Evaluation and estimation of daily global solar radiation from the estimated direct and diffuse solar radiation

Active layer plays a key role in regulating the dynamics of hydrothermal processes and ecosystems that are sensitive to the changing climate in permafrost regions. However, little is known about the hydrothermal dynamics during freeze-thaw processes in permafrost regions with different vegetation types on the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau (QTP). In the present study, the freezing and thawing processes at four sites (QT01, 03, 04, and 05) with different vegetation types on the QTP was analyzed. The results indicated that the impact on the soil water and heat during the summer thawing process was markedly greater than that during the autumn freezing process. Furthermore, the thermal-orbit regression slopes for all sites exhibited a homologous variation as the depth increased, with the slowest attenuation for the meadow sites (QT01 and QT03) and a slightly faster attenuation for the desert steppe site (QT05). The air and ground surface temperatures were similar in winter, but the ground surface temperature was significantly higher than the air temperature in summer in the radiation-rich environment at all sites on the QTP. The results also indicated that the n-factors were between 0.36 and 0.55 during the thawing season, and the annual mean temperature near the permafrost table was between − 1.26 and − 1.84 °C. In the alpine desert steppe region, the thermal conditions exhibited to show a warming trend, with a current permafrost table temperature of − 0.22 °C. The annual changing amplitude of the ground temperature at the permafrost table was different for different vegetation types.     

Retrieving air humidity,global solar radiation,and reference evapotranspiration from daily temperatures: development and validation of new methods for Mexico. Part II: radiation

We propose a new model to estimate daily global radiation from daily temperature range measurements. This model combines that of Majumdar et al. (Sol Energy 13(4):383–394, 1972) to estimate clear sky radiation with a Gompertz function to estimate the relation between temperature range and cloud transmittance. Model parameters are estimated from historical weather data: maximum and minimum temperatures and, if available, relative humidity; no other calibration is required. The model was parametrized and validated using 788 weather stations in Mexico. When calibrated using historical humidity data, daily global radiation was estimated with a mean root mean square error of 3.06 MJ m^?2 day^?1. The model performed well in all situations, except for a few stations around the Gulf of Mexico and in mountain areas. When using estimated humidity, the root mean square error of prediction was only slightly degraded (3.07 MJ m^?2 day^?1). Possible theoretical basis and applicability of this model to other environments are discussed.     

Estimating global solar radiation

A model is presented to calculate daily totals of global solar radiation. First, cloudless sky radiation is evaluated from transmission due to absorption and scattering. Cloud effects are added using cloud layer transmission. A simple expression to account for additional radiation due to reflection between the ground surface and cloud bases is also included. Atmospheric transmissions are obtained from previous studies. Precipitable water and observations of cloud type and amount for different layers in the atmosphere are the only meteorological variables required. The model is evaluated and tested with data collected at stations in and around Lake Ontario: a lake station near Grimsby in 1969 and land stations at Burlington, Scarborough, Peterborough, Trenton and Kingston, Ontario in 1972 and 1973 during the International Field Year for the Great Lakes. Good agreement between calculated and measured radiation was obtained at all stations, particularly for 5- and 10-day means. Model performance was largely independent of both cloud amount and season.     

Retrieving air humidity,global solar radiation,and reference evapotranspiration from daily temperatures: development and validation of new methods for Mexico. Part I: humidity

