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1.
Vasubandhu Misra  H. Li 《Climate Dynamics》2014,42(9-10):2491-2507
An extensive set of boreal summer seasonal hindcasts from a two tier system is compared with corresponding seasonal hindcasts from two other coupled ocean–atmosphere models for their seasonal prediction skill (for precipitation and surface temperature) of the Asian summer monsoon. The unique aspect of the two-tier system is that it is at relatively high resolution and the SST forcing is uniquely bias corrected from the multi-model averaged forecasted SST from the two coupled ocean–atmosphere models. Our analysis reveals: (a) The two-tier forecast system has seasonal prediction skill for precipitation that is comparable (over the Southeast Asian monsoon) or even higher (over the South Asian monsoon) than the coupled ocean–atmosphere. For seasonal anomalies of the surface temperature the results are more comparable across models, with all of them showing higher skill than that for precipitation. (b) Despite the improvement from the uncoupled AGCM all models in this study display a deterministic skill for seasonal precipitation anomalies over the Asian summer monsoon region to be weak. But there is useful probabilistic skill for tercile anomalies of precipitation and surface temperature that could be harvested from both the coupled and the uncoupled climate models. (c) Seasonal predictability of the South Asian summer monsoon (rainfall and temperature) does seem to stem from the remote ENSO forcing especially over the Indian monsoon region and the relatively weaker seasonal predictability in the Southeast Asian summer monsoon could be related to the comparatively weaker teleconnection with ENSO. The uncoupled AGCM with the bias corrected SST is able to leverage this teleconnection for improved seasonal prediction skill of the South Asian monsoon relative to the coupled models which display large systematic errors of the tropical SST’s.  相似文献   

2.
The effect of bias on control simulation is a significant issue for climate change modeling studies. We investigated the effect of the sea surface temperature (SST) bias in present day (0 ka) Atmosphere–Ocean Coupled General Circulation Model (AOGCM) simulations on simulations of the mid-Holocene (6 ka, i.e., 6,000 years before present) Asian monsoon enhancement. Because changes in ocean heat transport have a negligible effect on the 6 ka Asian monsoon (Ohgaito and Abe-Ouchi in Clim Dyn 29(1):39–50, 2007), we used an Atmospheric General Circulation Model (AGCM) rather than an AOGCM. Simulations using the AGCM coupled to a mixed layer ocean model (MLM) were conducted for 0 and for 6 ka with different ocean heat transport estimated from the climatological SST of the 0 ka simulations from nine Paleoclimate Modeling Intercomparison Project (PMIP) phase 2 (PMIP2) AOGCMs (henceforth “MA” is used to refer to experiments using the AGCM coupled with the MLM). No correlation between MA and the corresponding PMIP2 was seen in the 0 ka precipitation and it was not very strong for the 6 ka precipitation enhancement. Thus, the influences from the different AGCMs play a substantial role on the 0 ka precipitation and the 6 ka precipitation enhancement. The sensitivity experiments indicated that it was the pattern of the 0 ka SST bias which played a dominant role in the 0 ka precipitation and the 6 ka precipitation enhancement, not the difference in the mean value of the SST bias. The distributions of the 6 ka precipitation enhancements for the nine PMIP2 AOGCMs and nine MA experiments were compared. These showed that the effects of SST bias on 6 ka precipitation enhancement among the AOGCMs were not negligible. The effects of biases among the AGCMs were not negligible either, but of comparable size. That is, improvements in both the SST bias and the AGCM contribute to simulate better 6 ka monsoon.  相似文献   

