地震统计区地震活动性参数b值及v4不确定性研究

本文结合华北地区几个地震统计区的实例，探讨了地震统计区的重要地震活动性参数b值和v4不确定性的主要影响因素及其特征，并研究分析了其不确定性的大小。结果表明，地震活动性参数的不确定性主要影响因素为样本统计时段、样本处理方法、统计下限震级、高震级年平均发生率等。在郯庐地震统计区，b值变化可达0．2以上，v4的变化可达1．4以上，汾渭地震统计区的不确定性也基本相当，河北平原地震统计区因为地震样本相对丰富，不确定性要小许多。     

Uncertainities in estimation of extrapolated annual occurrence rate of earthquakes using logical tree

The logical tree methods are used for evaluate quantitatively relationship between frequency and magnitude, and deduce uncertainties of annual occurrence rate of earthquakes in the periods of lower magnitude earthquake. The uncertainties include deviations from the self-similarity of frequency-magnitude relations, different fitting methods, different methods obtained the annual occurrence rate, magnitude step used in fitting, start magnitude, error of magnitude and so on. Taking Xianshuihe River source zone as an example, we analyze uncertainties of occurrence rate of earthquakes M ≥ 4, which is needed in risk evaluation extrapolating from frequency-magnitude relations of stronger earthquakes. The annual occurrence rate of M ≥ 4 is usually required for seismic hazard assessment. The sensitivity analysis and examinations indicate that, in the same frequency-magnitude relations fitting method, the most sensitive factor is annual occurrence rate, the second is magnitude step and the following is start magnitude. Effect of magnitude error is rather small. Procedure of estimating the uncertainties is as follows: (1) Establishing a logical tree described uncertainties in frequency-magnitude relations by available data and knowledge about studied region. (2) Calculating frequency-magnitude relations for each end branches. (3) Examining sensitivities of each uncertainty factors, amending structure of logical tree and adjusting original weights. (4) Recalculating frequency-magnitude relations of end branches and complementary cumulative distribution function (CCDF) in each magnitude intervals. (5) Obtaining an annual occurrence rate of M ≥ 4 earthquakes under given fractiles. Taking fractiles as 20% and 80%, annual occurrence rate of M ≥ 4 events in Xianshuihe seismic zone is 0.643 0. The annual occurrence rate is 0.631 8 under fractiles of 50%, which is very close to that under fractiles 20% and 80%.     

基于广义帕累托分布的马尼拉海沟俯冲带地震危险性估计

选取马尼拉海沟俯冲带作为潜源区, 基于广义帕累托分布, 通过对一定时段内超过某一阈值的震级数据进行拟合, 建立该潜源区地震危险性估计模型, 估计强震重现水平和震级上限, 并对估计结果的不确定性进行了分析, 得到马尼拉海沟俯冲带震级上限为9.0级, 10 a、 50 a、 100 a、 200 a马尼拉海沟俯冲带的震级重现水平期望值分别为7.1级、 7.6级、 7.7级、 7.9级。     

A Method to Assess Analytical Uncertainties Over Large Concentration Ranges With Reference to Volatile Organics in Water

The uncertainty associated with a volatile organic concentration measurement is a function of variability and bias introduced at the various levels of sample handling: collection, storage, and analysis. During the past decade, sampling materials and the development and/or improvement of sampling protocols have been the subject of considerable research activity. As a result, in cases of samples properly handled, the analytical variability can be the dominant source of uncertainty in a given concentration value. Here analytical variability refers to any error that might arise during analysis, including the detector response error and any sample handling errors common to both standards and samples. This can be a particular concern for field analyses by gas chromatography (GC), Well-established statistical methods are available to estimate analytical uncertainty from linear calibration curves, but these methods are poorly suited for the analysis of volatile organics because organic samples frequently require instrument calibration (usually GC) over several orders of magnitude in concentration. If a single linear calibration curve is used to determine sample concentrations and uncertainties, then unrealistically large uncertainties may be assigned to low concentration samples. However, the methods can be adopted for extended concentration range calibration curves by breaking the overall calibration line down into smaller sub-calibration lines that span smaller ranges. These can then be examined and used selectively to determine concentrations with more appropriate uncertainties attached. The method of multiple callbration line analysis described here is suitable for programming with any high level computer language. It can be used to calculate meaningful analytical uncertainty values for any substance analyzed over a wide range in concentrations (i.e., an order of magnitude or more).     

