Geological, geophysical and seismological criteria for local response evaluation in Bucharest urban area

Vrancea major intermediate-depth earthquakes produced extreme damage in Bucharest city, located at about 165 km epicenter distance. Our purpose is to investigate the influence of local geological conditions upon the seismic motion in Bucharest in case of large (M>7) Vrancea earthquakes. Two input data sets are used: (a) geological, geotechnical and geophysical information, including in situ measurements, and (b) acceleration recordings of Vrancea earthquakes. Local response evaluation based on first dataset is confirmed by the spectral analysis of the earthquake records. Two main features are outlined: non-stationarity of ground motion dynamic amplification from one event to other and inadequacy of limiting the investigation depth to uppermost 30 m to evaluate ground dynamic characteristics. Consequently (1) we cannot extrapolate the ground motion response determined for moderate and small earthquakes to anticipate the effects of the large Vrancea shocks and (2) the local response is controlled by the entire package of Quaternary deposits which are significantly deeper than 30 m depth beneath Bucharest Area.     

Advanced real-time acquisition of the Vrancea earthquake early warning system

The Vrancea seismogenic zone in Romania represents a peculiar source of seismic hazard, which is a major concern in Europe, especially to neighboring regions of Bulgaria, Serbia and Republic of Moldavia. Earthquakes in the Carpathian–Pannonian region are confined to the crust, except the Vrancea zone, where earthquakes with focal depth down to 200 km occur. One of the cities most affected by earthquakes in Europe is Bucharest. Situated at 140–170 km distance from Vrancea epicenter zone, Bucharest encountered many damages due to high energy Vrancea intermediate-depth earthquakes; the March 4, 1977 event (M_w=7.2) produced the collapse of 36 buildings with 8–12 levels, while more than 150 old buildings were seriously damaged. A dedicated set of applications and a method to rapidly estimate magnitude in 4–5 s from detection of P wave in the epicenter were developed. They were tested on all recorded data. The magnitude error for 77.9% of total considered events is in the interval [−0.3, +0.3] magnitude units. This is acceptable taking into account that the magnitude is computed from only 3 stations in a 5 s time interval (1 s delay is caused by data packing). The ability to rapidly estimate the earthquake magnitude combined with powerful real-time software, as parts of an early warning system, allows us to send earthquake warning to Bucharest in real time, in about 5 s after detection in the epicenter. This allows 20–27 s warning time to automatically issue preventive actions at the warned facility.     

Improved seismic risk estimation for Bucharest,based on multiple hazard scenarios and analytical methods

Bucharest, capital of Romania, is one of the most exposed big cities in Europe to seismic damage, due to the intermediate-depth earthquakes in the Vrancea region, to the vulnerable building stock and local soil conditions.This paper tries to answer very important questions related to the seismic risk at city scale that were not yet adequately answered. First, we analyze and highlight the bottlenecks of previous risk-related studies. Based on new researches in the hazard of Bucharest (recent microzonation map and ground-motion prediction equations, reprocessed real recorded data) and in vulnerability assessment (analytical methods, earthquake loss estimation software like SELENA and ELER, the recently implemented Near Real-Time System for Estimating the Seismic Damage in Romania) we provide an improved estimation of the number of buildings and population that could be affected, for different earthquake scenarios. A new method for enhancing the spatial resolution of the building stock data is used successfully.     

Microzonation of Bucharest: State-of-the-Art

— The 1940 (M_w=7.7) and 1977 (M_w=7.4) Vrancea earthquakes (Romania) inflicted heavy damage and casualties in Bucharest and the statistics indicate a recurrence interval of 25 years for M_w 7.0 events. Under these circumstances, the seismic microzonation represents important information for detailed urban planning that establishes an appropriate level of preparedness to the earthquake threat. This paper reviews the main studies concerning the seismicity of the Vrancea region, the site conditions of the city, the characterization of the building stock, and the codes of practice that regulate the antiseismic design. The first-order microzonation of Bucharest was performed starting from the existing database of structural and geotechnical parameters. New insights originating from direct instrumental observation and interpretation of the local effects as well as realistic numerical modeling that update and improve the input data necessary for a detailed microzoning map of the city are also discussed.     

