Monsoon control on trace metal fluxes in the deep Arabian Sea

Particulate fluxes of aluminium, iron, magnesium and titanium were measured using six time-series sediment traps deployed in the eastern, central and western Arabian Sea. Annual Al fluxes at shallow and deep trap depths were 0.47 and 0.46 g m^-2 in the western Arabian Sea, and 0.33 and 0.47 g m^-2 in the eastern Arabian Sea. There is a difference of about 0.9–1.8 g m^-2y^-1 in the lithogenic fluxes determined analytically (residue remaining after leaching out all biogenic particles) and estimated from the Al fluxes in the western Arabian Sea. This arises due to higher fluxes of Mg (as dolomite) in the western Arabian Sea (6–11 times higher than the eastern Arabian Sea). The estimated dolomite fluxes at the western Arabian Sea site range from 0.9 to 1.35gm^-2y^-1. Fe fluxes in the Arabian Sea were less than that of the reported atmospheric fluxes without any evidence for the presence of labile fraction/excess of Fe in the settling particles. More than 75% of Al, Fe, Ti and Mg fluxes occurred during the southwest (SW) monsoon in the western Arabian Sea. In the eastern Arabian Sea, peak Al, Fe, Mg and Ti fluxes were recorded during both the northeast (NE) and SW monsoons. During the SW monsoon, there exists a time lag of around one month between the increases in lithogenic and dolomite fluxes. Total lithogenic fluxes increase when the southern branch of dust bearing northwesterlies is dragged by the SW monsoon winds to the trap locations. However, the dolomite fluxes increase only when the northern branch of the northwesterlies (which carries a huge amount of dolomite accounting 60% of the total dust load) is dragged, from further north, by SW monsoon winds. The potential for the use of Mg/Fe ratio as a paleo-monsoonal proxy is examined.     

Fluxes of material in the Arabian Sea and Bay of Bengal — Sediment trap studies

In order to investigate how monsoons influence biogeochemical fluxes in the ocean, twelve time-series sediment traps were deployed at six locations in the northern Indian Ocean. In this paper we present particle flux data collected during May 1986 to November 1991 and November 1987 to November 1992 in the Arabian Sea and Bay of Bengal respectively. Particle fluxes were high during both the SW and NE monsoons in the Arabian Sea as well as in the Bay of Bengal. The mechanisms of particle production and transport, however, differ in both the regions. In the Arabian Sea, average annual fluxes are over 50gm^-2y^-1 in the western Arabian Sea and less than 27gm^-2 y^-1 in the central part. Biogenic matter is dominant at sites located near upwelling centers, and is less degraded during peak flux periods. High particle fluxes in the offshore areas of the Arabian Sea are caused by injection of nutrients into the euphotic zone due to wind-induced mixed layer deepening. In the Bay of Bengal, average annual fluxes are highest in the central Bay of Bengal (over 50gm^-2y^-1) and are least in the southern part of the Bay (37gm^-2y^-1). Particle flux patterns coincide with freshwater discharge patterns of the Ganges-Brahmaputra river system. Opal/carbonate and organic carbon/carbonate carbon ratios increase during the SW monsoon due to variations in salinity and productivity patterns in the surface waters as a result of increased freshwater and nutrient input from rivers. Comparison of S years data show that fluxes of biogenic and lithogenic particulate matter are higher in the Bay of Bengal even though the Arabian Sea is considered to be more productive. Our results indicate that in the northern Indian Ocean interannual variability in organic carbon flux is directly related to the strength and intensity of the SW monsoon while its transfer from the upper layers to the deep sea is partly controlled by input of lithogenic matter from adjacent continents.     

