Multi‐Season Atmospheric Normalization of NOAA AVHRR Derived NDVI for Crop Yield Modeling

Abstract

A methodology has been developed to normalize the multi‐temporal NDVIs derived from NOAA AVHRR data for the atmospheric effects to the least affected NDVI for development of spectral and spectrometeorological (or spectromet, for short) crop yield models. This is found to reduce the noise in NDVI due to varying atmospheric conditions from season to season and improve the predictability of statistical multiple linear regression yield models. The spectromet yield models for mustard crop in the nine districts of Rajasthan state haven been developed based on normalized NDVIs and have been validated by comparing the predicted yields with the estimated from crop cutting experiments by the state Development of Agriculture.     

Evaluating a satellite-based seasonal evapotranspiration product and identifying its relationship with other satellite-derived products and crop yield: A case study for Ethiopia

Satellite-derived evapotranspiration anomalies and normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) products from Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) data are currently used for African agricultural drought monitoring and food security status assessment. In this study, a process to evaluate satellite-derived evapotranspiration (ETa) products with a geospatial statistical exploratory technique that uses NDVI, satellite-derived rainfall estimate (RFE), and crop yield data has been developed. The main goal of this study was to evaluate the ETa using the NDVI and RFE, and identify a relationship between the ETa and Ethiopia’s cereal crop (i.e., teff, sorghum, corn/maize, barley, and wheat) yields during the main rainy season. Since crop production is one of the main factors affecting food security, the evaluation of remote sensing-based seasonal ETa was done to identify the appropriateness of this tool as a proxy for monitoring vegetation condition in drought vulnerable and food insecure areas to support decision makers. The results of this study showed that the comparison between seasonal ETa and RFE produced strong correlation (R² > 0.99) for all 41 crop growing zones in Ethiopia. The results of the spatial regression analyses of seasonal ETa and NDVI using Ordinary Least Squares and Geographically Weighted Regression showed relatively weak yearly spatial relationships (R² < 0.7) for all cropping zones. However, for each individual crop zones, the correlation between NDVI and ETa ranged between 0.3 and 0.84 for about 44% of the cropping zones. Similarly, for each individual crop zones, the correlation (R²) between the seasonal ETa anomaly and de-trended cereal crop yield was between 0.4 and 0.82 for 76% (31 out of 41) of the crop growing zones. The preliminary results indicated that the ETa products have a good predictive potential for these 31 identified zones in Ethiopia. Decision makers may potentially use ETa products for monitoring cereal crop yields and early warning of food insecurity during drought years for these identified zones.     

Yield Forecasting of Spring Maize Using Remote Sensing and Crop Modeling in Faisalabad-Punjab Pakistan

Real time, accurate and reliable estimation of maize yield is valuable to policy makers in decision making. The current study was planned for yield estimation of spring maize using remote sensing and crop modeling. In crop modeling, the CERES-Maize model was calibrated and evaluated with the field experiment data and after calibration and evaluation, this model was used to forecast maize yield. A Field survey of 64 farm was also conducted in Faisalabad to collect data on initial field conditions and crop management data. These data were used to forecast maize yield using crop model at farmers’ field. While in remote sensing, peak season Landsat 8 images were classified for landcover classification using machine learning algorithm. After classification, time series normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) and land surface temperature (LST) of the surveyed 64 farms were calculated. Principle component analysis were run to correlate the indicators with maize yield. The selected LSTs and NDVIs were used to develop yield forecasting equations using least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) regression. Calibrated and evaluated results of CERES-Maize showed the mean absolute % error (MAPE) of 0.35–6.71% for all recorded variables. In remote sensing all machine learning algorithms showed the accuracy greater the 90%, however support vector machine (SVM-radial basis) showed the higher accuracy of 97%, that was used for classification of maize area. The accuracy of area estimated through SVM-radial basis was 91%, when validated with crop reporting service. Yield forecasting results of crop model were precise with RMSE of 255 kg ha^?1, while remote sensing showed the RMSE of 397 kg ha^?1. Overall strength of relationship between estimated and actual grain yields were good with R² of 0.94 in both techniques. For regional yield forecasting remote sensing could be used due greater advantages of less input dataset and if focus is to assess specific stress, and interaction of plant genetics to soil and environmental conditions than crop model is very useful tool.     