Vrancea Source Influence on Local Seismic Response in Bucharest

—?The mapping of the seismic ground motion in Bucharest, due to the strong Vrancea earthquakes, is carried out using a complex hybrid waveform modeling method that allows easy parametric tests. Starting from the actually available strong motion database, we can make realistic predictions for the possible ground motion. The basic information necessary for the modeling consists of: (a) The representative mechanisms for the strong subcrustal events, (b) the average regional structural model, and (c) the local structure for Bucharest. Two scenario earthquakes are considered and the source influence on the local response is analyzed in order to define generally valid ground motion parameters, to be used in the seismic hazard estimations. The source has its own (detectable) contribution on the ground motion and its effects on the local response in Bucharest are quite stable on the transversal component (T), while the radial (R) and vertical (V) components are sensitive to the scenario earthquake. Although the strongest local effects affect the T component, both observed and synthetic, a complete determination of the seismic input for the built environment requires the knowledge of all three components of motion (R, V, T). The damage observed in Bucharest for the March 4, 1977 Vrancea event, the strongest earthquake to strike the city in modern times, is in agreement with the synthetic signals and local response.     

A uniform approach to seismic site effect analysis in Bucharest, Romania

As a uniform approach to the assessment of ground motion variation within the Romanian capital Bucharest we analyze and compare strong motion records from analog recorders, weak motion data from a modern digital accelerometer network, and intensity observations of previous strong earthquakes. These different data sets allow to clearly characterize geographical trends in the distribution of ground shaking in the city for future earthquakes. Below 2 Hz the variability is small. Between 2 and 5 Hz, however, variations by a factor of 3–4 have to be expected. As the key source for the seismic hazard—the intermediate depth Vrancea earthquakes—remain at hypocentral distances in excess of 150 km from the city the ground motion variation must be predominantly attributed to site effects. This geometry of Vrancea sources to the site of Bucharest is ideal for the application of source-site separation techniques. However, despite this fact site effect amplification functions display a very large amount of aleatory uncertainty. In other words the standard source-site parameterization is too simple and we do not yet fully understand the cause and size of site effects.     

Ground-motion prediction equations for the intermediate depth Vrancea (Romania) earthquakes

We present the regional ground-motion prediction equations for peak ground acceleration (PGA), peak ground velocity (PGV), pseudo-spectral acceleration (PSA), and seismic intensity (MSK scale) for the Vrancea intermediate depth earthquakes (SE-Carpathians) and territory of Romania. The prediction equations were constructed using the stochastic technique on the basis of the regional Fourier amplitude spectrum (FAS) source scaling and attenuation models and the generalised site amplification functions. Values of considered ground motion parameters are given as the functions of earthquake magnitude, depth and epicentral distance. The developed ground-motion models were tested and calibrated using the available data from the large Vrancea earthquakes. We suggest to use the presented equations for the rapid estimation of seismic effect after strong earthquakes (Shakemap generation) and seismic hazard assessment, both deterministic and probabilistic approaches.     

Accounting for site effect in probabilistic assessment of seismic hazard for Romania and Bucharest: a case of deep seismicity in Vrancea zone

The paper presents recent achievements in evaluations of site-dependent seismic hazard in Romania and the capital city of Bucharest caused by the Vrancea focal zone (SE-Carpathians). The zone is characterized by a high rate of occurrence of large earthquakes in a narrow focal volume at depths 60–170 km. The database that was used for the hazard evaluation includes parameters of seismicity, ground-motion source scaling and attenuation models (Fourier amplitude spectra), and site-dependent spectral amplification functions. Ground-motion characteristics were evaluated on the basis of several hundred records from more than 120 small magnitude (M 3.5–5) earthquakes occurred in 1996–2001 and a few tens of acceleration records obtained during four large (M 7.4, 7.2, 6.9 and 6.3) earthquakes. The data provide a basis for probabilistic seismic hazard assessment in terms of peak ground acceleration, peak spectral acceleration and MSK intensity using Fourier amplitude spectra for various exceedance probabilities or average return periods. It has been shown that the influence of geological factors plays very important role in distribution of earthquake ground-motion parameters along the territory of Romania.     

