Transition stages from a traditional city to an industrial city (Social and cultural environment of Tehran)

Some of Iran’s cities, specially Tehran that is the capital city of Iran have faced sudden changes of industrialization due to political, economic and ecological considerations. There is no doubt that it is not possible to conduct a thorough investigation of the cultural structures of these cities by theoretical models and they shall be evaluated in comparative and combinational terms. Because of the consideration mentioned above, different ethnicities and groups from different cultural backgrounds have been attracted to these cities and subcultures are highly influential in socialization, acculturation, solidarity, and integration of the individuals in the society. Although, one of the problems of the industrial cities all over the world, including Tehran is migration (from towns and villages), inflexible solutions and approaches to the migration problem are not logical. In addition, recourse to the weakness of the villages and attractions of the capital can not solve the problem (as shown by the author’s experience). Therefore, it seems that creating occupational opportunities in villages and towns is one of the practical and useful ways for the survival of small towns and reduction of the migration to big cities, including Tehran.     

Quantitative precipitation forecasting over Narmada Catchment

Quantitative precipitation forecasting (QPF) has been attempted over the Narmada Catchment following a statistical approach. The catchment has been divided into five sub-regions for the development of QPF models with a maximum lead-time of 24 hours. For this purpose the data of daily rainfall from 56 raingauge stations, twice daily observations on different surface meteorological parameters from 28 meteorological observatories and upper air data from 11 aerological stations for the nine monsoon seasons of 1972–1980 have been utilized. The horizontal divergence, relative vorticity, vertical velocity and moisture divergence are computed using the kinematic method at different pressure levels and used as independent variables along with the rainfall and surface meteorological parameters. Multiple linear regression equations have been developed using the stepwise procedure separately with actual and square root and log-transformed rainfall using 8-year data (1972–1979). When these equations were verified with an independent data for the monsoon season of 1980, it was found that the transformed rainfall equations fared much better compared to the actual rainfall equations. The performance of the forecasts of QPF model compared to the climatological and persistence forecasts has been assessed by computing the verification scores using the forecasts for the monsoon season of 1980.     

Diurnal variation of precipitation over the Carolina Sandhills region

The Carolina Sandhills are known to have an area of maximum precipitation on its western boundary during the summer mainly due to differences in soil types. Statistical analysis was performed on summer precipitation data from automated weather stations in the Carolinas, along the Sandhills for the years 2001 to 2006. Statistically significant difference was observed between the day and night precipitation amounts. A case study also revealed the diurnal pattern of convective precipitation.     

Characteristics of air flow over Andaman islands including precipitation

The characteristics of simulated air flow over Andaman Islands are studied with a two-dimensional version of the University of Virginia meso scale model (UVMM). Using the observed synoptic data as initial conditions, 24 hr simulations are obtained for a day each in April and November. These days are chosen to study the variations in the simulated flow pattern under different synoptic conditions including precipitation effects. A large scale condensation scheme is employed to consider the effect of latent heat release on the perturbations. The results show that the latent heat released by condensation strengthens the intensity of perturbations and the topography accelerates the arrival of sea breeze by about an hour. The model-simulated results, given in graphical form, are discussed and compared with available observations.     

北京地区强降水极端气候事件阈值

根据北京地区1951～2008年逐日降水量资料,采用排序法、插值法、正态变换法、平方根变换法和立方根变换法等5种计算阈值的方法,对强降水极端气候事件阈值的确定问题进行研究。研究结果表明,确定日降水量百分位阈值的方法,在5种计算阈值的方法中,平方根变换方法得到最好的效果。在阈值确定的样本中,可以使用30年滑动气候阶段的样本得到的阈值平均值,作为极端气候事件阈值。     

