Uncertainties in Stock Assessment and the Precautionary Management Suggestions for the Anchovy （Engraulisjaponicus） Stock in the Yellow Sea

Anchovy(Engraulis japonicus) is an abundant fish species in the Yellow Sea,and its natural stock is decreasing rapidly in recent years. Based on the stock-recruitment(SR) data from 1987 to 2002 published in Zhao et al.(2003),the criterion BIC(Bayesian Information Criterion) is applied to selecting a suitable model from six normal and lognormal error structured SR statisti-cal models,the age-structured model is used to calculate the biological reference points(BRPs),and the precision of the SR parame-ters and BRPs are calculated using bootstrap method. The results indicate that the anchovy fishery resource in the Yellow Sea is in an over-fished state. The precaution management principle requires that the fishery should be closed immediately.     

Future projection of East China Sea temperature by dynamic downscaling of the IPCC_AR4 CCSM3 model result

Future temperature distributions of the marginal Chinese seas are studied by dynamic downscaling of global CCSM3 IPCC_AR4 scenario runs.Different forcing fields from 2080-2099 Special Report on Emissions Scenarios(SRES) B1,A1,and A2 to 1980-1999 20C3M are averaged and superimposed on CORE2 and SODA2.2.4 data to force high-resolution regional future simulations using the Regional Ocean Modeling System(ROMS).Volume transport increments in downscaling simulation support the CCSM3 result that with a weakening subtropical gyre circulation,the Kuroshio Current in the East China Sea(ECS) is possibly strengthened under the global warming scheme.This mostly relates to local wind change,whereby the summer monsoon is strengthened and winter monsoon weakened.Future temperature fluxes and their seasonal variations are larger than in the CCSM3 result.Downscaling 100 years’ temperature increments are comparable to the CCSM3,with a minimum in B1 scenario of 1.2-2.0°C and a maximum in A2 scenario of 2.5-4.5°C.More detailed temperature distributions are shown in the downscaling simulation.Larger increments are in the Bohai Sea and middle Yellow Sea,and smaller increments near the southeast coast of China,west coast of Korea,and southern ECS.There is a reduction of advective heat north of Taiwan Island and west of Tsushima in summer,and along the southern part of the Yellow Sea warm current in winter.There is enhancement of advective heat in the northern Yellow Sea in winter,related to the delicate temperature increment distribution.At 50 meter depth,the Yellow Sea cold water mass is destroyed.Our simulations suggest that in the formation season of the cold water mass,regional temperature is higher in the future and the water remains at the bottom until next summer.In summer,the mixed layer is deeper,making it much easier for the strengthened surface heat flux to penetrate to the bottom of this water.     

Monthly variation in the fat content of anchovy (Engraulis japonicus) in the Yellow Sea: implications for acoustic abundance estimation

Anchovy is a key species in the Yellow Sea ecosystem. An accurate estimate of anchovy abundance is vital for the management of the anchovy stock and measurement of the ecosystem response to changes in anchovy abundance. However, the acoustic fish abundance estimate may be biased by 30%?C40% if the fat-content induced target strength variation is not taken into account. We measured the monthly variation in the fat content of anchovy (Engraulis japonicus) in the Yellow Sea, and evaluated the potential effect of variation in fat content on the acoustic assessment of anchovy abundance. The fat content of anchovy varied seasonally, with two maxima and two minima in a year. The highest fat content (14.75%) was measured in the pre-spawning period in May, and the lowest fat content (2.48%) was measured during the post-spawning period in October. Fat content appeared to correlate with water content, but not body size. Assuming that the target strength is decreased by 0.2dB for every 1% increase in fat content, the seasonal difference in the target strength of anchovy may be as high as 2.45 dB. Given this, the acoustic abundance estimate may be biased by between 43% and 76%. Our results highlight the need for more information on the changes in fat content of fishes whose abundance is estimated by acoustic surveys.     

