Can an annual flood induce changes in channel geomorphology?

The present study has been a pioneering effort examining the role of an annual flood as a potent stimulus inducing changes in channel geomorphology of the Mayurakshi River, India. Twenty cross sections have been considered for the measurement of various hydro-geomorphic attributes of the river in both the pre- and post-flood conditions in 2018. The study sensed an escalating trend for channel width, width/depth ratio, and wetted perimeter while the reverse was also detected for average depth, maximum depth, cross-sectional area, and hydraulic radius. For example, the width/depth ratio recorded an increase of?~?11%, and the hydraulic radius depicted a decrease of?~?8%. Furthermore, channel asymmetry, bed asymmetry and bed relief index experienced a decrease after the flood. The sudden hydraulic impulse during monsoon flood as manifested in velocity, discharge, specific stream power, Reynolds number, Froude number increases the erosivity of the fluid. Besides the hydraulic factors, bank material (massive sandbank susceptible to hydraulic action and mixed bank constituted by alternate bands of sand and silt, and vulnerable to failure by piping action) brings substantial changes in channel morphology. Moreover, anthropogenic interventions such as sand mining are found to play a significant role in channel behaviour. The role of the multiple factors driving the morphological changes of the cross sections has been unpacked using canonical component analysis.

     

坡面薄层流水动力学特性的实验研究

采用变坡实验水槽研究了坡面薄层水流水动力学特性——流态、流速、水深及阻力系数随流量和坡度的变化规律,实验坡度5°～25°、单宽流量为0.625×10-3～12.5×10-3m3/(s·m).研究结果表明,坡面薄层水流流态与水深密切相关,坡面流的流态基本上呈过渡流和紊流;薄层水流平均流速、水深和Darcy-Weisbach阻力系数主要受流量控制,坡度的影响并不显著,其关系均可用流量和坡度的幂函数形式模拟,相关系数(R2)分别为0.98、0.97和0.95,去掉坡度后相关系数分别下降7%、16%和3%.随着雷诺数的增大,Darcy-Weisbach阻力系数下降.当单宽流量小于0.008m3/(s·m)时,坡度对阻力系数的影响较为显著;当流量大于0.008m3/(s·m)时,阻力系数基本受流量控制.随着流量增大,阻力系数呈幂函数形式递减.     

Hydraulic and flood-loss modeling of levee,floodplain, and river management strategies,Middle Mississippi River,USA

In this investigation, four scenarios were used to quantify the balance between the benefits of levees for flood protection and their potential to increase flood risk using Hazards U.S. Multi-Hazard flood-loss software and hydraulic modeling of the Middle Mississippi River (MMR). The goals of this study were (1) to quantify the flood exposure under different flood-control configurations and (2) to assess the relative contributions of various engineered structures and flood-loss strategies to potential flood losses. Removing all the flood-control structures along the MMR, without buyouts or other mitigation, reduced the average flood stages between 2.3 m (100-year flood) and 2.5 m (500-year), but increased the potential flood losses by $4.3–6.7 billion. Removing the agricultural levees downstream of St. Louis decreased the flood stages through the metro region by ~1.0 m for the 100- and 500-year events; flood losses, without buyouts or other mitigation, were increased by $4.3–6.7 billion. Removing the agricultural levees downstream of St. Louis decreased the flood stages through the metro region by ~1.0 m for the 100- and 500-year events; flood losses, without buyouts or other mitigation, were increased by 155 million for the 100-year flood, but were decreased by $109 million for the 500-year flood. Thus, agricultural levees along the MMR protect against small- to medium-size floods (up to the ~100-year flood level) but cause more damage than they prevent during large floods such as the 500-year flood. Buyout costs for the all the buildings within the 500-year floodplain downstream of urban flood-control structures near St. Louis are ~40% less than the cost of repairing the buildings damaged by the 500-year flood. This suggests large-scale buyouts could be the most cost-effective option for flood loss mitigation for properties currently protected by agricultural levees.     

蓄滞洪区洪水资源化的益损定量分析——以大黄堡洼为例

为在蓄滞洪区利用洪水资源,探讨洪水资源化收益和损失的函数关系及其定量分析方法。以大黄堡洼为例,建立收益和损失的准量化函数,基于水文和土地利用信息,采用水力学数学模型,澄清3种特定洪水重现期条件下收益与损失的时空转换关系。研究表明,临界水深是实施洪水资源化规划和管控的关键参数;洪水资源化的入流面积、受益面积、平均水深、最大水深与入流洪量成非线性正比关系,并受到地形地貌和土地利用变化等因素的综合影响。     

Flood risk mapping and crop-water loss modeling using water footprint analysis in agricultural watershed,northern Iran

Natural Hazards - Spatial information on flood risk and flood-related crop losses is important in flood mitigation and risk management in agricultural watersheds. In this study, loss of water bound...     

