城市扩张及其与驱动因素的时空动态关系研究（英文）

快速的城镇化不仅提高了人们的生活水平,也带来了一些影响人类健康和可持续发展的负面效应。揭示城市扩张的时空动态过程及其与相应驱动因素之间的时空动态关系,是解决这些问题的先决条件,尤其对于数量多、扩张较快的小城市而言。本文以昆山市为例,从地形、社会经济、可达性和邻域等四个方面选取了11个影响因素,应用逻辑回归模型和地理加权逻辑回归模型,分析了昆山市1991-2014年期间城市扩张和相关驱动因素的时空变化过程。结果表明,昆山市呈现出加速扩张的趋势,2000-2014年期间的年均扩张率(28.42%)是1991-2000年期间的4倍,而且明显大于大城市同期的扩张速率。城市扩张和相关驱动因素之间的关系具有时空变化的特征。从全局的观点来看,距离城市、乡镇、主要道路越近,GDP越高的地区,城镇化的可能性越大。此外,值得注意的是人口和城市扩张的关系在减弱,尤其是在发达地区;而湖泊与城市扩张之间的关系却在加强。从局部的视角来看,各驱动因素对城镇化的作用大小,甚至作用方向在空间上呈现出明显的空间异质性。我们的结果还表明地理加权逻辑回归模型明显优于逻辑回归模型。基于以上发现,小城市的城市扩张应予以更多的关注,并且应实施区域差异化发展政策以实现新型城镇化。     

基于地貌分区的1990-2015年中国耕地时空特征变化分析（英文）

Landforms are an important factor determining the spatial pattern of cropland through allocation of surface water and heat. Therefore, it is of great importance to study the change in cropland distribution from the perspective of geomorphologic divisions. Based on China's multi-year land cover data(1990, 1995, 2000, 2005, 2010 and 2015) and geomorphologic regionalization data, we analyzed the change in cropland area and its distribution pattern in six geomorphologic regions of China over the period of 1990-2015 with the aid of GIS techniques. Our results showed that the total cropland area increased from 177.1 to 178.5 million ha with an average increase rate of 0.03%. Cropland area decreased in southern China and increased in northern China. Region I(Eastern hilly plains) had the highest cropland increase rate, while the cropland dynamic degree of Region IV(Northwestern middle and high mountains, basins and plateaus) was significantly higher than that of other regions. The barycenter of China's cropland shifted from northern China to the northwest over the 25-year period. Regions IV and I were the two regions with the greatest increase of cropland. Region II(Southeastern low and middle mountains) and Region V(Southwestern middle and low mountains, plateaus and basins) were the main decreasing cropland regions. The area of cropland remained almost unchanged in Region III(Northern China and Inner Mongolia eastern-central mountains and plateaus) and Region VI(Tibetan Plateau). The loss of cropland occurred mostly in Regions I and II as a result of growing industrialization and urbanization, while the increase of cropland occurred mainly in Region IV because of reclamation of grassland and other wasteland. These analyzing results would provide fundamental information for further studies of urban planning, ecosystem management, and natural resourcesconservation in China.     

1990-2015年中国工矿用地扩张及其对粮食安全的潜在影响

中国城市化和工业化进程所带来的粮食安全问题一直是政府和学术界关注的焦点。中国近25年来快速的城市化与工业化导致耕地资源减少和环境污染加剧,对国家粮食安全和农业可持续发展产生一定影响。本文基于中国土地利用/覆盖变化最新解译结果和中国分县粮食产量数据,重建了中国1 km分辨率的粮食产量空间数据,分析了中国1990-2015年工矿用地扩张及其对粮食产能的影响。结果表明：中国工矿用地面积在1990-2015年间增长了326%,扩张速率从1990-2000年的288 km²/a增加到2000-2010年的1482 km²/a,近5年(2010-2015年)扩张速率最快,达2600 km²/a。过去25年间工矿用地扩张导致耕地面积减少1.7×10⁴ km²,直接导致粮食产能损失约6.49 Mt(10⁶ t),因工矿用地扩张可能会对周边耕地污染等间接影响的粮食产量达83.20 Mt。经评估,国家工矿用地扩张对粮食产能潜在影响总体上是当前粮食总产能的17%。在空间分布特征方面,工矿用地扩张对粮食产能的直接影响呈现由东部沿海地区向西北地区逐渐减小趋势;间接影响在中部和西部地区相对较大。     