3.
This paper examines an issue concerning the simulation of anomalously wet Indian summer monsoons like 1994 which co-occurred with strong positive Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) conditions in the tropical Indian Ocean. Contrary to observations it has been noticed that standalone atmospheric general circulation models (AGCM) forced with observed SST boundary condition, consistently depicted a decrease of the summer monsoon rainfall during 1994 over the Indian region. Given the ocean?Catmosphere coupling during IOD events, we have examined whether the failure of standalone AGCM simulations in capturing wet Indian monsoons like 1994 can be remedied by including a simple form of coupling that allows the monsoon circulation to dynamically interact with the IOD anomalies. With this view, we have performed a suite of simulations by coupling an AGCM to a slab-ocean model with spatially varying mixed-layer-depth (MLD) specified from observations for the 1994 IOD; as well as four other cases (1983, 1997, 2006, 2007). The specification of spatially varying MLD from observations allows us to constrain the model to observed IOD conditions. It is seen that the inclusion of coupling significantly improves the large-scale circulation response by strengthening the monsoon cross-equatorial flow; leading to precipitation enhancement over the subcontinent and rainfall decrease over south-eastern tropical Indian Ocean??in a manner broadly consistent with observations. A plausible physical mechanism is suggested to explain the monsoonal response in the coupled frame-work. These results warrant the need for improved monsoon simulations with fully coupled models to be able to better capture the observed monsoon interannual variability.  相似文献   

4.
The response of monsoon circulation in the northern and southern hemisphere to 6?ka orbital forcing has been examined in 17 atmospheric general circulation models and 11 coupled ocean–atmosphere general circulation models. The atmospheric response to increased summer insolation at 6?ka in the northern subtropics strengthens the northern-hemisphere summer monsoons and leads to increased monsoonal precipitation in western North America, northern Africa and China; ocean feedbacks amplify this response and lead to further increase in monsoon precipitation in these three regions. The atmospheric response to reduced summer insolation at 6?ka in the southern subtropics weakens the southern-hemisphere summer monsoons and leads to decreased monsoonal precipitation in northern South America, southern Africa and northern Australia; ocean feedbacks weaken this response so that the decrease in rainfall is smaller than might otherwise be expected. The role of the ocean in monsoonal circulation in other regions is more complex. There is no discernable impact of orbital forcing in the monsoon region of North America in the atmosphere-only simulations but a strong increase in precipitation in the ocean–atmosphere simulations. In contrast, there is a strong atmospheric response to orbital forcing over northern India but ocean feedback reduces the strength of the change in the monsoon although it still remains stronger than today. Although there are differences in magnitude and exact location of regional precipitation changes from model to model, the same basic mechanisms are involved in the oceanic modulation of the response to orbital forcing and this gives rise to a robust ensemble response for each of the monsoon systems. Comparison of simulated and reconstructed changes in regional climate suggest that the coupled ocean–atmosphere simulations produce more realistic changes in the northern-hemisphere monsoons than atmosphere-only simulations, though they underestimate the observed changes in precipitation in all regions. Evaluation of the southern-hemisphere monsoons is limited by lack of quantitative reconstructions, but suggest that model skill in simulating these monsoons is limited.  相似文献   

5.
An atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM) and an oceanic general circulation model (OGCM) are asynchronously coupled to simulate the climate of the mid-Holocene period. The role of the solar radiation and ocean in the mid-Holocene East Asian monsoon climate is analyzed and some mechanisms are revealed. At the forcing of changed solar radiation induced by the changed orbital parameters and the changed SST simulated by the OGCM, compared with when there is orbital forcing alone, there is more precipitation and the monsoon is stronger in the summer of East Asia, and the winter temperature increases over China. These agree better with the reconstructed data. It is revealed that the change of solar radiation can displace northward the ITCZ and the East Asia subtropical jet, which bring more precipitation over the south of Tibet and North and Northeast China. By analyzing the summer meridional latent heat transport, it is found that the influence of solar radiation change is mainly to increase the convergence of atmosphere toward the land, and the influence of SST change is mainly to transport more moisture to the sea surface atmosphere. Their synergistic effect on East Asian precipitation is much stronger than the sum of their respective effects.  相似文献   

6.
Observational analysis and purposely designed coupled atmosphere–ocean (AOGCM) and atmosphere-only (AGCM) model simulations are used together to investigate a new mechanism describing how spring Arctic sea ice impacts the East Asian summer monsoon (EASM). Consistent with previous studies, analysis of observational data from 1979 to 2009 show that spring Arctic sea ice is significantly linked to the EASM on inter-annual timescales. Results of a multivariate Empirical Orthogonal Function analysis reveal that sea surface temperature (SST) changes in the North Pacific play a mediating role for the inter-seasonal connection between spring Arctic sea ice and the EASM. Large-scale atmospheric circulation and precipitation changes are consistent with the SST changes. The mechanism found in the observational data is confirmed by the numerical experiments and can be described as follows: spring Arctic sea ice anomalies cause atmospheric circulation anomalies, which, in turn, cause SST anomalies in the North Pacific. The SST anomalies can persist into summer and then impact the summer monsoon circulation and precipitation over East Asia. The mediating role of SST changes is highlighted by the result that only the AOGCM, but not the AGCM, reproduces the observed sea ice-EASM linkage.  相似文献   

