基于混沌时间序列的Volterra自适应滤波极移预报方法

针对极移复杂的时变特性, 根据混沌相空间坐标延迟重构理论, 提出一种基于Volterra自适应滤波的极移预报方法. 首先, 利用最小二乘拟合算法分离极移序列中的线性趋势项、钱德勒项和周年项, 获得线性极移、钱德勒极移和周年极移的外推值; 其次, 通过C-C关联积分法对最小二乘拟合残差序列进行相空间重构, 并利用小数据量法计算残差序列的最大Lyapunov指数验证其混沌特性, 在此基础上, 构建Volterra自适应滤波器对残差序列进行预测; 最后, 将线性极移、钱德勒极移和周年极移的外推值以及最小二乘拟合残差的预测值相加获得极移最终预报值. 利用国际地球自转服务局(International Earth Rotation and Reference Systems Service, IERS)提供的极移数据进行1--60d跨度预报, 并将预报结果分别与国际地球定向参数预报比较竞赛(Earth Orientation Parameters Prediction Comparison Campaign, EOP PCC)结果和IERS A公报发布的极移预报产品进行对比, 结果表明: 对于1--30d的短期预报, 该方法的预报精度与EOP PCC最优预报方法相当, 当预报跨度超过30d时, 该方法的预报精度低于EOP PCC最优预报方法, 优于参与EOP PCC的其他方法; 与IERS A公报相比, 该方法的短期预报效果较好, 当预报跨度增加时预报精度低于IERS A公报. 预报结果表明该方法更适合于极移短期预报.     

基于有效角动量函数的多参数极移预报

极移的变化与多种激发息息相关,这些激发包括大气表面压力和大气风、海底压力和洋流、陆地水分布以及气候变暖导致的海平面变化,并且可以通过有效角动量函数来估计.在极移预报中,通过刘维尔方程融合有效角动量函数,并利用最小二乘与自回归组合的方法进行拟合及外推,同时,对自回归模型的可调节参数设置更多的选择,在不同的极移预报阶段,对于不同分量的预报匹配更优的参数,有效地提高了极移的预报精度.在441次1–90 d的极移预报实验中,短中期的预报改善更为明显,在1–6 d和7–30 d的极移X预报结果中,分别有56.9%和53.5%优于国际地球自转服务(International Earth Rotation Service, IERS)的预报;在1–6 d和7–30 d的极移Y预报结果中,分别有66.5%和59.7%优于IERS的预报.整体上,极移Y的预报精度比极移X的预报精度有更多的提升,以IERS的地球定向参数(Earth Orientation Parameters, EOP)产品EOP 14C04 (IAU2000A)为参考,极移X预报在第1 d、第5 d的MAE (Mean Absolute...     

利用奇异谱分析提高极移中长期预报精度

由于空间大地观测数据传输耗时及处理过程复杂, 导致极移测量值的获取存在时延, 无法满足对高精度的极移预报值有重大需求的应用领域. 针对极移复杂的时变特性, 提出一种基于奇异谱分析(singular spectrum analysis, SSA)的预报方法. 首先用SSA分离提取极移时序中的高频组分与低频组分; 其次建立最小二乘(least square, LS)外推与自回归(AutoreGressive, AR)模型对极移高频和低频组分进行组合预报. 结果表明, SSA方法能够准确地分离和提取极移低频和高频组分, 对低频和高频组分组合预报可以显著改善极移的中长期(30--365d)预报精度, 与国际地球自转和参考系服务局(International Earth Rotation and Reference Systems Service, IERS)提供的A公报中的极移预报值相比, SSA方法对极移PMX分量(本初子午线方向)和PMY分量(西90$^\circ$子午线方向)的中长期预报精度改进最高分别可达45.97%和62.44%. 研究结果验证了SSA方法对极移中长期预报改进的有效性.     

