甘肃气象灾害与气候变化问题的初步研究

根据气象资料和社会经济资料,分析了甘肃省气象灾害特征及其对甘肃社会经济的影响,揭示了近50 a年甘肃气候变化的客观事实,探讨了在气候变暖背景下甘肃自然生态系统的变化。针对甘肃社会经济可持续发展中的气象与生态问题,提出了适应对策。     

气候变化及其对策

气候变化及其对策席北风赵丁山（洪洞县气象局０３１６００）气候资源是一种相对稳定的农业资源，气候变化、气象灾害对农业生产的危害极大。尤其象洪洞这样的农业大县，每年气象灾害所造成的损失均在千万元以上，为此需要认真对待。１洪洞气候的基本特点洪洞地处欧亚大陆...     

北疆地区公众对气候变化认知与适应的性别差异分析

针对位于"一带一路"重点区域的北疆地区民众对气候变化的认知与适应行为开展调查研究,分析当地居民对气候变化的感知和适应情况.结果表明:公众对气候变化的感知较为清晰,女性对气候变化及气象灾害的关注和相对感知强度更高.在适应气候变化引起的干旱缺水方面,"修水库"等基础设施建设的认可度最高,除此之外,男性更倾向于"推广喷灌、滴...     

印度应对气候变化对策

1印度应对气候变化概况 （1）人口庞大,贫困人口多,发展任务繁重。印度是世界上第二大发展中国家,是世界应对气候变化问题“七十七国集团”的主要成员国。印度独立以来,人口急剧增加,成为严重影响印度社会经济发展的一个基本因素。1947年,印度人口3．34亿,2000年突破10亿,年增长高达1．4％。     

小兴安岭地区农业气象灾害的特点及防御对策

小兴安岭地区农业气象灾害的特点及防御对策陈道荣，戚福祥，高亚军，王国林（黑龙江省北安农场局气象台，１６４０９５）小兴安岭地区位于东北的北部，是国家重要的商品粮基地。由于热量不足和季风气候的不稳定性，常常带来旱涝、低温、霜冻、冰雹、大风等自然灾害，严重...     

鞍山地区气候变化及其对农业的影响

应用鞍山1951～1999年的气温、降水、日照资料进行统计分析 ,归纳出鞍山近 50a气候呈逐渐变暖的趋势 ,特别是20世纪80年代以来尤为明显 ,而降水则有逐年减少的趋势 ;分析了气候变化对农业生产的影响 ,提出了相应的应对措施     

气候变化对农业生产的影响及其适应

基于国内有关研究,综述了气候变化对我国农业气候资源和农作物种植结构影响的观测事实,分析了气候变化中农业气象灾害时间变化趋势,评述了未来气候变化对农作物生产的可能影响和适应策略.得出:(1)中国大陆(西南地区除外)光温生产潜力呈明显增长趋势,其中北方增幅大干南方,气候变化对不同地区的不同作物的生产潜力影响不同.(2)气温...     

阳城冬小麦生产的气象风险及相应对策

阳城冬小麦生产的气象风险及相应对策王兴申（阳城县气象局０４８１００）冬小麦是阳城的主要农作物之一。党的十一届三中全会以后，麦田面积迅速扩大，小麦生产占着举足轻重的位置，这种情况，分析小麦各生育期的气象风险，对传统和现行的耕作管理方法作出评价，提出相应...     

Modeling Vulnerability and Resilience to Climate Change: A Case Study of India and Indian States

The vulnerability of India and Indian states to climate change was assessed using the Vulnerability-Resilience Indicator Prototype (VRIP). The model was adapted from the global/country version to account for Indian dietary practices and data availability with regard to freshwater resources. Results (scaled to world values) show nine Indian states to be moderately resilient to climate change, principally because of low sulfur emissions and a relatively large percentage of unmanaged land. Six states are more vulnerable than India as a whole, attributable largely to sensitivity to sea storm surges. Analyses of results at the state level (Orissa, and comparisons between Maharashtra and Kerala, and Andhra Pradesh and Himachal Pradesh) demonstrate the value of VRIP analyses used in conjunction with other socio-economic information to address initial questions about the sources of vulnerability in particular places. The modeling framework allows analysts and stakeholders to systematically evaluate individual and sets of indicators and to indicate where the likely vulnerabilities are in the area being assessed.     

