A local model for analysis of pump and treat systems with vertical barrier walls

We present a mathematical model of local, steady groundwater flow near a vertical barrier wall. Flow features represented in the model include an impermeable arc-shaped barrier wall and multiple wells; distant boundary conditions are not included explicitly, but their effects on the local flow field are modelled by specifying a uniform flow at infinity and a constant areal recharge within a local domain. We develop an explicit closed-form solution to the boundary-value problem using the analytic element method. The solution is an extension of a harmonic solution presented by Anderson and Mesa [Anderson EI, Mesa E. The effects of vertical barrier walls on the hydraulic control of contaminated groundwater. Adv Water Resourc 2006;29(1):89–98] which does not include the effects of recharge. We demonstrate that the general solution with recharge consists of the harmonic solution superposed on a special case of the harmonic solution along with two elementary one-dimensional flow solutions. The results are used to investigate the effects of areal recharge on the capture zone envelopes of the pumping wells and on the reduction in discharge that can be achieved by including a barrier wall in a pump and treat design. We find that the benefits of including an open barrier wall in a design, measured as a reduction in the pumping rate required to contain a plume, increase for higher recharge rates. Dimensionless plots of capture zone envelopes are presented for a practical well and barrier wall configuration.     

Hydraulic subsurface measurements and hydrodynamic modelling as indicators for groundwater flow systems in the Rotondo granite,Central Alps (Switzerland)

Regional groundwater flow in high mountainous terrain is governed by a multitude of factors such as geology, topography, recharge conditions, structural elements such as fracturation and regional fault zones as well as man‐made underground structures. By means of a numerical groundwater flow model, we consider the impact of deep underground tunnels and of an idealized major fault zone on the groundwater flow systems within the fractured Rotondo granite. The position of the free groundwater table as response to the above subsurface structures and, in particular, with regard to the influence of spatial distributed groundwater recharge rates is addressed. The model results show significant unsaturated zones below the mountain ridges in the study area with a thickness of up to several hundred metres. The subsurface galleries are shown to have a strong effect on the head distribution in the model domain, causing locally a reversal of natural head gradients. With respect to the position of the catchment areas to the tunnel and the corresponding type of recharge source for the tunnel inflows (i.e. glaciers or recent precipitation), as well as water table elevation, the influence of spatial distributed recharge rates is compared to uniform recharge rates. Water table elevations below the well exposed high‐relief mountain ridges are observed to be more sensitive to changes in groundwater recharge rates and permeability than below ridges with less topographic relief. In the conceptual framework of the numerical simulations, the model fault zone has less influence on the groundwater table position, but more importantly acts as fast flow path for recharge from glaciated areas towards the subsurface galleries. This is in agreement with a previous study, where the imprint of glacial recharge was observed in the environmental isotope composition of groundwater sampled in the subsurface galleries. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Integrated modeling as a decision‐aiding tool for groundwater management in a Mediterranean agricultural watershed

A decision‐aiding methodology for agricultural groundwater management is presented; it is based on the combination of a watershed model, a groundwater flow model, and an optimization model. This methodology was applied to an agricultural watershed in northeastern Greece. The watershed model used was the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT), which provided recharge rates for the aquifers. These recharge rates were imported in the well‐known MODFLOW groundwater flow model. Both models were calibrated and verified using field data. Then, the nonlinear optimization problem was solved by a piecewise linearization process, in which the Simplex algorithm was applied sequentially. Apart from several pumping and climate change sensitivity scenarios, a land use change scenario and a climate change scenario, combining the three models, were tested, showing the ability of this methodology to be used in the decision‐making process. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Bridging the gap between numerical solutions of travel time distributions and analytical storage selection functions

