Groundwater Modeling in Integrated Water Resources Management—Visions for 2020

Groundwater modeling is undergoing a change from traditional stand-alone studies toward being an integrated part of holistic water resources management procedures. This is illustrated by the development in Denmark, where comprehensive national databases for geologic borehole data, groundwater-related geophysical data, geologic models, as well as a national groundwater-surface water model have been established and integrated to support water management. This has enhanced the benefits of using groundwater models. Based on insight gained from this Danish experience, a scientifically realistic scenario for the use of groundwater modeling in 2020 has been developed, in which groundwater models will be a part of sophisticated databases and modeling systems. The databases and numerical models will be seamlessly integrated, and the tasks of monitoring and modeling will be merged. Numerical models for atmospheric, surface water, and groundwater processes will be coupled in one integrated modeling system that can operate at a wide range of spatial scales. Furthermore, the management systems will be constructed with a focus on building credibility of model and data use among all stakeholders and on facilitating a learning process whereby data and models, as well as stakeholders' understanding of the system, are updated to currently available information. The key scientific challenges for achieving this are (1) developing new methodologies for integration of statistical and qualitative uncertainty; (2) mapping geological heterogeneity and developing scaling methodologies; (3) developing coupled model codes; and (4) developing integrated information systems, including quality assurance and uncertainty information that facilitate active stakeholder involvement and learning.     

Discussion: Misrepresentation of the USLE in ‘Is sediment delivery a fallacy?’

The assertion that the application of the USLE to predicting soil losses within a catchment or watershed is not sound because the USLE provides an estimate of erosion that would be measured if the entire area were divided up into 22·1 m long plots, and the output from them all added together, is incorrect. The slope length factor was derived from data obtained using a wide range of plot lengths and included the 22·1 m length simply to force it to take on a value of 1·0 when the slope length is 22·1 m. The 22·1 m length has no physical significance but the USLE slope length factor has a physical basis when applied to planar and convex hillslopes. The use of sediment delivery ratios when the USLE is applied to concave areas attempts to correct for applying the USLE beyond its design criteria. It fails because, in using the sediment delivery ratios in the prediction sediment delivery, it is incorrectly assumed that sediment delivery ratios de not vary with the amount of sediment entering a zone of deposition.     

Water‐worked gravel beds in laboratory flumes – a natural analogue?

An investigation has been conducted to identify the key parameters that are likely to scale laboratory sediment deposits to the field scale. Two types of bed formation were examined: one where sediment is manually placed and screeded and the second where sediment is fed into a running flume. This later technique created deposits through sequential cycles of sediment transport and deposition. Detailed bed surface topography measurements have been made over a screeded bed and three fed beds. In addition, bulk subsurface porosity and hydraulic conductivity have been measured. By comparing the four beds, results revealed that certain physical properties of the screeded bed were clearly different from those of the fed beds. The screeded bed had a random organization of grains on both the surface and within the subsurface. The fed beds exhibited greater surface and subsurface organization and complexity, and had a number of properties that closely resembled those found for water‐worked gravel beds. The surfaces were water‐worked and armoured and there was preferential particle orientation and direction of imbrication in the subsurface. This suggested that fed beds are able to simulate, in a simplified manner, both the surface and subsurface properties of established gravel‐bed river deposits. The near‐bed flow properties were also compared. It revealed that the use of a screeded bed will typically cause an underestimation in the degree of temporal variability in the flow. Furthermore, time‐averaged streamwise velocities were found to be randomly organized over the screeded bed but were organized into long streamwise flow structures over the fed beds. It clearly showed that caution should be taken when comparing velocity measurements over screeded beds with water‐worked beds, and that the formation of fed beds offers an improved way of investigating intragravel flow and sediment–water interface exchange processes in gravel‐bed rivers at a laboratory scale. Copyright © 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Water Resources Management Issues in the Danube River Basin District—Examples from Serbia

Water Resources - This paper aims to present water resources management problems in Serbia and recommend possible solutions. Key issues involve water quality and water quantity. Water quality is...     

Coral Transplantation: A Useful Management Tool or Misguided Meddling?

