Climate Change in the Urals,Russia, Inferred from Borehole Temperature Data

Borehole temperatures in the central and south Urals were analysed for the past ground surface temperature (GST) signal. 31 highquality temperature logs were selected for this purpose and inverted with algorithms based on the generalised least squares theory. The signal to noise ratio was improved by averaging the results of individual borehole inversions. No distinct regional trends were found in the studied region except for some indications of more pronounced warming in the south. The mean GST history (GSTH) was characterised by cooling down to –0.6 °C in the 18th century and subsequent warming to 0.5 °C above the longterm mean at the beginning of this century, and to 1 – 1.5 °C by 1980. The stability of the mean GSTH was tested in dependence on the number of holes used for the averaging. It showed that any subset of 15 holes yielded a GSTH similar to that obtained from the whole set. A surface air temperature (SAT) time series comprising the period 1832 – 1989 was combined from 17 meteorological records. Its least squares warming rate of 1.1 °C per 100 years is somewhat higher than that of the GST (0.7 – 0.8°C/100 years) in the same period.     

Ground Surface Temperature History in Poland in the 16th–20th Centuries Derived from the Inversion of Geothermal Profiles

Ground Surface Temperature (GST) history in Poland was derived from the inversion of temperature-depth profiles in over 20 wells. Temperature histories for the period 1500 A.D. through 1977 A.D. agree well with the instrumental record of the surface-air temperature available for the last two centuries. A statistical correlation of the reconstructed histories (from the well temperature data) with the instrumental record (air temperature) from the homogeneous Warsaw series is high (>0.8). Functional space inversion (FSI) of the temperature data with depth shows that beginning in the early 19th century, temperatures warmed by 0.9 ± 0.1°C following a long period of colder climate before. The last number could be a minimal as higher warming was calculated using a simple model based on surface temperature for the observational period (homogenized Warsaw surface temperature series, Lorenc, 2000) and POM (pre-observational mean; Harris and Chapman, 1998) of –1.53^oC below the 1951–1980 mean temperature level.     

A comparative study of geothermal and meteorological records of climate change in Kamchatka

To reconstruct the recent climate history in Kamchatka, a series of repeated precise temperature logs were performed in a number of boreholes located in a broad east-west strip (between 52 and 54°N) in the central part of Kamchatka west of Petropavlovsk-Kamchatski. Within three years more than 30 temperature logs were performed in 10 holes (one up to six logs per hole) to the depth of up to 400 metres. Measured temperature gradients varied in a broad interval 0 to 60 mK/m and in some holes a sizeable variation in the subsurface temperatures due to advective heat transport by underground water was observed. Measured data were compared with older temperature profiles obtained in the early eighties by Sugrobov and Yanovsky (1993). Even when older data are of poorer precision (accuracy of about 0.1 K), they presented valuable information of the subsurface temperature conditions existing 20–25 years ago. Borehole observations and the inverted ground surface temperature histories (GSTHs) used for the paleoclimate reconstruction were complemented with a detailed survey of meteorological data. Namely, the long-term surface air temperature (SAT) and precipitation records from Petropavlovsk station (in operation since 1890) were used together with similar data from a number of local subsidiary meteo-stations operating in Central Kamchatka since 1950. Regardless of extreme complexity of the local meteorological/climate conditions, diversity of borehole sites and calibration of measuring devices used during the whole campaign, the results of the climate reconstruction supported a general warming of about 1 K characteristic for the 20th century, which followed an inexpressive cooler period typical for the most of the 19th century. In the last three to four decades the warming rate has been locally increasing up to 0.02 K/year. It was also shown that the snow cover played a dominant role in the penetration of the climate “signal” to depth and could considerably smooth down the subsurface response to the changes occurred on the surface.     