Groundwater chemistry within a plateau neighboring Matsumoto city,Japan

The change in groundwater chemistry along the groundwater flow path in the Matsumoto tunnel vicinity was studied, and the origin of the groundwater and dissoluted substances was determined. The relationship between the concentration of HCO₃ ^–, Ca²⁺, and Na⁺, and CO₂ gas pressure in the groundwater indicated that the HCO₃ ^–, Ca²⁺, and Na⁺ were produced by the reaction of the CO₂ gas in the groundwater and feldspar in the rocks. The relationship between the concentration of NO₃ ^– and the Eh and pH values in the groundwater indicated that in an oxidative condition, ammonia-oxidizing and nitriteoxidizing bacteria used NH₄ ⁺ and produced NO₃ ^– and H⁺, and in a reductive condition, denitrifying bacteria used NO₃ ^– and produced N₂ gas and OH^–. The stable hydrogen and oxygen isotopic ratio in the groundwater and precipitation indicated that the groundwater originated from precipitation that had fallen on the area. The concentration of³H and the stable hydrogen and oxygen isotopic ratios in the groundwater suggested that it has been getting warmer climatically for more than 60 years. The stable carbon isotopic ratio indicated that the HCO₃ ^– in the groundwater, excluding deep well water, originated from CO₂ gas produced by organic matter in the soil. The deep well water, which had a higher concentration of HCO₃ ^– than the other groundwater sampled, was thought to have acquired HCO₃ ^– though contact with rocks. The³⁶Cl/Cl ratio indicated the recharge age of the deep well water sampled at a depth of 760 m at the foot of the plateau was recent.     

长江流域降水极值的变化趋势

依据1960-2005年长江流域147个气象站逐日降水,ECHAM5/MPI-OM气候模式模拟的长江流域79个格点20世纪实验期(1941-2000年)以及未来3种排放情景(SRES-B1,A1B,A2)下21世纪前50年逐日降水数据,建立年最大强降水和汛期<1.27 mm/d的最长干旱持续天数序列。运用广义极值分布,广义帕雷托分布,广义逻辑分布与韦克比分布等4种分布函数定量拟合了长江流域降水极值的概率分布。研究表明:韦克比分布函数能够较好地拟合长江流域降水极值的概率分布。在3种排放情景下,未来降水极值的重现期呈现不同的空间分布特征。长江流域,尤其是中下游大部地区,1951-2000年间的50年一遇强降水和干旱事件,在2001-2050年间发展成为25年一遇降水极值事件。未来气候变暖条件下,降水极值重现期出现的这种变化趋势,将会对水资源趋势产生重大的影响。     

Modeling stalagmite growth by first principles of chemistry and physics of calcite precipitation

Growth rates and morphology of stalagmites are determined by the precipitation kinetics of calcite and the supply rates of water to their apex. Current modeling attempts are based on the assumption that precipitation rates decrease exponentially with distance along the surface. This, however, is an arbitrary assumption, because other functions for decrease could be used as well. Here we give a process-oriented model based on the hydrodynamics of a water sheet in laminar radial flow spreading outwards from the apex, and the well known precipitation rates F = α(c − c_eq); c is the actual calcium concentration at distance R from the growth axis, c_eq the equilibrium concentration of calcium with respect to calcite, and α is a kinetic constant. This enables us to calculate the concentration profile c(R) for any point of an actual surface of a stalagmite and consequently the deposition rates of calcite there. The numerical results show that under conditions constant in time the stalagmite grows into an equilibrium shape, which is established, when all points of its surface are shifting vertically by the same distance during a time interval. We also show this by strict mathematical proof. This new model is based entirely on first principles of physics and chemistry. The results show that the modeled precipitation rates can be approximated by a Gaussian decrease along the equilibrium surface. In general from the mathematical proof one finds a relation between the equilibrium radius of the stalagmite, Q the supply rate of water, and α the kinetic constant. This is also verified by numerical calculations. An interesting scaling law is found. Scaling all stalagmites by 1/R_eq and presenting them with the origin at their apex yields identical shapes of all. The shapes of the modeled stalagmites are compared to natural ones and show satisfactory agreement. Finally we explore the effect of varying water supply Q and kinetic constant α on the shape of a growing stalagmite, and estimate the minimum period of change that can be imprinted into the morphology of the stalagmite.     

Characteristics and circulation background of extreme precipitation over East China

Natural Hazards - Using the observed daily precipitation data across East China, this paper analyzes spatiotemporal changes of annual and seasonal extreme precipitation indices during...     

矿业城市产业转型中资源保护问题研究

产业转型是资源存储量在产业间的再配置过程,对地区经济的合理布局与可持续发展意义重大。以贵州省毕节市为例,分析了煤炭资源开发等传统产业的转型过程中存在的资源闲置、浪费、滥用等现实问题,提出转变发展观念、强化监督管理、加大技术投入、发展新兴产业、实现循环经济等对策建议,以促进经济与社会的持续发展,并为国内矿业城市的未来规划与转型发展提供有益借鉴。     

Relation between GRACE-derived surface mass variations and precipitation over Australia

