Flammability risk assessment for oil spill response operations

Immediately following a spill at sea, released oil—ranging from diesel to light crude and diluted bitumen, will initially weather through evaporation, resulting in an elevated concentration of light hydrocarbons in the air. As part of oil spill response operations, first responders use hand-held devices to monitor airborne concentrations when approaching a spill. The feasibility of using numerical modelling as an additional tool to assess potential flammability and plan response operations in the spill area was explored in this study. The Lower Explosive Limit(LEL) is defined as the minimum concentration of a gas in air, in this case a mixture of evaporated hydrocarbons, which can produce a flash fire in the presence of an ignition source. This ignition source could be triggered by the vessel itself or by spill response operations. A framework was put into place, utilizing a threedimensional hydrodynamic model(H3D), an oil spill model(SPILLCALC), and an air dispersion model(CALPUFF) to assess the risk of possible ignition of the hydrocarbon vapour in the event of a spill. The study looked at a hypothetical credible worst case tanker spill(16 500 m~3) of diluted bitumen(cold lake winter blend)occurring at Arachne Reef in Haro Strait, British Columbia, Canada. SPILLCALC provided one-minute averaged vapour fluxes from the water surface for each of 17 modelled pseudo-components which were used as inputs to CALPUFF. Using the predicted airborne concentrations of each pseudo-component, time-scaled to one-second averages, the flammability potential in the immediate spill area was determined at each grid point using Le Chatelier's mixing equation. The approach describe here was developed as a proof of concept, and could be established as a real-time system, bringing valuable information in addition to hand-held devices during a spill response, or during a response exercise. This modelling study was conducted as part of Kinder Morgan's Trans Mountain Pipeline Expansion Project. There are a number of commercially available oil spill models but few if any are equipped with the ability to model air dispersion and forecast hazardous conditions as discussed in this paper.     

Utilization of geoindicators for rapid assessment of coastal-hazard risk and mitigation

Geoindicators provide a management tool for rapid assessment of natural hazard risk potential, either as a supplement to long-term environmental auditing and monitoring, or for initial coastal assessment as in developing countries. Using examples of barrier island and bluffed coasts, indicators of process/response are examined regionally, locally, and site-specifically; the latter being the primary indicators of property-threatening hazards. Tabled evaluation parameters range from general (elevation and vegetation) to specific characteristics such as shoreline stability and configuration, inlet proximity, and barrier-island interior geomorphology. Geoindicators also provide guidance for local mitigation of hazard impacts. A case study of Bogue Banks, North Carolina, shows that the geoindicators approach is applicable to communities with extant management plans. Bogue Banks’ five communities must reevaluate mitigation strategies after every storm and because of changes induced through development. By applying the geoindicators approach, shoreline reaches as well as interior areas may be reassigned as to the level of risk, and appropriate mitigation actions taken.     

海底管道出露悬空环境风险的定量评价研究

海底管道是海洋油气输送的主要方式,其运行状况直接关系到海上油气田的安全和海洋生态环境的质量。本文先以海底管道出露悬空作为故障树的顶事件,分析出海洋环境中各项基本事件,构建针对海洋环境的海底管道故障树模型;再以灰色模糊识别为理论基础,量化对海底管道安全有影响的海洋环境因素,并以层次分析法对每个风险因素进行分级赋权,确定评价指标范围和权重,进而构建海洋环境条件的海底管道风险评价体系。利用该体系对平湖油气田海底管道4个区段进行环境风险评价,避免了将整段管道一同评价导致的信息均等化,评价结果不能真实反映风险等级高的区段的情况;评价结果与管道2014~2016年现场检测数据对比,两者均显示P2分区中海底管道的风险等级较高,说明了该模型具有一定的合理性和实用性。     

Arctic versus temperate comparison of risk assessment metrics for 2-methyl-naphthalene

Reliable risk assessment approaches for Arctic environments are requested to manage potential impacts associated with increased activities in Arctic regions. We performed toxicity tests on Arctic and temperate species exposed to the narcotic acting oil component, 2-methyl naphthalene. The experimental results were used to quantify concentration causing lethality to 50% of exposed individuals and no-effect concentration (individual level). For estimates at community level, the hazardous concentrations affecting 5% and 50% of the species were calculated from sensitivity distribution curves. These survival metrics were then used to elucidate whether temperate toxicity data used in risk assessment are sufficiently representative for the Arctic. Taking data uncertainty into consideration, we found no regional difference in tolerances to 2-methyl naphthalene either at the species level or at the community level. Hence these data support a conclusion that values of survival metrics for temperate regions are transferrable to the Arctic for the chemical 2-methyl naphthalene, as long as extrapolation techniques are properly applied and uncertainties are taken into consideration.     

