Properties of solar activity and ionosphere for solar cycle 25

Based on the known forecast of solar cycle 25 amplitude (Rz _max ≈ 50), the first assessments of the shape and amplitude of this cycle in the index of solar activity F10.7 (the magnitude of solar radio flux at the 10.7 cm wavelength) are given. It has been found that (F10.7)_max ≈ 115, which means that it is the lowest solar cycle ever encountered in the history of regular ionospheric measurements. For this reason, many ionospheric parameters for cycle 25, including the F2-layer peak height and critical frequency (hmF2 and foF2), will be extremely low. For example, at middle latitudes, typical foF2 values will not exceed 8–10 MHz, which makes ionospheric heating ineffective in the area of upper hybrid resonance at frequencies higher than 10 MHz. The density of the atmosphere will also be extremely low, which significantly extends the lifetime of low-orbit satellites. The probability of F-spread will be increased, especially during night hours.     

Global empirical model of critical frequency of the ionospheric <Emphasis Type="Italic">F</Emphasis>2-layer for quiet geomagnetic conditions

Using the foF2 database obtained from satellites and ground-based ionospheric stations, we have constructed a global empirical model of the critical frequency of the ionospheric F2-layer (SDMF2—Satellite and Digisonde Data Model of the F2 layer) for quiet geomagnetic conditions (Kp < 3). The input parameters of this model are the geographical coordinates, UT, day, month, year, and the integral index F10.7 (day, τ = 0.96) of solar activity for a given day. The SDMF2 model was based on the Legendre method for the spatial expansion of foF2 monthly medians to 12 in latitude and 8 in longitude of spherical harmonics. The resulting spatial coefficients have been expanded by the Fourier method in three spherical harmonics with respect to UT. The effect of the saturation of critical frequency of the ionospheric F2-layer at high solar activity was described in the SDMF2 model by foF2 as a logarithmic function of F10.7 (day, τ = 0.96). The difference between the SDMF2 and IRI models is a maximum at low solar activity as well as in the Southern Hemisphere and in the oceans. The testing on the basis of ground-based and satellite data has indicated that the SDMF2 model is more accurate than the IRI model.     

Global electron content during solar cycle 23

Global electron content (GEC) as a new ionospheric parameter was first proposed by Afraimovich et al. [2006]. GEC is equal to the total number of electrons in the near-Earth space. GEC better than local parameters reflects the global response to a change in solar activity. It has been indicated that, during solar cycle 23, the GEC dynamics followed similar variations in the solar UV irradiance and F _10.7 index, including the 11-year cycle and 27-day variations. The dynamics of the regional electron content (REC) has been considered for three belts: the equatorial belt and two midlatitude belts in the Northern and Southern hemispheres (±30° and 30°–65° geomagnetic latitudes, respectively). In contrast to GEC, the annual REC component is clearly defined for the northern and southern midlatitude belts; the REC amplitude is comparable with the amplitude of the seasonal variations in the Northern Hemisphere and exceeds this amplitude in the Southern Hemisphere by a factor of ～1.7. The dayside to nightside REC ratio, R(t), at the equator is a factor of 1.5 as low as such a GEC ratio, which indicates that the degree of nighttime ionization is higher, especially during the solar activity maximum. The pronounced annual cycle with the maximal R(t) value near 8.0 for the winter Southern Hemisphere and summer Northern Hemisphere is typical of midlatitudes.     

Variations in the fractal dimension of fluctuations of the ionospheric <Emphasis Type="Italic">F</Emphasis>2 layer critical frequency

The 40-year period of observations of short-term variations (with characteristic times of up to 1–2 days) in the critical frequency of the ionospheric F2 layer (foF2) is analyzed. The continuous (with a step of 1 h) series of fluctuations (F) of the foF2 critical frequency (with eliminated daily variations) has been calculated using the hourly variations in foF2 at Moscow stations. The fractal dimension (FRH) of the fluctuations, characterizing short-term variations in foF2, has been determined and analyzed on a 30-day interval, using the Higuchi method. It has been established that FRH estimates substantially change in time. The 11-year cycle, which is in antiphase with the solar cycle, and the total annual and semiannual variations, similar to the variations observed in the normalized critical frequency of the E region and in the electron density of the D region, are clearly defined in these changes. Thus, the parameters of fast variations in the ionospheric F2 layer are affected by the phase of the 11-year solar cycle and by the position of the Earth in the orbit or seasonal variations in the atmosphere.     

