GIS-based multi-criteria earthquake hazards evaluation using analytic hierarchy process for a nuclear power plant site,west Alexandria,Egypt

Nuclear power plants are designed to prevent the hazardous effects of the earthquakes and any external events to keep the safety of the plant. Ninety-one shallow seismic refraction profiles were performed to determine shear wave velocity of the engineering layers at the site of El Dabaa area that is situated to the northern coastline of Egypt for seismic hazard microzonation evaluation according to hazard index values. A microzonation is a procedure of delineating an area into individual zones having different ranks of numerous seismic hazards. This will aid in classifying areas of high seismic risk which is vigorous for industrial design of nuclear structures. The site response analysis requires the characterization of subsurface materials considering local subsurface profiles of the site. Site classification of the area under investigation was undertaken using P- and S-waves and available borehole data. The studied nuclear power plant site has been characterized as per NEHRP site classification using an average velocity of transverse wave (V _s ³⁰ ) of depth 30 m which acquired from seismic survey. This site was categorized into two site classes: the major one is “site class B,” and the minor one is “site class A.” The attenuation coefficient, the damping ratio and the liquefaction potential are geotechnical parameters which were derived from P- and S-waves, and have their major effects on the seismic hazard contribution. 1D ground response analysis was carried out in the places of seismic profiles inside the site for estimating the amount of ground quaking using peak ground acceleration (PGA), site amplification, predominant frequency and spectral accelerations on the surface of ground by the DEEPSOIL software package. Seven factors (criteria) deliberated to assess the earthquake hazard index map are: (1) the peak ground acceleration at the bedrock, (2) the amplification of the site, (3) the liquefaction potential, (4) the main frequency of the earthquake signal, (5) the average V _s of the first 30 m from the ground surface, (6) the depth to the groundwater and (7) the depth to the bedrock. These features were exemplified in normalized maps after uniting them to 0–1 scores according to some criteria by the minimum and maximum values as linear scaling points. Multi-criteria evaluation is an application of multi-criteria decision analysis theory that used for developing a seismic hazard index map for a nuclear power plant site at El Dabaa area in ArcGIS 10.1 software. Two models of decision making were used in this work for seismic hazard microzonation. The analytic hierarchy process model was applied to conduct the relative weights of the criteria by pairwise comparison using Expert Choice Software. An earthquake hazard index map was combined using Weighted Linear Combination model of the raster weighted overlay tool of ArcGIS 10.1. The results indicated that most of the study site of the nuclear power plant is a region of low to moderate hazard; its values are ranging between 0.2 and 0.4.     

Seismic microzonation of a nuclear power plant site with detailed geotechnical,geophysical and site effect studies

This paper highlights the seismic microzonation carried out for a nuclear power plant site. Nuclear power plants are considered to be one of the most important and critical structures designed to withstand all natural disasters. Seismic microzonation is a process of demarcating a region into individual areas having different levels of various seismic hazards. This will help in identifying regions having high seismic hazard which is vital for engineering design and land-use planning. The main objective of this paper is to carry out the seismic microzonation of a nuclear power plant site situated in the east coast of South India, based on the spatial distribution of the hazard index value. The hazard index represents the consolidated effect of all major earthquake hazards and hazard influencing parameters. The present work will provide new directions for assessing the seismic hazards of new power plant sites in the country. Major seismic hazards considered for the evaluation of the hazard index are (1) intensity of ground shaking at bedrock, (2) site amplification, (3) liquefaction potential and (4) the predominant frequency of the earthquake motion at the surface. The intensity of ground shaking in terms of peak horizontal acceleration (PHA) was estimated for the study area using both deterministic and probabilistic approaches with logic tree methodology. The site characterization of the study area has been carried out using the multichannel analysis of surface waves test and available borehole data. One-dimensional ground response analysis was carried out at major locations within the study area for evaluating PHA and spectral accelerations at the ground surface. Based on the standard penetration test data, deterministic as well as probabilistic liquefaction hazard analysis has been carried out for the entire study area. Finally, all the major earthquake hazards estimated above, and other significant parameters representing local geology were integrated using the analytic hierarchy process and hazard index map for the study area was prepared. Maps showing the spatial variation of seismic hazards (intensity of ground shaking, liquefaction potential and predominant frequency) and hazard index are presented in this work.     

