Paleoecology and high-resolution paleohydrology of a kettle peatland in upper Michigan

We investigated the developmental and hydrological history of a Sphagnum-dominated, kettle peatland in Upper Michigan using testate amoebae, plant macrofossils, and pollen. Our primary objective was to determine if the paleohydrological record of the peatland represents a record of past climate variability at subcentennial to millennial time scales. To assess the role of millennial-scale climate variability on peatland paleohydrology, we compared the timing of peatland and upland vegetation changes. To investigate the role of higher-frequency climate variability on peatland paleohydrology, we used testate amoebae to reconstruct a high-resolution, hydrologic history of the peatland for the past 5100 years, and compared this record to other regional records of paleoclimate and vegetation. Comparisons revealed coherent patterns of hydrological, vegetational, and climatic changes, suggesting that peatland paleohydrology responded to climate variability at millennial to sub-centennial time scales. Although ombrotrophic peatlands have been the focus of most high-resolution peatland paleoclimate research, paleohydrological records from Sphagnum-dominated, closed-basin peatlands record high-frequency and low-magnitude climatic changes and thus represent a significant source of unexplored paleoclimate data.     

Variability of Hell and hydrogen line profiles in the spectrum of HD 93521

We have studied the variability of the Hell λλ 4686 and 5411 Å Hβ, and Hα lines in the spectrum of the pulsating star HD 93521. All these line profiles display the same variability pattern relative to the average profiles: a sinusoidal wave that moves systematically from the short-to the long-wavelength wing of the profile. This variability is due to non-radial pulsations. To study the pulsation movements and stratification of the radial velocity in the atmosphere of HD 93521, we analyzed the variability of the radial velocities measured individually for the blue and red halves of the absorption profile at the half-level of the line intensity. The periods and amplitudes of this radial-velocity variability are different for different lines and are well correlated with their central depths. In the transition from weak to strong lines (i.e., from lower to upper layers of the atmosphere), the period of the radial-velocity variations measured using both halves of the absorption profile increases, while its amplitude decreases. When the morphology and variability of photospheric and wind-driven lines are compared, it is clear that the variability of their absorption components is due to the same process—non-radial pulsations. In this way, the non-radial pulsations partly affect the variability of the stellar wind. The effect of the stellar wind on the profiles of strong lines is observed as a variable absorption feature that moves along the profiles synchronous with the axial rotation of the star.     

An index to represent lateral variation of the confidence of experts in a 3-D geological model

A Confidence Index is proposed that expresses the confidence of experts in the quality of a 3-D model as a representation of the subsurface at particular locations. The Confidence Index is based on the notion that the variation of the height of a particular geological surface represents general geological variability and local variability. The general variability comprises simple trends which allow the modeller to project surface structure at locations remote from direct observations. The local variability limits the extent to which borehole observations constrain inferences which the modeller can make concerning local fluctuations around the broad trends. The general and local geological variability of particular contacts are modelled in terms of simple trend surfaces and variogram models. These are then used to extend measures of confidence that reflect expert opinion so as to assign a confidence value to any location where a particular contact is represented in a model. The index is illustrated with an example from the East Midlands region of the United Kingdom.     

Macroinfaunal assemblages associated with mussel and clam beds in an estuary of Southern Chile

Samples were collected from September 1990 to February 1992, at three subtidal sites of the middle reaches of the Queule River estuary, southern Chile, to analyze the spatial and temporal variability of the macroinfauna inhabiting substrata with different abundances of bivalves. In addition, water and sediment samples were obtained to study the relationships between the temporal variability in macroinfaunal abundances, physical factors and chlorophylla content. Temperature, salinity, and chlorophylla showed a rather strong seasonal variability but slight between-site differences. Sediment characteristics and bivalve abundances, by contrast, exhibited little temporal variability but large differences between sites. The macroinfauna was primarily represented by polychaetesPrionospio (Minuspio) patagonica being dominant in the three areas. Most dominant species showed similar trends of temporal variability, with maximum abundances recorded during spring and fall. The appearance of recruits was restricted to the summer with little difference among sites. Multiple regression analyses showed that the temporal variability of macroinfaunal adults and recruits, was primarily associated with variability in salinity and water temperature, respectively. Spatial variability of these organisms was also explained by variations in these factors, together with those of sediment texture and organic matter content. No evidence of interactions (significant relationships) was found between the abundances of bivalves and those of the macroinfauna, nor among macroinfaunal organisms.     