Atmosphere–ionosphere response to solar eclipse over Kharkiv on March 20, 2015

The results of the observations of aperiodic and quasi-periodic disturbances in E and F1 ionospheric layers and air temperature variations in the surface atmosphere on the day of the solar eclipse and control days are presented. The ionospheric processes were monitored by vertical sounding Doppler radar. The measurements showed that, near the time of the maximum coverage of the solar disk, the greatest decrease in the density of electrons in the layers E and F1 was ～27%, which is close to the calculated value (25%). The solar eclipse was accompanied by the generation of traveling ionospheric disturbances with a period of 8–12 min and a relative amplitude of electron density variations of ～0.6–1.5%. Because of the haze in the surface atmosphere, its temperature, which was monitored at observation points at a distance of 50–60 km from each other did not exceed 1°C near the time of the maximum eclipse magnitude.     

Statistical Analysis and Modeling of the Local Ionospheric Critical Frequency: A Mid-latitude Single-Station Model for Use in Forecasting

The hourly values of the F-layer critical frequency from the ionospheric sounder in Dourbes (50.1°N, 4.6°E) during the time interval from 1957 to 2010, comprising five solar cycles, were analyzed for the effects of the solar activity. The hourly time series were reduced to hourly monthly medians which in turn were used for fitting a single station foF₂ monthly median model. Two functional approaches have been investigated: a statistical approach and a spectral approach. The solar flux F_10.7 is used to model the dependence of foF₂ on the solar activity and is incorporated into both models by a polynomial expression. The statistical model employs polynomial functions to fit the F-layer critical frequency while the spectral model is based on spectral decomposition of the measured data and offers a better physical interpretation of the fitting parameters. The daytime and nighttime foF₂ values calculated by both approaches are compared during high and low solar activity. In general, the statistical model has a slightly lower uncertainty at the expense of the larger number of fitting parameters. However, the spectral approach is superior for modeling the periodic effects and performs better when comparing the results for high and low solar activity. Comparison with the International Reference Ionosphere (IRI 2012) shows that both local models are better at describing the local values of the F-layer critical frequency.     

Characteristics of Pc4–5 pulsations obtained using the method of bistatic backscatter of HF radio waves,the EISCAT HF heating facility,and ground-based magnetometers

The results of studying the Pc4–5 pulsation parameters based on the method of bistatic backscatter of radio waves, using the EISCAT/Heating HF facility (Tromsø, Norway) and IMAGE ground-based magnetometers (Scandinavia), are presented. The observations were performed during the morning hours on October 3, 2006, when a substorm developed on the nightside. An analysis of the observational data obtained from 1000 to 1020 UT indicated that wave-like disturbances with periods corresponding to Pc4–5 pulsations (80–240 s) existed at that time. The variations in the full vector of the ionospheric irregularity motion and the electric field strength in an artificially disturbed high-latitude ionospheric F region has been reconstructed based on simultaneous Doppler observations on two paths. A general conformity is observed among the time variations in Pc4–5 pulsations in the magnetic and ionospheric data: between the velocity amplitude (|V|) and the X component of the Earth’s magnetic field and between the irregularity motion azimuth and the Y component. Large-scale waves, corresponding to the natural resonances of magnetic field lines (small values of the azimuthal number |m| ～ 2–4), and small-scale waves (large values |m| ～ 17–20) were simultaneously registered during the experiment based on magnetic data. It has been indicated that the periods of wave-like processes registered using the method of bistatic backscatter and ground-based magnetometers were in agreement with one another. The formation of wave-like processes is explained by the nonstationary impact of the solar wind and IMF on the Earth’s magnetosphere. The variations in the IMF, according to the ACE satellite measurements, were characterized by a sharp increase in the solar wind plasma dynamic pressure that occurred at about 09 UT on October 3, 2006, and was accompanied by rapid polarity reversals of the north-ward-southward (B _z) and transverse (B _y) IMF components.     