On spectral indices as a function of soil variability in safflower crop

Spectral indices as an indicator of physiological traits affecting safflower yield in relation to soil variability were evaluated in a two year experiment (1997–1999). Reflectance, biometric and phonological data were collected. Two indices namely normalized differential vegetation index (NDVI) and ratio of spectral reflectance in infrared region to red region (1R/R) were derived from radiometric observation. Yield data indicated significant difference in different soils. Temporal NDVI behaviour as a function of soil type was not prominent especially in early stages of crop growth. However NDVI at 75 days after sowing (DAS) was found to be relatively better indicator of plant status and yield. IR/R was relatively less effective in indicating the differential response of crop to soil types. Effect of soil and crop interaction on spectral indices was significant at 75 and 90 DAS, which was attributed to attainment of maximum leaf area and leaf area at these stages of growth. Regression analysis showed strong positive relationship between NDVI and leaf area, dry matter and yield. IR/R and leaf area had the strongest and consistent relationship (r = 0.96). A single regression equation accounted for yield variability in the dataset. Thus possible transformation of NDVI maps (satellite data) to LAI units and consequently applications like yield forecasting was indicated. Utility of spectra-temporal data as a pointer of plant development status and yield was also demonstrated.     

Land Cover Change and Associated Trends in Surface Reflectivity and Vegetation Index in Southwest Kansas: 1972-1992

Abstract

Land cover is an important component of the earth system. Human induced surface alteration can affect earth systems directly, through loss or degradation of ecosystems, or indirectly through impact on the climate and biogeochemical cycles necessary to sustain life on earth. The significance of the earth's surface has made land use/land cover change an important issue in global change research. Alteration of land cover occurs at a variety of spatial scales, but as with many environmental change issues, the impacts of surface changes are often conceptualized at the global scale. In this study, we investigate the effects of land cover change on total reflected radiation and the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) in a 10,000 km² local area in the High Plains of southwestern Kansas. Landsat MSS data from five years of record within the twenty‐year period 1973 to 1992 were classified into cool season crop, warm season crop, and pasture/prairie. Mean values of summer reflectance and NDVI from each cover type and for the study area as a whole were then analyzed for systematic change over the study period. Both reflectivity and vegetation index increased during the study period, although causes for the increase appear to be different. Results suggest that changes in mean surface reflectance in the study site are strongly influenced by land cover change, whereas changes in NDVI are more closely linked to 50‐day antecedent precipitation.     

An analysis of cropland mask choice and ancillary data for annual corn yield forecasting using MODIS data

The Midwestern United States is one of the world’s most important corn-producing regions. Monitoring and forecasting of corn yields in this intensive agricultural region are important activities to support food security, commodity markets, bioenergy industries, and formation of national policies. This study aims to develop forecasting models that have the capability to provide mid-season prediction of county-level corn yields for the entire Midwestern United States. We used multi-temporal MODIS NDVI (normalized difference vegetation index) 16-day composite data as the primary input, with digital elevation model (DEM) and parameter-elevation relationships on independent slopes model (PRISM) climate data as additional inputs. The DEM and PRISM data, along with three types of cropland masks were tested and compared to evaluate their impacts on model predictive accuracy. Our results suggested that the use of general cropland masks (e.g., summer crop or cultivated crops) generated similar results compared with use of an annual corn-specific mask. Leave-one-year-out cross-validation resulted in an average R² of 0.75 and RMSE value of 1.10 t/ha. Using a DEM as an additional model input slightly improved performance, while inclusion of PRISM climate data appeared not to be important for our regional corn-yield model. Furthermore, our model has potential for real-time/early prediction. Our corn yield esitmates are available as early as late July, which is an improvement upon previous corn-yield prediction models. In addition to annual corn yield forecasting, we examined model uncertainties through spatial and temporal analysis of the model's predictive error distribution. The magnitude of predictive error (by county) appears to be associated with the spatial patterns of corn fields in the study area.     

