基于多代理模型的城市土地利用博弈模拟

以美国达拉斯北部地区为例,通过建立基于多代理的人类系统和自然系统的耦合互动模型,研究不同土地管理策略的有效性.自然系统包含土地覆盖变化、流域水文动力学和野生动物栖息地生态系统.人类系统包括土地利益相关者(地主、屋主、开发商、政府)的影响土地利用变化价值观.系统强调自然对土地利用决策的反馈机制,不同类型代理相对空间位置的重要作用,以及同一类别中不同类型代理在特定情形下的相互转化.研究进行了两类模拟,一是模拟初始化的若干情景,包括不同类型地主和户主的分布、不同类型政府以及经济模型的假定;二是模拟主动式土地政策的实施效果.模拟结果表明,当政府购置保留地时考虑土地拥有者的价值观,较之单纯基于机会或生态因素更能导致有效的增长管理策略.     

碳汇管理政策影响分析模型与应用

应用数理统计方法构建评价碳汇管理政策影响分析模型,模拟农田碳汇管理政策的影响。山东省冬小麦种植的案例研究表明,在常规耕作、秸秆还田和休耕3种政策措施两两组合构成的3种情景下,农田碳汇管理政策的绩效及农户作物种植行为存在较大差异。基于利益最大化的基本经济学假设,研究政府在采用不同碳汇管理政策措施的背景下,农民选择不同碳汇管理措施的机会成本及收益变化,模拟农民调整作物种植行为的决策过程。研究表明,利用以县(市、区)为基本单元的农业生产数据和农产品价格、农作物播种面积等数据,可以构建农田碳汇管理政策影响分析模型,模拟不同碳汇管理政策下农民决策行为,推算出采用各种碳汇管理措施下作物种植面积的变化,从而为评价区域农田碳汇管理政策的影响提供依据。     

China’s food security situation and key questions in the new era: A perspective of farmland protection

As the world’s largest developing country, the ability of China’s agricultural resource utilization to effectively support the current and future food security goals has been affected by a variety of factors (e.g., transformed supply channels, tightening international situation and frequent emergencies) in recent years and has attracted extensive attention from the academic community subject to multiple factors. This study uses literature review, statistical analysis, and spatial analysis methods to systematically explore China’s food security situation in the context of farmland resource constraints. It is found that the demand-side pressures such as demographic changes, social class differentiation, and dietary structure adjustments derived from economic growth and rapid urbanization have placed extremely high expectations on food supply. However, the quantitative restrictions, utilization ways, and health risks of farmland resources on the supply side constitute a huge hidden concern that affects the stability of food production. Although China’s farmland protection system is undergoing a transition from focusing on quantity management to sustainable use, the matching and coordinating demand pressure and supply capacity for food security is unbalanced. Therefore, facing uncertain future development scenarios, policymakers should focus on building a resilient space for China’s farmland protection to withstand the interference of major emergencies. The existing farmland protection space policy can be integrated by establishing a national farmland strategic reserve system (based on resilient space), and further development of targeted use control measures for zoning, grading, and classification will help realize sustainable China’s farmland resources use.     

区域水环境经济系统DSS的设计

从区域水环境与经济协调发展出发,建立了区域水环境的决策支持系统。介绍了区域水环境经济系统决策支持系统的设计原则、系统结构、系统组成及系统功能。系统由数据库、模型库及其管理系统三部分组成,具有预测、优化、模拟和管理等功能。模型库包括宏观经济模型、环境经济多目标优化模型、需水模型、水环境容量模型和水环境分析模型等5个基本模型。在求解水环境经济多目标优化模型时,使用了约束法,把多目标化为单目标进行求解。在决策过程中,使用逐步法,在迭代过程中输入经验与偏好获取满意的决策信息     

中部大城市流动人口的回流意愿及其影响因素——以武汉市为例

人口回流是新世纪中国人口流动的最新趋势之一,亟待对其特征与机制开展深入研究。本文以武汉为例,采用描述性统计和二元Logistic回归方法,揭示中部地区大城市省内与省际流动人口的回流意愿及其影响因素。研究发现：① 流动人口的回流意愿总体偏低,省内流动人口低于省际流动人口。② 性别、教育、家庭结构、家庭年收入及家庭经济状况满意度等内源因素驱动流动人口回流,流动人口在流入地的社会信任、身份认同等外源因素则对回流有抑制作用。③ 省内流动人口回流受个体、地区因素影响较大,省际流动人口回流更易受家庭、社会因素影响。因此,新型城镇化建设要重视不同流动人口回流机制的差异性。建议通过精准施策,一方面增强省际流动人口定居意愿,一方面促进省内流动人口就近城镇化。     