Increase in the critical frequency of the ionospheric <Emphasis Type="Italic">F</Emphasis> region prior to the substorm expansion phase

Specific variations in the critical frequency of the ionospheric F ₂ layer during magnetospheric substorms have been found based on the data of vertical sounding stations in Europe and North America. Maximal attention has been paid to the positive peaks of ΔfoF2 with a duration of 6–8 h before the beginning of the substorm expansion phase (T ₀). The possible physical mechanisms by which these peaks are formed (related to the impact of fast particles in the foreshock region of the solar wind on the Earth’s magnetosphere and different for middle and high latitudes) have been considered. The positive peaks of ΔfoF2 can be used in a short-term prediction of the ionospheric disturbance onset and space weather on the whole.     

Effects of the solar eclipse of March 29, 2006, in the ionosphere and atmosphere

The observations of the effects of the partial (about 77%) solar eclipse (SE) of March 29, 2006, in the ionospheric plasma are presented. The experimental data were obtained using the Kharkov incoherent scatter radar. At the moment of the maximum phase of SE, a decrease in the critical frequency of the ionospheric F ₂ layer by 18%, a depletion of the density in the F ₂ layer maximum by 33%, and an increase in the maximum height z _m by 30 km were observed. The solar eclipse caused a decrease in the electron and ion temperatures by 150–300 and 100–200 K, respectively, within the height range 210–490 km. An increase in the relative density of the hydrogen ions during the maximum phase of SE by 20–25% within the height range 900–1200 km is detected. Calculations of the parameters of dynamical processes and thermal regime of the ionospheric plasma during SE are performed.     

Anomalous variations in the ionospheric <Emphasis Type="Italic">F</Emphasis><Subscript>2</Subscript>-layer structure at geomagnetic midlatitudes of the Southern and Northern hemispheres at the transition from summer to winter conditions under low solar activity

The structure and dynamics of the ionosphere and plasmasphere at low solar activity under quiet geomagnetic conditions on January 15–17, 1985, and July 10–13, 1986, over Millstone Hill station and Argentine Islands ionosonde, the locations of which are approximately magnetically conjugate, have been theoretically calculated. The detected correction of the model input parameters makes it possible to coordinate the measured and calculated anomalous variations in the electron density NmF2 at the height hmF2 of the ionospheric F2 layer over Argentine Islands ionosonde as well as the calculated and measured values of NmF2 and electron temperature at the hmF2 height over Millstone Hill station. It has been shown that vibrationally excited N₂ and O₂ molecules almost do not influence the formation of the winter anomaly under the conditions of low solar activity. A difference between the influence of electronically excited O⁺ on N _e ions under winter and summer conditions forms not more than 11% of the N _e winter anomaly event in the F ₂ layer and topside ionosphere. The model without electronically excited O⁺ ions reduces the duration of the N _e winter anomaly event. It has been shown that the seasonal variations in the composition of the neutral atmosphere form mainly the NmF2 winter anomaly event over the Millstone Hill radar at low solar activity.     

Long-Term Trends in the Critical Frequency of the E-layer

A search for trends k(foE) in the critical frequency of the ionospheric E layer at Juliusruh and Slough stations is performed by the method often used by the authors to analyze trends in the F2-layer parameters. It is found that k(foE) could differ in both magnitude and even sign within different time intervals. However, the k(foE) trends have been stably negative over the last two decades for both stations and all months of the year. The k(foE) values averaged over a year are ?0.012 and ?0.005 MHz per year for Juliusruh and Slough stations, respectively. The method used in the recent paper by La?tovi?ka et al. (2016) to determine foE trends is analyzed, and it is shown that the difference in linear approximation of the dependence of the observed foE values on F10.7 within different time intervals could be interpreted not as the presence of a different foE dependence on the F10.7 index within these intervals but as the presence within them of foE trends that change the slope of the linear approximation.     

