Comment on “Dynamical Implications of Block Averaging” by G. Treviño and E.L Andreas

A 2006 article in Boundary-Layer Meteorology by G. Treviño and E.L Andreas presents a derivation that questions the use of time averaging for computing turbulence statistics. Their derivation shows that time averaging over a finite interval always leads to a zero integral time scale. As a result, Treviño and Andreas argue that any turbulence quantities derived from time averaging are tainted and incompatible with the Navier–Stokes equations. While Treviño and Andreas are correct that time averaging does produce integral scales that are quite different from what researchers commonly expect, this comment demonstrates that the theoretical implications are not as dire as they claim.     

On Reynolds Averaging of Turbulence Time Series

We show that validity of Reynolds averaging for estimating the (ensemble) mean of a turbulence time series requires that the series values be both stationary and uncorrelated. In strict statistical terminology, these two conditions are jointly designated as independent identically distributed (i.i.d.). Moreover, we show that when the series values are correlated, knowledge of the correlation between the values is needed to obtain a reliable estimate of the mean. Last, we contend that a viable averaging algorithm must be Reynolds number (Re) dependent, requiring one version for low Re (Gaussian) turbulence and another for high Re (non-Gaussian) turbulence. Alternatively the median (as opposed to the mean) is recommended as a measure of the central tendency of the turbulence probability density function.     

The Near-Surface Stress Profile and Conditional Averaging of Turbulence

Using the conditional average formulation, we suggest a new explanation for why the stress in the atmospheric surface layer is often observed to vary with height. In essence, because turbulence series are always correlated for small lags, the steady-state equations of motion with negligible viscous terms that traditionally require vertical fluxes to be constant with height accordingly now require the vertical fluxes to vary with height. This result has implications for interpreting and validating Monin–Obukhov similarity theory.     

Measurement of the Sensible Eddy Heat Flux Based on Spatial Averaging of Continuous Ground-Based Observations

Using the standard eddy-covariance (EC) method to quantify mass and energy exchange at a single location usually results in an underestimation of vertical eddy fluxes at the surface. In order to better understand the reasons for this underestimation, an experimental set-up is presented that is based on spatial averaging of air temperature data from a network of ground-based sensors over agricultural land. For eight days during the 34-day observational period in May and June 2007, additional contributions to the sensible heat flux of more than 50Wm⁻² were measured in the lower surface layer by applying the spatial EC method as opposed to the standard temporal EC method. Smaller but still significant additional sensible heat fluxes were detected for four more days. The additional energy is probably transported in organised convective structures resulting in a mean vertical wind velocity unequal to zero at the tower location. The results show that convective transport contributes significantly to the surface energy budget for measurement heights as low as 2–3 m. Since these structures may be quasi-stationary, they can hardly be captured by a single-location measurement. The spatial EC set-up presented here is capable of quantifying contributions to the sensible heat flux from structures up to the scale of our spatial sensor network, which covered an area 3.5 × 3.5 km. For future experiments aiming at closing the energy balance, the spatial EC method should be employed to measure both the sensible and latent heat fluxes. Experimental determination of the horizontal advection of sensible and latent heat should also be considered, since such transport must occur due to convergence and divergence related to convection.     

城市下垫面空气动力学参数的确定

分析近10年北京325m气象塔常年观测资料,研究城市化发展对城市大气边界层动力学结构和特征的影响.结果表明,空气动力学粗糙度和零平面位移总体是逐年递增的.气象塔西南方向的高层建筑群是20世纪90年代初期逐渐建成,在SW方向,空气动力学粗糙度和零平面位移在90年代增加明显,增加的幅度1997年和1999年之间较大,这一点与气象塔西南方向城市化的加快相符合.而在NE、SE和NW方向,从1987年到1994年空气动力学粗糙度和零平面位移增加明显,1994年以后变化较小.     

