INTERANNUAL LOW-FREQUENCY OSCILLATIONS OF MERIDIONAL WINDS OVER THE EQUATORIAL INDIAN-PACIFIC OCEANS

Based on analysis of the meridional winds over oceanic areas and SST for 1950-1979 extracted from the data sets of COADS, the long-term variability of the meridional winds over the equatorial Indian-Pacific oceans and its relationship to the onset and development of El Nino events have been studied. The major results are as follows:(1) There is a great similarity between ITCZ over the Pacific and SST in the seasonal trend, with ITCZ and high SST found in the Southern Hemisphere in winter and in the Northern Hemisphere in summer.During El Nino years, unusual meridional winds were often observed, with significant convergence of meridional winds occurring over near-equatorial regions.(2) For the near-equatorial meridional winds, there are three types of interannual LFO:QBO, SO, FYO. QBO plays an important role in the unusual behavior of meridional winds for El Nino years, while SO is very important for both El Nino and cold water years. These two oscillations may fit well to the observed variation in the meridional wind. FYO may enhance the variation of meridional winds.(3) Interannual LFO of meridional winds originates in the Indian Ocean-Maritime Continent and coastal area of East Pacific. Unusual activities of winter monsoon in both hemispheres and trade winds off the coastal area of East Pacific are believed to be their major cause.(4) Monsoon-trade interaction shows up in the significant amplification of the disturbances of meridional winds while they propagate eastward from monsoon area to trade wind area.     

The characteristics of 30–60 day oscillation and its relations to the interannual oscillations

The characteristics of 30-60 day oscillation (hereafter called LFO ) of the outgoing longwave radiation data (OLR) and its relations to the interannual oscillations of the sea surface temperature (SST) are investigated by using the daily OLR data for the period from January, 1979 to December, 1987 and the corresponding monthly SST data. II is found that the LFO the band the interannual oscillations of the SST monthly anomaly (SSTA) interact each oth-er and they all relate to the occurrence and development of El Nino events closely. Before El Nino event happens, it contributes to the SST’s warming up and to the SST’s quasi-biennial oscillation (called QBO for brevity) and three and half years oscillation (called SO for short) being in warm water phase in the equatorial central and eastern Pacific (ECP and EEP) that the LFO in the equatorial western Pacific (EWP) enhances and propagates eastward; When El Nino event takes place, the LFO, SSTA and SSTA’s QBO and SO in the EEP interact and strengthen each other; But the warmer SST and the SSTA’s QBO and SO in the warm water phase in the EEP contribute to the LFO's weak-ening in the equatorial Pacific. Moreover, these contribute to the SST in the EEP becoming cold and the SSTA’s QBO and SO in the EWP being in cold water phase and then impel the El Nino event to end.     

EVOLUTIONAL FEATURES OF INTERANNUAL LOW-FREQUENCY OSCILLATIONS AND THEIR RELATION TO THE OCCURRENCE OF EL NINO

A simplified data set with 8°×8° grid system in a region of 32°S-32°N from 1951 to 1979 for the elements of sea surface temperature (SST),zonal wind at sea level (U),sea level pressure (SLP) and total cloud amount (CA) is made from the COADS.The oscillation components with periods of 2 years (QBO),3.5 years (SO) and 5.5 years (FYO) in interannual low-frequency oscillations have been studied by using the methods of extended EOF (EEOF) and lag comelation analysis with the oscillational components of SST in the equator of eastern Pacific as the reference element.In our paper,the relationship between oscillation components and occumence of El Nino is also investigated.     