Surface mass changes (SMCs) obtained from time-variable gravity observations of the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) satellite mission and precipitation data from the Australian Bureau of Metrology and the Tropical Rainfall Measurement Mission are analysed over the Australian continent to determine whether there is a statistically significant correlation between them. The multiple linear regression analysis and the principal-component analysis techniques are applied in order to reveal the spatial and temporal variability of each data set separately as well as their mutual relationships. The study provides results and their statistical significance for the whole of Australia including the Murray Darling Basin in the southeast. The results suggest a significant decrease in water storage in the southeast of Australia and a dominant annual cycle over the majority of the continent for the four year period considered (January 2003 to December 2006), both in the surface mass and rainfall time series. The study revealed a direct relation between the data sets over most parts of Australia as confirmed by visual comparison and correlation analysis. When compared with precipitation data GRACE-derived SMCs exhibit smoother spatial and temporal variations. The latter is better suited to detect long-term trends in the presence of strong annual signals, which can adversely affect long-term trend estimates. Results regarding the magnitude of the annual signal suggest that only about a fourth of the precipitation's water masses remain sufficiently long in an area to be detected as a gravity change. The respective phases of the annual signals show an average time lag of about 40 days between precipitation and SMCs, suggesting that it takes about one to two months until a temporal gravity observation can detect a precipitation event.     

ESEEM of industrial quartz powders: insights into crystal chemistry of Al defects

A set of raw industrial materials, that is, pure quartz and quartz-rich mixtures, were investigated through electron paramagnetic resonance and electron spin echo-envelope modulation spectroscopies, with the aim of evaluating the effective role played by defect centres and of assessing whether they can be used to monitor changes in the physical properties of quartz powders with reference to their health effects. The obtained results point to two interactions of the Al defect centres with H⁺, hosted in sites within the channels parallel and perpendicular to the c axis of quartz, respectively. These two Al/H⁺ (h_Al) centres exhibit a weak chemical bond, and their relative amounts appear to be modified/controlled by the thermo-mechanical processes underwent by powders. Indeed, a mechanically promoted inter-conversion between the two kinds of site is suggested. As a consequence, the h_Al centres are effective in monitoring even modest activations of powders, through thermal or mechanical processes, and they are also supposed to play a specific, relevant role in quartz reactivity during the considered industrial processes.     

铜陵市矿业型工业城市发展中的环境问题及对策

铜陵市是我国重要的有色金属工业基地,50多年来,矿业为国家和铜陵市的经济发展做出了巨大贡献,在铜矿资源日趋枯竭的同时,生态环境也遭到严重的污染和破坏.本文概述了铜陵市铜矿资源及开发利用情况;分析了生态环境存在的主要问题及原因;提出了实施生态修复工程、改善矿山生态环境,优化产业结构,推进清洁生产,减少环境污染,强化水资源管理,加强环境管理能力建设和建立生态环境治理的有效机制等对策及建议.     

订正与集成多模式的中国季度降水预测

针对两个最新换代的季度集合预测系统对中国季度降水预测中存在的系统缺陷,应用改进的贝叶斯联合概率模型（BJP）加以订正。对订正后的单一模式概率预测应用一种混合模型贝叶斯模型平均（BMA）方法加以集成,以综合各模式的优势来提高中国季度降水预测技巧。结果表明:BJP模型可有效地消除集合模式预测的系统偏差,同时大幅提高了概率预测的可靠性。经过订正的欧洲中尺度天气预报中心的 System4预测在许多季度在中国的很大区域范围内都显示出了一定的预测技巧;而澳洲气象局的POAMA2.4预测只在个别季度局部范围内具有技巧。使用BMA对订正后的单一模式预测进行集成可显著提高对中国季度降水预测的精度,相比单一模式预测,技巧得分为正值的网格百分率分别提高了13.3%和20.0%。     

A severe sea-effect snow episode over the city of Istanbul

In February 2005, unexpected heavy snowstorms lasted a couple of days with changing intensities, producing significant snowfall that eventually paralyzed the life of Istanbul metropolis. Surprisingly, there was no caution announcement prior to the onset of this unusual weather phenomenon. What was the reason behind this wrong prediction? In this case study, using a meteorological model, a heavy sea-effect snowfall, the reason of this phenomenon, was simulated and researched. With a persistent surface high-pressure center over western Russia, a surface low-pressure positioned in the center of southern Turkey was the dominant feature of the formation of the sea-effect snow over the city. In addition to strong northerly winds (19 m/s), low directional vertical wind shear (<30^o) and extremely long fetch distance (~600 km) feature; environmental conditions during the event were characterized by a sea-surface 850-hPa temperature difference of up to 14°C and a sea–land temperature difference as high as 24°C.