The occurrence of flood and drought frequency is highly correlated with the temporal fluctuations of streamflow series; understanding of these fluctuations is essential for the improved modeling and statistical prediction of extreme changes in river basins. In this study, the complexity of daily streamflow fluctuations was investigated by using multifractal detrended fluctuation analysis (MF-DFA) in a large heterogeneous lake basin, the Poyang Lake basin in China, and the potential impacts of human activities were also explored. Major results indicate that the multifractality of streamflow fluctuations shows significant regional characteristics. In the study catchment, all the daily streamflow series present a strong long-range correlation with Hurst exponents bigger than 0.8. The q-order Hurst exponent h(q) of all the hydrostations can be characterized well by only two parameters: a (0.354 ≤ a ≤ 0.384) and b (0.627 ≤ b ≤ 0.677), with no pronounced differences. Singularity spectrum analysis pointed out that small fluctuations play a dominant role in all daily streamflow series. Our research also revealed that both the correlation properties and the broad probability density function (PDF) of hydrological series can be responsible for the multifractality of streamflow series that depends on watershed areas. In addition, we emphasized the relationship between watershed area and the estimated multifractal parameters, such as the Hurst exponent and fitted parameters a and b from the q-order Hurst exponent h(q). However, the relationship between the width of the singularity spectrum (Δα) and watershed area is not clear. Further investigation revealed that increasing forest coverage and reservoir storage can effectively enhance the persistence of daily streamflow, decrease the hydrological complexity of large fluctuations, and increase the small fluctuations.     

The sea breeze at Venice,as related to daily global solar radiation

Although the sea breeze at Venice and on her hinterland is influenced by orography - mainly the Alps — to the north and the Po Valley to the west, the search for a correlation between the frequency of development of the sea breeze and the daily global solar radiation seems to be desirable, and may be useful for the management of emissions from the industrial area near Venice. Three different cases are examined: (i) the sea breeze occuring in the absence of any appreciable gradient wind; (ii) the sea breeze superimposed on a prevailing wind; (iii) the sea breeze not developing at all. The frequency distributions of these cases related to the global solar radiation at Venice are discussed.     

Retrieving air humidity,global solar radiation,and reference evapotranspiration from daily temperatures: development and validation of new methods for Mexico. Part III: reference evapotranspiration

We evaluated two methods to estimate evapotranspiration (ETo) from minimal weather records (daily maximum and minimum temperatures) in Mexico: a modified reduced set FAO-Penman-Monteith method (Allen et al. 1998, Rome, Italy) and the Hargreaves and Samani (Appl Eng Agric 1(2): 96–99, 1985) method. In the reduced set method, the FAO-Penman-Monteith equation was applied with vapor pressure and radiation estimated from temperature data using two new models (see first and second articles in this series): mean temperature as the average of maximum and minimum temperature corrected for a constant bias and constant wind speed. The Hargreaves-Samani method combines two empirical relationships: one between diurnal temperature range ΔT and shortwave radiation Rs, and another one between average temperature and the ratio ETo/Rs: both relationships were evaluated and calibrated for Mexico. After performing a sensitivity analysis to evaluate the impact of different approximations on the estimation of Rs and ETo, several model combinations were tested to predict ETo from daily maximum and minimum temperature alone. The quality of fit of these models was evaluated on 786 weather stations covering most of the territory of Mexico. The best method was found to be a combination of the FAO-Penman-Monteith reduced set equation with the new radiation estimation and vapor pressure model. As an alternative, a recalibration of the Hargreaves-Samani equation is proposed.     

Models for obtaining daily global solar irradiation from air temperature data

The study presents a critical assessment of the possibility of global solar irradiation computation by using air temperature instead of sunshine duration with the classical Ångström equations. The reason for this approach comes from the fact that, although the air temperature is a worldwide measured meteorological parameter, this is rarely used in solar radiation estimation techniques. More than that, the literature is very silent concerning the testing of such models in Eastern Europe. Two new global solar irradiation models (to be called AEAT) related to solar irradiation under clear sky conditions and having the minimum and maximum daily air temperature as input parameters were tested and compared with others from the literature against data measured at five stations in Romania in the year 2000. The accuracy of AEAT is acceptable and comparable to that of the models which use sunshine duration or cloud amount as input parameters. Since temperature-based Ångström correlations are strongly sensitive to origin, the approach for AEAT as a tool for potential users is presented in detail. Additionally reported is a new method to increase the generality of AEAT concerning the extension of the geographical application area. Based on overall results it was concluded that air temperature successfully substitutes sunshine duration in the estimation of the available solar energy.     

