Diagnostic model construction and example analysis of habitat degradation in enclosed bay: II. spatiotemporal variations in habitat degradation in Sansha Bay

The process of habitat degradation varies in habitat type and driving force which shows certain spatial and temporal heterogeneity on regional scales. In the present study, a new diagnostic model for enclosed bay habitat degradation was established, with which the spatial and temporal variation patterns of habitat degradation during 1991–2012 in Sansha Bay, Fujian, China was investigated. The results show that anthropogenic disturbance is the major controlling factor for the habitat degradation in large temporal heterogeneity in the bay. On the other hand, the habitat degradation experienced signifi cant spatial variations among six sub-bays. Under the joint action of temporal and spatial heterogeneity, the degradation trend in growing scale shows a more signifi cant correlation with the distribution of local leading industries along shorelines. Therefore, we quantifi ed the main characters of habitat degradation in Sansha Bay, and have understood the relationship between the status of habitats spatio-temporal variation value and the main controlling factor leading to the changes. However, a defi ciency of this research is the lack of or inaccessible to the detailed data, which shall be better solved in the future study for accessing more data from more sources.     

Diagnostic model construction and example analysis of habitat degradation in enclosed bay: III. Sansha Bay habitat restoration strategy

Unbalanced inputs and outputs of material are the root cause of habitat degradation in Sansha Bay,Fujian Province,China. However,the cumulative pollution varies in different geographic locations and natural conditions in the enclosed bay. In this study,hydrodynamic conditions,sediment characteristics,and aquaculture methods were recognized as the underlying causes of spatial heterogeneity in the distribution of nitrogen and phosphorous pollutants,the two major controlling factors of habitat degradation in the bay area. In order to achieve the goal of balancing nutrient inputs and outputs in Sansha Bay,we developed a feasible and practical zone restoration strategy for reasonable adjustment and arrangement of aquaculture species and production scale in accordance with varying hydrodynamic conditions and sediment characteristics in six sub-bay areas(sub-systems). The proposed zone restoration strategy lays a solid foundation for habitat restoration and management in Sansha Bay.     

Importance of weighting for multi-variable habitat suitability index model: A case study of winter-spring cohort of Ommastrephes bartramii in the Northwestern Pacific Ocean

Weighting values for different habitat variables used in multi-factor habitat suitability index (HSI) modeling reflect the relative influences of different variables on distribution of fish species. Using the winter-spring cohort of neon flying squid (Ommastrephes bartramii) in the Northwestern Pacific Ocean as an example, we evaluated the impact of different weighting schemes on the HSI models based on sea surface temperature, gradient of sea surface temperature and sea surface height. We compared differences in predicted fishing effort and HSI values resulting from different weighting. The weighting for different habitat variables could greatly influence HSI modeling and should be carefully done based on their relative importance in influencing the resource spatial distribution. Weighting in a multi-factor HSI model should be further studied and optimization methods should be developed to improve forecasting squid spatial distributions.     

SEFIDROOD RIVER SUB-WATERSHED-DAM-ESTUARY AND DEGRADATION MODEL： A HOLISTIC APPROACH IN IRAN

The major concern of this article is to address the shortcoming and outgoing effects of the human activities on the landscape patterns and their consequences in the Sefidrood River watershed in Iran. A flow of data includes three inputs; each of them belongs to one part of three zones of a fluvial system. The three parts of the Sefidrood River fluvial system include Zone 1, a sub-watershed as degradation modeling site, Zone 2, Sefidrood Dam asdam site, and Zone 3, 17kin away from the Sefidrood River path to the Caspian Sea as ending point site. The degra-dation model in the Zone 1 provides a suitable mean for decision support system to decrease the human impacts oneach small district. The maximum number for degradation coefficient belongs to the small district with the highest physiographic density, relatively cumulative activities, and a lower figure for the habitat vulnerability. The human degradation impact were not limited to the upstream. The investigation to the Sefidrood Dam and ending point of the Sefidrood River depicts that sedimentation continues as a significant visual impact in the Sefidrood Dam reservoir and the estuary.     

