河口海岸桥隧工程设计流速推算

跨海桥隧工程设计需要推算工程位置不同重现期设计流速,由于现场缺乏长期实测流速资料,设计流速推算存在很大困难。研究提出了采用不同重现期典型风暴潮过程推算河口海岸设计流速的数值模拟方法,对河口地区考虑洪水径流与风暴潮流的耦合。在依据澳门验潮站1925—2003年实测潮位资料分析珠江口海域风暴潮过程特征的基础上,结合潮位和潮差年极值频率分析结果构建了不同重现期典型风暴潮潮型。采用平面二维水动力数学模型模拟了不同重现期风暴潮和上游一般洪水组合条件下珠江口水域的流场,得出港珠澳大桥沿线各控制点处设计流速。     

钱塘江河口段盐水入侵的时空变化及预测模型

杭州城市供水85%取自钱塘江河口段,取水水质在枯水大潮期都不同程度地受到盐水入侵的威胁,分析钱塘江河口盐水入侵时空变化及研制二维数值预测模型对保障城市供水安全十分必要。根据钱塘江河口段实测水文氯度资料,分析了强潮作用下盐水入侵的时空变化特征;据此构建考虑斜压作用的二维水流、盐度输移的耦合数学模型,计算格式采用守恒性较好的有限体积法;在模型验证的基础上,数值分析了径流和潮汐对钱塘江河口段盐水入侵的影响,结果表明河口段的盐水入侵明显地受径流和潮汐的影响,据此可通过增大上游新安江水库的下泄流量抑制盐水入侵上溯以减小取水口氯度及超标时间,确保用水安全。     

结合糙率校正的河网水情数据同化

为解决河网水动力模型重要参数糙率与水力状态量水位、流量的同步校正问题,以糙率和水力状态量作为河网非线性动态系统变量,采用扩展卡尔曼滤波,构建结合糙率动态校正的河网水情数据同化模型.通过算例计算,系统分析了水位动态噪声水平、糙率动态噪声水平、糙率初始值及测站个数对模型校正的影响.结果表明:模型能够有效用于水位状态量的实时校正;靠近测站的糙率校正值趋于真值,远离测站的糙率校正值趋于初始值;通过调整糙率动态噪声水平,可以有效控制糙率的修正量,防止糙率修正过大而引起计算失效问题.     

含盐风暴潮溃堤洪水数值模拟及风险分析

为了研究三角洲河口风暴潮溃堤时的盐水运动规律,建立一、二维耦合的盐度数学模型对风暴潮溃堤时的盐水运动进行模拟。模型考虑洪泛区建筑物对盐水运动的影响以及溃口的渐变发展过程。用2008年多个测站的实测数据对河网模型的潮位和盐度计算结果进行了验证。将模型应用于珠江三角洲河网某近海溃口风暴潮溃堤的盐水运动模拟,并绘制了最大盐度等值面图。计算结果表明,该溃口大部分区域的溃堤积水盐度超过了4psu,因此,溃堤洪水的高盐度积水影响不容忽视。通过比较“溃堤”和“不溃堤”两种情况下的河网盐度计算结果,发现上游河道的溃堤分流增大了河道的纳潮量,促使涨潮量增大,增大了下游河网的咸潮上溯风险,减弱了上游来流对咸潮的压制效果。     

河道洪水实时概率预报模型与应用

通过数据同化方法合理地将实时水文观测数据融入到洪水预报模型中,可提高洪水预报模型的实时性和精确度。选取沿程断面流量、水位和糙率系数作为代表水流状态的基本粒子,以监测断面实测水位数据作为观测信息,建立了基于粒子滤波数据同化算法的河道洪水实时概率预报模型。模型应用于黄河中下游河道洪水预报计算的结果表明,采用粒子滤波方法同化观测水位后,不仅可以直接校正水位,同时也可以有效地校正流量和糙率,为未来时刻模型预报计算提供更准确的水流初始条件和糙率取值区间,进而有效地提高模型预报结果的精度,给出合理的概率预报区间。不同预报期的预报结果表明,随着预报期的增长,同化效果减弱,模型预报结果的精度会有所降低,水位概率预报结果受粒子间糙率不同的影响不确定性增加,而流量概率预报结果受给定模型边界条件的影响不确定性降低。所提出模型可以有效同化真实水位观测数据,适合应用于实际的洪水预报工作中。     