A simplified calibrated model for estimating daily global solar radiation in Madinah, Saudi Arabia

Solar radiation is the most important parameter in defining the energy budget at the surface thereby influencing the hydroclimate. Several empirical models based on air temperature are developed and used in several decision-making needs such as agriculture and energy sector. However, a calibration against direct observations is a priori for implementing such models. A calibrated model is developed for Saudi Arabia (Madinah) based on observations during 2007–2011. The model $ \left( {\mathrm{Rs}=A+B\cdot \mathrm{R}{{\mathrm{s}}_0}{{{\left( {{T_{\max }}-{T_{\min }}} \right)}}^C}} \right) $ is used to estimate daily solar radiation and results show a correlation coefficient of 0.94. The calibrated model outperforms the uncalibrated model available for this location. To increase the confidence, the calibrated model is also compared with a simple artificial neural network.     

Modelling daily global radiation at the forest floor

A simple model is developed which estimates daily global radiation at the floor of a non-homogeneous Eucalyptus forest. Model input parameters are easily derived from field measurements and consist of individual tree location, tree height, maximum canopy width and its corresponding height, height of the lowest branch and trunk thickness. In addition, the model requires values for global and diffuse irradiance in the open. The tree canopy is represented as a series of spheres containing leaves which are homogeneously spaced but are oriented in the vertical plane. This configuration closely approaches that of actual eucalyptus trees. A Monte-Carlo approach is used to estimate the albedo of the unit sphere as a function of solar zenith angle. At a given combination of solar zenith and azimuth angle, the model estimates the solar irradiance at a specific forest floor location.The model, when tested against pyranometer measurements, predicted daily solar irradiance with a correlation of 0.98 and a standard error of 0.98 MJ m^-2 day^-1. This good performance is attributed to the spatial averaging of the radiation fluxes over the entire day, and the relatively low sensitivity of the calculated solar irradiance to sphere albedo.     

The determination of hourly values of total solar radiation from daily summations

Summary Curves, based on measured total (direct plus sky) solar radiation data for several stations in the Union of South Africa, are presented which enable the hourly distribution of total solar radiation on a horizontal surface to be determined for any locality, and any time of year on a long-term basis. In addition a graph is given showing the fraction of the daily total radiation which is received between stated hours, together with curves for four stations for estimating the difference between morning and afternoon total radiation for hour-pairs symmetrical about noon.Although based on South African solar radiation data, the curves are presented in a form convenient for use, as a first approximation, for localities anywhere in the world, and for any time of year. They are applicable for long-term averages as well as for cloudless days.

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Zusammenfassung Es werden Kurven der Globalstrahlung von Sonne und Himmel abgeleitet, die auf langjährigen Meßwerten für gewisse Stationen in der Südafrikanischen Union beruhen und gestatten, die stündliche Verteilung der Globalstrahlung auf Horizontalfläche für einen beliebigen Ort und für jede Jahreszeit zu bestimmen. In einem Diagramm wird gezeigt, welcher Anteil der täglichen Strahlungssumme zwischen bestimmten Stunden einfällt, außerdem werden Kurven für vier Stationen aufgestellt, um den Unterschied zwischen Vormittags- und Nachmittags-Globalstrahlung für zum wahren Mittag symmetrisch gelegene Stundenpaare zu untersuchen. Obgleich diese Kurven auf südafrikanischen Strahlungsmessungen basieren, ermöglicht ihre Form in erster Annäherung auch die Anwendung auf beliebige Orte der Erde und auf alle Jahreszeiten; sie können sowohl auf langjährige Mittelwerte wie auch auf wolkenlose Tage Anwendung finden.