CLIMATE HISTORY INFERRED FROM BOREHOLE TEMPERATURES, DATA FROM THE CZECH REPUBLIC

The knowledge of the present-day underground temperatures may be important in the assessments of the past climate change. The method of inversion of the temperature-depth records into the ground surface temperature history is briefly introduced by showing an example of synthetic data and illustrated by a review of existing results obtained from the inversion of temperature logs measured in holes in the Czech Republic. Underground temperatures observed in holes of the depth of at least 1000–1500 m seem to confirm the preinstrumental climate pattern of the past several thousand years. Most of shallower temperature records (500–800 m) revealed general warming of climate followed the Little Ice Age of the 17–18th centuries and a pronounced increase of the soil temperatures by at least 1 K since the beginning of this century.     

Accelerating ground warming in the Canadian Prairie provinces: Is it a result of global warming?

The results of precision temperature logs made to depths of several hundred meters in some 80 wells in Western Canada, most of which are located in the Prairie Provinces, show evidence of warming at the ground surface in the 0.5 K to 3.5 K range (average=2.2±0.7 K, for 80 unevenly distributed sites). Modeling shows that this warming mostly pertains to this century and it has been most substantal in the last four decades if the ramp function of the linear increase of surface temperature is assumed. Using the step function model's increase of surface temperature (land clearing, forest fires, etc.) the calculated onset of warming would pertain mostly to the last two decades. Contour maps of ground temperatures currently and previously and a contour map of the ground warming magnitude dilineate a large regional character of the ground temperature change at the southern marigin of permafrost for the large area of the Prairie Provinces. In many cases however, the magnitude of ground warming is much larger than the magnitude of air warming. This is especially evident for the northern areas of Alberta in the boreal forest ecoprovince. The magnitude of ground warming is equal to the magnitude of surface air warming in southern Alberta in the grassland and aspen parkland ecoprovinces. The analysis of the temperature depth response to the surface warming from well data shows the integrated effect of surface air warming together with the increases in ground temperature due to natural terrain effects and other anthropogenical changes to the surface of the earth.     

Reconstruction of the surface temperature in the Kura depression (Azerbaijan) by the inversion of borehole data

In order to reconstruct the ground surface temperature history (GSTH) in the Kura depression from the data on borehole temperatures, we selected two thermal logs, which met the requirements of the well temperature inversion into the GSTH. The temperature gradients measured in these wells varied about 20 K/km, which is typical for the region of study. The borehole temperatures were inverted into the ground surface temperatures in the past in accordance with the program developed by Po Yu Shen. It was found that the ground surface temperature had increased by 1–2°C during the last century. The GSTH derived from the well temperature inversion agrees with the climate temperatures measured at the Ganca meteorological station, which has been operating since 1873. These results obtained for the Kura depression are consistent also with the results of similar studies in other regions in the world.     

Ground surface temperature history in southern Canada: Temperatures at the base of the Laurentide ice sheet and during the Holocene

We use temperature profiles from 7 deep (≈ 2000 m) boreholes located in southern Canada to infer ground surface temperature histories (GSTH) during the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) and the Holocene. Visual inspection of the heat flow and of the reduced temperature depth profiles reveals significant regional differences with some sites showing conspicuous signs of post glacial warming, and other indicating only very small changes in ground surface temperature. These differences are confirmed by the inversions of the temperature profiles. The most prominent variations in GST are found at the Sudbury, Ontario, sites where the present ground surface temperature is high. With the exception of Sept-Iles, Quebec, the other sites only show moderate or no variation in GST. For all the sites, except possibly Sept-Iles, temperatures at the base of the ice sheet during the LGM were at or slightly below the melting point of ice. Temperatures might have been lower, a few degrees below 0 °C, at Sept-Iles. These results are consistent with field observations and model predictions suggesting high velocity basal flows in the ice sheet above the studied regions. These new data on basal temperatures will provide better quantitative constraints on glacier flow dynamics. The inversions give a chronology for the retreat of the ice sheet comparable to other proxies. Inversion and direct modeling show that, following the ice retreat, there was a warm period between 2 and 5 ka with temperatures 1–2 K higher than present. The inversion yields a time for this episode 1–2 kyr more recent than that inferred by other proxies for the Holocene climate optimum (HCO).     