The primary objectives of coral transplantation are to improve reef ‘quality' in terms of live coral cover, biodiversity and topographic complexity. Stated reasons for transplanting corals have been to: (1) accelerate reef recovery after ship groundings, (2) replace corals killed by sewage, thermal effluents or other pollutants, (3) save coral communities or locally rare species threatened by pollution, land reclamation or pier construction, (4) accelerate recovery of reefs after damage by Crown-of-thorns starfish or red tides, (5) aid recovery of reefs following dynamite fishing or coral quarrying, (6) mitigate damage caused by tourists engaged in water-based recreational activities, and (7) enhance the attractiveness of underwater habitat in tourism areas. Whether coral transplantation is likely to be effective from a biological standpoint depends on, among other factors, the water quality, exposure, and degree of substrate consolidation of the receiving area. Whether it is necessary (apart from cases related to reason 3 above), depends primarily on whether the receiving area is failing to recruit naturally.

The potential benefits and dis-benefits of coral transplantation are examined in the light of the results of research on both coral transplantation and recruitment with particular reference to a 4.5 year study in the Maldives. We suggest that in general, unless receiving areas are failing to recruit juvenile corals, natural recovery processes are likely to be sufficient in the medium to long term and that transplantation should be viewed as a tool of last resort. We argue that there has been too much focus on transplanting fast-growing branching corals, which in general naturally recruit well but tend to survive transplantation and re-location relatively poorly, to create short-term increases in live coral cover, at the expense of slow-growing massive corals, which generally survive transplantation well but often recruit slowly. In those cases where transplantation is justified, we advocate that a reversed stance, which focuses on early addition of slowly recruiting massive species to the recovering community, rather than a short-term and sometimes short-lived increase in coral cover, may be more appropriate in many cases.     

Is ‘Centre of Volume’ a robust indicator of changes in snowmelt timing?

The centre of volume (COV), or the hydrograph centroid, is a measure of streamflow timing that is a widely used indicator of the effects of warmer temperatures on the hydrology of snowmelt streams. The COV was originally developed as a measure of land‐use effects, and its response is affected by several factors other than temperature, particularly total run‐off. A ‘toy’ model is used to demonstrate some of these effects, and these effects are also shown for streamflow data from Canada's Reference Hydrologic Basin Network. These deficiencies indicate that COV is neither specific nor robust as an indicator. Although these effects might be overcome by streamflow decomposition, the use of COV as an indicator of snowmelt timing should be avoided. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

U.S. atlantic coastal fisheries — How effective have management plans been in maintaining “sustainable fisheries”?

Coastal and residential development along the Atlantic coast of the United States is expected to increase by about 73% between 1980 and 2000. Present estimates indicate that over 59% of the population of the United States lives within 50 miles of the coast. This increase in coastal population coupled with increased demands for fishery products and increased efficiency in catching fish has severely stressed many Atlantic coast fisheries. Fisheries have been affected by increased pollution, habitat loss and overfishing. In 1976, the Magnuson Fishery Conservation and Management Act was passed creating Fishery Management Councils with the goal of imposing strict conservation measures in the U.S. Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ). This paper discusses potential causes of Atlantic Coast fisheries declines and gives examples of specific fishery plans that have been developed to manage U.S. fisheries.     

An Imminent Human Resource Crisis in Ground Water Hydrology?

Anecdotal evidence, mostly from the United States, suggests that it has become increasingly difficult to find well-trained, entry-level ground water hydrologists to fill open positions in consulting firms and regulatory agencies. The future prospects for filling positions that require training in ground water hydrology are assessed by considering three factors: the market, the numbers of qualified students entering colleges and universities, and the aging of the existing workforce. The environmental and water resources consulting industry has seen continuous albeit variable growth, and demand for environmental scientists and hydrologists is expected to increase significantly. Conversely, students' interest and their enrollment in hydrology and water resources programs have waned in recent years, and the interests of students within these departments have shifted away from ground water hydrology in some schools. This decrease in the numbers of U.S. students graduating in hydrology or emphasizing ground water hydrology is coinciding with the aging of and pending retirement of ground water scientists and engineers in the baby boomer generation. We need to both trigger the imagination of students at the elementary school level so that they later want to apply science and math and communicate the career opportunities in ground water hydrology to those high school and college graduates who have acquired the appropriate technical background. Because the success of a consulting firm, research organization, or regulatory agency is derived from the skills and judgment of the employees, human resources will be an increasingly more critical strategic issue for many years.     

Do CRISTA Experiment/Campaign Data Represent a Typical Situation or Not?

