Komi reindeer herding: the effects of socialist and post-socialist change on mobility and land use

This paper contributes to the discussion concerning the way in which Soviet state policies have influenced the lives, social organization, economy and culture of a group of indigenous Komi reindeer herders of northern Russia: its main focus is to explain how these policies have changed the herders' patterns of migration and land use. Extensive anthropological fieldwork—to determine current and past herding practices—was carried out and archives were thoroughly investigated to document land use changes in relation to state reindeer herding policies. It was found that compared with those of several decades ago, the migration routes are now much shorter, as the herders have abandoned large areas of winter pastures located in the southernmost part of their herding territory. This "abandonment" phenomenon is endemic amongst reindeer herders generally, throughout the Komi Republic. Whereas the reasons for the abandonment of winter pastures are diverse, they can be attributed mostly to the state sedentarization policy, which has modified the family structures of herders, and the continuing decreases in state subsidies that have changed the balance between state and private ownership of reindeer. Both these factors have greatly contributed to the herders' dependence on visiting towns, where they now own flats, and on selling reindeer products, upon which they are increasingly reliant for financial security.     

Holocene climate and glacier variability at Hallet and Greyling Lakes,Chugach Mountains,south-central Alaska

Evidence from lake sediments and glacier forefields from two hydrologically isolated lake basins is used to reconstruct Holocene glacier and climate history at Hallet and Greyling Lakes in the central Chugach Mountains of south-central Alaska. Glacial landform mapping, lichenometry, and equilibrium-line altitude reconstructions, along with changes in sedimentary biogenic-silica content, bulk density, and grain-size distribution indicate a dynamic history of Holocene climate variability. The evidence suggests a warm early Holocene from 10 to 6 ka, followed by the onset of Neoglaciation in the two drainage basins, beginning between 4.5 and 4.0 ka. During the past 2 ka, the glacial landforms and lacustrine sediments from the two valleys record a remarkably similar history of glaciation, with two primary advances, one during the first millennium AD, from ~500 to 800 AD, and the second during the Little Ice Age (LIA) from ~1400 to 1900 AD. During the LIA, the reconstructed equilibrium-line altitude in the region was no more than 83 ± 44 m (n = 21) lower than the modern, which is based on the extent of glaciers during 1978. Differences between the summer temperature inferred from the biogenic-silica content and the evidence for glacial advances and retreats suggest a period of increased winter precipitation from 1300 to 1500 AD, and reduced winter precipitation from 1800 to 1900 AD, likely associated with variability in the strength of the Aleutian Low.

Late Holocene storm-trajectory changes inferred from the oxygen isotope composition of lake diatoms,south Alaska

The oxygen isotope ratios of diatoms (δ¹⁸O_diatom), and the oxygen and hydrogen isotope ratios of lake water (δW) of lakes in south Alaska provide insight into past changes in atmospheric circulation. Lake water was collected from 31 lakes along an elevation transect and diatoms were isolated from lake sediment from one lake (Mica Lake) in south Alaska. In general, δW values from coastal lakes overlap the global meteoric water line (GMWL). δW values from interior lakes do not lie on the GMWL; they fall on a local evaporation line trajectory suggesting source isotopes are depleted with respect to maritime lakes. Sediment cores were recovered from 58 m depth in Mica Lake (60.96° N, 148.15° W; 100 m asl), an evaporation-insensitive lake in the western Prince William Sound. Thirteen calibrated ¹⁴C ages on terrestrial macrofossil samples were used to construct an age-depth model for core MC-2, which spans 9910 cal years. Diatoms from 46, 0.5-cm-thick samples were isolated and analyzed for their oxygen isotope ratios. The analyses employed a newly designed, stepwise fluorination technique, which uses a CO₂ laser-ablation system, coupled to a mass spectrometer, and has an external reproducibility of ±0.2‰. δ¹⁸O_diatom values from Mica Lake sediment range between 25.2 and 29.8‰. δ¹⁸O_diatom values are relatively uniform between 9.6 and 2.6 ka, but exhibit a four-fold increase in variability since 2.6 ka. High-resolution sampling and analyses of the top 100 cm of our lake cores suggest large climate variability during the last 2000 years. The 20th century shows a +4.0‰ increase of δ¹⁸O_diatom values. Shifts of δ¹⁸O_diatom values are likely not related to changes in diatom taxa or dissolution effects. Late Holocene excursions to lower δ¹⁸O_diatom values suggest a reduction of south-to-north storm trajectories delivered by meridional flow, which likely corresponds to prolonged intervals when the Aleutian Low pressure system weakened. Comparisons with isotope records of precipitation (δP) from the region support the storm-track hypothesis, and add to evidence for variability in North Pacific atmospheric circulation during the Holocene.