Vector-intensity measure based seismic vulnerability analysis of bridge structures

This paper presents a method for seismic vulnerability analysis of bridge structures based on vector-valued intensity measure(v IM), which predicts the limit-state capacities efficiently with multi-intensity measures of seismic event. Accounting for the uncertainties of the bridge model, ten single-bent overpass bridge structures are taken as samples statistically using Latin hypercube sampling approach. 200 earthquake records are chosen randomly for the uncertainties of ground motions according to the site condition of the bridges. The uncertainties of structural capacity and seismic demand are evaluated with the ratios of demand to capacity in different damage state. By comparing the relative importance of different intensity measures, Sa(T1) and Sa(T2) are chosen as v IM. Then, the vector-valued fragility functions of different bridge components are developed. Finally, the system-level vulnerability of the bridge based on v IM is studied with DunnettSobel class correlation matrix which can consider the correlation effects of different bridge components. The study indicates that an increment IMs from a scalar IM to v IM results in a significant reduction in the dispersion of fragility functions and in the uncertainties in evaluating earthquake risk. The feasibility and validity of the proposed vulnerability analysis method is validated and the bridge is more vulnerable than any components.     

稳健估计b值及中强震异常特征研究

利用M估计的稳健回归方法，选取ψ函数为正态密度型函数，计算震级-频度关系中的b值，对基于随机泊松分布的模拟地震样本及天然地震样本，用稳健估计方法与最小二乘方法计算b值后进行比较得出，对于天然地震样本，稳健估计得到的b值更加符合震级-频度关系，作为应用实例，将最小二第六估计法b值与稳健估计b值更加符合震级-频度关系，作为应用实例，将最小二乘估计法b值与稳健估计b值的偏离度作为中强震的前兆判定指标，对新疆地区b值进行时间扫描，在对北天山及南天山东段Ms≥5、南天山西段Ms≥6级地震前异常特征进行讨论后，认为该指标作为中甜地震预报指标具有一定的实用性。     

河套盆地周缘泉水化学组分对2015年4月15日阿左旗MS5.8地震的响应*

根据河套盆地周缘断裂带泉水的氢、氧同位素组成和水化学组分,讨论了该区地下水的化学类型、成因及其与地震活动的关系。于2014年9月下旬和2015年4月15日M_S5.8阿左旗地震震后在河套盆地周缘的乌拉山断裂带、色尔腾断裂带、狼山断裂带以及桌子山断裂带采集了17个泉水和井水样品,测得水样的TDS分布在143.8~42 553.0mg/L范围内,δD和δ¹⁸O值分别在-83.6‰~66.56‰和-11.16‰~8.2‰的范围内,来源为大气降水。根据舒卡列夫分类法,震前水样可划分为13种水化学类型,震后西山咀、圐圙朴隆等5个点采样点泉水的水化学类型发生变化。其中,乌拉山断裂带的水样以HCO₃-Ca型低矿化度地表水为主;色尔腾断裂带、狼山断裂带泉水受白垩系含水层影响,矿化度较高,富含HCO^-₃及SO^2-₄;桌子山一带受煤矿开采影响,水样以富SO^2-₄和Cl^-的高矿化度水为特征。地震前后TDS、阴、阳离子以及γNa/γCl、γ(SO₄+Cl)/γHCO₃、γHCO₃/γCl等毫克当量比值能够较好地反映地震。2015年4月15日阿左旗M_S5.8地震后,呼鲁斯太、迪延阿贵庙及八一井的水化学组成变化较大,对地震响应较为敏感。呼鲁斯太地区泉水的TDS稍有降低,但HCO^-₃在阴离子中所占比例有所增加,表明震后该地区含水层的泉水与较低矿化度的含碳酸盐岩含水层水发生了混合;八一井的TDS值有所增加,γNa/γCl比值有所降低,表明深部高矿化度水的混入;迪延阿贵庙水样的TDS稍有下降,但NaCl的相对含量较震前有所升高,表明有低矿化度NaCl水的混入。本工作不仅确定了该区水文地球化学背景,而且对地震监测和预测具有一定参考价值。     

