Tropospheric lapse rate and its relation to surface temperature from reanalysis data

Estimates of the tropospheric lapse rate γ and analysis of its relation to the surface temperature T _s in the annual cycle and interannual variability have been made using the global monthly mean data of the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis (1948–2001). The tropospheric lapse rate γ is about 6.1 K/km in the Northern Hemisphere (NH) as a whole and over the ocean and about 6.2 K/km over the continents. The value of γ decreases from 6.5 K/km at low latitudes to 4.5 K/km at polar latitudes. The values of dγ/dT _s, the parameter of sensitivity of γ to the variation of T _s for the NH in the interannual variability, are found to be about 0.04 km^?1 (0.041 km^?1 for the NH as a whole, 0.042 km^?1 over the ocean, and 0.038 km^?1 over the continents). This corresponds to an increase in γ of approximately 0.7% when the surface temperature of the NH is increased by 1 K. Estimates of dγ/dT _s vary from about 0.05 km^?1 in the subtropics to 0.10 km^?1 at polar latitudes. When dγ/dT _s is positive, the surface and tropospheric warming means a temperature decrease above a certain critical level H _cr. The height of the level H _cr with constant temperature, which is defined by the inverse value (dγ/dT _s)^?1, is about 25 km for the NH as a whole, i.e., above the tropopause. In the subtropics, H _cr is about 20 km. At polar latitudes, H _cr decreases to about 10 km. Positive values of dγ/dT _s characterize a positive climatic feedback through the lapse rate and indicate a general decrease in the static stability of the troposphere during global warming. Along with a general tendency of γ to increase with rising T _s, there are regional regimes with the opposite tendency, mainly over the ocean. The negative correlation of γ with T _s is found over the oceanic tropics and midlatitudes, in particular, over the oceanic belt around Antarctica.     

Thickness of the mixed bottom layer in the Northern Atlantic

The thickness of the mixed bottom boundary layer (BBL) has been analyzed based on the CTD data at transoceanic sections in abyssal waters of the Northern Atlantic. The measurements were carried out at two transoceanic sections approximately along 48° N (ASV-99) and 5° N (AI-2000) in 1999 and 2000. These data, and the WOCE data obtained at four zonal sections (AR7E and AR12 along 57° N, AR01 along 24.5° S, and A06 along 7.5° N), were used for the calculation of the statistical characteristics of the BBL??s thickness H _B . The probability distribution function F(H _B ) was close to lognormal. The mean value ??H _B ?? at different latitudes was in the range from 30 to 60 m. The averaged BBL thickness = 46.1 m. The BBL??s thickness was about 1% of the ocean??s depth D; the ratio H _B /D was the minimum (0.8%) near the equator and increased up to 1.6% in the polar latitudes.     

Stochastic study of the temperature response of the upper ocean to uncertainties in the atmospheric forcing in an Atlantic OGCM

The impact of errors in atmospheric forcing on the behaviour of ocean models is a fundamental issue for ocean modellers and data assimilation and one that has yet to be fully addressed. In this study, we use a stochastic modelling approach with 50 7-months (September–March) primitive equation eddy permitting (1/4°) integrations. We investigate the response of the oceanic circulation to atmospheric uncertainties, focusing principally on their impact on the upper oceanic temperature field. The ensemble is generated by perturbing the wind, atmospheric temperature and incoming solar radiation of the ERA40 reanalysis. Each perturbation consists of a random combination of the 20 dominant EOFs of the difference between the ERA40 and NCEP/CORE reanalysis datasets. The ensemble standard deviation of various interfacial and oceanic quantities is then examined in the upper 200 m of three distinct regions of the North Atlantic: in the Gulf Stream, in the Northern Tropical band and in the North East Atlantic. These show that even a very small perturbation of the atmospheric variables can lead to significant changes in the ocean properties and that regions of oceanic mesoscale activity are the most sensitive. The ocean response is driven by vertical diffusivity and eddy activity. The role of subsurface currents is also crucial in carrying the eddy signal away from the regions of mesoscale activity. Finally, the decorrelation time scale of the mesoscale activity is critical in determining the amplitude of the oceanic response.     