Development and validation of spectrometeorological yield models of mustard oil seed crop in Rajasthan state

Attempt has been made to develop spectro meteorological yield models using normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) derived from NOAA AVHRR data over the crop growth period and monthly rainfall data for predicting yield of mustard crop. The AVHRR data spanning seven crop growing seasons, the rain gauze station-level rainfall data and crop yield data determined from crop cutting experiments (CCE) conducted by state Directorate of Economics and Statistics (DES) are the basic input data. A methodology has been developed to normalize the multi-temporal NDVIs for the minimisation of atmospheric effects, which is found to reduce the noise in NDVI due to varying atmospheric conditions from season to season and improve the predictability of statistical multiple linear regression yield models developed for nine geographically large districts of Rajasthan state. The spectro meteorological yield models had been validated by comparing the predicted district level yields with those estimated from the crop cutting experiments.     

Wheat crop production estimation using satellite data

This paper reports acreage, yield and production forecasting of wheat crop using remote sensing and agrometeorological data for the 1998–99 rabi season. Wheat crop identification and discrimination using Indian Remote Sensing (IRS) ID LISS III satellite data was carried out by supervised maximum likelihood classification. Three types of wheat crop viz. wheat-1 (high vigour-normal sown), wheat-2 (moderate vigour-late sown) and wheat-3 (low vigour-very late sown) have been identified and discriminated from each other. Before final classification of satellite data spectral separability between classes were evaluated. For yield prediction of wheat crop spectral vegetation indices (RVI and NDVI), agrometeorological parameters (ET_max and TD) and historical crop yield (actual yield) trend analysis based linear and multiple linear regression models were developed. The estimated wheat crop area was 75928.0 ha. for the year 1998–99, which sowed ?2.59% underestimation with land record commissioners estimates. The yield prediction through vegetation index based and vegetation index with agrometeorological indices based models were 1753 kg/ha and 1754 kg/ha, respectively and have shown relative deviation of 0.17% and 0.22%, the production estimates from above models when compared with observed production show relative deviation of ?2.4% and ?2.3% underestimations, respectively.     

Interpretation of crop growth patterns by means of NDVI‐time series in Zambia

A method to correlate crop production in Zambia to the yearly evolution of the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) is proposed. The method consists of the analysis of remote sensing data together with meteorological data and simulated crop production to obtain indicators of crop production. The accuracy of these indicators is assessed with statistical data.

The main objective was to assess whether the NDVI‐time series extracted from NOAA‐AVHRR‐images , having a pixel resolution of 73 km may give reliable information on crop production in Zambia where agricultural areas cover just 1% of the land area.

The mean NDVI‐value of several pixels, e.g. for one province or other administrative units, relates to the dominant type of vegetation in the area under consideration.

It is shown that the 7.3 km NDVI‐data give reliable indications on crop production in Zambia, when small areas (200–450 km² large ) are considered where agricultural land use is intensive. This implies that preliminary analysis is required to localize the agricultural areas. This has been done by means of high resolution satellite images i.e. LANDSAT‐MultiSpectral Scanner.

Consequently, the NDVI‐time series of the ‘agricultural ‘ pixels are used to calculate crop growth indicators which can be applied to assess the crop production.     

Yield estimation using SPOT-VEGETATION products: A case study of wheat in European countries

In the period 1999–2009 ten-day SPOT-VEGETATION products of the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) and Fraction of Absorbed Photosynthetically Active Radiation (FAPAR) at 1 km spatial resolution were used in order to estimate and forecast the wheat yield over Europe. The products were used together with official wheat yield statistics to fine-tune a statistical model for each NUTS2 region, based on the Partial Least Squares Regression (PLSR) method. This method has been chosen to construct the model in the presence of many correlated predictor variables (10-day values of remote sensing indicators) and a limited number of wheat yield observations. The model was run in two different modalities: the “monitoring mode”, which allows for an overall yield assessment at the end of the growing season, and the “forecasting mode”, which provides early and timely yield estimates when the growing season is on-going. Performances of yield estimation at the regional and national level were evaluated using a cross-validation technique against yield statistics and the estimations were compared with those of a reference crop growth model. Models based on either NDVI or FAPAR normalized indicators achieved similar results with a minimal advantage of the model based on the FAPAR product. Best modelling results were obtained for the countries in Central Europe (Poland, North-Eastern Germany) and also Great Britain. By contrast, poor model performances characterize countries as follows: Sweden, Finland, Ireland, Portugal, Romania and Hungary. Country level yield estimates using the PLSR model in the monitoring mode, and those of a reference crop growth model that do not make use of remote sensing information showed comparable accuracies. The largest estimation errors were observed in Portugal, Spain and Finland for both approaches. This convergence may indicate poor reliability of the official yield statistics in these countries.     