冰盖下矩形河道的综合糙率

综合糙率是采用曼宁公式确定河道水位和流量关系的关键参数。在河道冰封期,冰盖的出现增加了流动的阻力,明流条件下确定的综合糙率不再适用,需要重新估算。基于Einstein阻力划分过流断面的原理,冰盖下矩形河道的过水断面可划分为冰盖区、河床区和边壁区。根据总流的连续性方程,在确定各分区糙率系数、水力半径和断面面积的基础上,提出了冰盖下矩形河道综合糙率的计算公式。采用已有的试验水槽测量数据和天然河道实测资料对公式进行了验证,结果表明:公式计算的综合糙率与实测值吻合较好,与Einstein公式和Sabaneev公式相比,计算精度更高;对于冰封水流,宽浅河道采用分区水深代替水力半径进行简化计算的条件有别于明渠水流,在宽深比大于20时,计算结果才满足精度要求。     

淤泥质河口水沙运动数学模型相关问题

为研究淤泥质河口的水沙运动规律,建立了用于模拟淤泥质河口水沙运动的二维数学模型。该模型采用基于无结构三角网格下的有限体积法对方程组进行离散,结合Roe-MUSCL方法及时间方向的预测-校正格式,使模型在时空方向具有二阶计算精度。模型中分别采用不同方法计算粘性和非粘性泥沙的输移源项,并引入粘性泥沙的起动流速和冲刷率计算公式。采用已有的概化水槽试验数据对模型进行了初步验证。然后模拟了1995年10月小潮及大潮期间海河口的潮流运动与泥沙输移过程,计算得到的潮位、潮流速及含沙量过程与实测过程符合较好,结果表明模型能够用来模拟淤泥质河口粘性和非粘性泥沙的不平衡输移过程。同时还比较了泥沙输移源项的不同处理方式对计算结果的影响,计算表明在淤泥质河口水沙运动数学模型中必须同时考虑粘性和非粘性泥沙的输移。     

钱塘江尖山河段北岸治江工程对环境影响分析

采用实测资料分析、数模计算和比尺模型试验等手段,研究比较尖山河段顺直和弯曲两种河势对钱塘江河口上游河床冲淤、潮汐、潮流、涌潮、盐水入侵等重要环境因子的差异.从钱塘江河口治理“减少进潮量、增大山潮水比值”的原则及多目标综合开发治理的目标和消除治理过程中已出现的不利因素考虑,应该采取弯曲河势更为有利.     

关于不连序潮位系列设计潮位计算问题

对《堤防工程设计规范》中不连序潮位系列设计潮位计算方法进行了分析,认为该规范中的有关规定欠妥,提出了一种正确合理的计算方法。     

南运河畅流期与冰期河道糙率计算及变化规律分析

河道糙率是反映河流阻力的综合性系数,也是衡量河流能量损失大小的特征值。天然河道糙率一般由河道各种糙率单元综合组成。河道糙率是河道工程水力计算中的重要因素,关系到天然河道输水能力和行洪标准的确切评价。南运河处于漳卫南运河水系的最下游,河道全长309 km,是历史上京杭大运河的下段,也是引黄、引江南水北调东线方案的输水干线。通过对南运河畅流期及冰期糙率进行计算,并对畅流期与冰期糙率变化规律进行研究。结果表明,在畅流期,流量不同时,随着流量的增大,河道糙率逐渐变小。当增大至滩地过水(120 m3/以上)的情况下,河道糙率又有所增大。冰期河道糙率与期畅流期相比,冰盖下输水糙率值明显增大。研究河道畅流期与冰期糙率的变化规律,对南运河冰期输水监测具有指导意义。     

Flood Hazard Assessment for a Hyper-Tidal Estuary as a Function of Tide-Surge-Morphology Interaction

Astronomical high tides and meteorological storm surges present a combined flood hazard to communities and infrastructure. There is a need to incorporate the impact of tide-surge interaction and the spatial and temporal variability of the combined flood hazard in flood risk assessments, especially in hyper-tidal estuaries where the consequences of tide and storm surge concurrence can be catastrophic. Delft3D-FLOW is used to assess up-estuary variability in extreme water levels for a range of historical events of different severity within the Severn Estuary, southwest England as an example. The influence of the following on flood hazard is investigated: (i) event severity, (ii) timing of the peak of a storm surge relative to tidal high water and (iii) the temporal distribution of the storm surge component (here in termed the surge skewness). Results show when modelling a local area event severity is most important control on flood hazard. Tide-surge concurrence increases flood hazard throughout the estuary. Positive surge skewness can result in a greater variability of extreme water levels and residual surge component, the effects of which are magnified up-estuary by estuarine geometry to exacerbate flood hazard. The concepts and methodology shown here can be applied to other estuaries worldwide.     