A macroseismic intensity prediction equation for intermediate depth earthquakes in the Vrancea region,Romania

The use of shake maps in terms of macroseismic intensity in earthquake early warning systems as well as intensity based seismic hazard assessments provides a valuable supplement to typical studies based on recorded ground motion parameters. A requirement for such applications is ground motion prediction equations (GMPE) in terms of macroseismic intensity, which have the advantages of good data availability and the direct relation of intensity to earthquake damage. In the current study, we derive intensity prediction equations for the Vrancea region in Romania, which is characterized by the frequent occurrence of large intermediate depth earthquakes giving rise to a peculiar anisotropic ground shaking distribution. The GMPE have a physical basis and take the anisotropic intensity distribution into account through an empirical regional correction function. Furthermore, the relations are easy to implement for the user. Relations are derived in terms of epicentral, rupture and Joyner–Boore distance and the obtained relations all provide a new intensity estimate with an uncertainty of ca. 0.6 intensity units.     

Deterministic Approach for the Seismic Microzonation of Bucharest

— The mapping of the seismic ground motion in Bucharest, due to the strong Vrancea earthquakes is carried out using a complex hybrid waveform modeling method which combines the modal summation technique, valid for laterally homogeneous anelastic media, with finite-differences technique, and optimizes the advantages of both methods. For recent earthquakes, it is possible to validate the modeling by comparing the synthetic seismograms with the records. We consider for our computations the frequency range from 0.05 to 1.0 Hz and control the synthetic signals against the accelerograms of the Magurele station, low-pass filtered with a cut-off frequency of 1.0 Hz of the 3 last major strong (M_w > 6) Vrancea earthquakes. Using the hybrid method with a double-couple seismic source approximation, scaled for the source dimensions and relatively simple regional (bedrock) and local structure models, we succeeded in reproducing the recorded ground motion in Bucharest at a satisfactory level for seismic engineering. Extending the modeling to the entire territory of the Bucharest area, we construct a new seismic microzonation map, where five different zones are identified by their characteristic response spectra.     

Dynamic properties of the Quaternary sedimentary rocks and their influence on seismic site effects. Case study in Bucharest City,Romania

Bucharest is one of the cities most affected by earthquakes in Europe. Situated at 150–170 km distance from Vrancea epicentral zone, Bucharest had suffered many damages due to high energy Vrancea intermediate-depth earthquakes. For example, the 4 March 1977 event produced the collapse of 32 buildings with 8–12 levels, while more than 150 old buildings with 6–9 levels were seriously damaged. The studies done after this earthquake had shown the importance of the surface geological structure upon ground motion parameters. New seismic measurements are performed in Bucharest area aiming at defining better elastic and dynamic properties of the shallow sedimentary rocks. Down-hole seismic measurements were performed in a number of 10 cased boreholes drilled in the Bucharest City area. Processing and interpretation of the data lead to the conclusion that shallow sedimentary rocks can be considered weak in the area, down to 150–200 m depth. Seismic wave velocity values and bulk density values presented in the paper associated with local geology are useful primary data in the seismic microzonation of Bucharest City. They are used as 1D models to derive transfer functions and response spectra for the stack of sedimentary rocks in several parts of Bucharest area, leading to a better knowledge of the local site amplification and associated frequency spectra. In a recent study the H/V spectral ratio using Nakamura’s method was applied on the seismic noise measurements in 22 sites in Bucharest City in order to derive the fundamental period associated with these sites. The values confirm the previous results, showing a dominant resonance in the period range of 1.25–1.75 s. The fundamental periods obtained with Nakamura’s method are in good agreement with those computed on the basis of geological and geotechnical data in boreholes, which show an increase of the fundamental period in the Bucharest area from south to north, in the same direction as the increase of the thickness of the Quaternary deposits above the Fratesti layer which is considered the bedrock in the area.     

