On the Integrability of Limited-Area Numerical Weather Prediction Model ALADIN over Extended Time Periods

This note summarizes results of the first integration of regional numerical weather prediction model ALADIN in a climate mode. The ALADIN model, developed in an international cooperation led by Météo France, is operationally used for weather prediction. The grid step of the model is 12 km; the integration domain covers a major part of Europe. A one-month-long run has been performed with this model on observed boundary conditions (represented by assimilations by the global model ARPEGE). It is demonstrated that no excessive error is generated and accumulated in the model during the integration; hence the model is integrable for extended time periods and may serve a basis for a development towards a regional climate model.     

山西年度地震趋势的数值预测

采用"自激励门限自回归模型"(SETAR)对山西1970年以来年度最高震级序列进行了分析计算,给出了1998年以来年度最高预测震级,结果表明,该模型对年度地震趋势预测具有良好的预测效果,这种建模方法有效,模型可信.     

Numerical Simulation of the Sensitivity of Summer Monsoon Circulation and Rainfall over India to Land Surface Processes

—The influence of soil moisture and vegetation variation on simulation of monsoon circulation and rainfall is investigated. For this purpose a simple land surface parameterization scheme is incorporated in a three-dimensional regional high resolution nested grid atmospheric model. Based on the land surface parameterization scheme, latent heat and sensible heat fluxes are explicitly estimated over the entire domain of the model. Two sensitivity studies are conducted; one with bare dry soil conditions (no latent heat flux from land surface) and the other with realistic representation of the land surface parameters such as soil moisture, vegetation cover and landuse patterns in the numerical simulation. The sensitivity of main monsoon features such as Somali jet, monsoon trough and tropical easterly jet to land surface processes are discussed.¶Results suggest the necessity of including a detailed land surface parameterization in the realistic short-range weather numerical predictions. An enhanced short-range prediction of hydrological cycle including precipitation was produced by the model, with land surface processes parameterized. This parameterization appears to simulate all the main circulation features associated with the summer monsoon in a realistic manner.     

地震预报与天气预报差异分析与思考

1 事件发生的频度不同 天气事件每天都在发生,因此,气象预测工作者每天都在实践,可以随时修订预测指标,以求获得最佳效果.而一次破坏性地震对于一个少震、弱震地区几年甚至十几年都不会发生,从而无法验证方法的有效性.     

Statistical Association between Space Weather and Meteorological Variables During Winter in the Baltic Sea Region

Geomagnetism and Aeronomy - Some authors suggest that space weather events may affect daily weather variables, such as air temperature and atmospheric pressure. Associations between space weather...     

A Simple Reclassification Method for Correcting Uncertainty in Land Use/Land Cover Data Sets Used with Land Surface Models

With increasing computational resources, environmental models are run at finer grid spacing to resolve the land surface characteristics. The land use/land cover (LULC) data sets input into land surface models are used to assign various default parameters from a look-up tables. The objective of this study is to assess the potential uncertainty in the LULC data and to present a reclassification method for improving the accuracy of LULC data sets. The study focuses on the Southern Great Plains and specifically the Walnut River Watershed in southeastern Kansas, USA. The uncertainty analysis is conducted using two data sets: The National Land Cover Dataset 1992 (NLCD 92) and the Gap Analysis Program (GAP) data set, and a reclassification logic tree. A comparison of these data sets showed that they do not agree for approximately 27% of the watershed. Moreover, an accuracy assessment of these two data sets indicated that neither had an overall accuracy as high as 80%. Using the relationships between land-surface characteristics and LULC, a reclassification of the watershed was conducted using a logical model. This model iteratively reclassified the uncertain pixels according to their surface characteristics. The model utilized normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) measurements during April and July 2003, elevation, and slope. The reclassification yielded a revised LULC dataset that was substantially improved. The overall accuracy of the revised data set was nearly 93%. The study results suggest: (i) as models adopt finer grid spacings, the uncertainty in the LULC data will become significant; (ii) assimilating NDVI into the land-surface models can reduce the uncertainty due to LULC assignment; (iii) the standard LULC data sets must be used with caution when the focus is on local scale; and (iv) reclassification is a valuable means of improving the accuracy of LULC data sets prior to applying them to local issues or phenomena.     