Application of a fast stochastic storm surge model on estimating the high water level frequency in the Lower Rhine Delta

In the Lower Rhine Delta of the Netherlands, the high water level is driven by a joint impact of the downstream storm surge and the upstream fluvial discharge, and affected by the operation of existing man-made structures. In scenario-based risk assessment, a large number of stochastic scenarios of storm surges are required for estimating the high water level frequency. In this article, a fast computing stochastic storm surge model is applied to the gauge station of Hook of Holland in the west of the Netherlands. A fixed number of tides are considered in this model based on the information of historical storm surge events. Based on this model, a large number of stochastic storm surge scenarios are derived and forced into a one-dimensional hydrodynamic model of the Netherlands, resulting in peak water levels in Rotterdam, the most vulnerable city in the delta. These peak water levels are statistically analyzed and converted to the high water level frequency curve in Rotterdam. The high water level frequency curve in Rotterdam tends to a much lower design water level compared to the official design water level that is used to design the dikes and structures for protection of the city. Moreover, there is a significant difference in the high water level frequency curves due to the fact that the stochastic storm surge model considers different numbers of tides. This highlights the critical impact of the storm surge duration on the high water level frequency in the Lower Rhine Delta.     

Simulation of the Hurricane Dennis storm surge and considerations for vertical resolution

A high-resolution storm surge model of Apalachee Bay in the northeastern Gulf of Mexico is developed using an unstructured grid finite-volume coastal ocean model (FVCOM). The model is applied to the case of Hurricane Dennis (July 2005). This storm caused underpredicted severe flooding of the Apalachee Bay coastal area and upriver inland communities. Accurate resolution of complicated geometry of the coastal region and waterways in the model reveals processes responsible for the unanticipated high storm tide in the area. Model results are validated with available observations of the storm tide. Model experiments suggest that during Dennis, excessive flooding in the coastal zone and the town of St. Marks, located up the St. Marks River, was caused by additive effects of coincident high tides (~10–15% of the total sea-level rise) and a propagating shelf wave (~30%) that added to the locally wind-generated surge. Wave setup, the biggest uncertainty, is estimated on the basis of empirical and analytical relations. The Dennis case is then used to test the sensitivity of the model solution to vertical discretization. A suite of model experiments is performed with varying numbers of vertical sigma (σ) levels, with different distribution of σ-levels within the water column and a varying bottom drag coefficient. The major finding is that the storm surge solution is more sensitive to resolution within the velocity shear zone at mid-depths compared to resolution of the upper and bottom layer or values of the bottom drag coefficient.     

长江口可能最高潮位研究

以长江口高桥站为研究对象,根据历史资料,用经验分析和统计结合起来的方法,建立风暴潮增水模式,依据流体动力学原理建立二维风暴潮天文潮综合水位模式,尔后以极值气象因子为基础,利用因子组合法及台风位移法分别设计极端台风模型,推算高桥站最大增水及可能最高潮位,并以水文统计频率分析成果作为研究确定长江口ＰＭＴ的佐证。     

Hydrodynamic Response of Northeastern Gulf of Mexico to Hurricanes

The northeastern Gulf of Mexico in the USA is extremely susceptible to the impacts of tropical cyclones because of its unique geometric and topographic features. Focusing on Hurricanes Ivan (2004) and Katrina (2005), this paper has addressed four scientific questions on this area’s response to hurricanes: (1) How does the shallow, abandoned Mississippi delta contribute to the storm surge? (2) What was the controlling factor that caused the record-high storm surge of Hurricane Katrina? (3) Why are the responses of an estuary to Hurricanes Ivan and Katrina so different from the corresponding surges on the open coast? (4) How would the storm surge differ if Hurricane Katrina had taken a different course? Guided by field observations of winds, waves, water levels, and currents, two state-of-the-art numerical models for storm surges and wind waves have been coupled to hindcast the relevant hydrodynamic conditions, including storm surges, surface waves, and depth-averaged currents. Fairly good agreement between the modeled and measured surge hydrographs was found. The quantitative numerical simulations and simple qualitative analysis have revealed that the record-high storm surge of Hurricane Katrina was caused by the interaction of the surge with the extremely shallow, ancient deltaic lobe of Mississippi River. A hypothetical scenario formed by shifting the path of Hurricane Katrina to the observed path of Hurricane Frederic (1979) resulted in a much smaller surge than that observed in coastal Mississippi and Louisiana. However, this scenario did still result in a high surge near the head of Mobile Bay. One of the important lessons learned from Hurricane Katrina is that the Saffir–Simpson scale should be systematically revised to reflect the topographic and geometric features of a complex, heterogeneous coast, including the possible surge amplification in an estuary or a submerged river delta.     

