Southern Ocean warming and increased ice shelf basal melting in the twenty-first and twenty-second centuries based on coupled ice-ocean finite-element modelling

We utilise a global finite-element sea ice–ocean model (FESOM), focused on the Antarctic marginal seas, to analyse projections of ice shelf basal melting in a warmer climate. Ice shelf–ocean interaction is described using a three-equation system with a diagnostic computation of temperature and salinity at the ice–ocean interface. A tetrahedral mesh with a minimumhorizontal resolution of 4 km and hybrid vertical coordinates is used. Ice shelf draft, cavity geometry, and global ocean bathymetry have been derived from the RTopo-1 data set. The model is forced with the atmospheric output from two climate models: (1) the Hadley Centre Climate Model (HadCM3) and (2) Max Planck Institute’s ECHAM5/MPI-OM coupled climate model. Results from experiments forced with their twentieth century output are used to evaluate the modelled present-day ocean state. Sea ice coverage is largely realistic in both simulations; modelled ice shelf basal melt rates compare well with observations in both cases, but are consistently smaller for ECHAM5/MPI-OM. Projections for future ice shelf basal melting are computed using atmospheric output for the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) scenarios E1 and A1B. In simulations forced with ECHAM5 data, trends in ice shelf basal melting are small. In contrast, decreasing convection along the Antarctic coast in HadCM3 scenarios leads to a decreasing salinity on the continental shelf and to intrusions of warm deep water of open ocean origin. In the case of the Filchner–Ronne Ice Shelf (FRIS), this water reaches deep into the cavity, so that basal melting increases by a factor of 4 to 6 compared to the present value of about 90 Gt/year. By the middle of the twenty-second century, FRIS becomes the dominant contributor to total ice shelf basal mass loss in these simulations. Our results indicate that the surface freshwater fluxes on the continental shelves may be crucial for the future of especially the large cold water ice shelves in the Southern Ocean.     

Ocean/ice shelf interaction in the southern Weddell Sea: results of a regional numerical helium/neon simulation

Ocean/ice interaction at the base of deep-drafted Antarctic ice shelves modifies the physical properties of inflowing shelf waters to become Ice Shelf Water (ISW). In contrast to the conditions at the atmosphere/ocean interface, the increased hydrostatic pressure at the glacial base causes gases embedded in the ice to dissolve completely after being released by melting. Helium and neon, with an extremely low solubility, are saturated in glacial meltwater by more than 1000%. At the continental slope in front of the large Antarctic caverns, ISW mixes with ambient waters to form different precursors of Antarctic Bottom Water. A regional ocean circulation model, which uses an explicit formulation of the ocean/ice shelf interaction to describe for the first time the input of noble gases to the Southern Ocean, is presented. The results reveal a long-term variability of the basal mass loss solely controlled by the interaction between waters of the continental shelf and the ice shelf cavern. Modeled helium and neon supersaturations from the Filchner–Ronne Ice Shelf front show a “low-pass” filtering of the inflowing signal due to cavern processes. On circumpolar scales, the simulated helium and neon distributions allow us to quantify the ISW contribution to bottom water, which spreads with the coastal current connecting the major formation sites in Ross and Weddell Seas.

A box model of circulation and melting in ice shelf caverns

A simple box model of the circulation into and inside the ocean cavern beneath an ice shelf is used to estimate the melt rates of Antarctic glaciers and ice shelves. The model uses simplified cavern geometries and includes a coarse parameterization of the overturning circulation and vertical mixing. The melting/freezing physics at the ice shelf/ocean interface are those usually implemented in high-resolution circulation models of ice shelf caverns. The model is driven by the thermohaline inflow conditions and coupling to the heat and freshwater exchanges at the sea surface in front of the cavern. We tune the model for Pine Island Glacier and then apply it to six other major caverns. The dependence of the melting rate on thermohaline conditions at the ice shelf front is investigated for this set of caverns, including sensitivity studies, alternative parameterizations, and warming scenarios. An analytical relation between the melting rate and the inflow temperature is derived for a particular model version, showing a quadratic dependence of basal melting on small values of the temperature of the inflow, which changes to a linear dependence for larger values. The model predicts melting at all ice shelf bases in agreement with observations, ranging from below a meter per year for Ronne Ice Shelf to about 25 m/year for the Pine Island Glacier. In a warming scenario with a one-degree increase of the inflow temperature, the latter glacier responds with a 1.4-fold increase of the melting rate. Other caverns respond by more than a tenfold increase, as, e.g., Ronne Ice Shelf. The model is suitable for use as a simple fast module izn coarse large-scale ocean models.     

