both rheological behavior and two-phase nature of landslide in proper estimation of generated wave properties and formation patterns. Rigid slide modeling often overestimates the characteristics of induced waves. With a proper rheological model for landslide, the numerical prediction of LGWs gets more than 30 % closer to experimental measurements. Single-phase landslide results in relative errors up to about 30 % for maximum positive and about 70 % for maximum negative wave amplitudes. Two-phase constitutive structure of landslide has also strong effects on landslide deformations, velocities, elongations, and traveling distances. The complex behaviors of landslide and LGW of the experimental data are analyzed and described with the aid of the robust and accurate finite volume model. This can provide benchmark data for testing other numerical methods and models.     

黄河上游戈龙布滑坡高速下滑成因机制及堵江分析

黄河上游戈龙布滑坡位于积石峡水电站库区内,经过现场调查可知,戈龙布滑坡为一大型滑坡,整个滑坡体积达到5040万m3,一共分为4个区。研究表明,戈龙布滑坡成因机制为滑移－拉裂型,滑坡在黄河右岸经过高速远程下滑过后撞击上游山体,部分滑体越过黄河堆积于左岸并堵塞黄河达数百年,堰塞湖内有厚度达30余米的纹泥沉积,初步分析滑坡坝的高度在100m左右,库水深在70m左右,滑坡堵江时代在Q4时期。滑坡坝溃决后导致黄河改道,残留的滑体分别位移黄河的左岸和右岸。