Extracting Regional Pattern of Wheat Sowing Dates Using Multispectral and High Temporal Observations from Indian Geostationary Satellite

Monitoring of Agricultural crops using remote sensing data is an emerging tool in recent years. Spatial determination of sowing date is an important input of any crop model. Geostationary satellite has the capability to provide data at high temporal interval to monitor vegetation throughout the entire growth period. A study was conducted to estimate the sowing date of wheat crop in major wheat growing states viz. Punjab, Haryana, Uttar Pradesh (UP), Madhya Pradesh (MP), Rajasthan and Bihar. Data acquired by Charged Couple Detector (CCD) onboard Indian geostationary satellite INSAT 3A have continental (Asia) coverage at 1 km?×?1 km spatial resolution in optical spectral bands with high temporal frequency. Daily operational Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) product from INSAT 3A CCD available through Meteorological and Oceanographic Satellite Data Archival Centre (MOSDAC) was used to estimate sowing date of wheat crop in selected six states. Daily NDVI data acquired from September 1, 2010 to December 31, 2010 were used in this study. A composite of 7 days was prepared for further analysis of temporal profile of NDVI. Spatial wheat crop map derived from AWiFS (56 m) were re-sampled at INSAT 3A CCD parent resolution and applied over each 7 day composite. The characteristic temporal profiles of 7 day NDVI composite was used to determine sowing date. NDVI profile showed decreasing trend during maturity of kharif crop, minimum value after harvest and increasing trend after emergence of wheat crop. A mathematical model was made to capture the persistent positive slope of NDVI profile after an inflection point. The change in behavior of NDVI profile was detected on the basis of change in NDVI threshold of 0.3 and sowing date was estimated for wheat crop in six states. Seven days has been deducted after it reached to threshold value with persistent positive slope to get sowing date. The clear distinction between early sowing and late sowing regions was observed in study area. Variation of sowing date was observed ranging from November 1 to December 20. The estimated sowing date was validated with the reported sowing date for the known wheat crop regions. The RMSD of 3.2 (n?=?45) has been observed for wheat sowing date. This methodology can also be applied over different crops with the availability of crop maps.     

A study on trade-offs between spatial resolution and temporal sampling density for wheat yield estimation using both thermal and calendar time

Within-season forecasting of crop yields is of great economic, geo-strategic and humanitarian interest. Satellite Earth Observation now constitutes a valuable and innovative way to provide spatio-temporal information to assist such yield forecasts. This study explores different configurations of remote sensing time series to estimate of winter wheat yield using either spatially finer but temporally sparser time series (5daily at 100 m spatial resolution) or spatially coarser but denser (300 m and 1 km at daily frequency) time series. Furthermore, we hypothesised that better yield estimations could be made using thermal time, which is closer to the crop physiological development. Time series of NDVI from the PROBA-V instrument, which has delivered images at a spatial resolution of 100 m, 300 m and 1 km since 2013, were extracted for 39 fields for field and 56 fields for regional level analysis across Northern France during the growing season 2014-2015. An asymmetric double sigmoid model was fitted on the NDVI series of the central pixel of the field. The fitted model was subsequently integrated either over thermal time or over calendar time, using different baseline NDVI thresholds to mark the start and end of the cropping season. These integrated values were used as a predictor for yield using a simple linear regression and yield observations at field level. The dependency of this relationship on the spatial pixel purity was analysed for the 100 m, 300 m and 1 km spatial resolution. At field level, depending on the spatial resolution and the NDVI threshold, the adjusted R² ranged from 0.20 to 0.74; jackknifed – leave-one-field-out cross validation – RMSE ranged from 0.6 to 1.07 t/ha and MAE ranged between 0.46 and 0.90 t/ha for thermal time analysis. The best results for yield estimation (adjusted R² = 0.74, RMSE =0.6 t/ha and MAE =0.46 t/ha) were obtained from the integration over thermal time of 100 m pixel resolution using a baseline NDVI threshold of 0.2 and without any selection based on pixel purity. The field scale yield estimation was aggregated to the regional scale using 56 fields. At the regional level, there was a difference of 0.0012 t/ha between thermal and calendar time for average yield estimations. The standard error of mean results showed that the error was larger for a higher spatial resolution with no pixel purity and smaller when purity increased. These results suggest that, for winter wheat, a finer spatial resolution rather than a higher revisit frequency and an increasing pixel purity enable more accurate yield estimations when integrated over thermal time at the field scale and at the regional scale only if higher pixel purity levels are considered. This method can be extended to larger regions, other crops, and other regions in the world, although site and crop-specific adjustments will have to include other threshold temperatures to reflect the boundaries of phenological activity. In general, however, this methodological approach should be applicable to yield estimation at the parcel and regional scales across the world.     