SEQUENTIAL ASPECTS OF RESIDENTIAL SEARCH AND SELECTION

Tversky's "elimination by aspects'' approach is used as a decision-making model in this survey of the residential choice process of a sample of intraurban migrants. Rather than attempting to examine the covert cognitive operations described in the elimination-by-aspects model, this research seeks to describe overt residential search and selection behaviors which derive from Tversky's approach. The sequence in which information on criterion variables is acquired indicates a general two-stage process for the sample of residential migrants. Residential decision makers exhibit differential use of information sources on specific variables and appear to consult information sources in a selective manner. The sequence in which the information sources are utilized exhibits a diverse pattern for the sample of all intraurban migrants. Disaggregating the sample by significant social groupings reveals several information source strategies for certain groups, along with considerable individual diversity in residential decision making.     

基于CR-BDI模型的农户作物种植行为模拟——以陕西省米脂县姜兴庄为例

运用模拟平台模拟农户土地利用行为,对揭示农户土地利用变化机制和调整土地利用决策具有重要意义。本文选择生态脆弱区一乡一业、一村一品典型村陕西省米脂县姜兴庄为例,以信念—愿望—意图模型(BDI)为基础,构建有限理性能力与资源(CR-BDI)模型。基于NetLogo平台对CR-BDI模型和传统BDI模型的模拟情况进行对比分析,结果表明：①CR-BDI模型更适于微观尺度农户土地利用决策研究。2014年该模型面积失误率为6.78%,比传统BDI模型低8.48%,空间准确率比传统BDI模型高10.10%,2015年CR-BDI模型和传统BDI模型的整体空间正确率分别为78.8%和69.2%;②CR指数有利于体现农户的有限理性,与实际种植决策较为符合;③利用NetLogo平台有利于直观再现农户土地利用行为,揭示土地利用变化的微观机理,可作为研究土地利用变化互动机理的良好平台。     

Book Review

In this paper, we examine the applicability of spatial optimization as a generative modelling technique for sustainable land‐use allocation. Specifically, we test whether spatial optimization can be used to generate a number of compromise spatial alternatives that are both feasible and different from each other. We present a new spatial multiobjective optimization model, which encourages efficient utilization of urban space through infill development, compatibility of adjacent land uses, and defensible redevelopment. The model uses a density‐based design constraint developed by the authors. The constraint imposes a predefined level of consistent neighbourhood development to promote contiguity and compactness of urban areas. First, the model is tested on a hypothetical example. Further, we demonstrate a real‐world application of the model to land‐use planning in Chelan, a small environmental amenity town in the north‐central region of the State of Washington, USA. The results indicate that spatial optimization is a promising method for generating land‐use alternatives for further consideration in spatial decision‐making.     

Taxonomy for surveying the use and value of geographical information!

Abstract

Understanding the use and value of geographical information in decision making has been identified as crucial to the further development of geographical information systems and related spatial analysis techniques. Research into the use of geographical information will be through surveys and case studies. A taxonomy for investigating the use of geographical information and its associated value is needed to structure the surveys and case studies. This paper presents an initial attempt at such a taxonomy, intended to support continuing research into the use and value of geographical information. The survey methodology to be supported will be mostly telephone and/or mail questionnaires, and this has influenced the structure of the taxonomy. The goal of this work is to create a taxonomy suitable for use in surveys that will enhance the understanding of the use and value of geographical information in decision making.     

Urban Sustainability Indicators: how do Australian city decision makers perceive and use global reporting standards?

The introduction in 2014 of the first globally standardised sustainability metric for cities, ISO 37120, transformed the concept of scalability for sustainable city indicators. Our study uses original research involving producers and consumers of urban sustainability indicators (USIs), including ISO 37120, to review the current use of sustainability indicators (SIs) in Sydney and ascertain the use-value of internationally standardised USIs as perceived by professionals in the field. Our findings show that managers of cities use SIs in a variety of ways, yet links between SIs and organisational decision making are often weak. The cost of adaptation to a new indicator set may be prohibitive, especially for smaller city governments. Larger cities are seen to benefit more from international exposure and comparison. Highlighting ISO 37120 should be valued for the opportunity it presents for comparative learning regarding the nature of a sustainable city rather than its benchmarking potential. This article recommends that the process of achieving a sustainable city should be informed by ‘strong’ rather than ‘weak’ sustainability; in this regard ISO 37120 has potential for refinement. Further research is needed into determining aspects of city comparability and methods for linking USI data to government decision making in order to achieve sustainability outcomes.     