7.
This study examines the variability of the South America monsoon system (SAMS) over tropical South America (SA). The onset, end, and total rainfall during the summer monsoon are investigated using precipitation pentad estimates from the global precipitation climatology project (GPCP) 1979–2006. Likewise, the variability of SAMS characteristics is examined in ten Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) global coupled climate models in the twentieth century (1981–2000) and in a future scenario of global change (A1B) (2081–2100). It is shown that most IPCC models misrepresent the inter-tropical convergence zone and therefore do not capture the actual annual cycle of precipitation over the Amazon and northwest SA. Most models can correctly represent the spatiotemporal variability of the annual cycle of precipitation in central and eastern Brazil such as the correct phase of dry and wet seasons, onset dates, duration of rainy season and total accumulated precipitation during the summer monsoon for the twentieth century runs. Nevertheless, poor representation of the total monsoonal precipitation over the Amazon and northeast Brazil is observed in a large majority of the models. Overall, MIROC3.2-hires, MIROC3.2-medres and MRI-CGCM3.2.3 show the most realistic representation of SAMS’s characteristics such as onset, duration, total monsoonal precipitation, and its interannual variability. On the other hand, ECHAM5, GFDL-CM2.0 and GFDL-CM2.1 have the least realistic representation of the same characteristics. For the A1B scenario the most coherent feature observed in the IPCC models is a reduction in precipitation over central-eastern Brazil during the summer monsoon, comparatively with the present climate. The IPCC models do not indicate statistically significant changes in SAMS onset and demise dates for the same scenario.  相似文献   

8.
用一个耦合的全球格点大气环流模式-植被模式模拟中全新世的气候变化,模拟试验中考虑了地球轨道参数的变化,而其他强迫条件均取成现今值。结果表明,耦合的模式能够模拟出较今强的大尺度夏季风,特别是亚洲-非洲季风,而其他季节和区域的变化值一般都比较小。季风环流和季风降水都大幅度地增大了。结果还显示,耦合模式模拟的大尺度季风系统的变化同单纯大气环流模式模拟的结果非常相似,但是,在非洲北部季风区耦合模式模拟的降水和温度变化较单纯大气模式模拟的值要大,而且,耦合模式模拟的冬季降温值要比单纯大气模式模拟的结果小。  相似文献   

9.
Simulation of East Asian Summer Monsoon by Using an Improved AGCM   总被引:9,自引:3,他引:9  
The IAP 2-L AGCM is modified by introducing a set of climatological surface albedo data into the model for substituting the model’s original surface albedo parameterization. The comparison between the observations and the simulation results by the modified model shows that the general features of the East Asian summer monsoon can be well reproduced by the modified IAP 2-L AGCM. Especially for the simulation of monsoon precipitation, the modi-fied model can well reproduce not only the monthly mean features of the summer monsoon rainfall over East Asia, but also the stepwise advance and retreat of the East Asian summer monsoon rainbelt. Analysis results demonstrate that the good simulation of the monsoon rainfall is closely related to the reasonable simulation of the large scale gen-eral circulation over East Asian region, such as the western Pacific subtropical high, Asian monsoon low and the low level flows. The good performance of the modified model in the rainfall simulation shows its great potential to serve as a useful tool for the prediction of summer drought / flood events over East Asia.  相似文献   