A NUMERICAL STUDY OF SHORT-RANGE CLIMATIC OSCILLATION WITH VARIOUS TIME SCALES FORCED BY EL NINO DURING THE NORTHERN SUMMER

The normal mode method is adopted to decompose the differences between simulations with SST(seasurface temperature)anomahes over centra-eastern Pacific and normal SST by use of a nine-layer global spec-tral model in order to investigate short-range climatic oscillation with various time scales forced by ElNino during the northern summer.Investigation shows that El Nino may have the following influence onatmosphere on various space-time scales.Extra-long wave components of Rossby mode forced by convectiveanomaly over equatorial western Pacific resulting from El Nino produce climatic oscillation on monthly(sea-sonal)time scale in middle-high latitudes of Southern and Northern Hemispheres;extra-long wave componentsof Kelvin mode forced by SST anomalies propagate along the equator,resulting in 30—60 day oscillation oftropical and subtropical atmosphere;and its long waves move eastward with westerly,resulting in quasi-biweekoscillation.     

赤道印度洋—太平洋海面经向风的年际低频振荡

通过对COADS1950—1979年海面经向风和海温资料的分析,本文探讨了印度洋—太平洋近赤道地区经向风的长期变化特征及其与厄尼诺发生发展间的关系。结果表明：（1）热带太平洋辐合带系统与海温具有相同的季节变化趋势,冬季赤道辐合带和高海温位于南半球,夏季位于北半球。厄尼诺年经向风发生异常,近赤道地区出现强烈的经向风辐合。（2）近赤道经向风存在准2年（QBO）,准3.5年（SO）和准5年（FYO）3种年际低频振荡。QBO对厄尼诺年经向风异常起着重要作用,SO对厄尼诺年和冷水年的经向风变化均十分重要,这两种振荡可以很好的拟合经向风的实际变化,FYO则起着加强的作用。（3）经向风年际低频振荡起源于印度洋—海洋大陆和东太平洋沿岸地区,南北半球冬季风异常和东太平洋沿岸地区信风异常是其主要原因。（4）季风—信风（V）相互作用表现为当异常经向风扰动从季风区东传到信风区时明显增幅,这与信风区海气系统之间时间尺度约1年的自我正反馈有关。     

VARIATIONS OF 30—60 DAY OSCILLATION IN ATMOSPHERE BEFORE AND DURING 1982 EL NINO*

By using the upper-wind data from July 1980 to June 1983,the variations of the low-frequency oscillation(LFO) in the atmosphere before and during 1982 El Nino have been investigated.Before the El Nino,the LFO propagates from west to east over the equator of the Eastern Hemisphere and from east to west over 20°N.The eastward propagating LFO over the equator consists of zonal wavenumber 1 propagating eastward and zonal wavenumber 2 with a character of stationary wave.The oscillation of zonal wavenumber 2 can modulate the oscillation strength.After the onset of the El Nino,the propagating directions of the LFO over the equator and 20°N of the Eastern Hemisphere change to be westward and eastward,respectively.The LFO over the western Pacific weakens rapidly and one coming from middle and high latitudes propagates to the equator.From the phase compositions of streamline fields for the zonal wavenumber 1 of equatorial westward propagatirg LFO,it is found that the atmospheric heat source in the equator of the eastern Pacific(EEP)excites a series of the equatorial cyclones and anticyclones which move northward and westward and form the westward propagating LFO over the equator.With the wavelength of 20000km,this kind of equatorial wave is similar to the mixing Rossby-gravity wave.In its westward and northward movement,the circulation in East Asia is modified.This may be the mechanism of the influence of El Nino on the climate of China.     

ACTIONS OF TYPHOONS OVER THE WESTERN PACIFIC (INCLUDING THE SOUTH CHINA SEA) AND EL NINO

According to me lime cross-section or SSI in me equatorial eastern racing and me historical data on typhoon actions over the western Pacific (including the South China Sea), a composite analysis of the actions of typhoon over the western Pacific in El Nino year (SST in the equatorial eastern Pacific are continuously higher than normal) and in the inverse El Nino year (there are continuative negative anomalies of SST in the equatorial eastern Pacific) is carried out. The results show that the actions of typhoon are in close relation with El Nino: The annual average number of typhoons over the western Pacific and South China Sea is less than normal in El Nino year and more in the inverse El Nino year; The annual average number of the landing typhoon on the continent of China bears the same relationship with El Nino; The anomalies of typhoon actions mainly occur during July-November and their starting are behind the anomaly of SST in the equatorial eastern Pacific.Based on the generation and development co     

