土地利用变化模拟模型及应用研究进展

元胞自动机CA(Cellular Automata)和多智能体ABM(Agent-Based Model)模型是土地利用格局和演化模拟的主流方法,两者在模拟自然因素影响和人文驱动机制方面具有突出优势,为LUCC研究提供了重要的工具。当前,ABM无论在模型构建还是应用研究方面,CA和ABM均取得了显著进展。论文从数据基础、模拟尺度、CA转换规则挖掘、ABM行为规则定义、CA和ABM的耦合4个方面梳理土地利用模拟模型和方法的研究进展。并总结这些模型在虚拟城市模拟与理论验证、真实城市模拟与规划预测以及多类用地模拟与辅助决策等方面的应用。最后,总结土地利用模拟模型在精细模拟和全球变化研究方面存在的局限性,认为未来发展将主要集中于解决从2维模型向3维模型发展、大数据与规则精细挖掘以及大尺度模拟与知识迁移等问题。     

Local spatial context measurements used to explore the relationship between land cover and land use functions

Research making use of satellite data for land change science has developed in the last decades. However, analysis of land use has not developed with the same speed as development of new satellite sensors and available land cover data. Improvement of land use analysis is possible, but more advanced methods are needed which make it possible to link image data to analysis of land use functions. To make this linking possible, variable which affect farmer's long term decisions must be taken into account in analysis as well as the relative importance of the landscape itself.A GIS-based tool for the measurement of local spatial context in satellite data is presented in this paper and used to explore the relationship between land covers present in satellite data and land use represented in official databases. By the use of the developed tool, a land configuration image (LCI) over the Siljan area in northern Sweden was produced and used for analysis. The results are twofold. First, the produced LCI holds new information about variables that are relevant for the interpretation of land use. Second, the comparison with statistics of agricultural production shows that production in the study area varies depending on the relative land configuration. Villages consisting of relatively large-scale arable fields and less diverse landscape are less diverse in production than villages which consist of smaller-scale and more heterogonous landscapes. The result is especially relevant for land use studies and policymakers working on environmental and agricultural policies. We conclude that local spatial context is an endogenous variable in the relation between landscape configuration and agricultural land use.     

Development of a GIS-based decision support system for assessing land use status

The objectives of this study are to assess land suitability and to predict the spatial and temporal changes in land use types (LUTs) by using GIS-based land use management decision support system. A GIS database with data on climate, topography, soil characteristic, irrigation condition, fertilizer application, and special socioeconomic activities has been developed and used for the evaluation of land productivity for different crops by integrating with a crop growth model—the erosion productivity impact calculator (EPIC). International food policy simulation model (IFPSIM) is also embedded into GIS for the predictions of how crop demands and crop market prices will change under alternative policy scenarios. An inference engine (IE) including land use choice model is developed to illustrate land use choice behavior based on logit models, which allows to analyze how diversified factors ranging from climate changes, crop price changes to land management changes can effect the distribution of agricultural land use. A test for integrated simulation is taken in each 0.1o by 0.1o grid cell to predict the change of agricultural land use types at global level. Global land use changes are simulated from 1992 to 2050.     

Development of a GIS-based decision support system for assessing land use status

IntroductionAgriculturallandusepatternsandtheirchangesaretightlyrelatedwithagriculturepolicyandfoodsecurityissuesundergrowingfooddemand,assess mentofglobalclimatechangeimpactsonagricul ture,environmentalissuesduetotheintensificationofagriculturallandusessuchaswaterpollution,soildegradation,andrecentlywaterscarcityissues.Soasustainableandholisticplanningandmanage mentoflandresourcesshouldcombineallthesere latedinformationwithefficienttoolsforassessmentandevaluationinordertopermitbroad ,interact…     

Evaluating the compatibility of multi-functional and intensive urban land uses

This research is aimed at developing a model for assessing land use compatibility in densely built-up urban areas. In this process, a new model was developed through the combination of a suite of existing methods and tools: geographical information system, Delphi methods and spatial decision support tools: namely multi-criteria evaluation analysis, analytical hierarchy process and ordered weighted average method. The developed model has the potential to calculate land use compatibility in both horizontal and vertical directions. Furthermore, the compatibility between the use of each floor in a building and its neighboring land uses can be evaluated. The method was tested in a built-up urban area located in Tehran, the capital city of Iran. The results show that the model is robust in clarifying different levels of physical compatibility between neighboring land uses. This paper describes the various steps and processes of developing the proposed land use compatibility evaluation model (CEM).     