甘肃省阿克塞5.5级地震震害调查与启示

2021年8月26日甘肃省酒泉市阿克塞哈萨克族自治县（38.88°N, 95.50°E）发生5.5级地震,震源深度15 km,震中烈度为Ⅶ度,震区总面积为1 352 km2,距震中30 km处存在烈度异常点。本次地震震害较轻,未造成人员伤亡,经济损失较轻。本文从地震应急响应、现场震害调查、建筑物破坏情况调研、烈度评定、灾害损失评估等方面对本次地震震害特点进行分析总结,对造成震害的致灾因素进行深入分析,得出震害经验和相应的防震减灾启示,以便本地区查找防震减灾不利因素,进而采取属地化措施,尽可能减轻未来地震灾害损失。     

Damage Potential of the 1999 Athens, Greece, Accelerograms

Athens experienced a devastating earthquake on September 7, 1999, centred about 10km beneath the outskirts of the city, with peak accelerations in the meizoseismal area estimated above 0.5 g. While the magnitude of the earthquake was moderate (M_S=5.9), damage and loss of life were extensive, numbering over 143 fatalities, 90 collapsed buildings, and over 100,000 rendered homeless. The most severe losses took place within 8 km of the fault, and peak rock accelerations in excess of 0.35 g were recorded 12 km from fault in downtown Athens. Local geologic effects played an important role, as demonstrated by concentrations of building damage on pockets of soft soil and near river canyons in the northwest part of the city. The earthquake was the first to severely damage Athens in over 2500 years. This study examines the engineering characteristics of 12 triaxial strong motion accelerograms recorded during the main shock. Properties investigated include peak ground acceleration and velocity, bracketed duration, Housner intensity, and response spectra. Spectral values at different orientations in the horizontal plane (“planar spectra”) are computed to infer the interaction of source directivity effects and building period, on damage potential. The role of rupture directivity close to the fault is investigated by means of idealized triangular pulses. Inelastic effects are examined using ductility spectra and sliding block analyses. Evidence is presented that low-rise structures in the area may have higher strength and longer natural period than those anticipated by building codes. The implications of the damage potential calculations for earthquake hazard assessment in Eastern North America and Northern Europe are also addressed. This revised version was published online in July 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

台湾9.21集集地震考察兼论强震发震断层

1999年9月21日,台湾中部山麓带发生了M7.3的大地震,震源深度为8km,财产损失及人员伤亡是百年来台湾许多地震中损失及伤亡最大的1次,其震级也是台湾本岛陆上所发生的地震级别最大的。震源机制属低角度逆冲断层成因,余震在平面上围绕着北港高基底作半圆状分布,在垂向上,则分布在逆冲断层的上盘。与此相应,地面变形及上部结构物的破坏,以车笼埔发震断层上盘最为激烈,下盘几乎不受影响。此外,地震断裂的北端,水平位移量高达9.8m,垂直抬升达10m,比主震区要大;其地面加速度峰值,亦高达水平为502gal,垂直为519gal。这些特点表明,地震是受到地下深处侏罗型叠瓦状构造的控制。此外,3个诱发地震中心均受当地的地质构造与地貌条件的控制。文中还叙述了震害及工程结构物破坏的特点,尤其是水工结构物的震害     

Probabilistic seismic hazard assessment for Romania and sensitivity analysis: A case of joint consideration of intermediate-depth (Vrancea) and shallow (crustal) seismicity

The earthquake risk on Romania is one of the highest in Europe, and seismic hazard for almost half of the territory of Romania is determined by the Vrancea seismic region, which is situated beneath the southern Carpathian Arc. The region is characterized by a high rate of occurrence of large earthquakes in a narrow focal volume at depth from 70 to 160 km. Besides the Vrancea area, several zones of shallow seismicity located within and outside the Romanian territory are considered as seismically dangerous. We present the results of probabilistic seismic hazard analysis, which implemented the “logic tree” approach, and which considered both the intermediate-depth and the shallow seismicity. Various available models of seismicity and ground-motion attenuation were used as the alternative variants. Seismic hazard in terms of macroseismic intensities, peak ground acceleration, and response spectra was evaluated for various return periods. Sensitivity study was performed to analyze the impact of variation of input parameters on the hazard results. The uncertainty on hazard estimates may be reduced by better understanding of parameters of the Vrancea source zone and the zones of crustal seismicity. Reduction of uncertainty associated with the ground-motion models is also very important issue for Romania.     