Last 150-year variability in Japanese anchovy (Engraulis japonicus) abundance based on the anaerobic sediments of the Yellow Sea Basin in the western North Pacific

Relatively short historical catch records show that anchovy populations have exhibited large variability over multi-decadal timescales. In order to understand the driving factors (anthropogenic and/or natural) of such variability, it is essential to develop long-term time series of the population prior to the occurrence of notable anthropogenic impact. Well-preserved fish scales in the sediments are regarded as useful indicators reflecting the fluctuations of fish populations over the last centuries. This study aims to validate the anchovy scale deposition rate as a proxy of local anchovy biomass in the Yellow Sea adjoining the western North Pacific. Our reconstructed results indicated that over the last 150 years, the population size of anchovy in the Yellow Sea has exhibited great fluctuations with periodicity of around 50 years, and the pattern of current recovery and collapse is similar to that of historical records. The pattern of large-scale population synchrony with remote ocean basins provides further evidence proving that fish population dynamics are strongly affected by global and basin-scale oceanic/climatic variability.     

Using geochemistry of rare earth elements to indicate sediment provenance of sand ridges in southwestern Yellow Sea

The Jianggang Harbour-centered radial sand ridge (RSR) is the largest sand body in the Yellow Sea. Its formation and evolution are of interest for scientists of various fields; however, the sediment provenance is uncertain. In this study, rare earth element (REE) geochemical compositions of the RSR sediments together with their potential sources are investigated to identify the provenance of the RSR sediments. The typical parameters ((La/Yb)N, (La/Sm)N and (Gd/Yb)N) as well as the upper continental crust-normalized patterns of REEs can only be associated with source rocks, and thus can be used as effective tracers for the origin and sources of sediments. However, the REE contents of sediments are affected by many factors, such as particle sorting and chemical weathering. Onshore RSR sediments are different in REE geochemical composition from offshore RSR sediments to some extent, suggesting that not all of the offshore RSR sediments have the same sources as the onshore RSR sediments. Meanwhile, the sediments adjacent to the northeast of Cheju Island and at Lian Island near the Lianyun Harbour were not the source of the RSR sediments due to their distinctive REE patterns, δEu, (La/Yb)N, (Gd/Yb)N and (La/Sm)N. The Korean river sediments could be dispersed to the Jiangsu Coast slightly impacting the fine fractions of the RSR sediments, particularly the offshore RSR sediments. Additionally, geochemical comparisons show that the modern Yellow River was responsible for the onshore RSR sediments, whereas the sediment loads from the Yangtze River could serve as a major contributor to the RSR, particularly the offshore RSR. In addition, the offshore RSR could also be partly fed by an unknown source due to some high values of (La/Yb)N, (La/Sm)N and La contents differing from those of the Chinese and Korean river sediments.     

Coupling of an individual-based model of anchovy with lower trophic level and hydrodynamic models

Anchovy (Engraulis japonicus), a small pelagic fish and food of other economic fishes, is a key species in the Yellow Sea ecosystem. Understanding the mechanisms of its recruitment and biomass variation is important for the prediction and management of fishery resources. Coupled with a hydrodynamic model (POM) and a lower trophic level ecosystem model (NEMURO), an individual-based model of anchovy is developed to study the influence of physical environment on anchovy’s biomass variation. Seasonal variations of circulation, water temperature and mix-layer depth from POM are used as external forcing for NEMURO and the anchovy model. Biomasses of large zooplankton and predatory zooplankton which anchovy feeds on are output from NEMURO and are controlled by the consumption of anchovy on them. Survival fitness theory related to temperature and food is used to determine the swimming action of anchovy in the model. The simulation results agree well with observations and elucidate the influence of temperature in over-wintering migration and food in feeding migration.     