2015-2030年中国新型城镇化发展及其资金需求预测（英文）

The future development of new-type urbanization has drawn great attention from both the government and public alike. In this context, the present study had three related research aims. Firstly, it sought to predict the urbanization and population dynamics in China at both national and provincial levels for the period of 2015 to 2030. Secondly, on this basis, it sought to examine the spatial variation of urbanization given the predicted national urbanization rate of 70.12%. Thirdly, it sought to estimate and evaluate the national and provincial demands of investment in the development of new-type urbanization. The main conclusions from this study were as follows:(1) The population size and urbanization rate will reach 1.445 billion and 70.12%, respectively, from 2015 to 2030.(2) The demographic dividend will vanish when the population pressure reaches its maximum. During this period, there will be 70.16 million urban population born. The suburban population that becomes urbanized will be 316.7 million, and thus the net increase in urban population will reach 386 million.(3) Although the urbanization rate of every Chinese province will increase during 2015–2030, it will do so unequally, while differences in urbanization quality among provinces will also be substantial. In some provinces, moreover, the urbanization quality is not compatible with their eco-social development.(4) A total of 4,105,380 billion yuan is required to fund new-type urbanization and the investment demand for each province varies greatly; for example, Guangdong province requires the most funding, amounting to approximately 148 times that required by Tibet, the province in least need of funding. In the final part of this study, policy suggestions concerning the investment of the new-type urbanization are put forward and discussed.     

中国东北松嫩平原1990–2015年的农田环境变化特征分析（英文）

Quantitative characterization of environmental characteristics of cropland(ECC)plays an important role in maintaining sustainable development of agricultural systems and ensuring regional food security. In this study, the changes in ECC over the Songnen Plain, a major grain crops production region in Northeast China, were investigated for the period 1990–2015. The results revealed significant changes in climate conditions, soil physical properties and cropland use patterns with socioeconomic activities. Trends in climate parameters showed increasing temperature(+0.49°C/decade, p 0.05) and decreasing wind speed(–0.3 m/s/decade, p 0.01) for the growing season, while sunshine hours and precipitation exhibited non-significant trends. Four topsoil parameters including soil organic carbon(SOC), clay, bulk density and pH, indicated deteriorating soil conditions across most of the croplands, although some do exhibited slight improvement. The changing amplitude for each of the four above parameters ranged within –0.052 to 0.029 kg C/kg, –0.38 to 0.30,–0.60 to 0.39 g/cm~3, –3.29 to 2.34, respectively. Crop production significantly increased(44.0 million tons) with increasing sown area of croplands(～2.5 million ha) and fertilizer application(～2.5 million tons). The study reveals the dynamics of ECC in the Songnen Plain with intensive cultivation from 1990 to 2015. Population growth, economic development, and policy reform are shown to strongly influence the spatiotemporal changes in cropland characteristics.The study potentially provides valuable scientific information to support sustainable agroecosystem management in the context of global climate change and national socioeconomic development.     

1990–2015年横断山区国土空间时空变化研究（英文）

Hengduan Mountains offer land space for a variety of ecological services. However, the sustainable development and management of land space has been challenged by increased human activities in recent years. This paper performs the spatial pattern analysis of the quantitative and structural changes of various landscapes at different altitudes, and uses the land use data in 1990, 2000, 2010 and 2015 to reveal how various land patterns have changed. The results show that, within the production-living-ecological space schema, the ecological space dominates Hengduan Mountains, while the production and living space was mainly distributed in south region. During 1990–2015, the production-living-ecological spatial changes had been gradually accelerated and the regional differences had become more prominent. The agricultural production space had continuously decreased by 1132.31 km~2, and the industrial and mining production space had rapidly increased by 281.4 km~2 during 1990–2015. The living space had steadily increased, and the ecological space had increased with fluctuations. The land space pattern in Hengduan Mountains was greatly restricted by the terrain, such as altitude and slope. The implementations of China Western Development Strategy and the Returning Farmland to Forest Program had favorably promoted the changes of land spatial pattern in Hengduan Mountains.     