The Seyfert 1 galaxy Ark 120 in 1996–2005. Temporal characteristics of the optical variability

We study the optical variability of the Seyfert galaxy Ark 120 using the autocorrelation and structure functions, as well as a periodogram analysis, based on our 1996–2005 U BV RI observations. The autocorrelation function indicates an increase in the correlation to 70% for time shifts of about 430 days. The structure function displays a decrease for these same time shifts, which is interpreted as evidence for periodic events on these timescales. The structure function indicates an increase in the variability amplitude with increasing duration of the variable process. On large time scales, the structure function can be presented as a power-law function with index 0.8–0.9, possibly indicating the presence of unstable processes in the accretion disk. Our search for periodicity in the light curves has revealed a possible period P = 430 days, which has been observed during 13 cycles, as follows from an analysis using continuum from spectral data obtained from 1988 to 2005.     

Spots on the surfaces of late-type stars

The spottedness of two stars characterized by significant photometric variability is studied using published data: the recently discovered variable ASAS 063656-0521.0, whose V variability reaches 0.8 ^m , and XXTri (HD12545), which is among the most active RSCVn stars (in 1997–1998, the amplitude of its V variability was 0.63 ^m ). The spots cover up to 44% of the total visible surface S of ASAS 063656-0521.0. The mean estimated spottedness of XX Tri was 32%, and varied from29% to 36%. An analysis of the dependence of the spottedness on the properties of spotted stars, primarily their effective temperatures, is also presented. A modification of a simplifiedmethod for estimating the spottedness S, i.e., the fractional surface area of the spots, is applied to a sample of 48 late-type stars. The dependences of the spottedness on the effective temperature of the stars and the rotational velocity projected onto the line of sight are derived. Two groups of objects can be distinguished. The first contains stars displaying the typical dependence of S on the effective temperature (their maximum value of S is 20–25% for stars with temperatures 4500–5000 K, and S decreases for solar-type stars and cool M dwarfs). The second group is formed of the most active stars, which have temperatures of 3700–5200 K and S values from 25% to 50%. Our preliminary conclusion is that spottedness is not related to the period of the stellar rotation. The previously studied variable V410 Tau is used to consider the shortcomings of the method applied compared to the results of light-curve modeling.     

Microvariability of line profiles in the spectra of OB stars: δOri A

We have studied variability of the spectral lines of the OB star δOri A—the brightest component of the δOri triple system. Forty spectra with signal-to-noise ratios ≈500–800 and a time resolution of four minutes were obtained. We detected variability in the HeIIλ4686, HeIλ4713, and Hβ absorption and the CIIIλ5696 emission profiles. The amplitude of the variability is ≈(0.5–1)% of the continuum intensity. The dynamical wavelet spectrum of the profile variations reveals large-scale components in the interval 25–50 km/s that move within the-V sin i to V sin i band for the primary star of the system, Aa¹, with a band crossing time of 4^h–5^h. However, some of the variable features go outside the band, presumably due to either imhomogeneities in the stellar wind from δOri Aa¹ or nonradial pulsations of the weaker components of the system, Aa² or Ab. The detected variability may be cyclic with a period of ≈4^h. We suggest that it is associated with nonradial pulsations of the primary in the sector mode (l,m) = (2, ?2).     

Patterns and Scales of Phytoplankton Variability in Estuarine–Coastal Ecosystems

Phytoplankton variability is a primary driver of chemical and biological dynamics in the coastal zone because it directly affects water quality, biogeochemical cycling of reactive elements, and food supply to consumer organisms. Much has been learned about patterns of phytoplankton variability within individual ecosystems, but patterns have not been compared across the diversity of ecosystem types where marine waters are influenced by connectivity to land. We extracted patterns from chlorophyll-a series measured at 84 estuarine–coastal sites, using a model that decomposes time series into an annual effect, mean seasonal pattern, and residual “events.” Comparisons across sites revealed a large range of variability patterns, with some dominated by a recurrent seasonal pattern, others dominated by annual (i.e., year-to-year) variability as trends or regime shifts and others dominated by the residual component, which includes exceptional bloom events such as red tides. Why is the partitioning of phytoplankton variability at these three scales so diverse? We propose a hypothesis to guide next steps of comparative analysis: large year-to-year variability is a response to disturbance from human activities or shifts in the climate system; strong seasonal patterns develop where the governing processes are linked to the annual climate cycle; and large event-scale variability occurs at sites highly enriched with nutrients. Patterns of phytoplankton variability are therefore shaped by the site-specific relative importance of disturbance, annual climatology, and nutrient enrichment.     