1997／1998年El Nino事件发生、发展可能机制的进一步研究

基于美国哥伦比亚大学Lamont—Doherty地球观象台LDEO（Lamont—DohertyEarth Observatory）海表温度资料和NCEP／NCAR再分析风场资料,分析了1997／1998年El Nino3期间西太平洋暖池海表温度和西风距平的时间演变特征,同时也分析了东太平洋暖池海表温度和北风距平的时间演变特征。结果表明,1997／1998年El Nino3事件期间,西太平洋暖池海表温度变化及异常西风和东太平洋暖池海表温度变化及异常北风都与Nino3指数变化密切相关。将东、西太平洋暖池及异常北风、西风一并结合起来考虑,进一步研究了1997／1998年El Nino3事件发生、发展的可能机制：异常西风驱动西太平洋暖池东端暖水向东伸展直接有利于赤道东太平洋海表温度增加;异常西风激发东传的暖Kelvin波对东太平洋的冷上升流有抑制作用,从而有利于赤道东太平洋海表温度增加;东传的异常西风可以通过埃克曼漂流效应将赤道两侧的海表暖水向赤道辐合从而加强了赤道附近的下沉流,也有利于赤道东太平洋赤道附近海表温度增加。几乎与此同时,北风距平通过产生北风吹流将东太平洋暖池暖水由北向南输送至赤道附近直接导致Nino3区海表温度增加。上述增温因素的叠加作用共同导致了1997／1998年El Nino事件迅速发生、异常强大。     

Factors that affect the amplitude of El Nino in global coupled climate models

Historically, El Nino-like events simulated in global coupled climate models have had reduced amplitude compared to observations. Here, El Nino-like phenomena are compared in ten sensitivity experiments using two recent global coupled models. These models have various combinations of horizontal and vertical ocean resolution, ocean physics, and atmospheric model resolution. It is demonstrated that the lower the value of the ocean background vertical diffusivity, the greater the amplitude of El Nino variability which is related primarily to a sharper equatorial thermocline. Among models with low background vertical diffusivity, stronger equatorial zonal wind stress is associated with relatively higher amplitude El Nino variability along with more realistic east–west sea surface temperature (SST) gradient along the equator. The SST seasonal cycle in the eastern tropical Pacific has too much of a semiannual component with a double intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ) in all experiments, and thus does not affect, nor is it affected by, the amplitude of El Nino variability. Systematic errors affecting the spatial variability of El Nino in the experiments are characterized by the eastern equatorial Pacific cold tongue regime extending too far westward into the warm pool. The time scales of interannual variability (as represented by time series of Nino3 SSTs) show significant power in the 3–4 year ENSO band and 2–2.5 year tropospheric biennial oscillation (TBO) band in the model experiments. The TBO periods in the models agree well with the observations, while the ENSO periods are near the short end of the range of 3–6 years observed during the period 1950–94. The close association between interannual variability of equatorial eastern Pacific SSTs and large-scale SST patterns is represented by significant correlations between Nino3 time series and the PC time series of the first EOFs of near-global SSTs in the models and observations. Received: 17 April 2000 / Accepted: 17 August 2000     

On the Mechanism of the Locking of the El Nio Event Onset Phase to Boreal Spring

1. Introduction The observed facts show that the ENSO cycle has obvious phase-locking and oscillates irregularly (An and Wang, 2001; Kaplan et al., 1998). Based on Zibiak and Cane's (1987) model (hereafter, the Z-C model) and simple, coupled ocean-atmosph…     