A GIS‐Based Procedure for Downscaling Climate Data for West Africa

Local studies aimed at assessing the impact of climate variability on crop yield at the individual farm level require the use of weather and climate data. These are often collected at points known as meteorological stations. In West Africa, meteorological stations are sparsely distributed and as a result, are often unable to satisfy the data requirements for such studies. One major problem arising from this is how to estimate values for locations where primary data is not available. General Circulation Models (GCMs) have recently been deployed for weather forecasting and climate change projections but the resolution of their outputs is low requiring downscaling. This article describes a GIS‐based procedure for downscaling GCMs’ outputs for use in studies assessing the impacts of climate variability on crop yield at the farm level. The procedure is implemented with the Hadley Centre's GCM (HadCM2) data, although any other GCM can be used. Results in this study show that the model works best when representing drier months as compared to wet months in all three domains tested. For example, it estimated the rainfall for January (the driest month) better than that of July which is the peak of the rainy season in West Africa. There is also a north‐south pattern influencing the accuracy of estimated rainfall distribution, with stations in the south better represented than those in the north. For the greater part of West Africa where similar climatic conditions persist as in Nigeria, this procedure can be considered suitable for interpolation and downscaling.     

Yield Estimation Model and Water Productivity of Wheat Crop (Triticum aestivum) in an Irrigation Command Using Remote Sensing and GIS

Crop yield estimation has an important role on economy development and its accuracy and speed influence yield price and helps in deciding the excess or deficit production conditions. The water productivity evaluates the irrigation command through water use efficiency (WUE). Remote sensing (RS) and geographical information system (GIS) techniques were used for crop yield and water productivity estimation of wheat crop (Triticum aestivum) grown in Tarafeni South Main Canal (TSMC) irrigation command of West Bengal State in India. One IRS P6 image and four wide field sensor (WiFS) images for different months of winter season were used to determine the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) and Soil Adjusted Vegetation Index (SAVI) for area under wheat crop. The temporally and spatially distributed spectral growth profile and AREASUM of NDVI (A_NDVI) and SAVI (A_SAVI) with time after sowing of wheat crop were developed and correlated with actual crop yield of wheat (Y_act). The developed relationships between A_SAVI and Y_act resulted high correlation in comparison to that of A_NDVI. Using the developed model the RS based wheat yield (Y_RS) predicted from A_SAVI varied on entire TSMC irrigation command from 22.67 to 33.13 q ha⁻¹ respectively, which gave an average yield of 26.50 q ha⁻¹. The RS generated yield based water use efficiency (WUE_YRS) for water supplied from canal of TSMC irrigation command was found to be 6.69 kg ha⁻¹ mm⁻¹.     

Spectral wheat growth profile in Punjab using IRS WiFS data

A functional form of crop spectral profile suggested by Badhwar was applied to district-wise wheat Normalised Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) values relatively normalised by Pseudo-Invariant Feature (urban and built-up) NDVI values, derived from Wide Field Sensor (WiFS) onboard Indian Remote Sensing Satellites (IRS) for 17 dates during 1999–2000 rabi season. The goodness of overall profile fitting and the three basic parameters i.e., crop emergence date (T_o), and crop specific parameters (a and P) was found to be statistically significant. While a corresponds to profile progressive growth rate, β corresponds to profile decay rate. A comparison with earlier studies in Punjab using NOAA-AVHRR indicated improvement in relation between peak NDVI and wheat yield. The estimated time of spectral emergence and profile-derived peak NDVI follow the observed behaviour of shortened crop pre-anthesis period with delayed sowing.     