Temporal Variations in the Second-Degree Stokes Tesseral Geopotential Coefficients from Topex/Poseidon Altimetry

The TOPEX/POSEIDON (T/P) altimetry data set covering the periodof January 1, 1993 to January 3, 2001 was used to derive monthlyseries of the second-degree tesseral geopotential coefficients.To account for the sea water temperature variations, rathersimple models have been devised and discussed, describinglocalized as well as areal variations of sea water temperatureand heights. The second-degree tesseral coefficients have alsobeen shown to be proportional to the pressureportions of the oceanic equatorial effective excitation functions,used in Ocean Angular Momentum (OAM) data. OAM datatogether with Atmospheric Angular Momentum (AAM) data canbe used to study observed polar motion (PM) series.The excess PM rates, derived from the T/P effective excitationfunctions, were compared to the corresponding observed PM rates,derived from the International Earth Rotation Service (IERS)Bulletin A and corrected with AAM also obtainedfrom IERS. The noise of the T/P derived PM rate series was foundto be significantly larger than the corresponding Bulletin A/AAMPM rate residuals as well as the PM rates derived from anindependent OAM series that was also available for the1993–2000 period.     

IGS′92联测期间地极坐标的高频波动

本文分析了ＩＧＳ＇９２联测期间七个ＧＰＳ数据处理中心提供的极坐标序列。通过谱分析、最小二乘拟合和Ｆ检验，表明在这些序列中存在一些共同的高频波动：在Ｘ方向上具有２７．０，１６．５，１３．４和１０．４天的周期，在Ｙ方向上的波动周期约为２０．５，１５．８和１０．０天。并且每个序列与ＥＯＰ（ＩＥＲＳ）９２Ｃ０４之间都存在一个系统差。计算与分析表明，这些系统偏离的主要原因是由于在用ＧＰＳ资料解算Ｘ、Ｙ时，不同分析中心采用了不同系统的台站坐标（或者说只有部分台站采用了固定的台站坐标），从而造成这些序列所在的参考架与ＩＴＲＦ９１之间存在一个平移和旋转。最后，计算了该期间的大气角动量激发函数，可部分地解释该期间的Ｘ、Ｙ高频波动的原因。     

Using the quasar VLBI network for the fundamental time—positioning service of the GLONASS space system

Regular high-precision determinations of the Earth’s orientation parameters (EOPs) on the Quasar VLBI Network were begun in August 2006. The observations are performed within the framework of two national programs: daily sessions at three observatories of the Network to determine all five EOPs (the RU-E program) and 8-h sessions on the Zelenchukskaya-Badary and Svetloe-Badary baselines to determine the Universal Time (the RU-U program). The observations from August 2006 through May 2007 are analyzed. The rms deviations of the EOP values obtained in the RU-E program from the IERS C04 series are 1.1 mas for X _p and Y _p, 37 μs for UT1-UTC, and 0.7 and 0.6 mas for X _c and Y _c, respectively. These results closely match the prospective requirements of GLONASS. The rms deviations of the Universal Times obtained in the RU-U program from the IERS C04 series are 146 μs. We consider the immediate prospects for improving the accuracy of EOP determinations in daily sessions and for implementing the e-VLBI mode for an online determination of the Universal Time. Original Russian Text ? A.M. Finkelstein, E.A. Skurikhina, I.F. Surkis, A.V. Ipatov, I.A. Rakhimov, S.G. Smolentsev, 2008, published in Pis’ma v Astronomicheskiĭ Zhurnal, 2008, Vol. 34, No. 1, pp. 66–76.     

On the regime of the Earth’s polar motion based on data for the period 1962–2007

The view of the Earth’s polar motion as a completely deterministic process has been called into question in the past decades, because no long-term prediction can be made. At the same time, no fundamental restrictions currently exist in the problem of a long-term prediction of the Earth’s rotation. Determining the boundaries of predictability is related to identifying the regime of the Earth’s polar motion. IERS data for the period 1962–2007 have been used to study the regime of the Earth’s polar motion. Analysis of the plots of polhodes reveals peculiarities in the variations of the pole’s coordinates X and Y in certain intervals along the time axis. The data in the interval from 2003 to 2006 have been analyzed in greatest detail: a model for the Chandler and annual oscillations has been constructed and relations between the parameters of these oscillations have been determined; the shift of the instantaneous pole on the phase plane and the Poincare plane has been investigated. As a result, we have found features inherent in chaotic motion (intermittency) and calculated the period (32 years) of the possible repetitions of such anomalies, as confirmed by our analysis of the plots of polhodes. The intervals where the peculiarities in the motion of the Earth’s instantaneous pole manifest themselves are compared with the intervals of the inflections on the plots of variations in the length of the day (LOD).     