Effects of spatio-temporal and environmental factors on distribution and abundance of wintering anchovy Engraulis japonicus in central and southern Yellow Sea

We investigated the spatio-temporal and environmental factors that affect the distribution and abundance of wintering anchovy and quantifi es the infl uences of these factors. Generalized additive models(GAMs) were developed to examine the variation in species distribution and abundance with a set of spatiotemporal and oceanographic factors, using data collected by bottom trawl surveys and remote sensing in the central and southern Yellow Sea during 2000–2011. The fi nal model accounted for 28.21% and 41.03% of the variance in anchovy distribution and abundance, respectively. The results of a two-step GAM showed that hour, longitude, latitude, temperature gradient(TGR), and chlorophyll a(Chl- a) concentration best explained the anchovy distribution(presence/absence) and that a model including year, longitude, latitude, depth, sea surface temperature(SST), and TGR best described anchovy abundance(given presence). Longitude and latitude were the most important factors affecting both distribution and abundance, but the area of high abundance tended to be east and south of the area where anchovy were most likely to be present. Hour had a signifi cant effect on distribution, but year was more important for anchovy abundance, indicating that the anchovy catch ratio varied across the day but abundance had an apparent interannual variation. With respect to environmental factors, TGR and Chl- a concentration had effects on distribution, while depth, SST, and TGR affected abundance. Changes in SST between two successive years or between any year and the 2000–2011 mean were not associated with changes in anchovy distribution or abundance. This fi nding indicated that short- and long-term water temperature changes during 2000–2011 were not of suffi cient magnitude to give rise to variation in wintering anchovy distribution or abundance in the study area. The results of this study have important implications for fi sheries management.     

Community structure changes of macrobenthos in the South Yellow Sea

The ecological environment in the Yellow Sea has changed greatly from the 1950s to 1990s and this has had significant impact on marine organisms. In this study, data on soft-sediment macrobenthos occurring in depths from 25 m to 81 m in the South Yellow Sea were used to compare changes in community structure. The agglomerative classification (CLUSTER) and multidimensional scaling (MDS) methods were applied. Five communities were recognized by cluster analysis: 1. The Yellow Sea Cold Water Mass community dominated by cold water species, which changed slightly in species composition since the 1950s; 2. The mixed community with the coexistence of cold water species and warm water species, as had been reported previously; 3. The polychaete-dominated eurythermal community in which the composition changed considerably as some dominant species disappeared or decreased; 4. The Changjiang (Yangtze) River Estuarine community, with some typical estuarine species; 5. The community affected by the Yellow Sea Warm Current. The greatest change occurred in the coastal area, which indicated that the change may be caused by human activities. Macrobenthos in the central region remained almost unchanged, particularly the cold water species shielded by the Yellow Sea Cold Water Mass. The depth, temperature and median grain size of sediments were important factors affecting the distributions of macrobenthos in the South Yellow Sea.     

THE N／P RATIO IN THE NORTHERN SOUTH YELLOW SEA IN AUTUMN

Study of horizontal and vertical distributions of the N/P(nitrogen versus phosphate)atom ratio in the northem South Yellow Sea showed that the ratio varied greatly in upper waters of the in-vestigated area and was always much greater than the theoretical Redfield ratio of 16:1 found below the thermocline zone.It was in general higher near the coast and lower in the central part.With increasing depth,the ratio became smaller and smaller.This distribution pattem is attributed to :1)the anthropo-genic influence of the surface N and P which makes the N/P ratio differ from the normal value;2)the easy adsorption of P on particles hinders P trasport to the central part;3)below the thermocline zone,the N and P mainly come from the remineralization of the sedimented phytoplankton residues which have almost the theoretical Redfield value and;4)the existence of the Yellow Sea Bottom Cold Water which inhibits the vertical exchange of the water.     