Undrained stability of a single circular tunnel in spatially variable soil subjected to surcharge loading

The stability of tunnels is an important problem in geotechnical engineering. Most of the previous studies dealing with the stability of unlined tunnels are deterministic in nature and do not consider the soil spatial variability. This study investigates the influence of spatial variability on the undrained stability of an unlined circular tunnel, using Random Adaptive Finite Element Limit Analysis (RAFELA). The effect of spatial variability is investigated for tunnels having two different ratios of γD/c_u, for different spatial correlation lengths and tunnel depths. The results indicate that the effect of spatial variability depends on γD/c_u and the depth of the tunnel.     

A speleothem record of Younger Dryas cooling, Klamath Mountains, Oregon, USA

A well-dated δ¹⁸O record in a stalagmite from a cave in the Klamath Mountains, Oregon, with a sampling interval of 50 yr, indicates that the climate of this region cooled essentially synchronously with Younger Dryas climate change elsewhere in the Northern Hemisphere. The δ¹⁸O record also indicates significant century-scale temperature variability during the early Holocene. The δ¹³C record suggests increasing biomass over the cave through the last deglaciation, with century-scale variability but with little detectable response of vegetation to Younger Dryas cooling.     

Annual precipitation in the Yellowstone National Park region since AD 1173

Cores and cross sections from 133 limber pine (Pinus flexilis James) and Douglas fir (Pseudotsuga menziesii (Mirbel) Franco) at four sites were used to estimate annual (July to June) precipitation in the Yellowstone National Park region for the period from AD 1173 to 1998. Examination of the long-term record shows that the early 20th century was markedly wet compared to the previous 700 yr. Extreme wet and dry years within the instrumental period fall within the range of past variability, and the magnitude of the worst-case droughts of the 20th century (AD 1930s and 1950s) was likely equaled or exceeded on numerous occasions before AD 1900. Spectral analysis showed significant decadal to multidecadal precipitation variability. At times this lower frequency variability produces strong regime-like behavior in regional precipitation, with the potential for rapid, high-amplitude switching between predominately wet and predominately dry conditions. Over multiple time scales, strong Yellowstone region precipitation anomalies were almost always associated with spatially extensive events spanning various combinations of the central and southern U.S. Rockies, the northern U.S.-Southern Canadian Rockies and the Pacific Northwest.     

Spatio-temporal Variability in Larval-Stage Feeding and Nutritional Sources as Factors Influencing Striped Bass (Morone saxatilis) Recruitment Success

Prey availability and feeding success affect survival of larval striped bass (Morone saxatilis) in Chesapeake Bay and contribute to the >30-fold interannual recruitment variability. Gut contents and stable isotope analyses (δ¹⁵N and δ¹³C) were conducted on striped bass larvae to evaluate sources of nutrition in 2007 and 2008, years of high and poor recruitment, respectively. Ichthyoplankton and zooplankton were surveyed in the upper Chesapeake Bay, in proximity to the estuarine turbidity maximum and associated salt front. Feeding incidence and numbers of prey per gut were similar in both years and varied in relation to the salt front. The primary prey in each year was the estuarine copepod Eurytemora affinis. Substantial consumption of the freshwater cladoceran Bosmina spp. also occurred, especially up-estuary of the salt front in 2007, demonstrating that secondary prey are important to larval diets in some years. Stable isotope analysis of yolk sac and feeding-stage larvae of striped bass revealed an ontogenetic shift from maternal stable isotope signatures to those indicative of prey source. Feeding-stage larvae from up-estuary locations had the most negative δ¹³C values, indicating a relatively high terrestrial carbon source in prey. Spatio-temporal variability in δ¹⁵N signatures of larvae followed similar trends of δ¹⁵N variability in zooplankton prey with the highest δ¹⁵N values up-estuary of the salt front and estuarine turbidity maximum. A stable isotope analysis on archived striped bass larvae collected in 1998 and 2003, years of moderate and high recruitment, respectively, expanded the documented range of isotope signatures but did not clearly distinguish effects of nutritional sources on recruitment.     