Ross ice shelf cavity circulation,residence time,and melting: Results from a model of oceanic chlorofluorocarbons

Despite their harmful effects in the upper atmosphere, anthropogenic chlorofluorocarbons dissolved in seawater are extremely useful for studying ocean circulation and ventilation, particularly in remote locations. Because they behave as a passive tracer in seawater, and their atmospheric concentrations are well-mixed, well-known, and have changed over time, they are ideal for gaining insight into the oceanographic characteristics of the isolated cavities found under Antarctic ice shelves, where direct observations are difficult to obtain. Here we present results from a modeling study of air–sea chlorofluorocarbon exchange and ocean circulation in the Ross Sea, Antarctica. We compare our model estimates of oceanic CFC-12 concentrations along an ice shelf edge transect to field data collected during three cruises spanning 16 yr. Our model produces chlorofluorocarbon concentrations that are quite similar to those measured in the field, both in magnitude and distribution, showing high values near the surface, decreasing with depth, and increasing over time. After validating modeled circulation and air–sea gas exchange through comparison of modeled temperature, salinity, and chlorofluorocarbons with field data, we estimate that the residence time of water in the Ross Ice Shelf cavity is approximately 2.2 yr and that basal melt rates for the ice shelf average 10 cm yr⁻¹. The model predicts a seasonal signature to basal melting, with highest melt rates in the spring and also the fall.     

Transport and structure of the Weddell Gyre

A cyclonic gyre controls the advection of source waters into the formation areas of bottom water in the southern and western parts of the Weddell Sea and the subsequent transport of modified water masses to the north. Determination of the structure of the Weddell Gyre and of the associated transports was one of the objectives of the “Weddell Gyre Study” which began in September 1989 and ended in January 1993. The collected data set comprises records of moored current meters and profiles of temperature and salinity distributed along a transect between the northern tip of the Antarctic Peninsula and Kapp Norvegia. The circulation pattern on the transect is dominated by stable boundary currents of several hundred kilometers width at the eastern and western sides of the basin. They are of comparable size on both sides and provide nearly 90% of the volume transport of the gyre which amounts to 29.5 Sv. In the interior, a weak anticyclonic cell of 800 km diameter transports less than 4 Sv. Apart from the continental slopes, the near-bottom currents flow at some locations in an opposite direction to those in the water column above, indicating a significant baroclinic component of the current field. The intensity of the boundary currents is subject to seasonal fluctuations, whereas in the interior, time scales from days to weeks dominate. The large-scale circulation pattern is persistent during the years 1989 to 1991. The heat transport into the southern Weddell Sea is estimated to be 3.48×10¹³ W. This implies an equivalent heat loss through the sea surface of 19 W m⁻², as an average value for the area south of the transect. The derived salt transport is not significantly different from zero; consequently, the salt gain by sea ice formation has to compensate almost entirely the fresh water gain from the melting ice shelves and from precipitation. Estimation of water mass formation rates from the thermohaline differences of the inflow and outflow through the transect indicates that 6.0 Sv of Warm Deep Water are transformed into 2.6 Sv of Weddell Sea Bottom Water, into 1.2 Sv of Weddell Sea Deep Water, and into 2.2 Sv of surface water.     