Probabilistic evaluation of seismic soil liquefaction potential based on SPT data

The performance-based liquefaction potential analysis was carried out in the present study to estimate the liquefaction return period for Bangalore, India, through a probabilistic approach. In this approach, the entire range of peak ground acceleration (PGA) and earthquake magnitudes was used in the evaluation of liquefaction return period. The seismic hazard analysis for the study area was done using probabilistic approach to evaluate the peak horizontal acceleration at bed rock level. Based on the results of the multichannel analysis of surface wave, it was found that the study area belonged to site class D. The PGA values for the study area were evaluated for site class D by considering the local site effects. The soil resistance for the study area was characterized using the standard penetration test (SPT) values obtained from 450 boreholes. These SPT data along with the PGA values obtained from the probabilistic seismic hazard analysis were used to evaluate the liquefaction return period for the study area. The contour plot showing the spatial variation of factor of safety against liquefaction and the corrected SPT values required for preventing liquefaction for a return period of 475 years at depths of 3 and 6 m are presented in this paper. The entire process of liquefaction potential evaluation, starting from collection of earthquake data, identifying the seismic sources, evaluation of seismic hazard and the assessment of liquefaction return period were carried out, and the entire analysis was done based on the probabilistic approach.     

Seismic hazard assessment of Chennai city considering local site effects

Chennai city suffered moderate tremors during the 2001 Bhuj and Pondicherry earthquakes and the 2004 Sumatra earthquake. After the Bhuj earthquake, Indian Standard IS: 1893 was revised and Chennai city was upgraded from zone II to zone III which leads to a substantial increase of the design ground motion parameters. Therefore, a comprehensive study is carried out to assess the seismic hazard of Chennai city based on a deterministic approach. The seismicity and seismotectonic details within a 100 km radius of the study area have been considered. The one-dimensional ground response analysis was carried out for 38 representative sites by the equivalent linear method using the SHAKE91 program to estimate the ground motion parameters considering the local site effects. The shear wave velocity profile was inferred from the corrected blow counts and it was verified with the Multichannel Analysis of Surface Wave (MASW) test performed for a representative site. The seismic hazard is represented in terms of characteristic site period and Spectral Acceleration Ratio (SAR) contours for the entire city. It is found that structures with low natural period undergo significant amplification mostly in the central and southern parts of Chennai city due to the presence of deep soil sites with clayey or sandy deposits and the remaining parts undergo marginal amplification.     

An effective procedure for seismic hazard analysis including nonlinear soil response

This paper presents probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) of Tehran, Iran, accounting the effect of nonlinear soil response. It is well-known that soil nonlinearity and its accurate prediction could play important role in seismic hazard study. For this purpose, two different approaches have been carried out for predicting the hazard curves by (1) applying site modifications to the ground motion prediction equation based on generic site classes and use of constant coefficients (2) using a close-form solution that modifies the hazard results at the rock level. Also, efficiency of the Monte Carlo method in modeling of amplification function for the six selected sites in the study area was examined. Results showed important effect of nonlinear soil response mainly for frequencies lower than 8?Hz, which should be considered properly in hazard estimation. As an interesting subject, influence of soil plasticity index (PI) on hazard estimation of clayey sites including the nonlinear soil response was evaluated.     