Testing the credibility of historical newspaper reporting of extreme climate and weather events

In recent years, newspaper research has been streamlined by digitisation and online hosting by PapersPast. This paper tests the reliability and credibility of reporting of extreme weather and climatic events through PapersPast to determine if newspaper research of past climate can be further streamlined. Searches were conducted through four early‐20th‐century Auckland newspapers, where counts of articles returned by key‐word searches for particular periods were compared against periods of known extremes. We find that blind searches have only limited potential in identifying extreme weather and climatic events and that they are no substitute for thorough analyses of documentary sources.     

气候变化对植物多样性的影响研究综述

植物多样性是生态系统结构和功能的基础,气候变化已对其产生了深刻的影响,甚至于严重威胁.植物多样性的减少或丧失必然会影响生态系统结构和功能的稳定性,导致严重的生态、经济和社会后果.植物多样性对气候变化的响应受控于气温和水分的动态平衡.本文系统总结了气候变暖和降水格局变化对植物多样性的影响,分析了气候变化对不同生态系统、群...     

Perceived deficiencies in the provision of climate and weather information for tourism: A New Zealand media analysis

Climate and weather are important for tourism and leisure as they impact on destination attractiveness and subsequent visitation. Through an archive analysis of media articles and a content analysis of Regional Tourism Organisation (RTO) websites, this paper explores perceived deficiencies in the currently available climate and weather information for tourists in New Zealand. While media reports focused on concern by many RTOs over the poor regional images generated by inaccurate and poorly presented climate and weather data, the RTO websites were found to contain limited climate and weather information. There is considerable potential for RTOs to improve in this respect.     

Review on carbon emissions,energy consumption and low-carbon economy in China from a perspective of global climate change

Accompanying the rapid growth of China’s population and economy, energy consumption and carbon emission increased significantly from 1978 to 2012. China is now the largest energy consumer and CO₂ emitter of the world, leading to much interest in researches on the nexus between energy consumption, carbon emissions and low-carbon economy. This article presents the domestic Chinese studies on this hotpot issue, and we obtain the following findings. First, most research fields involve geography, ecology and resource economics, and research contents contained some analysis of current situation, factors decomposition, predictive analysis and the introduction of methods and models. Second, there exists an inverted “U-shaped” curve connection between carbon emission, energy consumption and economic development. Energy consumption in China will be in a low-speed growth after 2035 and it is expected to peak between 6.19–12.13 billion TCE in 2050. China’s carbon emissions are expected to peak in 2035, or during 2020 to 2045, and the optimal range of carbon emissions is between 2.4–3.3 PgC/year (1 PgC=1 billion tons C) in 2050. Third, future research should be focused on global carbon trading, regional carbon flows, reforming the current energy structure, reducing energy consumption and innovating the low-carbon economic theory, as well as establishing a comprehensive theoretical system of energy consumption, carbon emissions and low-carbon economy.     