沉湖湿地近50年退化过程识别

沉湖湿地作为长江中下游平原典型湖泊湿地,1960s以来退化严重.收集1964、1975、1987、1997、1998、2007、2016、2018年8期航拍照片或遥感影像,运用遥感技术、动态度模型和转移矩阵模型分析,揭示武汉市沉湖湿地近50年退化过程及机理.结果表明,1964~2018年沉湖湿地由北向南退缩为鱼塘及耕地,总湿地面积缩小77%;湿地退化过程可分为3个阶段,1964~1975年围湖活动主导湿地湖泊向耕地退化,耕地面积以141%的年变幅扩张,1975~1997年湖泊改造工程迫使湖泊向沼泽退化,1997~2018年由湖泊退化而来的沼泽被进一步开垦为耕地或鱼塘;人口数量的增加及土地利用政策改变导致湿地生态服务功能退化,包括洪水调蓄、自净化功能衰退及生物多样性锐减,其退化模式可为长江中下游平原乃至全国湖泊湿地的退化提供类比参考.      

Basinwide disaster loss assessments under extreme climate scenarios: a case study of the Kaoping River basin

This study examined the Kaoping River basin, Taiwan, an area severely destroyed by Typhoon Morakot in 2009. Dynamically downscaled data were applied to simulate extreme typhoon precipitation events for facilitating future preparation efforts (2075–2099) under climate change conditions. Models were used to simulate possible impacts in upstream and downstream areas for basinwide disaster loss assessment purposes. The Transient Rainfall Infiltration and Grid-Based Regional Slope-Stability and FLO-2D models were applied to simulate slope-land disaster impacts and sediment volume in the upstream area. The sediment delivery ratio was used to calculate the valid sediment amount delivered downstream and the riverbed uplift altitude. SOBEK was used to build a flood impact model for the Kaoping River basin, and the model was used to simulate potential flooding caused by future extreme typhoon events. The Taiwan Typhoon Loss Assessment System established by the National Science and Technology Center for Disaster Reduction was used to evaluate the potential loss associated with extreme events. The property loss calculation included 32 land-use categories, including agriculture, forestry, fishery, and animal husbandry losses; industrial and commercial service losses; public building losses; and traffic and hydraulic facility losses. One of the Kaoping River basin townships, Daliao District, had the highest flood depth increase ratio (12.6%), and the losses were 1.5 times the original situation. This was much worse than were the losses suffered during Typhoon Morakot. These results also show that sediment delivered from the upstream areas had a significant influence on the downstream areas. This is a critical issue for future flood mitigation under climate change conditions.     

A methodology for estimating business interruption loss caused by flood disasters: insights from business surveys after Tokai Heavy Rain in Japan

This study proposes a probabilistic methodology for estimating the business interruption loss of industrial sectors as an extension of current methodology. The functional forms and parameters are selected and calibrated based on survey data obtained from businesses located in the inundated area at the time of the 2000 Tokai Heavy Rain in Japan. The Tokai Heavy Rain was a rare event that hit a densely populated and industrialized area. In the estimation of business interruption losses, functional fragility curves and accelerated failure time models are selected to estimate the extent of damage to production capacity and production recovery time. Significant explanatory variables, such as inundation depth, distinct vulnerability, and the resilience characteristics of each sector, as well as the accuracy of fit of the model, are analyzed in the study. The function obtained and the estimated parameters can be utilized as benchmarks in estimating the probabilistic distribution of business interruption losses, especially in the case of urban flood disasters.

     

Risk assessment of earth dam overtopping and its application research

The problem of dam safety is one of the most important research topics of water conservancy projects, and many researchers pay much attention to study the risk of earth dam overtopping. This paper synthesizes in the definition of risk the probabilities of dam failure and the corresponding losses, including the probability estimation, losses evaluation and criteria exploring risk approaches. Then, a comprehensive risk assessment system of dam flood overtopping is established, which is widely applicable. Gate failure, randomness of flood, initial water level and time-varying effects are incorporated in the failure probability model. Many complex factors are simplified in losses estimation. In addition, thresholds of various types of losses are proposed and are adapted to the national conditions. The methodology is applied to the Lianghekou hydropower station in China to illustrate the assessment process of flood overtopping risk and to evaluate its safe loophole with a view to the failure of spillway gates. Monte Carlo simulation and JC method programs are adopted to solve the model based on MATLAB tools and DELPHI. The results show that the losses pose significant impact on the risk assessment and should be considered in the assessment of risk. Probability calculation and loss estimation could be well combined with standards, providing a basis for risk management and decision-making.     