New marine ΔR values for Arctic Canada

For more than four decades, the reporting of ¹⁴C dates on marine molluscs from Arctic Canada has been notable for the lack of consistently applied marine reservoir corrections. We propose that the common approach of reporting Canadian Arctic marine ¹⁴C dates using presumed time-invariant reservoir corrections be abandoned in favour of calibration of ¹⁴C dates, using the current standard protocol. This approach best facilitates inter- and intra-regional correlation, and correlation with other geochronometers. In order to enable the consistent calibration of marine ¹⁴C dates from Arctic Canada, we analysed a ¹⁴C database of 108 marine mollusc samples collected live between 1894 and 1956, and determined regional reservoir offset values (ΔR) for eight oceanographically distinct regions. The following new ΔR values should be used for ¹⁴C calibration: NW Canadian Arctic Archipelago, 335 ± 85 yrs; Foxe Basin, 310 ± 90 yrs; NE Baffin Island, 220 ± 20 yrs; SE Baffin Island, 150 ± 60 yrs; Hudson Strait, 65 ± 60 yrs; Ungava Bay, 145 ± 95 yrs; Hudson Bay, 110 ± 65 yrs; and James Bay, 365 ± 115 yrs.     

Climatic and environmental changes over the last millennium recorded in the Malan ice core from the northern Tibetan Plateau

In this paper, climatic and environmental changes were reconstructed since 1129A.D. based on the Malan ice core from Hol Xil, the northern Tibetan Plateau. The record of δ 18O in the Malan ice core indicated that the warm-season air temperature variations displayed a general increase trend, the 20th-century warming was within the range of natural climate variability, and the warmest century was the 17th century while the warmest decade was the 1610s, over the entire study period. The “Medieval Warm Epoch” and “Little Ice Age” were also reflected by the ice core record. The dust ratio in the Malan ice core is a good proxy for dust event frequency. The 870-year record of the dust ratio showed that dust events occurred much frequently in the 19th century. Comparing the variations of δ 18O and the dust ratio, it is found that there was a strong negative correlation between them on the time scales of 101―102 years. By analyses of all the climatic records of ice cores and tree rings from the northern Tibetan Plateau, it was revealed that dust events were more frequent in the cold and dry periods than in the warm and wet periods.     

Thermal regimes and degradation modes of permafrost along the Qinghai-Tibet Highway

Permafrost on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau (QTP) is widespread, thin, and thermally unstable. Under a warming climate during the past few decades, it has been degrading extensively with generally rising ground temperatures, the deepening of the maximum summer thaw, and with lessening of the winter frost penetration. The permafrost has degraded downward, upward and laterally. Permafrost has thinned or, in some areas, has totally disappeared. The modes of permafrost degradation have great significance in geocryology, in cold regions engineering and in cold regions environmental management. Permafrost in the interior of the QTP is well represented along the Qing-hai-Tibet Highway (QTH), which crosses the Plateau through north to south and traverses 560 km of permafrost-impacted ground. Horizontally, the degradation of permafrost occurs more visibly in the sporadic permafrost zone in the vicinity of the lower limit of permafrost (LLP), along the margins of taliks, and around permafrost islands. Downward degradation develops when the maximum depth of seasonal thaw exceeds the maximum depth of seasonal frost, and it generally results in the formation of a layered talik disconnecting the permafrost from the seasonal frost layer. The downward degrada- tion is divided into four stages: 1) initial degradation, 2) accelerated degradation, 3) layered talik and 4) finally the conversion of permafrost to seasonally frozen ground (SFG). The upward degradation occurs when the geothermal gradient in permafrost drops to less than the geothermal gradients in the underlying thawed soil layers. Three types of permafrost temperature curves (stable, degrading, and phase-changing transitory permafrost) illustrate these modes. Although strong differentiations in local conditions and permafrost types exist, the various combinations of the three degradation modes will ultimately transform permafrost into SFG. Along the QTH, the downward degradation has been proceeding at annual rates of 6 to 25 cm, upward degradation at 12 to 30 cm, and lateral degradation in the sporadic permafrost zone at 62 to 94 cm during the last quarter century. These rates exceed the 4 cm per year for the past 20 years reported for the discontinuous permafrost zone in subarctic Alaska, the 3 to 7 cm per year reported in Mongolia, and that of the thaw-stable permafrost in subarctic Yakutia and Arctic Alaska.     