BCC/RCG-WG天气发生器非降水变量模拟参数气候变化特征

利用中国699 个气象站点1951-2007 年的逐日最高气温、最低气温和日照时数资料,分1951-1978 年和1979-2007 年两个时段分析了气候变化对BCC/RCG-WG天气发生器中我国各地逐日非降水变量模拟参数的影响.结果表明,最高气温、最低气温和日照时数三个变量平均值傅立叶级数展开式的年平均值和基波振幅较标准差傅立叶级数展开式的年平均值和基波振幅的变化幅度明显偏大,而平均值傅立叶级数展开式的基波位相变化幅度较标准差的基波位相变化幅度明显偏小;三个变量当天以及后延一天之间的相关系数的绝对变化较小.说明在气候变化背景下,最高气温等三个非降水变量的年平均值和年内变幅有明显的变化,而三个变量年际间的变异、峰值出现时间以及各变量之间的相关性变化较小.     

秦岭南北地区环境变化响应比较研究

利用气象水文部门截止1999年的气象水文实测数据,计算分析在气候变暖过程中中国秦岭具有的区域响应分界意义。由于气候变暖,在百年时间尺度上,通过旱涝指数分析证明秦岭以北进入干旱期,秦岭以南为湿润期;在10年时间尺度上,陕南气温变化较小,而关中气温增高较快,陕南与关中年均气温差值变小;关中和陕南降水量差值变小,二者同时干旱或陕南更干旱,反映出秦岭在气候变化中显著的分界作用。气候变暖,渭河与汉江年径流系数同步减小,其中渭河径流系数由50年代的02下降为90年代的01以下,渭河流域已变为少水带,即相当于气候上的干旱区。秦岭以北地区较其以南地区环境干暖化的趋势更明显,这对于认识全球变化的区域响应差异有参考意义。     

气候变化对中国观鸟旅游的影响——基于鸟类物候变化的分析

全球观鸟活动的规模达到了每年几千万人次,观鸟旅游已经成为世界野生动物观赏业的重要组成部分。气候变化改变了鸟类物候期及其空间格局,这不仅会影响观鸟者的旅游活动,还会进一步对观鸟旅游利益相关者的生计产生影响。监测并尽早地识别出这些影响,提醒利益相关者采取有效的适应策略意义重大。本文引入物候期这一气候变化的"指示器"来反映开展观鸟旅游的重要资源基础——鸟类活动时间以及栖息地格局的变化。通过对1980-2010年中国26个地区的98个物候序列的鸟类研究进行荟萃分析发现:中国鸟类离开、抵达、停留时间以及鸟类栖息地的格局都已经发生了改变。春季、夏季鸟类会提前离开或抵达,但在秋季它们的活动会延迟。鸟类停留的时间主要呈现延长的趋势。温度升高会使鸟类停留时间变长,对观鸟旅游的开展有利。中国低纬度地区和西部地区鸟类停留时间更长。鸟类栖息地的格局呈现出向北和向西迁移的特征。游客和景区工作人员均已感知到鸟类活动时间以及栖息地格局的变化对观鸟旅游产生的影响。     

Hydrologic and geomorphic processes in the Colville River delta, Alaska

The Colville basin drains the North Slope of Alaska and is one of several large Arctic river systems located within permafrost. The timing and style of fluvial processes in the earth's permafrost regions differ from those occurring in midlatitude settings. Moreover, in comparison to temperate-zone systems, rivers located entirely within permafrost perform most of their work during relatively short periods of time. This paper examines river ice hydrology and the resulting geomorphic processes that occur within the Colville delta, Alaska. Fluvial processes and landform development within the Colville delta occur after the flood-pulse is initiated by the breakup of river ice. During this 4-month period, the geomorphic processes are largely influenced by the movement of ice. The flood-pulse and accompanying river ice influences erosional and depositional processes and results in unique styles of sediment transport, deposition, and riverbank erosion.     