Circulation and water masses of the Arabian Sea

The dynamics and thermodynamics of the surface layer of the Arabian Sea, north of about 10N, are dominated by the monsoon-related annual cycle of air-sea fluxes of momentum and heat. The currents in open-sea regime of this layer can be largely accounted for by Ekman drift and the thermal field is dominated by local heat fluxes. The geostrophic currents in open-sea subsurface regime also show a seasonal cycle and there is some evidence that signatures of this cycle appear as deep as 1000 m. The forcing due to Ekman suction is an important mechanism for the geostrophic currents in the central and western parts of the Sea. Recent studies suggest that the eastern part is strongly influenced by the Rossby waves radiated by the Kelvin waves propagating along the west coast of India. The circulation in the coastal region off Oman is driven mainly by local winds and there is no remotely driven western boundary current. Local wind-driving is also important to the coastal circulation off western India during the southwest monsoon but not during the northeast monsoon when a strong (approximately 7 × 10⁶m³/sec) current moves poleward against weak winds. This current is driven by a pressure gradient which forms along this coast during the northeast monsoon due to either thermohaline-forcing or due to the arrival of Kelvin waves from the Bay of Bengal. The present speculation about flow of bottom water (deeper than about 3500 m) in the Arabian Sea is that it moves northward and upwells into the layer of North Indian Deep Water (approximately 1500–3500m). It is further speculated that the flow in this layer consists of a poleward western boundary current and a weak equatorward flow in the interior. It is not known if there is an annual cycle associated with the deep and the bottom water circulation.     

The value ofC efor the Arabian Sea during summer monsoon

We estimate, from the moisture budget the bulk aerodynamic coefficient for latent heat flux (C _e) during the monsoon season over the central Arabian Sea. The average value ofC _eunder active monsoon conditions was found to be 2.25 × 10⁻³ which is nearly 60% higher than those previously used.     

Air-sea exchange of CO2 in the Gulf of Kutch,northern Arabian Sea based on bomb-carbon in corals and tree rings

Radiocarbon analyses were carried out in the annual bands of a 40 year old coral collected from the Gulf of Kutch (22.6°N, 70°E) in the northern Arabian Sea and in the annual rings of a teak tree from Thane (19°14′N, 73°24′E) near Bombay. These measurements were made in order to obtain the rates of air-sea exchange of CO₂ and the advective mixing of water in the Gulf of Kutch. The Δ¹⁴C peak in the Thane tree occurs in the year 1964, with a value of ∼630‰, significantly lower than that of the mean atmospheric Δ¹⁴C of the northern hemisphere (∼ 1000‰). The radiocarbon time series of the coral was modelled considering the supply of carbon and radiocarbon to the gulf through air-sea exchange and advective water transport from the open Arabian Sea. A reasonable fit for the coral data was obtained with an air-sea CO₂ exchange rate of 11–12 mol m⁻² yr⁻¹, and an advective velocity of 28 m yr⁻¹ between the Arabian Sea and the Gulf of Kutch; this was based on a model generated time series for radiocarbon in the Arabian Sea. The deduced velocity (∼ 28 m yr⁻¹) of the advective transport of water between the gulf and the Arabian Sea is much lower than the surface tidal current velocity in this region, but can be understood in terms of net fluxes of carbon and radiocarbon to the gulf to match the observed coral Δ¹⁴C time series.     

Air-sea interaction over the tropical Indian Ocean during several contrasting monsoon seasons

Monthly mean anomaly fields of various parameters like sea surface temperature, air temperature, wind stress, effective radiation at the surface, heat gain over the ocean and the total heat loss between a good and bad monsoon composite and the evaporation rates over the Arabian Sea and southern hemisphere have been studied over the tropical Indian Ocean. The mean rates of evaporation on a seasonal scale over the Arabian Sea during a good and bad monsoon composites were equal (about 2·48 × 10¹⁰ tons/day). The evaporation rates over the southern hemisphere were greater during all the months. The mean evaporation rates over the southern hemisphere on a seasonal scale for the good and bad monsoon composites were 4·4 × 10¹⁰ and 4·6 × 10¹⁰ tons/day respectively. The maximum evaporation rates over the southern hemisphere were observed in August. The anomalies of wind stress, effective radiation at the surface and the heat gain over the ocean also exhibit large variations in August, as compared to other monsoon months.     

Seasonal and interannual variability of phytoplankton pigment in the Laccadive (Lakshadweep) Sea as observed by the Coastal Zone Color scanner

Based on Coastal Zone Color Scanner data from November 1978 through December 1981, the seasonal cycle of phytoplankton pigment in the upper part of the euphotic zone is established for the offshore Laccadive Sea. Year-round, the pigment content is low and the seasonal range is small, following the pattern of the nutrient-poor Arabian Sea to the west. Apparently, indigenous phytoplankton blooms are absent. July and August, however, were poorly studied because of cloud cover. Interannual differences during the northeast monsoon and the spring intermonsoon periods are minor. The abundant phytoplankton caused by the upwelling off India during the southwest monsoon remains essentially restricted to the shelf, but there are occasional large, zonal outbreaks into the Laccadive Sea, as well as others advected to the south of India. Visual inspection of the raw CZCS scenes for June through November 1982–1985, with almost no data until August or even September, shows such outbreaks of pigment-rich water to be common. Inspection of monthly SeaWiFS images for 1997 through part of 2001 confirms the absence of indigenous phytoplankton blooms.     