Subsurface Temperature Changes Due to the Crustal Magmatic Activity – Numerical Simulation

Geothermal aspects of the hypothesis, relating the earthquake swarms in the West Bohemia/Vogtland seismoactive region to magmatic activity, are addressed. A simple 1-D geothermal model of the crust was used to assess the upper limit of the subsurface heating caused by magma intrusion at the assumed focal depth of 9 km. We simulated the process by solving the transient heat conduction equation numerically, considering the heat of magma crystallization to be gradually released in the temperature interval 1100°C to 900°C. The temperature field prior to the intrusion was in steady-state with a surface temperature of 10°C and heat flow of 80 mWm ^–2 , the temperature at the 9 km depth was 270°C. The results suggest that the temperature and heat flow in the uppermost 1 km of the crust begin to grow 100 ka after the intrusion emplacement only, and that the amplitudes of the changes for the realistic lateral extent (a few kilometres) of the intrusion are very small. It was also found that the rate of magma solidification depends strongly on the thickness of the intrusion. It takes about 100 years for a 50 m thick sill to cool down from 1100°C to 600°C, which value represents the lower limit of the solidus temperature. The same cooling takes only 60 days if the sill is 2 m thick. If the nature of the strongly reflected boundaries, interpreted from the January 1997 Nový Kostel seismograms, is connected with the fresh emplacement of magma, the calculated cooling rates have a predictive potential for the temporal changes of the waveforms.     

Thermal and isotopic evidence for surface and subsurface water contributions to baseflow in a high Arctic river

Seven longitudinal water temperature tow surveys were conducted to attempt to identify the location of surface and subsurface river water exchanges along the length of the West River at the Cape Bounty Arctic Watershed Observatory, Melville Island, Nunavut, Canada (74°55′ N, 109°35′ W). Water temperature data were collected using a calibrated thermistor with an accuracy of ±0.002 °C (resolution <0.00005 °C) along the river during July 2014 in conjunction with stable water isotope sampling to support the thermal data and to determine the extent of surface water mixing from different sources such as precipitation, snowmelt, and surface/subsurface water contributions to the river. Atmospheric conditions were found to be the main contributor to seasonal temperature variance in the river, whereas tributary inflows and residual channel snow also had important thermal effects to river temperatures. Residual channel snow was a sustained source of cold water during much of the 2014 summer season (June–August) and substantially offset downstream warming. The longitudinal temperature profiles indicate notable changes to the thermal state of the river, which are interpreted to be indicative of subsurface and surface water exchange through inputs of relatively cold or warm water. Broadly, surface inflows were found to provide warmer water relative to the West River, and contributed to downstream warming of the river, along with downstream enrichment of δD and δ¹⁸O. Subsurface inflows provided cooler water relative to the river, and contributed to downstream depletion of δD and δ¹⁸O and downstream cooling of river temperatures. These results demonstrate that localized changes in river temperature, in conjunction with isotopic tracers, can be used to track channel–slope water interactions in Arctic hydrological systems, work previously limited to alpine and temperate settings.     

Climate change inferred from analysis of borehole temperatures: First results from Alberta Basin,Canada

High quality temperature measurements have been made to depths of 30 to 220 m at 42 sites in 62 observational hydrogeological wells in Alberta. The temperature profiles commonly show near-surface inversions with a minimum temperature at depths of 30 to 50 m. Thermal modelling suggests a surface temperature history with warming reaching 2°C over the past 30 to 60 years. Recent climate warming evident from the analysis of the air temperature data in the region seems to provide at least a partial explanation of the increased ground temperatures. A sudden increase of the surface ground temperature caused by land clearing may be the other explanation, although modelling of such a sudden increase can only explain the observed temperature-depth data if the onset of such warming is 20–30 years old, which is in disagreement with the history of land development in the studied area. The effect of near-surface inversions of the temperature profiles also has been observed in the forested areas. The above support the climate based effect. The superposition of the climatic effect and man-made activity effect upon the ground warming is a very complicated process calling for considerably more research.     