无先验基准方法在SLR资料处理中的应用

SLR（satellite Laser Ranging)资料处理一般来说总是由各SLR测站构成的从标框架里进行。为了克服在SLR资料处理过程中对坐标框架的重复定义，利用全球1999年1月到12月的LAGEOS-1的SLR资料以无先验基准方法解算EOP（Earth Orientation Parameters）和所有SLR站的坐标的试验。在SLR资料处理中用无先验基准方法与GPS（Glaobal Positioning System)的不太一样，由于SLR的资料不能把SLR观测站连结成非常牢固的空间多面体（GPS的资料在每一瞬间可以拟测站联成一完整的空间多面体），因此需要加一些约束，以避免法方程出现秩亏。解得的测站从标用7参数转换到ITRF97坐标系，rms为1.3cm。EOP与IERS的eopc04序列相比，Xp、Yp、的rms分别为0.37mas、0.30mas，LOD（Length Of Day)的rmas为0.019ms。     

IVS分析中心EOP产品及精度评估

介绍了国际测地/天体测量学甚长基线干涉测量服务(International Very Long Baseline Interferometry (VLBI) Service for Geodesy and Astrometry, IVS)组织机构及下属分析中心概况.系统归纳了目前IVS发布的地球定向参数(Earth Orientation Parameters, EOP)产品类型及不同观测类型的用途.利用2010—2019年公开发布的观测资料,对IVS不同分析中心的EOP日常监测和服务能力进行了评估.通过构造观测台站所构成的几何体积,分析了EOP精度与测站数量、测站网分布的关系,统计了IVS不同观测类型的EOP解算精度.此外,综合公开发布的美国、欧洲等区域网观测数据,分析了不同地区区域网的常规及加强观测结果与IVS结果的差异.结果表明:EOP的解算精度与观测台站的分布密切相关, IVS常规观测确定的极移分量的外符合精度优于0.2 mas,世界时(Universal Time, UT1)与协调世界时(Coordinated Universal Time,UTC)之差(UT1-UTC)的精度在0.015 ms左右,加强观测的UT1-UTC值与国际自转服务组织(International Earth Rotation Service, IERS)的C04之间存在0.02–0.03 ms的差异.区域观测网的精度受观测网形和基线长度制约,总体劣于IVS观测精度,其中,美国甚长基线干涉阵列(Very Long Baseline Array, VLBA)的常规及加强观测结果与IVS全球观测结果最接近.     

Earth rotation in the hipparcos reference frame

New determination of the Earth orientation parameters (EOP), based on optical astrometry observations since the beginning of the century, is now under preparation by the Working group established by Commission 19 of the IAU. The Hipparcos catalog is to define the celestial reference frame in which the new series of EOP are to be described, The novelties of the prepared solution are the higher resolution (5 days) and more parameters estimated from the solution (celestial pole offsets, rheological parameters of the Earth, certain instrumental constants). The mathematical model of the solution is described, and the results based on the observations made with 46 instruments at 29 observatories and a preliminary Hipparcos catalog are presented.     

利用Lageos 1 SLR资料解算1990-2001年的地球定向参数

利用 12年的Lageos 1卫星激光测距资料 (1990 - 2 0 0 1)解算得到了地球定向参数 (EOP) ,将该序列的结果与同期的EOP(IERS)C0 4进行比较 ,其外符精度为 :极移XP— 0 .4 0mas,YP— 0 .4 2mas ,日长变化Dr— 0 .0 35ms。     

Improved Estimation of Earth Rotation Parameters Using the Adaptive Ridge Regression

The multicollinearity among regression variables is a common phenomenon in the reduction of astronomical data. The phenomenon of multicollinearity and the diagnostic factors are introduced first. As a remedy, a new method, called adaptive ridge regression (ARR), which is an improved method of choosing the departure constant θ in ridge regression, is suggested and applied in a case that the Earth orientation parameters (EOP) are determined by lunar laser ranging (LLR). It is pointed out, via a diagnosis, the variance inflation factors (VIFs), that there exists serious multicollinearity among the regression variables. It is shown that the ARR method is effective in reducing the multicollinearity and makes the regression coefficients more stable than that of using ordinary least squares estimation (LS), especially when there is serious multicollinearity. This revised version was published online in July 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