COUPLED PHYSICAL-ECOLOGICAL MODELLING IN THE CENTRAL PART OF JIAOZHOU BAY Ⅱ.COUPLED WITH AN ECOLOGICAL MODEL

Sharpies‘ 1-D physical rrozlel maploying tide-wind driven turbulence closure and surface heating-cooling physics, was coupled with an eculogical rnodet with 9-biochemical components: phytoplankton, zooplankton, shellfish, autotmphic and heterotrophic bacterioplankton, dissolved organic carbon (DOC), suspended detritus and sinking particles to simulate the armual evolution of ecosystem in thecentral part of Jiaozhou Bay. The coupled modeling results showed that the phytoplankton shading effectcould reduce seawater temperamre by 2℃, so that photosynthesis efficiency should be less than 8% ; that the loss of phytoplankton by zooplankton grazing in winter tended to be compensated by phytoplankton advection and diffusion from the otrtside of the Bay; that the incidem irradiance intensity could be the mostimportant factor for phytoplankton grcr, wth rate; and that it was the bacterial secondary prnduction that maintained the maximum zooplankton biomass in winter usually observed in the 1990s, indicating that themicrobial food loop was extremely important for ecosystem study of Jiaozhou Bay.     

Effect of spatial and temporal scales on habitat suitability modeling: A case study of Ommastrephes bartramii in the northwest pacific ocean

Temporal and spatial scales play important roles in fishery ecology, and an inappropriate spatio-temporal scale may result in large errors in modeling fish distribution. The objective of this study is to evaluate the roles of spatio-temporal scales in habitat suitability modeling, with the western stock of winter-spring cohort of neon flying squid(Ommastrephes bartramii) in the northwest Pacific Ocean as an example. In this study, the fishery-dependent data from the Chinese Mainland Squid Jigging Technical Group and sea surface temperature(SST) from remote sensing during August to October of 2003–2008 were used. We evaluated the differences in a habitat suitability index model resulting from aggregating data with 36 different spatial scales with a combination of three latitude scales(0.5°, 1° and 2°), four longitude scales(0.5°, 1°, 2° and 4°), and three temporal scales(week, fortnight, and month). The coefficients of variation(CV) of the weekly, biweekly and monthly suitability index(SI) were compared to determine which temporal and spatial scales of SI model are more precise. This study shows that the optimal temporal and spatial scales with the lowest CV are month, and 0.5° latitude and 0.5° longitude for O. bartramii in the northwest Pacific Ocean. This suitability index model developed with an optimal scale can be cost-effective in improving forecasting fishing ground and requires no excessive sampling efforts. We suggest that the uncertainty associated with spatial and temporal scales used in data aggregations needs to be considered in habitat suitability modeling.     

Estimation of the maximum allowable loading amount of COD in Luoyuan Bay by a 3-D COD transport and transformation model

The rapid economic and social developments in the Luoyuan and Lianjiang counties of Fujian Province, China, raise certain environment and ecosystem issues. The unusual phytoplankton bloom and eutrophication, for example, have increased in severity in Luoyuan Bay(LB). The constant increase of nutrient loads has largely caused the environmental degradation in LB. Several countermeasures have been implemented to solve these environmental problems. The most effective of these strategies is the reduction of pollutant loadings into the sea in accordance with total pollutant load control(TPLC) plans. A combined three-dimensional hydrodynamic transport-transformation model was constructed to estimate the marine environmental capacity of chemical oxygen demand(COD). The allowed maximum loadings for each discharge unit in LB were calculated with applicable simulation results. The simulation results indicated that the environmental capacity of COD is approximately 11×104 t year-1 when the water quality complies with the marine functional zoning standards for LB. A pollutant reduction scheme to diminish the present levels of mariculture- and domestic-based COD loadings is based on the estimated marine COD environmental capacity. The obtained values imply that the LB waters could comply with the targeted water quality criteria. To meet the revised marine functional zoning standards, discharge loadings from discharge units 1 and 11 should be reduced to 996 and 3236 t year-1, respectively.     

A systems approach for analyzing vegetative and soil degradation in Arnigad micro-watershed of Indian Himalayan region

This study analyzes the vegetative and soil degradation, measured as biomass and soil loss, for Arnigad micro-watershed located in Indian Himalayan state of Uttarakhand, in systems framework by using dynamic linear programming bio-economic model. The focus is at investigating the effects of alternate policy regimes, i.e., introduction of improved energy sources for cooking along with substitution of existing local livestock breeds with improved breed, reduction in human population growth and introduction of high yielding varieties of main crops including paddy, maize and wheat. The model horizon extended over a period of 25 years, i.e., from 2006 to 2030. It was found that the model scenario incorporating increased use of improved energy sources along with substitution of local cows by improved cows could be the most effective policy option in reducing vegetative and soil degradation. The vegetative biomass density declined to 19.76% compared to 35.24% in the BASE scenario and soil erosion loss was also lowered by 29.13%. Also, the reduction of population growth rate to half of the BASE scenario led to minor improvements in degradation. Introduction of high yielding varieties of main crops slightly increased vegetative degradation but reduced soil loss (8.35%) with respect to the BASE scenario. Such a phenomenon could be explained in terms of changed crop mix resulting in reduced amount of crop by-products requiring increased lopping of tree branches for animal fodder. The policy option of the increased use of improved energy sources along with substitution of improved breed of cows resulted in 9.58% higher income. Introduction of high yielding varieties of crops led to 1.92% increase in income, but the income decreased by 1.25 % when population growth was reduced to half. The usefulness of the model lies in analyzing the systems behavior in its entirety where the results can predict the possible direction of change as a result of manipulation in alternate economic regimes.     

