A new way of quantifying GCM water vapour feedback

The water vapour feedback probably makes the largest contribution to climate sensitivity, and the second-largest contribution to its uncertainty, in the sense of disagreement between General Circulation Models (GCMs, the most physically detailed models of climate we have). Yet there has been no quantification of it which allows these differences to be attributed physically with the aim of constraining the true value. This paper develops a new breakdown of the non-cloud LW (longwave) response to climate change, which avoids the problems of the conventional breakdown, and applies it to a set of 4 GCMs. The basic physical differences are that temperature is used as the vertical coordinate, and relative humidity as the humidity variable. In this framework the different GCMs’ feedbacks look more alike, consistent with our understanding that their water vapour responses are physically very similar. Also, in the global mean all the feedback components have the same sign, allowing us to conveniently attribute the overall response fractionally (e.g. about 60% from the “partly-Simpsonian” component). The systematic cancellation between different feedback components in the conventional breakdown is lost, so now a difference in a feedback component actually contributes to a difference in climate sensitivity, and the differences between these GCMs in the non-cloud LW part of this can be traced to differences in formulation, mean climate and climate change response. Physical effects such as those due to variations in the formulation of LW radiative transfer become visible. Differences in the distribution of warming no longer dominate comparison of GCMs. The largest component depends locally only on the GCM’s mean climate, so it can in principle be calculated for the real world and validated. However, components dependent on the climate change response probably account for most of the variation between GCMs. The effect of simply changing the humidity variable in the conventional breakdown is also examined. It gives some of this improvement—the loss of the cancellations that leave the conventional breakdown of no use to understand differences between GCMs’ climate sensitivities—but not the link to mean climate.     

Quantifying the water vapour feedback associated with post-Pinatubo global cooling

There is an ongoing important debate about the role of water vapour in climate change. Predictions of future climate change depend strongly on the magnitude of the water vapour feedback and until now models have almost exclusively been relied upon to quantify this feedback. In this work we employ observations of water vapour changes, together with detailed radiative calculations to estimate the water vapour feedback for the case of the Mt. Pinatubo eruption. We then compare our observed estimate with that calculated from a relatively large ensemble of simulations from a complex coupled climate model. We calculate an observed water vapour feedback parameter of –1.6 Wm^–2 K^–1, with uncertainty placing the feedback parameter between –0.9 to –2.5 Wm^–2 K^–1. The uncertain is principally from natural climate variations that contaminate the volcanic cooling. The observed estimates are consistent with that found in the climate model, with the ensemble average model feedback parameter being –2.0 Wm^–2 K^–1, with a 5–95% range of –0.4 to –3.6 Wm^–2 K^–1 (as in the case of the observations, the spread is due to an inability to separate the forced response from natural variability). However, in both the upper troposphere and Southern Hemisphere the observed model water vapour response differs markedly from the observations. The observed range represents a 40%–400% increase in the magnitude of surface temperature change when compared to a fixed water vapour response and is in good agreement with values found in other studies. Variability, both in the observed value and in the climate models feedback parameter, between different ensemble members, suggests that the long-term water vapour feedback associated with global climate change could still be a factor of 2 or 3 different than the mean observed value found here and the model water vapour feedback could be quite different from this value; although a small water vapour feedback appears unlikely. We also discuss where in the atmosphere water vapour changes have their largest effect on surface climate.     

An approach to modeling climate based on feedback relationships

Feedback occurs between many components of the climate system, and makes the study of climate very difficult. A modeling approach is presented in which feedbacks are represented specifically. Analysis of very simple models shows how feedback between two components affects their behavior; positive feedback increases persistence, and can produce climatic changes even without changes in external forcing. In any quantitative study, the magnitudes of all relevant feedbacks must be known accurately. As an example, it is shown how the effect of CO₂ on global temperature must depend greatly on the feedback between global temperature and ice extent.     

A multifractal analysis of lidar measured water vapour

Accurate and fast-response measurements of space-time observations of specific humidity were made above a drying land surface at the University of California at Davis, using the Los Alamos water Raman-lidar. In an attempt to quantify the space-time intermittency features of turbulent flows in the lower atmosphere, a multifractal analysis of these water vapour measurements was performed. The structure of the specific humidity, (x, t), was analyzed quantifying a scalar gradient measure both in time and space, for all possible one-dimensional cuts, i.e. and . The results confirm the multifractal nature of this scalar gradient measure (a type of scalar dissipation rate) and show that humidity measurements at fixed times (x) are more intermittent (e.g. have less entropy dimension) than those at fixed locations in space (t). Similar multifractal behaviour of the spatial data, with and without a transformation from the observed wind velocities, supports the validity of Taylor's hypothesis for the studied fields.     