Flux-density variability of the blazar S5 1803+784 (J1800+7828) on a timescale of a month

The variability of the blazar S5 1803+784 (J1800+7828) on a timescale of a month is analyzed using daily RATAN-600 observations in 2009 (a total of 154 observations) at five frequences from 2.3 to 21.7 GHz. Cyclic variability of the flux density was detected at 7.7, 11.1, and 21.7 GHz on a timescale of 34–35 days, with modulation indices of 2.1, 3.6, and 6.6%, respectively. Characteristic time scales are derived from the light curves and the structure and autocorrelation functions. The spectrum of the variable component is rising, with spectral index α ≈ 1.3. The delays of the light-curve maxima between 21.7–11.1 and 11.1–7.7 GHz are three to four days. The integrated spectra for different light-curve phases indicate that the maximum shifts toward lower frequencies as the flux density passes through the maximum. Our results suggest that the variability can be explained mainly by non-stationary processes in the radio source itself, due to the propagation of shocks in the jet.     

Risk de-aggregation and system reliability analysis of slope stability using representative slip surfaces

This paper develops a risk de-aggregation and system reliability approach to evaluate the slope failure probability, p_f, using representative slip surfaces together with MCS. An efficient procedure is developed to strategically select the candidate representative slip surfaces, and a risk de-aggregation approach is proposed to quantify contribution of each candidate representative slip surface to the p_f, identify the representative slip surfaces, and determine how many representative slip surfaces are needed for estimating the p_f with reasonable accuracy. Risk de-aggregation is performed by collecting the failure samples generated in MCS and analyzing them statistically. The proposed methodology is illustrated through a cohesive soil slope example and validated against results from previous studies. When compared with the previous studies, the proposed approach substantially improves the computational efficiency in probabilistic slope stability analysis. The proposed approach is used to explore the effect of spatial variability on the p_f. It is found that, when spatial variability is ignored or perfect correlation assumed, the p_f of the whole slope system can be solely attributed to a single representative slip surface. In this case, it is theoretically appropriate to use only one slip surface in the reliability analysis. As the spatial variability becomes growingly significant, the number of representative slip surfaces increases, and all representative slip surfaces (i.e., failure modes) contribute more equally to the overall system risk. The variation of failure modes has substantial effect on the p_f, and all representative surfaces have to be incorporated properly in the reliability analysis. The risk de-aggregation and system reliability approach developed in this paper provides a practical and efficient means to incorporate such a variation of failure modes in probabilistic slope stability analysis.     

Uncertainty of rainfall-induced landslides considering spatial variability of parameters

A cross-correlation analysis is conducted to determine the impacts of the heterogeneity of hydraulic conductivity K_s, soil cohesion c′ and soil friction angle (tan φ′) on the uncertainty of slope stability in time and space during rainfall. We find the relative importance of tan φ′ and c′ depends on the effective stress. While the sensitivity of the stability to the variability of K_s is small, the large coefficient of variation of K_s may exacerbate the variability of pore-water pressure. Therefore, characterizing the heterogeneity of hydraulic properties and pore-water distribution in the field is critical to the stability analysis.     

Variability in fault size scaling due to rock strength heterogeneity: a finite element investigation

Practical application of fault size scaling relationships usually involves extrapolation of a limited data set over a scale range beyond that observed or into adjacent unstudied areas. Here we investigate the validity of such extrapolations by considering the variability in the size–frequency distributions of fault populations that develop under identical tectonic conditions using a numerical model to generate conjugate, normal fault populations in cross-section. The deforming material is modelled using a strain-softening, Von Mises rheology with Gaussian heterogeneity in yield strength distributed randomly throughout the mesh. We present eight deformation experiments that differ only in the random spatial pattern of yield strengths. We observe power law size–frequency scaling, i.e. N=ax^−c (where N is the cumulative number of faults and x is a measure of fault size) but with a range of values of c. The ensemble average value of c decreases with increasing percentage extension. However, for individual model runs the dependence of c on total strain shows significant variability that we can relate to small but important differences in fault growth and strain localisation. At any particular strain, the range of values of c is ∼10 times greater than the error estimate derived from least squares regression of the cumulative frequency data. Our results suggest therefore that large uncertainties should be associated with extrapolating fault population data from one scale or region to another even if the lithology and tectonic history are similar.     