The influence of Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) on biogeochemistry of carbon in the Arabian Sea during 1997–1998

Data on ocean color chlorophylla (Chl a) obtained using Sea-viewing Wide Field of view Sensor (SeaWiFS), sea surface temperature (SST) by Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR), and sea surface height (SSH) by TOPEX/POSEIDON were analyzed to examine the influence of Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) on the physical and biogeochemical processes with special reference to phytoplankton primary production and air-sea fluxes of carbon dioxide in the Arabian Sea. Positive SST anomalies (SSTA) were found in the Arabian Sea (0.4 to 1.8°C) with higher values in the southwestern Arabian Sea that decreased towards north. The SSH anomalies (SSHA) and turbulent kinetic energy anomalies (TKEA) suggest decreased mixing during the IOD compared to the normal period. Chlorophylla displayed significant negative correlations with SSTA and SSHA in the Arabian Sea. Consistently, Chla showed negative anomalies (low Chl a) during the IOD period which could be due to reduced inputs of nutrients. The photic zone integrated primary production decreased by 30% during the IOD period compared to the normal whereas pCO₂ levels were higher (by 10–20μatm). However, sea to air fluxes were lower by 10% during the IOD period due to prevailing weaker winds. Primary production seems to be the key process controlling the surface pCO₂ levels in the Arabian Sea. In future, the influence of IOD on ecosystem structure, export production and bacterial respiration rates are to be probed throughin situ time-series observations.     

Seasonal controls on surface pCO2 in the central and eastern Arabian Sea

The variability in partial pressure of carbon dioxide (pCO₂) and its control by biological and physical processes in the mixed layer (ML) of the central and eastern Arabian Sea during inter-monsoon, northeast monsoon, and southwest monsoon seasons were studied. The ML varied from 80–120 m during NE monsoon, 60–80 m and 20–30 m during SW- and inter-monsoon seasons, respectively, and the variability resulted from different physical processes. Significant seasonal variability was found in pCO₂ levels. During SW monsoon, coastal waters contain two contrasting regimes; (a) pCO₂ levels of 520–685 μatm were observed in the SW coast of India, the highest found so far from this region, driven by intense upwelling and (b) low levels of pCO₂ (266 μatm) were found associated with monsoonal fresh water influx. It varied in ranges of 416–527 μatm and 375–446 μatm during inter- and NE monsoon, respectively, in coastal waters with higher values occurring in the north. The central Arabian Sea pCO₂ levels were 351–433, 379–475 and 385–432 μatm during NE-inter and SW monsoon seasons, respectively. The mixed layer pCO₂ relations with temperature, oxygen, chlorophylla and primary production revealed that the former is largely regulated by physical processes during SW- and NE monsoon whereas both physical and biological processes are important in inter-monsoon. Application of Louanchiet al (1996) model revealed that the mixing effect is the dominant during monsoons, however, the biological effect is equally significant during SW monsoon whereas thermodynamics and fluxes influence during inter-monsoons.     

Terrigenous plant wax inputs to the Arabian Sea: Implications for the reconstruction of winds associated with the Indian Monsoon