Site-specific earthquake response study for hazard assessment in Kolkata city,India

The assessment of local site effects on seismic ground motions is of great importance in earthquake engineering practice. Several destructive earthquakes in the past have demonstrated that the amplification of ground motion and associated damage to structures due to local site conditions is a significant consideration in earthquake hazard analysis. A recent paper published in this journal highlights the hazard posed by earthquakes in the megacity of Kolkata in India due to its seismic and geological settings. The seismic hazard assessment study speculates that the deep alluvial deposit in the city may increase the seismic hazard probably due to the amplification of the seismic energies. This paper focuses on the seismic response studies of the various soil strata (i.e. for local subsurface conditions) obtained from various construction sites in the city for predicted earthquake. It is very well recognized that site response studies (a part of seismic microhazard zonation for urban areas) are the first step towards performance-based foundation design or seismic risk analysis and mitigation strategy. One of the problems for carrying out site-specific study in Kolkata is the lack of recorded strong motion data in the city. Hence, this paper outlines a methodology to carry out site-specific study, where no strong motion data or seismic data are available. The methodology uses wavelet-based spectrum compatibility approach to generate synthetic earthquake motions and equivalent linear method for seismic site response analysis. The Mega City of Kolkata has been considered to explain the methodology. Seismic hazard zonation map by the Bureau of Indian Standards classifies the City of Kolkata as moderate seismic zone (Zone III) with a zone factor 0.16. On the other hand, GSHAP(Global Seismic Hazard Assessment Program) map which is based on 10% probability of exceedance in 50 years specifies a maximum peak ground acceleration (PGA) of 1.6 m/s² (0.163 g) for this region. In the present study, the seismic response has been carried out based on GSHAP. The results of the analysis indicate the amplification of ground motion in the range of 4.46–4.82 with the fundamental period ranging from 0.81 to 1.17 s. Furthermore, the maximum spectral accelerations vary in the range of 0.78–0.95 g.     

Seismic microzonation of Bangalore,India

In the present study, an attempt has been made to evaluate the seismic hazard considering local site effects by carrying out detailed geotechnical and geophysical site characterization in Bangalore, India to develop microzonation maps. An area of 220 km², encompassing Bangalore Mahanagara Palike (BMP) has been chosen as the study area. Seismic hazard analysis and microzonation of Bangalore are addressed in three parts: in the first part, estimation of seismic hazard is done using seismotectonic and geological information. Second part deals with site characterization using geotechnical and shallow geophysical techniques. In the last part, local site effects are assessed by carrying out one-dimensional (1-D) ground response analysis (using the program SHAKE2000) using both standard penetration test (SPT) data and shear wave velocity data from multichannel analysis of surface wave (MASW) survey. Further, field experiments using microtremor studies have also been carried out for evaluation of predominant frequency of the soil columns. The same has been assessed using 1-D ground response analysis and compared with microtremor results. Further, the Seed and Idriss simplified approach has been adopted to evaluate the soil liquefaction susceptibility and liquefaction resistance assessment. Microzonation maps have been prepared with a scale of 1:20,000. The detailed methodology, along with experimental details, collated data, results and maps are presented in this paper.     

A seismic landslide hazard analysis with topographic effect,a case study in the 99 Peaks region,Central Taiwan

It has been known that ground motion amplitude will be amplified at mountaintops; however, such topographic effects are not included in conventional landslide hazard models. In this study, a modified procedure that considers the topographic effects is proposed to analyze the seismic landslide hazard. The topographic effect is estimated by back analysis. First, a 3D dynamic numerical model with irregular topography is constructed. The theoretical topographic amplification factors are derived from the dynamic numerical model. The ground motion record is regarded as the reference motion in the plane area. By combining the topographic amplification factors with the reference motions, the amplified acceleration time history and amplified seismic intensity parameters are obtained. Newmark’s displacement model is chosen to perform the seismic landslide hazard analysis. By combining the regression equation and the seismic parameter of peak ground acceleration and Arias intensity, the Newmark’s displacement distribution is generated. Subsequently, the calculated Newmark’s displacement maps are transformed to the hazard maps. The landslide hazard maps of the 99 Peaks region, Central Taiwan are evaluated. The actual landslide inventory maps triggered by the 21 September 1999, Chi-Chi earthquake are compared with the calculated hazard maps. Relative to the conventional procedure, the results show that the proposed procedures, which include the topographic effect can obtain a better result for seismic landslide hazard analysis. Electronic supplementary material  The online version of this article (doi:) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.     

