Spatial contribution of one-day precipitations variability to rainy days and rainfall amounts in Iran

Rainfalls with short persistency are the tangible characteristics of arid and semiarid regions such as Iran. Iran is an arid and semiarid region with dramatic tempo-spatial changes of rainfall. In this regard, the short persistency of rainfall is approximately observed from 1 to 7 days in whole parts, while the greater ones are only separated in eastern parts of Iran. According to the results, the rainfall persistency is ranged from 1 to 45 days, but the maximum amount and rainy days are generated by rainfalls with short persistency. So, the rainfall events with long persistency are considered as an extreme event with extreme variability. One-day precipitations generate the maximum rainy days and rainfall amounts, especially in eastern parts of Iran. Decrease in the one-day precipitations contribution to eastern parts may indicate to decrease in regional precipitation. However, decrease in contribution in western parts may indicate to increased amounts of rainfall at other persistency rates. Our results revealed that the contribution of the one-day precipitation to general rainfall has reductive trends in almost 17.5 % of the whole Iran. The most integrated and significant reductive trend of one-day precipitation contribution to rainfall spreads northeastern and eastern parts of Iran. However, in the western parts of Iran, decreasing one-day precipitation contribution to rainy days affects to increase in the diurnal rainfall. The mentioned variability can be considered as the climate change signals in respect of one-day precipitation.     

Spatial variability and rainfall characteristics of Kerala

Geographical regions of covariability in precipitation over the Kerala state are exposed using factor analysis. The results suggest that Kerala can be divided into three unique rainfall regions, each region having a similar covariance structure of annual rainfall. Stations north of 10‡N (north Kerala) fall into one group and they receive more rainfall than stations south of 10‡N (south Kerala). Group I stations receive more than 65% of the annual rainfall during the south-west monsoon period, whereas stations falling in Group II receive 25–30% of annual rainfall during the pre-monsoon and the north-east monsoon periods. The meteorology of Kerala is profoundly influenced by its orographical features, however it is difficult to make out a direct relationship between elevation and rainfall. Local features of the state as reflected in the rainfall distribution are also clearly brought out by the study.     

Spatial variability analysis of precipitation in northwest Iran

The spatial variability of precipitation was investigated in the northwestern corner of Iran using data collected at 24 synoptic stations from 1986 to 2015. Principal component analysis (PCA) and cluster analysis (CA) were used to regionalize precipitation in the study area. Eleven precipitation variables were averaged and arranged as an input matrix for the R-mode PCA to identify the precipitation patterns. Results suggest that the study area can be divided into four spatially homogeneous sub-zones. In addition, the spatial patterns of annual precipitation were identified by applying the T-mode PCA and CA to the annual precipitation data. The delineated spatial patterns revealed three distinct sub-regions. The resultant maps were compared with the spatial distribution of the rotated principal components (PCs). Results pointed out that the delineated clusters are characterized by different precipitation variability; and using different precipitation parameters can lead to different spatial patterns of precipitation over northwest Iran.     

Spatial and temporal trends of dust storms across desert regions of Iran

Dust storms are among natural and anthropogenic hazards for socioeconomic resources, especially in desert regions. In recent years, dust storms have become a serious problem, especially in desert regions of Iran. This study investigates temporal and spatial variation of dust storm frequency in desert regions of Iran. The number of dusty days (NDD) are collected from 22 stations across the region. The statistical analysis of NDD time series is carried out to show both spatial and seasonal pattern of dust storm occurrence in the region. The regional map of statistical characteristics indicates a north to south increasing dust storm frequency. The spatial map also reveals higher year-to-year variation in south eastern Iran. The seasonality of NDD shows the highest frequency for summer followed by the spring and autumn seasons. The popular Mann–Kendall and the bootstrap MK test to consider serial correlation are then applied for Trend assessment. Results showed both negative (across the north and northwestern regions) and positive trend (across south and south eastern regions) in the annual and seasonal NDD time series. This north-to-south gradient in the spatial and temporal frequency NDD may arise from harsh dry and gusty winds as well as intense land use change in the south eastern territories of Iran. However, more careful and detailed studies are required to connect environmental conditions to change in NDD frequency.     