10.
Ding  Zhaomin  Huang  Gang  Liu  Fei  Wu  Renguang  Wang  Pengfei 《Climate Dynamics》2021,56(11):3733-3747

In this paper, the response of global monsoon to changes in orbital forcing is investigated using a coupled atmosphere–ocean general circulation model with an emphasis on relative roles of precession and obliquity changes. When precession decreases, there are inter-hemispheric asymmetric responses in monsoonal precipitation, featuring a significant increase over most parts of the Northern Hemisphere (NH) monsoon regions and a decrease over the Southern Hemisphere (SH) monsoon regions. In contrast, when obliquity increases, global monsoon is enhanced except for the American monsoon. Dynamic effects (caused by changes in winds with humidity unchanged) dominate the monsoonal precipitation response to both precession and obliquity forcing, while thermodynamic effects (caused by changes in humidity with winds unchanged) is related to the northward extension of the North African summer monsoon. During minimum precession, the seasonal cycle of tropical precipitation is advanced with respect to the maximum precession. The rainfall increase in the transitional season (April-June in the NH and October-December in the SH) is dominated by the dynamic component. From an energetics perspective, the southward (northward) cross-equatorial energy transport during April-June (October-December) corresponds to a northward (southward) shift of tropical precipitation, which results in a seasonal advance in the migration of tropical precipitation. Nonetheless, there is no significant change in the seasonal cycle in response to obliquity forcing.

  相似文献   

11.
论东亚夏季风的特征、驱动力与年代际变化   总被引:9,自引:0,他引:9  
本文是以新的资料和研究结果对东亚夏季风的基本特征、驱动力和年代际变化所作的重新分析与评估。内容包括四个部分:(1)东亚夏季风的基本特征;(2)东亚夏季风的驱动力;(3)东亚夏季风的年代际变率与原因;(4)东亚夏季风与全球季风的关系。结果表明:东亚夏季风是亚洲夏季风的一个重要有机部分,主要由来源于热带的季风气流组成,并随季节由南向北呈阶段性推进,它是形成夏季东亚天气与气候的主要环流和降水系统。驱动夏季风的主要强迫有三部分:外部强迫、耦合强迫与内部变率,其中人类活动引起的外强迫(气候变暖、城市化、气溶胶增加等)是新出现的外强迫,它正不断改变着东亚夏季风的特征与演变趋势。海洋与陆面耦合强迫作为自然因子是引起东亚夏季风年际和年代际变化的主要原因,其中太平洋年代尺度振荡(PDO)与北大西洋多年代尺度振荡(AMO)的协同作用是造成东亚夏季风30~40年周期振荡的主要原因。1960年代以后,东亚夏季风经历了强—弱—强的年代际变化,相应的中国东部夏季降水型出现了“北多南少”向“南涝北旱”以及“北方渐增”的转变。最近的研究表明,上述东亚夏季风年代际变化与整个亚非夏季风系统的变化趋势是一致的。在本世纪主要受气候变暖的影响,夏季风雨带将持续北移,中国北方和西部地区出现持续性多雨的格局。最后本文指出,亚非夏季风系统相比于其他区域季风系统更适合全球季风的概念。  相似文献   

12.
East Asian summer monsoon simulation by a 20-km mesh AGCM   总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1  
East Asian summer monsoon climate simulated by a global 20-km mesh atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM) forced by the global sea surface temperature during the period 1979–1998 is investigated. In comparison with a lower resolution (180-km mesh) model experiment, it is revealed that the 20-km mesh AGCM shows the superiority in simulating orographic rainfall not only its location but also its amount. The Baiu frontal structure is also better simulated in the higher resolution model, which leads to stronger Baiu rainfall. The 20-km model also shows more intense extremes in precipitation. Interannual variability of June–August mean precipitation and seasonal march of the monsoon rain band are also investigated. This paper is a contribution to the AMIP-CMIP Diagnostic Sub-project on General Circulation Model Simulation of the East Asian Climate, coordinated by W.-C. Wang.  相似文献   

13.
Global monsoons in the mid-Holocene and oceanic feedback   总被引:10,自引:3,他引:10  
The response of the six major summer monsoon systems (the North American monsoon, the northern Africa monsoon, the Asia monsoon, the northern Australasian monsoon, the South America monsoon and the southern Africa monsoon) to mid-Holocene orbital forcing has been investigated using a coupled ocean–atmosphere general circulation model (FOAM), with the focus on the distinct roles of the direct insolation forcing and oceanic feedback. The simulation result is also found to compare well with the NCAR CSM. The direct effects of the change in insolation produce an enhancement of the Northern Hemisphere monsoons and a reduction of the Southern Hemisphere monsoons. Ocean feedbacks produce a further enhancement of the northern Africa monsoon and the North American monsoon. However, ocean feedbacks appear to weaken the Asia monsoon, although the overall effect (direct insolation forcing plus ocean feedback) remains a strengthened monsoon. The impact of ocean feedbacks on the South American and southern African monsoons is relatively small, and therefore these regions, especially the South America, experienced a reduced monsoon regime compared to present. However, there is a strong ocean feedback on the northern Australian monsoon that negates the direct effects of orbital changes and results in a strengthening of austral summer monsoon precipitation in this region. A new synthesis is made for mid-Holocene paleoenvironmental records and is compared with the model simulations. Overall, model simulations produce changes in regional climates that are generally consistent with paleoenvironmental observations.  相似文献   