Interpretation of sea surface wind interannual vector EOFs over the China seas

Using interpolation and averaging methods, we analyzed the sea surface wind data obtained from December 1992 to November 2008 by the scatterometers ERS-1, ERS-2, and QuikSCAT in the area of 2°N–39 °N, 105°E–130°E, and we reported the monthly mean distributions of the sea surface wind field. A vector empirical orthogonal function (VEOF) method was employed to study the data and three temporal and spatial patterns were obtained. The first interannual VEOF accounts for 26% of the interannual variance and displays the interannual variability of the East Asian monsoon. The second interannual VEOF accounts for 21% of the variance and reflects the response of China sea winds to El Niño events. The temporal mode of VEOF-2 is in good agreement with the curve of the Niño 3.4 index with a four-month lag. The spatial mode of VEOF-2 indicates that four months after an El Niño event, the southwesterly anomalous winds over the northern South China Sea, the East China Sea, the Yellow Sea, and the Bohai Sea can weaken the prevailing winds in winter, and can strengthen the prevailing winds in summer. The third interannual VEOF accounts for 10% of the variance and also reflects the influence of the ENSO events to China Sea winds. The temporal mode of VEOF-3 is similar to the curve of the Southern Oscillation Index. The spatial mode of VEOF-3 shows that the northeasterly anomalous winds over the South China Sea and the southern part of the East China Sea can weaken the prevailing winds, and southwesterly anomalous winds over the northern part of the East China Sea, the Yellow Sea, and the Bohai Sea can strengthen the prevailing winds when El Niño occurs in winter. If El Niño happens in summer, the reverse is true.     

Long-term statistics of extreme tsunami height at Crescent City

Historically, Crescent City is one of the most vulnerable communities impacted by tsunamis along the west coast of the United States, largely attributed to its offshore geography. Trans-ocean tsunamis usually produce large wave runup at Crescent Harbor resulting in catastrophic damages, property loss and human death. How to determine the return values of tsunami height using relatively short-term observation data is of great significance to assess the tsunami hazards and improve engineering design along the coast of Crescent City. In the present study, the extreme tsunami heights observed along the coast of Crescent City from 1938 to 2015 are fitted using six different probabilistic distributions, namely, the Gumbel distribution, the Weibull distribution, the maximum entropy distribution, the lognormal distribution, the generalized extreme value distribution and the generalized Pareto distribution. The maximum likelihood method is applied to estimate the parameters of all above distributions. Both Kolmogorov-Smirnov test and root mean square error method are utilized for goodness-of-fit test and the better fitting distribution is selected. Assuming that the occurrence frequency of tsunami in each year follows the Poisson distribution, the Poisson compound extreme value distribution can be used to fit the annual maximum tsunami amplitude, and then the point and interval estimations of return tsunami heights are calculated for structural design. The results show that the Poisson compound extreme value distribution fits tsunami heights very well and is suitable to determine the return tsunami heights for coastal disaster prevention.     

ANALYSIS OF THE STRATIFICATION FEATURES OF THE YELLOW SEA AND THE LOCATION OF ITS GENERAL SHELF FRONT IN THE WARM HALF-YEAR

A stratification parameter ,defined as theamount of mechanical energy required to bring about vertical mixing, has been calculated for theYellow Sea using available data over the past ten years.T he monthly distributions of Log are obtained to explain the features of the Yellow Sea stratification.Fronts of the shallow shelf sea are often inseparably related with its stratifications. The front of the Yellow Sea in the warm half-year is generated in May and disappears in November. The shelf front moves shoreward and becomes strong in the heating season, but becomes weak in the cooling season upon return.     

Current observations in the southern Yellow Sea in summer

Current data from three moored Acoustic Doppler Profilers (ADPs) deployed in the southern Yellow Sea at sites A (1-24.17°E, 34.82°N), B (122.82°E, 35.65°N) in summer 2001 and site C (120.85°E, 34.99°N) in summer 2003 were analyzed in this paper. Features of the tidal and residual currents were studied with rotary spectral and cross-spectral methods. Main achievements were as follows: 1) Tides dominated the currents. At sites A and B, the semidiurnal tidal current was basically homogeneous in the whole depth, taking a clockwise rotation at site A, and near-rectilinear counterclockwise rotation at site B; while the diurnal tidal current was strong and clockwise near the surface, but decreased and turned counterclockwise with depth; at site C, semidiurnal tidal current dominated and diurnal current took the second, both of which were counterclockwise and vertically homogeneous. Inertial motion contributed to the clockwise component of diurnal fluctuations; 2) The 3-5d fluctuation of residual current w     