Multiresolution Flux Decomposition

Geophysical variables are orthogonally decomposed by averaging timeseries using different averaging lengths, referred to as a (Haar)multiresolution decomposition. This simple and economic decomposition isassociated with cospectra that formally satisfy Reynolds averaging rules foreach averaging length. The multiresolution decomposition provides a naturalestimate of the random error in estimating a mean turbulent flux. The Fourierand multiresolution decompositions are compared using aircraft data fromBOREAS.     

Probabilistic Precipitation Forecasting Based on Ensemble Output Using Generalized Additive Models and Bayesian Model Averaging

A probabilistic precipitation forecasting model using generalized additive models (GAMs) and Bayesian model averaging (BMA) was proposed in this paper.GAMs were used to fit the spatial-temporal precipi...     

Wave-Modified Flux and Plume Dispersion in the Stable Boundary Layer

The effects of a pressure jump and a following internal gravity wave on turbulence and plume diffusion in the stable planetary boundary layer are examined. The pressure jump was accompanied by a sudden increase in turbulence and plume dispersion. The effects of wave perturbations on turbulence statistics are analysed by calculating fluxes and variances with and without the wave signal for averaging times ranging from 1 to 30 min. The wave signals are obtained using a band-pass filter. It is shown that second-order turbulence quantities calculated without first subtracting the wave perturbations from the time are greater than those calculated when the wave signal is separated from the turbulence. Estimates of the vertical dispersion of an elevated tracer plume in the stable boundary layer are made using an elastic backscatter lidar. Plume dispersion observed 25 m downwind of the source increases rapidly with the arrival of the flow disturbances. Measured plume dispersion and plume centreline height correlate with the standard deviation of the vertical velocity but not with the wave signal.     

递减平均法与一元线性回归法对ECMWF温度预报订正能力对比

基于ECMWF细网格模式的定时最高(低)气温预报产品,针对2017年陕西99个国家级气象站的日最高(低)气温预报,检验和比较了递减平均法和一元线性回归法两种方法对气温预报误差的订正效果。结果表明,两种方法都显著地提高了日最高(低)气温的预报准确率,随着预报时效的延长,订正能力逐渐减弱。技巧评分与模式对气温的预报能力有显著的负相关关系,秦岭及其以南地区的日最高气温预报和秦岭以北地区的日最低气温预报的准确率偏低,其技巧评分一般超过40%,极大值超过70%。两种方法都有效降低了系统误差,较小误差范围的站次增多,较大误差范围的站次减少,对日最高气温在预报绝对误差≤2℃误差范围的订正能力较为突出,对日最低气温在预报绝对误差≥3℃误差范围的订正更有优势。一元线性回归法对日最高气温预报的订正能力略优于递减平均法,对日最低气温预报的订正能力不及递减平均法,利用这两种方法对气温预报进行混合订正的效果更佳。     

Hydrologic Implications of Dynamical and Statistical Approaches to Downscaling Climate Model Outputs

Six approaches for downscaling climate model outputs for use in hydrologic simulation were evaluated, with particular emphasis on each method's ability to produce precipitation and other variables used to drive a macroscale hydrology model applied at much higher spatial resolution than the climate model. Comparisons were made on the basis of a twenty-year retrospective (1975–1995) climate simulation produced by the NCAR-DOE Parallel ClimateModel (PCM), and the implications of the comparison for a future(2040–2060) PCM climate scenario were also explored. The six approaches were made up of three relatively simple statistical downscaling methods – linear interpolation (LI), spatial disaggregation (SD), and bias-correction and spatial disaggregation (BCSD) – each applied to both PCM output directly(at T42 spatial resolution), and after dynamical downscaling via a Regional Climate Model (RCM – at 1/2-degree spatial resolution), for downscaling the climate model outputs to the 1/8-degree spatial resolution of the hydrological model. For the retrospective climate simulation, results were compared to an observed gridded climatology of temperature and precipitation, and gridded hydrologic variables resulting from forcing the hydrologic model with observations. The most significant findings are that the BCSD method was successful in reproducing the main features of the observed hydrometeorology from the retrospective climate simulation, when applied to both PCM and RCM outputs. Linear interpolation produced better results using RCM output than PCM output, but both methods (PCM-LI and RCM-LI) lead to unacceptably biased hydrologic simulations. Spatial disaggregation of the PCM output produced results similar to those achieved with the RCM interpolated output; nonetheless, neither PCM nor RCM output was useful for hydrologic simulation purposes without a bias-correction step. For the future climate scenario, only the BCSD-method (using PCM or RCM) was able to produce hydrologically plausible results. With the BCSD method, the RCM-derived hydrology was more sensitive to climate change than the PCM-derived hydrology.     