Approaches for Linking People,Place, and Environment for Human Dimensions Research

Abstract

Much of the human dimensions of environmental change research emphasize the mapping and modeling of land use and land cover patterns over space and time, and the linkages between people, place, and environment as proximate and distal forces of landscape dynamics. Spatial digital technologies, framed within a GIScience (GISc) context, figure prominently in the characterization of land use and land cover through remote sensing technologies, and in the assessment of social and demographic factors and local and regional site and situation considerations achieved through global positioning systems, data visualizations, and spatial and statistical analyses. Here, we describe some fundamental approaches for linking data across thematic domains, essential for the study of human‐environment interactions. The goal is to generate compatible data sets that extend across social, biophysical, and geographical domains so that the causes and consequences of land use and land cover dynamics might be explored within a spatially‐explicit context.     

地表覆盖遥感产品更新完善的研究动向

近年来,多尺度地表覆盖遥感产品的不断涌现,为环境变化研究、地球系统模拟、地理国(世)情监测和可持续发展规划等提供了重要科学数据。为更好地满足广大用户日益增长的应用需求,应对地表覆盖遥感产品进行持续更新完善,保持其时效性、增强时序性、丰富多样性。针对大面积地表覆盖遥感产品更新完善所面临的主要问题,介绍和评述了国内外有关研究动向,包括影像与众源信息相结合的更新、数据类型细化与完善、地表覆盖真实性验证,并作了简要展望。     

土地利用时空变化与城市化发展分析

城市化发展与科学合理利用土地已经成为社会发展最为关注的问题。土地利用结构发生变化后,不合理的土地利用规划等问题将会导致一系列的生态环境问题,因此,监测土地利用的时空变化,为土地利用规划及城市发展规划提供有效的数据支持很有必要。本文通过年度区间土地利用变化数据,利用转移矩阵、动态度、土地利用重心及土地利用结构信息熵分析土地利用变化情况,经过试验表明能够真实、全面反映土地利用变化状态,充分反映城市发展与土地利用关系,有利于提高分析的准确性和可靠性。     

土地资源遥感应用研究进展

遥感数据与土地资源在时空特性方面具有高度的一致性,土地资源研究长期是遥感应用的主要领域之一。过去数十年来,国内外开展了大量的土地资源与环境遥感应用研究,遥感技术为土地资源研究提供了丰富的信息源和实现手段,拓展了土地资源的研究内容,强化了土地资源的研究程度。随着遥感技术的发展和应用研究的深入,针对日益多样化的实际需求,创新研究方法,加强与传统学科的有机结合,在提取系列化专题信息基础上,开展不同时空尺度的综合性分析与评估,切实满足全球变化研究和实现区域可持续发展的需要,仍然是土地资源遥感应用研究应该关注的主要发展方向。     

武夷山市土地利用变化遥感监测分析

针对近20年来武夷山市土地利用变化信息相对不足的问题,提出运用现代遥感与GIS技术进行武夷山市土地利用变化动态监测的方法。在分析1996年、2005年和2014年3期Landsat影像的基础上,采用监督分类方法提取土地利用信息,然后采用土地利用转移矩阵分析法和动态度分析法,分析了土地利用类型的时空变化情况及发展趋势。结果表明:1996年以来,武夷山市土地利用变化的特点表现为耕地显著增加,而林地明显减少;20年间其他未利用地和城镇的空间变化幅度很大;经济快速发展,旅游业大力发展等是武夷山市土地利用变化的驱动因素。研究结果对武夷山市的生态环境保护以及探究旅游业对土地利用变化的影响有参考价值。     

Modelling the impacts of civil war on land use and land cover change within Kono District,Sierra Leone: a socio-geospatial approach

Capturing the scope and trajectory of changes in land use and land cover (LULC) is critical to urban and regional planning, natural resource sustainability and the overall information needs of policy makers. Studies on LULC change are generally conducted within peaceful environments and seldom incorporate areas that are politically volatile. Consequently, the role of civil conflict on LULC change remains elusive. Using a dense time stack of Landsat Thematic Mapper images and a hybrid classification approach, this study analysed LULC changes in Kono District between 1986–1991, 1991–2002 and 2002–2007 with the overarching goal of elucidating deviations from typical changes in LULC caused by Sierra Leone's civil war (1991–2002). Informed by social survey and secondary data, this study engaged the drivers that facilitated LULC changes during war and non-war periods in a series of spatial regression models in exploring the interface between civil conflict and LULC change.     