Multiple time scales in rainfall variability

Monthly rainfall data averaged over a selected number of stations in peninsular Malaysia with a long record was subjected to singular spectrum analysis to determine the different modes of fluctuations in the rainfall. The analysis highlights the presence of fluctuations in the QBO time scale to a very long term time scale of 18–5 years which is possibly linked to lunar tidal forcing. There is also evidence of the Malaysian rainfall responding to El-Nino Southern Oscillation. An oscillation with a 7 to 10 year cycle is also evident. The annual cycle as a regular periodic oscillation is well established by the SSA.     

Spatial and temporal variability of rainfall: case of Bizerte-Ichkeul Basin (Northern Tunisia)

This study examines spatial and temporal variability of rainfall in Bizerte-Ichkeul Watershed. The basin, located in the extreme north of Tunisia, covers an area of 3084 km². Thirteen rainfall stations, with continuous monthly precipitation records over the period (1970–2011), were considered in the analysis. Two methods were used. In the first, the dimensionless standardized precipitation ratio is applied to examine precipitation temporal variation. The second method is represented by continuous wavelet analysis for the precipitation spatial analysis and the identification of the origin of its variability. The study of temporal variability of annual rainfall showed severe persistent and recurrent drought episodes over the period (1977–2001). Wavelet analysis resulted in detecting the modes and origins of precipitation variability. Three energy bands were clearly identified: (1, 2–4, and 4–8 years) for the entire watershed. The visualization of the power distribution showed that the observed modes of variability are different in their power distributions from one station to another. The approach adopted allowed the identification of two groups with the same precipitation frequency and temporal variation. These groups were defined according to the difference in occurrence of the frequency band for each station.     

Analysis of rainfall and temperature time series to detect long-term climatic trends and variability over semi-arid Botswana

Arid and semi-arid environments have been identified with locations prone to impacts of climate variability and change. Investigating long-term trends is one way of tracing climate change impacts. This study investigates variability through annual and seasonal meteorological time series. Possible inhomogeneities and years of intervention are analysed using four absolute homogeneity tests. Trends in the climatic variables were determined using Mann–Kendall and Sen’s Slope estimator statistics. Association of El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) with local climate is also investigated through multivariate analysis. Results from the study show that rainfall time series are fully homogeneous with 78.6 and 50% of the stations for maximum and minimum temperature, respectively, showing homogeneity. Trends also indicate a general decrease of 5.8, 7.4 and 18.1% in annual, summer and winter rainfall, respectively. Warming trends are observed in annual and winter temperature at 0.3 and 1.5% for maximum temperature and 1.7 and 6.5% for minimum temperature, respectively. Rainfall reported a positive correlation with Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) and at the same time negative association with Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs). Strong relationships between SSTs and maximum temperature are observed during the El Niño and La Niña years. These study findings could facilitate planning and management of agricultural and water resources in Botswana.     

Recent rainfall and runoff variability in central Argentina

Laguna Mar Chiquita, a closed, shallow, hypersaline lake in central Argentina (∼30–31°S, 62–63°W), is a sensitive marker of high- and low-frequency changes in regional hydrology and, therefore, of climatic changes at middle latitudes in southeastern South America. Its drainage basin and neighboring areas, including the Sierras Pampeanas de Córdoba, and Sierra del Aconquija (27–33°S, 62–66°W), are under the influence of diverse climate drivers that determine a complex behavior in rainfall and runoff dynamics. Statistical (Mann–Kendall and seasonal Kendall trend tests) and spectral analyses (Fourier and wavelet transform) of the available data show that: (a) there is significant evidence that rainfall has increased in the region since the 2nd half of the 20th century; (b) concurrently, runoff has also increased, particularly in the northern tributaries (north of 31°S) of Mar Chiquita; (c) northern rainfall and discharge records mostly exhibit an apparent near-decadal (also near-bidecadal in runoff) climatic signature; and d) the ENSO influence on rainfall appears faint but discernible in the southern (south of ∼31°S) portion.     