全球变暖背景下东亚气候变化的最新情景预测

在最新的SRES A2和B2温室气体排放情景下,利用国际上7个气候模式针对未来全球变暖的数值模拟结果,本文着重分析了东亚区域气候21世纪的变化趋势. 研究揭示：中国大陆年均表面气温升高过程与全球同步,但增幅在东北、西部和华中地区较大,且表现出明显的年际变化;全球年均表面气温增幅纬向上大体呈带状分布,两极地区最为明显,并在北极地区达到最大;此外,21世纪后半段北半球高纬度地区的年平均强升温幅度主要来自于冬季增温. 在21世纪前50年,温室气体含量的增加除在一定程度上会增加青藏高原大部分夏季降水量外,不会对中国大陆其余地区的年、季节平均降水量产生较大影响;但持续的温室气体含量增加将最终导致大陆降水量几乎是全域性的增加.     

Seafloor evidence for ice shelf flow across the Alaska–Beaufort margin of the Arctic Ocean

New imagery of ～14 100 km² of seafloor along a 640 km stretch of the Alaska and Beaufort margins (ABM) in water depths from 250 to 2800 m depicts a repetitive association of glaciogenic bedforms (lineations and iceberg scours), broad erosional bathymetric features and adjacent downslope turbidite gullies. These bedforms have styles, depths and orientations similar to features discovered earlier on the Chukchi Borderland, up to 800 km northwest of the ABM. Lineations occur across the surface of a flattened bathymetric bench interpreted to have formed by an ice shelf sliding along the continental slope and scraping the seafloor at temporary grounding locations. The glacial geology of surrounding areas suggests that an ice shelf probably flowed from the mouths of overdeepened glacial troughs in the Canadian Arctic Archipelago westward along the ABM and across the Chukchi Borderland. This curved pathway indicates an obstruction to ice flow in the central Canada Basin, possibly caused by either a basin‐wide ice shelf or by a pile‐up of mega‐bergs originating from the Eurasian side of the Arctic Ocean. The ice shelf that affected the ABM may have formed between Oxygen Isotopic Stage 4 to 5b, possibly correlating to an inferred intra‐Stage 5 widespread Beringian glaciation. Evidence for glaciogenic features on the ABM corroborates suggestions that large ice volumes and extents existed in the Arctic during Pleistocene glacial periods. These findings have far‐reaching implications for Arctic climate studies, ocean circulation, sediment stratigraphy and the stability of circum‐Arctic continental ice masses. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Recent Climate Warming: Surface Air Temperature Series and Geothermal Evidence

Long-term (1961 – 1996) meteorological air temperature series together with the reconstructed ground surface temperature histories, obtained by inverting borehole temperature-depth profiles, were used to project regional patterns of the recent (climate) warming rate on the territory of the Czech Republic. The characteristic magnitude of the warming rate of 0.02 –0.03 K/yr was confirmed by the results of several years of monitoring the temperature in two experimental boreholes. The monitoring of shallow temperatures at depths of about 30 –40 m, i.e. below the reach of the seasonal surface temperature variations, can serve as an alternative tool of direct quantitative assessment of the present warming rate. The data also seem to sustain a potential man-made component contributing to the more pronounced recent warming rate observed in the areas of large agglomeration.     

History and surveillance of volcanic activity on Jan Mayen island

Jan Mayen is a small isolated Arctic island located on or very near the junction of the southern end of Mohns ridge and the central part of the Jan Mayen fracture zone. The alkaline petrology and tectonic setting of Jan Maven are similar to some other volcanic islands along the mid-Atlantic ridge, particularly the Westmann Islands of Iceland. Both the Westmann Islands and Jan Mayen are underlain by a relatively thick oceanic(?) crust, about 15 km thick, and recent eruptions were initiated and accompanied by earthquakes with loci from 25 to 30 km deep. The northern hall of the island is dominated by Mt. Beerenberg, a major central volcano composed mainly of alkali olivine basalt. The oldest exposed lavas are of upper Pleistocene age. Flank eruptions on Beerenberg in 1732, 1818 and 1970, together with historic and cartographic evidence for similar eruptions in the 16^th century and the middle of the 19^th century, suggest an eruption frequency of 150 years ± 75 years. A three-station seismograph network, six surface tilt-measuring sites, and a gravity and levelling profile comprise the main features of the present surveillance system.     