Assessment of seismic hazard and liquefaction potential of Gujarat based on probabilistic approaches

Gujarat is one of the fastest-growing states of India with high industrial activities coming up in major cities of the state. It is indispensable to analyse seismic hazard as the region is considered to be most seismically active in stable continental region of India. The Bhuj earthquake of 2001 has caused extensive damage in terms of causality and economic loss. In the present study, the seismic hazard of Gujarat evaluated using a probabilistic approach with the use of logic tree framework that minimizes the uncertainties in hazard assessment. The peak horizontal acceleration (PHA) and spectral acceleration (Sa) values were evaluated for 10 and 2?% probability of exceedance in 50?years. Two important geotechnical effects of earthquakes, site amplification and liquefaction, are also evaluated, considering site characterization based on site classes. The liquefaction return period for the entire state of Gujarat is evaluated using a performance-based approach. The maps of PHA and PGA values prepared in this study are very useful for seismic hazard mitigation of the region in future.     

Local seismic hazard assessment in areas of weak to moderate seismicity—case study from Eastern Germany

Generally the seismic hazard of an area of interest is considered independent of time. However, its seismic risk or vulnerability, respectively, increases with the population and developing state of economy of the area. Therefore, many areas of moderate seismic hazard gain increasing importance with respect to seismic hazard and risk analysis. However, these areas mostly have a weak earthquake database, i.e., they are characterised by relative low seismicity and uncertain information concerning historical earthquakes. In a case study for Eastern Thuringia (Germany), acting as example for similar places in the world, seismic hazard is estimated using the probabilistic approach. Because of the lack of earthquakes occurring in the recent past, mainly historical earthquakes have to be used. But for these the actual earthquake sources or active faults, needed for the analysis, are imprecisely known. Therefore, the earthquake locations are represented by areal sources, a common practice. The definition of these sources is performed carefully, because their geometrical shape and size (apart from the earthquake occurrence model) influence the results significantly. Using analysis tools such as density maps of earthquake epicentres, seismic strain and energy release support this. Oversizing of areal sources leads to underestimation of seismic hazard and should therefore be avoided. Large location errors of historical earthquakes on the other hand are represented by several alternative areal sources with final superimposition of the different results. In a very similar way information known from macroseismic observations interpreted as source rather than as site effects are taken into account in order to achieve a seismic hazard assessment as realistic as possible. In very local cases the meaning of source effects exceeds those of site effects very likely. The influence of attenuation parameter variations on the result of estimated local seismic hazard is relatively low. Generally, the results obtained by the seismic hazard assessment coincide well with macroseismic observations from the thoroughly investigated largest earthquake in the region.     

First Order Seismic Microzonation of Delhi,India Using Geographic Information System (GIS)

A first order seismic microzonation map of Delhi is prepared using five thematic layers viz., Peak Ground Acceleration (PGA) contour, different soil types at 6 m depth, geology, groundwater fluctuation and bedrock depth, integrated on GIS platform. The integration is performed following a pair-wise comparison of Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP), wherein each thematic map is assigned weight in the 5-1 scale: depending on its contribution towards the seismic hazard. Following the AHP, the weightage assigned to each theme are: PGA (0.333), soil (0.266), geology (0.20), groundwater (0.133) and bedrock depth (0.066). The thematic vector layers are overlaid and integrated using GIS. On the microzonation theme, the Delhi region has been classified into four broad zones of vulnerability to the seismic hazard. They are very high (> 52%), high (38–52%), moderate (23–38%) and less ( < 23%) zones of seismic hazard. The “very high” seismic hazard zone is observed where the maximum PGA varies from 140 to 210 gal for a finite source model of M_w 8.5 in the central seismic gap. A site amplification study from local and regional earthquakes for Delhi region using Delhi Telemetry Network data shows a steeper site response gradient in the eastern side of the Yamuna fluvial deposits at 1.5 Hz. The ‘high’ seismic hazard zone occupies most of the study area where the PGA value ranges from 90 to 140 gal. The ‘moderate’ seismic hazard zone occurs on either side of the Delhi ridge with PGA value varying from 60 to 90 gal. The ‘less’ seismic hazard zone occurs in small patches distributed along the study area with the PGA value less than 60 gal. Site response studies, PGA distribution and destruction pattern of the Chamoli earthquake greatly corroborate the seismic hazard zones estimated through microzonation on GIS platform and also establishes the methodology incorporated in this study.     