Monsoon rainfall and its variability in Godavari river basin

Rainfall variability over a river basin has greater impact on the water resource in that basin. With this in view, the variability of the monsoon rainfall over the Godavari river basin has been studied on different time scales. As expected, the monsoon rainfall in Godavari basin is more variable (17%) than the all-India monsoon rainfall (11%) during the period of study (1951–90). Similarly, inter-annual variability of the monsoon rainfall on smaller time scales is found to be still higher and increases while going on from seasonal to daily scales. An interesting observation is that the intra-seasonal variability of the monsoon rainfall has a significant negative relationship (CC= −0.53) with the total seasonal rainfall in the basin.     

Interannual variability of summer monsoon rainfall over Myanmar

Observed summer (May–October) rainfall in Myanmar for the period 1981–2010 was used to investigate the interannual variability of summer monsoon rainfall over Myanmar. Empirical orthogonal function, the sequential Mann-Kendall test, power spectrum analysis, and singular value decomposition (SVD) were deployed in the study. Results from spectral analysis showed that the variability of rainfall over Myanmar exhibits a 2- to 6-year cycle. An abrupt change in rainfall over the country was noted in 1992. There was a notable increasing rainfall trend from 1989. After the sudden change, the mean rainfall increased by 36.1 mm, compared with the mean rainfall before the sudden change, and was associated with a rise in temperature of about 0.2 °C. An increase in heavy rainfall days was observed from the early 1990s to 2010. IOD and ENSO play an important role in the interannual variability of the summer rainfall over Myanmar. The covariability between rainfall over Myanmar and Indian Ocean SST generally suggests that a positive IOD mode is associated with suppressed rainfall in the central and northern parts of Myanmar. During a negative IOD mode, nearly the whole Myanmar experiences enhanced rainfall, which is associated with devastating socioeconomic impacts. The covariability between the rainfall over Myanmar and the sea surface temperature in the Pacific Ocean in the first and second SVD modes was dominated by warming in the east and central Pacific—an El Niño-like pattern—resulting in dry conditions in central Myanmar.     

Analyzing rainfall seasonality and trends in the North Maharashtra region

The North Maharashtra region comprises three districts, namely Jalgaon, Dhule, and Nandurbar. The region comprises 25 talukas, which are mostly covered by agricultural fields. Seasonality and trend analysis of rainfall over North Maharashtra region from 1901 to 2016 is conducted in the present work. The data were analyzed on the basis of season, i.e. winter, pre-monsoon, monsoon, and post monsoon. For trend detection, the Sen’s slope estimator and the Mann–Kendall test are used. The largest negative rainfall trends are found in the talukas Nandurbar and Jamner. In Akkalkuwa, the strongest positive trend is found. The rainfall trends in the recent years are discussed in the present work.     

Spatial variability of climatic hazards in Bangladesh

Natural Hazards - Climate change is evident with the extreme climatic indices changing all over the world. Bangladesh is one of the most vulnerable countries to climate change. The patterns of...     

Interannual and long-term variability of Indian summer monsoon rainfall

Analysis of summer monsoon (June to September) rainfall series of 29 subdivisions based on a fixed number of raingauges (306 stations) has been made for the 108-year period 1871–1978 for interannual and long-term variability of the rainfall. Statistical tests show that the rainfall series of 29 sub-divisions are homogeneous, Gaussian-distributed and do not contain any persistence. The highest and the lowest normal rainfall of 284 and 26 cm are observed over coastal Karnataka and west Rajasthan sub-divisions respectively. The interannual variability (range) varies over different sub-divisions, the lowest being 55 and the highest 231% of the normal rainfall, for south Assam and Saurashtra and Kutch sub-divisions respectively. High spatial coherency is observed between neighbouring sub-divisions; northeast region and northern west and peninsular Indian sub-divisions show oppositic correlation tendency. Significant change in mean rainfall of six sub-divisions is noticed. Correlogram and spectrum analysis show the presence of 14-year and QBO cycles in a few sub-divisional rainfall series.     