Numerical Models of Translational Landslide Rupture Surface Growth

—We analyze the initiation and enlargement of the rupture surface of translational landslides as a fracture phenomenon using a two-dimensional boundary-element method. Both processes are governed largely by the stress field and the pre-existing planes of weakness in a slope. Near the ground surface, the most compressive stress becomes either parallel or perpendicular to the slope, depending on the topography and regional stresses. The shear stress available to drive slope-parallel sliding in a uniform slope thus is small, and therefore pre-existing weaknesses are required in many cases for sliding. Stresses in a uniform slope favor the initiation of sliding near the slope base. Sliding can progress upslope from there in retrogressive fashion. Most slopes are not uniform and notches in a slope will concentrate stresses and generally promote sliding there. As the region of sliding at depth enlarges, the stress concentration near the edge of the area of slip will tend to rise. Stress concentrations can become sufficient to open fractures above and below a basal slide plane, in keeping with observations. If one tip of a slide plane intersects the ground surface, then stresses near the other tip can increase markedly, as can slip. Our analyses show that slope-parallel sliding along a plane at depth will cause downslope extension in the upslope half of a slide mass and shortening in the downslope half, consistent with observations. Displacement profiles that could be interpreted as rotational can result from sliding along such a plane, however careful analysis of surface deformation can be used to understand sliding at depth.     

Radiation Fog Prediction Using a Simple Numerical Model

—A simple one-dimensional numerical-analytical model was developed by Meyer and Rao (1995) to predict the onset of radiation fog. The model computes radiative cooling and turbulent diffusion of heat and vapor through the lower boundary layer and produces heat and vapor fluxes at the soil–atmosphere interface. The model is designed for Air Force forecasters who have access to a personal computer, an early evening surface observation of the dry bulb and dewpoint temperature, wind speed, the lapse rate in the upper boundary layer, and the previous 24-h precipitation amount. These initial data are used to predict the diurnal variation of the dry bulb and dewpoint temperatures at 10 m above the surface. In accordance with conventional synoptic observing practices, fog is defined as a restriction of the surface visibility generally to less than 1000 m. Fog is assumed to occur in the model predictions when the dewpoint depression falls to less than 1°C. Observations, from several Air Force bases for selected days when fog was observed to occur, were used to test the model. The present model with default parameters appears to predict the onset of fog slightly ahead of its occurrence. Better verification results are expected when site-relevant parameters are used in model predictions.     

平清湖水质变化的数值预测

Pinqing Lake, which is near Shanwei city, Guangdong Province, is a lagoon. Water flow in the lake is controlled by tide current. As area of Shanwei city expands quickly, more and more urban wastewater pours into the lake. The water quality near an outfall is bad consequently. In this paper, numerical models of 2-D horizontal time-varying flow and diffusion equations are developed. Difference methods are exployed to solve the equations. After increasing domestic and industrial loads are consided, the water quality in Pinqing Lake is predicted by using the mathematics models.     

Estimating Land Surface Evaporation: A Review of Methods Using Remotely Sensed Surface Temperature Data

This paper reviews methods for estimating evaporation from landscapes, regions and larger geographic extents, with remotely sensed surface temperatures, and highlights uncertainties and limitations associated with those estimation methods. Particular attention is given to the validation of such approaches against ground based flux measurements. An assessment of some 30 published validations shows an average root mean squared error value of about 50 W m^?2 and relative errors of 15–30%. The comparison also shows that more complex physical and analytical methods are not necessarily more accurate than empirical and statistical approaches. While some of the methods were developed for specific land covers (e.g. irrigation areas only) we also review methods developed for other disciplines, such as hydrology and meteorology, where continuous estimates in space and in time are needed, thereby focusing on physical and analytical methods as empirical methods are usually limited by in situ training data. This review also provides a discussion of temporal and spatial scaling issues associated with the use of thermal remote sensing for estimating evaporation. Improved temporal scaling procedures are required to extrapolate instantaneous estimates to daily and longer time periods and gap-filling procedures are needed when temporal scaling is affected by intermittent satellite coverage. It is also noted that analysis of multi-resolution data from different satellite/sensor systems (i.e. data fusion) will assist in the development of spatial scaling and aggregation approaches, and that several biological processes need to be better characterized in many current land surface models.     