On the influence of adequate Weddell Sea characteristics in a large-scale global ocean circulation model

Global ocean circulation models usually lack an adequate consideration of high-latitude processes due to a limited model domain or insufficient resolution. Without the processes in key areas of the global thermohaline circulation, the characteristics and flow of deep and bottom waters cannot be modeled realistically. In this study, a high-resolution (~20 km) ocean model focused on the Weddell Sea sector of the Southern Ocean is combined with a low-resolution (2^° × 2^°) global ocean model applying the state estimation technique. Temperature, salinity, and velocity data on two Weddell Sea sections from the regional model are used as constraints for the large-scale model in addition to satellite altimetry and sea-surface temperatures. The differences between the model with additional constraints and without document that the Weddell Sea circulation exerts significant influence on the course of the Antarctic Circumpolar Current with consequences for Southern Ocean water mass characteristics and the spreading of deep and bottom waters in the South Atlantic. Furthermore, a warming trend in the period 1993–2001 was found in the Weddell Sea and adjacent basins in agreement with float measurements in the upper Southern Ocean. Teleconnections to the North Atlantic are suggested but need further studies to demonstrate their statistical significance.     

Modification of water masses in the Barents Sea and its coupling to ice dynamics: a model study

The physical and biological environment of the Barents Sea is characterised by large variability on a wide range of scales. Results from a numerical ocean model, SINMOD, are presented showing that the physical variability is partly forced by changes in annual net ice import. The mean contribution from ice import in the simulation period (1979–2007) is about 40% of the total amount of ice melted each year. The annual ice import into the Barents Sea varies between 143 and 1,236 km³, and this causes a substantial variability in the amount of annual ice melt in the Barents Sea. This in turn impacts the freshwater content. The simulated freshwater contribution from ice is 0.02 Sv on average and 0.04 Sv at maximum. When mixed into a mean net Atlantic Water (AW) inflow of 1.1 Sv with a salinity of 35.1, this freshwater addition decreases the salinity of the modified AW to 34.4 and 33.9 for the mean and maximum freshwater fluxes, respectively. Ice import may thus be important for the Barents Sea production of Arctic Ocean halocline water which has salinity of about 34.5. The changes in the ice melt the following summer due to ice import also affect the formation of dense water in the Barents Sea by changing stratification, altering the vertical mixing rates and affecting heat loss from the warm AW. The model results thus indicate that ice import from the Arctic has a great impact on water mass modification in the Barents Sea which in turn impacts the ventilation of the Arctic Ocean.     

Regional and global effects of southern ocean constraints in a global model

Global ocean circulation models do not usually take high-latitude processes into account in an adequate form due to a limited model domain or insufficient resolution. Without the processes in key areas contributing to the lower part of the global thermohaline circulation, the characteristics and flow of deep and bottom waters often remain unrealistic in these models. In this study, various sections of the Bremerhaven Regional Ice Ocean Simulation model results are combined with a global inverse model by using temperature, salinity, and velocity constraints for the Hamburg Large Scale Geostrophic ocean general circulation model. The differences between the global model with and without additional constraints from the regional model demonstrate that the Weddell Sea circulation exerts a significant influence on the course of the Antarctic Circumpolar Current with consequences for Southern Ocean water mass characteristics and the spreading of deep and bottom waters in the South Atlantic. The influence of the Ross Sea is found to be less important in terms of global influences. However, regional changes in the Pacific sector of the Southern Ocean are found to be of Ross Sea origin. The additional constraints change the hydrographic conditions of the global model in the vicinity of the Antarctic Circumpolar Current in such a way that transport values, e.g., in Drake Passage no longer need to be prescribed to obtain observed transports. These changes not only improve the path and transport of the Antarctic Circumpolar Current but affect the meso- and large-scale circulation. With a higher (lower) mean Drake Passage transport, the mean Weddell Gyre transport is lower (higher). Furthermore, an increase (decrease) in the Antarctic Circumpolar Current leads to a decrease (increase) of the circum-Australian flow, i.e., a decrease (increase) of the Indonesian Throughflow.     