Climate Change: A Case Study Over India

Summary A brief account of various causes of climate change in recent decades and climate change trends in the Indian region is presented. It is of great importance to determine the influence of human activities on the likely climate change during recent decades. Local temperature is one of the major climatic elements to record the changes in the atmospheric environment caused by industrialization and urbanization. It is mentioned in the literature that there is either a cooling tendency or cessation of warming after the late 1950s at most of the Indian industrial cities. A case study of Nagpur, a centrally located city in India, is done to understand and the possible cause of cooling. Nagpur is the only city in India for which a long-term record of temperature, for urban (Mayo Hospital) and relatively suburban (Sonegaon Airport) area, is available. The study of the diurnal asymmetry in maximum and minimum temperatures indicates that the role of suspended particulate matter dominates over that of increasing greenhouse gases. Received April 15, 1998     

Impact of Climate Change on Indian Agriculture: A Review

During the recent decade, with the growing recognition of the possibility of climate change and clear evidence of observed changes in climate during 20^th century, an increasing emphasis on food security and its regional impacts has come to forefront of the scientific community. In recent times, the crop simulation models have been used extensively to study the impact of climate change on agricultural production and food security. The output provided by the simulation models can be used to make appropriate crop management decisions and to provide farmers and others with alternative options for their farming system. It is expected that in the coming decades with the increased use of computers, the use of simulation models by farmers and professionals as well as policy and decision makers will increase. In India, substantial work has been done in last decade aimed at understanding the nature and magnitude of change in yield of different crops due to projected climate change. This paper presents an overview of the state of the knowledge of possible effect of the climate variability and change on food grain production in India. An erratum to this article can be found at     

山东省气候变化及农业自然灾害对粮食产量的影响

根据山东省196l～2000年气象与粮食产量资料,利用统计分析方法,分析了气候变化、农业自然灾害对粮食产量的影响。研究表明：①20世纪60年代以来,山东省气候有变暖和变干的趋势,各季节中,变暖趋势最明显的是冬季,变干表现最突出的是夏季;②气温和降水是造成山东省粮食产量波动的主要原因,在“暖干”气候背景下,气温与气候产量为负相关,降水量与气候产量呈较显著的正相关;③农业自然灾害是造成粮食单产产生波动的主要原因之一。     

Numerical Study for Potential Predictability of Short-Term Anomalous Climate Change Caused by E1 Nino

In this paper, the two-layer IAP model with sea surface temperature anomalies in the equatorial central-eastern Pacific is used to investigate potential predictability of global short-term anomalous climate change caused by El Nino via the "switching" experiments. The experimental results show that short-term anomalous climate change in the tropics is mainly caused by instantaneous response of tropical atmosphere to SSTA in the tropics. The effective period of this kind of anomalous climate is shorter and about monthly scale. In the high latitudes, the anomalous climate is mainly caused by the lag response of atmosphere to SSTA in the tropics. The strongest influence appears in the month after a half year when the SSTA in the tropics disappears. Therefore, potential predictability of short-term anomalous climate change may be reached to one year; anomalous climate change in the middle-latitudes is not only affected by instantaneous response to SSTA in the tropics, but also by lag response to that. There     

近20年我国气象灾害损失的初步分析

利用1989—2008年的全国自然灾害灾情资料,采用综合集成评价方法计算出气象灾害损失的综合指数,运用聚类分析法对近20年的气象灾害损失进行定级并分析其随时间的变化。结果显示,20年中前10年气象灾害的损失比较大,后10年损失显著减小;气象灾害导致的人口死亡数在近20年中呈明显的下降趋势;1991、1994、1996、1998年为气象灾害的重灾年。     

塔里木灌区近40年气候变化研究

根据塔里木灌区阿拉尔气象站 1 96 1年 1月～ 1 999年 1 2月的气温及降水资料 ,对塔里木灌区近4 0a的气候变化做了分析 ,分析结果表明 ,近 4 0a塔里木灌区年降水量呈上升趋势 ( 4 .6 0mm/ 1 0a) ,秋季降水量却呈下降趋势 ( -3.4 5mm/ 1 0a) ;年平均气温呈上升趋势 ( 0 .0 6 5℃ / 1 0a) ,冬季变暖的趋势 ( 0 .84 9℃ / 1 0a)远大于夏季变凉的趋势 ( -0 .1 71℃ / 1 0a) ;年极端低温的上升趋势 ( 0 .5 6 9℃ / 1 0a)大于年极端高温的下降趋势 ( -0 .0 95℃ / 1 0a)。可以以 70年代末为界将塔里木灌区气候近 4 0a分为冷、暖两个阶段 ,前为冷期 ,后为暖期     

湖北省应对气候变化的方案分析与政策含义

 应对全球气候变化需要地方采取应对措施。根据湖北省"十一五"规划纲要提出的目标和《中国应对气候变化国家方案》提出的具体任务,通过分析论证气候变化的脆弱性以及经济发展对能源需求的增长,提出了湖北省适应和减缓气候变化的应对方案,并分析了湖北省温室气体排放的3种情景。湖北省作为国家能源和经济格局的组成部分,需要协同国家战略及布局,不仅为湖北省自身,也要为国家的低碳发展做出贡献。     

湖北省应对气候变化的方案分析与政策含义

应对全球气候变化需要地方采取应对措施。根据湖北省"十一五"规划纲要提出的目标和《中国应对气候变化国家方案》提出的具体任务,通过分析论证气候变化的脆弱性以及经济发展对能源需求的增长,提出了湖北省适应和减缓气候变化的应对方案,并分析了湖北省温室气体排放的3种情景。湖北省作为国家能源和经济格局的组成部分,需要协同国家战略及布局,不仅为湖北省自身,也要为国家的低碳发展做出贡献。