Generation of high spatial and temporal resolution NDVI and its application in crop biomass estimation

Abstract

While data like HJ-1 CCD images have advantageous spatial characteristics for describing crop properties, the temporal resolution of the data is rather low, which can be easily made worse by cloud contamination. In contrast, although Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) can only achieve a spatial resolution of 250 m in its normalised difference vegetation index (NDVI) product, it has a high temporal resolution, covering the Earth up to multiple times per day. To combine the high spatial resolution and high temporal resolution of different data sources, a new method (Spatial and Temporal Adaptive Vegetation index Fusion Model [STAVFM]) for blending NDVI of different spatial and temporal resolutions to produce high spatial–temporal resolution NDVI datasets was developed based on Spatial and Temporal Adaptive Reflectance Fusion Model (STARFM). STAVFM defines a time window according to the temporal variation of crops, takes crop phenophase into consideration and improves the temporal weighting algorithm. The result showed that the new method can combine the temporal information of MODIS NDVI and spatial difference information of HJ-1 CCD NDVI to generate an NDVI dataset with both high spatial and high temporal resolution. An application of the generated NDVI dataset in crop biomass estimation was provided. An average absolute error of 17.2% was achieved. The estimated winter wheat biomass correlated well with observed biomass (R ² of 0.876). We conclude that the new dataset will improve the application of crop biomass estimation by describing the crop biomass accumulation in detail. There is potential to apply the approach in many other studies, including crop production estimation, crop growth monitoring and agricultural ecosystem carbon cycle research, which will contribute to the implementation of Digital Earth by describing land surface processes in detail.     

Local-scale agricultural drought monitoring with satellite-based multi-sensor time-series

ABSTRACT

Globally, drought constitutes a serious threat to food and water security. The complexity and multivariate nature of drought challenges its assessment, especially at local scales. The study aimed to assess spatiotemporal patterns of crop condition and drought impact at the spatial scale of field management units with a combined use of time-series from optical (Landsat, MODIS, Sentinel-2) and Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) (Sentinel 1) data. Several indicators were derived such as Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI), Normalized Difference Moisture Index (NDMI), Land Surface Temperature (LST), Tasseled cap indices and Sentinel-1 based backscattering intensity and relative surface moisture. We used logistic regression to evaluate the drought-induced variability of remotely sensed parameters estimated for different phases of crop growth. The parameters with the highest prediction rate were further used to estimate thresholds for drought/non-drought classification. The models were evaluated using the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve and validated with in-situ data. The results revealed that not all remotely sensed variables respond in the same manner to drought conditions. Growing season maximum NDVI and NDMI (70–75%) and SAR derived metrics (60%) reflect specifically the impact of agricultural drought. These metrics also depict stress affected areas with a larger spatial extent. LST was a useful indicator of crop condition especially for maize and sunflower with prediction rates of 86% and 71%, respectively. The developed approach can be further used to assess crop condition and to support decision-making in areas which are more susceptible and vulnerable to drought.     

Agricultural drought assessment at disaggregated level using AWiFS/WiFS data of Indian Remote Sensing satellites