Macroseismic field of the October 27, 2004 Vrancea (Romania) moderate subcrustal earthquake

On October 27, 2004, a moderate size earthquake occurred in the Vrancea seismogenic region (Romania). The Vrancea seismic zone is an area of concentrated seismicity at intermediate depths beneath the bending area of the southeastern Carpathians. The 2004 M _w?=?6 Vrancea subcrustal earthquake is the largest seismic event recorded in Romania since the 1990 earthquakes. With a maximum macroseismic intensity of VII Medvedev–Sponheuer–Kárník (MSK-64) scale, the seismic event was felt to a distance of 600 km from the epicentre. This earthquake caused no serious damage and human injuries. The main purpose of this paper is to present the macroseismic map of the earthquake based on the MSK-64 intensity scale. After the evaluation of the macroseismic effects of this earthquake, an intensity dataset has been obtained for 475 sites in the Romanian territory. Also, the maximum horizontal accelerations recorded in the area by the K2 network are compared to the intensity values.     

Spatial damage distribution of August 16, 2003, Inner Mongolia, China, M S=5.9 earthquake and analysis

The spatial damage distribution of August 16, 2003, Inner Mongolia, China, M _S=5.9 earthquake is summarized through field investigation. The moment tensor solution and focal mechanism are inverted using the digital long-period waveform records of China Digital Seismograph Network (CDSN). The relation between the spatial damage distribution and focal mechanism is analyzed according to the focal mechanism, the aftershock distribution and the spatial damage distribution. The possible relation between the characteristics of ground motion and the tectonic background of the source region is discussed in terms of the global ground motion records, historical earthquake documents and the damage distribution. Investigation reveals that the meizoseismal region is in east-west direction, which is consistent with the nodal plane of focal mechanism inversion. The meizoseismal area is relatively large and the damage of single-story adobe houses or masonry houses is more severe. This may have relations with local seismotectonic environment. Foundation item: The Special Funds for Major State Basic Research Project (2002CB412706). Contribution No. 05FE3009, Institute of Geophysics, China Earthquake Administration.     

Acceleration Time Histories for a Scenario Earthquake in Moscow at Sites with Different Soil Conditions

According to general seismic zoning maps, Moscow is in an area with a seismic intensity of 5, in which the maximum seismic effect is expected from remote deep-focal earthquakes in the Vrancea zone (Eastern Carpathians, Romania). In our previous studies, an earthquake with a hypocenter at a depth of 80–150 km in the Vrancea zone, a moment magnitude of M_w = 8.0, and a drop in stress of Δσ = 325 bar was used as a scenario earthquake for Moscow. A series of model acceleration time histories for ground vibrations was calculated for this earthquake for the reference local conditions of the Moskva seismic station (Moscow, Pyzhevskii per. 3). In this paper, these acceleration time histories are used to calculate the acceleration time histories and estimate the ground vibration parameters for an scenario earthquake at other sites on the territory of Moscow for which information on soil conditions is available. Since the epicentral distance is large (~1300 km), it can be assumed that changes in the shape and spectral content of the acceleration time histories at different sites in Moscow are only caused by different local conditions.     

Investigation on the stochastic simulation of strong ground motions for Bucharest area

This short article evaluates the stochastic method of ground motion simulation for Bucharest area using both the single-corner frequency model and recently introduced double-corner frequency models. A dedicated Q model is derived using ground motions obtained during the largest Vrancea earthquakes from the past 30 years. The simulated ground motions are tested against the observed data from the Vrancea earthquakes of August 1986 and May 1990. Moreover, the observed data are also compared against simulations obtained using the Q model derived by Oth et al. (2008). Finally, the results of the simulations show that the derived Q model is better suited for larger magnitude events, while the Q model of Oth et al. (2008) provides better results for smaller earthquakes.     

Attenuation of seismic waves from moderate earthquakes of the Vrancea zone

The paper presents results of studying the attenuation of ground accelerations from earthquakes of the Vrancea with magnitudes less that 6.0 at distance greater than 300 km in a narrow sector located northeast of the focal region, within the limits of which are located acting and planned nuclear power plants (NNPs). Attenuation of peak ground accelerations in individual sections along the Vrancea–IRIS OBN station path is approximated by individual functions. It is shown that for a rough estimation of the seismic effect of earthquakes from the Vrancea zone it is acceptable to use the empirical relationship obtained by F.F. Aptikaev. For a more accurate estimate, it needs to be modified by adding a constant, whose value depends on the specific conditions of the NPP sites. It is shown that the results of data analysis on moderate earthquakes can be extrapolated to an earthquake with the maximum possible magnitude for the Vrancea zone and used to estimate the maximum seismic effects at the sites of operating and planned NPPs.