Sinkhole management and flooding in Jamaica

More than 518 km² (200 mi²) of prime lands in Jamaica lay on Karstic material where sinkholes are the natural outlet of important streams. Due to increasing social pressure, the lands are inappropriately managed and as a consequence, vegetal debris and silting have plugged the sinkholes which have thus lost their capacity to drain the runoff produced during heavy rainfalls. One of these areas is Cave Valley, which during the last 36 years, has been affected by at least six floodings, some of which have produced losses of life and property, in a sector of the Jamaican population which is already under severe economic hardship. A flood prevention and mitigation project is being implemented including watershed management, river training and community preparedness. A geologic, hydrologic, and hydraulic analysis are also part of this study. All these measures are expected to reduce future losses. This article is not an official World Meteorological Organization document and WMO does not necessarily share the views expressed in it.     

Estimating potential direct runoff for ungauged urban watersheds based on RST and GIS

Estimating the potential direct runoff for urban watersheds is essential for flood risk mitigation and rainwater harvesting. Thus, this study aims to estimate the potential runoff depth based on the natural resources conservation service (NRCS) method and delineation of the watersheds in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia. To accomplish this objective, the geographic information systems (GIS) and remote sensing technique (RST) data were integrated to save time and improve analysis accuracy. The employed data include the digital elevation model (DEM), soil map, geology map, satellite images, and daily precipitation records. Accordingly, the hydrologic soil groups (HSG), the land use/land cover (LULC), and curve number (CN) were determined for each watershed in the study area. The results of this analysis show that the study area can be delineated into 40 watersheds with a total area of 8500 km². Furthermore, the dominant HSG is group D, which represents about 71% of the total area. The LULC maps indicate four major land types in the entire study area: urban, barren land, agricultural land, and roads. The CN of the study area ranges from 64 to 98, while the weighted CN is 92 for the city. The rainfall-runoff analysis shows that the area has a high and very high daily runoff (35–50 and >?50 mm, respectively). Therefore, in this case, the runoff leads to flooding, especially in the urban area and agricultural lands.     

床面形态驱动下潜流交换试验

为揭示河床形态特征引起的潜流交换规律,构建循环式水槽装置,通过NaCl示踪对比分析了4种河床地形驱动下的潜流交换规律,并基于扩散理论探讨了潜流交换与地表水水动力及床沙渗透特性之间的关系.结果表明,潜流交换可以发生在平坦河床地形,且交换速率随地形起伏度和雷诺数的增大而增大;在相似的地形条件下,地表流速是影响潜流交换速率的主导因素,地表水深对潜流交换速率影响较弱;此外,分析表明,有效扩散系数与河床特征粒径之间具有2次方幂率函数关系,且与河床渗透系数成正比;交换深度d正比于雷诺数Re的1/2次方.     

缺资料城市洪灾损失率函数构建方法及应用

很多城市缺乏洪灾灾情资料,导致缺少洪灾损失量化的有效手段。为满足城市洪涝日益严峻的风险管理需求,亟需缺灾情资料城市的洪灾损失定量评估方法。提出了"因子变异-动态比拟-目标驱动-情景拟合"的缺灾情资料洪灾损失率函数构建方法:借鉴等比例替代思想,采用多引用对象和多特征指标构建变异比拟因子;建立以变差系数最小为目标的动态比拟方法,形成移植样本矩阵;以Beta分布概率最大为驱动目标,确定水深-损失率拟合序列;设置多拟合情景,以拟合相关系数最大为准则,优选洪灾损失率函数。以郑州市为例,模拟4种土地利用类型的洪灾损失率函数,结果表明,本文提出的缺资料城市洪灾损失率函数构建方法可行,特征组合指标呈现动态变化性,多种函数组合拟合效果最优。     

Scour hole depth prediction around pile groups: review,comparison of existing methods,and proposition of a new approach