Recent advancements in analytical solutions to quantify water and solute travel time distributions (TTDs) and the related StorAge Selection (SAS) functions synthesize catchment complexity into a simplified, lumped representation. Although these analytical approaches are efficient in application, they require rarely available long‐term and high‐frequency hydrochemical data for parameter estimation. Alternatively, integrated hydrologic models coupled to Lagrangian particle‐tracking approaches can directly simulate age under different catchment geometries and complexity, but at a greater computational expense. Here, we bridge the two approaches, using a physically based model to explore the uncertainty in the estimation of the SAS function shape. In particular, we study the influence of subsurface heterogeneity, interactions between distinct flow domains (i.e., the vadose zone and saturated groundwater), diversity of flow pathways, and recharge rate on the shape of TTDs and the SAS functions. We use an integrated hydrology model, ParFlow, linked with a particle‐tracking model, SLIM, to compute transient residence times (or ages) at every cell in the domain, facilitating a direct characterization of the SAS function. Steady‐state results reveal that the SAS function shape shows a wide range of variation with respect to the variability in the structure of subsurface heterogeneity. Ensembles of spatially correlated realizations of hydraulic conductivity indicate that the SAS functions in the saturated groundwater have an overall weak tendency toward sampling younger ages, whereas the vadose zone gives a strong preference for older ages. We further show that the influence of recharge rate on the TTD is tightly dependent on the variability of subsurface hydraulic conductivity.     

Prediction of Groundwater Quality Trends Resulting from Anthropogenic Changes in Southeast Florida

The effects of surface water flow system changes caused by constructing water‐conservation areas and canals in southeast Florida on groundwater quality under the Atlantic Coastal Ridge was investigated with numerical modeling. Water quality data were used to delineate a zone of groundwater with low total dissolved solids (TDS) within the Biscayne aquifer under the ridge. The delineated zone has the following characteristics. Its location generally coincides with an area where the Biscayne aquifer has high transmissivities, corresponds to a high recharge area of the ridge, and underlies a part of the groundwater mound formed under the ridge prior to completion of the canals. This low TDS groundwater appears to be the result of pre‐development conditions rather than seepage from the canals constructed after the 1950s. Numerical simulation results indicate that the time for low TDS groundwater under the ridge to reach equilibrium with high TDS surface water in the water‐conservation areas and Everglades National Park are approximately 70 and 60 years, respectively. The high TDS groundwater would be restricted to the water‐conservation areas and the park due to its slow eastward movement caused by small hydraulic gradients in Rocky Glades and its mixing with the low TDS groundwater under the high‐recharge area of the ridge. The flow or physical boundary conditions such as high recharge rates or low hydraulic conductivity layers may affect how the spatial distribution of groundwater quality in an aquifer will change when a groundwater flow system reaches equilibrium with an associated surface water flow system.     

Groundwater recharge estimation in arid hardrock‐alluvium aquifers using combined water‐table fluctuation and groundwater balance approaches

This paper proposes an approach to estimate groundwater recharge using an optimization‐based water‐table fluctuation method combined with a groundwater balance model in an arid hardrock‐alluvium region, located at the Oman–United Arab Emirates border. We introduce an “effective hardrock thickness” term to identify the percentage of the considered hardrock thickness in which effective groundwater flow takes place. The proposed method is based upon a Thiessen polygon zoning approach. The method includes subpolygons to represent specific geologic units and to enhance the confidence of the estimated groundwater recharge. Two linear and 1 nonlinear submodels were developed to evaluate the model components for the calibration (October 1996 to September 2008) and validation (October 2008 to September 2013) periods. Long‐term annual groundwater recharge from rainfall and return flow over the model domain are estimated as 24.62 and 5.71 Mm³, respectively, while the effective groundwater flow circulation is found to occur in the upper 7% of the known hardrock thickness (42 m), confirming conclusions of previous field studies. Considering a total difference in groundwater levels between eastern and western points of the study area of the order of 220 m and a 12‐year monthly calibration period, a weighted root mean squared error in predicted groundwater elevation of 2.75 m is considered quite reasonable for the study area characterized by remarkable geological and hydrogeological diversity. The proposed approach provides an efficient and robust method to estimate groundwater recharge in regions with a complex geological setting in which interaction between fractured and porous media cannot be easily assessed.     