Multiple source and attenuation relationships for evaluation of deterministic seismic hazard: logic tree approach considering local site effects

The most important seismic hazard parameters required to demarcate seismic zones are the peak horizontal acceleration (PHA) and spectral acceleration (SA). The two approaches for evaluation of seismic hazard are the probabilistic seismic hazard analysis and the deterministic seismic hazard analysis (DSHA). The present study evaluates the seismic hazard of the South Indian Peninsular region based on the DSHA methodology. In order to consider the epistemic uncertainties in a better manner, a logic tree approach was adopted in the evaluation of seismic hazard. Two types of seismic sources and three different attenuation relations were used in the analysis. The spatial variation of PHA (mean and 84th percentile values) and SA values for 1 Hz and 10 Hz at bedrock level (84th percentile values) for the entire study area were evaluated and the results are presented here. The surface level peak ground acceleration (PGA) values will be different from that of the bedrock level values due to the local site conditions. The PGA values at ground surface level were evaluated for four different National Earthquake Hazard Reduction Program site classes by considering the non-linear site response of different soil types. The response spectra for important cities in South India were also prepared using the deterministic approach and the results are presented in this paper.     

Site Response as a Function of Near-Surface Geology in the South Iceland Seismic Zone

Site response measurements provide information on the amplification of ground motions generated by local conditions. Recent studies of large destructive earthquakes have shown that damage during the earthquakes are often caused by the amplification of seismic waves in near-surface sedimentary layers. The estimation of site response is therefore critical, in order to evaluate the true seismic hazard potential of a given area. We investigated local site amplifications in the South Iceland Seismic Zone (SISZ). Nine digital seismographs were deployed, temporarily, in an area of approximately 400 km2, in the westernmost part of the SISZ. Among the 90 events recorded, 15 were used in this study, including a magnitude 3.1 (ML) event and selected aftershocks, which occurred in the northern outskirts of the village Hveragerdi. Single Station Spectral Ratios (SSSR) of the recorded earthquakes revealed some of the effects of local site conditions. Spectral amplification factors of 2–5 on average, can be expected in the SIL area, depending on the sediment type and thickness. Higher site amplifications occur in the southern part of the study region, where the thickest sedimentary cover is found. Spectral amplification, related to topographical effects, is observed at the bedrock reference station, Bjarnastadir. Standard Spectral Ratios (SSR), with respect to the bedrock reference station, Bjarnastadir, were also calculated for some stations, in order to compare the two spectral ratio results. The two methods show a good correlation at some stations, whereas at others they vary considerably. The comparison between the earthquake and ambient noise data, on the other hand, gave better correlation when the SSSR method is used.     