Origin of freshwater and polynya water in the Arctic Ocean halocline in summer 2007

Extremely low summer sea-ice coverage in the Arctic Ocean in 2007 allowed extensive sampling and a wide quasi-synoptic hydrographic and δ¹⁸O dataset could be collected in the Eurasian Basin and the Makarov Basin up to the Alpha Ridge and the East Siberian continental margin. With the aim of determining the origin of freshwater in the halocline, fractions of river water and sea-ice meltwater in the upper 150 m were quantified by a combination of salinity and δ¹⁸O in the Eurasian Basin. Two methods, applying the preformed phosphate concentration (PO^*) and the nitrate-to-phosphate ratio (N/P), were compared to further differentiate the marine fraction into Atlantic and Pacific-derived contributions. While PO^*-based assessments systematically underestimate the contribution of Pacific-derived waters, N/P-based calculations overestimate Pacific-derived waters within the Transpolar Drift due to denitrification in bottom sediments at the Laptev Sea continental margin.Within the Eurasian Basin a west to east oriented front between net melting and production of sea-ice is observed. Outside the Atlantic regime dominated by net sea-ice melting, a pronounced layer influenced by brines released during sea-ice formation is present at about 30–50 m water depth with a maximum over the Lomonosov Ridge. The geographically distinct definition of this maximum demonstrates the rapid release and transport of signals from the shelf regions in discrete pulses within the Transpolar Drift.The ratio of sea-ice derived brine influence and river water is roughly constant within each layer of the Arctic Ocean halocline. The correlation between brine influence and river water reveals two clusters that can be assigned to the two main mechanisms of sea-ice formation within the Arctic Ocean. Over the open ocean or in polynyas at the continental slope where relatively small amounts of river water are found, sea-ice formation results in a linear correlation between brine influence and river water at salinities of about 32–34. In coastal polynyas in the shallow regions of the Laptev Sea and southern Kara Sea, sea-ice formation transports river water into the shelf’s bottom layer due to the close proximity to the river mouths. This process therefore results in waters that form a second linear correlation between brine influence and river water at salinities of about 30–32. Our study indicates which layers of the Arctic Ocean halocline are primarily influenced by sea-ice formation in coastal polynyas and which layers are primarily influenced by sea-ice formation over the open ocean. Accordingly we use the ratio of sea-ice derived brine influence and river water to link the maximum in brine influence within the Transpolar Drift with a pulse of shelf waters from the Laptev Sea that was likely released in summer 2005.     

Estimating the efficiency of mitigating and preventing global warming with scenarios of controlled aerosol emissions into the stratosphere

Ensemble numerical experiments with the climate model of intermediate complexity developed at the A.M. Obukhov Institute of Atmospheric Physics of the Russian Academy of Sciences (IAP RAS CM) are conducted to estimate the efficiency of controlled climate forcing (geoengineering) due to stratospheric sulfate aerosol (SSA) emissions in order to compensate for global warming under the SRES A1B anthropogenic emission scenario. Full (or even excessive) compensation for the expected anthropogenic warming in the model is possible with sufficiently intense geoengineering. For ensemble members with values of the governing parameters corresponding to those obtained for the Mt. Pinatubo eruption, global warming is reduced by no more than 0.46 K in the second half of the 21st century, with a residual rise in the global surface temperature T _g comparative to 1961–1990 of 1.0–1.2 K by 2050 and 1.9–2.2 K by 2100. The largest reduction in global warming (with the other parameters of the numerical experiment being equal) is found not for a meridional distribution of SSA concentration peaked at low latitudes (despite the largest (in magnitude) global compensation instantaneous radiative forcing), but for a uniform horizontal aerosol distribution and for a distribution with the SSA concentration maximum in the middle and subpolar latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere. The efficiency of geoengineering in terms of T _g in the second half of the 21st century between the most efficient and the least efficient meridional distributions of stratospheric aerosols differs by as much as one-third, depending on the values of other governing parameters. For meridional distributions of SSA concentration, which produce the largest deceleration of global warming, such a deceleration is regionally most pronounced over high- and subpolarlatitude land areas and in the Arctic. In particular, this is expressed in the smallest reduction in the sea-ice extent and permafrost area under climate warming in the model. The compensation forcing also decelerates a general increase in global annual precipitation P _g during warming. The relative deceleration in precipitation increase is most pronounced in land regions outside the tropics, where a significant deficit in precipitation is currently observed. After the theoretical completion of geoengineering in the first or second decade, its temperature effect vanishes with an abrupt acceleration of global and regional surface warming. For individual members of the ensemble experiment, the global temperature change in this period is five times as large as that in the experiment without geoengineering and ten times as large regionally (in northeastern Siberia).     