Hydrogeological interactions between fault zones and alluvial aquifers in regional flow systems

The hydrological influence of fault zones in tectonic areas is usually difficult to depict from field data. Numerical simulation allows representation of such flow systems and an estimation of flow lines and rates. This paper reports on simulations of the groundwater flow in a range‐and‐basin area affected by a regional fault zone, which may drain or recharge an overlaying alluvial aquifer. Different hydraulic conductivity values for the range rocks, the fault‐zone, and the sedimentary infill of the basin are considered, as well as different fault‐zone widths and boundary conditions. Results show that upward and downward fluxes develop in the upper part of the fault zone, controlled by the action of the alluvial aquifer, influencing the recharge of the sedimentary basin. This paper shows the hydrological efficiency of fault zones as preferential flow; it also analyses the constraints that determine groundwater recharge to the surrounding basins. These results contribute to the understanding of hydrogeological dynamics in tectonic areas. Copyright © 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

The Effect of Modeled Recharge Distribution on Simulated Groundwater Availability and Capture

Simulating groundwater flow in basin‐fill aquifers of the semiarid southwestern United States commonly requires decisions about how to distribute aquifer recharge. Precipitation can recharge basin‐fill aquifers by direct infiltration and transport through faults and fractures in the high‐elevation areas, by flowing overland through high‐elevation areas to infiltrate at basin‐fill margins along mountain fronts, by flowing overland to infiltrate along ephemeral channels that often traverse basins in the area, or by some combination of these processes. The importance of accurately simulating recharge distributions is a current topic of discussion among hydrologists and water managers in the region, but no comparative study has been performed to analyze the effects of different recharge distributions on groundwater simulations. This study investigates the importance of the distribution of aquifer recharge in simulating regional groundwater flow in basin‐fill aquifers by calibrating a groundwater‐flow model to four different recharge distributions, all with the same total amount of recharge. Similarities are seen in results from steady‐state models for optimized hydraulic conductivity values, fit of simulated to observed hydraulic heads, and composite scaled sensitivities of conductivity parameter zones. Transient simulations with hypothetical storage properties and pumping rates produce similar capture rates and storage change results, but differences are noted in the rate of drawdown at some well locations owing to the differences in optimized hydraulic conductivity. Depending on whether the purpose of the groundwater model is to simulate changes in groundwater levels or changes in storage and capture, the distribution of aquifer recharge may or may not be of primary importance.     

Estimating parameters of groundwater recharge model in frequency domain: Karst springs Jadro and Žrnovnica

The spectral method is based on the assumption of exponential forms of autocorrelation functions of the input and output time series. The results of practical applications of the spectral method on several karst springs in Croatia show that this assumption cannot always be reliably applied to the time series of rainfall and spring discharge, especially if short time periods are analysed. For this reason, the method is modified. The scale factor between the transfer function of total rainfall and the transfer function of groundwater recharge is considered as an additional model parameter which is determined in the optimization procedure. In addition to the theoretical background, this paper also presents the results of application of the modified spectral method on the springs Jadro and ?rnovnica located in the Dinaric karst area in Croatia. The parameters of groundwater recharge model are determined separately for both the springs and the obtained values are discussed and compared with the results of previous investigations. The values of the scale factors determined in the optimization procedure are compared to the values calculated using the theoretical equation. The comparison shows that the theoretical equation underestimates the optimal values of the scale factor. The underestimations are especially evident for periods of one year. Finally, the characteristics of rainfall–runoff relations of two springs are compared using the identified transfer functions and the results of simulations of the periodogram of observed discharge by the parametric periodogram. Copyright © 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

MODIS‐Aided Statewide Net Groundwater‐Recharge Estimation in Nebraska

Monthly evapotranspiration (ET) rates (2000 to 2009) across Nebraska at about 1‐km resolution were obtained by linear transformations of the MODIS (MODerate resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer) daytime surface temperature values with the help of the Priestley–Taylor equation and the complementary relationship of evaporation. For positive values of the mean annual precipitation and ET differences, the mean annual net recharge was found by an additional multiplication of the power‐function‐transformed groundwater vulnerability DRASTIC‐code values. Statewide mean annual net recharge became about 29 mm (i.e., 5% of mean annual precipitation) with the largest recharge rates (in excess of 100 mm/year) found in the eastern Sand Hills and eastern Nebraska. Areas with the largest negative net recharge rates caused by declining groundwater levels due to large‐scale irrigation are found in the south‐western region of the state. Error bounds of the estimated values are within 10% to 15% of the corresponding precipitation rates and the estimated net recharge rates are sensitive to errors in the precipitation and ET values. This study largely confirms earlier base‐flow analysis‐based statewide groundwater recharge estimates when considerations are made for differences in the recharge definitions. The current approach not only provides better spatial resolution than available earlier studies for the region but also quantifies negative net recharge rates that become especially important in numerical modeling of shallow groundwater systems.     