Hurricane storm surge simulations for Tampa Bay

Using a high resolution, three-dimensional, primitive equation, finite volume coastal ocean model with flooding and drying capabilities, supported by a merged bathymetric-topographic data set and driven by prototypical hurricane winds and atmospheric pressure fields, we investigated the storm surge responses for the Tampa Bay, Florida, vicinity and their sensitivities to point of landfall, direction and speed of approach, and intensity. All of these factors were found to be important. Flooding potential by wind stress and atmospheric pressure induced surge is significant for a category 2 hurricane and catastrophic for a category 4 hurricane. Tide, river, and wave effects are additive, making the potential for flood-induced damage even greater. Since storm surge sets up as a slope to the sea surface, the highest surge tends to occur over the upper reaches of the bay, Old Tampa Bay and Hillsborough Bay in particular. For point of landfall sensitivity, the worst case is when the hurricane center is positioned north of the bay mouth such that the maximum winds associated with the eye wall are at the bay mouth. Northerly (southerly) approaching storms yield larger (smaller) surges since the winds initially set up (set down) water level. As a hybrid between the landfall and direction sensitivity experiments, a storm transiting up the bay axis from southwest to northeast yields the smallest surge, debunking a misconception that this is the worst Tampa Bay flooding case. Hurricanes with slow (fast) translation speeds yield larger (smaller) surges within Tampa Bay due to the time required to redistribute mass.     

Modeling the impact of land reclamation on storm surges in Bohai Sea,China

A nested model for the simulation of tides and storm surges in the Bohai Sea, China, has been developed based on the three-dimensional finite-volume coastal ocean model. The larger domain covers the entire Yellow Sea and Bohai Sea with a horizontal resolution of ~10 km, and the smaller domain focuses on the Bohai Sea with a fine resolution up to ~300 m. For the four representative storm surges caused by extratropical storms and typhoons, the simulated surge heights are in good agreement with observations at coastal tide gauges. A series of sensitivity experiments are carried out to assess the influence of coastline change due to land reclamation in recent decades on water levels during storm surges. Simulation results suggest that changes in coastline cause changes in the amplitude and phase of the tidal elevation, and fluctuations of surge height after the peak stage of the storm surges. Hence, for the assessment of the influence of coastline changes on the total water level during storm surges, the amplitudes and phases of both the tidal and surge heights need to be taken into account. For the three major ports in the Bohai Bay, model results suggest that land reclamation has created a coastline structure that favors increasing the maximum water level by 0.1–0.2 m. Considering that during the storm surges the total water level is close to or even exceeds the warning level for these ports, further increasing the maximum water level by 0.1–0.2 m has the potential to cause severe damages and losses in these ports.

     

Dynamic issues in the SE South America storm surge modeling

The ability of the SMARA storm surge numerical prediction system to reproduce local effects in estuarine and coastal winds was recently improved by considering one-way coupling of the air–sea momentum exchange through the wave stress, and best forecasting practices for downscaling. The inclusion of long period atmospheric pressure forcing in tide and tide/surge calculations corrected a systematic error in the surge, produced by the South Atlantic Ocean quasi-stationary pressure patterns. The maximum forecast range for the storm surge at Buenos Aires provided by the real-time use of water level observations is approximately 12 h. The best available water level prediction is the 6-h forecast (nowcast) based on the closest water level observations. The 24-h forecast from the numerical models slightly improves this nowcast. Although the numerical forecast accuracy degrades after the first 48 h, the improvement to the full range observation-based prediction is maintained at the inner Río de la Plata area and extends to the first 3 days at the intermediate navigation channels.     

On the accuracy of atmospheric forcing for extra-tropical storm surge prediction

The ability of the SMARA storm surge numerical prediction system to reproduce local effects in estuarine and coastal winds was recently improved by considering one-way coupling of the air–sea momentum exchange through the wave stress, and best forecasting practices for downscaling. The inclusion of long period atmospheric pressure forcing in tide and tide/surge calculations corrected a systematic error in the surge, produced by the South Atlantic Ocean quasi-stationary pressure patterns. The maximum forecast range for the storm surge at Buenos Aires provided by the real-time use of water level observations is approximately 12 h. The best available water level prediction is the 6-h forecast (nowcast) based on the closest water level observations. The 24-h forecast from the numerical models slightly improves this nowcast. Although the numerical forecast accuracy degrades after the first 48 h, the improvement to the full range observation-based prediction is maintained at the inner Río de la Plata area and extends to the first 3 days at the intermediate navigation channels.