We have determined the accumulation rates and carbon isotopic compositions (δ¹³C) of long-chain (C₂₄-C₃₂) terrigenous plant wax fatty acids in 19 surface sediment samples geographically distributed throughout the Arabian Sea in order to assess the relationship between plant wax inputs and the surrounding monsoon wind systems. Both the accumulation rate data and the δ¹³C data show that there are three primary eolian sources of plant waxes to the Arabian Sea: Africa, Asia, and the Arabian Peninsula. These sources correspond to the three major wind systems in this region: the summer (Southwest) monsoon, the winter (Northeast) monsoon, and the summer northwesterlies that blow over the Arabian Peninsula. In addition, plant waxes are fluvially supplied to the Gulf of Oman and the Eastern African margin by nearby rivers. Plant wax δ¹³C values reflect the vegetation types of the continental source regions. Greater than 75% of the waxes from Africa and Asia are derived from C₄ plants. Waxes delivered by northwesterly winds reflect a greater influence (25-40%) of C₃ vegetation, likely derived from the Mesopotamian region. These data agree well with previously published studies of eolian dust deposition, particularly of dolomite derived from the Arabian Peninsula and the Mesopotamian region, in surface sediments of the Arabian Sea. The west-to-east gradient of plant wax δ¹³C and dolomite accumulation rates are separately useful indicators of the relationship between the northwesterly winds and the winds of the Southwest monsoon. Combined, however, these two proxies could provide a powerful tool for the reconstruction of both southwest monsoon strength as well as Mesopotamian aridity.     

Sea-Surface Temperatures and the History of Monsoon Upwelling in the Northwest Arabian Sea during the Last 500,000 Years

Arabian Sea sediments record changes in the upwelling system off Arabia, which is driven by the monsoon circulation system over the NW Indian Ocean. In accordance with climate models, and differing from other large upwelling areas of the tropical ocean, a 500,000-yr record of productivity at ODP Site 723 shows consistently stronger upwelling during interglaciations than during glaciations. Sea-surface temperatures (SSTs) reconstructed from the alkenone unsaturation index (U^K′₃₇) are high (up to 27°C) during interglaciations and low (22-24°C) during glaciations, indicating a glacial-interglacial temperature change of >3°C in spite of the dampening effect of enhanced or weakened upwelling. The increased productivity is attributed to stronger monsoon winds during interglacial times relative to glacial times, whereas the difference in SSTs must be unrelated to upwelling and to the summer monsoon intensity. The winter (NE) monsoon was more effective in cooling the Arabian Sea during glaciations then it is now.     

Abundance and relationship of bacteria with transparent exopolymer particles during the 1996 summer monsoon in the Arabian Sea

Bacterial abundance and production, numbers, sizes and concentrations of transparent exopolymer particles (TEP) and total organic carbon (TOC) were measured during the 1996 summer monsoon to understand the relationship between TEP, the most labile particulate organic carbon, and bacteria. While high regional variability in the vertical distribution of TOC was discernible, TEP concentrations were high in surface waters at 18–20°N along 64°E with concentrations well over 25 mg alginic acid equivalents I⁻¹ due to upwelling induced productivity. Their concentrations decreased with depth and were lower between 200 and 500 m. Bacterial concentrations were up to 1.99 × 10⁸ I^–1 in the surface waters and decreased by an order of magnitude or more at depths below 500 m. A better relationship has been found between bacterial abundance and concentrations of TEP than between bacteria and TOC, indicating that bacterial metabolism is fueled by availability of TEP in the Arabian Sea. Assuming a carbon assimilation of 33%, bacterial carbon demand (BCD) is estimated to be 1.017 to 4.035 g C m^–2 d^–1 in the surface waters. The observed TEP concentrations appear to be sufficient in meeting the surface and subsurface BCD in the northern Arabian Sea.     

A model study of seasonal mixed-layer primary production in the Arabian Sea

We combined a surface irradiance model with a non-spectral photosynthesisirradiance model to estimate the daily, average rate of mixed-layer primary production in the Arabian Sea for the 15th day of months at the end of the northeast monsoon, the southwest monsoon, and the fall and spring inter-monsoons. Our model experiment uses climatologies of cloud cover, mixed-layer thickness, and satellite ocean-color observations of phytoplankton biomass. Modelled surface radiation is at an annual maximum in May beneath nearly cloud-free skies just prior to the summer solstice. The model estimate of surface radiation diminishes through the southwest monsoon over most of the northern Arabian Sea to an annual minimum in August due to intense cloudiness. In agreement with previous ship-based measurements, the photosynthesis-irradiance model predicts that the mixed-layer primary production in the Arabian Sea is extremely seasonal, and peaks annually during the southwest monsoon to the north-west of the atmospheric Findlater Jet and along the coast of Somalia. Northern Arabian Sea maxima predicted for both the summer and winter monsoons are separated by periods of low mixed-layer primary production, the fall and spring inter-monsoons. The annual cycles of modelled mixed-layer primary production differ by region in the Arabian Sea due to varying monsoon influence and circulation dynamics.     