Validating and assessing the sensitivity of the climate model with an ocean general circulation model developed at the Institute of Atmospheric Physics,Russian Academy of Sciences

A new version of the Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Russian Academy of Sciences (IAP RAS), climate model (CM) has been developed using an ocean general circulation model instead of the statistical-dynamical ocean model applied in the previous version. The spatial resolution of the new ocean model is 3° in latitude and 5° in longitude, with 25 unevenly spaced vertical levels. In the previous version of the oceanic model, as in the atmospheric model, the horizontal resolution was 4.5° in latitude and 6° in longitude, with four vertical levels (the upper quasi-homogeneous layer, seasonal thermocline, abyssal ocean, and bottom friction layer). There is no correction for the heat and momentum fluxes between the atmosphere and ocean in the new version of the IAP RAS CM. Numerical experiments with the IAP RAS CM have been performed under current initial and boundary conditions, as well as with an increasing concentration of atmospheric carbon dioxide. The main simulated atmospheric and oceanic fields agree quite well with observational data. The new version’s equilibrium temperature sensitivity to atmospheric CO₂ doubling was found to be 2.9 K. This value lies in the mid-range of estimates (2–4.5 K) obtained from simulations with state-of-the-art models of different complexities.     

Note on the CO2 air–sea gas exchange at high temperatures

The temperature dependency of ocean–atmosphere gas transfer velocities is commonly estimated in terms of Schmidt numbers, i.e. the ratio of kinematic viscosity to diffusivity. In numerical models least square regressions are used to fit the limited number of experimentally derived Schmidt numbers to a function of temperature. For CO₂ a well established fit can be found in the literature. This fit constitutes an integral part in standardized carbon cycle simulation projects (e.g. C4MIP, OC4MIP, Friedlingstein et al., 2006). However, the fit is valid only in the range where diffusivity measurements exist, i.e., from 0 to about 30 °C. In many climate warming simulations like e.g. the MPI contribution to the fourth Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Assessment Report (IPCC AR 4), sea surface temperatures largely exceed the validated range and approach or even reach the range, where the standard fits leave the physically meaningful range. Thus, this paper underlines the demand for new measurements of seawater diffusivities for CO₂ and other trace gases especially for the temperature range >30 °C.In this paper we provide improved fits for the temperature dependence of the Schmidt number. For carbon dioxide our fit is compared to the established fit under identical climate change simulations carried out with the 3D-carbon cycle model HAMOCC. We find that in many tropical and subtropical high temperature regions the established fit leads to unrealistically short adaption times of the surface water pCO₂ to altered atmospheric pCO₂. In regions where the local oceanic pCO₂ is not primarily controlled by the atmospheric boundary pCO₂ but by other processes such as biological activity, the atmosphere ocean pCO₂ gradient is clearly underestimated when using the established fit. The effect on global oceanic carbon uptake in a greenhouse world is rather small and the potential climate feedback introduced by this bias seems to be negligible. However, the bias will clearly gain in significance the more regions warm up to over 30 °C. On a regional scale, especially in coastal regions at low latitudes, the effect is not negligible and a different steady state is approached.     

Changes in climatic characteristics of Northern Hemisphere extratropical land in the 21st century: Assessments with the IAP RAS climate model