地震预报研究的主攻方向: 动力数值预测

尽管地震预测是一个举世公认的国际性科学难题,怛在强化各种减轻地震灾害措施的同时,仍须把地震的监测和预报作为中国地震局最为重要的任务。为此,需要高举攻克地震预测难题的旗帜,打破长期以来地震预测研究徘徊不前的局面。我们必须充分认识近年来地球物理观测技术和计算机技术所取得的重大进步和发展态势,并在此基础上制定地震预测研究的发展战略。以GPS为代表的空间对地观测技术,巨型高分辨率宽频带流动地震台阵观测技术以及电磁阵列观测技术的发展趋势表明,从布网观测走向阵列观测已经成为21世纪地球物理观测研究发展的基本方向。上述高新技术和计算机数值模拟技术的发展为地震动力学研究提供了前所未有的技术基础。为此,需要积极借助数值天气预报的经验,打破经验性地震预测的局限,把研究的注意力尽快转向以动力学为基础的地震数值预报。以地震数值预报为目标的GPS阵列地壳形变连续观测,高分辨率地壳上地幔结构探测,地壳动力学,地震孕育和破裂过程的理论、模拟试验和实际观测,数据同化和计算软件的开发应成为今后研究发展的重点。现在的问题是,需要我们强化多学科,多部门的组织协调,尽早在有条件的地区开展地震动力学数值预报的科学试验和相关的理论研究。这必将极大地促进我国地震科学基础研究的发展和地震预报水平的提高。     

Effect of Catchment Land Use on Trophic State Variables of Small Water Bodies (Northern Poland)

We examined the land use impact on the water quality of small water bodies located in northern Poland. Twenty nine ponds, located in the urban area or a typical agricultural land were analyzed based on physical-chemical parameters: water temperature, conductivity, oxygen concentration, content of particulate suspended matter and chlorophyll “a”, and nutrients concentration. Additionally, to describe and compare the trophic condition of investigated small water bodies, we used the Carlson type trophic state. Performed measurements showed that nutrient concentrations significantly differentiated the agricultural ponds from urban water bodies. Mean total phosphorus and nitrogen concentration in midfield ponds were about 5 and 3 times higher, respectively, than in urban ponds. Moreover the phytoplankton chlorophyll “a” mean values were on average fivefold higher in agricultural ponds. Furthermore, urban ponds were characterized by lower values of TSI, thus lower trophy level: generally on the border of meso- and eutrophy. The agricultural ponds trophy changed from meso- to hypertrophy.     

石油勘探的气象服务

为了减少灾害性天气对野外石油勘探的不利影响,并利用气象服务辅助油气勘探工作,采用石油勘探专业气象预报服务和气象卫星协助石油勘探选区工作的方法,建立了石油勘探气象服务系统.本系统突破了传统的服务方式,为自动化的石油勘探气象服务提供了新的思路和方法,实现了对石油勘探气象服务方式的自动化.目前石油勘探的气象服务水平还很低,并且各地发展不均衡.要建立完善的石油勘探气象服务系统,重点需要做好两点工作,即加快气象服务基础建设,拓展气象服务领域.     

Space Weather Parameters: Modeling and Prediction from the Data of Groundbased Observations of Solar Activity

We consider the prospects for developing a forecast system for space weather (SPW) parameters with the use of home facilities for groundbased observations of solar activity. The space weather forecast can be conventionally divided into three components: (i) the prediction of recurrent, slowly changing events connected with the topology of the large-scale magnetic field, (ii) the estimation of fluxes of UV and high-energy radiation, and (iii) the observation of high-speed phenomena, such as solar flares and eruption processes, and the prediction of their consequences at the the Earth’s orbit. At present, to predict recurrent events, data from regular observations of the large-scale field of the Sun by the solar telescope–magnetographs for operative (realtime) prediction (STOP) are effectively used. To estimate high-energy fluxes, to register eruption events, and to estimate their geoefficiency, data from the patrol optical telescope–spectrographs may be used. Patrol telescopes operate in automatic mode and register the processes with an interval of approximately one minute. To detect eruption processes, we propose a method based on the difference between the intensity values in the wings of chromospheric spectral lines. The results of the use of the observational complex of the Kislovodsk Mountain Astronomical Station for the SW forecast are considered in the paper.     

