Shielded by the wind: the influence of the interstellar medium on the environment of Earth

We report on the recent studies on the long-term influence of cosmic rays on the Earth's environment. While on short time-scales solar activity is the driver for atmospheric changes suspected to be due to cosmic rays, for long time-scales the heliosphere, i.e. the circumsolar region occupied by the expanding part of the Sun's atmosphere, has to be considered. The heliosphere is identified as an important shield against interstellar influences and hazards. It has been demonstrated by quantitative modelling that a change of the interstellar medium surrounding the heliosphere as a result of the Sun's quasi-Keplerian motion around the galactic center triggers significant changes of planetary environments caused by enhanced fluxes of neutral atoms as well as by the increased cosmic ray fluxes. We give a compilation of recent space science results of interest to the atmospheric science community.     

根据VLF的相位变化确定D层宇宙线强度变化的可能性

银河宇宙线是电离层D层的重要电离源之一,它的急剧变化会使D层电子密度发生改变,从而影响VLF波的夜间传播。本文根据在西安接收英国GBR台的VLF波（16kc/s）的相位变化,讨论了在有宇宙线暴（Forbush下降）和强磁暴时,中纬D层电子浓度的变化和相应的VLF波的相位漂移;并根据VLF的相位变化,估计了相应的宇宙线强度变化。由于D层中的宇宙线强度变化通常难于观测,通过VLF波的相位漂移来估计它,这是很有意义的。所以,VLF波的传播效应可能成为间接探测宇宙线强度变化的有用工具。     

Effects of solar and geomagnetic activities in variations of power spectra of electrical and meteorological parameters in the near-Earth atmosphere in Kamchatka during October 2003 solar events

We perform spectral analysis of records of meteorological (temperature, humidity, pressure of the atmosphere) and electrical (strength of quasi-static electric field and electric conductivity of air) parameters observed simultaneously at the Paratunka observatory during the solar events of October 21–31, 2003. Also, we use simultaneous records of X-ray fluxes of solar radiation, galactic cosmic rays, and the horizontal component of the geomagnetic field. We show that the power spectra of the meteorological parameters under fine weather conditions involve oscillations with a period of thermal tidal waves (T ～ 12 and 24 h) caused by the influx of thermal radiation of the Sun. During strong solar flares and geomagnetic storm of October 29–31 with a prevailing component of T ～ 24 h, their spectra involve an additional component of T ～ 48 h (the period of planetary-scale waves). With the development of solar and geomagnetic activities, the power spectra of atmospheric electric conductivity and electric field stress involve components of both thermal tidal and planetary-scale waves, which vary highly by intensity. In the power spectra of galactic cosmic rays accompanying the strong solar flares, components with T ～ 48 h were dominant with the appearance of additional (weaker by intensity) components with T ～ 24 h. The simultaneous amplification of components with T ～ 48 h in the power spectra of electric conductivity and electric field strength provides evidence of the fact that the lower troposphere is mainly ionized by galactic cosmic rays during strong solar flares and geomagnetic storms. The specified oscillation period with T ～ 48 h in their spectra, as well as in the spectra of X-ray radiation of the sun, is apparently caused by the dynamics of solar and geomagnetic activities with this time scale.     

Global Survey Method for the World Network of Neutron Monitors

One of the variants of the global survey method developed and used for many years at the Institute of Terrestrial Magnetism, Ionosphere, and Radio Wave Propagation of the Russian Academy of Sciences is described. Data from the world network of neutron monitors for every hour from July 1957 to the present has been processed by this method. A consistent continuous series of hourly characteristics of variation of the density and vector anisotropy of cosmic rays with a rigidity of 10 GV is obtained. A database of Forbush decreases in galactic cosmic rays caused by large-scale disturbances of the interplanetary medium for more than half a century has been created based on this series. The capabilities of the database make it possible to perform a correlation analysis of various parameters of the space environment (characteristics of the Sun, solar wind, and interplanetary magnetic field) with the parameters of cosmic rays and to study their interrelationships in the solar–terrestrial space. The features of reception coefficients for different stations are considered, which allows the transition from variations according to ground measurements to variations of primary cosmic rays. The advantages and disadvantages of this variant of the global survey method and the opportunities for its development and improvement are assessed. The developed method makes it possible to minimize the problems of the network of neutron monitors and to make significant use of its advantages.     

Possible Contribution of Variations in the Galactic Cosmic Ray Flux to the Global Temperature Rise in Recent Decades

The field area of the Earth’s lower (<3.2 km) clouds is shown to correlate significantly with the intensity of galactic cosmic rays in 1983–2010, with the sign of correlation reversing in 2003. The same effect is discovered in the correlation between air temperatures in various regions of the Earth and the relativistic electron fluxes with energies of 30–300 KeV that precipitate in winter (December–February). An energy-balance climate model is used to estimate the possible contribution of lower clouds to the globally averaged temperature in the indicated period. It is shown that the consideration of lower clouds as a radiative forcing allows one to explain the global warming of the last 30 years without employing the hypothesis of anthropogenic greenhouse heating.