Assessments of future changes in the climate of Northern Hemisphere extratropical land regions have been made with the IAP RAS climate model (CM) of intermediate complexity (which includes a detailed scheme of thermo- and hydrophysical soil processes) under prescribed greenhouse and sulfate anthropogenic forcing from observational data for the 19th and 20th centuries and from the SRES B1, A1B, and A2 scenarios for the 21st century. The annual mean warming of the extratropical land surface has been found to reach 2–5 K (3–10 K) by the middle (end) of the 21st century relative to 1961–1990, depending on the anthropogenic forcing scenario, with larger values in North America than in Europe. Winter warming is greater than summer warming. This is expressed in a decrease of 1–4 K (or more) in the amplitude of the annual harmonic of soil-surface temperature in the middle and high latitudes of Eurasia and North America. The total area extent of perennially frozen ground S _p in the IAP RAS CM changes only slightly until the late 20th century, reaching about 21 million km², and then decreases to 11–12 million km² in 2036–2065 and 4–8 million km² in 2071–2100. In the late 21st century, near-surface permafrost is expected to remain only in Tibet and in central and eastern Siberia. In these regions, depths of seasonal thaw exceed 1 m (2 m) under the SRES B1 (A1B or A2) scenario. The total land area with seasonal thaw or cooling is expected to decrease from the current value of 54–55 million km² to 38–42 in the late 21st century. The area of Northern Hemisphere snow cover in February is also reduced from the current value of 45–49 million km² to 31–37 million km². For the basins of major rivers in the extratropical latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere, runoff is expected to increase in central and eastern Siberia. In European Russia and in southern Europe, runoff is projected to decrease. In western Siberia (the Ob watershed), runoff would increase under the SRES A1B and A2 scenarios until the 2050s–2070s, then it would decrease to values close to present-day ones; under the anthropogenic forcing scenario SRES B1, the increase in runoff will continue up to the late 21st century. Total runoff from Eurasian rivers into the Arctic Ocean in the IAP RAS CM in the 21st century will increase by 8–9% depending on the scenario. Runoff from the North American rivers into the Arctic Ocean has not changed much throughout numerical experiments with the IAP RAS CM.     

High-resolution IP<Subscript>25</Subscript>-based reconstruction of sea-ice variability in the western North Pacific and Bering Sea during the past 18,000 years

Due to its strong influence on heat and moisture exchange between the ocean and the atmosphere, sea ice is an essential component of the global climate system. In the context of its alarming decrease in terms of concentration, thickness and duration, understanding the processes controlling sea-ice variability and reconstructing paleo-sea-ice extent in polar regions have become of great interest for the scientific community. In this study, for the first time, IP₂₅, a recently developed biomarker sea-ice proxy, was used for a high-resolution reconstruction of the sea-ice extent and its variability in the western North Pacific and western Bering Sea during the past 18,000 years. To identify mechanisms controlling the sea-ice variability, IP₂₅ data were associated with published sea-surface temperature as well as diatom and biogenic opal data. The results indicate that a seasonal sea-ice cover existed during cold periods (Heinrich Stadial 1 and Younger Dryas), whereas during warmer intervals (Bølling-Allerød and Holocene) reduced sea ice or ice-free conditions prevailed in the study area. The variability in sea-ice extent seems to be linked to climate anomalies and sea-level changes controlling the oceanographic circulation between the subarctic Pacific and the Bering Sea, especially the Alaskan Stream injection though the Aleutian passes.     

Experimental investigation on the flow induced vibration of an equilateral triangle prism in water

A series of flow induced vibration (FIV) experiments for an equilateral triangle prism elastically mounted in a water channel are performed with different system stiffness at constant damping and mass. An amplitude variation coefficient is proposed to describe FIV stationarity in the present study. The FIV of the prism can be divided into three primary regions based on the amplitude and frequency responses, which are the vortex induced vibration (VIV) branch, the transition branch from VIV to galloping, and the galloping branch. The transition branch occurs at the reduced velocity in the range of 7.8 < U_r = U/(f_n,air·D) < 10.4, accompanied with a relatively rapid increase in amplitude and a precipitous drop in frequency and vibration stationarity. In addition, the reduced velocity where the transition region is initiated is independent of the system stiffness. The maximum amplitude reaches 3.17 D in the galloping branch. The ratio of the response frequency to the natural frequency of the prism in air remains locked to approximately 0.65 throughout the fully developed galloping branch. Large amplitude responses in an infinite range of flow velocities, excellent vibration stationarity and steady vibration frequencies, which are characteristics of the galloping of the prism, have a positive impact on improving energy conversion.     

Improving estuarine net flux estimates for dissolved cadmium export at the annual timescale: Application to the Gironde Estuary