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Résumé A partir des moyennes de mesures portant sur un certain nombre d'années de plusieurs stations de l'Union Sud-Africaine, l'auteur déduit des courbes qui permettent de déterminer la répartition horaire du rayonnement global du soleil et du ciel sur une surface horizontale pour un lieu donné et pour chaque saison. Un diagramme indique quelle est la proportion de la somme diurne du rayonnement entre des heures déterminées. D'autre part il construit des courbes pour quatre stations afin d'examiner la différence entre la rayonnement global du matin et de l'après-midi et cela pour des couples d'heures situées symétriquement par rapport au midi vrai. Bien que ces courbes aient été faites à partir de mesures du rayonnement en Afrique du Sud, à première approximation leur forme permet de les employer également dans d'autres régions de la Terre et pour toutes les saisons. Elles peuvent être utilisées aussi bien pour des moyennes portant sur de nombreuses années que pour les jours sans nuages.

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With 3 Figures     

几种水平面太阳总辐射量计算模型的对比分析

利用中国区域1961-1999年39 a间98个常规气象观测数据,建立6个模型分别以天文辐射、干洁大气总辐射和湿洁大气总辐射为起始数据,进行太阳辐射日总量的模拟,对比分析了6个水平面太阳总辐射量计算模型的性能.结果表明:在三种起始数据中,干洁大气总辐射和湿洁大气总辐射均能较好地体现宏观地势对太阳辐射空间分布的影响,以湿洁大气总辐射为起始数据的计算模型拟合精度相对较高.对6个水平面太阳总辐射量计算模型的对比分析发现:2个以日照百分率为主导因子,气温日较差为修正项的综合模型拟合误差最小,精度最高;经典的日照百分率模型次之,但其模型系数最稳定可靠;3个气温日较差模型拟合效果最差.最终选用经验系数稳定、拟合精度较高的日照百分率模型,制作了2001年中国水平面太阳辐射日总量空间分布图.     

Simulation of the influence of solar radiation variations on the global climate with an ocean-atmosphere general circulation model

 Two simulations with a global coupled ocean-atmosphere circulation model have been carried out to study the potential impact of solar variability on climate. The Hoyt and Schatten estimate of solar variability from 1700 to 1992 has been used to force the model. Results indicate that the near-surface temperature simulated by the model is dominated by the long periodic solar fluctuations (Gleissberg cycle), with global mean temperatures varying by about 0.5 K. Further results indicate that solar variability and an increase in greenhouse gases both induce to a first approximation a comparable pattern of surface temperature change, i.e., an increase of the land-sea contrast. However, the solar-induced warming pattern in annual means and summer is more centered over the subtropics, compared to a more uniform warming associated with the increase in greenhouse gases. The observed temperature rise over the most recent 30 and 100 years is larger than the trend in the solar forcing simulation during the same period, indicating a strong likelihood that, if the model forcing and response is realistic, other factors have contributed to the observed warming. Since the pattern of the recent observed warming agrees better with the greenhouse warming pattern than with the solar variability response, it is likely that one of these factors is the increase of the atmospheric greenhouse gas concentration. Received: 14 October 1996 / Accepted: 9 May 1997     

Evaluation of support vector machine for estimation of solar radiation from measured meteorological variables

Solar radiation is an essential and important variable to many models. However, it is measured at a very limited number of meteorological stations in the world. Developing method for accurate estimation of solar radiation from measured meteorological variables has been a focus and challenging task. This paper presents the method of solar radiation estimation using support vector machine (SVM). The main objective of this work is to examine the feasibility of SVM and explore its potential in solar radiation estimation. A total of 20 SVM models using different combinations of sunshine ratio, maximum and minimum air temperature, relative humidity, and atmospheric water vapor pressure as input attributes are explored using meteorological data at 15 stations in China. These models significantly outperform the empirical models with an average 14 % higher accuracy. When sunshine duration data are available, model SVM2 using sunshine ratio and air temperature range is proposed. It significantly outperforms the empirical models with an average 26 % higher accuracy. When sunshine duration data are not available, model SVM19 using maximum temperature, minimum temperature and atmospheric water vapor pressure is proposed. It significantly outperforms the temperature-based empirical models with an average of 18 % higher accuracy. The remarkable improvement indicates that the SVM method would be a promising alternative over traditional approaches for estimation of solar radiation at any locations.     