14.
By using the ECMWF reanalysis daily data and daily precipitation data of 80 stations in Northeast China from 1961 to 2002, the impacts of moisture transport of East Asian summer monsoon on the summer precipitation anomaly in Northeast China, and the relationship between the variation of moisture budget and the establishment of East Asian summer monsoon in this region are studied. The results demonstrate that the moisture of summer precipitation in Northeast China mainly originates from subtropical, South China Sea, and South Asia monsoon areas. East China and its near coastal area are the convergent region of the monsoonal moisture currents and the transfer station for the currents continually moving northward. The monsoonal moisture transport, as an important link or bridge, connects the interaction between middle and low latitude systems. In summer half year, there is a moisture sink in Northeast China where the moisture influx is greater than outflux. The advance transport and accumulation of moisture are of special importance to pentad time scale summer precipitation. The onset, retreat, and intensity change of the monsoonal rainy season over Northeast China are mainly signified by the moisture input condition along the southern border of this area. The establishment of East Asian summer monsoon in this area ranges from about 10 July to 20 August and the onset in the west is earlier than that in the east. The latitude that the monsoon can reach is gradually northward from west to east, reaching 50°N within longitude 120°-135°E. In summer, the difference of air mass transport between summers with high and low rainfall mainly lies in whether more air masses originating from lower latitudes move northward through East China and its coastal areas, consequently transporting large amounts of hot and humid air into Northeast China.  相似文献   

15.
Based on experiments with the Community Earth System Model, version 1(Community Atmosphere Model, version 5)[CESM1(CAM5)], and an observational dataset, we found that CESM1-CAM5 is able to reproduce global monsoon(GM)features, including the patterns of monsoon precipitation and monsoon domains, the magnitude of GM precipitation(GMP,the local summer precipitation), GM area(GMA), and GM percentage(the ratio of the local summer precipitation to annual precipitation). Under the Paris Agreement temperature goals, the GM in CESM1-CAM5 displays the following changes:(1)The GMA is ambiguous under the 1.5℃ temperature goal and increases under the 2.0℃ temperature goal. The increase mainly results from a change in the monsoon percentage.(2) The GM, land monsoon and ocean monsoon precipitation all significantly increase under both the 1.5℃ and 2.0℃ goals. The increases are mainly due to the enhancement of humidity and evaporation.(3) The percentages of GM, land monsoon and ocean monsoon feature little change under the temperature goals.(4) The lengths of the GM, land monsoon and ocean monsoon are significantly prolonged under the temperature goals.The increase in precipitation during the monsoon withdrawal month mainly accounts for the prolonged monsoons. Regarding the differences between the 1.5℃ and 2.0℃ temperature goals, it is certain that the GMP displays significant discrepancies.In addition, a large-scale enhancement of ascending motion occurs over the southeastern Tibetan Plateau and South China under a warming climate, whereas other monsoon areas experience an overall decline in ascending motion. This leads to an extraordinary wetting over Asian monsoon areas.  相似文献   