Lateral tidal mixing in the Antarctic marginal seas

Tidal mixing plays an important role in the modification of dense water masses around the Antarctic continent. In addition to the vertical (diapycnal) mixing in the near-bottom layers, lateral mixing can also be of relevance in some areas. A numerical tide simulation shows that lateral tidal mixing is not uniformly distributed along the shelf break. In particular, strong mixing occurs all along the Ross Sea and Southern Weddell Sea shelf breaks, while other regions (e.g., the western Weddell Sea) are relatively quiet. The latter regions correspond surprisingly well to areas where indications for cross-shelf exchange of dense water masses have been found. The results suggest that lateral tidal mixing may account for the relatively small contribution of Ross Sea dense water masses to Antarctic Bottom Water.     

A dynamically consistent analysis of circulation and transports in the southwestern Weddell Sea

An inverse model is applied for the analysis of hydrographic and current meter data collected on the repeat WOCE section SR4 in the Weddell Sea in 1989–1992. The section crosses the Weddell Sea cyclonic gyre from Kapp Norvegia to the northern end of the Antarctic Peninsula. The concepts of geostrophy, conservation of planetary vorticity and hydrostatics are combined with advective balances of active and passive properties to provide a dynamically consistent circulation pattern. Our variational assimilation scheme allows the calculation of three-dimensional velocities in the section plane. Current speeds are small except along the coasts where they reach up to 12 cm/s. We diagnose a gyre transport of 34 Sverdrup which is associated with a poleward heat transport of 28 × 10¹² W corresponding to an average heat flux of 15 Wm^–2 in the Weddell Sea south of the transect. This exceeds the estimated local flux on the transect of 2 Wm^–2. As the transect is located mostly in the open ocean, we conclude that the shelf areas contribute significantly to the ocean-atmosphere exchange and are consequently key areas for the contribution of the Weddell Sea to global ocean ventilation. Conversion of water masses occuring south of the section transform 6.6 ± 1.1 Sv of the inflowing warm deep water into approximately equal amounts of Weddell Sea deep water and Weddell Sea bottom water. The volume transport of surface water equals in the in-and outflow. This means that almost all newly formed surface water is involved in the deep and bottom water formation. Comparison with the results obtained by pure velocity interpolation combined with a hydrographic data subset indicates major differences in the derived salt transports and the water mass conversion of the surface water. The differences can be explained by deviations in the structure of the upper ocean currents to which shelf areas contribute significantly. Additionally a rigorous variance analysis is performed. When only hydrographic data are used for the inversion both the gyre transport and the poleward heat transport are substantially lower. They amount to less than 40% of our best estimate while the standard deviations of both quantities are 6.5 Sv and 37 × 10¹² W, respectively. With the help of long-term current meter measurements these errors can be reduced to 2 Sv and 8 × 10¹² W. Our result underlines the importance of velocity data or equivalent information that helps to estimate the absolute velocities.     

Decadal-scale variations of water mass properties in the deep Weddell Sea

Data from cruises between 1989 and 2003 with FS Polarstern were used to construct section-wide potential temperature and salinity time series of the main water masses in the Weddell Gyre. In tandem with these CTD data, two time series between 1989 and 1995 are presented from moored instruments in the central Weddell Sea. The regional and methodological consistency of the dataset allows us to quantify variations which are not visible in less homogeneous datasets. The data reveal significant temperature and salinity variations of the Warm Deep Water and the Weddell Sea Bottom Water on a decadal time scale. The longest time series were obtained at the prime meridian. Here warming is observed in the Warm Deep Water from 1992 to 1998 followed by cooling. In the Weddell Sea proper, measurements of instruments moored in the Weddell Sea Bottom Water layer recorded a temperature increase over 6 years at a rate of 0.01 °C a^–1. After the mooring period, CTD casts in 1998 point to a weakening of the trend. The warming trend in the bottom water occurs over most of the Weddell Sea, as detected in the additional CTD surveys. The variations are close to the detection level in the voluminous Weddell Sea Deep Water. The initial warming trend of the Warm Deep Water is consistent with warming trends reported in literature of subsurface waters of the Antarctic Circumpolar Current. The reversal of the trend in the Weddell Sea seems to be related to variations of the atmospheric conditions which can affect both the intrusion of Circumpolar Deep Water from the north and the circulation of the Weddell Gyre. Because the Warm Deep Water is the major source water for the formation of deep and bottom water in the Weddell Sea, it is suggested that its increase in temperature and salinity is likely to at least partly cause the variations which were observed in the bottom water.Responsible Editor: Jörg-Olaf Wolff     