A method for preparing maps of mean daily global radiation

Summary Daily values of global radiation from 10 stations for the period 1950–1960 are used as a base to describe the distribution of the global radiation of solar energy in the Intermontane Basin and Plateau Region of the western United States (including areas of the States from Washington and Idaho in the North to the Mexican frontier in the south). The empirical relations between radiation and more commonly available climatic and geographic variables—percent of possible sunshine, mean daily cloud cover, presence or absence of snow on the ground, optical air mass, and station elevation and latitude—are established through regression and correlation analysis for these stations and used to estimate radiation at 16 additional locations where radiation data are not collected. This provides better geographic coverage than could be obtained from use of radiation data alone. The technique also permits the filling-in of missing data in the records of the 10 stations to provide each with a complete record for the study period. Selected monthly maps of mean daily global radiation are presented for the region.

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Zusammenfassung Tagessummen der Globalstrahlung von 10 Stationen aus der Periode 1950 bis 1960 werden verwendet, um die Verteilung der Globalstrahlung von Sonne und Himmel im Westen der Vereinigten Staaten (Intermontane Basin und Plateau Region, umfassend Gebiete der Staaten von Washington und Idaho im Norden bis zur mexikanischen Grenze, jedoch unter Ausschluß der tieferen Lagen von Kalifornien) darzustellen. Die empirischen Beziehungen zwischen Strahlung und anderen, allgemeiner verfügbaren klimatischen und geographischen Variabeln — wie relative Sonnenscheindauer, Tagesmittel der Himmelsbedeckung, Vorhandensein oder Fehlen einer Schneedecke, optische Luftmasse, Meereshöhe und Breite der Station —werden durch Regressions- und Korrelationsanalyse für diese Stationen aufgestellt und dazu benützt, um für weitere 16 Orte, für welche keine Strahlungsbeobachtungen vorliegen, die Strahlungswerte abzuschätzen. Dadurch wird die geographische Verteilung besser erfaßt als lediglich durch die vorhandenen Strahlungsdaten. Das gleiche Verfahren gestattet auch, fehlende Werte in den Aufzeichnungen der Ausgangsstationen zu ergänzen und dadurch die Reihen zu vervollständigen. Eine Auswahl von Monatskarten der mittleren Tagessumen der Globalstrahlung für das Gebiet wird vorgelegt.

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Résumé Pour représenter la répartition du rayonnement global du soleil et du ciel dans l'ouest des Etats-Unis, on s'est servi des sommes journalières du dit rayonnement recueillies à 10 stations pendant la période allant de 1950 à 1960. La région considérée comprend les bassins versants et les hauts plateaux s'étendant des Etats de Washington et de l'Idaho au nord jusqu'à la frontière du Méxique au sud, mais à l'exception des terres basses de la Californie. Afin d'estimer les valeurs de la radiation globale en 16 stations différentes, mais où elle n'est pas mesurée, on s'est servi de rapports empiriques entre la dite radiation et les éléments météorologiques ou géographiques généralement disponibles. Ceux-ci sont: la durée d'insolation relative, la nébulosité journalière moyenne, la présence ou l'absence d'une couche de neige, l'épaisseur optique de la masse d'air, l'altitude et la latitude du lieu. Les rapports empiriques utilisés sont calculés au moyen d'une analyse en régressions et en corrélations. On peut alors mieux se rendre compte de la répartition géographique réelle de la radiation globale qu'en se servant des seuls relevés effectués. Les mêmes procédés permettent en outre de combler les lacunes que présentent les mesures faites aux stations de base afin d'obtenir des séries complètes pour la période entière. On présente enfin un choix de cartes de la région, cartes contenant les moyennes mensuelles de la somme journalière de la radiation globale.

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With 12 Figures