Testing of the bandpass eddy covariance method for a long-term measurement of water vapour flux over a forest

The bandpass eddy covariance method has been used to measure the turbulent flux of scalar quantities using a slow-responsescalar sensor. The method issimilar in principle to the traditional eddy correlation method but includes the estimation of high-frequency components of the flux on the basis of cospectral similarity in the atmospheric surface layer. In order to investigate the performance of the method, measurements of the water vapour flux over a forest with the bandpass eddy covariance method and the direct eddy correlation method were compared. The flux obtained by the bandpass eddy covariance method agreed with that by the eddy correlation method within ±20% for most cases, in spite of a rather slow sensor-response of the adopted hygrometer. This result supports its relevance to a long-term continuous operation, since a stable, low-maintenance,general-purpose sensor canbe utilized for scalar quantities. Oneweak point of the method isits difficulty in principle to measure the correct flux when the magnitude of the sensible heat flux is very small, because the method uses the sensible heat flux as a standard reference for the prediction of undetectable high-frequency components of the scalar flux. An advanced method is then presented to increase its robustness. In the new method, output signals from a slow-response sensor are corrected using empirical frequency-responsefunctions for the sensor,thereby extending the width of the bandpass frequency region where components of the flux are directly measured (not predicted). The advanced method produced correct fluxes for all cases including the cases of small sensible heat flux. The advanced bandpass eddy covariance method is thus appropriate for along-term measurement of the scalar fluxes.     

Recent fluctuations of tropospheric temperature and water vapour content in the tropics

Summary During the last decades the average temperature of the tropical troposphere (200/850 hPa layer) has steadily increased, between 1965 and 1984 by about 0.8°C in the whole equatorial belt. Data series from a section of individual stations verify this trend as seasonally constant, but decreasing from the equator towards both hemispheres. Further evidence is presented by selected mountain stations and glacier retreat in all equatorial mountains.Above the equatorial Pacific, the same stations indicate an increase of moisture content in the middle troposphere (500/700 hPa layer) expressed in precipitable water as well as in relative humidity. This coincides with increasing sea surface temperature in the area around Indonesia and northern Australia. Above Africa the trend is (if real) quite patchy. Due to the short residence time of water vapour in the atmosphere the horizontal (zonal ) distances between its sources and sinks remain near 2000 km, which may explain, in addition to instrumental differences, large regional deviations.With 7 Figures     

Suppression of ENSO in a coupled model without water vapor feedback

 We examine 800-year time series of internally generated variability in both a coupled ocean-atmosphere model where water vapor anomalies are not allowed to interact with longwave radiation and one where they are. The ENSO-like phenomenon in the experiment without water vapor feedback is drastically suppressed both in amplitude and geographic extent relative to the experiment with water vapor feedback. Surprisingly, the reduced amplitude of ENSO-related sea surface temperature anomalies in the model without water vapor feedback cannot be attributed to greater longwave damping of sea surface temperature. (Differences between the two experiments in radiative feedback due to clouds counterbalance almost perfectly the differences in radiative feedback due to water vapor.) Rather, the interaction between water vapor anomalies and longwave radiation affects the ENSO-like phenomenon through its influence on the vertical structure of radiative heating: Because of the changes in water vapor associated with it, a given warm equatorial Pacific sea surface temperature anomaly is associated with a radiative heating profile that is much more gravitationally unstable when water vapor feedback is present. The warm sea surface temperature anomaly therefore results in more convection in the experiment with water vapor feedback. The increased convection, in turn, is related to a larger westerly wind-stress anomaly, which creates a larger decrease in upwelling of cold water, thereby enhancing the magnitude of the original warm sea surface temperature anomaly. In this manner, the interaction between water vapor anomalies and longwave radiation magnifies the air-sea interactions at the heart of the ENSO phenomenon; without this interaction, the coupling between sea surface temperature and wind stress is effectively reduced, resulting in smaller amplitude ENSO episodes with a more limited geographical extent. Received: 26 March 1999 / Accepted: 25 October 1999     

GPS water vapour tomography: preliminary results from the ESCOMPTE field experiment