Wind Gust and Turbulence Statistics of Typhoons in South China

The wind data of four typhoons were obtained and analyzed. The wind speeds were measured by sonic anemometers at four observation sites in Guangdong and Hainan provinces. Detailed analysis of the wind data was conducted to investigate the turbulence characteristics of the typhoons. Characteristics of the gust factor and the turbulence integral scale of the typhoons were concluded with high confidence. The relationships among the gust factor, gust duration time, mean wind speed, roughness length, and turbulence intensity were described. The turbulence integral scale was found to be closely related to the segment length and turbulence intensity.     

Dynamical Initialization of Boundary-Layer Data

A procedure for the dynamic initialization of wind and temperature fields within the atmospheric boundary layer (ABL) is presented. The procedure uses transilient turbulence theory to assess the turbulent fluxes from observed wind and temperature data, which are used to estimate the eddy transfer coefficients, so enabling a local closure ABL model to be integrated forward in time to a new steady state. The method has been applied to initialize kytoon data taken at Kharagpur (22.3° N, 87.2° E) during the MONTBLEX field programme. Results of a case study for 17 June 1990 are discussed.     

Interpreting Reynolds stress from perspective of eddy geometry

Geometric features in oceanic mesoscale eddies such as tilt and anisotropy can influence the properties of the Reynolds stress that provides feedback between the eddies and the background flow. By regarding an eddy as a wave, previous studies have parameterized the Reynolds stress based on the equivalence in the tilt angle between the phase of the eddy stream functions and the variance ellipse for the Reynolds stress (RS-ellipse). However, the wave assumption cannot predict the anisotropy of the RS-ellipse, and also largely simplifies the eddy geometry, which would naturally be an ellipsoid rather than a wave. The present study explores the shape relation between elliptical eddies and the RS-ellipse, by mathematically reformulating the Reynolds stress based on the eddy shape. The new formula reveals that the shape relation is regulated by the horizontal extent of the occurrence probability distribution (PDF) of the eddy, and that the shape of the eddy and RS-ellipse are identical at the place of maximum PDF when the horizontal scale of the PDF is sufficiently larger than the size of the eddy. A similar tendency is found in eddies detected by satellite altimetry in the Kuroshio Extension jet region. A detailed analysis of the PDF in this region shows that the tilts of the eddies are likely to be consistent with the destabilization effect on the jet, suggesting a strong relation between the eddy geometry and the jet's stability in this region. These findings may open a path toward a new method to parameterize the Reynolds stress with the background state, exploiting the shape equivalence between the eddies and the RS-ellipse.     

强对流天气预报的动力释用

从散度方程出发，推导出了不平衡场，并应用一层中尺度模式为Ｔ４２Ｌ９模式的地面风场引入由中、小地形影响产生的中、小尺度天气系统，建立了一个符合郭晓岚对流参数化原理的强对流天气预报动力释用系统。通过实例分析和业务应用，证明该释用方法取得了较好的业务效果。     

一次暴雨过程的动力诊断

应用常规观测资料及NCEP再分析资料,对2008年5月21日福建中部地区暴雨成因进行诊断分析。结果表明:此次强降水位于水汽通量散度平流项与散度项辐合配置较好区域;高层较强涡度平流促进福建中部地区上升运动;差动假相当位温平流增强大气不稳定度,促进垂直上升运动;低层水平运动锋生中心的位置和强度与未来6h降水中心位置和强度较为一致。     