Changes in the global cryosphere and their impacts: A review and new perspective

As one of the five components of Earth's climatic system, the cryosphere has been undergoing rapid shrinking due to global warming. Studies on the formation, evolution, distribution and dynamics of cryospheric components and their interactions with the human system are of increasing importance to society. In recent decades, the mass loss of glaciers, including the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets, has accelerated. The extent of sea ice and snow cover has been shrinking, and permafrost has been degrading. The main sustainable development goals in cryospheric regions have been impacted. The shrinking of the cryosphere results in sea-level rise, which is currently affecting, or is soon expected to affect, 17 coastal megacities and some small island countries. In East Asia, South Asia and North America, climate anomalies are closely related to the extent of Arctic sea ice and snow cover in the Northern Hemisphere. Increasing freshwater melting from the ice sheets and sea ice may be one reason for the slowdown in Atlantic meridional overturning circulation in the Arctic and Southern Oceans. The foundations of ports and infrastructure in the circum-Arctic permafrost regions suffer from the consequences of permafrost degradation. In high plateaus and mountainous regions, the cryosphere's shrinking has led to fluctuations in river runoff, caused water shortages and increased flooding risks in certain areas. These changes in cryospheric components have shown significant heterogeneity at different temporal and spatial scales. Our results suggest that the quantitative evaluation of future changes in the cryosphere still needs to be improved by enhancing existing observations and model simulations. Theoretical and methodological innovations are required to strengthen social economies' resilience to the impact of cryospheric change.     

Foreword to the special issue: climate change impacts, adaptation and vulnerability in the Arctic

The Arctic climate is changing, carrying wide-ranging implications for indigenous and non-indigenous inhabitants, businesses, industry and government across the circumpolar region. The latest scientific assessments indicate that change is happening faster than previously thought, and that the Arctic will continue to experience dramatic climate change in the future. This special edition of Polar Research brings together nine papers on climate change impacts, adaptation and vulnerability in the Arctic, providing important insights on the nature of the risks and opportunities posed by climate change in the circumpolar region, highlighting opportunities for policy response and providing insights on how to conduct effective climate change research with Arctic communities.     

Effect of climate change and railway embankment on the degradation of underlain permafrost

Because of the global warming and the increasing human activity, the air temperature and the precipitation along the Qinghai-Tibet Railway increased gradually in recent years, which endanger the permafrost table, the embankment of the railway. The statistics of the air temperature, the precipitation and the geothermal temperature in recent 50 years in this dissertation come from the four weather station along the railway, that are Wudaoliang Station, Fenghuo Mountains Station, Tuotuo River Station and Ando Station. This dissertation analyzes the change of climate along the railway and then develops a research on the effect of the changing geothermal temperature on permafrost table and its countermeasures. The experiment result shows that the air temperature of the permafrost region rise steadily in about 50 years, especially in this century, the tendency of rising temperature is more obvious. The precipitation fluctuates but it is also rising rapidly, for the largest precipitation reached 492.6 mm. For 30 years now, the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau has been in the megathermal period, which also affects the permafrost region along the railway. The condition of permafrost is degrading greatly.     

Land use and climate change on the Yamal Peninsula of north-west Siberia: some ecological and socio-economic implications

Compared to climate, land use change is expected to comprise a more important component of global change in the coming decades. However, climate is anticipated to supass land use as a factor later in the next century, particularly in the Arctic. Discussed here are the implications of land use and climate change on the Yamal peninsula of north-west Siberia, homeland of the Yamal Nenets. Since the discovery of super-giant natural gas fields in the 1960s, extensive exploration has resulted in direct withdrawal of large areas for infrastructure development and associated disturbance regimes have led to cumulative impacts on thousands of additional hectares of land. The land withdrawals have pushed a relatively consistent or increasing number of reindeer onto progressively smaller parcels of pasture. This has led to excessive grazing and trampling of lichens, bryophytes and shrubs and, in many areas, erosion of sandy soils via deflation. The low Arctic tundra lies entirely within the continuous permafrost zone and ice-rich substrates are widespread. One implication of this is that both anthropogenic and zoogenic distubance regimes may easily initiate thermokarst and aeolian rosion, leading to significant further losses of pastures. Even without industrial distubance, a slight change of the climate would result in massive thermokarst erosion. This would have negative consequences equal to or greater than the mechanical distubances described above. The synergistic effects of land use coupled with climate, change therefore have profound implication for the ecosystems of Yamal, as well as the future of the Nenets culture, society and economy.     