中国大陆古地震研究的关键技术与案例解析(4)——古地震定年技术的样品采集和事件年代分析

古地震资料要在地震中长期预报和地震危险性评估中发挥更重要的作用,关键在于减小古地震研究中的不确定性,古地震发生年代的确定是最大限度减小不确定性的关键因素之一。要得到尽可能接近真实的古地震事件年代,除正确地选择测年方法外,正确的采样方法和事件年代确定技术尤为关键。在几种主要测年技术中,优先采集碳十四(14C)测年样品、释光样品采集搬运过程有充分"退火"条件的物质、铍十(10Be)样品应采集各种干扰因素较少的样品、依据构造运动属性选择适宜的采样位置、用序列样品限制事件年代等,是正确采集测定事件年代样品的技术要点;用地层年代限制的事件发生年代宜用区间值、有多个可信样品年龄值时应用年轻样品的年代数据,是确定单一地点事件发生年代的基本原则;而包括逐次限定法、Z统计法、年龄分布曲线重叠法、事件窗法、年龄分布曲线权重重叠法在内的时间对比法,以及空间对比法是断层或断层段多个测年地点事件年代估计的主要分析方法。     

环形带地震活动能量场分析方法

将地震活动能量作为随机场,采用自然正交函数(或称经验正交函数)展开方法进行分析,计算单元取为环形,选择7级、6级地震作为样本,计算了这些7级、6级地震前环形带地震活动典型场的时间因子曲线。结果表明,选取的7级、6级地震震例震前环形带地震活动典型场的时间因子曲线明显出现了偏离正常变化的异常,异常出现时间大多在震前3年至临震时。环形带地震活动场分析方法还能够分析发生异常的空间分布情况。最后就环形带地震活动场分析方法的应用效果、参数选取以及应用于实际地震预测工作的有关问题进行了讨论。     

2019年6月17日四川长宁MS 6.0地震灾害损失快速评估精准性分析

地震发生时刻、震级、极震区烈度评估、烈度衰减关系模型、人员伤亡评估模型、房屋震害矩阵等是影响地震灾害损失计算的主要因素,各因素存在不确定性,导致评估结果与实际结果存在一定差距。文中对2019年6月19日四川长宁6.0级地震灾害损失快速评估精准性进行分析,探讨极震区烈度评估、地震影响场、烈度衰减关系模型、人员伤亡评估模型、房屋震害矩阵对评估结果的影响及与真实结果存在的偏差,结果表明,提高地震影响场评估、人口、房屋建筑等数据空间分布精准性,是提高地震灾害损失快速评估系统精准性的基础和前提。     

Influence of statistical time range on estimating seismicity parameters

Introduction At present, the current probabilistic method of seismic hazard analysis in the world is gener-ally adopted in seismic safety evaluation (Cornell, 1968). It supposed that earthquake occurrence conforms to the segmented Poisson distribution model in time and space and the proportional rela-tion among earthquakes of various magnitudes obeys the cut-exponential distribution law in a sta-tistical area in compiling Seismic Intensity Zoning Map in China (1990) owing to the temporal- sp…     

Spatiotemporal evolution of the completeness magnitude of the Icelandic earthquake catalogue from 1991 to 2013

In 1991, a digital seismic monitoring network was installed in Iceland with a digital seismic system and automatic operation. After 20 years of operation, we explore for the first time its nationwide performance by analysing the spatiotemporal variations of the completeness magnitude. We use the Bayesian magnitude of completeness (BMC) method that combines local completeness magnitude observations with prior information based on the density of seismic stations. Additionally, we test the impact of earthquake location uncertainties on the BMC results, by filtering the catalogue using a multivariate analysis that identifies outliers in the hypocentre error distribution. We find that the entire North-to-South active rift zone shows a relatively low magnitude of completeness M_c in the range 0.5–1.0, highlighting the ability of the Icelandic network to detect small earthquakes. This work also demonstrates the influence of earthquake location uncertainties on the spatiotemporal magnitude of completeness analysis.     