Application of an integrated surface water‐groundwater model to multi‐aquifers modeling in Choushui River alluvial fan,Taiwan

This research proposes a combination of SWAT and MODFLOW, MD‐SWAT‐MODFLOW, to address the multi‐aquifers condition in Choushui River alluvial fan, Taiwan. The natural recharge and unidentified pumping/recharge are separately estimated. The model identifies the monthly pumping/recharge rates in multi‐aquifers so that the daily streamflow can be simulated correctly. A multi‐aquifers condition means a subsurface formation composed of at least the unconfined aquifer, the confined aquifer, and an in‐between aquitard. In such a case, the variation of groundwater level is related to pumping/recharge activities in vertically adjacent aquifer and the river‐aquifer interaction. Both factors in turn affect the streamflow performance. Results show that MD‐SWAT‐MODFLOW performs better than SWAT alone in terms of simulated streamflow, especially during low flow period, when pumping/recharge rates are properly estimated. A sensitivity analysis of individual parameter suggests that the vertical leakance may be the most sensitive among all investigated MODFLOW parameters in terms of the estimated pumping/recharge among aquifers, and the Latin‐Hypercube‐One‐factor‐At‐a‐Time sensitivity analysis indicates that the hydraulic conductivity of channel is the most sensitive to the model performance. It also points out the necessity to simultaneously estimate pumping/recharge rates in multi‐aquifers. The estimated net pumping rate can be treated as a lower bound of the actual local pumping rate. As a whole, the model provides the spatio‐temporal groundwater use, which gives the authorities insights to manage groundwater resources. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Studying the Flow Dynamics of a Karst Aquifer System with an Equivalent Porous Medium Model

The modeling of groundwater flow in karst aquifers is a challenge due to the extreme heterogeneity of its hydraulic parameters and the duality in their discharge behavior, that is, rapid response of highly conductive karst conduits and delayed drainage of the low‐permeability fractured matrix after recharge events. There are a number of different modeling approaches for the simulation of the karst groundwater dynamics, applicable to different aquifer as well as modeling problem types, ranging from continuum models to double continuum models to discrete and hybrid models. This study presents the application of an equivalent porous model approach (EPM, single continuum model) to construct a steady‐state numerical flow model for an important karst aquifer, that is, the Western Mountain Aquifer Basin (WMAB), shared by Israel and the West‐Bank, using MODFLOW2000. The WMAB was used as a catchment since it is a well‐constrained catchment with well‐defined recharge and discharge components and therefore allows a control on the modeling approach, a very rare opportunity for karst aquifer modeling. The model demonstrates the applicability of equivalent porous medium models for the simulation of karst systems, despite their large contrast in hydraulic conductivities. As long as the simulated saturated volume is large enough to average out the local influence of karst conduits and as long as transport velocities are not an issue, EPM models excellently simulate the observed head distribution. The model serves as a starting basis that will be used as a reference for developing a long‐term dynamic model for the WMAB, starting from the pre‐development period (i.e., 1940s) up to date.     

Comparison of two modeling approaches for groundwater–surface water interactions

An assessment of interactions between groundwater and surface water was carried out by applying two different modeling approaches to a small‐scale study area in the municipality of Havelock, Quebec. The first approach involved a commonly used sequential procedure that consists in determining the daily recharge rate using a quasi 2D infiltration model (HELP), applied in the next step as an imposed flux to a 3D finite‐element groundwater flow model. The flow model was calibrated under steady‐state and transient conditions against measured water levels. The second approach was based on a recently developed physically based, 3D fully coupled groundwater–surface water flow model (CATHY) applied to the entire flow domain in an integrated manner. Implementation, calibration, and results of the simulations for both approaches are presented and discussed. For equal annual precipitation (1038 mm/y) and evapotranspiration (556 mm/y), the second approach computed a recharge rate of 233 mm/y (8.9% higher than the first approach) and a net upward flow from the fractured aquifer (the first approach predicted a net downward flow to the rock). The simulated annual discharge was similar for the two approaches (9.6% difference). Both approaches were found to be useful in understanding the interactions between groundwater and surface water, although limitations are apparent in the sequential procedure's inability to account for surface–subsurface feedbacks, for instance near stream reaches where groundwater discharge is prevalent. The decoupled, two‐model approach provides disaggregated surface, vadose, and aquifer flows, and a simple aperçu at the different components of total discharge. The fully coupled model accounts for continuous water exchanges between the land surface, subsurface, and stream channel in a more complex manner, and produces a better match against observed data. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Semi‐Arid Aquifer Responses to Forest Restoration Treatments and Climate Change