乌兹别克斯坦可再生能源现状及中乌合作建议

乌兹别克斯坦是位于中亚腹地的“双内陆国”,是古代丝绸之路沿线的重要国家之一。针对“一带一路”倡议实施框架内中国与乌兹别克斯坦在可再生能源领域合作的需要,利用文献、数据等分析法,从太阳能、水能、风能、地热能、沼气能等可再生能源的发展现状、国家发展规划、优惠激励措施和可再生能源领域的最新投资项目等角度,对乌兹别克斯坦可再生能源发展总体情况和需求进行了分析。结果表明：乌兹别克斯坦拥有良好的可再生资源条件,未来可再生能源利用比例也将逐渐提高。近年来,乌兹别克斯坦政府高度重视可再生能源发展,接连出台有关政策,大力推进可再生能源发电项目建设,以期实现能源多样化。中乌可再生能源利用领域合作前景广阔,双方在人才、技术、资金、设备等方面合作空间巨大,在提高可再生能源利用效率、发展绿色经济和开展低碳能源合作领域将大有作为。     

中国城市网络的核心-边缘结构演化研究——基于证券服务联系的视角

核心-边缘结构的研究将加深对城市网络演化规律的理解。基于证券服务联系视角,解析了2005—2019年中国城市网络的核心-边缘结构演化特征及其影响因素。结果表明：（1） 中国城市网络核心区块的规模稳步扩张,同时城市核心度的分布趋于分散,推动着城市网络向多中心格局发展;城市网络的核心区块主要由城市群的核心城市组成,城市网络连通度的分布收敛于Zipf法则,预示着中国城市网络将呈现持续的等级结构特征。（2） 政治权力、市场潜力、知识资本、航空联系和经济开放决定了证券企业获取有价值信息流的能力,进而构成了中国城市网络核心-边缘结构生长发育的基础;城市的网络地位在很大程度上源于“场所空间”中的影响力,这意味着城市网络的发展可能会加剧中国城市经济的发展差距。     

滨水区工业遗产保护与城市记忆延续研究——以杭州运河拱宸桥西工业遗产为例

工业遗产是社会工业文化的重要表征,承载着城市近现代化发展过程中的文化历史景观和记忆,为城市保留和建构了社会公共记忆的空间与素材。产业结构的转型和文脉保护意识的觉醒,使得滨水区遗存和集聚的码头、仓库、工厂成为近现代工业遗产。以杭州运河拱宸桥西工业遗产的博物馆化发展模式为案例,重点解析和梳理了滨水区工业遗产通过形态保护全面化、功能定位平民化、遗产展示活态化、运作机制创新化和展陈手法数字化等措施,有效延续城市记忆。最后,将杭州运河工业遗产的城市记忆延续归纳为“双层模式”,并访谈了多利益主体对其的评价,以期为未来类似研究提供一个比较参考。     

Study on the synergy between intra-urban resident’s migration and job change in Beijing

People’s decisions of residential mobility in housing market and decisions of job change in labor market play an essential role in the formation and dynamics of urban spatial structure. This paper investigates the relationship between residential relocation and job change and its heterogeneity using a large-scale survey of residential living satisfaction and preferences in Beijing. Several conclusions are drawn as follows: 1) People’s decisions of residential mobility are significantly positively correlated with their decisions of job change, indicating that these two-dimensional decisions are in fact a correlated decision process rather than two independent decision processes. 2) There is heterogeneity in the correlated decisions of residential mobility and job change. More specifically, the interrelationship between the decisions of residential mobility and job change among people without Beijing hukou, renters and single-worker households is more intensive than people with Beijing hukou, homeowners and multi-worker households. In addition, there is heterogeneity in the determinants of residential relocation and job change between groups with different types of housing tenure, household registration status and family employment structure. 3) For renters, commuting time can significantly increase the probability of residential relocation, which indicates that residents of different socioeconomic attributes have very different responses to commuting time costs.     

Assessing fitness for use: the expected value of spatial data sets

This paper proposes and illustrates a decision analytical approach to compare the value of alternative spatial data sets. In contrast to other work addressing value of information, its focus is on value of control. This is a useful concept when choosing the best data set for decision making under uncertainty due to error in the reported data. Application of the concept requires probabilistic accuracy measures and a loss function representing the cost of incorrect judgement about some target property. This is illustrated by an assessment of the suitability of two digital elevation models (DEMs) for determining the volume of sand required for building a container port. To demonstrate flexibility of the approach, accuracy assessment was based on both a random and a systematic sample of error data, using design-based estimation and model-based prediction, that is geostatistics. Analysis results included the expected loss for each combination of DEM and sampling strategy. These indicated that both DEMs were equally suitable for the intended use. Operational practicability of the method is highly dependent on the willingness of database producers to give access to sample information similar to the quick looks provided to potential users of remote sensing imagery.     