Simulation of phytoplankton biomass in Quanzhou Bay using a back propagation network model and sensitivity analysis for environmental variables

Prediction and sensitivity models,to elucidate the response of phytoplankton biomass to environmental factors in Quanzhou Bay,Fujian,China,were developed using a back propagation(BP) network.The environmental indicators of coastal phytoplankton biomass were determined and monitoring data for the bay from 2008 was used to train,test and build a three-layer BP artificial neural network with multi-input and single-output.Ten water quality parameters were used to forecast phytoplankton biomass(measured as chlorophyll-a concentration).Correlation coefficient between biomass values predicted by the model and those observed was 0.964,whilst the average relative error of the network was-3.46% and average absolute error was 10.53%.The model thus has high level of accuracy and is suitable for analysis of the influence of aquatic environmental factors on phytoplankton biomass.A global sensitivity analysis was performed to determine the influence of different environmental indicators on phytoplankton biomass.Indicators were classified according to the sensitivity of response and its risk degree.The results indicate that the parameters most relevant to phytoplankton biomass are estuary-related and include pH,sea surface temperature,sea surface salinity,chemical oxygen demand and ammonium.     

Dynamics of communal land degradation and its implications in the arid mountains of pakistan: A study of District Karak,Khyber Pakhtunkuwa

Similar to other areas of Pakistan, land resources in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa （KP） is kept under various ownership regimes for socio-economic and ecological benefits. For the last three to four decades, communal lands and resources are subjected to high rate of degradation and deterioration, which is leading to multifarious socio-economical and ecological implications. This paper intends to look into factors that are responsible for the degradation of communal land and the adaptability of the management mechanisms developed by the local inhabitants to conserve these resources. Moreover, this study also explores the sustainability of these adopted strategies in present circumstances. Data regarding socio-economic parameters of the inhabitants and their interactions with communal lands were collected through questionnaire cum interview method. As long-term climatic data for the area do not exist therefore focus group discussions were conducted to document the changing trend in rainfall regimes and temperature variations for the last about four decades. Results indicate that communal lands are highly vulnerable to degradation due to biophysical and anthropogenic factors. Local inhabitants have developed suitable measures to control the situation, however, accelerated socio-economic transformations in the area have weakened the role of local institutions and that led to further degradation of these resources. Nevertheless, a number of locally formulated rules have been revived and implemented and it is hoped that these threatened resources would be conserved.     

基于WRF模式的陕西两次区域性秋季暴雨的数值模拟

2005年陕西秋淋天气明显且偏晚,通过WRF模式对秋淋期间的两次区域性暴雨模拟结果显示,暴雨雨带走向、强降雨中心位置以及强降水出现的时间段等都与实况基本吻合,预报时效可达36-48小时;模式能成功地模拟出暴雨的主要影响系统和不同时段的风场演变变化.分析表明,利用该模式可以对不同类型暴雨进行机理分析和研究,能够作为未来客观预报陕西转折性天气和暴雨天气一种新的技术手段和工具.     

页岩气藏压裂水平井产能模型及影响因素

由于页岩气在储层中存在解吸、扩散和渗流相互作用,使页岩气藏压裂水平井与常规气藏压裂水平井在渗流特征及产能递减规律方面有较大差异.综合考虑页岩气解吸、扩散和渗流特征,建立页岩气藏压裂水平井产能模型,应用Laplace变换和Duhamel原理,结合Stehfest数值反演求解产能模型,绘制页岩气藏压裂水平井产能递减曲线,分析解吸系数、无因次储容系数、无因次解吸时间、无因次人工裂缝间距、人工裂缝条数和裂缝表皮系数对产能递减曲线的影响.该结果对认识页岩气藏压裂水平井产能递减规律、评价预测产能及优化压裂裂缝提供参考.     