Late Quaternary changes in surface productivity and oxygen minimum zone (OMZ) in the northwestern Arabian Sea: Micropaleontologic and sedimentary record at ODP site 728A

Changes in the abundance of selected planktic foraminiferal species and some sedimentological parameters at ODP site 728A were examined to understand the fluctuations in the surface productivity and deep sea oxygenation in the NW Arabian Sea during last ∼540 kyr. The increased relative abundances of high fertility taxa, i.e., Globigerinita glutinata and Globigerina bulloides mainly during interglacial intervals indicate intense upwelling. Strong SW summer monsoon probably increased the upwelling in the western Arabian Sea during interglacial intervals and caused high surface productivities due to the lateral transport of eutrophic waters. Most of the glacial periods (i.e., MIS 2, 4, 6, 8 and 12) are characterized by higher relative abundances of Neogloboquadrina pachyderma and Neogloboquadrina dutertrei associated with Globigerinoides ruber. The more stratified condition and deep mixed layer due to increased NE winter monsoon are mainly responsible for the higher relative abundances of N. pachyderma during glacial periods. Some of the glacial intervals (i.e., MIS 6 and 8) are also characterized by pteropod spikes reflecting deepening of aragonite compensation depth (ACD) and relatively less intense oxygen minimum zone (OMZ) in this region due to deep sea mixing and thermocline ventilation, and relatively less intense surface productivity during winter monsoon. The interglacial periods are largely devoid of pteropod shells indicating more aragonite dissolution due to increased intensity of OMZ in the northwestern Arabian Sea.     

海洋粘土矿物与颗石藻Emiliania huxleyi共培养的实验研究

颗石藻是海洋中广泛分布的超微型浮游藻,经生物矿化作用形成的碳酸钙质颗石,在古海洋学研究中具有重要意义。海洋粘土矿物与有机质的有机-无机相互作用在全球碳循环中扮演着重要角色。本文选取广泛分布于海洋的赫氏颗石藻Emiliania huxleyi与海洋粘土矿物中具有代表性的伊利石和蒙脱石共培养。通过对颗石藻生长曲线和Sr/Ca、Mg/Ca元素比值、颗石藻与粘土矿物样品的紫外可见光吸收光谱、红外吸收光谱和矿物物相等分析,研究海洋粘土矿物与颗石藻的相互作用规律。通过研究表明伊利石对颗石藻的影响较小,蒙脱石因对营养元素的吸附和颗石藻的絮凝作用对颗石藻的生长和Sr/Ca、Mg/Ca元素比值影响较大。颗石藻代谢分泌的生物分子未能通过层间插层作用进入伊利石层间,颗石藻分泌的生物分子可通过插层作用进入并储存于蒙脱石层间,海洋粘土矿物中的蒙脱石与海洋微生物的相互作用值得地球微生物家关注,可能有助于对古海洋环境的认识。     

Temporal and spatial variations in water flow and sediment load in Narmada River Basin, India: natural and man-made factors

The Narmada River flows through the Deccan volcanics and transports water and sediments to the adjacent Arabian Sea. In a first-ever attempt, spatial and temporal (annual, seasonal, monthly and daily) variations in water discharge and sediment loads of Narmada River and its tributaries and the probable causes for these variations are discussed. The study has been carried out with data from twenty-two years of daily water discharge at nineteen locations and sediment concentrations data at fourteen locations in the entire Narmada River Basin. Water flow in the river is a major factor influencing sediment loads in the river. The monsoon season, which accounts for 85 to 95% of total annual rainfall in the basin, is the main source of water flow in the river. Almost 85 to 98% of annual sediment loads in the river are transported during the monsoon season (June to November). The average annual sediment flux to the Arabian Sea at Garudeshwar (farthest downstream location) is 34.29×10⁶ t year⁻¹ with a water discharge of 23.57 km³ year⁻¹. These numbers are the latest and revised estimates for Narmada River. Water flow in the river is influenced by rainfall, catchment area and groundwater inputs, whereas rainfall intensity, geology/soil characteristics of the catchment area and presence of reservoirs/dams play a major role in sediment discharge. The largest dam in the basin, namely Sardar Sarovar Dam, traps almost 60–80% of sediments carried by the river before it reaches the Arabian Sea.     