Variability of dense water formation in the Ross Sea

This paper presents results from a model study of the interannual variability of high salinity shelf water (HSSW) properties in the Ross Sea. Salinity and potential temperature of HSSW formed in the western Ross Sea show oscillatory behaviour at periods of 5–6 and 9 years superimposed on long-term fluctuations. While the shorter oscillations are induced by wind variability, variability on the scale of decades appears to be related to air temperature fluctuations. At least part of the strong decrease of HSSW salinities deduced from observations for the period 1963–2000 is shown to be an aliasing artefact due to an undersampling of the periodic signal. While sea ice formation is responsible for the yearly salinity increase that triggers the formation of HSSW, interannual variability of net freezing rates hardly affects changes in the properties of the resulting water mass. Instead, results from model experiments indicate that the interannual variability of dense water characteristics is predominantly controlled by variations in the shelf inflow through a sub-surface salinity and a deep temperature signal. The origin of the variability of inflow characteristics to the Ross Sea continental shelf can be traced into the Amundsen and Bellingshausen Seas. The temperature anomalies are induced at the continental shelf break in the western Bellingshausen Sea by fluctuations of the meridional transport of circumpolar deep water with the eastern cell of the Ross Gyre. In the Amundsen Sea, upwelling due to a persistently cyclonic wind field carries the signal into the surface mixed layer, leading to fluctuations of the vertical heat flux, anomalies of brine release near the sea ice edge, and consequently to a sub-surface salinity anomaly. With the westward flowing coastal current, both the sub-surface salinity and deep temperature signals are advected onto the Ross Sea continental shelf. Convection carries the signal of salinity variability into the deep ocean, where it interacts with modified circumpolar deep water upwelled onto the continental shelf as the second source water mass of HSSW. Sea ice formation on the Ross Sea continental shelf thus drives the vertical propagation of the signal rather than determining the signal itself.     

Response of the Greenland and Antarctic Ice Sheets to Multi-Millennial Greenhouse Warming in the Earth System Model of Intermediate Complexity LOVECLIM

Calculations were performed with the Earth system model of intermediate complexity LOVECLIM to study the response of the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets to sustained multi-millennial greenhouse warming. Use was made of fully dynamic 3D thermomechanical ice-sheet models bidirectionally coupled to an atmosphere and an ocean model. Two 3,000-year experiments were evaluated following forcing scenarios with atmospheric CO₂ concentration increased to two and four times the pre-industrial value, and held constant thereafter. In the high concentration scenario the model shows a sustained mean annual warming of up to 10°C in both polar regions. This leads to an almost complete disintegration of the Greenland ice sheet after 3,000 years, almost entirely caused by increased surface melting. Significant volume loss of the Antarctic ice sheet takes many centuries to initiate due to the thermal inertia of the Southern Ocean but is equivalent to more than 4 m of global sea-level rise by the end of simulation period. By that time, surface conditions along the East Antarctic ice sheet margin take on characteristics of the present-day Greenland ice sheet. West Antarctic ice shelves have thinned considerably from subshelf melting and grounding lines have retreated over distances of several 100 km, especially for the Ross ice shelf. In the low concentration scenario, corresponding to a local warming of 3?C4°C, polar ice-sheet melting proceeds at a much lower rate. For the first 1,200 years, the Antarctic ice sheet is even slightly larger than today on account of increased accumulation rates but contributes positively to sea-level rise after that. The Greenland ice sheet loses mass at a rate equivalent to 35 cm of global sea level rise during the first 1,000 years increasing to 150 cm during the last 1,000 years. For both scenarios, ice loss from the Antarctic ice sheet is still accelerating after 3,000 years despite a constant greenhouse gas forcing after the first 70?C140 years of the simulation.     