Assessment of potential seismic hazard and site effect in Antakya (Hatay Province), SE Turkey

Antakya city is at risk because of strong earthquakes occurring in the area, and different soil conditions that can produce variation of the ground motion amplification. Microzonation of cities provides a basis for site-specific hazard analysis in urban settlements. In particular, seismic microzonation can be provided by means of detailed seismic assessment of the area, including earthquake recordings and geological studies. In this paper, we propose a preliminary microzonation map for the city of Antakya, based on the variation of the dominant periods and shear velocities of the sediments covering the area. The periods are retrieved from microtremor measurements conducted at 69 sites, using the horizontal-to-vertical spectral ratio technique. The results of microtremor analysis were compared with data obtained from refraction microtremor (ReMi) measurements at four profiles crossing the studied area. According to the classification of dominant periods, Antakya city can be divided into five zones, probably prone to different levels of seismic hazard. The shorter natural periods are in inner Antakya and both the sides of Asi River (i.e., northern and southern parts). The eastern and western parts of Antakya have maximum dominant periods. The V _s ³⁰ values were calculated by using the ReMi method along the profiles. Antakya city has V _s ³⁰ values in the range of category C of the national earthquake hazard reduction programme site classification.     

A newly developed seismic microzonation model of Erbaa (Tokat, Turkey) located on seismically active eastern segment of the North Anatolian Fault Zone (NAFZ)

A methodology to model seismic microzonation maps is required in the hazard mitigation decision plans of the earthquake prone areas. The stage of disaster preparedness for new residential places is of great importance for detailed seismic microzonation models. The effects of local geological and geotechnical site conditions were considered in order to establish site characterization as the initial stage of the models in this study. Dynamic soil properties based on the empirical correlations between shear wave velocity (V _s) and standard penetration test blow counts were taken into account in order to define representative soil profiles extending down to the engineering bedrock. One-dimensional site response analyses were performed to analyze earthquake characteristics on the ground surface. The layers for soil classification, geology, depth to groundwater level, amplification, distance to fault, slope and aspect, and liquefaction-induced ground deformation potential of the study area were prepared in seismic microzonation models. The study area, Erbaa, is placed along the seismically active North Anatolian Fault Zone. Final seismic microzonation map of the study area was evaluated applying different GIS-based Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis (MCDA) techniques. Two of the MCDA techniques, simple additive weighting and analytical hierarchical process (AHP), are considered during the evaluation step of the final seismic microzonation map. The comparison is made in order to distinguish two different maps based on these MCDA techniques. Eventually, AHP-based seismic microzonation map is more preferable for the seismic design purposes in this study.     

Dangerous ice phenomena on the lowland rivers of European Russia

The site amplification functions at 48 sites of NCR have been estimated in this study using the waveforms of locally recorded 23 earthquakes. Due to the absence of a suitable reference site in the region, the widely used horizontal-to-vertical spectral ratio (HVSR) technique has been used for this purpose. The maps showing the spatial distribution of predominant frequencies and the site amplifications at different frequencies corresponding to the natural frequencies of the different-storey buildings have been presented. The predominant frequencies in general are found to be in the range 2.5–7.5 Hz with an average of 4.4 Hz for the region having older alluvium sediments and in the range 1.1–6.4 Hz with an average of 3.3 Hz for the region with the younger alluvium deposits. The average value of the site amplifications for the frequency band 3.0–10.0 Hz is in the range 2.0–5.3 for the sites with significant soil cover, while the spectral amplification corresponding to the predominant frequency varies from 2.5 to 7.5 at most of the sites. The spectral amplification level lies in the range 2.0–3.0 for the sites with less or no sediment cover. The spectral amplification levels presented for the different-storey buildings may be used for the mitigation of seismic hazard in the region. The estimated site amplification functions may be used in the simulation of the site-specific strong ground motions and therefore useful for the evaluation of seismic hazard of a region.     