A coupled physical-biological-chemical model for the Indian Ocean

A coupled physical-biological-chemical model has been developed at C-MMACS. for studying the time-variation of primary productivity and air-sea carbon-dioxide exchange in the Indian Ocean. The physical model is based on the Modular Ocean Model, Version 2 (MOM2) and the biological model describes the nonlinear dynamics of a 7-component marine ecosystem. The chemical model includes dynamical equation for the evolution of dissolved inorganic carbon and total alkalinity. The interaction between the biological and chemical model is through the Redfield ratio. The partial pressure of carbon dioxide (pCO₂) of the surface layer is obtained from the chemical equilibrium equations of Penget al 1987. Transfer coefficients for air-sea exchange of CO₂ are computed dynamically based on the wind speeds. The coupled model reproduces the high productivity observed in the Arabian Sea off the Somali and Omani coasts during the Southwest (SW) monsoon. The entire Arabian Sea is an outgassing region for CO₂ in spite of high productivity with transfer rates as high as 80 m-mol C/m² /day during SW monsoon near the Somali Coast on account of strong winds.     

Latent and sensible heat fluxes under active and weak phases of the summer monsoon of 1986

An analysis of the meteorological data collected by the research vessel ORV Sagarkanya for the mean latent and sensible heat fluxes over the Arabian Sea has indicated appreciable changes between active and weak phases of the southwest monsoon of 1986. We suggest that: (a) the presence of a core of low level winds associated with the Somali jet and its southward shift during the season, along with (b) a ridge in surface pressure over the central Arabian Sea could be responsible for the deficit in monsoon rainfall along the west coast of India in 1986.     

Source of a freshwater influx at the last glacial maximum in the Indian Ocean: An alternative interpretation

Recent analysis of a sediment core in the eastern Arabian Sea revealed a negative pulse of about 1% in the δ¹⁸O value of the planktonic Foraminifera around the last glacial maximum (LGM). This pulse has been attributed to (i) increased runoff into the Bay of Bengal from the east-flowing south Indian rivers due to enhancement of the northeast winter monsoon, and (ii) an increase in Arabian sea-surface temperature caused by the weakening of the southwest monsoon at the LGM. We show that the speculation on which the latter hypothesis is based, is not supported by observational data and cannot fully account for the observed magnitude of the spike. With a view to assessing the validity of the first mechanism, we have modelled the mixed layer of the Bay of Bengal as a well-mixed box. The model calculations show that to account for the pulse requires a change of about 10% in either the annual rate of river input or its isotopic composition. For the northeast monsoon to account for the pulse it would mean that the rainfall should have increased by a factor of five to ten during the LGM. No evidence for such an increase is indicated in the available palaeoclimatic data. We explain the freshwater spike by invoking increased discharge of glacial meltwater from the Tibetan plateau into the Bay of Bengal. We show that the proxy climate data from the Indo-Tibetan region that has become available recently provides substantial evidence for the occurrence of a warming event around the LGM, which supports our mechanism.     

Did the Indo‐Asian summer monsoon decrease during the Holocene following insolation?

A few studies from the western Arabian Sea indicate that the Indian summer (or southwest) monsoon (ISM), after attaining its maximum intensity at ca. 9 ka, declined during the Holocene, as did insolation. In contrast, earlier and later observations from both the eastern and the western Arabian Sea do not support this inference. Analysis of multiple proxies of productivity in a new sediment core from the western Arabian Sea fails to confirm the earlier, single‐proxy (e.g. abundance of Globigerina bulloides) based, inference of the Holocene weakening of ISM, following insolation. The reason for the observed decreasing trend in foraminiferal abundance – the basis for the earlier inference – could be the favouring of silicate rather than carbonate productivity by the increased ISM wind strength. Although ISM exhibits several multi‐millennial scale fluctuations, there is no evidence from several multi‐proxy data to conclude that it declined during the Holocene; this is consistent with the phase lag analysis of longer time series of monsoon proxies. Thus, on sub‐Milankovitch timescales, ISM did not follow insolation, highlighting the importance of internal feedbacks. A comparison with East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) records suggests that both ISM and EASM varied in unison, implying common forcing factors on such longer timescales. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.