16.
The sensitivity of the representation of the global monsoon annual cycle to horizontal resolution is compared in three AGCMs:the Met Office Unified Model-Global Atmosphere 3.0;the Meteorological Research Institute AGCM3;and the Global High Resolution AGCM from the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory.For each model,we use two horizontal resolution configurations for the period 1998–2008.Increasing resolution consistently improves simulated precipitation and low-level circulation of the annual mean and the first two annual cycle modes,as measured by the pattern correlation coefficient and equitable threat score.Improvements in simulating the summer monsoon onset and withdrawal are region-dependent.No consistent response to resolution is found in simulating summer monsoon retreat.Regionally,increased resolution reduces the positive bias in simulated annual mean precipitation,the two annual-cycle modes over the West African monsoon and Northwestern Pacific monsoon.An overestimation of the solstitial mode and an underestimation of the equinoctial asymmetric mode of the East Asian monsoon are reduced in all high-resolution configurations.Systematic errors exist in lower-resolution models for simulating the onset and withdrawal of the summer monsoon.Higher resolution models consistently improve the early summer monsoon onset over East Asia and West Africa,but substantial differences exist in the responses over the Indian monsoon region,where biases differ across the three low-resolution AGCMs.This study demonstrates the importance of a multi-model comparison when examining the added value of resolution and the importance of model physical parameterizations for simulation of the Indian monsoon.  相似文献   

17.
In this paper, a 5-level spectral AGCM is used to examine the sensitivity of simulated East Asian summer monsoon circulation and rainfall to cumulus parameterization schemes. From the simulated results of East Asian monsoon circulations and rainfalls during the summers of 1987 and 1995, it is shown that the Kuo’s convective parameterization scheme is more suitable for the numerical simulation of East Asian summer monsoon rainfall and circulation. This may be due to that the cumulus in the rainfall system is not strong in the East Asian monsoon region. This paper is supported by the National Key Progranmme “96-908”.  相似文献   

18.
Results from nine coupled ocean-atmosphere simulations have been used to investigate changes in the relationship between the variability of monsoon precipitation over western Africa and tropical sea surface temperatures (SSTs) between the mid-Holocene and the present day. Although the influence of tropical SSTs on the African monsoon is generally overestimated in the control simulations, the models reproduce aspects of the observed modes of variability. Thus, most models reproduce the observed negative correlation between western Sahelian precipitation and SST anomalies in the eastern tropical Pacific, and many of them capture the positive correlation between SST anomalies in the eastern tropical Atlantic and precipitation over the Guinea coastal region. Although the response of individual model to the change in orbital forcing between 6 ka and present differs somewhat, eight of the models show that the strength of the teleconnection between SSTs in the eastern tropical Pacific and Sahelian precipitation is weaker in the mid-Holocene. Some of the models imply that this weakening was associated with a shift towards longer time periods (from 3–5 years in the control simulations toward 4–10 years in the mid-Holocene simulations). The simulated reduction in the teleconnection between eastern tropical Pacific SSTs and Sahelian precipitation appears to be primarily related to a reduction in the atmospheric circulation bridge between the Pacific and West Africa but, depending on the model, other mechanisms such as increased importance of other modes of tropical ocean variability or increased local recycling of monsoonal precipitation can also play a role.  相似文献   

19.
The impact of ocean–atmosphere coupling on the simulation and prediction of the boreal summer intraseasonal oscillation (ISO) has been investigated by diagnosing 22-year retrospective forecasts using the Seoul National University coupled general circulation model (CGCM) and its atmospheric GCM (AGCM) forced with SSTs derived from the CGCM. Numerous studies have shown that the ocean–atmosphere coupling has a significant effect on the improvement of ISO simulation and prediction. Contrary to previous studies, this study shows similar results between CGCM and AGCM, not only in regard to the ISO simulation characteristics but also the predictability. The similarities between CGCM and AGCM include (1) the ISO intensity over the entire Asian-monsoon region; (2) the spatiotemporal evolution of the northward propagating ISO (NPISO); and (3) the potential and practical predictability. A notable difference between CGCM and AGCM is the phase relationship between precipitation and SST anomalies. The CGCM and observation exhibits a near-quadrature relationship between precipitation and SST, with the former lagging about two pentads. The AGCM shows a less realistic phase relationship. The similar structure and propagation characteristics of ISO between the CGCM and AGCM suggest that the internal atmospheric dynamics could be more essential to the ISO than the ocean–atmosphere interaction over the Indian monsoon region.  相似文献   

20.
SimulationoftheAsianMonsoonbyIAPAGCMCoupledwithanAdvancedLandSurfaceModel(IAP94)ZengQingcun(曾庆存),DaiYongjiu(戴永久)andXueFeng(薛峰...  相似文献   

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