Impact of Holocene climate change on the prehistoric cultures of Zhejiang region,East China

The temporal-spatial distribution features of prehistoric cultures since the Holocene in Zhejiang region were comparatively analyzed based on GIS spatial analysis. Results show that the prehistoric cultures expanded gradually in this region before 4000 cal. a BP. The notable expansions occurred twice, one in the Majiabang-Hemudu cultural period, the other in the Liangzhu cultural period. Meanwhile, the prehistoric cultures were disseminated from west to east coast along river valleys. After 4000 cal. a BP, as represented by the Maqiao Culture, the distributed area of each prehistoric culture contracted. This is obviously due to the termination of spreading trends to east coast, which was simultaneously accompanied by two different modes of production and economic transitions in the north and south Zhejiang region respectively. The distribution of prehistoric cultures was closely related with Holocene sea-level fluctuations, especially on the banks of Hangzhou Bay, where the distribution changes of prehistoric cultural sites were greatly affected by sea-level changes, with the closest relationships between them. After 7000 cal. a BP, the process of lowered sea-level and regression-epeirogenesis provided wider terrestrial living spaces for prehistoric inhabitants. Based on the comparative analyses of the changes of prehistoric cultures and the environmental evolution information recorded in the Qianmutian subalpine peat of Mt. Tianmu and muddy area on the inner shelf of the East China Sea, it is indicated that the changes of prehistoric cultures were synchronized with environmental changes in Zhejiang region. Before 4000 cal. a BP, the eastward expansion of prehistoric cultures in Zhejiang occurred under the background of the Holocene Optimum, and was the expansion and extension under the joint influences of agricultural civilization and maritime civilization. However, after 4000 cal. a BP, the geographical contraction of prehistoric cultures in Zhejiang occurred under the background of dry-cold climate trend and deterioration of coastal marine environment. It is evidenced from the above fact that the development, expansion and contraction of prehistoric cultures are positively correlated to environmental change. The change of the climatic environment is just the underlying reason for these changes and transitions of production modes and economic forms. Therefore, the climatic environment is the dominant factor of prehistoric culture vicissitudes in Zhejiang region, which has exerted great influence on distribution, dissemination, expansion and transmutation of the culture.     

Impacts of climate change and LULC change on runoff in the Jinsha River Basin

The climate change and Land Use/Land Cover(LULC) change both have an important impact on the rainfall-runoff processes. How to quantitatively distinguish and predict the impacts of the above two factors has been a hot spot and frontier issue in the field of hydrology and water resources. In this research, the SWAT(Soil and Water Assessment Tool) model was established for the Jinsha River Basin, and the method of scenarios simulation was used to study the runoff response to climate change and LULC change. Furthermore, the climate variables exported from 7 typical General Circulation Models(GCMs) under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 emission scenarios were bias corrected and input into the SWAT model to predict runoff in 2017–2050. Results showed that:(1) During the past 57 years, the annual average precipitation and temperature in the Jinsha River Basin both increased significantly while the rising trend of runoff was far from obvious.(2) Compared with the significant increase of temperature in the Jinsha River Basin, the LULC change was very small.(3) During the historical period, the LULC change had little effect on the hydrological processes in the basin, and climate change was one of the main factors affecting runoff.(4) In the context of global climate change, the precipitation, temperature and runoff in the Jinsha River Basin will rise in 2017–2050 compared with the historical period. This study provides significant references to the planning and management of large-scale hydroelectric bases at the source of the Yangtze River.     