Next generation of global land cover characterization,mapping, and monitoring

Land cover change is increasingly affecting the biophysics, biogeochemistry, and biogeography of the Earth's surface and the atmosphere, with far-reaching consequences to human well-being. However, our scientific understanding of the distribution and dynamics of land cover and land cover change (LCLCC) is limited. Previous global land cover assessments performed using coarse spatial resolution (300 m–1 km) satellite data did not provide enough thematic detail or change information for global change studies and for resource management. High resolution (∼30 m) land cover characterization and monitoring is needed that permits detection of land change at the scale of most human activity and offers the increased flexibility of environmental model parameterization needed for global change studies. However, there are a number of challenges to overcome before producing such data sets including unavailability of consistent global coverage of satellite data, sheer volume of data, unavailability of timely and accurate training and validation data, difficulties in preparing image mosaics, and high performance computing requirements. Integration of remote sensing and information technology is needed for process automation and high-performance computing needs. Recent developments in these areas have created an opportunity for operational high resolution land cover mapping, and monitoring of the world. Here, we report and discuss these advancements and opportunities in producing the next generations of global land cover characterization, mapping, and monitoring at 30-m spatial resolution primarily in the context of United States, Group on Earth Observations Global 30 m land cover initiative (UGLC).     

三峡库区近30年土地利用时空变化特征分析

利用三峡库区1975年、1987年、1995年、2000年和2005年的遥感影像数据,提取各期土地利用图。以各期土地利用图为基础图件,利用G IS技术,分析了三峡库区各期土地利用类型的数量、空间分布及变化趋势,分析表明库区的耕地、林地和草地都在减少,库区近30年建设用地和河流水面的增加最为明显。同时引入土地利用变化的景观特征指数、土地利用变化速度、土地利用程度指数来总结三峡库区近30年来土地利用变化的主要时空变化特征。采用多种特征指数相结合的研究方法,有利于了解三峡库区土地利用变化的特征,可以进一步指导库区的土地利用规划,为库区的生态环境保护提供参考。     

Dynamic land use change simulation using cellular automata with spatially nonstationary transition rules

The dynamic relationships between land use change and its driving forces vary spatially and can be identified by geographically weighted regression (GWR). We present a novel cellular automata (GWR-CA) model that incorporates GWR-derived spatially varying relationships to simulate land use change. Our GWR-CA model is characterized by spatially nonstationary transition rules that fully address local interactions in land use change. More importantly, each driving factor in our GWR model contains effects that both promote and resist land use change. We applied GWR-CA to simulate rapid land use change in Suzhou City on the Yangtze River Delta from 2000 to 2015. The GWR coefficients were visualized to highlight their spatial patterns and local variation, which are closely associated with their effects on land use change. The transition rules indicate low land conversion potential in the city’s center and outer suburbs, but higher land conversion potential in the inner near suburbs along the belt expressway. Residual statistics show that GWR fits the input data better than logistic regression (LR). Compared with an LR-based CA model, GWR-CA improves overall accuracy by 4.1% and captures 5.5% more urban growth, suggesting that GWR-CA may be superior in modeling land use change. Our results demonstrate that the GWR-CA model is effective in capturing spatially varying land transition rules to produce more realistic results, and is suitable for simulating land use change and urban expansion in rapidly urbanizing regions.     

Application of Earth Remote Sensing and GIS in Mapping Land Cover Patterns in Kinangop Division, Kenya

<正>Land cover is a fundamental variable that links many facets of the natural environment and a key driver of global environmental change.Alterations in its status can have significant ramifications at local,regional and global levels.Hence,it is imperative to map land cover at a range of spatial and temporal scales with a view to understanding the inherent patterns for effective characterization,prediction and management of the potential environmental impacts.This paper presents the results of an effort to map land cover patterns in Kinangop division,Kenya,using geospatial tools.This is a geographic locality that has experienced rapid land use transformations since Kenya's independence culminating in uncontrolled land cover changes and loss of biodiversity.The changes in land use/cover constrain the natural resource base and presuppose availability of quantitative and spatially explicit land cover data for understanding the inherent patterns and facilitating specific and multi-purpose land use planning and management.As such,the study had two objectives viz.(i) mapping the spatial patterns of land cover in Kinangop using remote sensing and GIS and;(ii) evaluating the quality of the resultant land cover map.ASTER satellite imagery acquired in January 23,2007 was procured and field data gathered between September l0 and October 16,2007.The latter were used for training the maximum likelihood classifier and validating the resultant land cover map.The land cover classification yielded 5 classes,overall accuracy of 83.5%and kappa statistic of 0.79,which conforms to the acceptable standards of land cover mapping. This qualifies its application in environmental decision-making and manifests the utility of geospatial techniques in mapping land resources.     