Spatial differences in drought proneness and intensity of drought caused by differences in cropping patterns and crop growing environments within a district indicate the need for agricultural drought assessment at disaggregated level. The objective of this study is to use moderate resolution satellite images for detailed assessment of the agricultural drought situation at different administrative units (blocks) within a district. Monthly time composite NDVI images derived from moderate resolution AWiFS (60 m) and WiFS (180 m) images from Indian Remote Sensing satellites were analysed along with ground data on rainfall and crop sown areas for the kharif seasons (June – November) of 2002 (drought year), 2004 (early season drought) and 2005 (good monsoon year). The impact of the 2002 meteorological drought on crop area in different blocks of the district was assessed. The amplitude of crop condition variability in a severe drought year (2002) and a good year (2005) was used to map the degree of vulnerability of different blocks in the district to agricultural drought. The impact of early season deficit rainfall in 2004 on the agricultural situation and subsequent recovery of the agricultural situation was clearly shown. Agricultural drought assessment at disaggregated level using moderate resolution images is useful for prioritizing the problem areas within a district to undertake, in season drought management plans, such as alternate cropping strategies, as well as for end of the season drought relief management actions. The availability of ground data on rainfall, cropping pattern, crop calendar, irrigation, soil type etc., is very crucial in order to interpret the seasonal NDVI patterns at disaggregated level for drought assessment. The SWIR band of AWiFS sensor is a potential data source for assessing surface drought at the beginning of the season.     

Deriving Crop Phenology Metrics and Their Trends Using Times Series NOAA-AVHRR NDVI Data

In this study, an attempt has been made to derive the spatial patterns of temporal trends in phenology metrics and productivity of crops grown, at disaggregated level in Indo-Gangetic Plains of India (IGP), which are helpful in understanding the impact of climatic, ecological and socio-economic drivers. The NOAA-AVHRR NDVI PAL dataset from 1981 to 2001 was stacked as per the crop year and subjected to Savitzky-Golay filtering. For crop pixels, maximum and minimum values of normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI), their time of occurrence and total duration of kharif (June-October) and rabi (November–April) crop seasons were derived for each crop year and later subjected to pixel-wise regression with time to derive the rate and direction of change. The maximum NDVI value showed increasing trends across IGP during both kharif and rabi seasons indicating a general increase in productivity of crops. The trends in time of occurrence of peak NDVI during kharif dominated with rice showed that the maximum vegetative growth stage was happening early with time during study period across most of Punjab, North Haryana, Parts of Central and East Uttar Pradesh and some parts of Bihar and West Bengal. Only central parts of Haryana showed a delay in occurrence of maximum vegetative stage with time. During rabi, no significant trends in occurrence of peak NDVI were observed in most of Punjab and Haryana except in South Punjab and North Haryana where early occurrence of peak NDVI with time was observed. Most parts of Central and Eastern Uttar Pradesh, North Bihar and West Bengal showed a delay in occurrence of peak NDVI with time. In general, the rice dominating system was showing an increase in duration with time in Punjab, Haryana, Western Uttar Pradesh, Central Uttar Pradesh and South Bihar whereas in some parts of North Bihar and West Bengal a decrease in the duration with time was also observed. During rabi season, except Punjab, the wheat dominating system was showing a decreasing trend in crop duration with time.     

A Comparative Analysis of Phenological Curves for Major Crops in Kansas

The goal of this research was to conduct an initial investigation into whether a time-series NDVI reference curve library for crops over a growing season for one year could be used to map crops for a different year. Time-series NDVI libraries of curves for 2001 and 2005 were investigated to ascertain whether or not the 2001 dataset could be used to map crops for 2005. The 2005 16-day composite MODIS 250 m NDVI data were used to extract NDVI values from 1,615 field sites representing alfalfa, corn, sorghum, soybeans, and winter wheat. A k-means cluster analysis of NDVI values from the field sites was performed to identify validation sites with time-series NDVI spectral profiles characteristic of the major crop types grown in Kansas. After completing the field site refinement process, there were 1,254 field sites retained for further analysis, referred to as "final" field sites. The methods employed to evaluate whether the MODIS-based NDVI profiles for major crops in Kansas are stable from year-to-year involved both graphical and statistical analyses. First, the time-series NDVI values for 2005 from the final field sites were aggregated by crop type and the crop NDVI profiles were then visually assessed and compared to the profiles of 2001 to ascertain if each crop's unique phenological pattern was consistent between the two years. Second, separability within each crop class in the time-series NDVI data between 2001 and 2005 was investigated numerically using the Jeffries-Matusita (JM) distance statistic. The results seem to suggest that time-series NDVI response curves for crops over a growing period for one year of valid ground reference data may be useful for mapping crops for a different year when minor temporal shifts in the NDVI values (resulting from inter-annual climate variations or changes in agricultural management practices) are taken into account.