Flooding is the most costly natural hazard event worldwide and can severely impact communities, both through economic losses and social disruption. To predict and reduce the flood risk facing a community, a reliable model is needed to estimate the cost of repairing flood-damaged buildings. In this paper, we describe the development and assessment of two models for predicting direct economic losses for single-family residential buildings, based on the experience of the 2013 Boulder, Colorado riverine floods. The first model is based on regression analyses on empirical data from over 3000 residential building damage inspections conducted by the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA). This model enables a probabilistic assessment of loss (in terms of FEMA grants paid to homeowners for post-flood repairs) as a function of key building and flood hazard parameters, considering uncertainties in structural properties, building contents, and damage characteristics at a given flood depth. The second model is an assembly-based prediction of loss considering unit prices for damaged building components to predict mean repair costs borne by the homeowner, which is based on typical Boulder construction practices and local construction and material costs. Comparison of the two proposed models illustrates benefits that arise from each of the two approaches, while also serving to validate both models. These models can be used as predictive tools in the future, in Boulder and other US communities, due to adaptability of the model for other context, and similarities in home characteristics across the country. The assembly-based model quantifies the difference between the FEMA grants and true losses, providing a quantification of out-of-pocket homeowner expenses.     

The effects of removing bed materials on flow velocity (case study: Zaremrood River, Iran)

Nowadays, in parts of Iran, rivers and flood plains are being used as sand and silt mines, and the removal of river bed materials is performed without studying its effects on hydraulic behavior. On the other hand, the flood plain lands are in danger of floods and bank erosion. Zaremrood River in Tajan watershed due to removal of river bed material, two planes of before and after removal with scale of 1:1,000, has been used as basic data. The field investigation was emphasized on the end part of Zaremrood with a length of 5 km and starts from Ghandikola village to Ahoodasht Bridge. Using total station and field observations, the characteristics of reaches and cross sections of right bank, left bank, and main bed of river are written separately. Using software of HEC-RAS, ArcView 3.2, and extension HEC-GeoRAS, the flood zoning with different return periods to investigate water velocity and its changes, geometrical simulation of the bed, sides and flood way of rivers, and then by entering the results of HEC-GeoRAS into hydraulic software HEC-RAS for two before and after planes have been performed, and flow velocity was analyzed for three return periods of 10, 50, and 100 years. The results of this research showed that the velocities due to removal for floods with different return periods have increased, whereas water height and level during removal period have decreased.     

粗糙岩石裂隙低速非线性渗流模型及试验验证

岩体粗糙裂隙非线性渗透特性是岩体渗流研究的重要课题。针对Javadi所提T模型中亚裂隙中速度恒定这一假设的不足,将其修正为速度与开度成正比的经验关系,考虑黏性压降和局部压降,提出了新的低速下粗糙裂隙非线性渗流模型（MT模型）。为了验证MT模型的正确性,对5种不同粗糙裂隙进行了低流量的饱和渗流试验,将现有模型及MT模型的预测值与试验结果进行对比,分析表明MT模型与试验结果更为吻合,且模型适用于粗糙性系数JRC≤10的低粗糙度裂隙,雷诺数小于1 000的低流速情况。对MT模型进行分析,初步揭露了粗糙裂隙的非线性渗流机制,即小雷诺数下的Darcy流和大雷诺数下的Forchheimer流,并用临界雷诺数区分两种流动行为。分析了裂隙的粗糙度和开度对非线性渗流特性的影响,表明裂隙越粗糙或开度越小,则临界雷诺数越小,非线性作用将越强。提出了临界雷诺数与水力开度和绝对粗糙度的经验关系式,同时指出该关系式适用于JRC≤10的低粗糙度裂隙。     

An integrated flood risk assessment model for property insurance industry in Taiwan

Taiwan is located in an area affected by Northwest Pacific typhoons, which are also one of the most important sources of rainfall to the island. Unfortunately, the abundant rainfall brought by typhoons frequently produces hazards. In recent years, typhoons and floods have caused serious damage, especially Typhoon Morakot in 2009. In this study, a probabilistic model is developed based on historical events which can be used to assess flood risk in Taiwan. There are 4 separate modules in this model, including a rainfall event module, a hydraulic module, a vulnerability module, and a financial loss module. Local data obtained from the Taiwan government are used to construct this model. Historical rainfall data for typhoon and flood events that have occurred since 1960, obtained from the Central Weather Bureau, are used for computing the maximum daily rainfall for each basin. In addition, the latest flood maps from the Water Resources Agency are collected to assess the probable inundation depth. A case study using the local data is carried out. Assessment is made to predict possible economic loss from different financial perspectives such as the total loss, insured loss, and loss exceeding probabilities. The assessment results can be used as a reference for making effective flood risk management strategies in Taiwan.     