Impact of Holocene climate change on the prehistoric cultures of Zhejiang region,East China

The temporal-spatial distribution features of prehistoric cultures since the Holocene in Zhejiang region were comparatively analyzed based on GIS spatial analysis. Results show that the prehistoric cultures expanded gradually in this region before 4000 cal. a BP. The notable expansions occurred twice, one in the Majiabang-Hemudu cultural period, the other in the Liangzhu cultural period. Meanwhile, the prehistoric cultures were disseminated from west to east coast along river valleys. After 4000 cal. a BP, as represented by the Maqiao Culture, the distributed area of each prehistoric culture contracted. This is obviously due to the termination of spreading trends to east coast, which was simultaneously accompanied by two different modes of production and economic transitions in the north and south Zhejiang region respectively. The distribution of prehistoric cultures was closely related with Holocene sea-level fluctuations, especially on the banks of Hangzhou Bay, where the distribution changes of prehistoric cultural sites were greatly affected by sea-level changes, with the closest relationships between them. After 7000 cal. a BP, the process of lowered sea-level and regression-epeirogenesis provided wider terrestrial living spaces for prehistoric inhabitants. Based on the comparative analyses of the changes of prehistoric cultures and the environmental evolution information recorded in the Qianmutian subalpine peat of Mt. Tianmu and muddy area on the inner shelf of the East China Sea, it is indicated that the changes of prehistoric cultures were synchronized with environmental changes in Zhejiang region. Before 4000 cal. a BP, the eastward expansion of prehistoric cultures in Zhejiang occurred under the background of the Holocene Optimum, and was the expansion and extension under the joint influences of agricultural civilization and maritime civilization. However, after 4000 cal. a BP, the geographical contraction of prehistoric cultures in Zhejiang occurred under the back ground of dry-cold climate trend and deterioration of coastal marine environment. It is evidenced from the above fact that the development, expansion and contraction of prehistoric cultures are positively correlated to environmental change. The change of the climatic environment is just the underlying reason for these changes and transitions of production modes and economic forms. Therefore, the climatic environment is the dominant factor of prehistoric culture vicissitudes in Zhejiang region, which has exerted great influence on distribution, dissemination, expansion and transmutation of the culture.     

Progress on quantitative assessment of the impacts of climate change and human activities on cropland change

It is important to study the contributions of climate change and human activities to cropland changes in the fields of both climate change and land use change. Relationships between cropland changes and driving forces were qualitatively studied in most of the previous researches. However, the quantitative assessments of the contributions of climate change and human activities to cropland changes are needed to be explored for a better understanding of the dynamics of land use changes. We systematically reviewed the methods of identifying the contributions of climate change and human activities to cropland changes at quantitative aspects, including model analysis, mathematical statistical method, framework analysis, index assessment and difference comparison. Progress of the previous researches on quantitative evaluation of the contributions was introduced. Then we discussed four defects in the assessment of the contributions of climate change and human activities. For example, the methods were lack of comprehensiveness, and the data need to be more accurate and abundant. In addition, the scale was single and the explanations were biased. Moreover, we concluded a clue about quantitative approach to assess the contributions from synthetically aspect to specific driving forces. Finally, the solutions of the future researches on data, scale and explanation were proposed.     

新疆伊犁河流域气候变化(英文)

In this paper, the monthly precipitation and temperature data collected at 7 stations in the Ili River Basin from 1961 to 2007 were analyzed by means of simple regression analysis, running mean, db6 wavelet function and Mann-Kendall test. This study revealed the characteristics of climate change and abrupt change points of precipitation and temperature during different time scales in the Ili River Basin within the past 50 years. The results showed that the precipitation increased from the mid-1980s until 2000 and has continued to increase at a smaller magnitude since 2000. Over the studied period, the precipitation increased significantly during the summer and winter months. The temperature increased greatly in the late 1980s, and has continued to show an increasing trend from the year 2000 to present. The temperature increases were most significant during the summer, autumn and winter months. In terms of different geographies, the temperature increase was significant during the winter in the plains and hilly regions; the increase was also significant during autumn in the intermontane basins. The climate change trends in the Ili River Basin were consistent with the changing trends of the North Atlantic Oscillation and the plateau monsoon.