区域土地灌溉环境评价与决策分析

国土资源是人们赖以生存和发展的物质基础,土地灌溉环境作为国土资源调查的重要内容,其关键基础设施机井的空间配置对于农业生产具有重要的现实意义。本文以北京市通州区永乐店镇为研究区,基于国土资源调查的多源空间数据,提出了一种对现有土地灌溉环境进行定量评价和优化决策的方法。结果表明,研究区既有机井配置有待进一步改进,优化方案给出的183口新增机井合理分配在优化单元内,能够满足当地农民的土地灌溉需求,同时为土地灌溉环境中机井的更新配置提供了依据。     

An open source GIS‐based Planning Support System: Application to the land use plan of La Troncal,Ecuador

Planning Support Systems (PSS) comprise a wide variety of geo‐technological tools related to GIS and spatial modeling aimed at addressing land planning processes. This article describes the OpenRules system, a PSS based on a previous system called RULES. Among OpenRules new features are its architecture, based exclusively on free and open source software, and its applicability to all land use types, including rural and urban uses. In addition, OpenRules incorporates an unlimited number of land evaluation factors and a new objective in land use spatial allocation. OpenRules has been programmed in Java and implemented as a module of the free GIS software gvSIG, with full integration between the GIS and the decision support tools. Decision support tools include multicriteria evaluation, multiobjective linear programming and heuristic techniques, which support three basic stages of land use planning processes, namely land suitability evaluation, land use area optimization and land use spatial allocation. The application of OpenRules to the region of La Troncal, Ecuador, demonstrates its capability to generate alternative and coherent solutions through a scientific and justified procedure at low cost in terms of time and resources.     

Evaluation and development of sustainable urban land use plans through spatial optimization

Along with rapid global urbanization, cities are challenged by environmental risks and resource scarcity. Sustainable urban planning is central to address the dilemma of economic growth and ecosystem protection, where the use of land is critical. Sustainable land use patterns are spatially explicit in nature, and can be structured and addressed using spatial optimization integrating GIS and mathematical models. This research discusses prominent sustainability concerns in land use planning and suggests a generalized multi‐objective spatial optimization model to facilitate conventional planning. The model is structured to meet land use demand while satisfying the requirements of the physical environment, society and economy. Unlike existing work relying on raster data, due to its simple data structure and ease of spatial relationship evaluation, this research develops an approach for identifying land use solutions based on vector data that better reflects the actual shape and spatial layout of land parcels as well as the ways land use information is managed in practice. An evolutionary algorithm is developed to find the set of efficient (Pareto) solutions given the complexity of vector‐based representations of space. The proposed approach is applied in an empirical study of Dafeng, China in order to support local urban growth and development. The results demonstrate that spatial optimization can be a powerful tool for deriving effective and efficient land use planning strategies. A comparison to results using a raster data approach supports the superiority of land use optimization using vector data as part of planning practice.     

Major forest changes and land cover transitions based on plant functional types derived from the ESA CCI Land Cover product

Land use and land cover change are of prime concern due to their impacts on CO₂ emissions, climate change and ecological services. New global land cover products at 300 m resolution from the European Space Agency (ESA) Climate Change Initiative Land Cover (CCI LC) project for epochs centered around 2000, 2005 and 2010 were analyzed to investigate forest area change and land cover transitions. Plant functional types (PFTs) fractions were derived from these land cover products according to a conversion table. The gross global forest loss between 2000 and 2010 is 172,171 km², accounting for 0.6% of the global forest area in year 2000. The forest changes are mainly distributed in tropical areas such as Brazil and Indonesia. Forest gains were only observed between 2005 and 2010 with a global area of 9844 km², mostly from crops in Southeast Asia and South America. The predominant PFT transition is deforestation from forest to crop, accounting for four-fifths of the total increase of cropland area between 2000 and 2010. The transitions from forest to bare soil, shrub, and grass also contributed strongly to the total areal change in PFTs. Different PFT transition matrices and composition patterns were found in different regions. The highest fractions of forest to bare soil transitions were found in the United States and Canada, reflecting forest management practices. Most of the degradation from grassland and shrubland to bare soil occurred in boreal regions. The areal percentage of forest loss and land cover transitions generally decreased from 2000–2005 to 2005–2010. Different data sources and uncertainty in the conversion factors (converting from original LC classes to PFTs) contribute to the discrepancy in the values of change in absolute forest area.     

Evaluation and forecast of human impacts based on land use changes using multi-temporal satellite imagery and GIS: A case study on Zanjan,Iran

Land use and land cover changes due to human activities in a time sequence. Detection of such changes may help decision makers and planners to understand the factors in land use and land cover change in order to take effective and useful measures. Remote sensing and GIS techniques may be used as efficient tools to detect and assess land use change.