Facilitating Public Involvement in Strategic Planning for Wildland Fire Management∗

Wildland fire creates a complex relationship between federal agencies and public stakeholders. Questions surrounding the public's role in federal wildland fire management point to broader questions about the relationships among scientists, policymakers, federal agencies, and the public. In this article we report on a project to provide information about the key components of federal policies that govern wildland fire management. The goal is to enhance the decision support capabilities of a geographic information system (GIS)-based fire risk model and the capacity of users to interpret the outputs of the model from a fire policy perspective. We conclude by making recommendations for how this and other such tools might be refined to improve and expand policy interactions among government land and resource management agencies, scientists, and the public.     

A MaxEnt Model for Mineral Prospectivity Mapping

Mineral prospectivity mapping is an important preliminary step for mineral resource exploration. It has been widely applied to distinguish areas of high potential to host mineral deposits and to minimize the financial risks associated with decision making in mineral industry. In the present study, a maximum entropy (MaxEnt) model was applied to investigate its potential for mineral prospectivity analysis. A case study from the Nanling tungsten polymetallic metallogenic belt, South China, was used to evaluate its performance. In order to deal with model over-fitting, varying levels of β _j -regularization were set to determine suitable β value based on response curves and receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves, as well as via visual inspections of prospectivity maps. The area under the ROC curve (AUC = 0.863) suggests good performance of the MaxEnt model under the condition of balancing model complexity and generality. The relative importance of ore-controlling factors and their relationships with known deposits were examined by jackknife analysis and response curves. Prediction–area (P–A) curves were used to determine threshold values for demarcating high probability of tungsten polymetallic deposit occurrence within small exploration area. The final predictive map showed that high favorability zones occupy 14.5% of the study area and contain 85.5% of the known tungsten polymetallic deposits. Our study suggests that the MaxEnt model can be efficiently used to integrate multisource geo-spatial information for mineral prospectivity analysis.     

Responding to the consequences of uncertainty in geographical data

The presence of uncertainty in geographical data has the potential to expose users to undesirable consequences in their decision making. Accordingly, our efforts to understand uncertainty seek to (a) avoid the use of data that are not suitable for their intended purpose (that is, data whose consequences are unacceptable), (b) to reduce any undesirable consequences to an acceptable level, and (c) to devise ways of living with undesirable data when the adverse consequences caused by poor data do not alter our ultimate decision choice. To assist this task, we propose an approach where the adverse consequences of uncertainty caused by the use of unsuitable geographical data are expressed in terms of risk. In this paper we first show that risk management offers geographical data users a range of options for responding to the adverse consequences of data uncertainty, and secondly we present and discuss the various risk response options.     

Comprehensive Evaluation of the Suitability of Agricultural Land in Myanmar

Myanmar is a country with an economy based on agriculture. It has rich agricultural resources and great potential for development. The development of agriculture in Myanmar is becoming increasingly important to international food security. Assessments of agricultural land resources in Myanmar are the basis for the country’s agricultural development and for food security evaluations. In this paper we used the MaxEnt model to analyze the relationship between the suitability of land for agricultural reclamation and the main environmental variables in Myanmar, and then constructed a model to comprehensively evaluate the suitability of land for agriculture in Myanmar. The results show that: 1) the overall accuracy of the MaxEnt model is high (AUC>0.8), which means there is a high correlation between the database of selected environmental indicators and the true distribution of cultivated land in Myanmar. 2) Soil depth is the most important factor affecting the suitability of land for agriculture in Myanmar. When the thickness of soil layer is less than 100 cm, the suitability of land for agriculture is low. With respect to topographic conditions, slope is the main factor affecting suitability. When the slope is greater than 20 degrees, the suitability of land for agriculture is low. With respect to climate conditions, precipitation is the main influencing factor. There is a positive correlation between river network density and land suitability. 3) Currently, 400 000 km² of the land resources in Myanmar are suitable for agriculture, and of this amount 290 000 km² are highly suitable, accounting for nearly 40% of the country's land area. The highly suitable land is distributed mainly in Magway, Sagaing, Ayeyarwady and Yangon provinces. The provinces are also important grain production areas in Myanmar, and this serves to validate the effectiveness of the method used in this paper.