Water vapour plays a major role in atmospheric processes but remains difficult to quantify due to its high variability in time and space and the sparse set of available measurements. The GPS has proved its capacity to measure the integrated water vapour at zenith with the same accuracy as other methods. Recent studies show that it is possible to quantify the integrated water vapour in the line of sight of the GPS satellite. These observations can be used to study the 3D heterogeneity of the troposphere using tomographic techniques. We develop three-dimensional tomographic software to model the three-dimensional distribution of the tropospheric water vapour from GPS data. First, the tomographic software is validated by simulations based on the realistic ESCOMPTE GPS network configuration. Without a priori information, the absolute value of water vapour is less resolved as opposed to relative horizontal variations. During the ESCOMPTE field experiment, a dense network of 17 dual frequency GPS receivers was operated for 2 weeks within a 20×20-km area around Marseille (southern France). The network extends from sea level to the top of the Etoile chain (700 m high). Optimal results have been obtained with time windows of 30-min intervals and input data evaluation every 15 min. The optimal grid for the ESCOMTE geometrical configuration has a horizontal step size of 0.05°×0.05° and 500 m vertical step size. Second, we have compared the results of real data inversions with independent observations. Three inversions have been compared to three successive radiosonde launches and shown to be consistent. A good resolution compared to the a priori information is obtained up to heights of 3000 m. A humidity spike at 4000-m altitude remains unresolved. The reason is probably that the signal is spread homogeneously over the whole network and that such a feature is not resolvable by tomographic techniques. The results of our pure GPS inversion show a correlation with meteorological phenomena. Our measurements could be related to the land–sea breeze. Undoubtedly, tomography has some interesting potential for the water vapour cycle studies at small temporal and spatial scales.     

Surface fluxes of heat and water vapour from sites in the European Arctic

Summary  Measurements of the surface fluxes of heat and water vapour were taken at four sites across the European Arctic as part of the EU funded LAPP project. The sites cover a range of latitudinal, altitudinal and climatic conditions. The most northerly site is near Ny-?lesund, Svalbard, a polar semi-desert with continuous permafrost. A second permafrost site is a fen area in the Zackenberg valley, East Greenland. Finally two sites in northern Finland, Skalluvaara and Kaamanen are on the southern boundary of the region affected by permafrost. At all sites measurements were made of the turbulent fluxes of heat and water vapour using eddy correlation equipment for at least one active season. The net radiation totals for July and August are similar at all sites. At the sites with permafrost a substantial proportion (over 20%) of the net radiation goes into soil heat flux, to thaw the soil moisture in the top metre. Of the remaining energy just over half is used for evaporation. At the Finnish sites the vegetation is largely deciduous and this is seen in the record with higher evaporative ratios in July and August, after the vegetation becomes green. The Finnish sites tend to have higher surface resistance to evaporation; however, the evaporative demand is greater leading to slightly higher evaporation rates. The two Finnish sites have a similar seasonal pattern determined by the water table and seasonality of the vegetation. The two northern sites show a pattern that is determined primarily by the variation of water table only. It is concluded that the water balance through the active season is influenced primarily by the history of snow cover. The seasonality of the vegetation, the permafrost and the depth of water table are also important influences. Received November 1, 1999 Revised April 17, 2000     

Seasonal variations in the isotopic composition of near-surface water vapour in the eastern Mediterranean

Although the isotopic composition of precipitation is widely used in global climate change studies, use of water vapour isotopes is considerably more limited. Here we present the results from 9 yr of atmospheric vapour measurements in the Eastern Mediterranean, at a site in Israel. The measurements show a strong mean seasonal cycle of about 4‰ in ¹⁸O (peaking around July). This seasonality could not be adequately explained by changes in surface interactions or in air mass trajectories, as usually invoked for variations in local precipitation. We could explain this cycle only as a combination of three components: (1) rainout effects; (2) temperature and relative humidity control of the initial vapour and (3) seasonal variations in the vertical mixing across the top of the planetary boundary layer. This last component is emphasized in the current study, and it was shown to be a significant factor in the seasonal cycle features. The measurements were also compared with an isotope-enabled GCM (CAM2) run, which exhibited a markedly different seasonal cycle. Such comparisons with vapour isotopes data could help in constraining models better.     