Mississippi River delta mudslides: techniques allow for continued development with reduced risk

The Mississippi River delta environment provides all the necessary ingredients to make sediment instability a critical geohazard to be dealt with in a productive oil and gas region. Some of the early development has encountered problems with the unstable sediments as pipelines have been ruptured and platform foundations have been damaged. From experience and surveys, the government agencies and industry involved on the continental shelf are aware of the nature of instability, mechanism of movement, rate of movement and structural failure that can result, and are applying that knowledge to oil and gas exploration, development and to leasing and permitting.     

东山岛景观生态风险评价

以东山岛为例进行了景观生态风险评价理论和方法的探讨.针对东山岛主要生态风险源干旱、台风风沙、污染、水土流失可能对东山生态系统造成的损害,提出了度量生态损失与生态风险的指标与公式,并运用遥感资料、历史记录、调查数据和地理信息系统(GIS)技术,完成了区域景观生态风险综合评价,在此基础上提出东山的区域生态风险管理对策.     

A decision-making system to maritime risk assessment

In this study, we propose a fuzzy approach in order to evaluate the maritime risk assessment applied to safety at sea and more particularly, the pollution prevention on the open sea. The work is based on the decision-making system, named MARISA, presented in Balmat et al. (2009). This system allowed defining a risk factor for each ship according to ship’s characteristics and weather conditions. In this novel paper, the proposed system takes into account the ship speed evolution and the ship position with respect to maritime shipping lanes is developed. To validate the method, we present an example of results with real data.     

A geomorphological mapping approach for the assessment of seabed geohazards and risk

Exploration and development of offshore hydrocarbon resources has advanced into remote deepwater regions over the last decade and poses significant technical challenges for the design and installation of wells and facilities at extreme water depths. Seafloor and shallow subsurface processes and conditions in these areas are complex and generally poorly understood, and the geohazards to development are larger scale and fundamentally different to those encountered onshore; consequently the geohazard risk to deepwater development projects is potentially significant and requires careful evaluation and mitigation during the front-end planning and engineering design stages of projects. There are no established industry standards or methods for the assessment of geohazards and engineering-quality geophysical data at the scale of development. The paper describes an integrated and systematic map-based approach for the assessment and mitigation of seabed geohazards and risk to proposed deepwater development. The approach employs a multi-disciplinary team working with engineering-quality field calibrated data to accurately map and assess seafloor ground conditions and ensure that development proposals are not exposed to intolerable geohazard risk. The approach taken is very similar to the practice of establishing geological models for land-based engineering projects, in which the complete geological history of the site is used to characterise and predict the performance of the ground. Such an approach is routine for major projects on land but so far does not seem to be common practice in the offshore industry. The paper illustrates the seafloor geomophological mapping approach developed. The products are being used to optimise development layouts to avoid geohazards where possible and to support site-specific engineering design of facilities based on a detailed understanding of the potential geohazard loadings and associated risk.     

海洋钻井平台购置项目经济风险评估

以某海洋钻井公司购置自升式深水钻井平台为例，建立了海洋平台购置项目经济风险评估的综合概率模型。考虑未来的平台购置价格、作业租金、年营运天数、年维修费、日耗油量、还贷资金利率等多种因素的影响，对项目投资的经济评价指标进行了风险计算。通过主要参数的灵敏度分析，使得决策指标更趋于客观实际。     

海堤安全风险评估技术研究

我国现行规范体系中,关于堤防工程安全标准的确定,主要根据工程级别确定设计重现期,从而选定工程设计参数。文中提出了依据安全风险评估的结果确定海堤安全风险等级方法。首先,通过对海堤灾害进行风险识别和分析,将洪水灾害和海堤结构自身安全失效作为海堤灾害两种主要形式,建立了海堤灾害故障树。然后,将水文动力条件作为随机变量,从频率分布角度定量计算海堤洪水灾害风险程度和结构安全失效风险,提出了海堤安全风险评价方法。最后,依据规范中关于海堤等级和重现期标准的规定,结合海堤洪灾安全风险和结构自身安全风险的评价结果,确定海堤安全风险等级。文中提出的海堤安全评价技术依据海堤风险定量计算结果,从海堤现状条件满足其设计功能目标有效程度,判定海堤安全等级的级别,是一种相对较新且更科学的方法。该海堤安全风险评估技术为海堤管理和建设提供科学支撑。     

Stock assessment and risk in South African fisheries

Generally, South Africa's domestic fisheries contend with high levels of risk. The major sectors of the domestic industry face a capital replacement crisis that renders them particularly vulnerable at this stage in their development. Considering that the main pressures arise from a dearth of suitable information on which to base business decisions, the scientific community is able to make a very real contribution. Unfortunately, the information gap is not usually bridged, because it is not generally perceived that data collected within the rigorous academic tradition in which the scientific community operates is well in excess of the accuracy and predictive power sufficient for the commercial sector.     