NUMERICAL STUDY OF THE SHORT-TERM CLIMATIC OSCILLATION FORCED BY EL NINO DURING NORTHERN WINTER

Using a nine-layer global spectral model, numerical schemes with two different SST distributions in January(control case and abnormal case) have been tested to study the climatic effect, propagation charateristics and the maintenance mechanism of the short-term climatic oscillation caused by El Nino during northern winter. The main results are as follows:(1) During northern winter, there exist two wave trains because of the influence of El Nino. One is similar to PNA pattern, and the other is similar to EUP pattern.(2) The PNA-like wave train caused by the anomalous SST forcing in central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean is due to the response of ultralong wave and long wave components of Rossby mode, and the EUP-like wave traincrossing Eurasia is mainly due to the wave component of Rossby mode.(3) During northern winter, the warm water region in central equatorial Pacific Ocean is the source of forced wave trains.(4) In northern winter,the energy source for maintaining the short-term climatic oscillation is from the interaction between eddies, and between eddy and zonal flow.     

两类ENSO事件前期的热带太平洋海温距平场

分析了１９５６年以来两类ＥＮＳＯ事件热带太平洋海温距平场的特征。结果指出,东部型ＥｌＮｉｎｏ事件前期为ＬａＮｉｎａ事件年,热带中东太平洋为强的海温负距平,东部型ＬａＮｉｎａ事件前期为ＥｌＮｉｎｏ事件年,热带中不太平洋为强的海温正距平,中部型ＥｌＮｉｎｏ事件前期热带中西太平洋多为明显的海温正距平,中部型ＬａＮｉｎａ事件前期热带东太平洋多为明显的海渐负距平。两类ＥＮＳＯ事件前期海温距平场特殊基本相反。     

东亚季风的准两年振荡及其与ENSO变率的联系

运用小波分析方法和相关分析对东亚季的准两年振荡的存在及其与ＥＮＳＯ变率的关系进行了研究,结果指出：东亚季风具有显著的准两年振荡特征,但周期与振幅具有明显的年代际变化,同时东亚季风的ＱＢＯ过程与ＥｌＮｉｎｏ事件具有密切的联系;     

A mechanism for decadal changes of ENSO behavior: roles of background wind changes

This study explains why a number of El Nino properties (period, amplitude, structure, and propagation) have changed in a coherent manner since the late 1970s and why these changes had almost concurred with the Pacific decadal climate shift. Evidence is presented to show that from the pre-shift (1961-1975) to the post-shift (1981-1995) epoch, significant changes in the tropical Pacific are found in the surface winds and temperature, whereas changes in the thermocline are uncertain. Numerical experiments with the Cane and Zebiak model demonstrate that the decadal changes in the surface winds qualitatively reproduce the observed coherent changes in El Nino properties. The fundamental factor that altered the model's El Nino is the decadal changes of the background equatorial winds and associated upwelling. The annual cycle is also necessary for the mean state to modulate El Nino. From the pre- to post-shift epoch, the changes in the background winds and upwelling modify the structure of the coupled mode (eastward displacement of the equatorial westerly anomalies) by reallocating anomalous atmospheric heating and SST gradient along the equator. This structural change amplifies the ENSO cycle and prolongs the oscillation period by enhancing the coupled instability and delaying transitions from a warm to a cold state or vice versa. The changes in the mean currents and upwelling reduce the effect of the zonal temperature advection while enhance that of the vertical advection; thus, the prevailing westward propagation is replaced by eastward propagation or standing oscillation. Our results suggest a critical role of the atmospheric bridge that rapidly conveys the influences of extratropical decadal variations to the tropics, and the possibility that the Pacific climate shift might have affected El Nino properties in the late 1970s by changing the background tropical winds and the associated equatorial upwelling.     