Context matters: The drivers of environmental concern in European regions

Environmental concern is crucial as bottom-up support for policies that aim to tackle the multiple ecological crises. This paper investigates which characteristics of 206 European regions are robust drivers of generalized environmental concern. To this end, 25 Eurobarometer survey waves between 2009 and 2019 were combined with measures of the regional economy, population, geography, environmental quality, and meteorological events. Bayesian model averaging is used to systematically account for model uncertainty in the estimation of partial correlations. The results indicate that environmental concern increases with income level, a more equal distribution of income and wealth, and a less greenhouse gas-intensive industrial sector. Furthermore, regions with younger and better educated populations exhibit higher levels of environmental concern. In terms of environmental characteristics, both geographical vulnerability to natural hazards and meteorological events affect environmental concern. The results highlight the importance of the socio-economic and environmental context of opinion formation and have implications for designing and communicating environmental policies.     

A Re-Evaluation of Long-Term Flux Measurement Techniques Part I: Averaging and Coordinate Rotation

Experience of long term flux measurements over tall canopiesduring the last two decades has revealed that the eddy flux of sensible plus latentheat is typically 30% smaller than the available radiant energy flux. This failureto close the energy balance is less common close to the surface over short roughnessbut is still sometimes seen, especially in complex topography. These observationscast doubt on the results obtained from long term flux studies where daily and annualnet ecosystem exchange is usually the small difference between large positive andnegative fluxes over 24 h. In this paper we investigate this problem by examiningsome fundamental assumptions entailed in analysis of surface exchange by the eddyflux method.In particular, we clarify the form and use of the scalar conservation equation thatunderlies this analysis and we examine the links between averaging period androtation of coordinates in the situation where coordinates are aligned with thewind vector. We show that rotating coordinates so that the x axis is alignedwith the mean wind vector has the effect of high pass filtering the scalar covariance,¯wc, such that contributions to the aerodynamic flux from atmosphericmotions with periods longer than the averaging period are lost while those of shorterperiod are distorted.We compare the effect of computing surface exchange by averaging many shortperiods, in each of which the coordinates are rotated so that the mean verticalvelocity is zero (the method currently adopted in most long-term flux studies),with analysis in long-term coordinates and show a systematic underestimationof surface exchange in the former case. This is illustrated with data from threelong-term forest field sites where underestimations of sensible and latent heatfluxes of 10–15% averaged over many days are seen.Crucial factors determining the loss of flux are the averaging period T, themeasurement height and the content of the scalar cospectrum at periods longerthan T. The properties of this cospectrum over tall canopies in both homogeneousand complex terrain are illustrated by measurements at our three sites and we see thatover tall canopies on flat ground in convectiveconditions, or on hilly sites in near neutralflow, the scalar cospectra have much more low frequency contentthan classical surface-layerspectral forms would predict. We believe that the filtering of this low frequencycovariance by the averaging-rotation operations in common use is a large contributoryfactor to the failure to close the energy balance over tall canopies.     

古气候的启示

回顾了近20～30年古气候的研究进展,包括下列问题:雪球和热力极大期、冰期-间冰期旋回、古季风、D/O循环和H事件、全新世季风、全新世气候突变、气候变化与古文明、近2000年的气候。研究表明,第四纪前的气候变化中CO_2起着重要的作用,但是在冰期-间冰期旋回中CO_2变化落后于温度变化。这说明虽然影响机制不同,但是温室气体和气候间有着密切的相互作用这一点则是可以肯定的。地球目前处于间冰期,面临着冰期来临的威胁。人类活动造成的气候变暖有可能推迟下一次冰期的到来。21世纪全球变暖仍将继续,人们可能做的、也是必须要做的,是尽可能地降低变暖的速率,以及可能达到的变暖峰值。     

早稻产量综合动态预报方法研究

利用湖南省早稻产量与发育期、日最高气温、日最低气温、日降水量和日日照时数等资料及早稻生理气象指标,在丰歉气象影响指数动态预报方法的基础上,引进早稻生育期内对产量有较大影响的关键气象因子,建立了早稻产量综合动态预报方法.结果表明,该方法在早稻产量增减趋势预报和定量预报上,正(准)确率都有所提高.