1961-2015年中国极端干旱时间演变特征（英文）

Understanding the past variations in extreme drought is especially beneficial to the improvement of drought resistance planning and drought risk management in China. Based on the monitoring data of meteorological stations from 1961 to 2015 and a meteorological drought index, the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index(SPEI), the spatio-temporal variations in extreme drought at inter-decadal, inter-annual and seasonal scales in China were analyzed. The results revealed that 12 months cumulative precipitation with 1/2 to 5/8 of average annual precipitation will trigger extreme drought. From the period 1961–1987 to the period 1988–2015, the mean annual frequency of extreme drought(FED) increased along a strip extending from southwest China(SWC) to the western part of northeast China(NEC). The increased FED showed the highest value in spring, followed by winter, autumn and summer. There was a continuous increase in the decadal-FED from the 1990 s to the 2010 s on the Tibetan Plateau(TP), the southeast China(SEC) and the SW. During the period 1961–2015, the number of continuous drought stations was almost the same among 4 to 6 months and among 10 to 12 months of continuous drought, respectively. It can be inferred that drought lasting 6 or 12 months may lead to more severe drought disasters due to longer duration. The range of the longest continuous drought occurred in the 21 st century had widely increased compared with that in the 1980 s and the 1990 s. Our findings may be helpful for water resources management and reducing the risk of drought disasters in China.     

2000-2015年中国PM_(2.5)时空演化特征及驱动因素解析（英文）

High concentrations of PM_(2.5) are universally considered as a main cause for haze formation. Therefore, it is important to identify the spatial heterogeneity and influencing factors of PM_(2.5) concentrations for regional air quality control and management. In this study, PM_(2.5) data from 2000 to 2015 was determined from an inversion of NASA atmospheric remote sensing images. Using geo-statistics, geographic detectors, and geo-spatial analysis methods, the spatio-temporal evolution patterns and driving factors of PM_(2.5) concentration in China were evaluated. The main results are as follows.(1) In general, the average concentration of PM_(2.5) in China increased quickly and reached its peak value in 2006; subsequently, concentrations remained between 21.84 and 35.08 μg/m3.(2) PM_(2.5) is strikingly heterogeneous in China, with higher concentrations in the north and east than in the south and west. In particular, areas with relatively high PM_(2.5) concentrations are primarily in four regions, the Huang-Huai-Hai Plain, Lower Yangtze River Delta Plain, Sichuan Basin, and Taklimakan Desert. Among them, Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Region has the highest concentration of PM_(2.5).(3) The center of gravity of PM_(2.5) has generally moved northeastward, which indicates an increasingly serious haze in eastern China. High-value PM_(2.5) concentrations have moved eastward, while low-value PM_(2.5) has moved westward.(4) Spatial autocorrelation analysis indicates a significantly positive spatial correlation. The "High-High" PM_(2.5) agglomeration areas are distributed in the Huang-Huai-Hai Plain, Fenhe-Weihe River Basin, Sichuan Basin, and Jianghan Plain regions. The "Low-Low" PM_(2.5) agglomeration areas include Inner Mongolia and Heilongjiang, north of the Great Wall, Qinghai-Tibet Plateau, and Taiwan, Hainan, and Fujian and other southeast coastal cities and islands.(5) Geographic detection analysis indicates that both natural and anthropogenic factors account for spatial variations in PM_(2.5) concentration. Geographical location, population density, automobile quantity, industrial discharge, and straw burning are the main driving forces of PM_(2.5) concentration in China.     

1980–2015年山东省耕地利用集约度的时序变化及其驱动因素（英文）

基于1980-2015年的《全国农产品成本收益资料》与《山东统计年鉴》等基础资料,以耕地利用过程中的主要粮食作物和经济作物为例,探讨了山东省耕地利用集约度及其构成的时序变化特征,并进一步分析了其主要驱动因素。结果表明:(1)1980–2015年,山东省主要农作物总集约度呈上升趋势,由919.73 Yuan hm~(–2)上升到3285.06 Yuan hm~(–2),其中经济作物多年平均集约度高于粮食作物;主要农作物的人工成本和物质成本均呈增加趋势,粮食作物的物质投入远高于人工投入,而经济作物的人工投入远高于物质投入。(2)山东省主要农作物劳动集约度呈下降趋势,由1980年的501.75 d hm~(-2)下降到2015年的161.93 d hm~(–2),粮食作物相对于经济作物劳动集约度水平低且下降速率大;而资本集约度水平不断上升,由1980年的518.33Yuanhm~(–2)上升到2015年的1159.95 Yuan hm~(–2),其中种子、农家肥、化肥、农药和排灌等增产性投入比重逐渐下降,而农业机械等省工性投入比重增长显著。(3)山东省耕地利用集约度与农业劳动力数量、人均耕地面积呈显著负相关;最主要的直接驱动因素是农作物单位成本纯收益,不过在时间响应上滞后1～3年;最主要的间接驱动因素是农业政策的改革。     