相对局部区域震源参数随机不确定性经验关系研究

在进行未来破坏性地震的强地面运动数值模拟时,震源参数选取的准确性对地震动预测的结果影响很大。震源参数的确定存在很多不确定性因素,既包含随机的不确定性因素,又包含认知的不确定性因素。本文在大量地震事件及文献调研的基础上,运用统计学方法对具备随机不确定性特征的震源参数进行统计研究,以震源参数经验公式的形态建立解释其随机性和不确定性的数学模型。为了研究局部地区震源参数的定标关系特征,获得更加适用于局部地震密集区域,尤其是包含中国大陆地区在内的局部区域的震源参数的经验关系,本文从GCMT地震目录中选取了1 700多个M_W≥5.5的地震事件,运用统计学方法研究地震密集地区的震源参数经验关系,包括震级、地震矩、破裂面积等,增加了相对较大的局部范围内凹凸体的地震样本数量,从统计学角度计算更加适合局部区域的震源参数的经验关系。统计结果表明:局部区域震例获得的震源参数的经验关系与不限区域震例获得的经验关系存在差异,尤其是涉及到断层破裂面积、凹凸体相关参数时差异较大,局部区域内震例获得的震源参数的经验关系将更具有代表性。应用本文获得的相对局部区域的经验公式计算未来破坏性地震的强地面运动所需的震源参数时,获得的地震动预测结果将更能体现目标区域真实的地震动特征,进而提高地震动预测结果的可靠性。      

东北地震区b值和地震年平均发生率的统计分析

震级和频度关系式中的b值和地震年平均发生率是表征一个地区地震活动性的重要参数，也是地震危险性概率分析中不可缺少的计算参数。本文根据当前的地震目录，利用数理统计的方法给出了东北地震区的b值和地震的年平均发生率。该研究成果对在本区开展地震安全性评价和地震预报具有重要的参考价值。     

地震活动性的统计分析:由过去推测将来的可能性研究

为了由过去的地震活动性推测将来的地震活动性,引入了地震（震级≥m）的期望年发生率v（≥m）来描述一个地区的地震活动性．根据全球地震目录（1964-1994年）以及南加州（1932-1995年）和华北（1970-1994年）两个区域地震目录资料,以统计样本量作为目录记录时间长短的相对量度,对由不同的统计样本量计算得出的地震实际年发生率v（≥m,T,t）进行了统计分析,得到三点结沦：①在统计样本量n足够大的情况下,地震实际年发生率表现出准平稳时间过程的特征,可近似地看作地震期望年发生率,本文给出了这种近似的误差（离差系数）与统计样本量之间的定量关系;②离差系数与统计样本量之间的关系与震级无关,表现出不同震级层次的相似性;③统计样本量相同时,不同震级的地震期望年发生率之间满足logv（≥）=a－bm的关系,形式上与G－R关系相似,但它给出了由小地震的统计特征估计大地震的期望年发生率及其统计误差的方法．基于上述结论,进一步讨论了地震活动性的统计特征在地震危险性分析中的潜在应用。     

The integrated effects of climate and hydrologic uncertainty on future flood risk assessments

This work examines future flood risk within the context of integrated climate and hydrologic modelling uncertainty. The research questions investigated are (1) whether hydrologic uncertainties are a significant source of uncertainty relative to other sources such as climate variability and change and (2) whether a statistical characterization of uncertainty from a lumped, conceptual hydrologic model is sufficient to account for hydrologic uncertainties in the modelling process. To investigate these questions, an ensemble of climate simulations are propagated through hydrologic models and then through a reservoir simulation model to delimit the range of flood protection under a wide array of climate conditions. Uncertainty in mean climate changes and internal climate variability are framed using a risk‐based methodology and are explored using a stochastic weather generator. To account for hydrologic uncertainty, two hydrologic models are considered, a conceptual, lumped parameter model and a distributed, physically based model. In the conceptual model, parameter and residual error uncertainties are quantified and propagated through the analysis using a Bayesian modelling framework. The approach is demonstrated in a case study for the Coralville Dam on the Iowa River, where recent, intense flooding has raised questions about potential impacts of climate change on flood protection adequacy. Results indicate that the uncertainty surrounding future flood risk from hydrologic modelling and internal climate variability can be of the same order of magnitude as climate change. Furthermore, statistical uncertainty in the conceptual hydrological model can capture the primary structural differences that emerge in flood damage estimates between the two hydrologic models. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