Gaseous mercury emissions from urban surfaces: Controls and spatiotemporal trends

The spatial and temporal variability of Hg emissions from urban paved surfaces was assessed through repeated measurements under varying environmental conditions at six sample sites in Toronto, Ontario, Canada. The results show significant spatial variability of the Hg emissions with median values ranging from below detection limit to 5.2 ng/m²/h. Two of the sites consistently had higher Hg emissions (on several occasions >20 ng/m²/h) than the other 4, which were equivalently low (maximum emission: 2.1 ng/m²/h). A surrogate measure of the pavement Hg concentrations was obtained during each day of sampling through the collection of street dust. The median street dust concentration also showed significant spatial variability (ranging from 9.6 to 44.5 ng/g). Regression analysis showed that the spatial variability of the Hg emissions was significantly related to the street dust concentrations. Controlled experiments using Hg amended street dust confirmed the relationship between Hg surface concentration and emission magnitude. Within a given sample site, Hg emissions varied temporally and multiple regression analysis showed that within-site variability was significantly influenced by changes in solar radiation with only a minor effect from surface temperature. Controlled experiments using shade cloths confirmed that solar radiation can have a large influence on the magnitude of Hg emissions within a given site. The emissions measured in Toronto were contextualized through comparison sampling in Austin, Texas. The Hg emissions measured in Austin were within the range detected in Toronto and also showed significant correlation with Hg street dust concentrations between sites. To provide a holistic assessment of Hg emissions from urban environments, samples were also collected from other common urban surfaces (soil, roofs, and windows). Soils consistently had higher emissions than all the other surfaces (7.3 ng/m²/h, n = 39).     

Trace/minor element:calcium ratios in cultured benthic foraminifera. Part I: Inter-species and inter-individual variability

Trace/minor element signatures (D_Cd, D_Ba, D_Mg, and D_Sr) were measured in the tests (shells) of benthic foraminifera cultured in a trace-metal-concentration-controlled system. The culture system was constructed of inert materials and designed to limit microhabitat effects. This system ensured that variation observed in cultured foraminiferal element:calcium (TE/Ca) signatures was due to biologically mediated (vital) effects only. Two species, Bulimina aculeata and Rosalina vilardeboana, reproduced prolifically during two 4-to-8-month culture periods. In every case (i.e., for both species and each element), the inter-individual variability was larger than the analytical precision. Mean (±1 standard deviation) D_E signatures for B. aculeata were: D_Cd: 1.5 ± 0.4, D_Ba × 10: 2.1 ± 0.7, D_Mg × 1000: 0.62 ± 0.15, and D_Sr × 10: 1.5 ± 0.1. Cultured B. aculeata D_Mg, calibrated from culture and core-top (live) field specimens, predicted temperatures within ±2.0 °C. The observed inter-individual variability from culture specimens was as large or larger than comparable results from core-top investigations. R. vilardeboana D_Cd signatures were significantly lower, while D_Ba, D_Mg, and D_Sr signatures were significantly higher than B. aculeata values. Since our culture system minimizes microhabitat variability, the variation in measured TE/Ca ratios suggests that biological processes are a significant factor in inter-individual and inter-species variability. Comparison of cultured and field-collected foraminiferal D_Ba signatures supports previous findings that pore-water chemistry is a major environmental influence on foraminiferal test chemistry.     

Daily variability in abundance and population characteristics of tidal salt-marsh fauna

Nekton and macrocrustacean population levels and characteristics were studied in two similar tidal marsh creeks. Absolute and area-adjusted data were analyzed to determine variability resulting from daily population fluctuations. Two sampling schemes—intensive 3-d seasonal and periodic 1-d—were examined by constructing probability matrices to compare the accuracy of data comparisons resulting from each scheme. The probability of inaccuracies in comparisons of abundance using nonreplicated sampling schemes ranged from 0% to 100%. Significant differences between consecutive day data were observed for population characteristics such as blue crab (Callinectes sapidus) sex ratios, spot (Leiostomus xanthurus) length-weights, killifish: sciaenid ratios, and killifish: blue crab ratios. These data support the need to account for short-term variability when assessing mobile aquatic fauna abundance in estuarine wetlands.