Interannual variability of the southern Yellow Sea Cold Water Mass

Temperature data collected in the sections of 34°N, 35°N and 36°N in August from 1975 through 2003 were analyzed using Empirical Orthogonal Function (EOF) to investigate interannual variability of the southern Yellow Sea Cold Water Mass (YSCWM). The first mode (EOF1) reveals variations of basin-wide thermocline depth, which is mainly caused by surface heating. The second mode (EOF2) presents fluctuations of vertical circulation, resulting mainly from interannual variability of cold front intensity. In addition, it is found that the upward extent of upwelling in the cold front is basically determined by wind stress curl and the zonal position of the warm water center in the southern Yellow Sea is correlated with spatial difference of net heat flux.     

Monitoring Spatio-temporal Variance of an Extreme Heat Event Using Multiple-source Remote Sensing Data

Extreme heat events have serious effects on human daily life. Accurately capturing the dynamic variance of extreme high-temperature distributions in a timely manner is the basis for analyzing the potential impacts of extreme heat, thereby informing risk prevention strategies. This paper demonstrates the potential application of multiple source remote sensing data in mapping and monitoring the extreme heat events that occurred on Aug. 8, 2013 in Jiangsu Province, China. In combination with MODIS products, the thermal sharpening(Ts HARP) method and a binary linear model are compared to downscale the original daytime FengY un 2 F(FY-2 F) land surface temperature(LST) imagery, with a temporal resolution of 60 min, from 5 km to 1 km. Using the meteorological measurement data from Nanjing station as the reference, the research then estimates the instantaneous air temperature by using an iterative computation based on the Surface Energy Balance Algorithm for Land(SEBAL), which is used to analyze the spatio-temporal air temperature variance. The results show that the root mean square error(RMSE) of the LST downscaled from the binary linear model is 1.30℃ compared to the synchronous MODIS LST, and on this basis the estimated air temperature has the RMSE of 1.78℃. The spatial and temporal distribution of air temperature variance at each geographical location from 06:30 to 18:30 can be accurately determined, and indicates that the high temperature gradually increases and expands from the city center. For the spatial distribution, the air temperature and the defined scorching temperature proportion index increase from northern to middle, to southern part of Jiangsu, and are slightly lower in the eastern area near the Yellow Sea. In terms of temporal characteristics, the percentage of area with air temperature above 37℃ in each city increase with time after 10:30 and reach the peak value at 14:30 or 15:30. Then, they decrease gradually, and the rising and falling trends become smaller from the southern cities to the northern regions. Moreover, there is a distinct positive relationship between the percentage of area above 37℃ and the population density. The above results show that the spatio-temporal distributions of heat waves and their influencing factors can be determined by combining multiple sources of remotely sensed image data.     

Age,growth,and mortality rate of the yellow goosefish Lophius litulon(Jordan,1902) in the Yellow Sea

With the decline in the most fisheries resources in the Yellow Sea,the yellow goosefish Lophius litulon has increased in commercial and ecological importance in recent years.We studied the length distribution,length-weight relationship,age composition,growth pattern,mortality,and exploitation rates of the yellow goosefish in the Yellow Sea.Total length(TL) of females and males ranged from 173 to582 mm and 178 to 500 mm,respectively.The length-weight relationships were also estimated for females and males.Age classes from 2 to 4 years predominated in the samples.The von Bertalanffy growth function(VB GF),estimated based on non-linear least-squares methodology,showed significant differences between sexes.Females attained a greater estimated asymptotic total length(765 mm TL) compared to males(579 mm TL).The VBGF did not differ significantly between stocks of the northern Yellow Sea and the southern Yellow Sea.Estimated natural instantaneous mortality rate(M) ranged from 0.25/a to 0.33/abased on four age-and length-based methods.Total instantaneous mortality rate(Z) of total samples calculated by the age-based catch curve method was 0.591/a and the average fishing mortality(F) was 0.30/a.Estimated exploitation rate(E) was approximately 0.5,indicating that the population of L.litulon in the Yellow Sea may be sustainable.These results provide a reference for the present status of L.litulon and information for the management.     