Numerical Modeling of Ice Fog in Interior Alaska Using the Weather Research and Forecasting Model

An ice microphysics parameterization scheme has been modified to better describe and understand ice fog formation. The modeling effort is based on observations in the Sub-Arctic Region of Interior Alaska, where ice fog occurs frequently during the cold season due to abundant water vapor sources and strong inversions existing near the surface at extremely low air temperatures. The microphysical characteristics of ice fog are different from those of other ice clouds, implying that the microphysical processes of ice should be changed in order to generate ice fog particles. Ice fog microphysical characteristics were derived with the NCAR Video Ice Particle Sampler during strong ice fog cases in the vicinity of Fairbanks, Alaska, in January and February 2012. To improve the prediction of ice fog in the Weather Research and Forecasting model, observational data were used to change particle size distribution properties and gravitational settling rates, as well as to implement a homogeneous freezing process. The newly implemented homogeneous freezing process compliments the existing heterogeneous freezing scheme and generates a higher number concentration of ice crystals than the original Thompson scheme. The size distribution of ice crystals is changed into a Gamma distribution with the shape factor of 2.0, using the observed size distribution. Furthermore, gravitational settling rates are reduced for the ice crystals since the crystals in ice fog do not precipitate in a similar manner when compared to the ice crystals of cirrus clouds. The slow terminal velocity plays a role in increasing the time scale for the ice crystals to settle to the surface. Sensitivity tests contribute to understanding the effects of water vapor emissions as an anthropogenic source on the formation of ice fog.     

Land Surface Layer Characteristics During Monsoon at a Tropical Station

—The atmospheric surface layer over land may behave differently in the tropics, particu larly during the monsoon. A preliminary attempt is made to observe the behavior of surface layer characteristics such as fluxes of momentum, sensible heat and latent heat, friction velocity, friction temperature, M-O length scale, Richardson number and Bowen’s ratio over Kharagpur (22°20′N, 87°18′E), a typical moist tropical station. The diurnal and day-to-day variations have been studied. It is observed that during the active phase of the monsoon the sensible heat flux and Bowen’s ratio are low. The diurnal variation is apparent for most parameters. Mostly near neutral conditions are observed.     

Empirical and Numerical Modeling of T-phase Propagation from Ocean to Land

—?T-phase propagation from ocean onto land is investigated by comparing data from hydrophones in the water column with data from the same events recorded on island and coastal seismometers. Several events located on Hawaii and the emerging seamount Loihi generated very large amplitude T phases that were recorded at both the preliminary IMS hydrophone station at Point Sur and land-based stations along the northern California coast. We use data from seismic stations operated by U. C. Berkeley along the coast of California, and from the PG&;E coastal California seismic network, to estimate the T-phase transfer functions. The transfer function and predicted signal from the Loihi events are modeled with a composite technique, using normal mode-based numerical propagation codes to calculate the hydroacoustic pressure field and an elastic finite difference code to calculate the seismic propagation to la nd-based stations. The modal code is used to calculate the acoustic pressure and particle velocity fields in the ocean off the California coast, which is used as input to the finite difference code TRES to model propagation onto land. We find both empirically and in the calculations that T phases observed near the conversion point consist primarily of surface waves, although the T phases propagate as P waves after the surface waves attenuate. Surface wave conversion occurs farther offshore and over a longer region than body wave conversion, which has the effect that surface waves may arrive at coastal stations before body waves. We also look at the nature of T phases after conversion from ocean to land by examining far inland T phases. We find that T phases propagate primarily as P waves once they are well inland from the coast, and can be observed in some cases hundreds of kilometers inland. T-phase conversion at tenuates higher frequencies, however we find that high frequency energy from underwater explosion sources can still be observed at T-phase stations.     

Verification of an ENSO-Based Long-Range Prediction of Anomalous Weather Conditions During the Vancouver 2010 Olympics and Paralympics

A brief review of the anomalous weather conditions during the Vancouver 2010 Winter Olympic and Paralympic Games and the efforts to predict these anomalies based on some preceding El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) signals are presented. It is shown that the Olympic Games were held under extraordinarily warm conditions in February 2010, with monthly mean temperature anomalies of +2.2 °C in Vancouver and +2.8 °C in Whistler, ranking respectively as the highest and the second highest in the past 30 years (1981–2010). The warm conditions continued, but became less anomalous, in March 2010 for the Paralympic Games. While the precipitation amounts in the area remained near normal through this winter, the lack of snow due to warm conditions created numerous media headlines and practical problems for the alpine competitions. A statistical model was developed on the premise that February and March temperatures in the Vancouver area could be predicted using an ENSO signal with considerable lead time. This model successfully predicted the warmer-than-normal, lower-snowfall conditions for the Vancouver 2010 Winter Olympics and Paralympics.