过去40年中国城市扩展及其时空差异分析（英文）

The urban expansion process in China from the 1970 s to 2013 was retrieved based on remote sensing and GIS technology. With the latest zoning method used as reference, annual expansion area per city, urban expansion type, and fractal dimension index were employed to analyze the Chinese urban expansion characteristics and its spatial difference from the aspects of urban expansion process, influence of urban expansion on land use, and urban spatial morphological evolutions. Results indicate that 1) under the powerful guidance of policies, urban expansion in China went through six different stages, and cities in the eastern region entered the rapid expansion period the earliest, followed by cities in the central, northeastern and western regions; 2) cultivated lands and rural settlements and industrial traffic lands were the important land sources for urban expansion in China; the influence of urban expansion on land use in the eastern region was the strongest, followed by the central, northeastern and western regions; 3) urban spatial morphology tended to be complex and was directly related to the adopted spatial expansion mode. Infilling expansion became the main urban expansion mode in the western region first, then in the central and northeastern regions, and finally in the eastern region. This study establishes the foundation for an in-depth recognition of urban expansion in China and optimization of future urban planning.     

三峡库区规模农地时空变化特征及其驱动机制（英文）

Discussions regarding the functional transformation of agricultural utilization and the mechanisms that underlie these changes within the Three Gorges Reservoir Area(TGRA) reflect variations in the relationship between people and their environment in China's central and westerns part, an area of mountains and reservoirs. A clear understanding of these changes also provides the scientific basis for the development of multi-functional agriculture in typical mountainous areas. Five counties were selected for analysis in this study from the hinterland of the TGRA; we analyzed changes in farmland scaling and corresponding underlying mechanisms by defining the concepts of "Scaling Farmland"(SF) and by using the software packages ArcGIS10.2, SPSS, and Geographical Detectors. The results of this analysis show that sources of increased SF have mainly comprised cultivated and shrub land. Indeed, with the exception of some alpine off-season vegetables, SF growth has mainly occurred in low altitude areas and in places where the slope is less than 30°. We also show that spatial changes in various SF types have also been substantially different, but in all cases are closely related to road and township administrative centers. Natural factors at the patch level, including elevation and slope, have contributed significantly to SF, while at the township level, underlying socioeconomic and humanistic factors have tended to include road traffic and agricultural population density. In contrast, at the regional level, underlying driving forces within each have tended to be more significant than overall study area scale. We show that while changes in, and the development of, SF have been driven by numerous factors, agricultural policies have always been amongst the most important. The results clearly elucidate general land use transformation patterns within the mountain regions of western China.     

中国2010-2015年土地利用变化的时空格局与新特征（英文）

Land use/cover change is an important theme on the impacts of human activities on the earth systems and global environmental change. National land-use changes of China during 2010–2015 were acquired by the digital interpretation method using the high-resolution remotely sensed images, e.g. the Landsat 8 OLI, GF-2 remote sensing images. The spatiotemporal characteristics of land-use changes across China during 2010–2015 were revealed by the indexes of dynamic degree model, annual land-use changes ratio etc. The results indicated that the built-up land increased by 24.6×10~3 km~2 while the cropland decreased by 4.9×10~3 km~2, and the total area of woodland and grassland decreased by 16.4×10~3 km~2. The spatial pattern of land-use changes in China during 2010–2015 was concordant with that of the period 2000–2010. Specially, new characteristics of land-use changes emerged in different regions of China in 2010–2015. The built-up land in eastern China expanded continually, and the total area of cropland decreased, both at decreasing rates. The rates of built-up land expansion and cropland shrinkage were accelerated in central China. The rates of built-up land expansion and cropland growth increased in western China, while the decreasing rate of woodland and grassland accelerated. In northeastern China, built-up land expansion slowed continually, and cropland area increased slightly accompanied by the conversions between paddy land and dry land. Besides, woodland and grassland area decreased in northeastern China. The characteristics of land-use changes in eastern China were essentially consistent with the spatial govern and control requirements of the optimal development zones and key development zones according to the Major Function-oriented Zones Planning implemented during the 12 th Five-Year Plan(2011–2015). It was a serious challenge for the central government of China to effectively protect the reasonable layout of land use types dominated with the key ecological function zones and agricultural production zones in centraland western China. Furthermore, the local governments should take effective measures to strengthen the management of territorial development in future.     