Data from four A3 radio wave circuits in central Europe are used to analyse the representativeness of the ionization and gravity wave activity pattern in the lower ionosphere (85 – 100 km) in the CRISTA experiment interval (3 – 12 November 1994) for the given conditions. It has been found that the CRISTA experiment interval was run under conditions, which are highly representative both of October – November 1994 and autumn, low-moderate solar activity, the descending phase of solar cycle conditions, i.e. CRISTA measurements may be considered to provide values identical with, or close to climatological values (at least for central Europe, h = 85 – 100 km).     

Seismic hazard disaggregation in performance‐based earthquake engineering: occurrence or exceedance?

Seismic hazard disaggregation is commonly used as an aid in ground‐motion selection for the seismic response analysis of structures. This short communication investigates two different approaches to disaggregation related to the exceedance and occurrence of a particular intensity. The impact the different approaches might have on a subsequent structural analysis at a given intensity is explored through the calculation of conditional spectra. It is found that the exceedance approach results in conditional spectra that will be conservative when used as targets for ground‐motion selection. It is however argued that the use of the occurrence disaggregation is more consistent with the objectives of seismic response analyses in the context of performance‐based earthquake engineering. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

How significant (p < 0.05) is geomorphic research?

The pervasive application of the Null Hypothesis Significance Test in geomorphic research runs counter to widespread, long running, and often severe criticism of the method in the broader scientific literature. The application of the methodology typically leads to a binary separation of evidence into ‘significant’ and ‘not significant’ results based on a p‐value that is dependent on the null hypothesis being true. The method should not therefore be used to provide statistical support for substantive hypotheses, and is unsuitable for scientific inference in open systems where confirmation can only ever be partial. Alternative approaches based on Bayesian statistics can importantly be applied to measure partial support for hypotheses, conditional on the available data. Though not without their own assumptions, wider application of such methods can help facilitate a transition towards a broader approach to statistical, and in turn, scientific inference in geomorphic systems. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Spatio‐temporal tracer variability in the glacier melt end‐member — How does it affect hydrograph separation results?

Geochemical and isotopic tracers were often used in mixing models to estimate glacier melt contributions to streamflow, whereas the spatio‐temporal variability in the glacier melt tracer signature and its influence on tracer‐based hydrograph separation results received less attention. We present novel tracer data from a high‐elevation catchment (17 km², glacierized area: 34%) in the Oetztal Alps (Austria) and investigated the spatial, as well as the subdaily to monthly tracer variability of supraglacial meltwater and the temporal tracer variability of winter baseflow to infer groundwater dynamics. The streamflow tracer variability during winter baseflow conditions was small, and the glacier melt tracer variation was higher, especially at the end of the ablation period. We applied a three‐component mixing model with electrical conductivity and oxygen‐18. Hydrograph separation (groundwater, glacier melt, and rain) was performed for 6 single glacier melt‐induced days (i.e., 6 events) during the ablation period 2016 (July to September). Median fractions (±uncertainty) of groundwater, glacier melt, and rain for the events were estimated at 49±2%, 35±11%, and 16±11%, respectively. Minimum and maximum glacier melt fractions at the subdaily scale ranged between 2±5% and 76±11%, respectively. A sensitivity analysis showed that the intraseasonal glacier melt tracer variability had a marked effect on the estimated glacier melt contribution during events with large glacier melt fractions of streamflow. Intra‐daily and spatial variation of the glacier melt tracer signature played a negligible role in applying the mixing model. The results of this study (a) show the necessity to apply a multiple sampling approach in order to characterize the glacier melt end‐member and (b) reveal the importance of groundwater and rainfall–runoff dynamics in catchments with a glacial flow regime.     

Increasing annual runoff—broadleaf or coniferous forests?

According to widely held belief, annual evapotranspiration (ET) for broadleaf forests is less than that for coniferous forests, resulting in higher annual runoff for broadleaf forests. We processed 82 catchment runoff and 126 interception loss data from temperate regions and found that although the belief is valid under conditions of broadleaf deciduous forests and high winter precipitation (e.g. the United States), it is invalid under conditions of broadleaf evergreen forests (e.g. New Zealand) or low winter precipitation (e.g. Japan). Thus, forest management policies based on this belief should be reconsidered on the basis of our results for regions with broadleaf evergreen forests or low winter precipitation. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.