用lageos1和lageos2激光测距资料联合解地球定向参数

为了响应国际地球自转服务中心(IERS)和国际激光测距服务中心(ILRS)的呼吁，上海天文台天文地球动力学研究中心参加了对激光测距卫星lageos1、lageos2的资料的分析、计算，提交了关于地球定向参数(EOP)(1998—2001)的联合(1ageos1、lageos2)解算结果报告：(SHAO)2002L01，利用更精细化的和改正了的计算EOP的模型，获得了EOP(SHAO)2002L01系列，该系列与同时期的IERS的EOP(IERS)C04相比，符合程度：极移Xp、Yp好于0．35mas，日长变化Du好于0．030ms。     

1988年至1995年IERS天球参考架的指向维持

本文分析了１９９２年至１９９５年期间国际地球自转服务（ＩＥＲＳ）天球参考架的指向维持情况，结合１９８８年至１９９２年的指向维持情况指出，该参考架在１９８８年至１９９５年期间历年的指向均存在显著变化，赤经零点和天极的最大年度漂移约为０．４ｍａｓ。至１９９５年，ＩＥＲＳ天球参考架的赤经零点和天极与各自预期位置的偏差不于０．４ｍａｓ。１９９４年和１９９５年的ＩＥＲＳ天球参考架基本上维持了１９９３年的ＩＥＲＳ天球参考指向，但是其实际维持精度约为０．０５ｍａｓ，并非０．００５ｍａｓ。０．００５ｍａｓ的维持精度只是数学上的平均效果，相当一部分基本源在相邻年度的ＩＥＲＳ天球参考架中的坐标差大于０．５ｍａｓ，这说明只有采用恰当的消除局部相对形变的方法，才能将天球参考架的指向真正维持在较高水平。     

1988至1992各年度IERS综合河外射电源表的重新归算

鉴于ＩＥＲＳ综合河外射电源表在建立ＩＡＵ协议天球参考架方面的重要意义和它们的不足之处，本文重新组建了１９８８至１９９２各年度的综合河外射电源表，称之为Ｃａｔ系列表。并依据综合表的组建原理，对重新计算得到的Ｃａｔ系列表进行了检验，结果表明Ｃａｔ系列表克服了ＩＥＲＳ系列表中坐标系不统一的缺点，指向的定义及维持亦较之ＩＥＲＳ系列表有较大程度地改观。比较结果显示，ＩＥＲＳ系列表中部分源的坐标存在毫角秒量级的偏差，各年度综合表的指向与ＩＥＲＳ预期指向亦有不同程度的偏离，个别轴的最大指向偏差至０．６ｍａｓ。同时指出，１９９３年ＩＥＲＳ综合表的指向亦有待讨论。     

地球自转变化的重力效应

极移对重力测量的影响在前人的研究和工作中已得到了充分的考虑并有不同形式的改正公式。但是由于地轴转动速率变化的重力效应的量级很小,且限于以前的测量精度以及资料处理方法, 因而常常被忽略。随着重力测量精度的提高以及资料处理方法的改进, 有必要重新讨论该项影响。本文从推导地球瞬时自转极运动对地面台站重力测量值影响的公式入手, 将地球自转角速率变化的重力效应和极移的重力效应分离开来, 并对它们的量级分别作了估计。本文着重讨论自转角速率变化对重力测量的影响。用 Ｉ Ｅ Ｒ Ｓ 的日长变化序列和极移序列分别具体地计算了１９８２ ～１９９６ 年期间对武汉的重力测量值的影响, 结果表明, 自转角速率变化对武汉地区重力值的影响最大可达０ ．２５ ｍｉｃｒｏｇａｌ（ｐｅａｋ －ｔｏ － ｐｅａｋ） , 这在高精度的绝对重力测量和相对重力测量中不应再被忽略     

Forced nutations of a two-layer Earth model

In this paper we present a theory of the Earth rotation for a model composed of an inelastic mantle and a liquid core, including the dissipation in the core–mantle boundary (CMB). The main features of the theory are: (i) to be Hamiltonian, therefore the computation of some complex inner torques can be avoided; (ii) to be self-consistent and non-dependent on a previous rigid Earth theory, so there is no need to use transfer functions; (iii) to be analytical, the solution being derived by perturbation methods. Numerical nutation series deduced from the theory are compared with the IERS 96 empirical series, an accuracy better than 0.8 mas in providing celestial ephemeris pole (CEP) offsets .     