1990~2015年韩国土地覆被变化及其驱动因素

以中等分辨率Landsat系列影像为数据源,利用面向对象的图像分析（OBIA）方法,研究1990~2015年韩国土地覆被变化的主要特征与驱动因素。研究发现：近25 a来,韩国人工表面、林地、湿地、耕地和水体面积变化较大。人工表面扩张最为明显,面积增加了1 847.24 km²（+38.97%）,主要发生在以首尔为中心的首都圈地区,多由耕地和林地转化而来。林地、湿地和耕地面积分别减少776.71 km²、707.32 km²和426.65 km² 。过去25 a间韩国土地覆被变化主要集中分布在海拔较低（<100 m）和坡度较小（<3°）的区域。人类活动因素,如人口增长、城市扩张、经济发展及政策调控等是造成韩国土地覆被变化的主要原因。     

黄淮海平原耕地功能演变的时空特征及其驱动机制（英文）

Using counties as the basic analysis unit,this study established an evaluation index system for farmland function(FF) from economic,social,and ecological perspectives.The method combining entropy weighting and multiple correlation coefficient weighting was adopted to determine the weights,and the FF indices were calculated for each county.Subsequently,the spatio-temporal characteristics of farmland function evolution(FFE) were analyzed and the coupled relationships between the sub-functions were explored based on a coupling coordination model.At the same time,the dynamic mechanism of FFE was quantitatively analyzed using a spatial econometric regression analysis method.The following major conclusions were drawn:(1) The farmland economic function generally exhibited a declining trend during 1990–2010,and it is essential to point out that it was stronger in underdeveloped and agriculture-dominated counties,while it continuously weakened in developed areas.Farmland social function decreased in 60.29% of the counties,whereas some counties,which were mostly located in north of Zhengzhou and west of Dezhou and Cangzhou,Yantai,and Weihai,clearly increased.A dramatic decline in farmland ecological function occurred around Beijing,Tianjin,and Jinan.Areas located in the northern part of Henan Province and the central part of Shandong Province saw an increase in ecological function.(2) There was a significant spatial difference in the coupling degree and coordination degree of the sub-functions,and the decoupling phenomenon highlighted this.The changes in social function and ecological function lagged behind economic function in developed areas,but these were highly coupled in some underdeveloped areas.(3) FFE in the Huang-Huai-Hai Plain(HHHP) is resulted from the comprehensive effects of regional basic conditions and external driving factors.Furthermore,the transitions of population and industry under urbanization and industrialization played a decisive role in the evolution intensity and direction of farmland sub-systems,including the economy,society,and the ecology.According to the results mentioned above,promoting the transformation from traditional agriculture to modern agricultureshould be regarded as an important engine driving sustainable development in the HHHP.Taking different regional characteristics of FFE into account,differentiated and diversified farmland use and management plans should be implemented from more developed urban areas to underdeveloped traditional agricultural areas.     

1990-2010年福建省县域人口老龄化时空演变特征及其驱动机制

将探索性空间数据分析方法应用于人口老龄化区域差异研究,以福建省为例,分析1990-2010年间县域人口老龄化时空演变特征,并探讨导致格局演变的驱动机制。结果表明：① 人口老龄化的总体空间格局存在较强的空间正相关性,但空间集聚有所减弱。② 热点区（高度热点区）由沿海向内陆演进,属跃迁式突变;边缘区发展方向刚好相反,属收缩式渐变。③ 总变异中随机性因素增大,结构化分异减弱;区域空间差异愈发显著,主要体现在西北—东南方向上。④ 各类因素对不同地区人口老龄化的影响程度和方向各不相同,但在空间上按一定的方向产生具有一定规律性的分化。总体而言,死亡率和每千人拥有病床数对人口老龄化贡献为正,出生率、人均受教育年限及迁入率具有抑制作用,而人均GDP对人口老龄化既有推动也有抑制作用。     