Application of principal component analysis to understand variability of rainfall

The usefulness of principal component analysis for understanding the temporal variability of monsoon rainfall is studied. Monthly rainfall data of Karnataka, spread on 50 stations for a period of 82 years have been analysed for interseasonal and interannual variabilities. A subset of the above data comprising 10 stations from the coherent west zone of Karnataka has also been investigated to bring out statistically significant interannual signals in the southwest monsoon rainfall. Conditional probabilities are proposed for a few above normal/below normal transitions. A sample prediction exercise for June–July using such a transition probability has been found to be successful.     

地下水污染场地水质空间相关性分析

地下水污染场地的监控需要依据水文地质条件、地下水流场和溶质运移特征,利用水化学的示踪作用开展空间分析,以识别地下水和溶质运移特征。该方法具有简易和经济的优点。以台湾苗栗县某化工污染场地为例,通过对地下水中多种离子浓度的空间等值线分析及对比,判断污染物的来源和分布范围。采用离子浓度的统计特征值P95、P75、P50、P25构成的等值线,作为判断离子空间分布特征的依据,并形成离子之间对比的统一标准。所有离子都采用浓度P95等值线包围的区域作为其污染源,其它三种等值线表示可能出现的污染物扩散范围。在此基础上通过对比发现10种离子的污染源集中出现在场地一个范围内,并形成一个污染带,表明它们的来源具有密切的联系。10种离子P75等值线划出的污染物分布范围同样比较集中,但几乎都分布在污染带的南部,显示离子的迁移方向和迁移距离是一致的。根据离子空间分布的相似性将其分为三组,空间分布相似性高的离子组同时出现在一个区域的机会更多。通过多种水化学成分识别地下水流场和溶质运移特征,提高了结论的可信度,为污染物监控提供参考。     

Seasonal variability of soil phosphate stable oxygen isotopes in rainfall manipulation experiments

Phosphorus (P) availability limits productivity in many ecosystems worldwide. As a result, improved understanding of P cycling through soil and plants is much desirable. The use of the oxygen isotopes associated to phosphate can be used to study the cycle of P in terrestrial systems. However, changes with time in the oxygen isotopes associated to available P have not yet been evaluated under field conditions. Here we present the variations in available-P oxygen isotopes, based on resin extractions, in a semi-arid site that included plots in which the amount of rainfall reaching the soil was modified. In addition, the oxygen isotopes in the less dynamic fraction which is extractable by HCl, were also measured. The δ¹⁸O of the HCl-extractable phosphate shows no seasonal pattern and corresponds to the average value of the available phosphate of 16.5‰. This value is in the expected range for equilibration with soil water at the prevailing temperatures in the site. The δ¹⁸O values of resin-extractable P showed a range of 14.5-19.1‰ (SMOW), and evidence of seasonal variability, as well as variability induced by rainfall manipulation experiments. We present a framework for analyzing the isotopic ratios in soil phosphate and explain the variability as mainly driven by phosphate equilibration with soil water, and by the isotopic effects associated with extracellular mineralization. Additional isotopic effects result from fractionation in uptake, and the input to the soil of phosphate equilibrated in leaves. These results suggest that the δ¹⁸O of resin-extractable P is an interesting marker for the rate of biological P transformations in soil systems.     

Assessing the state of homogeneity,variability and trends in the rainfall time series from 1969 to 2017 and its significance for groundwater in north-east India

Natural Hazards - Rainfall is the key climatic variable, on which water availability, food security and livelihood depend, especially in an agrarian society like the northeast region of India. It...