Toward the construction of a new precession-nutation theory of nonrigid Earth

The accuracy of the rigid Earth solution SMART97 is 2?μ as over the time interval (1968, 2023), accuracy showed by the comparison with a numerical integration using the positions of the Moon, the Sun, and the planets given by DE403. To obtain a nonrigid Earth solution, we use the transfer function of Mathews et al. (2000) and , to keep the precision of our rigid Earth solution in the computation of the geophysical effects, we apply this transfer function to the Earth's angular velocity vector in order to avoid the inherent approximations of the classical methods. Moreover the perturbations of the third component of the angular velocity vector are taken into account. Lastly, we take into account, in an iterative process, the second order perturbations due to the geophysical effects. The results are compared with the Herring solution (1996) published in the IERS Conventions.     

Atmospheric Excitation of Time Variable Length-of-Day on Seasonal Scales

We use the method of wavelet transform to analyze the time series of the Earth's rotation rate of the EOP(IERS)C04.The result shows that the seasonal (annual and semiannual)variation of the length-of-day(LOD)has temporal vari- ability in its period length and amplitude.During 1965.0-2001.0,the periods of the semiannual and annual components varied mainly from 175-day to 190-day and from 360-day to 370-day,respectively;while their amplitudes varied by more than 0.2 ms and 0.1 ms,respectively.Analyzing the axial component of atmospheric angular mo- mentum(AAM)during this period,we have found that time-variations of period lengths and amplitudes also exist in the seasonal oscillations of the axial AAM and are in good consistency with those of the seasonal LOD change.The time variation of the axial AAM can explain largely the change of the LOD on seasonal scales.     

Prediction in Real Time of the 2000 July 14 Heliospheric Shock Wave and its Companions During the `Bastille' Epoch*

Prediction of solar-generated disturbances and their three-dimensional propagation through interplanetary space continues to present a vitally important operational space weather forecasting objective. This paper presents the first successful real-time prediction of a series of major heliospheric shock waves at Earth, including the one from the 14 July 2000 (`Bastille Day') flare. An ensemble of three models and their predictions were distributed to a world-wide group of interested scientists as part of an informal Internet space weather forecast research program. Two of the models, STOA (Shock Time of Arrival) and ISPM (Interplanetary Shock Propagation Model), presently in operation by the US Air Force Weather Agency, provided predictions of shock arrival time (SAT) that were, respectively, 0.5 hours after and 3.7 hours before the observed arrival. The third model, HAFv.2 (Hakamada–Akasofu–Fry version 2.0) predicted a time 0.3 hours after the observed shock arrival time (14:37 UT, 15 July 2000). Of primary interest to this study is the third model, firstly in terms of its capability of propagating shocks through non-uniform solar wind conditions, and secondly, in terms of its ability to integrate multiple solar events and display them graphically along with the background solar wind. This latter capability was brought to bear on ten real-time-reported flares, some with CMEs (coronal mass ejections) that took place as companions to the Bastille flare during the period 7–15 July 2000. Some limited statistics are given regarding the three models' shock arrival prediction capability at Earth, as an extension of our earlier studies with this three model ensemble in the prediction of SAT. HAFv.2, however, was able to describe not only the ten events and their interaction as measured at Earth, but also at the spacecraft NEAR (orbiting the asteroid, Eros, at 1.8 AU), and CASSINI (en route, at 4.0 AU, to Saturn). Several important points are noted: (1) this epoch represents a small statistical sample that should be expanded; and (2) the three models, based on theory, empiricism, and simulations represent the state of the art that should presage a similar community process. This paper was presented earlier as an Invited Talk at the American Geophysical Union Fall Meeting, December 14–19, 2000, in San Francisco, CA, U.S.A.toward space weather objectives in the Sun-Earth domain. Supplementary material to this paper is available in electronic form at http://dx.doi.org/10.1023/A:1014200719867