     

Cosmogenic radioisotopes in the Dhajala chondrite: implications to variations of cosmic ray fluxes in the interplanetary space

Activities of a suite of radioisotopes ranging in half-life from 5.6 days (⁵²Mn) to 3.7 m.y. (⁵³Mn) have been measured in the Dhajala chondrite. The results show that all the radioactivities are close to the expected levels except⁵⁴Mn and ²²Na. Their activities are higher than those based on the interplanetary fluxes at 1 A.U. near the ecliptic, expected immediately before the fall of Dhajala, corresponding to the time of solar minimum. Furthermore, activity ratios of ⁵⁴Mn/⁵³Mn and ²²Na/²⁶Al are higher by 30–50% than expected. The departure from the expected values is discussed in terms of spatial variations of cosmic rays based on the computed orbital parameters of the meteoroid. If the galactic cosmic ray fluxes in the equatorial region (±15°) are assumed to be the same as in the ecliptic plane then these results suggest higher fluxes by 33 ± 7% at heliographic latitudes 15–40°S, during solar minimum.     

Solar System Collisions with Dense Interstellar Gas Clouds and Radiocarbon Traces of Periods with “Abnormally Low” Solar Modulation of Cosmic Rays

Geomagnetism and Aeronomy - The causes of a sharp increase in the radiocarbon content in the Earth’s atmosphere for periods with abnormally low solar modulation of galactic cosmic rays (GCRs)...     

A new index of solar activity: An index of cosmic ray scintillation

An index of cosmic ray scintillation introduced previously is verified. This procedure has been performed within the scope of the long-term full-scale monitoring of galactic cosmic rays (GCRs) in the real time regime. The 5-min data of the global network of high-latitude neutron monitors at Tixie Bay (Apatity) and Oulu (Finland) stations during the last four solar cycles (cycles 20–23), i.e., during the entire period of data registration with a high (5 min) resolution, have been used. The relationship between the amplitude-frequency-time structure of a precursor in the GCR scintillation index and the soliton-like structure of the heliospheric current sheet during the disturbed period has been established. This indicates that the precursor is of a coherent origin. Only the presence of a coherent process—quasi-week variation—makes it fundamentally possible to predict heliospheric storms. Finally, the justifiability of the effective prediction of heliospheric storms (～80%) has been obtained based on the long-term cosmic ray monitoring during cycle 23.     

Solar modulation in surface atmospheric electricity

The solar wind modulates the flux of galactic cosmic rays impinging on Earth inversely with solar activity. Cosmic ray ionisation is the major source of air's electrical conductivity over the oceans and well above the continents. Differential solar modulation of the cosmic ray energy spectrum modifies the cosmic ray ionisation at different latitudes, varying the total atmospheric columnar conductance. This redistributes current flow in the global atmospheric electrical circuit, including the local vertical current density and the related surface potential gradient. Surface vertical current density and potential gradient measurements made independently at Lerwick Observatory, Shetland, from 1978 to 1985 are compared with modelled changes in cosmic ray ionisation arising from solar activity changes. Both the lower troposphere atmospheric electricity quantities are significantly increased at cosmic ray maximum (solar minimum), with a proportional change greater than that of the cosmic ray change.     

Extrema of long-term modulation of the cosmic ray intensity in the last five solar cycles

Modulation of galactic cosmic rays in cycles 19–23 of solar activity has been determined based on observations of their long-term variations on the ground and in the near-Earth space. The extreme values of long-term variations in cosmic rays, obtained from the data of continuous cosmic radiation monitoring on the ground and in the near-Earth space in the last five solar cycles, have been analyzed. The results are compared with the extrema in the characteristics of solar magnetic fields and the sunspot numbers in these cycles. The similarities and differences in cosmic ray modulation between different cycles are discussed.     

Effect of active longitudes in cosmic ray flux modulation

Galactic cosmic rays, registered by ground-based neutron monitors, are strongly affected by the heliosphere, i.e., being subjected to solar modulation. Cosmic ray variations are closely related to different solar activity indices and IMF parameters. The longitudinal inhomogeneity of the general solar magnetic field as a star and the manifestation of this inhomogeneity in the magnetic field are considered in the work. It has been established that the longitudinal inhomogeneity of this field, with the dipole distribution of polarities along heliolongitude, mainly contributes to 27-day modulation of galactic cosmic rays.     

Variations in atmospheric transparency under the action of galactic cosmic rays as a possible cause of their effect on the formation of cloudiness

The possible mechanism by which cosmic rays affect the formation of neutral water droplets and ice crystals in the Earth’s atmosphere has been considered. This mechanism is based on changes in atmospheric transparency and vertical temperature distribution. It has been indicated that a change in the optical thickness for visible and IR radiation by several percents, which can take place when cosmic-ray particles penetrate into the atmosphere, results in a change in the temperature vertical distribution, affecting the growth of water droplets, concentration of active condensation nuclei, and the formation of ice particles. This mechanism makes it possible to explain the correlation between the intensity of galactic cosmic rays at low altitudes and the absence of this correlation at middle altitudes.     