The oceanic tides in the South Atlantic Ocean

The finite element ocean tide model of Le Provost and Vincent (1986) has been applied to the simulation of the M₂ and K₁ components over the South Atlantic Ocean. The discretisation of the domain, of the order of 200 km over the deep ocean, is refined down to 15 km along the coasts, such refinement enables wave propagation and damping over the continental shelves to be correctly solved. The marine boundary conditions, from Dakar to Natal, through the Drake passage and from South Africa to Antarctica, are deduced from in situ data and from Schwiderski’s solution and then optimised following a procedure previously developed by the authors. The solutions presented are in very good agreement with in situ data: the root mean square deviations from a standard subset of 13 pelagic stations are 1.4 cm for M₂ and 0.45 cm for K₁, which is significantly better overall than solutions published to date in the literature. Zooms of the M₂ solution are presented for the Falkland Archipelago, the Weddell Sea and the Patagonian Shelf. The first zoom allows detailing of the tidal structure around the Falklands and its interpretation in terms of a stationary trapped Kelvin wave system. The second zoom, over the Weddell Sea, reveals for the first time what must be the tidal signal under the permanent ice shelf and gives a solution over that sea which is generally in agreement with observations. The third zoom is over the complex Patagonian Shelf. This zoom illustrates the ability of the model to simulate the tides, even over this area, with a surprising level of realism, following purely hydrodynamic modelling procedures, within a global ocean tide model. Maps of maximum associated tidal currents are also given, as a first illustration of a by-product of these simulations.     

Diatom valve distribution and sedimentary fatty acid composition in Larsen Bay, Eastern Antarctica Peninsula

During austral summer 2006-2007, five sediment cores were recovered from the Eastern Antarctic Peninsula (EAP) continental shelf. Microscopic observations and sediment fatty acid (FA) composition analyses were carried out to investigate whether the drastic changes at the sea surface in EAP may be reflected in the sedimentary record. A sharp decrease in the number of diatom valves was observed below 2 cm depth. This difference between the upper 2 cm of sediment and the deeper part of the sediment column was attributed to the drastic change in the upper water column conditions after the collapse of the ice shelves, which allowed the arrival of phytoplankton debris and fresh organic matter to the sea floor in EAP. The presence of bacterial-, zooplankton- and detrital-related FA throughout EAP cores suggests that there has been an input of older and more refractory organic matter into the region, presumably by lateral transport before the Larsen ice shelves disintegration.     

Dense water formation in the Gulf of Lions shelf: Impact of atmospheric interannual variability and climate change

Dense water formed over the continental shelf and cascading down the slope is responsible for shelf-slope exchanges in many parts of the world ocean, and transports large amounts of sediment and organic matter into the deep ocean. Here we perform numerical modeling experiments to investigate the impact of atmospheric interannual variability and climate change on dense water formation over the Gulf of Lions shelf, in the Northwestern Mediterranean Sea. Results obtained for a 140 years eddy-permitting simulation (1960–2100) performed over the whole Mediterranean Sea under IPCC A2 scenario forcings are used to force a regional eddy-resolving model of the Northwestern Mediterranean Sea.     