Connections Between Different Types of El Ni~no and Southern/Northern Oscillation

It has long been acknowledged that there are two types of El Ni(n)o events,i.e.,the eastern Pacific El Ni(n)o (EE) and the central Pacific El Ni(n)o (CE),according to the initial position of the anomalous warm water and its propagation direction.In this paper,the oceanic and atmospheric evolutions and the possible mechanisms of the two types of El Ni(n)o events were examined.It is found that all the El Ni(n)o events,CE or EE,could be attributed to the joint impacts of the eastward advection of warm water from the western Pacific warm pool (WPWP) and the local warming in the equatorial eastern Pacific.Before the occurrence of CE events,WPWP had long been in a state of being anomalous warm,so the strength of eastward advection of warm water was much stronger than that of EE,which played a major role in the formation of CE.While for the EE events,most contribution came from the local warming of the equatorial eastern Pacific.It is further identified that the immediate cause leading to the difference of the two types of El Ni(n)o events was the asynchronous variations of the Southern Oscillation (SO) and the Northern Oscillation (NO) as defined by Chen in 1984.When the transition from the positive phase of the NO (NO+) to NO- was prior to that from SO+ to SO-,there would be eastward propagation of westerly anomalies from the tropical western Pacific induced by NO and hence the growth of warm sea surface temperature anomalies in WPWP and its eastward propagation.This was followed by lagged SO-induced weakening of southeast trade winds and local warming in the equatorial eastern Pacific.These were conducive to the occurrence of the CE.On the contrary,the transition from SO+ to SO- leading the transition of NO would favor the occurrence of EE type events.     

A FURTHER INQUIRY ON 30-60 DAY OSCILLATION IN THE TROPICAL ATMOSPHERE

Based on the ECMWF data(1980-1983) and others, a further inquiry on the activities and the structure feature of 30-60 day oscillation in the tropical atmosphere has been completed. The following results are obtained:There is stronger perturbation kinetic energy of 30-60 day atmospheric oscillation(AO) in the equatorial eastern Pacific. This means the equatorial eastern Pacific is a stronger activity region of 30-60 day AO in the tropics. Analyses also show that the AO system with the time scale of 30-60 days might consist of various spatial scale disturbances. The zonal propagation of 30-60 day oscillation in the tropical atmosphere is not all eastward. Some differences are found for different spatial scales, and for propagations in upper and lower tropospheres. The meridional propagation of the oscillation is even more different in the various regions and might be related to the low-frequency wave train in the atmosphere. The stronger activities of 30-60 day AO in the equatorial middle-western Pacific are related to the El Nino events and the weaker ones are correspondent to the inverse El Nino phenomena.     

Delayed impacts of the El Niño episodes in the central Pacific on the summertime climate anomalies of eastern China in 2003 and 2007

In the summers of 2003 and 2007, eastern China suffered similar climate disasters with severe flooding in the Huaihe River valley and heat waves in the southern Yangtze River delta and South China. Using SST data and outgoing longwave radiation (OLR) data from NOAA along with reanalysis data from NCEP/NCAR, the 2002/03 and 2006/07 El Nino episodes in the central Pacific and their delayed impacts on the following early summertime climate anomalies of eastern China were analyzed. The possible physical progresses behaved as follows: Both of the moderate El Nino episodes matured in the central equatorial Pacific during the early winter. The zonal wind anomalies near the sea surface of the west-central equatorial Pacific excited equatorial Kelvin waves propagating eastward and affected the evolution of the El Ni\~no episodes. From spring to early summer, the concurring anomalous easterly winds in the central equatorial Pacific and the end of upwelling Kelvin waves propagating eastward in the western equatorial Pacific, favored the equatorial warm water both of the SST and the subsurface temperature in the western Pacific. These conditions favored the warm state of the western equatorial Pacific in the early summer for both cases of 2003 and 2007. Due to the active convection in the western equatorial Pacific in the early summer and the weak warm SST anomalies in the tropical western Pacific from spring to early summer, the convective activities in the western Pacific warm pool showed the pattern in which the anomalous strong convection only appeared over the southern regions of the tropical western Pacific warm pool, which effects the meridional shift of the western Pacific subtropical high in the summer. The physical progress of the delayed impacts of the El Ni\~no episodes in the central equatorial Pacific and their decaying evolution on the climate anomalies in eastern China were interpreted through the key role of special pattern for the heat convection in the tropical western Pacific warm pool and the response of the western North Pacific anomalous anticyclone.     