考虑设计地震分组的强度折减系数的研究

强度折减系数既是基于强度的抗震设计中确定设计地震力的关键因素,又是基于性态的抗震设计理论中确定非弹性反应谱的主要依据. 本文结合我国抗震设计反应谱的形式和特点,应用823条国内外水平向地震动记录（充分利用了我国取得的强震记录）,给出了一种考虑设计地震分组和场地类别的强度折减系数模型,研究了结构周期、延性、场地类别、设计地震分组、震级、震中距等因素对强度折减系数的影响. 结果表明:场地条件对强度折减系数的影响是不可忽略的,特别是对延性较大的短周期结构更应注意场地条件的影响;设计地震分组是影响强度折减系数的一个重要因素,在应用我国规范设计反应谱构造非弹性反应谱所用的强度折减系数必须考虑设计分组的影响;震级对强度折减系数的影响较小;如不考虑近场大脉冲地震动记录的影响,震中距对强度折减系数的影响是可以忽略的.      

Evidence that bio-metallic mineral precipitation enhances the complex conductivity response at a hydrocarbon contaminated site

The complex conductivity signatures of a hydrocarbon contaminated site, undergoing biodegradation, near Bemidji, Minnesota were investigated. This site is characterized by a biogeochemical process where iron reduction is coupled with the oxidation of hydrocarbon contaminants. The biogeochemical transformations have resulted in precipitation of different bio-metallic iron mineral precipitates such as magnetite, ferroan calcite, and siderite. Our main objective was to elucidate the major factors controlling the complex conductivity response at the site. We acquired laboratory complex conductivity measurements along four cores retrieved from the site in the frequency range between 0.001 and 1000 Hz. Our results show the following: (1) in general higher imaginary conductivity was observed for samples from contaminated locations compared to samples from the uncontaminated location, (2) the imaginary conductivity for samples contaminated with residual and free phase hydrocarbon (smear zone) was higher compared to samples with dissolved phase hydrocarbon, (3) vadose zone samples located above locations with free phase hydrocarbon show higher imaginary conductivity magnitude compared to vadose zone samples from the dissolved phase and uncontaminated locations, (4) the real conductivity was generally elevated for samples from the contaminated locations, but not as diagnostic to the presence of contamination as the imaginary conductivity; (5) for most of the contaminated samples the imaginary conductivity data show a well-defined peak between 0.001 and 0.01 Hz, and (6) sample locations exhibiting higher imaginary conductivity are concomitant with locations having higher magnetic susceptibility. Controlled experiments indicate that variations in electrolytic conductivity and water content across the site are unlikely to fully account for the higher imaginary conductivity observed within the smear zone of contaminated locations. Instead, using magnetite as an example of the bio-metallic minerals in the contaminated location at the site, we observe a clear increase in the imaginary conductivity response with increasing magnetite content. The presence of bio-metallic mineral phases (e.g., magnetite) within the contaminated location associated with hydrocarbon biodegradation may explain the high imaginary conductivity response. Thus, we postulate that the precipitation of bio-metallic minerals at hydrocarbon contaminated sites impacts their complex conductivity signatures and should be considered in the interpretation of complex conductivity data from oil contaminated sites undergoing intrinsic bioremediation.     

Regional seismic slope failure probability matrices

A method for constructing seismic slope failure probability matrices is presented. The core of the method is a probabilistic sliding block model which allows for systematic incorporation of the uncertainties associated with both the ground excitation and the strength of the slope materials. The extent of damage to a slope is defined in terms of the magnitude of the earthquake-induced permanent displacement. The intensity of the ground shaking is characterized by a peak ground acceleration as well as an earthquake magnitude, and the possible scatter in the ground motion details is included through the use of an equivalent stationary motion model. After the effects of essential contributing factors are discussed, regional seismic slope failure probability matrices are presented for general applications.     

震级-频度关系的修改及其对部分地震区带的应用

在本文中作者根据对实际资料的计算,提出将传统的震级-频度关系修改成logN=b_1+b_2M+b_3M~2的形式。用该公式对我国部分地震区带的地震资料进行了计算,结果表明,修改后的震级-频度关系的拟合精度显著提高,其残差比原关系式缩小。用修改后的公式可方便地求得地震区带的震级上限,只要有足够时间长度的观测资料,所求得的震级上限是比较合理的。