2002-2015年中国社会保障水平时空分异及驱动机制

运用主成分分析法对2002-2015年的中国社会保障水平进行测算,分析其时空分异特征,同时运用地理加权回归模型分析其影响因素及驱动机制。研究表明：① 中国社会保障总体、地区水平在逐年提高,但区域相对保障水平差距有扩大趋势。② 中国社会保障水平发展不均衡,社会保障水平的“东—中—西”的格局与中国地区发展的格局相吻合。社会保障水平的热点区和冷点区表现出较明显的空间演变特征,高热点区在东部地区扩散并向中部地区辐射,冷点区在西部地区分布并不断加深和强化。③ 人均GDP、农村人均纯收入、城镇化率、教育水平、财政转移支付5个因素,形成经济、教育、财政和社会四大驱动力引致社会保障水平的时序变化和空间布局。     

2015年中国地理学会年会区域会议报道（英文）

正In order to provide better services to the members of Geographical Society of China(GSC)and geographers and engineers in China,and improve GSC’s ability in hosting comprehensive academic conferences,with the support of China Association for Science and Technology(CAST),     

2000–2015年中国城市化进程中耕地质量及其时空变化研究（英文）

加速的城市化进程导致越来越多的耕地被占用,在耕地资源供给不足情况下高质量的农田受到巨大威胁,进而可能对中国粮食安全构成威胁。尽管已对中国耕地质量的空间格局进行了评估,但其随时间变化的情况未见报导。本研究利用MODIS的净初级生产力产品(MOD17)数据,基于发展的累积概率分布法确定耕地质量标准,以2000–2005年、2005–2010年和2010–2015年三期基于Landsat遥感的土地利用变化(LUCC)数据,得到低、中、高质量农田的空间分布,定量分析城市化占用耕地的数量和质量。结果表明,城市化占用耕地面积占耕地减少总面积的比例由2000–2005年的47.29%增加到2010–2015年的77.46%。2000年,中国耕地质量以中低产田为主,分别占全国耕地面积的40.81%和48.74%,高产田仅占10.44%。随着建设用地规模的扩大,城市化占用高产田面积在全国耕地面积中的比例从2000–2005年的9.71%上升到2010–2015年的15.63%,高产田受到严重威胁。从空间上看,该现象已由华东、华南向中西部地区转移,尤其是西北地区,其2010–2015年建设占用耕地面积中,高产田达到52.97%。本研究不仅提供了一种评价耕地质量的方法,同时揭示了城市化进程占用高质量耕地的趋势。未来占用高质量农田的趋势可能会持续,必须构建以振兴乡村为主的新型发展模式,可能是缓解土地资源紧缺情况下城市化和粮食安全矛盾的可选途径,值得土地利用规划和政府决策给予重视。     

应用线性相关分析研究城市扩张与城市中心吸引力的平衡（英文）

城市中心人口减少以及城市面积向外部扩张严重影响了城市的自然生态环境,这是目前世界许多大城市如加拿大蒙特利尔面临的共同问题。限制城市向外部的扩展需要从城市中心的吸引力来平衡。本文采用数理统计和综合归纳方法,在蒙特利尔城市中心最受欢迎的社区之一Sainte-Marie进行了两次现场调查,以定量分析城市中心目前的吸引力。结果表明,目前本地住宅/服务业的中高档需求有所提高,对代表城市特征的一些变量进行相关性分析,认为人们在城市中心的吸引力和阻力的权衡中,不仅仅以"自由居住意志"为唯一选择依据,而是继续生活在Sainte-Marie。本文结论还认为,目前通过城市邻里的吸引力水平限制城市扩张仍然面临很大的挑战。     

1990-2015年喜马拉雅山东段中国和不丹边境地区冰川变化研究

利用Landsat影像,EDM影像等数据资料,使用遥感图像处理及目视解译方法提取了喜马拉雅山东段中国与不丹边境地区冰川从1990—2015年4期边界,研究其与气温降水变化关系,并选取特定冰川,对其表面流速进行估算。研究表明：1990—2015年,该地区冰川退缩速率达0.43%·a^-1,并且冰川年退缩率逐渐增大,表明冰川消融速度逐渐加快。该时段内,气温呈现明显上升趋势,导致了冰川的快速消融。通过对冰川表面流速的估算,得出中国与不丹边境地区研究选取的冰前湖对冰川流速具有促进作用,加速冰川消融。