An overview of flood actions on buildings

This paper presents an overview of flood characteristics with respect to their applicability for estimating and analysing direct flood damage to buildings. The approach taken is to define “flood actions” as acts which a flood could directly do to a building, potentially causing damage or failure. This definition expands the traditional approach of analysing flood damage to buildings which often focuses on damage from slow-rise flood depth.

Flood actions may be energy transfers, forces, pressures, or the consequences of water or contaminant contact. This paper defines and categorises flood actions on buildings, indicating methods of quantification. The actions are classified in the following categories with respect to relative importance for flood damage assessment.

• High relevance and relatively predictable: Lateral pressure from water depth differential between the inside and outside of a building, lateral pressure from water velocity, and water contact due to slow-rise depth.

• Relevance varies and relatively predictable: Buoyancy.

• Relevance varies and difficult predictability: Capillary rise, erosion, debris, turbulence, waves, other velocity actions, other chemical actions, nuclear actions, and biological actions.

Due to the highly localised effects of some of the flood actions in the third category, coupled with their potentially significant impact, prediction of their impact on overall flood damage may be challenging. Awareness of their existence assists in developing an understanding of the uncertainties in flood damage estimation and analysis and in indicating areas which new research should tackle. In particular, work is needed in order to fully understand the physical processes by which flood damage arises and, hence, how flood damage may be prevented.     

Application of Monte Carlo simulation technique for flood estimation for two catchments in New South Wales,Australia

The currently adopted rainfall-based design flood estimation method in Australia, known as design event approach (DEA), has a flaw that is widely criticized by the hydrologists. The DEA is based on the assumption that a rainfall depth of a certain frequency can be transformed to a flood peak of the same frequency by adopting the ‘representative values’ of other model input variables, such as temporal patterns and losses. To overcome the limitation associated with the DEA, this paper develops stochastic model inputs to apply Monte Carlo simulation technique (MCST) for design flood estimation. This uses data from 86 pluviograph stations and six catchments from eastern New South Wales (NSW), Australia, to regionalize the distributions of various input variables (e.g., rainfall duration, inter-event duration, intensity and temporal patterns and loss and routing characteristics) to simulate thousands of flood hydrographs using a nonlinear runoff routing model. The regionalized stochastic inputs are then applied with the MCST to two catchments in eastern NSW. The results indicate that the developed MCST provide more accurate flood quantile estimates than the DEA for the two test catchments. The particular advantage of the new MCST and stochastic design input variables is that it reduces the subjectivity in the selection of model input values in flood modeling. The developed MCST can be adapted to other parts of Australia and other countries.     

Assessment on agricultural drought vulnerability in the Yellow River basin based on a fuzzy clustering iterative model

Drought is one of the major natural disasters occurring in China and causes severe impacts on agricultural production and food security. Therefore, agricultural drought vulnerability assessment has an important significance for reducing regional agricultural drought losses and drought disaster risks. In view of agricultural drought vulnerability assessment with the characteristics of multiple factors and uncertainty, we applied the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation framework to agricultural drought vulnerability model. The agricultural drought vulnerability assessment model was constructed based on the multi-layer and multi-index fuzzy clustering iterative method, which can better reveal the drought vulnerability (including sensitivity and adaptation capacity). Furthermore, the cycle iterative algorithm was used to obtain the optimal index weight vector of a given accuracy by setting the objective function. It provides a new approach to weight determination of agricultural drought vulnerability assessment. In this study, agricultural drought vulnerability of 65 cities (as well as leagues and states) in the Yellow River basin was investigated using a fuzzy clustering iterative model and visualized by using GIS technique. The results showed clear differences and regularities among the spatial distribution of agricultural drought vulnerability of different regions. A large number of the regions in the basin consisted of those exhibiting high to very high vulnerability and were mainly distributed throughout Qinghai, Gansu, northern Shaanxi, and southern Shanxi, accounting for 46 % of the total assessment units. However, the regions exhibiting very high vulnerability were not significantly affected by droughts. Most of the regions exhibiting moderate vulnerability (21.5 % of the assessment units) were mainly concentrated among agricultural irrigation areas, where agriculture is highly sensitive to droughts, and drought occurrence in these regions will likely cause heavy losses in the future. The regions exhibiting slight to low vulnerability were relatively concentrated, accounting for 32.3 % of the assessment units, and were mainly distributed in the plains of the lower reaches of the Yellow River, where the economy was rather well developed and the agricultural production conditions were relatively stronger.