The purpose of this study was to develop an interpretive groundwater‐flow model to assess the impacts that planned forest restoration treatments and anticipated climate change will have on large regional, deep (>400 m), semi‐arid aquifers. Simulations were conducted to examine how tree basal area reductions impact groundwater recharge from historic conditions to 2099. Novel spatial analyses were conducted to determine areas and rates of potential increases in groundwater recharge. Changes in recharge were applied to the model by identifying zones of basal area reduction from planned forest restoration treatments and applying recharge‐change factors to these zones. Over a 10‐year period of forest restoration treatment, a 2.8% increase in recharge to one adjacent groundwater basin (the Verde Valley sub‐basin) was estimated, compared to conditions that existed from 2000 to 2005. However, this increase in recharge was assumed to quickly decline after treatment due to regrowth of vegetation and forest underbrush and their associated increased evapotranspiration. Furthermore, simulated increases in groundwater recharge were masked by decreases in water levels, stream baseflow, and groundwater storage resulting from surface water diversions and groundwater pumping. These results indicate that there is an imbalance between water supply and demand in this regional, semi‐arid aquifer. Current water management practices may not be sustainable into the far future and comprehensive action should be taken to minimize this water budget imbalance.     

Nitrate transport in the unsaturated zone: a case study of the riverbank filtration system Karany,Czech Republic

Nitrate transport in the unsaturated zone of a riverbank filtration (RBF) system in Karany, Czech Republic, was studied. Previous study of the system estimated RBF recharge as 60% riverbank filtrate and 40% local groundwater contaminated by nitrates. Nitrate concentrations observed in RBF recently cannot be explained by simple groundwater contamination and a new conception of groundwater recharge is suggested. A two‐component model based on water ¹⁸O data modelled recharge of local groundwater. One component of groundwater recharge is rainfall and irrigation water moving through the unsaturated zone of the Quaternary sediments in piston flow. The second component is groundwater from the Cretaceous deposits with a free water table. Both the components of groundwater recharge have different nitrate concentrations, and resulting contamination of groundwater depends on the participation of water from Quaternary and Cretaceous deposits. Nitrates' origins and their mixing in the subsurface were traced by ¹⁵N data. Nitrate transport from the unsaturated zone is important and time variable source of groundwater contamination. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Quasi-Saturated Layer: Implications for Estimating Recharge and Groundwater Modeling

This study presents an extension of the concept of “quasi-saturation” to a quasi-saturated layer, defined as the uppermost dynamic portion of the saturated zone subject to water table fluctuations. Entrapped air here may cause substantial reductions in the hydraulic conductivity (K) and fillable pore water. Air entrapment is caused by a rising water table, usually as a result of groundwater recharge. The most significant effects of entrapped air are recharge overestimation based on methods that use specific yield (S_y), such as the water table fluctuation method (WTF), and reductions in K values. These effects impact estimation of fluid flow velocities and contaminant migration rates in groundwater. In order to quantify actual groundwater recharge rates and the effects of entrapped air, numerical simulations with the FEFLOW (Version 7.0) groundwater flow model were carried out using a quasi-saturated layer for a pilot area in Rio Claro, Brazil. The calculated recharge rate represented 16% of the average precipitation over an 8-year period, approximately half of estimates using the WTF method. Air entrapment amounted to a fillable porosity of 0.07, significant lower that the value of 0.17 obtained experimentally for S_y. Numerical results showed that the entrapped air volume in the quasi-saturated layer can be very significant (0.58 of the air fraction) and hence can significantly affect estimates of groundwater recharge and groundwater flow rates near the water table.     