Manifestations of cyclic variations in the solar magnetic field in long-term modulation of cosmic rays

The possibilities of improving the semiempirical model of cosmic ray (CR) modulation, proposed by us previously, are discussed. The following characteristics have been considered as model parameters in order to describe long-period CR variations using a unified model and to more completely reflect solar cycles in CR modulation as a complex interaction between two systems of fields (large-scale and local): the value and sign of the polar solar field, the average strength of the solar magnetic field (the B _ss integral index), partial indices (zone-even (ZE) and zone-odd (ZO) and sector-even (SE) and sector-odd (SO) indices), the tilt of the heliospheric current sheet, and the special index (F _x ) taking into account X ray flares. The role of each index in CR modulation has been revealed. When we described the long-term CR variations using many parameters and taking into account the integral index or one of four partial indices, the best results of modulation modeling during 1976–1999 were obtained for the B _ss total energetic index and SO index. A difference between the model calculations and observations increases beginning from the middle of 2000; the problem features of the CR behavior and the specific features of modeling this behavior in cycle 23 of solar activity (SA) are discussed. It is assumed that a decrease in the CR density at the last SA minimums (from cycle to cycle) can be related to a decrease in the ZO index and to a recently detected similar decrease in the vertical component of the solar dipole magnetic moment.     

Studying the spread <Emphasis Type="Italic">F</Emphasis> effect before earthquakes

The observations of spread F during the nighttime hours (0000–0500 LT) have been statistically analyzed based on data of Tokyo, Akita, Wakkanai, and Yamagawa Japan vertical ionospheric sounding stations for the time intervals a month before and a month after an earthquake. The disturbances in the probability of spread F appearance before an earthquake are revealed against a background of the variations depending on season, solar activity cycle, geomagnetic and solar disturbances. The days with increased solar (Wolf number W > 100) and geomagnetic (ΣK > 30) activity are excluded from the analysis. The spread F effects are considered for more than a hundred earthquakes with magnitude M > 5 and epicenter depth h < 80 km at distances of R < 1000 km from epicenters to the vertical sounding station. An average decrease in the spread F occurrence probability one-two weeks before an earthquake has been revealed using the superposed epoch method (the probability was minimal approximately ten days before the event and then increased until the earthquake onset). Similar results are obtained for all four stations. The reliability of the effect has been estimated. The dependence of the detected effect on the magnitude and distance has been studied.     

Relation of long-period variations in the critical frequencies of the <Emphasis Type="Italic">F</Emphasis><Subscript>2</Subscript> layer to geomagnetic activity

The relation of the long-period variations in the midnight and noon values of the critical frequency of the ionospheric F ₂ layer at three midlatitude stations (Irkutsk, Moscow, and Boulder) to the daily mean index of geomagnetic activity in years of different solar activity has been studied. It has been found that the correlation coefficients between the above parameters depend on time of day, season, and solar activity level. The correlation coefficients are higher at night than in the daytime, especially at low solar activity. The highest absolute values of the correlation coefficient most often appear during equinoxes: April–May and September–October. It has been shown that the variability of the critical frequencies of the midlatitude ionospheric F ₂ layer depends not only on geomagnetic activity but also (to a considerable degree) on the effect of the lower atmosphere.     

Effect of Moon phases in riometer absorption and in the ionospheric and geomagnetic parameters

Variations in the frequency of occurrence of riometer absorption, minimum frequency of reflection of the ionospheric F layer, minimum height, and height of maximum electron density of the ionospheric F layer near the solar minimum have been studied. Application of the superposed epoch technique has detected the Moon phase effect on these ionospheric parameters. This effect was: three events per day in the occurrence of riometer absorption, 0.056 MHz in the minimum frequency of reflection of the F layer, and 2.6 and 6.7 km, in the change of the minimum height of reflection and height of reflection from the region with maximum electron density of the ionospheric F layer, respectively. The lunar tide action changes the ionospheric conductivity and, thus, influences the current systems of the magnetosphere. Through changes of magnetospheric currents, the Moon phase effect is exhibited in the Ap and Dst indices and is 4.3 and 4.25 nT, respectively.     