Compliance monitoring in a regional context: revising seafood tissue monitoring for risk assessment

Seafood tissue monitoring in Santa Monica Bay, CA, for regulatory compliance has provided information about contamination around major wastewater outfalls, but has not been useful in health management. It has not always focused on species caught by sport fishing, or on key sport fishing areas. Separate programs were uncoordinated, using distinct sampling patterns to collect different species. Most importantly, monitoring was not designed to feed information into a formal health management process. The Santa Monica Bay Restoration Project oversaw the development of a regionally coordinated monitoring program. It stressed that monitoring should support risk-based health management decision making by California EPA. This led to fundamental changes in the existing compliance-based monitoring design. We describe these and examine the features of the management system that both allowed for and supported an unusual degree of change in long-standing compliance monitoring programs.     

河口型水源地供水安全风险分类评估方法比选研究

为科学评估河口型水源地供水安全风险,基于水源地特点,在建立相应供水安全风险评估指标体系的基础上,采用层次分析法确定指标权重,结合选取灰色关联度法和BP神经网络法对某河口型水源地分别开展供水安全风险分类评估。以某次咸潮入侵事件数据为例,经采用两种方法评估后对比表明:灰色关联度法能较好地解决评价指标难以准确量化和统计的问题,具有定性与定量相结合评价精度较高的优点,更适合于河口型水源地供水安全风险分类评估。该水源地风险分类评价等级由高到低依次排序:水量风险(较高)→应急风险(较低)→工程风险(较低)→水质风险(低),其结果与实际相符。     

基于加权贝叶斯网络的海洋灾害风险评估

全球气候变化背景下,海洋灾害的群发性、难以预见性和灾害链效应日显突出,造成的损失逐年上升,开展海洋灾害的风险评估工作至关重要。针对海洋灾害评估中的不确定问题,本文首先基于风险理论剖析了海洋灾害风险的不确定性特征,构建了灾害评估指标体系;然后基于贝叶斯网络模型,提出针对不确定性灾害评估的风险贝叶斯网络,进而基于主客观定权,构建了加权贝叶斯网络评估模型;最后对我国沿海地区海洋灾害开展评估研究。实验表明,该评估模型有效实现海洋灾害的风险评估,具有实际可操作性。     

Coastal erosion risk assessment of Hainan Island,China

Coastal erosion on islands is increasing due to sea level rise, frequent extreme events, and anthropogenic activities. However, studies on the multifactorial coastal erosion risk and the vulnerability of islands are limited. In this study, the Coastal Erosion Risk Assessment(CERA) method was applied for the first time to the study area in China to assess the erosion risk on the coast of Hainan Island; to explore the effects of coastal ocean dynamics,sediment movement characteristics, and anthrop...     

An environmental assessment in the Strait of Sicily: measurementand analysis techniques for determining bottom and oceanographicproperties

In October 1997, the EnVerse 97 shallow-water acoustic experiments were jointly conducted by SACLANT Centre, TNO-FEL, and DERA off the coast of Sicily, Italy. The primary goal of the experiments was to determine the sea-bed properties through inversion of acoustic data. Using a towed source, the inversion method is tested at different source/receiver separations in an area with a range-dependent bottom. The sources transmitted over a broadband of frequencies (90-600 Hz) and the signals were measured on a vertical array of hydrophones. The acoustic data were continuously collected as the range between the source and receiving array varied from 0.5 to 6 km. An extensive seismic survey was conducted along the track providing supporting information about the layered structure of the bottom as well as layer compressional sound speeds. The oceanic conditions were assessed using current meters, satellite remote sensing, wave height measurements, and casts for determining conductivity and temperature as a function of water depth. Geoacoustic inversion results taken at different source/receiver ranges show sea-bed properties consistent with the range-dependent features observed in the seismic survey data. These results indicate that shallow-water bottom properties may be estimated over large areas using a towed source fixed receiver configuration