Dissolved Cd (Cd_D) concentrations along the salinity gradient were measured in surface water of the Gironde Estuary during 15 cruises (2001–2007), covering a wide range of contrasting situations in terms of hydrology, turbidity and season. During all situations dissolved Cd concentrations displayed maximum values in the mid-salinity range, reflecting Cd addition by chloride-induced desorption and complexation. The daily net Cd_D fluxes from the Gironde Estuary to the coastal ocean were estimated using Boyle's method. Extrapolating Cd_D concentrations in the high salinity range to the freshwater end member using a theoretical dilution line produced 15 theoretical Cd concentrations (Cd_D⁰), each representative of one distinct situation. The obtained Cd_D⁰ concentrations were relatively similar (201 ± 28 ng L⁻¹) when freshwater discharge Q was >500 m³ s⁻¹ (508 ≤ Q ≤ 2600 m³ s⁻¹), but were highly variable (340 ± 80 ng L⁻¹; 247–490 ng L⁻¹) for low discharge situations (169 ≤ Q ≤ 368 m³ s⁻¹). The respective daily Cd_D net fluxes were 5–39 kg day⁻¹, mainly depending on freshwater discharge. As this observation invalidates the existing method of estimating annual Cd_D net fluxes, we proposed an empirical model, using representative Cd_D⁰ values and daily freshwater discharges for the 2001–2007 period. Subsequent integration produced reliable Cd_D net flux estimates for the Gironde Estuary at the annual timescale that ranged between 3.8–5.0 t a⁻¹ in 2005 and 6.0–7.2 t a⁻¹ in 2004, depending on freshwater discharge. Comparing Cd_D net fluxes with the incoming Cd_D fluxes suggested that the annual net Cd_D addition in the Gironde Estuary ranged from 3.5 to 6.7 t a⁻¹, without any clear temporal trend during the past seven years. The annual Cd_D net fluxes did not show a clearly decreasing trend in spite of an overall decrease by a factor 6 in Cd gross fluxes during the past decade. Furthermore, in six years out of seven (except 2003), the annual Cd_D net fluxes even exceeded river borne total (dissolved + particulate) gross Cd fluxes into the estuary. These observations were attributed to progressive Cd desorption from both suspended particles and bottom sediment during various sedimentation–resuspension cycles induced by tidal currents and/or continuous dredging (navigation channel) and diverse intra-estuarine sources (wet deposition, urban sources, and agriculture). Provided that gross fluxes remain stable over time, dissolved Cd exportation from the Gironde Estuary to the coastal ocean may remain at the present level for the coming decade and the estuarine sedimentary Cd stock is forecast to decrease slowly.     

A lateral global buckling failure envelope for a high temperature and high pressure (HT/HP) submarine pipeline

Submarine pipelines are the primary component of an offshore oil transportation system. Under operating conditions, a pipeline is subjected to high temperatures and pressures to improve oil mobility. As a result, additional stress accumulates in pipeline sections, which causes global buckling. For an exposed deep-water pipeline, lateral buckling is the major form of this global buckling. Large lateral displacement causes a very high bending moment which may lead to a local buckling failure in the pipe cross-section. This paper proposes a lateral global buckling failure envelope for deep-water HT/HP pipelines using a numerical simulation analysis. It analyzes the factors influencing the envelope, including the thickness t, diameter D, soil resistance coefficient μ, calculating length L_f, imperfection length L and imperfection amplitude V. Equations to calculate the failure envelope are established to make future post-buckling pipeline failure assessment more convenient. The results show that (1) the limit pressure difference p_max (the failure pressure difference for a post-buckling pipeline when it suffers no difference in temperature) is usually below the burst pressure difference p_b (which is the largest pressure difference a pipeline can bear and is determined from the strength and sectional dimensions of the pipeline) and is approximately 0.62–0.75 times the value of p_b and (2) thickness t has little influence on the normalized envelopes, but affects p_max. The diameter D, soil resistance coefficient μ, and calculating length L_f influence the maximum failure temperature difference T_max (the failure temperature difference for a pipeline suffering no pressure difference). The diameter D also significantly affects the form of the normalized envelope.     

Joint modelling of extreme ocean environments incorporating covariate effects

Characterising the joint distribution of extremes of ocean environmental variables such as significant wave height (H_S) and spectral peak period (T_P) is important for understanding extreme ocean environments and in the design and assessment of marine and coastal structures. Many applications of multivariate extreme value analysis adopt models that assume a particular form of extremal dependence between variables without justification. Models are also typically restricted to joint regions in which all variables are extreme, but regions where only a subset of variables is extreme can be equally important for design. The conditional extremes model of Heffernan and Tawn (2004) provides one approach to overcoming these difficulties.Here, we extend the conditional extremes model to incorporate covariate effects in all of threshold selection, marginal and dependence modelling. Quantile regression is used to select appropriate covariate-dependent extreme value thresholds. Marginal and dependence modelling of extremes is performed within a penalised likelihood framework, using a Fourier parameterisation of marginal and dependence model parameters, with cross-validation to estimate suitable model parameter roughness, and bootstrapping to estimate parameter uncertainty with respect to covariate.We illustrate the approach in application to joint modelling of storm peak H_S and T_P at a Northern North Sea location with storm direction as covariate. We evaluate the impact of incorporating directional effects on estimates for return values, including those of a structure variable, similar to the structural response of a floating structure. We believe the approach offers the ocean engineer a straightforward procedure, based on sound statistics, to incorporate covariate effects in estimation of joint extreme environmental conditions.     