Observational evidence of the Yellow Sea warm current

The Yellow Sea Warm Current (YSWC) is one of the principal currents in the Yellow Sea in winter. Former examinations on current activity in the Yellow Sea have not observed a stable YSWC because of the positioning of current meters. To further understand the YSWC, a research cruise in the southern Yellow Sea was carried out in the winter of 2006/2007. Five moorings with bottom-mounted acoustic Doppler current profilers (ADCP) were deployed on the western side of the central trough of the Yellow Sea. The existence and distributional features of the YSWC were studied by analyzing three ADCP moorings in the path of the YSWC in conjunction with conductivity-temperature-depth (CTD) data over the observed area in the southern Yellow Sea. The results show the following. (1) The upper layer of the YSWC is strongly influenced by winter cold surge; its direction and speed often vary along a south-north axis when strong cold surges arrive from the north. (2) The YSWC near the bottom layer is a stable northwest flowing current with a speed of 4 to 10 cm/s. By combining the analyses of the CTD data, we speculate that the core of the YSWC may lie near the bottom. (3) On a monthly average timescale, the YSWC is stably oriented with northward flow from the sea surface to the sea floor.     

Numerical Study of Water and Suspended Matter Exchange Between the Yellow Sea and the East China Sea

INTRODUCTIONTheYellowSeaandtheEastChinaSea (ECS)aremarginalseasofthenorthwestPacificandhaveexpansivecontinentalshelves .TheuniqueandstrikingfeaturesoftheYellowSeaandtheECSarethattheyhavestrongtidalcurrent;aresubjecttostrongmonsooninfluence ;andreceiveinflowfromthebiggestriverinChina ,theChangjiangRiver ;andthatthefamouswesternboundarycurrent,theKuroshio ,passesthroughtheECS ,withitsbranchesintrudingupwardintothecontinentalshelfareas.Generallyspeaking ,thewaterexchangecapacityofthe…     

Observation of currents in the southern Yellow Sea in the summers of 2001 and 2003

Long term current observations in the southern Yellow Sea are very scarce because of the intense fishing and trawling activities. Most of the previous studies on tides and circulation were not rigorously validated with direct current measurements. In this study, tidal and sub-tidal currents were examined using current profiles from three bottom-moored Sontek Acoustic Doppler Profilers （ADPs） deployed in the southern Yellow Sea in the summers of 2001 and 2003. The measured current time series were dominated by tidal currents. The maximum velocities were between 40-80 cm s^-1 at the mooring stations. The M2 current was the dominant primary tidal constituent, while the MS4 and M4 components produced the most significant shallow water tidal currents with much weaker amplitudes. The measured mean sub-tidal velocities were less than 5 cmsl. The mean flows in the lower layer implied that an anti-cyclonic circulation pattern might exist in the deeper central Yellow Sea. However, the previously expected cyclonic circulation pattern in the upper layer was not clearly shown by the observations.     

A THEORETICAL SOLUTION FOR THE THERMOHALINE CIRCULATION IN THE SOUTHERN YELLOW SEA

Application of the thermocline equations in the thermocline areas and the boundary layer and the asymptotic matching techniques in each boundary in order to satisfy the surface and bottom conditions yielded a theoretical 2- D solution of the vertical thermohaline circulation of the Southern Yellow Sea in summer when the quasi-statically varying seasonal thermocline (density layer) is the background density structure , the deviations from which cause the secondary vertical circulation . The results show that the thermocline can be considered as an internal boundary or a barrier to the vertical heat advection so that in the central areas of the Southern Yellow Sea or the center of the Yellow Sea Cold Water Mass(YCWM)> the downwelling in the upper layer and upwelling in the lower or bottom layer form a double cell vertical circulation . The solution is similar to Hu's conceptual model ( 1986) in the central areas of the YCWM and is consistent with observed temperature . salinity and dissolved oxygen distri