Sensitivity analysis of thermal equilibrium parameters of MIKE 11 model: A case study of Wuxikou Reservoir in Jiangxi Province of China

Sensitivity analysis of thermal equilibrium parameters in the reservoir module of MIKE 11 model was conducted for the Wuxikou Reservoir in Jiangxi Province of China in order to apply the module to the environmental impact assessment to accurately predict water temperature of reservoirs.Results showed that radiation parameter A and evaporation-first parameter were much more sensitive than other parameters.The values of the radiation parameter A ranged from 0.10 to 0.34.The values of evaporation-first parameter varied from 0 to 10.The sensitivity of solar absorption parameters was less than that of evaporation parameter,of which light attenuation values ranged from 0.5 to 0.7,and this parameter would not impact model results if it was more than 2.Constants in Beer’s law ranged from 0.2 to 0.7.Radiation parameter B was not more sensitive than evaporation parameter and its reasonable range was higher than 0.48.The fitting curves showed consistent changing tendency for these parameters within the reasonable ranges.Additionally,all the thermal equilibrium parameters had much more important effects on surface water temperature than deep water temperature.Moreover,if no observed data could be obtained,the local empirical value would be used to input to the MIKE 11 model to simulate the changes in the discharged outflow-water temperature qualitatively.     

A method of catchments health assessment under value-pressure model and its application in urbanized river network area: A case study in Shanghai,China

Catchments health assessment is fundamental to effective catchments management. Generally, an as-sessment method should be selected to reflect both the purpose of assessment and local characteristics. A trial in Shanghai was conducted to test the method for catchments health assessment in urbanized river network area. Seven indicators that described four dimensions of river, river network, land use and function, and local feature were used to assess catchments values; while possible change rate of urbanization and industrialization in the next 3 years were chosen for catchments pressure assessment in the value-pressure model. Factors related to catchments classi-fication, indicators measurement and protection priority have been considered in the development strategies for catchments health management. The results showed that value-pressure assessment was applicable in urbanized catchments health management, particularly when both human and catchments had multiple demands. As a result of over 30-year rapid urbanization, more than 70% of Shanghai river network area was still in a healthy condition with high catchments values, among them, 39.3% was under high pressure. Poor water quality, simplified river system and weakened local feature of river pattern had largely affected catchments health in Shanghai. Lack of long-term monitoring data would seriously restrict the development and validity of catchments health assessment.     

A sand control and development model in sandy land based on mixed experiments of arsenic sandstone and sand: A case study in Mu Us Sandy Land in China

Serious desertification caused by human activity and climate change, in addition to water loss and soil erosion related to arsenic sandstone in the Mu Us Sandy Land, lead to severe scarcity of soil and water resources, which causes worse local agricultural conditions accordingly. Many physical properties of arsenic sandstone is complementary with that of sand, arsenic sandstone is therefore supposed to be blended to enhance water productivity and arability of sandy land. Container experiments are carried out to study the enhancement of water holding capacity of the mixture, the blending ratio of arsenic sandstone and sand, and the proper size of the arsenic sandstone particles, respectively. The results of the experiments show that particle size of 4 cm with a ratio of 1 ： 2 between arsenic sandstone and sand are the proper parameters on blending. Both water content and fertility increase after blending. Water use efficiency in the mixture is 2.7 times higher than that in sand by the water release curves from experiments. Therefore, a new sand control and development model, including arsenic sandstone blending with sand, efficient water irrigation management and reasonable farming system, is put forward to control and develop sandy land so that water-saving agriculture could be developed. Demonstration of potato planting about 153.1 ha in area in the Mu Us Sandy Land in China indicates that water consumption is 3018 m3/ha in the whole growth period. It means that about 61% of irrigation water can be saved compared with water use in coarse sand without treatment. Recycle economic mode and positive feedback of sand resource-crop planting-soil resource are constructed, which changes sand into arable soil and make it possible to develop water-saving agriculture on it. The proposed model will be helpful for soil-water resources utilization and management in the Mu Us Sandy Land.     

黄河口凹陷西北部湖底扇的沉积演化及发育模式——以古近纪沙三下亚段为例

湖底扇是黄河口凹陷古近纪一种重要的沉积类型,扇体储集物性和含油性较好,具有勘探价值.研究黄河口凹陷沙河街组沙三下亚段岩心、测井、地震反射特征,认为A区含油砂岩体为在半深湖—深湖环境形成的2种类型湖底扇沉积.低位域时期发育远岸的深水浊积湖底扇;湖扩域和高位域时期发育由三角洲前缘砂体滑塌进入湖底堆积而成的滑塌浊积湖底扇.从空间分布看,深水浊积扇主要发育在低位域湖盆内二阶断裂的下降盘;滑塌浊积扇主要发育在研究区南部的断裂陡坡带,位于扇三角洲前方,且扇体规模较大,发育时间长.湖底扇的发育受沉积坡折和断裂坡折的控制.由于构造背景、湖平面变化及物源供应不同,湖底扇的位置、规模和形态也不尽相同.