Joint modelling of wave spectral parameters for extreme sea states

Characterising the dependence between extremes of wave spectral parameters such as significant wave height (H_S) and spectral peak period (T_P) is important in understanding extreme ocean environments and in the design and assessment of marine structures. For example, it is known that mean values of wave periods tend to increase with increasing storm intensity. Here we seek to characterise joint dependence in a straightforward manner, accessible to the ocean engineering community, using a statistically sound approach.Many methods of multivariate extreme value analyses are based on models which assume implicitly that in some joint tail region each parameter is either independent of or asymptotically dependent on other parameters; yet in reality the dependence structure in general is neither of these. The underpinning assumption of multivariate regular variation restricts these methods to estimation of joint regions in which all parameters are extreme; but regions where only a subset of parameters are extreme can be equally important for design. The conditional approach of Heffernan and Tawn (2004), similar in spirit to that of Haver (1985) but with better theoretical foundation, overcomes these difficulties.We use the conditional approach to characterise the dependence structure of H_S and T_P. The key elements of the procedure are: (1) marginal modelling for all parameters, (2) transformation of data to a common standard Gumbel marginal form, (3) modelling dependence between data for extremes of pairs of parameters using a form of regression, (4) simulation of long return periods to estimate joint extremes. We demonstrate the approach in application to measured and hindcast data from the Northern North Sea, the Gulf of Mexico and the North West Shelf of Australia. We also illustrate the use of data re-sampling techniques such as bootstrapping to estimate the uncertainty in marginal and dependence models and accommodate this uncertainty in extreme quantile estimation.We discuss the current approach in the context of other approaches to multivariate extreme value estimation popular in the ocean engineering community.     

Estimates of the sensitivity of cyclonic activity in the troposphere of extratropical latitudes to changes in the temperature regime

Quantitative estimates of the sensitivity of the number and size of extratropical cyclones in the Northern Hemisphere to changes in the surface temperature are obtained with the use of NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data over a 60-year period and are compared with estimates on the basis of a relatively simple model of the cyclonic and anticyclonic activities in the atmosphere of extratropical latitudes associated with characteristics of atmospheric temperature stratification (MMPKh model). The model estimates are also obtained for a dry and moist atmosphere. With the use of the reanalysis data, extratropical latitudes are, on the whole, characterized by a general decrease in the number of cyclones and the density of their packing in extratropical latitudes as the surface temperature increases. However, in the MMPKh model for moist atmosphere, estimates of the parameter of sensitivity of the number of cyclones at midlatitudes and at extratropical latitudes in the Northern Hemisphere as a whole are close to those based on the reanalysis data. The influences of the meridional gradient of the surface temperature and the vertical temperature gradient in the troposphere on changes in the number and size of extratropical cyclones are estimated from the reanalysis data and model calculations. It is noted that the most significant changes in annual mean variations in the number and size of extratropical cyclones are associated with the vertical temperature gradient in the troposphere. In this case, an increase in the vertical temperature gradient in the troposphere decreases the size of cyclones. The relative influences of the vertical and meridional temperature gradients are different for different latitudinal zones.     

Space-time variability of the field of mechanical energy transfer from the atmosphere to the Indian Ocean

An analysis of the spatial and temporal variability of the field of mechanical energy transfer (MET) from the atmosphere into the ocean is based on a separate numerical simulation of evolution for the terms of source function for a wind-wave model conducted in the Indian Ocean area for the period 1998 to 2009. The MET field is described by two integral values calculated per unit area: the total rate of energy flux from the wind to waves, I _E (x, t), and the rate of energy-loss flux for the wind waves, D _E (x, t). To solve this problem, the wind field W(x, t) is used, downloaded from the NCEP/NOAA archive [1], and the fields I _E (x, t) and D _E (x, t) were calculated using the numerical model WAM [2] with the modified source function proposed in [3]. Maps for the fields I _E (x, t) and D _E (x, t) were obtained by calculations with different scales of the space-time averaging, extreme and average values of the MET were found, seasonal and interannual variability was estimated, and the 12-year trend for several mean quantities was obtained.     