Simulating pan‐Arctic runoff with a macro‐scale terrestrial water balance model

A terrestrial hydrological model, developed to simulate the high‐latitude water cycle, is described, along with comparisons with observed data across the pan‐Arctic drainage basin. Gridded fields of plant rooting depth, soil characteristics (texture, organic content), vegetation, and daily time series of precipitation and air temperature provide the primary inputs used to derive simulated runoff at a grid resolution of 25 km across the pan‐Arctic. The pan‐Arctic water balance model (P/WBM) includes a simple scheme for simulating daily changes in soil frozen and liquid water amounts, with the thaw–freeze model (TFM) driven by air temperature, modelled soil moisture content, and physiographic data. Climate time series (precipitation and air temperature) are from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) reanalysis project for the period 1980–2001. P/WBM‐generated maximum summer active‐layer thickness estimates differ from a set of observed data by an average of 12 cm at 27 sites in Alaska, with many of the differences within the variability (1σ) seen in field samples. Simulated long‐term annual runoffs are in the range 100 to 400 mm year^?1. The highest runoffs are found across northeastern Canada, southern Alaska, and Norway, and lower estimates are noted along the highest latitudes of the terrestrial Arctic in North America and Asia. Good agreement exists between simulated and observed long‐term seasonal (winter, spring, summer–fall) runoff to the ten Arctic sea basins (r = 0·84). Model water budgets are most sensitive to changes in precipitation and air temperature, whereas less affect is noted when other model parameters are altered. Increasing daily precipitation by 25% amplifies annual runoff by 50 to 80% for the largest Arctic drainage basins. Ignoring soil ice by eliminating the TFM sub‐model leads to runoffs that are 7 to 27% lower than the control run. The results of these model sensitivity experiments, along with other uncertainties in both observed validation data and model inputs, emphasize the need to develop improved spatial data sets of key geophysical quantities (particularly climate time series) to estimate terrestrial Arctic hydrological budgets better. Copyright © 2003 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Seasonal flows of international British Columbia-Alaska rivers: The nonlinear influence of ocean-atmosphere circulation patterns

The northern portion of the Pacific coastal temperate rainforest (PCTR) is one of the least anthropogenically modified regions on earth and remains in many respects a frontier area to science. Rivers crossing the northern PCTR, which is also an international boundary region between British Columbia, Canada and Alaska, USA, deliver large freshwater and biogeochemical fluxes to the Gulf of Alaska and establish linkages between coastal and continental ecosystems. We evaluate interannual flow variability in three transboundary PCTR watersheds in response to El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), Arctic Oscillation (AO), and North Pacific Gyre Oscillation (NPGO). Historical hydroclimatic datasets from both Canada and the USA are analyzed using an up-to-date methodological suite accommodating both seasonally transient and highly nonlinear teleconnections. We find that streamflow teleconnections occur over particular seasonal windows reflecting the intersection of specific atmospheric and terrestrial hydrologic processes. The strongest signal is a snowmelt-driven flow timing shift resulting from ENSO- and PDO-associated temperature anomalies. Autumn rainfall runoff is also modulated by these climate modes, and a glacier-mediated teleconnection contributes to a late-summer ENSO-flow association. Teleconnections between AO and freshet flows reflect corresponding temperature and precipitation anomalies. A coherent NPGO signal is not clearly evident in streamflow. Linear and monotonically nonlinear teleconnections were widely identified, with less evidence for the parabolic effects that can play an important role elsewhere. The streamflow teleconnections did not vary greatly between hydrometric stations, presumably reflecting broad similarities in watershed characteristics. These results establish a regional foundation for both transboundary water management and studies of long-term hydroclimatic and environmental change.