A procedure to estimate the seismic hazard in an urban area: an application to Acireale (Eastern Sicily)

A “standard procedure” to characterize the seismic hazard of a given area was proposed. It is based on a multidisciplinary approach implying: (1) the knowledge of the seismic history of the area; (2) detailed geological surveys; (3)seismic noise measurements; (4) simulations of earthquake scenarios. The downtown of Acireale, a typical baroque town located on Eastern Sicily, was chosen as the “test area”. A catalog of the local seismogenic faults (able to generate earthquakes in historical times) has been compiled, as well as a seismic catalog for the effects of both local and regional earthquakes. The analysis of both catalogs allowed us to make the following conclusions: (1) the most important seismogenic faults affecting the Acireale municipality do not affect the downtown, while the related local earthquakes attenuate their energy (and intensity) in short (few km) distances; (2) the highest seismic intensity (degree X) experienced in Acireale downtown was caused by the 1693 regional earthquake; (3) over the last 140 years, the downtown has experienced the highest intensity value of VII only once, while six times the intensity was VI. On the whole, this implies a moderate seismic hazard. The estimation of the seismic hazard has been also approached by the experimental method of recording seismic noise. Measurements have been performed at seven different sites, where drills gave detailed information on the shallow subsurface geology to obtain HV (horizontal/vertical) spectral ratios. On the whole, the highest site amplification factor was moderate (about 7). A further investigation based on synthetic seismograms (and spectra) produced by simulating two given earthquake scenarios was also performed. The two scenarios are, respectively, representative of the largest expected earthquake in the area (the 1693 shock) and of a moderate (magnitude ca. 5.5) local earthquake (as the 1818 one). Moderate to strong locally expected accelerations were evidenced.     

Development and application of a GIS-based tool for earthquake-induced hazard prediction

An integrated GIS-based tool (GTIS) was constructed to estimate site effects related to the earthquake hazards in the Gyeongju area of Korea. To build the GTIS for the study area, intensive site investigations and geotechnical data collections were performed and a walk-over site survey was additionally carried out to acquire surface geo-knowledge data in accordance with the procedure developed to build the GTIS. For practical applications of the GTIS used to estimate the site effects associated with the amplification of ground motion, seismic microzoning maps of the characteristic site period and the mean shear wave velocity to a depth of 30 m were created and presented as a regional synthetic strategy addressing earthquake-induced hazards. Additionally, based on one-dimensional site response analyses, various seismic microzoning maps for short- and mid-period amplification potentials were created for the study area. Case studies of seismic microzonations in the Gyeongju area verified the usefulness of the GTIS for predicting seismic hazards in the region.     

汶川地震远场黄土场地地震动场地放大效应机制研究

通过汶川地震震后科学考察发现,汶川地震局部场地的震害和地震动放大效应明显,地震对甘肃省境内远离震中的黄土地区造成了较为严重的破坏。在此基础上,结合钻孔波速测试,运用二维等价线性时程响应动分析法对甘肃省平凉市典型黄土塬进行了地震动力响应计算,分析了该地区局部场地条件对地震动放大效应的影响。研究发现,黄土塬具有地震动放大效应,随着塬高的增加,加速度、速度、位移均出现放大效应;随着地震动在黄土覆盖层中的传递,卓越频率向低频移动,高频成分被吸收,加速度反应谱中长周期分量逐渐增大。数值计算结果与实际震害基本吻合,其结果对黄土地区进行合理的抗震设防具有一定的科学意义。     

The Role of Data Processing and Uncertainty Management in Seismic Hazard Evaluations: Insights from Estimates in the Garfagnana–Lunigiana Area (Northern Italy)

Significantly different estimates of seismic hazard may result for the same site as aneffect of different methodological choices underlying the adopted procedures. In orderto explore this aspect, two approaches devoted to probabilistic seismic hazard assessment are considered for the evaluation of hazard in a seismic area in Northern Italy. In particular, results of a standard procedure are compared with those obtained by an innovative approach. Fundamental features of this last methodology are the extensive use of intensity data relative to seismic effects observed at the site of interest during past earthquakes and the basic role attributed to the parameterisation of uncertainty which affects the considered pieces ofinformation. The analysis indicates that the new approach supplies results significantlydifferent from those obtained from standard methodology and that these differences strongly depend on strategies adopted for data processing and for the management of uncertainties which affect input parameters.