Multivariate approaches optimize locations of groundwater pumping facilities for different hydrogeological scales

A number of optimization approaches regarding the design location of groundwater pumping facilities in heterogeneous porous media have elicited little discussion. However, the location of groundwater pumping facilities is an important factor because it affects water resource usage. This study applies two optimization approaches to estimate the best recharge zone and suitable locations of the pumping facilities in southwestern Taiwan for different hydrogeological scales. First, for the regional scale, this study employs numerical modelling, MODFLOW‐96, to simulate groundwater direction and the optimal recharge zone in the study area. Based on the model's calibration and verification results, this study preliminarily utilizes the simulated spatial direction of groundwater and compares the safe yield for each well group in order to determine the best recharge zone. Additionally, for the local scale, the micro‐hydrogeological characteristics are considered before determining the design locations of the pumping facilities. According to drawdown record data from six observation wells derived from pumping tests at the best recharge area, this study further utilizes the modified artificial neural network approach to improve the accuracy of the estimation parameters as well as to analyse the direction and anisotropy of the hydraulic conductivities of an equivalent homogeneous aquifer. The results suggested that the best locations for the pumping facilities are along the more permeable major direction. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Dynamics of a headwater system and peatland under current conditions and with climate change

Interactions between headwater aquifers and peatlands have received limited scientific attention. Hydrological stresses, including those related to climate change, may adversely impact these interactions. In this study, the dynamics of a southern Québec headwater system where a peatland is present is simulated under current conditions and with climate change. The model is calibrated in steady state on field‐measured data and provides satisfactory results for transient‐state conditions. Under current conditions, simulations confirm that the peatland is fed by the fractured bedrock aquifer year‐round and provides continuous baseflow to its outlets. Climate change is simulated through its impact on groundwater recharge. Predicted precipitation and temperature data from a suite of regional climate model scenarios provide a net precipitation variation range from +10% to ?30% for the 2041–2070 horizon. Calibrated recharge is modified within this range to perform a sensitivity analysis of the headwater model to recharge variations (+10%, ?15% and ?30%). Total contribution from the aquifer to rivers and streams varies from +14% to ?44% of the baseline for +10% to ?30% recharge changes from spring 2010 data, for example. With higher recharge, the peatland receives more groundwater, which could significantly change its vegetation pattern and eventually ecosystem functions. For a ?30% recharge, the peatland becomes perched above the aquifer during the summer, fall and winter. Recharge reductions also induce sharp declines in groundwater levels and drying streams. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Characteristics of Groundwater Recharge on the North China Plain

Groundwater recharge is an important component of the groundwater system. On the North China Plain (NCP), groundwater is the main water supply. Because of large‐scale overexploitation, the water table has declined, which has produced severe adverse effects on the environment and ecosystem. In this article, tracer experiment and watershed model were used to calculate and analyze NCP groundwater recharge. In the tracer experiment, average recharge was 108 mm/year and recharge coefficient 0.16. With its improved irrigation, vegetation coverage and evapotranspiration modules, the INFIL3.0 model was used for calculation of groundwater recharge. Regional modeling results showed an average recharge of 102 mm/year and recharge coefficient 0.14, for 2001–2009. These values are very similar to those from the field tracer experiment. Influences in the two methods were analyzed. The results can provide an important reference for NCP groundwater recharge.     

Coupled Surface and Groundwater Hydrological Modeling in a Changing Climate

Many current watershed modeling efforts now incorporate surface water and groundwater for managing water resources since the exchanges between groundwater and surface water need a special focus considering the changing climate. The influence of groundwater dynamics on water and energy balance components is investigated in the Snake River Basin (SRB) by coupling the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) and MODFLOW models (VIC‐MF) for the period of 1986 through 2042. A 4.4% increase in base flows and a 10.3% decrease in peak flows are estimated by VIC‐MF compared to the VIC model in SRB. The VIC‐MF model shows significant improvement in the streamflow simulation (Nash‐Sutcliffe efficiency [NSE] of 0.84) at King Hill, where the VIC model could not capture the effect of spring discharge in the streamflow simulation (NSE of ?0.30); however, the streamflow estimates show an overall decreasing trend. Two climate scenarios representing median and high radiative‐forcings such as representative concentration pathways 4.5 and 8.5 show an average increase in the water table elevations between 2.1 and 2.6 m (6.9 and 8.5 feet) through the year 2042. The spatial patterns of these exchanges show a higher groundwater elevation of 15 m (50 feet) in the downstream area and a lower elevation of up to 3 m (10 feet) in the upstream area. Broadly, this study supports results of previous work demonstrating that integrated assessment of groundwater‐surface water enables stakeholders to balance pumping, recharge and base flow needs and to manage the watersheds that are subjected to human pressures more sustainably.