Long-term trends in the ratio of the daytime and nighttime values of <Emphasis Type="Italic">foF</Emphasis>2

The consideration of the relation between the daytime and nighttime values of the critical frequency F2, foF2 of the ionospheric F2 layer, started in the previous publication of the authors, is continued. The main regularities in variations in the correlation coefficient R(foF2) characterizing this relation are confirmed using larger statistical material (more ionospheric stations and longer observational series). Long-term trends in the R(foF2) value are found: at all stations the negative value of R(foF2) increases with time after 1980.     

Motion of Ionospheric Plasma: Results of Observations above Kharkiv in Solar Cycle 24

The equipment and methodical characteristics of determining the vertical component of the ionospheric plasma motion velocity V_z based on an incoherent scatter radar of Institute of Ionosphere, National Academy of Sciences and Ministry of Education and Science of Ukraine (Kharkiv), which is the only radar of such type in Central Europe, are described. Based on the radar data, the patterns of altitude and diurnal variations in V_z near the maximum of solar cycle 24 for the typical geophysical conditions (around the summer and winter solstices, the spring and fall equinoxes) at low geomagnetic activity and the specifics of these changes during ionospheric storms are presented. The results of modeling of the dynamic processes in ionospheric plasma under the conditions of the undisturbed ionosphere, including the determination of altitudetime variations in the thermospheric wind velocity, are presented. It has been established that this velocity can significantly differ from the thermospheric wind velocity calculated by the known empirical global models. This difference is likely related to the regional features of thermospheric wind that are not shown in the global models.     

Dynamics of the midlatitude ionospheric <Emphasis Type="Italic">F</Emphasis> region at sunrise

The behavior of the F2 layer at sunrise has been studied based on vertical-incidence ionospheric sounding data in Almaty (76°55′E, 43°15′N). Records with small amplitudes of electron density background fluctuations were selected in order to exactly estimate the onsets of a pronounced increase in the electron density at different altitudes. It has been indicated that the electron density growth rate is a function of altitude; in this case, the growth rate at the F2 layer maximum is much lower than such values at fixed altitudes of ～30–55 km below the layer maximum. The solar zenith angle (χ) and the blanketing layer thickness (h ₀) at the beginning of a pronounced increase in the electron density at altitude h are linearly related to the h value, and these quantities vary within ～90° < χ < 100° and 180 km < h ₀ < 260 km, respectively.     

Behavior of Parameters of Enhancements in the Nighttime Electron Concentration in the Ionospheric <Emphasis Type="Italic">F</Emphasis>2 Layer

We have analyzed the behavior of the F2 layer parameters during nighttime periods of enhanced electron concentration by the results of vertical sounding of the ionosphere carried out with five-minute periodicity in Almaty (76°55′ E, 43°15′ N) in 2001–2012. The results are obtained within the frameworks of the unified concept of different types of ionospheric plasma disturbances manifested as variations in the height and half-thickness of the layer accompanied by an increase and decrease of N _m F2 at the moments of maximum compression and expansion of the layer. A good correlation is found between height h _Am , which corresponds to the maximum increase, and layer peak height h _m F, while h _Am is always less than h _m F. The difference between h _Am and h _m F linearly increases with increasing h _m F. Whereas the difference is ~38 km for h _m F = 280 km, it is ~54 km for h _m F = 380 km. Additionally, the correlation is good between the increase in the electron concentration in the layer maximum ΔN _m and the maximum enhancement at the fixed height ΔN; the electron concentration enhancement in the layer maximum is about two to three times lower than its maximum enhancement at the fixed height.