Projecting future sea level

Through the use of fossil fuels as an energy source, mankind is slowly changing the constitution of the atmosphere. The emission of CO₂ and other greenhouse gases changes the radiative properties of the earth/atmosphere system, and as a result climate is expected to become warmer. As a starting point for the sea-level rise scenario discussed here it is assumed that the globally-averaged increase of surface air temperatures will amount to 2 to 4°C in the second half of the next century (i.e. around 2085 AD). One of the consequences of this warming is an accelerated rise in sea level, caused by thermal expansion of ocean water and further retreat of mountain glaciers. The Greenland Ice Sheet will also decrease in size, but on the other hand, Antarctica is expected to grow slightly due to increased snowfall. Taken together, the projection for future sea level presented here suggest that by 2085 AD, global sea-level stand will be 28–66 cm higher than the present level, which implies a rate of sea-level rise of about 2 to 4 times that observed during the last 100 yr. Our scenario does not include a contribution resulting from the possible collapse of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet. If this collapse is indeed likely to occur after the major peripheral ice shelves have thinned considerably, the effects on sea level will be small in the coming 100 yr. First, the oceans surrounding Antarctica must have warmed sufficiently to reduce the winter sea-ice extent to allow circumpolar deep water to penetrate into the sub-shelf cavities, thus increasing basal melt rates on the ice shelves. Of course, on longer time scales, West Antarctica could become the major contributor to rising sea level.     

Detection of crevasses over polar ice shelves using Satellite Laser Altimeter

Ice shelf breakups account for most mass loss from the Antarctic Ice Sheet as the consequence of the propagation of crevasses(or rift)in response to stress.Thus there is a pressing need for detecting crevasses’location and depth,to understand the mechanism of calving processes.This paper presents a method of crevasse detection using the ICESat-1/GLAS data.A case study was taken at the Amery Ice Shelf of Antarctica to verify the accuracy of geo-location and depth of crevasses detected.Moreover,based on the limited crevasse points,we developed a method to detect the peak stress points which can be used to track the location of the crack tips and to identify the possible high-risk area where an ice shelf begins to break up.The spatial and temporal distribution of crevasse depth and the spatial distribution of peak stress points of the Amery Ice Shelf were analyzed through 132 tracks in 16 campaign periods of ICESat-1/GLAS between 2003 and 2008.The results showed that the depth of the detected crevasse points ranged from 2 to 31.7 m,which were above the sea level;the crevasse that advected downstream to the front edge of an ice shelf has little possibility to directly result in breakups because the crevasse depth did not show any increasing trend over time;the local stress concentration is distributed mainly in the suture zones on the ice shelves.     

Variability in the annual cycle of vertical particulate organic carbon export on Arctic shelves: Contrasting the Laptev Sea,Northern Baffin Bay and the Beaufort Sea

The ongoing regression of sea ice cover is expected to significantly affect the fate of organic carbon over the Arctic continental shelves. Long-term moored sediment traps were deployed in 2005–2006 in the Beaufort Sea, Northern Baffin Bay and the Laptev Sea to compare the annual variability of POC fluxes and to evaluate the factors regulating the annual cycle of carbon export over these continental shelves. Annual POC fluxes at 200 m ranged from 1.6 to 5.9 g C m⁻² yr⁻¹ with the highest export in Northern Baffin Bay and the lowest export over the Mackenzie Shelf in the Beaufort Sea. Each annual cycle exhibited an increase in POC export a few weeks before, during, or immediately following sea ice melt, but showed different patterns over the remainder of the cycle. Enhanced primary production, discharge of the Lena River, and resuspension events contributed to periods of elevated POC export over the Laptev Sea slope. High POC fluxes in Northern Baffin Bay reflected periods of elevated primary production in the North Water polynya. In the Beaufort Sea sediment resuspension contributed to most of the large export events. Our results suggest that the outer shelf of the Laptev Sea will likely sustain the largest increase in POC export in the next few years due to the large reduction in ice cover and the possible increase in the Lena River discharge. The large differences in forcing among the regions investigated reinforce the importance of monitoring POC fluxes in the different oceanographic regimes that characterize the Arctic shelves to assess the response of the Arctic Ocean carbon cycle to interannual variability and climate change.