Physical modeling and swirling strength analysis of vortex shedding from near-bed piggyback pipelines

The vortex shedding from near-bed piggyback pipelines in a steady flow has been investigated experimentally in a large water flume. A specially arranged PIV system with upward-illumination of pulsed laser arrays from the flume bottom was employed for the flow visualization and quantitative measurement of the lee-wake flow in a sub-critical regime around the piggyback pipelines in the proximity of a plane boundary. Based on dimensional analyses, a dimensionless maximum swirling strength (W_m) is used for analyzing the vortex shedding intensity and its frequency. Time-averaged swirling strength analyses indicate that the lee-wake patterns for the near-bed piggyback pipelines are dependent on the configuration factors, including the gap-to-diameter ratio (e/D), the spacing-to-diameter ratio (G/D), and the diameter ratio of two pipes (d/D), etc. The swirling strength in the lee-wake is obviously asymmetric for piggyback pipelines with bed proximity. For the fixed values of G/D and d/D, the maximum swirling strength decreases with the decrease of e/D. Moreover, for the examined G/D range (0 ≤ G/D ≤ 0.5), minimum values of W_m and corresponding VIV amplitude for the piggyback pipelines are evidently within the same range of spacing-to-diameter ratio G/D ≈ 0.05–0.20.     

Comparison of atmospheric forcing in four sub-arctic seas

A comparative analysis was conducted on climate variability in four sub-arctic seas: the Sea of Okhotsk, the Bering Sea shelf, the Labrador Sea, and the Barents Sea. Based on data from the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis, the focus was on air–sea interactions, which influence ice cover, ocean currents, mixing, and stratification on sub-seasonal to decadal time scales. The seasonal cycles of the area-weighted averages of sea-level pressure (SLP), surface air temperature (SAT) and heat fluxes show remarkable similarity among the four sub-arctic seas. With respect to variation in climate, all four seas experience changes of comparable magnitude on interannual to interdecadal time scales, but with different timing. Since 2000 warm SAT anomalies were found during most of the year in three of the four sub-arctic seas, with the exception of the Sea of Okhotsk. A seesaw (out of phase) pattern in winter SAT anomalies between the Labrador and the Barents Sea in the Atlantic sector is observed during the past 50 years before 2000; a similar type of co-variability between the Sea of Okhotsk and the Bering Sea shelf in the Pacific is only evident since 1970s. Recent positive anomalies of net heat flux are more prominent in winter and spring in the Pacific sectors, and in summer in the Atlantic sectors. There is a reduced magnitude in wind mixing in the Sea of Okhotsk since 1980, in the Barents Sea since 2000, and in early spring/late winter in the Bering Sea shelf since 1995. Reduced sea-ice areas are seen over three out of four (except the Sea of Okhotsk) sub-arctic seas in recent decades, particularly after 2000 based on combined in situ and satellite observations (HadISST). This analysis provides context for the pan-regional synthesis of the linkages between climate and marine ecosystems.     

Multiple thermohaline states due to variable diffusivity in a hierarchy of simple models

The effect of variable vertical diffusivity is investigated in dynamically reduced models of the thermohaline circulation (THC) in a rectangular basin. In a simple box model, sufficiently strong variation of the diffusivity κ_v with stability G can lead to the existence of two stable equilibria. Related behaviour is found in well-resolved frictional geostrophic (FG) models. A hierarchy of under-resolved FG models is constructed, the simplest of which is an 8-cell cube, to connect the two extremes of resolution. Multiple solutions in low-order models are found to correspond to the formation of high-gradient layers which are unlikely to be resolved by current ocean models. Physical arguments show that layering and multiple solutions require κ_v to decrease more rapidly than 1/G and sensitivity experiments suggest that, in addition, κ_v must vary by a factor of 10–100. In two-hemisphere runs with salinity forcing included, the dependence of diffusivity on stratification is found to marginally favour equatorially symmetric states. Finally, such variation is shown to have a profound effect on the periodic, flush-collapse cycle under strong saline forcing; specifically, if diffusivity is taken to be a function of stratification rather than depth, regime transitions can occur much more easily. It will therefore be important for climate modelling to determine which is more realistic.