Radiation Conditions near Exoplanets of the TRAPPIST-1 System

Geomagnetism and Aeronomy - Stellar and galactic cosmic rays (SCR and GCR) are the primary factors influencing the radiation conditions near exoplanets. The GCR spectrum and its time variations are...     

Global magnetic field of the Sun and long-term variations of galactic cosmic rays

The paper deals with the relation of long-term variations of 10 GV galactic cosmic rays (GCR) to the global solar magnetic field and solar wind parameters. This study continues previous works, where the tilt of the heliospheric current sheet (HCS) and other solar-heliospheric parameters are successfully used to describe long-term variations of cosmic rays in the past two solar cycles. The novelty of the present work is the use of the HCS tilt and other parameters reconstructed from Hα observations of filaments for the period when direct global solar magnetic field observations were unavailable. Thus, we could extend the GCR simulation interval back to 1953. The analysis of data for 1953–1999 revealed a good correlation (the correlation coefficient >0.88) between the solar-heliospheric parameters and GCR in different cycles of solar activity. Moreover, the approach applied makes it possible to describe the behavior of cosmic rays in the epochs of solar maxima, which could not be done before. This indicates both the adequacy of the model and the reliability of the reconstructed global solar magnetic field parameters.     

Specific features of the rigidity spectrum of Forbush effects

We analyze variations in the rigidity spectrum of primary cosmic rays during Forbush effects recorded in cycles 20–24 of solar activity on the basis of data from the global network of neutron monitor stations processed by global survey. We investigate variations in the rigidity spectrum index of Forbush effects as a function of the solar activity level, phases of the effect, polarity the total magnetic field of the Sun, type and parameters of the source of cosmic ray modulation, etc. Comprehensive analysis of our results revealed regularities in the dynamics of the energy spectrum of galactic cosmic rays that reflect the dynamic processes occurring in the interplanetary space.     

Cosmic Rays and Climate

Among the most puzzling questions in climate change is that of solar-climate variability, which has attracted the attention of scientists for more than two centuries. Until recently, even the existence of solar-climate variability has been controversial—perhaps because the observations had largely involved correlations between climate and the sunspot cycle that had persisted for only a few decades. Over the last few years, however, diverse reconstructions of past climate change have revealed clear associations with cosmic ray variations recorded in cosmogenic isotope archives, providing persuasive evidence for solar or cosmic ray forcing of the climate. However, despite the increasing evidence of its importance, solar-climate variability is likely to remain controversial until a physical mechanism is established. Although this remains a mystery, observations suggest that cloud cover may be influenced by cosmic rays, which are modulated by the solar wind and, on longer time scales, by the geomagnetic field and by the galactic environment of Earth. Two different classes of microphysical mechanisms have been proposed to connect cosmic rays with clouds: firstly, an influence of cosmic rays on the production of cloud condensation nuclei and, secondly, an influence of cosmic rays on the global electrical circuit in the atmosphere and, in turn, on ice nucleation and other cloud microphysical processes. Considerable progress on understanding ion–aerosol–cloud processes has been made in recent years, and the results are suggestive of a physically-plausible link between cosmic rays, clouds and climate. However, a concerted effort is now required to carry out definitive laboratory measurements of the fundamental physical and chemical processes involved, and to evaluate their climatic significance with dedicated field observations and modelling studies.     

Effects in cosmic rays in March 1991

Using the spectrographic global survey method, variations in the rigidity spectrum and anisotropy of galactic cosmic rays (March 1991) have been studied using data from ground-based observations of cosmic rays (CR) at the worldwide network of stations. Variations in geomagnetic cutoff rigidity (GCR) have been calculated. The paper also presents latitudinal GCR variations at certain moments of the considered period for different geomagnetic field disturbance levels. Calculation results of GCR variations have been compared with those of effect of the westward current flowing with a strength proportional to the latitude cosine along parallels on the sphere, for different radii of the current ring in the dipole field.     

Short-term changes in global cloud cover and in cosmic radiation

Galactic cosmic rays (GCR) have been suggested as a possible contributory mechanism to cloud formation. If these are significant then, in addition to the similarity between long-term (years) changes in GCR and cloud cover, there should also be a similarity over shorter (days) time scales. This paper reports an analysis of changes in global cloud cover and GCR recorded at 3 hourly intervals over 22 years. There is a significant correlation between short-term changes in low cloud cover over northern and southern hemispheres, consistent with about 3% of the variation arising from common factors. However, GCR is not a major factor responsible for cloud cover changes. There is an association between short-term changes in low cloud cover and galactic cosmic radiation over a period of several days. This could arise if approximately 3% of the variations in cloud cover resulted from GCR.     

Cloud anomalies at midlatitudes of the Northern and Southern Hemispheres: Connection with atmospheric dynamics and variations in cosmic rays

Geomagnetism and Aeronomy - Long-term correlations between the state of low clouds and variations in the flux of galactic cosmic rays (GCRs) were studied. It has been shown that the links between...