Surface exchange of water vapour between an open sphagnum fen and the atmosphere

Water loss by evapotranspiration (ET) is a principal component of the hydrologic cycle in wetlands. Using micrometeorological techniques, we measured ET from a Sphagnum-dominated open fen in northcentral Minnesota (U.S.A.) from May to October in 1991 and 1992. The daily ET rate ranged from 0.2–4.8 mm d^-1 with a growing season average of 3.0 mm d^-1. The evapotranspiration rate of the fen was near the potential rate of open water evaporation when the vascular plants were actively growing and the water table level was within or above the rooting zone. Using a dual-source modification of the Penman-Monteith equation (Massman, 1992), we partitioned the measured ET into evaporation from the non-vascular Sphagnum surfaces and transpiration from vascular plants. The analysis indicated that about two thirds of the water vapour flux to the atmosphere was from evaporation when the Sphagnum surface was wet. Such an evaporative flux was expected because of vertical distribution of vascular plant leaves which had a small leaf area index (0.4–0.7) and intercepted only about 30% of net radiation (R _n ) during the day. The remainder of R _n was thus available for evaporation from Sphagnum. Evaporation significantly decreased as the Sphagnum surface dried out. When the water table was within the rooting zone (0–0.4 m), the vascular plants absorbed Sphagnum-generated sensible heat, which amounted up to one third of their transpiration energy flux. Under these conditions, the total water vapour flux remained near its potential rate owing to the enhanced transpiration from vascular plants. A drop in water table of 0.15–0.2 m below the hollow bottom during vascular plant senescence resulted in ET rates lower than the potential rates by 5–65%.     

Action targets: a new approach to international greenhouse gas controls

Abstract

This article introduces and explores a new form of international commitment to limit greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, called an action target. Action targets differ from other forms of targets, such as the Kyoto Protocol's fixed targets, in that they define a quantity of GHG abatement to be achieved, rather than a future emission level to be reached. This article explains the basic mechanics of how action targets might operate, and analyses the approach across a range of criteria, including uncertainty management and contributions to sustainable development in non-Annex I (developing) countries. The analysis suggests that action targets might improve the prospects of widening and deepening developing country participation in the international climate regime.     

Effects of water vapour on the structure parameter of the refractive index for near-infrared radiation

The refractive index of air (n) mainly depends on temperature andwater vapour content. For near-infrared radiation, temperature isthe main determining factor. To determinethe structure parameter of temperature ( ) fromthe structure parameter of the refractive index( ), the influence ofwater vapour content on n needs to be taken into account as acorrection. Three levels of approximation are presented. The firstinvolves the standard deviations of T and q (_T and_q) as well as the correlation coefficient betweenT and q (R_Tq). The second approximation involvesR_Tq and the Bowen ratio (), and the last uses only the Bowen ratio.The latter is the classical Bowen ratio correction.Evaluation of the validity of the assumptions used in the derivationreveals that a large error may be introduced (for situations withR_Tq < 0.8) by replacing _T/_qwith the Bowen ratio.Consequently, estimating from using the Bowen ratiocan contain errors of 5–40% for || < 1. Adding R_Tqas extra information reduces the errors only marginally. For || > 1,the correction is small, and all three approximations give errors of lessthan 1% in . When is used to compute the sensible heat flux,the influence of the quality of the correction forwater vapour fluctuations on the measured energy balance is small: forsmall ||, the correction is large, but the absolute value ofthe heat flux is small, whereas for large ||, the correctionis insignificant.     

Direct human influence of irrigation on atmospheric water vapour and climate

Human activity increases the atmospheric water vapour content in an indirect way through climate feedbacks. We conclude here that human activity also has a direct influence on the water vapour concentration through irrigation. In idealised simulations we estimate a global mean radiative forcing in the range of 0.03 to +0.1 Wm^–2 due to the increase in water vapour from irrigation. However, because the water cycle is embodied in the climate system, irrigation has a more complex influence on climate. We also simulate a change in the temperature vertical profile and a large surface cooling of up to 0.8 K over irrigated land areas. This is of opposite sign than expected from the radiative forcing alone, and this questions the applicability of the radiative forcing concept for such a climatic perturbation. Further, this study shows stronger links than previously recognised between climate change and freshwater scarcity which are environmental issues of paramount importance for the twenty first century.     

The effect of water vapour broadening on methane eddy correlation flux measurements

A high resolution tunable diode laser absorption spectrometer (TDLAS) was used to measure the broadening effect of water vapor and other gases (dry air, nitrogen, oxygen, hydrogen and helium) on three methane lines in the v₄ fundamental. The effects on methane eddy correlation flux measurements amount to a few percent for the least broadened line for expected H₂O fluxes, to 10% for the most broadened line for higher H₂O and lower CH₄ fluxes likely to be encountered. The broadening coefficients of methane measured for air, N₂, O₂, and He are in good agreement with recently published values.