How well do current climate models simulate two types of El Nino?

In this study, we evaluate the fidelity of current climate models in simulating the two types of El Nino events using the pre-industrial output in CMIP3 archives. It is shown that a few climate models simulate the two types of El Nino events to some extent, while most of the models have serious systematic problems in simulating distinctive patterns of sea-surface temperature (SST) and precipitation anomaly associated with the two types of El Nino; that is, they tend to simulate a single type of El Nino. It is shown that the ability of climate models in simulating the two types of El Nino is related to the sensitivity of the atmospheric responses to the SST anomaly patterns. Models whose convective location is shifted to the east (west) as the SST anomaly center moves to the east (west) tends to simulate the two types of El Nino events successfully. On the other hand, models whose location of convective anomaly is confined over the western or central Pacific tends to simulate only the single type of El Nino event. It is also shown that the confinement of the convective anomaly over the western or central Pacific is closely linked to the dry bias and the associated cold bias over the eastern Pacific. That is, because positive El Nino SST anomalies over the eastern Pacific cannot increase local convection effectively when the total SSTs are still too cold due to a cold bias. This implies that the realistic simulation of climatology, especially over the equatorial eastern Pacific, is essential to the successful simulation of the two types of El Nino.     

太平洋年代际振荡冷、暖背景下ENSO循环的特征

利用英国气象局哈德莱中心的月平均海温距平资料、美国Scripps海洋研究所联合环境分析中心(JEDAC)的海表和次表层海温观测资料以及NCEP/NCAR再分析资料,研究了太平洋年代际振荡(PDO)不同背景下ENSO循环的特征.结果表明,PDO为ENSO循环提供了一个年代际气候背景,在PDO的暖位相时期,El Nino事件发生的频率较高,强度较强;反之,在PDO的冷位相时期,La Nina事件发生的频率较高,强度较强.而且在不同的太平洋年代际振荡背景下,ENSO循环表现出不同的特征.在PDO冷位相时期,发生El Nino(La Nina)事件时,正(负)的SOTA从西太平洋沿温跃层向东传播,正(负)的SSTA从赤道东太平洋向西扩展到中太平洋,ENSO事件先在赤道东太平洋爆发.在PDO的暖位相时期,发生El Nino(La Nina)事件时,正(负)的SOTA首先出现在赤道中太平洋,然后沿温跃层向东传播,正(负)的SSTA从赤道中太平洋向东扩展到东太平洋,ENSO事件首先在中太平洋爆发.这为ENSO预测提供了新的线索.     

从有效位能变化来分析ElNino的年代际变化

利用近50a的美国Maryland大学全球海洋同化分析资料和NCEP全球大气再分析资料，分析了与ElNino相联系的热带太平洋有效位能（APE）的时空演变过程，从有效位能变化角度揭示了50年来ElNino的年代际变化特征。结果表明，热带太平洋ElNino年代际变化特征主要表现为在20世纪70年代末期以前与其后的显著不同。在有效位能异常变化的振幅和频率方面，20世纪70年代末期以后，振荡的振幅显著增,大直频率变慢。在有效位能异常变化的振幅和频率方面，70年代末期以前，ElNino事件的先兆是有效位能先在热带西太平洋异常积累，然后这些积累的有效位能沿赤道快速向东传播并释放能量，使得东太平洋出现能量的异常，东太平洋的有效位能减少，产生ElNino事件；70年代末期以后，ElNino事件的建立没有表现异常的有效位能在热带西太平洋的积累，其建立表现为赤道中太平洋直接出现的局地有效位能的异常，然后表现为不稳定海气耦合模态增幅性地缓慢向东传播，使得东太平洋的有效位能减少，发生ElNino事件。